1

Table of Contents
1) Introduction......................................................2
2) Aims and Objectives.......................................2
2.1) Problem.................................................3
2.2) Solution.................................................3
3) Related Work...................................................3
3.1) Literature Review..................................3
4) Method.............................................................3
4.1) Artificial Neural Network.....................3
4.1.1) ANN Experiment 1............................4
4.1.2) Comparison between the confusion matrix and error rates with Random Forest Tree
4.1.3) ANN Experiment 2............................5
4.1.4) PCA....................................................5
4.1.5) PCA on ANN.....................................5
4.2) Gradient Boosting..................................6
4.2.1) Gradient Boosting Experiment 1.......6
4.3) Difference between ANN and Gradient Boosting 7
4.4) Advantages of ANN and Gradient Boosting 7
4.5) Dis Advantages of ANN and Gradient Boosting 7
5) Result and Discussion......................................8
5.1) Artificial Neural Network.....................8
5.2) Performing PCA on ANN.....................9
5.3) PCA on ANN Experiment 1..................9
5.4) Gradient Boosting Experiment 1.........10
6) Conclusion and Future Work.........................10
7) REFRENCES.................................................10

Artificial Intelligence Applications & Algorithms
Abstract-- This research paper provides details
about the techniques that are being used to
evaluate and solve a problem using Artificial
Intelligence. This report provides with the
information related to the algorithms that are
going to be used to solve the problem. This
paper provides with the comparison and
working of the two algorithms. This report
offers an overview of the use of artificial neural
networks in financial market price forecasting.
The goal of this research is to assess the
possibilities of utilizing artificial neural networks
to forecast the financial system, which has
been discussed in a number of recent
publications. It will include research and
implementation recommendations as well as
references. This research also explains about
the gradient boosting that is being used in
banking sector for financial risk management.
Keywords: Artificial Neural Network, Gradient Boosting,
Random Forest Tree, Data Mining, Artificial Intelligence,
Algorithms.
1) INTRODUCTION
T his article explains two different algorithms
that are being used in this research paper and
the problem that they are going to be used for and
the solution for that problem. The two algorithms
are used in this research paper. The first algorithm
is Artificial Neural Network and the second
algorithm is Gradient Boosting. Artificial neural
networks (ANNs) are massively parallel-distributed
computers that have a natural inclination for storing
experience and learning new things and putting it
to use. The solution is straightforward. The
paradigm's innovative structure is a key component
of it. a data storage and processing system It is
made up of a large number of closely connected
processing components (neurons) that work
together to solve a problem. ANNs learn by
practice. An ANN is tailored for a specific goal,
such as pattern recognition or data classification,
through a learning process. Learning in biological
systems involves modifications to the synaptic
connections that connect neurons. Furthermore,
current research reveals that an ANN is employed in
a number of industries; however, none of them, to
our knowledge, use an ANN to predict customer
behavior in banks. This gives us motivation to keep
working in this sector (Ogwueleka, Misra, Colomo-
Palacios and Fernandez, 2012). Gradient Boosting
(GB) is an iterative procedure that results in a
highly accurate prediction rule by merging basic
parameterized functions with "poor" performance
(high prediction error). GB offers interpretable
findings with minimum data preparation and
2
parameter tweaking, in contrast to other statistical
learning algorithms that typically give equal
accuracy (e.g., neural networks and support vector
machines). The method is particularly resistant to
dirty data and may be used to solve classification
or regression problems with a wide range of
response distributions. The squared-error and
exponential error loss functions are two plausible
loss functions that are commonly used in
regression and classification problems,
respectively (Guelman, 2012).
Gradient Boosting (GB) is an iterative procedure
that results in a highly accurate prediction rule by
merging basic parameterized functions with "poor"
performance (high prediction error). GB offers
interpretable findings with minimum data
preparation and parameter tweaking, in contrast to
other statistical learning algorithms that typically
give equal accuracy (e.g., neural networks and
support vector machines). The method is
particularly resistant to dirty data and may be used
to solve classification or regression problems with
a wide range of response distributions. The
squared-error and exponential error loss functions
are two plausible loss functions that are commonly
used in regression and classification problems,
respectively (Guelman, 2012).
Other loss functions, on the other hand, may be
more appropriate in some situations. When the
Bayes error rate is not close to zero or the target
classes are mislabeled, binomial deviance, for
example, is substantially more robust than
exponential loss under noisy situations. Similarly,
when the error distribution is long-tailed or when
there are "outliers" in the data, the performance of
squared error drops considerably. In such
instances, other functions, such as absolute error or
Huber loss, are more suited. For these alternative
loss function settings and a specific weak learner.
The gradient boosting strategy is applicable to any
differentiable loss function and solves the issue in
two phases. The first step estimates using least-
squares to fit a weak learner h(x;a) to the loss
function's negative gradient (i.e., the "pseudo-
residuals"). In the second step, the optimal value of
bt given h is computed (x;at) (Guelman, 2012).
2) AIMS AND OBJECTIVES
The goal is to utilize an AI system to tackle a
banking sector problem. The goal is to use the
Artificial Neural Network algorithm and the
Gradient Boosting algorithm to tackle the following
problem.

2.1) Problem
By calling a customer personally, an item is given
away as part of a campaign. As part of an
advertising campaign plan, all enrolled customers
are contacted. In any event, such a rapid approach
is useless because the vast majority of called
customers are uninterested in the things offered. A
huge number of calls will be squandered under
these conditions, adding to the mission's woes.
However, a few customers may not be on the call
list, and the mission supervisor may overlook
prospective buyers.
2.2) Solution
A Guide Marketing Campaign's purpose is to reach
the projected number of consumers with registered
profiles by phoning them and using their
information to direct them to the things being
offered. We'll run numerous experiments using
artificial neural networks and gradient boosting to
analyses the data and get the best results. We'll
receive the greatest results and solve our problem
quickly if we use these methods.
3) RELATED WORK
There have been a lot of improvements done in this
sector but still it needs to be improved. In this paper
the previous work is considered as the benchmark.
3.1) Literature Review
In contrast to market-wide competition metrics like
the Herfindahl index and concentration ratios, Boyd
and Runkle (1993) connected signs of bank failure
to bank size. Because the size variable is thought to
be related to market power, the results of these
research are at the very least indicative of bank
failure. They discovered that the size of the bank
had no bearing on the likelihood of collapse
(Carmona, Climent and Momparler, 2019).
Credit rating is a technical aspect in determining
credit risk (Khashman, 2010). The purpose of credit
rating is to divide applicants into two groups: those
with excellent credit and those with bad credit
(Ghodselahi & Amirmadhi, 2011). A type of
universal approximation is multilayer feedforward
networks (Hornik, Stinchcombe, & White, 1989).
One of the most fundamental and crucial elements
of ANN models is the idea of "universal
approximation." These models offer a high level of
predictability (Steiner, Neto, Soma, Shimizu, &
Nievola, 2006). This means that the networks may
adapt to random and unknown functional forms
with a degree of accuracy that can be set freely.
Because of their excellent pattern detection, non-
parametric models are well-known in many fields,
3
particularly computers (Hall, Muljawan, Suprayogi,
& Moorena, 2009).
The methods for extracting rules from a neural
network differ. Steiner et al. (2006) use the
NeuroRule extraction approach to analyses a credit
risk data collection. Angelini et al. (2008)
demonstrate the utility of neural networks in credit
risk applications, particularly as black-box non-
linear systems to be utilized in conjunction with
traditional grading and selection methods. In order
to anticipate credit risk in banks, a mix of
methodologies is sometimes utilized. Pacelli and
Azzollini (2011) believe that neural network models
combined with linear approaches have provided
further support. The use of contemporary indicators
in addition to classic financial ratio indicators
improves prediction accuracy significantly (Atiya,
2001).
4) METHOD
Artificial Neural Networks, Gradient Boosting,
Bayesian classification, rule-based techniques,
memory-based learning, and support vector
machines are all examples of classification
algorithms that are extensively utilized in a number
of applications and have shown their accuracy and
correctness (Wu et al., 2014). Artificial Neural
Network and Gradient Boosting are two of the
techniques being developed.
4.1) Artificial Neural Network
The neural network model is constructed in such a
way that when a collection of inputs is applied, the
desired set of outputs is generated. By feeding it
patterns and allowing it to alter its weights
depending on a learning rule, the neural network is
educated. The decision-making process of the
ANN is divided into two stages: learning and
reasoning. Before making a decision, the ANN is
trained using previous evaluation instances.
Backpropagation is used in the algorithm
(Ogwueleka, Misra, Colomo-Palacios and
Fernandez, 2012). ANNs are information
processing systems whose structure and function
are inspired by the cognitive processes and
organizational structure of neurobiological
systems. The basic components of these networks
are neurons, which are densely coupled processing
dements that work independently in parallel.
Neural pathways are used to transfer messages
from one neuron to another, and their strength
varies. These neurons store information and build
meaningful patterns by strengthening their
interactions. A neuron fires and sends the stimulus

to nearby neurons when it receives a certain
number of impulses and their aggregate surpasses
a certain threshold value (Witkowska, 1999).
Artificial neural networks are commonly used to
handle pattern classification problems (ANNs). A
case in point is bankruptcy prediction, in which
neural networks are used to identify whether or not
a corporation is insolvent. Evaluation of the firm's
creditworthiness is related to the bankruptcy
prediction issue since the bank makes the
decision after researching the firm's financial
situation (Witkowska, 1999). Throughout the
1990s, Poland saw a surge in the number of
commercial banks. These banks analyses and
determine a company's creditworthiness using
several forms of analysis.
In ANN models, the input and output parameters
are the same as in linear models. The three basic
components of these models are the input data
layer, hidden layer(s), and output measure(s) layer.
Each of these levels has nodes, which are connected
to nodes in nearby layers (s). The transformation
function and the weighted summation functions
may both be found in the hidden layer (s). Both of
these functions link the data values in the input to
the measurements in the output. The weighted
summation function is often used in a
feedforward/back propagation neural network
model (Nazari and Alidadi, 2022).
Figure 1: A simplified neural network model
A simple neural network is shown in Figure 1. A
neural network is an interconnected collection of
nodes comprised of neurons in an input layer, one
or more hidden layers, and an output layer, as
shown in Figure 1.
The input pattern is internally represented by the
middle layer, which is placed in the center of the
input layer. Patterns are recognized at this layer by
distilling the input's attributes and then passing
them on to the output layer. The output layer's
choice on categorization for the input patterns is the
result of the output layer. As a result, the distilling
character layer is referred to as the intermediate
layer. In this study, the input and output variables
4
are first classified. Geographic location, product
price variety, overall price level, overall quality of
items, time of waiting for payment, service attitude,
and shopping environment were all included as
input factors to the network. For the output variable,
there is only one possible measurement value.
(2012) Ogwueleka, Misra, Colomo-Palacios, and
Fernandez ANNs are commonly used because of
their modelling capabilities. ANN is a versatile,
non-parametric technique based on biological
neural circuits. The multilayer perceptron is an
effective classification tool that is widely used in
practice.
Neural networks are used by banks to analyses
credit and loan applications and determine the
possibility of default. ANN approaches for default
prediction, which first appeared in 1990, generally
used multilayer networks and achieved higher Type
I and Type II classification accuracy than MDA.
When MDA, LR, and decision trees were used to
forecast bank and thrift failure, the multilayer
network fared the best. The bank failure prediction
based on KOHONEN's self-organizing maps was
accurate (Li and Ma, 2010).
4.1.1) ANN Experiment 1
An artificial neural (ANN) is a piece of man-made
brainpower designed to mimic the functioning of
the human mind. ANNs are made up of caring units,
which include information sources and yields. The
data sources are what the ANN uses to provide the
best yield.
We altered the values of the following parameters to
acquire the best outcome while designing a solution
with the ANN Algorithm.
 Probability
I used to be
 Number of hidden neurons
A multilayer network is one that incorporates buried
neurons. In general, the number of hidden neurons,
Nh, is proportional to the degree of complexity of
the class boundaries. As the class boundaries get
more intricate, the number of buried neurons should
be increased. To avoid the problem of overfitting,
the number of hidden neurons, Nh, should be
maintained as low as possible.
During the studies, it was experimented with
various hidden neuron values in order to get the
highest level of accuracy. The number of neurons

was set to 2 in the parameter since it was obtaining
more accurate results during the experiments.
Figure 2: Experiment 1
 Number of iterations
The number of iterations is the number of times the
data sets in the training are repeated. Using three
iterations, it was able to get good outcomes during
the experiments. It used variable rep with the value
3 to indicate the iterations.
Figure 3: Experiment 1 Number of Iterations
4.1.2) Comparison between the confusion
matrix and error rates with Random
Forest Tree
Figure 4: Difference between ANN and RFT Error Rates
4.1.3) ANN Experiment 2
Values used for the experiment are shown below in
the figure 5.
Figure 5: Experiment 2 Input Values
Figure 6: Probability of Experiment 2
5
4.1.4) PCA
First and foremost, we aim to create an informative
collection that provides critical information in a
machine-readable style. Loading and reviewing Iris
data benchmark are two more advancements. An
ANN model is trained and tested. The data includes
estimates collected from 150 iris flowers of three
species, as represented in the iris data benchmark.
Figure 7: PCA iris Values
For the time being, the data loading and training are
complete. The neural network must now be trained
using one of four different input variables. The
variable size is set to 5 and SoftMax is set to TRUE.
The maximum number of iterations is 100.
Figure 8: PCA Plot
4.1.5) PCA on ANN
PCA on training and validation sets is suggested for
more precise results. PCA is a broad-based starting
construction that is usually lost in subtitles.
Plot before performing PCA on ANN

Figure 9: Plot before PCA on ANN
4.2) Gradient Boosting
Gradient boosting approach solves the problem in
two steps and is applicable to any differentiable loss
function. The first stage estimates by fitting a weak
learner h(x;a) to the loss function's negative
gradient (i.e., the "pseudo-residuals") using least-
squares. The ideal value of bt given h is calculated
in the second phase (x;at) (Guelman, 2012).
Figure 10: Algorithm for Gradient Boosting
Because the negative gradient in line 3 is merely the
residuals for squared-error loss, the approach is
reduced to regular least-squares boosting in this
case. With absolute error loss, the residuals have a
negative gradient. Regardless of the loss function,
Line 4 applies least-squares.
Although boosting isn't restricted to trees, we'll
focus on the case in which the weak learners
represent a "small" regression tree because they've
been proved to be a good representation for weak
learners h(x;a) in the context of boosting. The
process described above is referred to as gradient
boosting trees in this case, and the parameters
reflect the split variables, their split values, and the
fitted values at each tree's terminal node. From here
6
on in this paper, gradient boosting trees will be
referred to as "Gradient Boosting" (Guelman,
2012). Extreme Gradient Boosting, which can
improve the accuracy of bank failure predictions
and help banks avoid financial crises (Carmona,
Climent and Momparler, 2019). To forecast bank
failure, Extreme Gradient Boosting (XG Boost) is a
machine learning algorithm. Single decision trees
provide a lot of advantages, but too much gradient
boosting leads to a model with hundreds or
thousands of trees. The final model is difficult to
grasp because of its complexity. XGBoost, on the
other hand, does not require the same level of care
as a black box. Although XGBoost models are
complex, they may be summarized in ways that
provide deep insight, and their predictive capability
outperforms most standard techniques. XGBoost is
a newly updated distributed gradient boosting
library. XGBoost
(http://dmlc.cs.washington.edu/xgboost.html,
accessed January 2018) was created by Tianqi
Chen, a PhD student at the University of
Washington. After winning many events, XGBoost
became well-known in the machine learning
community (Carmona, Climent and Momparler,
2019).
4.2.1) Gradient Boosting Experiment 1
Gradient boosting is a machine learning approach
that may be used to address problems like
regression and classification. It gives back a
prediction model in the form of an ensemble of
weak prediction models, which are frequently
decision trees. A gaussian loss function is used in a
gradient boosted model. There were 10,000
iterations. There were 13 predictors, and 13 of them
had a non-zero impact.
Figure 11: Gradient Boosting Influence

4.3) Difference between ANN and Gradient ii.
Boosting
Boosting is a type of feature choice. Consider
Adaboost, which is utilized in the Viola-Jones face
detector. There are many characteristics at first, but iii.
include them all in the final classifier might be
time-consuming and inaccurate. Thus, boosting
picks features by first locating the best features and iv.
then increasing the weights of misclassified data
points such that the following round of feature
selection concentrates on them. The feature
detectors in this case are regarded as weak
classifiers.
By linearly combining weak classifiers, a strong
classifier may be generated. Neural networks, on
the other hand, are more difficult to understand and
train. It is difficult to establish the importance of
characteristics for example, in ANNs. As a result,
neural networks are similar to learning black boxes.
It is difficult to extract meaningful simpler data
models from them once they have learned. They
also learn significantly differently from boosting in
that they use a gradient-based learning method to
try to minimize a cost function on all training sets.
The behavior of the total system is determined by
the learned weights and biases, and it is difficult to
derive meaningful models from such
representations ( What Is the Difference between
Boosting and Artificial Neural Networks in Data
Mining? - Quora, n.d.).
4.4) Advantages of ANN and Gradient
Boosting
Except for the differences between them they have
some advantages as well
Advantages of Artificial Neural Network
i. The development of neural network models
necessitates less formal statistical training.
ii. Complex nonlinear interactions between
independent and dependent variables can be
detected implicitly by neural network
models.
iii. All conceivable interactions between
predictor variables may be detected using
neural network models.
iv. Various training techniques may be used to
build neural networks.
from (Tu, 1996)
Advantages of Gradient Boosting
i. Frequently gives exceptional forecasting
accuracy.
7
Lots of versatility - can optimize on several
loss functions and offers numerous hyper parameter
adjustment possibilities, making the function fit
quite adaptable.
There is no need for data pre-processing; it
frequently works well with category and numerical
information as is.
Imputation is not necessary to handle
missing data.
(Gradient Boosting for Classification |
Paperspace Blog, n.d.)
4.5) Dis Advantages of ANN and Gradient
Boosting
Dis-Advantages of ANN
i. Because neural networks are a "black box,"
their capacity to clearly identify possible
causal linkages is restricted.
ii. Neural network models may be more
challenging to utilize in the field since they
need more processing resources.
iii. Neural network models are prone to
overfitting. The creation of neural network
models is empirical, and many
methodological concerns have to be
resolved.
from (Tu, 1996)
Dis-Advantages of Gradient Boosting
i. Gradient Boosting  Models will continue to
improve in order to reduce all mistakes. This
can lead to overfitting by exaggerating
outliers.
ii. Computationally costly - frequently
necessitates a large number of trees (>1000),
which can be time and memory consuming.
iii. Because of the approach's considerable
flexibility, there are numerous parameters
that interact and substantially impact its
behavior (number of iterations, tree depth,
regularization parameters, etc.). During
tuning, this necessitates a huge grid search.
iv. Less interpretive in nature, yet this may be
easily remedied with a variety of methods.
(Gradient Boosting for Classification |
Paperspace Blog, n.d.)
 8

5) RESULT AND DISCUSSION

Results of all the experiments done above are
discussed here.
5.1) Artificial Neural Network
Result for Experiment 1 for ANN is given below in
the figures 12, 13 and 14 :

Figure 14: Third Iteration Results

During this Experiment 2 for ANN, different values

were tried as an argument for above variable the
results are shown below in figure 15, 16, 17, 18, 19:

Figure 12: First Iteration Results

Figure 15: Result for Experiment 2

Figure 13: Second Iteration Results

Figure 16: Experiment 2 steps


Figure 17: Experiment 2 steps
Figure 18: Experiment 2 steps
9
Figure 19: Experiment 2 steps
5.2) Performing PCA on ANN
Plot after performing PCA on ANN
Figure 20: Plot after performing PCA on ANN
The objective was to lower both statistical error
estimates. Because a larger number of neurons
works better on sophisticated and straightforward
non-detachable input, various hidden neurons
improve classifier operation.
 The three iris species are represented by the
color red, green, and blue.
5.3) PCA on ANN Experiment 1
To do PCA on ANN in experiment 1, it created
indexes for training (50%) and validation (50%)
data. The following experiment yielded the
following results.

Figure 21: ANN Experiment 1 before PCA
Figure 22: ANN Experiment 1 after PCA
5.4) Gradient Boosting Experiment 1
The result of gradient boosting experiment is given
in the figure below:
Figure 23: Result of Gradient Boosting Experiment 1
6) CONCLUSION AND FUTURE WORK
To summaries, all of the objectives were completed
in order to save money for the bank. Based on the
criteria mentioned above, the solution was created
utilizing two unique data mining algorithms. The
two approaches are Artificial Neural Network and
Gradient Boosting. The approach used is
determined by the false positive and false negative
statistics. The accuracy of ANN is 90% and the
error rate is 9%. It is simpler to develop RF than to
10
implement ANN. Several factors, including the kind
of dataset, determine the method that is used. We
also searched for unusual patterns in the data that
may alter the model's conclusions in these tests. In
our trials, we found that boosting resulted in an
effective decrease in prediction error. In future
studies, alternative strategies will be used to reach
100 percent accuracy in Artificial Neural Network
and Gradient Boosting.
7) REFRENCES
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