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Armed conflict, 1946−2010

Lotta Themnér and Peter Wallensteen
Journal of Peace Research 2011 48: 525
DOI: 10.1177/0022343311415302

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 jour nal of

Special Data Feature

peace
R E S E A R C H

Journal of Peace Research

48(4) 525–536
Armed conflict, 1946–2010 ª The Author(s) 2011
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DOI: 10.1177/0022343311415302
jpr.sagepub.com
Lotta Themnér1 & Peter Wallensteen
Uppsala Conflict Data Program

Abstract
In 2010, UCDP recorded 30 active armed conflicts (i.e. with a minimum of 25 battle-related deaths). This is a
substantial reduction in relation to the 36 conflicts registered for 2009. A drop of this magnitude has only been
reported four times previously in the post-1946 period. However, only in two of these instances was this part of a
general downward trend. Thus no major inferences should be drawn, except perhaps that the reduction in con-
flicts in Africa seems to be part of a trend. At 30 in 2010, the number of active conflicts is at its lowest level since
2003. Furthermore, the number of wars (1,000 or more battle-related deaths) declined from six in 2009 to four
in 2010. The most intense war in terms of fatalities was in Afghanistan. Eight of the armed conflicts listed for
2009 were not active in 2010, but during the year two new conflicts erupted – Mauritania and Tajikistan – both
involving rebel groups that had previously fought in neighbouring countries. Only two peace agreements were
concluded during the year. While this is one more than 2009, it is decidedly below the annual average for the
post-Cold War period.

Keywords
conflict, data, dyad, peace agreement, war

In 2010, 30 armed conflicts were active in 25 locations.2
This constitutes a significant drop from the 36 conflicts
recorded for 2009 (Harbom & Wallensteen, 2010) and
1 1993 and 1995. Only in one of these cases (1995) was
Lotta Themnér has previously published under the name Lotta
Harbom.
2
For an intrastate conflict, the location is a country. For an interstate
conflict, it is two or more countries. Several countries (notably India
and Myanmar) have several separate conflicts going on at the same
time, fought over different incompatibilities, which is why the
number of conflicts exceeds the number of locations. It should also
be noted that the names of the conflicts do not necessarily indicate
where the actual fighting takes place. Their names reflect the
location of the incompatibility – which government it is that is
being disputed, or in which country a disputed territory is located.
For example, in the case of Rwanda, the incompatibility concerns
governmental power in Rwanda, but no fighting took place in this
country in 2010. Instead, all conflict activity was located in
neighbouring DRC (Democratic Republic of Congo), where the
Rwandan rebel group FDLR (Forces Democratiques de Liberation
du Rwanda: Democratic Liberation Forces of Rwanda) has its bases.
the number of armed conflicts is now lower than any
year since 2003 and before that since the mid-1970s
(Gleditsch et al., 2002). A decline of this magnitude has
occurred at individual occasions, notably in 1968, 1988,
this followed by a further reduction the following year.
Sometimes such fluctuations depend on the fact that
many conflicts are limited in scale and hover around the
threshold for inclusion of 25 battle deaths in a calendar
year. Thus, it is not surprising to see some changes from
one year to the next. However, the long-term decline in
the number of conflicts since the end of the Cold War is
still evident, as can be seen in Figure 1. Going back to
the end of the Second World War, 246 conflicts have
been active in 151 locations worldwide. The annual
Corresponding author:
lotta.themner@pcr.uu.se

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526 journal of PEACE RESEARCH 48(4)

60

50

40

30

20

10

0
1946
1948
1950
1952
1954
1956
1958
1960
1962
1964
1966
1968
1970
1972
1974
1976
1978
1980
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
Extrasystemic Interstate Internationalized intrastate Intrastate

Figure 1. Number of armed conflicts by type, 1946–2010

incidence of conflict and conflict dyads3 since 1989 is has only been lower in 1957 (three wars). The conflict
recorded in Tables I and II. Figure 1 shows the trend with the highest number of fatalities in 2010 was fought
in the number of armed conflicts since 1946. in Afghanistan, followed by the conflicts in Pakistan,
Also the dyadic dimension of armed conflict shows a Somalia and Iraq. The intensity of the conflict between
clear decline in 2010. UCDP recorded 37 active dyads in the Afghan government and its allies on the one side and
the 2010 conflicts, which is eight fewer than in 2009. In the Taliban on the other has been on the rise over the past
six of the conflicts there were two active dyads and in one decade and in 2010 it reached its highest level to date,
conflict there were three conflict dyads, with the mean with more than 6,000 battle-related deaths. Despite an
number of dyads per conflict being 1.2. The number increase in the number of international troops deployed
of conflict dyads measures the degree of fragmentation of in the country, the Taliban seemed to grow stronger, man-
a particular conflict, meaning that there are several actors aging to gain a foothold in the northern part of the coun-
pursuing similar overall goals. While there has been a clear try, in addition to its southern and eastern strongholds.
upward trend in average conflict dyads since the early The two conflicts that reached the intensity of war in
1980s (Harbom, Melander & Wallensteen, 2008), the 2009, but not in 2010, were Rwanda and Sri Lanka
decline in 2010 could signal a change in this trend of (Eelam). In both cases, this was related to government
conflict fragmentation. It is too early to draw any theo- offensives that weakened or, as in the case of Sri Lanka,
retical or policy implications from this, although many even eliminated the armed opposition forces. In the first
observers argue that fewer actors may help to simplify a case, 2010 saw a dramatic de-escalation of fighting from
negotiations process (e.g. Svensson & Wallensteen, 2010). the previous year. In 2009, fighting between FDLR
When considering conflict intensity, four armed con- (Forces Democratiques de Libération du Rwanda: Dem-
flicts reached the intensity of war (at least 1,000 battle- ocratic Liberation Forces of Rwanda) and the Rwandan
related deaths), down by two from 2009. The number government, supported by troops from the Democratic
of wars has oscillated over time, with a peak of 16 in Republic of Congo (DRC), was at its highest level since
1988 and 1990. Since World War II, the number of wars the group launched its armed struggle in 1997.4 FDLR,

3 4
A dyad is defined as a pair of warring parties. In interstate conflicts, Note that the group was formed as PALIR (Party for the Liberation
these warring parties are governments of states, whereas in intrastate of Rwanda: Peuple en armes pour la libération du Rwanda). In May
conflicts, one is the government of a state and the other is a rebel 2000, parts of PALIR, together with exiled Rwandan politicians,
group. For more information about the dyadic dimension of armed created the politico-military organisation FDLR and on 30 Septem-
conflict, see Harbom, Melander & Wallensteen (2008). The ber the group formally dissolved itself into FDLR, accepting the polit-
UCDP Dyadic Dataset can be downloaded from http:// ical leadership of FDLR. In line with UCDP coding rules, FDLR is
www.pcr.uu.se/research/ucdp/datasets/. seen as the continuation of PALIR.

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 Table I. Armed conflicts and conflict locations, 1989–2010

Level
Themnér & Wallensteen

of conflict 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 1989–2010a
Minor 30 34 38 41 35 36 34 33 32 27 26 26 26 26 25 25 27 28 31 32 30 26 86
War 13 16 13 12 10 11 7 8 7 13 13 11 10 6 5 7 5 5 4 5 6 4 47
All conflicts 43 50 51 53 45 47 41 41 39 40 39 37 36 32 30 32 32 33 35 37 36 30 133
All dyads 62 67 66 64 57 57 47 50 54 54 51 50 47 45 41 44 38 46 44 48 45 37 269
All locations 36 37 38 39 32 34 31 31 29 32 31 28 29 24 23 24 23 24 25 27 27 25 80
a
At the highest level recorded.

Table II. Armed conflicts by region, 1989–2010a

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Region 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 1989–2010
Europe 2 3 7 8 9 5 5 1 0 2 3 1 2 1 1 2 2 1 2 2 1 1 23
Middle East 4 7 8 7 7 6 6 7 4 3 3 3 3 2 3 3 5 5 4 4 5 5 14
Asia 16 21 15 20 15 16 16 18 19 16 15 17 14 12 15 14 16 15 14 15 15 12 39
Africa 12 13 16 14 11 16 10 12 14 17 16 15 15 15 10 10 7 10 12 13 12 9 42
Americas 9 6 5 4 3 4 4 3 2 2 2 1 2 2 1 3 2 2 3 3 3 3 15
All conflicts 43 50 51 53 45 47 41 41 39 40 39 37 36 32 30 32 32 33 35 37 36 30 133
a
For data back to 1946, see http://www.pcr.uu.se/research/UCDP/data_and_publications/datasets.htm or http://www.prio.no/cscw/ArmedConflict.
527
528
based in Eastern Congo, was challenged by a joint Rwan-
dan and Congolese military offensive code-named Oper-
ation Umoja Wetu (‘our unity’), which significantly
weakened the group. This was followed in March by a
second large-scale offensive – Kimia II – carried out by
the Congolese army, supported by the UN Organization
Mission in the DRC (MONUC). While the year 2010
saw the launching of yet another operation – Amani Leo
(‘peace today’) – it did not result in as heavy fighting as
the previous offensives. In Sri Lanka, the long-time
rebels of the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE)
were completely defeated by government forces at the
end of May 2009, and there were no indications of revi-
val of the rebel group in 2010.
Sri Lanka was the conflict with the most fatalities in
2009. The ending of that conflict and the fact that there
were only four wars in 2010 suggests that the total num-
ber of battle-related fatalities was significantly lower in
2010 than in 2009. Although the war in Afghanistan
escalated, it still did not match the reduction in fatalities
elsewhere. Thus, the trend of reduced battle deaths in
armed conflict, previously described by Lacina & Gle-
ditsch (2005), continued in 2010, with the UCDP
battle-related deaths dataset showing a decrease of more
than 10,000 fatalities compared with 2009.5
As in 2009, all active conflicts in 2010 were internal.
Interstate conflicts – while always fewer in number than
intrastate conflicts – have become an increasingly rare
phenomenon since the early 1990s, and especially since
2004.6 Between the years 2004 and 2010, only one
minor interstate conflict was recorded, between Djibouti
and Eritrea in 2008. Of the 30 active conflicts, nine were
internationalized, meaning that they saw international
involvement with troop support to one or both of the
warring parties. These conflicts include Afghanistan,
Algeria, Iraq, Mauritania, Rwanda, Somalia, Uganda,
USA (the conflict with Al-Qaeda) and Yemen.7 This is
the highest incidence of internationalized armed con-
flicts since the end of the Second World War. In fact, the
number of conflicts with external involvement has been
high for some time and not below five since 2005.
Never, since 1946, has there been a period this long with
5
UCDP Battle-related deaths dataset v. 5-2011, 1989–2010 is
released in July 2011.
6
This may actually be a longer trend. Using recent Correlates of War
data, interstate wars have not been more than one-third of all inter-
and intra-state wars since 1816 (Wallensteen, 2011: 28–32; Sarkees
& Wayman, 2010).
7
See Appendix 1 for information on the states contributing troops to
these conflicts.
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journal of PEACE RESEARCH 48(4)
so many internationalized conflicts. This trend becomes
even clearer when considering internationalized conflicts
as a share of the total number of conflicts. This share
stood at almost 27% in 2010, making it the year with the
highest relative incidence of this phenomenon. In the
past six years we have seen a percentage of internationa-
lized conflicts well above what has been reported earlier,
representing a clear trend. The fact that this type of con-
flict is on the rise can have negative implications for
peacemaking efforts, since involvement by an external
actor in an intrastate conflict tends to prolong it (Cun-
ningham, 2010). Thus, the observed increase in interna-
tionalized conflicts and the decrease in dyads in conflicts
discussed above signal two contradictory developments
which complicate prognoses for the coming years.
In two conflicts, peace agreements were signed in
2010. On 23 February the Sudanese government and
the rebel group JEM (Justice and Equality Movement)
signed a peace process agreement in Doha, the capital
of Qatar. The accord, which was negotiated by Chad, sti-
pulated a power-sharing deal between JEM and the gov-
ernment on all administrative levels in an eventual final
agreement. Furthermore, it provided for the cancellation
of death sentences against some 100 JEM rebels. Above
all, however, the accord was viewed as a framework
agreement that was meant to become more specific and
comprehensive as negotiations continued. It soon
became clear that neither the ceasefire that had been
agreed upon prior to the signing of the accord nor the
envisioned negotiations process would become a reality.
Heavy fighting erupted in late April and on 3 May JEM
walked out of the negotiations.
A peace process agreement was also signed in the
interstate conflict between Djibouti and Eritrea. The 6
June accord, mediated by Qatar, includes the creation
of a committee consisting of one participant from each
country as well as one from Qatar, charged with the con-
tentious border issue. The parties also committed them-
selves to provide lists of prisoners of war and missing
persons. Furthermore, Qatar agreed to monitor the bor-
der until a final agreement has been reached. This means
that 2010 only saw one peace agreement that seems to be
respected, which is remarkable in light of the previous
record of peace accords. It is also noteworthy that nego-
tiated settlements apparently cannot explain the reported
reduction in armed conflicts.
Two new conflicts erupted in 2010, in Mauritania
and Tajikistan, both involving rebel groups that had pre-
viously fought against neighbouring governments. In
Mauritania, the government found itself challenged by
the rebel group AQIM (Al-Qaeda Organization in the
Themnér & Wallensteen
Islamic Maghreb), originating in Algeria. On 6 August
2008 a military coup brought the present Mauritanian
government to power and this triggered a reaction from
AQIM. Considering the new government illegitimate
and un-Islamic, AQIM called for a holy war against the
regime, with the ultimate aim of replacing it with an Isla-
mic caliphate. While some sporadic clashes were
reported in 2009, fighting escalated in 2010, when
Mauritania, together with France, launched a cross-
border attack against an AQIM base in neighbouring
Mali. This was followed by another attack across the bor-
der in September, claimed by the Mauritanian defence
ministry to have been launched to prevent an attack
on one of its military positions.
In Tajikistan, the originally Uzbek rebel group IMU
(Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan) escalated attacks in
2010. When the group was formed in the late 1990s,
it initially focused its attention on removing the Uzbek
government. However, already in this early phase, IMU
was present in Tajikistan, where it had some of its rear
bases. After heavy government pressure, the group was
forced to retreat to its bases in Afghanistan in October
2000, after which the IMU fighters fought alongside the
Taliban for over a year. In the wake of the US intervention
in 2001, remnants of the group moved to Pakistan’s tribal
areas. Around this time, IMU expanded its goals, announ-
cing that it was now fighting for the creation of an Islamic
Caliphate in Central Asia (the area called Maverannahr,
which includes the territory between the rivers Amu Darya
and Syr Darya in present-day Uzbekistan, Tajikistan and
southwest Kazakhstan). In line with this new goal, IMU
regionalized its attacks. While most of the group remains
in Pakistan, some fighters are based in Afghanistan, and the
group operates small cells in the Fergana Valley, conduct-
ing attacks in the border areas of Uzbekistan, Tajikistan
and Kyrgyzstan. In 2010 a group of IMU fighters located
in Tajikistan’s Rasht Valley escalated attacks on govern-
ment targets, and the conflict crossed the 25 battle-
related deaths threshold for the first time.
Aside from the Sri Lankan case, discussed above,
seven other conflicts listed for 2009 were no longer active
in 2010. This is the first main explanation for the reduc-
tion of the overall number. As the following account
makes clear, conflicts on a low level of intensity have
become even less active, in some cases following major
government offensives.8 This is also why it is difficult
8
For more in-depth information on the developments in these conflicts,
see the UCDP’s online Conflict Encyclopedia at www.ucdp.uu.se/
database.
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529
to determine whether the conflicts are actually termi-
nated or if the inactivity simply means that rebels are
regrouping.
Some of these conflicts are clearly continuing, but at a
lower intensity level. In the conflict between the Angolan
government and the Cabindan separatist group FLEC-
FAC (Frente para a Libertaçâo do Enclave de Cabinda
– Forces Amardas de Cabinda), fighting has continu-
ously been at a low level, with the number of fatalities
fluctuating around the 25 battle-related deaths threshold
for inclusion in the UCDP record. While there were a
couple of well reported events in 2010 – such as the
attack on the Togolese national soccer team travelling
by bus in the region – the conflict level fell below this
threshold.
The conflict between the Ethiopian government and
the rebel group OLF (Oromo Liberation Front) has been
ongoing since the mid-1970s. It is difficult to find reli-
able, neutral information on fighting between the par-
ties, so UCDP pays attention to other signs that
indicate active fighting. If, for instance, OLF has claimed
to have engaged government forces in a large battle near
the Kenyan border but there is no other corroboration of
this, indicators such as cross-border movements of refu-
gees, or complaints by the Kenyan police that Ethiopian
troops have crossed the border in apparent pursuit of
rebels, are taken into account. However, in 2010 there
were few claims from the parties of large-scale fighting,
and few additional indicators suggesting that the conflict
was ongoing at a level that would cause 25 battle-related
deaths. Thus, the conflict is coded as not active.
In the conflict between the Indian government and
the separatist rebel groups in Manipur in north-east
India, conflict activity de-escalated in 2010. As with the
Cabinda case, fighting has always been on a low level,
fluctuating around the 25 battle-related deaths thresh-
old, and in 2010 it fell below that threshold.
There were no reports of fighting between the Malian
government forces and the Touareg rebel group
ATNMC (Alliance Touareg Nord Mali pour le Change-
ment) in 2010. After a major rebel attack in December
2008, the army carried out an offensive in January
2009, where they were able to capture and destroy
‘Boureissa’, the main rebel base. After some further
defeats, ATNMC leader Ibrahim Ag Bahanga left the
country and hundreds of his fighters joined an ongoing
peace process between the government and another
Tuareg rebel group, ADC (Alliance Démocratique du
23 Mai pour le Changement). Ag Bahanga subsequently
spent the rest of 2009 and most of 2010 in Libya and
Algeria, apparently increasingly isolated.
530
The conflict that erupted over the status of the
Kokang region, between the government of Myanmar
and the rebel group MNDAA (Myanmar Nationalities
Democratic Alliance Army) in 2009, was not active in
2010. Following a government offensive, the national
army was able to overrun the Kokang region in late
August 2009. The government subsequently promoted
some lower-level MNDAA members to be government
representatives in Kokang, whereas other fighters fled
across the border to China, where they were demobi-
lized. While the leader of the group, Peng Jiasheng, and
some troops loyal to him withdrew and claimed to pre-
pare for a new phase of fighting, there were no more
clashes in 2009. The only violence involving MNDAA
that was registered for the year 2010 were two bomb
blasts that resulted in one death.9
Following the Nigerian government’s harsh crackdown
on the Islamic rebel group Boko Haram in 2009, little was
heard from the group during the first months of 2010. A
few months into the year rumours began to circulate that
the group was preparing renewed armed actions and that it
was cooperating with AQIM. There were subsequent
reports of attacks on security forces by suspected Boko
Haram members in northern Nigeria, but it was not pos-
sible to determine how many had been killed. The conflict
is coded as an unclear case in 2010.
The conflict between the Pakistani government and
the separatist rebel groups in Baluchistan, fought
between 2004 and 2009, was not registered as active
in 2010. While there were reports of clashes in the
region, the quality of the reporting was poor. Thus it was
not possible to determine which rebel group was respon-
sible for the attacks, and the conflict was considered an
unclear case in 2010.
In terms of regional distribution, we note that the
reduction of armed conflict has been particularly notable
in Asia and Africa. More specifically, Africa south of the
Sahara is a region that has seen a significant drop in the
number of armed conflicts over the past decade. While the
world as a whole experienced a peak in armed conflict in
1992, just after the end of the Cold War, the conflict peak
in sub-Saharan Africa came some years later, in 1998, with
16 conflicts active. The number then fell sharply and had
by 2005 reached a level not recorded since the mid-1970s,
with six conflicts active. Even though the next three years
saw an increase, the number has now dropped for two
consecutive years and with eight conflicts active in 2010,
9
While it is clear that the first blast did not kill anyone, sources
disagree on whether there were one or no deaths in the second blast.
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journal of PEACE RESEARCH 48(4)
this is a decrease of 50% since the peak year. Furthermore,
only one war – Somalia – was recorded for sub-Saharan
Africa in 2010, which is considerably below the numbers
registered for most years since the late 1970s.10 Although
many expected the financial crisis to lead to increased con-
flict, the crisis may also have made it more difficult for
rebel groups to finance arms purchases. However, many
African countries appear to have quickly overcome the
effects of the crisis. In 2010, some African economies actu-
ally reported pre-crisis growth numbers – no doubt based
on increased trade with China and India. Particularly high
growth rates were identified for Ethiopia and Ghana, both
in conflict-prone areas, whereas southern Africa was grow-
ing below expectations (IMF, 2011). For populations in
many African countries, this might result in a more opti-
mistic scenario for the future and, thus, a reduction in the
recruitment into government or rebel armies.
The decline in the number of conflicts can to some
extent also be related to political developments in key
countries such as India and Burma/Myanmar. In India,
the tendency to vote according to regional and ethnic
patterns that was observed in 2009 may indicate reduced
support for armed actors (Jaffrelot & Verniers, 2009). In
Burma, the developments leading up to general elections
may have made the government more willing to compro-
mise with rebel groups to demonstrate a smooth process
to the outer world (Nyein, 2009). Other factors that may
have played a role in the present decline are arms embar-
goes and previous peace accords that are finally starting
to have an impact. Furthermore, it is noteworthy that
there were only two new conflicts in 2010, and both
included actors that had been active before. There was
no previously ended conflict that restarted.
The persistence of the declining trends may have
appeared to be challenged by events during the first
months of 2011. However, many of the developments
in the Middle East and in Africa displayed the traits of
one-sided violence rather than armed conflicts. Some
events also followed earlier observed patterns. Only the
conflict in Libya may, so far, be entirely new.11
10
For more information on the trends in armed conflict in Africa, see
Harbom & Forsberg (2011).
11
For an update on the unfolding developments in the Arab world,
see UCDP. Arabian Spring http://www.pcr.uu.se/digitalAssets/62/
62191_Background_narrative_arabian_spring.pdf and http://www.
pcr.uu.se/digitalAssets/62/62193_chronologic_timeline_arabian_
spring.pdf. For a definition of one-sided violence see Eck & Hultman
(2007) as well as the UCDP website, www.ucdp.uu.se.
Themnér & Wallensteen
Acknowledgements
Numerous colleagues in Uppsala have contributed to the
data collection, notably Marie Allansson, Christian Altp-
eter, Johan Brosché, Mihai Croicu, Maria Greek, Helena
Grusell, Stina Högbladh, Emma Johansson, Joakim Kreutz,
Marcus Nilsson, Therése Pettersson, Nynke Salverda,
Ralph Sundberg, Samuel Taub and Nina von Uexküll.
Replication data
The complete datasets (UCDP/PRIO Armed Conflict
Dataset and UCDP Dyadic Dataset) updated to 2010
are found at http://www.pcr.uu.se/research/ucdp/data-
sets/. Older versions of the UCDP/PRIO Armed Conflict
Dataset can also be found at http://www.pcr.uu.
se/research/ucdp/datasets/replication_datasets/ and www.
prio.no/cscw/armedconflict. The tables and figures in this
article were created directly from the Excel sheet at http://
www.pcr.uu.se/research/ucdp/datasets/ucdp_prio_armed_
conflict_dataset/. Detailed descriptions of the individual
conflicts are found at www.ucdp.uu.se/database. Replica-
tion data for this article can be found both at http://
www.pcr.uu.se/research/ucdp/datasets/replication_datasets/
and www.prio.no/jpr/datasets.
Funding
Research for this article was financed by the Swedish
International Cooperation Development Agency (Sida)
and Uppsala University.
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Svensson, Isak & Peter Wallensteen (2010) The
Go-Between: Jan Eliasson and the Styles of Mediation.
Washington DC: US Institute of Peace Press.
Wallensteen, Peter (2011) Peace Research: Theory and
Practice. London: Routledge.
LOTTA THEMNÉR (previously Harbom), b. 1975,
MA in peace and conflict research (Uppsala University,
2002); project leader, Uppsala Conflict Data Program,
Department of Peace and Conflict Research. She has
published articles on conflict data in the Journal of
Peace Research and SIPRI Yearbook since 2005 and edi-
ted States in Armed Conflict since 2004.
PETER WALLENSTEEN, b. 1945, PhD (Uppsala
University, 1973); Dag Hammarskjöld Professor of
Peace and Conflict Research, Uppsala University
(1985–) and Richard G. Starmann Sr Research
Professor of Peace Studies, University of Notre Dame
(2006–). He directs the Uppsala Conflict Data
Program (UCDP) and the Special Program on the
Implementation of Targeted Sanctions (SPITS). The
third, updated edition of his book Understanding Con-
flict Resolution: War, Peace and the Global System
(Sage) will be published in 2011. Together with Isak
Svensson he has written The Go-Between: Jan Eliasson
and the Styles of Mediation (US Institute of Peace
Press, 2010).
532
Appendix 1.
Armed conflicts active in 2010
This list includes all conflicts that exceeded the minimum
threshold of 25 battle-related deaths in 2010 and fulfilled
the other criteria for inclusion. The column Year shows the
latest range of years in which the conflict has been active
without interruption. The start year is found in parenthesis
in the Incompatibility column, which indicates when the
armed conflict reached 25 battle-related deaths for the first
time. If a conflict has been inactive for more than ten years
or if there has been a complete change in the opposition
side, the start year refers to the onset of the latest phase of
the conflict. For more complete information on the conflict
history, see (a) the list of armed conflicts 1946–2010, at
http://www.pcr.uu.se/research/ucdp/datasets/ and http://
www.prio.no/cscw/ArmedConflict and (b) the Uppsala
Conflict Data Program’s online database at http://
www.ucdp.uu.se/database. For a list of all conflicts and
dyads 1946–2010, see http://www.pcr.uu.se/research/
ucdp/datasets/. The column Intensity in 2010 displays the
aggregated conflict intensity. Thus, if more than one dyad
is active in the conflict, the intensity column records their
aggregated intensity.
Definitions
An armed conflict is defined by the Uppsala Conflict
Data Program (UCDP) as a contested incompatibility
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journal of PEACE RESEARCH 48(4)
that concerns government or territory or both where the
use of armed force between two parties results in at least
25 battle-related deaths in a year. Of these two parties, at
least one has to be the government of a state.
The incompatibility is the stated (in writing or verbally)
generally incompatible positions. A more detailed defini-
tion can be found on UCDP’s webpage, at http://
www.ucdp.uu.se.
The conflicts are divided according to their intensity into
two categories:
 Minor armed conflicts: at least 25 battle-related deaths
in a year but fewer than 1,000.
 War: at least 1,000 battle-related deaths in a year.
Furthermore, the conflicts are divided according to type
of conflict.12
 Interstate armed conflict occurs between two or more
states.
 Internationalized internal armed conflict occurs
between the government of a state and internal
opposition groups, with intervention from other
states in the form of troops.
 Internal armed conflict occurs between the govern-
ment of a state and internal opposition groups.
12
UCDP has also coded a fourth type, extrasystemic armed conflict: a
conflict that occurs between a state and a non-state group outside its
own territory. These conflicts are by definition territorial. The last
such conflict ended in 1974, so this category is not applicable in
Appendix 1.
 Appendix 1.

Intensity
Location Incompatibility Opposition organization(s) in 2010 Year in 2010
Themnér & Wallensteen

EUROPE
Russia (2007) Territory (Caucasus Emirate) Caucasus Emirate 2007–10 Minor
MIDDLE EAST
Iran (2005) Government Jondollah (God’s Soldiers) 2005–10 Minor
Iraq (2004) Government13 ISI (Dawlat al-’Iraq al-Islamiyya: Islamic State 2004–10 War
in Iraq)
Israel Territory (Palestine) PIJ (Al-Jihad al-Islami fi Filastin: Palestinian 2000–10 Minor
(1949) Islamic Jihad)
Turkey (1984) Territory (Kurdistan) PKK (Partiya Karkeran Kurdistan: Kurdistan 1984–2010 Minor
Workers’ Party)
Yemen (2009) Government14 AQAP (Al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula) 2009–10 Minor
ASIA
Afghanistan (1978) Government15 Taleban, Hizb-i Islami-yi Afghanistan (Islamic 2003–10 War
Party of Afghanistan)
India Territory (Assam) ULFA (United Liberation Front of Assam) 1994–2010 Minor
(1990)
Territory (Bodoland) NDFB – RD (National Democratic Front of 2009–10 Minor
(1989) Bodoland – Ranjan Daimary faction), NDFB
Territory (Kashmir) Kashmir insurgents16 1989–2010 Minor
(1989)

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Government CPI–Maoist (Communist Party of India- 1996–2010 Minor
(1990) Maoist)
Myanmar Territory (Karen) KNU (Karen National Union), DKBA 5 2005–10 Minor
(1949) (Democratic Karen Buddhist Army Brigade 5)
Territory (Shan) SSA–s (Shan State Army – South Command) 2005–10 Minor
(1996)
Pakistan Government TTP (Tehrik-i-Taleban Pakistan: Movement of 2007–10 War
(2008) the Taliban in Pakistan)
(continued)
533
 534

Appendix 1 (continued)

Intensity
Location Incompatibility Opposition organization(s) in 2010 Year in 2010
Philippines (1970) Territory (Mindanao) ASG (Abu Sayyaf Group) 1993–2010 Minor
Government CPP (Communist Party of the Philippines) 1999–2010 Minor
(1969)
Thailand (2003) Territory (Patani) Patani insurgents17 2003–10 Minor
Tajikistan (2010) Government IMU (Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan) 2010 Minor
AFRICA
Algeria (1992) Government18 AQIM (Al-Qaida Organization in the Islamic 1991–2010 Minor
Maghreb)19
Central African Republic Government CPJP (Convention des patriotes pour la justice 2009–2010 Minor
(2009) et la paix: the Convention of Patriots for
Justice and Peace)
Chad Government PFNR (Front populaire pour la renaissance 2005–10 Minor
(2010) nationale: Popular Front for National
Renaissance)
Ethiopia (1993) Territory (Ogaden) ONLF (Ogaden National Liberation Front) 1998–2010 Minor
Mauritania (2010) Government20 AQIM (Al-Qaida Organization in the Islamic 2010 Minor
Maghreb)
Rwanda Government21 FDLR (Forces Democratiques de Liberation du 2009–2010 Minor
(1997) Rwanda: Democratic Liberation Forces of
Rwanda)
Somalia (2006) Government22 Al-Shabaab (The Youth), Hizbul Islam (Islamic 2006–10 War

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Party)23
Sudan Government JEM (Justice and Equality Movement), SLM/A 1983–2010 Minor
(1983) (Sudan Liberation Movement/Army), Forces
of George Athor
Uganda (1979) Government24 LRA (Lord’s Resistance Army) 2008–10 Minor
AMERICAS

(continued)
journal of PEACE RESEARCH 48(4)
 Appendix 1 (continued)
Themnér & Wallensteen

Intensity
Location Incompatibility Opposition organization(s) in 2010 Year in 2010
Colombia (1964) Government FARC (Fuerzas armadas revolucionarias 1964–2010 Minor
colombianas: Revolutionary Armed Forces of
Colombia), ELN (Ejército de Liberación
Nacional: National Liberation Army)
Peru Government Sendero Luminoso (Shining Path) 2007–10 Minor
(1982)
USA Government25 Al-Qaida (The Base) 2004–10 Minor
(2001)
13
Supported by troops from the USA.
14
Supported by troops from the USA.
15
Supported by the NATO-led International Security Assistance Force (ISAF) that in 2010 included troops from: Albania, Armenia, Australia, Austria, Azerbaijan, Belgium, Bosnia and Herzegovina,
Bulgaria, Canada, Croatia, Czech Republic, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, France, Georgia, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Iceland, Ireland, Italy, Jordan, Latvia, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Macedonia, Malay-
sia, Mongolia, Montenegro, the Netherlands, New Zealand, Norway, Poland, Portugal, Romania, Singapore, Slovakia, Slovenia, South Korea, Spain, Sweden, Turkey, Ukraine, the UAE, the UK and the
USA. While all these countries contributed troops to ISAF, some did not have a mandate to fight. All the countries are listed here because information on the mandates of individual states’ troops is often
sensitive and hard to find.
16
A large number of groups have been active. Some of the larger groups in 2010 were Lashkar-e-Toiba and Hizb-ul-Mujahideen.
17
For example, BRN-C (Barisan Nasional Revolusi – Coordinate), PULO (Patani United Liberation Organisation) and GMIP (Gerekan Mujahideen Islam Pattani).
18
Supported by troops from Niger.
19
Until January 2007, AQIM was known as GSPC (al-Jama’ah al-Salafiyah lil-Da’wah wa’l-Qital: Groupe Salafiste pour la prédication et le combat: Salafist Group for Preaching and Combat).
20

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Supported by troops from France and Niger.
21
Supported by troops from the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC).
22
Supported by troops from Ethiopia.
23
Hizbul-Islam was previously coded as the Alliance for the Re-liberation of Somalia/Union of Islamic Courts (ARS/UIC). In line with UCDP coding rules, the umbrella group Hizbul-Islam is seen as the
continuation of ARS/ICU since the latter was the only group entering the alliance that had previously been recorded in UCDP data.
24
Supported by troops from DRC, Southern Sudan and Central African Republic.
25
In 2010, the USA was supported by a multinational coalition that included troops from Canada, France, the Netherlands and Romania. Reliable information on states contributing troops is sensitive and
hard to find, so this list should be seen as preliminary.
535
536 journal of PEACE RESEARCH 48(4)

Appendix 2. least one of the three components of the definition: (a)

Unclear cases in 2010
Cases that have been completely rejected on the grounds
that they definitely do not meet the criteria of armed
conflict are not included in the list below. For the con-
flicts listed here, the available information suggests the
possibility of the cases meeting the criteria of armed con-
flicts, but there is insufficient information concerning at
the number of deaths, (b) the identity or level of organi-
zation of a party, or (c) the type of incompatibility. For
unclear cases for the entire 1946–2010 period, see http://
www.pcr.uu.se/research/ucdp/datasets/ or www.prio.no/
cwp/armedconflict. The unclear aspect may concern an
entire conflict (e.g. Yemen) or a dyad in a conflict that is
included in Appendix 1 (e.g. PJAK in the Iran conflict).

Location/Government Opposition organization Unclear aspect

Azerbaijan Republic of Nagorno-Karabakh Number of deaths
Indonesia TAQSIM (Tandzim al-Qaida Serambi Mekkah: Al-Qaida in Aceh) Number of deaths
Iran PJAK (Parti Jiyani Azadi Kurdistan: The Free Life Party of Kurdistan) Number of deaths
Israel Hamas Number of deaths
Nigeria Boko Haram Number of deaths
Pakistan BLA (Baluchistan Liberation Army) Number of deaths
Pakistan BRA (Baluchistan Republican Army) Number of deaths
Thailand Red-Shirts Level/identity of organisation26
Yemen Shabab al-Mu’mineen (the Believing Youth) Incompatibility
26
For a more in-depth discussion on the conflict between the Thai government and the Red Shirts, and the reason that it is not included in
UCDP data, see the ‘Additional Information’ section on the Thailand page in the UCDP database, at http://www.ucdp.uu.se/gpdatabase/
gpcountry.php?id¼154&regionSelect¼ 7-Eastern_Asia#.

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