RABU, 19 JANUARI 2021

OUTLOOK TECHNICAL ANALYSIS 2022 RESEARCH Technical

Analisa Teknikal Saham

STRATEGY TRADING & INVESTASI 2022: SAHAM IHSG LQ45 16 SAHAM

 ROTASI SEKTOR YEARLY Analyst: Andri Zakarias S

LEADING (BUY) : FINANCE, BASIC INDUSTRY

IMPROVING (AKUMULASI) : INFRASTRUKTUR, MINING
LAGGING (BUY ON WEAKNESS) : AGRICULTURE, ANEKA INDUSTRI, PROPERTI, BARANG
KONSUMSI, TRADE

1
 ROTASI SEKTOR WEEKLY Analyst: Andri Zakarias S

LEADING (BUY) : FINANCE TECHNOLOGY

IMPROVING (AKUMULASI) : HEALTH NONCYCLICAL
WEAKENING (DISTRIBUSI) : ENERGY TRANSPORTATION
LAGGING (BUY ON WEAKNESS) : INDUSTRY INFRASTRUKTUR PROPERTY BASIC CYCLICAL

2
 TOTAL MONTHLY RETURN OF JCI 2003 – 2021 Analyst: Andri Zakarias S

3
 Analyst: Andri Zakarias S

HOT ISSUE

PROS: CONS:

1. Kuatnya aliran dana masuk ke pasar modal. Net 1. Melambatnya ekonomi RI di Q4 – Q1 2022,
buy asing 2021 sebesar Rp 35 Triliun data GDP Q4 Indonesia rilis 5 Februari 2022.

2. Ekspektasi pemulihan ekonomi Indonesia di 2. Kekhawatiran melonjaknya positif covid di

2022 (commodity, melandainya kasus covid19, awal 2022 (varian mutasi covid19) Omicron.
membaiknya C/A defisit, trade balance).
3. Isu awal tapering & kenaikan suku bunga bank
3. Supercycle commodity (coal, cpo, oil, metal) di sentral AS & bank sentral Eropa di 2022.
2022, karena krisis energi di China, Eropa.
4. Waspadai Yield obligasi 10 tahun AS & Dolar
4. 30 IPO (GoTo, J&T Express, Traveloka, Ovo, Rupiah dari isu tapering.
JDID, Mitratel & Data Center (Anak usaha
TLKM), ADHI Realty, Adaro Mineral dll. 5. Jatuh tempo pembayaran hutang BUMN di
2022 (kisaran Rp 443 triliun).
5. Window dressing (Q4 Santa Claus Rally), track
record sejak tahun 2000, Desember selalu return
positif.

4 RESEARCH Technical
 Analyst: Andri Zakarias S
CYCLE TRADING & SWING

1. JANUARY EFFECT

2. SELL IN MAY & GO AWAY

3. HALLOWEEN EFFECT

4. NOVEMBER RAIN

5. WINDOW DRESSING (END OF QUARTER)

6. SANTA CLAUS RALLY

WATCH EVENTS:

1. MUSIM LAPORAN KEUANGAN KUARTALAN

2. DIVIDEND PAYMENT

3. DATA EKONOMI / MEETING BANK SENTRAL (BI & THE FED)

4. AKSI KORPORASI (RIGHT ISSUE, TENDER OFFER, M&A, BUY BACK)

5. SIKLUS 4 – 10 TAHUN

5 RESEARCH Technical
 Analyst: Andri Zakarias S

TOP GAINER & DIVIDEN SAHAM 2021

6 RESEARCH Technical
 Analyst: Andri Zakarias S

TOP GAINER LOSER 2021

7 RESEARCH Technical
 Analyst: Andri Zakarias S

KINERJA SAHAM BANK 2021

8 RESEARCH Technical
 Analyst: Andri Zakarias S
TOP GAINER & LOSER 3 BULAN (18 JANUARI 20212)

9 RESEARCH Technical
 Analyst: Andri Zakarias S
FOREIGN NET BUY 3 – 6 BULAN (18 JANUARI 2022)

10 RESEARCH Technical
 Analyst: Andri Zakarias S

IHSG Target 2.022: Very Optimis 7.800, Moderate 7.000 – 7.100, Pesimis 5.900 – 6.000

Trend: Short Term (BULLISH selama di atas 4.711), Med Term (BEARISH Selama below 5.139), Long Term (BULLISH
selama di atas 3.911). IHSG untuk target akhir 2020, range 4.000 – 4.300 (target PESIMIS), jika break 3.911 target
Support 3.600–3.215. IHSG bullish dengan Resist 5.140 (target MODERAT), target 5.386/5.875 (target OPTIMIS)/6.050.
STRATEGY: BUY Di atas 5.800 TP 6.020/6.200 stop below 5.550.
HOLD BUY di atas 5.150 target 5.360/5.850 stop below 4.700.

11 RESEARCH Technical
 Analyst: Andri Zakarias S

IHSG CHART PATTERN MED TERM OUTLOOK

12 RESEARCH Technical
 Analyst: Andri Zakarias S

LQ45 Target Year End 2022 di 1.100 – 1.150

Trend: Short Term (BULLISH selama di atas 4.711), Med Term (BEARISH Selama below 5.139), Long Term (BULLISH
selama di atas 3.911). IHSG untuk target akhir 2020, range 4.000 – 4.300 (target PESIMIS), jika break 3.911 target
Support 3.600–3.215. IHSG bullish dengan Resist 5.140 (target MODERAT), target 5.386/5.875 (target OPTIMIS)/6.050.
STRATEGY: BUY Di atas 5.800 TP 6.020/6.200 stop below 5.550.
HOLD BUY di atas 5.150 target 5.360/5.850 stop below 4.700.

13 RESEARCH Technical
 Analyst: Andri Zakarias S

DJIA Index U.S Target 2022 Di 4.750 (Optimis), Below 33.600 (Pesimis)

Trend: Short Term (BULLISH selama di atas 4.711), Med Term (BEARISH Selama below 5.139), Long Term (BULLISH
selama di atas 3.911). IHSG untuk target akhir 2020, range 4.000 – 4.300 (target PESIMIS), jika break 3.911 target
Support 3.600–3.215. IHSG bullish dengan Resist 5.140 (target MODERAT), target 5.386/5.875 (target OPTIMIS)/6.050.
STRATEGY: BUY Di atas 5.800 TP 6.020/6.200 stop below 5.550.
HOLD BUY di atas 5.150 target 5.360/5.850 stop below 4.700.

14 RESEARCH Technical
 Analyst: Andri Zakarias S

USDIDR Target 2.022: 14.700. 15.400 (Optimis), 13.800 – 14.000 (Pesimis)

Trend: Short Term (BULLISH selama di atas 4.711), Med Term (BEARISH Selama below 5.139), Long Term (BULLISH
selama di atas 3.911). IHSG untuk target akhir 2020, range 4.000 – 4.300 (target PESIMIS), jika break 3.911 target
Support 3.600–3.215. IHSG bullish dengan Resist 5.140 (target MODERAT), target 5.386/5.875 (target OPTIMIS)/6.050.
STRATEGY: BUY Di atas 5.800 TP 6.020/6.200 stop below 5.550.
HOLD BUY di atas 5.150 target 5.360/5.850 stop below 4.700.

15 RESEARCH Technical
 Analyst: Andri Zakarias S

SUPERCYCLE COMMODITY: (CPO MYR 6.2K, CRUDE $100-$110, GOLD $1.670 – $2.100
TIN $43K – $46K, NICKEL $28K – $33k, COAL NEWCASTLE UPGRADE $296-$330)

Trend: Short Term (BULLISH selama di atas 4.711), Med Term (BEARISH Selama below 5.139), Long Term (BULLISH
selama di atas 3.911). IHSG untuk target akhir 2020, range 4.000 – 4.300 (target PESIMIS), jika break 3.911 target
Support 3.600–3.215. IHSG bullish dengan Resist 5.140 (target MODERAT), target 5.386/5.875 (target OPTIMIS)/6.050.
STRATEGY: BUY Di atas 5.800 TP 6.020/6.200 stop below 5.550.
HOLD BUY di atas 5.150 target 5.360/5.850 stop below 4.700.

16 RESEARCH Technical
 Analyst: Andri Zakarias S

Fear & Greed Index 2021: Range Konsolidasi 20/30 (Buy Area) – 70/80 (Sell Area)

17 RESEARCH Technical
 Analyst: Andri Zakarias S
SEKTOR FINANCE (ARTO BBRI BBNI; BBYB BNBA BBHI BGTG)

18 RESEARCH Technical
 Analyst: Andri Zakarias S
SEKTOR NONCYCLICAL (HMSP ICBP UNVR, DSNG LSIP)

19 RESEARCH Technical
 Analyst: Andri Zakarias S
SEKTOR TEKNOLOGI (DMMX EMTK MTDL; BUKA UVCR)

20 RESEARCH Technical
 Analyst: Andri Zakarias S
SEKTOR ENERGY (ADRO HRUM INDY PGAS; AKRA ESSA MEDC)

21 RESEARCH Technical
 Analyst: Andri Zakarias S
SEKTOR HEALTH (CARE IRRA KLBF, MIKA SAME)

22 RESEARCH Technical
 Analyst: Andri Zakarias S
SEKTOR BASIC (ANTM MDKA; CPIN JPFA; INKP; BRPT; INTP)

23 RESEARCH Technical
 Analyst: Andri Zakarias S
SEKTOR INFRASTRUKTUR (EXCL ISAT TLKM: FREN TBIG TOWR; JSMR WIKA)

24 RESEARCH Technical
 Analyst: Andri Zakarias S
SEKTOR CYCLICAL (AMRT ERAA LPPF: GJTL MARI)

25 RESEARCH Technical
 Analyst: Andri Zakarias S
SEKTOR PROPERTY (BSDE CTRA MTLA LPCK PWON)

26 RESEARCH Technical
 Analyst: Andri Zakarias S
SEKTOR TRANSPORTASI (ASSA SMDR TNCA)

27 RESEARCH Technical
 Analyst: Andri Zakarias S
SEKTOR INDUSTRY (ASII MARK MLPL UNTR)

28 RESEARCH Technical
 Analyst: Andri Zakarias S
SEKTOR IDXBUMN 20 (BBNI BBRI PGAS PTBA TLKM)

29 RESEARCH Technical
 Analyst: Andri Zakarias S
SAHAM PILIHAN 2022 PART 1

30 RESEARCH Technical
 Analyst: Andri Zakarias S
SAHAM PILIHAN 2022 PART 2

31 RESEARCH Technical
 BNIS TECHNICAL RESEARCH TEAM
Andri Zakarias Siregar - Head of Technical Analysis Research Department
andri.zakarias@bnisekuritas.co.id
Market Strategy, Commodities, Currency,
Bond & Stocks
Ext. 2054

Venia Allani Meissalina

Research Assistant
venia.allani@bnisekuritas.co.id
Data Administrator
Ext. 2050

Indah Lestari Permata Herlina

Research Assistant
indah.lestari@bnisekuritas.co.id
Data Administrator
Ext. 2073

This document is not intended to be an offer, or a satisfaction of an offer, to buy or sell relevant securities (i.e. securities mentioned herein or of the same issuer and options,
warrants or rights to or interest in any such securities). The information and opinions contained in this document have bee compiled from or arrived at in good faith from sources
believed to be reliable. No representation or warranty, expressed or implied, is made by BNI SEKURITAS or any other member of the BNI Group, including any other member of
the BNI Group from whom this document may be received, as to the accuracy or completeness of the information contained herein. All opinions and estimates in this report
constitute our judgement as of this date and are subject to change without notice.

Dokumen ini tidak diperuntukan sebagai suatu penawaran, atau permohonan dari suatu penawaran, permintaan untuk membeli atau menjual efek dan segala hal yang
berhubungan dengan efek (seperti efek yang disebutkan disini, atau dari emiten yang sama, dari waran atau hak memesan efek atau kepentingan lain dari efek tersebut). Seluruh
informasi dan opini yang terdapat dalam dokumen ini dengan cara baik telah dihimpun dari atau berasal dari sumber-sumber yang dapat dipercaya dan diandalkan. Tidak ada
pengatasnamaan atau jaminan, baik secara langsung maupun tidak langsung dari BNI SEKURITAS atau pun pihak-pihak lain dari Grup BNI, termasuk pihak-pihak lain dari Grup
BNI dari mana dokumen ini dapat diperoleh, terhadap keakuratan atau kelengkapan dari informasi yang terdapat dalam dokumen ini. Seluruh pendapat dan perkiraan dalam
laporan ini merupakan pertimbangan kami pada tanggal tertera dan dapat berubah sewaktu-waktu tanpa pemberitahuan.

32 RESEARCH Technical