China’s Strategic Seapower ‘The Politics of Force Modernization in the Nuclear Age John Wilson Lewis | and Xue Litai STANFORD UNIVERSITY PRESS Stoner, Clitoris | | |sin nations Scie ab Arms Cael vi J Hallow, Michael M. May and John W, Lewis, Ger tors Say te Cenc for laersinal ees and Arms Cnt Stanford Uniersty Sonne of photogreps avy fr photog whch wo feprodnod by peraison sanction Group il potopaps wee generously proved bY er natonn whose coperions pattly ackaowleed iy tres Sane ie ‘© rope ty he Boa of Tres fe Leland Stanford Junior Unoeity ‘pes in sh United States of Arnie iPad appeat athe end of he book seanond Univers Pe pubis aceite exste by ven Pes win be United Sexes, Canad, and Mes a Gate excl by Cambridge Uv Pros “brooke est the wor| Preface “This study isnt the ana fare of China scholars. Submarines, macear power, bllstie miles, and static doctrines touch a vase of cultures, eile, and specials, Ths oe even the suady we intended when wwe completed our history of Beijing’ early maclar weapons program {China Buds the Bom 2988), We then planned to write «companion ‘olumeon the strategie mite program, Though we did complete chat trad (Chins Ballistic Missle Program,” 1992), the situation had ‘hanged immeasrably ina few short eats "With Chinas nearotal shift 0 sol propelant rockets and the tight linkage ofthe ex-basedand new mobile alse mises, it was clear that the main story belonged to the submarinelaunched ballistic missile [SLBM) and she nuclse powered submarine. That story, moreover, a- Toad us to carry forward ur history ofthe stratepi weapons complex land its fate during dhe eaultuos decades afte the explosion of China's Fist atomic bomb in October 1964 and its multistage themonuclear weapon in June 1967. As our subtle pate, hiss an examination of the police of strate foree moderization in the decades of the 19608 throng the tos, Chinas lear ers. Tha era ranged from the polities tlhe Great Leap Forward begun in 98 0 the economic reforsof Deng izoping inthe yeas afer the Tiananmen crisis of 198 “Theale of China's political development cannot be completed without detailed understanding ofits stratepe ad defense policies, The men and ‘women who Brough de Communist revelation to the Middle Kingdom ‘per fiat and foremost older and ehey peteelved a worl of enemies ard rltary threats, We have atempted to examine tat pre-nucear word in Uncertain Partners (2993), the book we coauthored with Sergei Gon- chavov onthe creation ofthe Sino Sov aller and the oxigins of the Korean Wa, Mao Zegongs world began in war and assumed the newvi Preface ablity of future conics That worldview shaped his plies and isp Wes dad served asa constant even ashe shed between compromise and ‘Shira his effort eo deteraine Chinas future. "When we started this stacy, We realied how much we had ¢o lean ‘shop a ucler powered aubanrine ad a8 SLBM demands far eater {echasogicsHndstrial Knowledge and capaciy than bung meat “Geapont” From metallurgy to feacton, fom solid rocket propellants 0 (Mivanced guidance technology, we stretched aus ques fo understanding. ‘We devoured materalin English ad Chinese on welding, cecronis = ‘Seroater launch systems mins conto, chemicals, and submarine sy fe, Chinene deniers ad enginers, we came to understand, bad gone ‘Groagha much more demanding questo hesamesypes of materials and ine serch they gradually aoebed and embraced » concept found in asernsca based strategic programm survivable deterrence, Thateonespt inforicd thei thinkings they tugged fo their own survival during the stro years ofthe Causal Revolution “Our rererch as depended toa sigan: extent on the technical 3s sistanos ofanumber okey specials One ofthese, ob Dietz, spent hours ius dscusng the detail of mist gaidande and mss developmen ould ns have completed thie work without the knowledge heso i ‘seed over several eats Magk abit and Victor Li made ertcal con Fiisone tothe manuscript, and we also wish to thank John J Engethard, Jobe Flare, Fua Di and fou Jenny. Several ker American specialise ‘Rarcol majrassstance but asked 0 femain anonymous We espect their ‘Raucetbut acknowledge thee significant contribution wih thanks ‘We faced the challenge that comes from cing on what must sem trivial matters All hings Chinese are cited and spelled in many diferent raja The ofl spelling systems inthe People’s Republic of China and ‘alan ar quite ferent but take onaceetain political sigiianes Even from the aedemic perspective, ao speling stem is tuly adequate, and thezevera standard” crhographier all posed problems. With some mis {ing aed an exception forthe nares of some wellknown figures and Ehnctnames or example, Ching Karsbek, Quemoy, ari Yangte) and ince pple and places under the aridicion of Taiwan, we have used ‘Sundandpingin and foe Chinese place-names and boundaries, the pinyin inence in Zhomghv Renmin Gongheguo Fen Sng Dit (Colleton EF Povincal Maps ofthe People’ Republic of China Being, 1983). (Our combined labors could ot have succeded without the aid of ded jeated editors, cartographers, proofeades, and manssctipe preparers. Fete weeapeckaly wish to thank che stalls fthe Stanford University Press alo she Hoover lastinnions Fast Asian Collection, special word of ee Preface ix apprsistion gosto Gee Bonman,Caa Hyde, Dolce, A ‘cand Dayan Zane Santor Co rol curs and Ars Conk ench neat pe comple book Daring the year of rach and wit, br Center elles Cot Backer, lyon Ede, an Wika Roy unalone trent sod fapor a egy Lei shared nto of pong ean in cous ote wae nade rook pol "The geerons ep that soporte our racarch and writing cae on scr mporat earcc Wewhh thank te Carepe Cryortin af ‘Now Yorks the Calana Teamdaton, De Morons Kiwi the ser ‘iwi Fondation the Henry ae Foonditon, the Wilam and or Fewlee Fon the Joa Ds and Cathrine T MacAhor Rd ‘hon andthe Wale Shenson Fan Weise ad he aw * The Soviet engineers, convinced that concentzting ‘onthe ewin challenges of mislear propulsion and reaaunched baste tsi in pra would incu ret risks, had likewise elected to proceed quently The fst Soviet mine submarine operated on diesel powe. Having glesned some information about these foreign programs, Nie firserecommendation wa to advance pravally aod systematically and to this end, he foeased on the programs basic organizational requiements He advocated the appointment of de vapucy named Four Person Lea, Group headed by lao Shunchw and Zhang Linki to conceptalie the eps ta he eae in Bidding the nadleae-poweeed submarine (We have $eidy met Adil Lio satheman who eae inthe yearhadcrested he ‘vy’ eeaech inatiotes) Zhang Was the veeminiter ofthe Fist Min= [ntuy of Machine Building, which was then responsible for general cvian and riitacy industry Te, along with representatives Hom the Sesond ‘Ministry of Machine Building (nicest indsty) snd the Filth Academy (nie developmen), would investigate competing design appeoaches for‘ “Tetology and Self Rlionce seer aoe crass Mit eset see fate cme distant evades Ca reste one nngen a retin gar pO sey atari ieaet cee at etd i ee Se iti eared (Solsirncateatete cee tele ae encuaitersanta¢coge uchte tant weeerenras cence ay Coby ser gritcrstrtnbenrtey face ert eepamemmiedtAenomes Setar htc eae sees silo ected is iiteienn re Sere gia oatbeterenr ire actuns tse en Steere hems each Shesni ti tteaenrscaaectes Sa anette eit ef ese of ac floes nh pero Sc on a ep aetamcbammcens deter Stems Geant moe eermet eK more kel explanation that the nays partpation sie the rm ee ra Seanenats ducer ‘Technology and Self Reliance 7 chine Building, would eventual be spun off om the Fis and the follow fn Thied Ministy, athe navy would share some ofits project lated uthorty with this state organ, the navy ontiaued to play = central recting fol inthe development-of both the submarine ad the SLEM throughout. In defining this role, its worth acing, the Chinese con ‘cious studied the bureaucratic powers ad echniquesof he US, Navy= Special Projects Ofein connection mit the Polaris prosat They ike not onl the methodology but the ative econ from outside nterer ‘ence thatthe US. program appeaced 1 enjoy. Tesi orm iets ean pops ec ce SPE sat ebatee aC Cham are slider ndape dar ecient ekeeipee te sn ly Seale an tema ra Tengu Sn pe sen ee ances eg aera kara iSong nshenedme aetna ee CSASNI Even onan Tandem et ei aera i Cotstemrpinr al ietines comer Sita Wepal etch neve nn es “Zien eke aed pen eager a coin Se te el ni Rosh Sei eter Tice cs pee ein sein secu amay eeeacTbh iL Hatha ieee ees etna aot ca SOUT Sinha cenen eas “a i eg entets {tte ements 04 mowed Soya roving a became Be Southwest Restor8 ‘Technology and Self-Reliance | contained only gener pcre af the configurations of foreign nuclear powered submarines aad sketchy details on two manne power plans. As ie Bevel doughy were orca brotha the gem | aRipulace wet ane ben fa een che o some wp wtb | Tole ds mi on he biol ance™ "fai Sepemfe faving caecled wth the Fourfeson Leading ——__1—__, inte he ny end the Fs Minty oly fomed the Nodes Seezal Samatine Overall espn Soon, st nial ems BaF wnt he ene’ vl egy power plan, weapons aa ‘aise an Con Ashe mete the may Set uP sere Teclmslop ese Sctom odtmine ete se f I ications forthe sub” “fs noted, the designers eventhough they saw their own efforts afl in accord with the can-do sii of thet, had the good fortune of «= fs Sc tice] N “ping the most destructive consequences ofthe Great Leap By thé tine {hey eto workin the fall of 958, the mass movements were already be [Baring takes toll onthe other defense programs" Ordinary workers in TEpuneary organsnew caine to know morethan advanced experts and, ejecting Soviet advice and Slvprnts,atempeed to moxiy oF develop echcared weapons syteis onthe own. The result was ser chaos” "Nie Rongrhen in the meantime, was banging the submarine program goer | | ss, || ste fsa tent i seen || Nae, || tint | sbmiming | Ter ‘tig’ | | tiiae" [Pen nao even better order. In October, right ater the studies onthe design of ‘he power plant commenced, be submited yer another report co the mil {Erp commission, proposing that all stategc weapons programs be ‘rough under urided command, and thatthe Second Ministry be reor fumed within that pew command, In tesponse, che commission estab- Fated the Defense Since and Tehology Cormision with Nias direc Towerst |_| spinba reams] | aces | [ete] | as tor Ge Fig. 1) and merged the Aviason Indus] Commision and the Division for Scaife apd Technological Research ofthe General Stas, quiptoent Planning Departmen into the new bod" In Apel 1959, the Fil Department (responsible for managing nse development) was lo merged into the new commission?" With its expanded authority and teach, Nie commission could ovecsee the development of nuclear weap fe ad strategic Launch vehicles, and shared responsiblity with the navy {be conducting research and development on the auclear sub ‘Over the next moot, as Nes organization gained experience, a major che craped within the lite over the mos dsruptive Great Leap pol ‘es and one casualty ofthe toggle was Defense Minster Beng Dehua? Felloming the oust eng nd Chet of the General Staff Huang Keshesg fava Party plenum in Angus 1939, ober srr military leaders moved up ina gneleshing Lin Bio replaced Pengas defense riser, nd he, Fig ini organisation of rj on far Ox 1998). hs and the ‘asgac gues chan the cng the projets command rar = Seda shows ths cota and eporing hates doe shows ‘ordination sng the ated bis,we ‘Technology and SelReiance [Nie Roogshen, and He Long wer made vice chairmen (under Mao Ze ‘Bing of the Ceneal Miltary Consssion® Nie was the only one of the thee or then an the Poiharo, Tin Bison curn,secommended to Mao that Miser of Publi Security ‘Lao Raging be appointed chief ofthe General Stal, but To emembers that within two years afer he reamed othe anny be “became nor 30 ‘Shedane*in Liat cyes* Ac Mao moved poople rou thee personal a> STonities an rival networks grew. We hal sara many tiesto the story ‘tibese vale, for it was inthis chan political and personally conten- flo cgnate that the Chinese condcted the mucear powered submarine prokc ins pionecring and most challenging years. Yet te projet Pro Pred aad Reng’ lenders looked to Moscow to guaranie its success. “The Quest for Soviet Aid . In our eater study of the Chinese nclear weapotis program, we r= viewed brify Soret mule assistance to China ove the yeurs 1956-38. Here we want te focus principally on developments related to the 1a ‘Gur pusponeistoexamine jst how the Chinese sought maximum miliary 25 fom te Soviet Union athe moment Mao Zedong was expounding {he suet of national sellciane. For the micear submarine project [Projecso9), as we sll sc, that guest proved futile, Nevertles, before (Cietliance became an nwsnted reality, Moscow helped ch Chinese de ne and make pogss on some ofthe damental technologies nvoved, Snclading cea reactors 00 short note mone 's nl, even as the projet esi ia ib the Second Minis kept a o-peion research section at work onthe uses powerplant “The mine pid parila tention to escarch on the system's igh reste sca eth acading te pes vest ma eaxo ‘he Submarine ‘exchange, the main pumps, stabilizes, fuel rod channels, and high presse valves. Engincers labored to understand dhe safey factors and re Fbiity coefcients of shese man exctor components and undertok de tale analyse and testing te encores points. At the order of Nis ‘commission, the section efforts were supplemented by stadie a the Ghinese Academy of Sciences Harbin Civil Construction Insute (tee renamed the Harbin Engineering Mechanics Insti) and Instat of Me ‘haniess the IAB’ Reactor Engineering Research Sesion, che Harbin In “Sut of Mechanics, and he Second Ministry's Design Bureau ih ealy 1965, the economic situation iv China bad stabilized, ya Be jing et confident enowgh to rescind the austerity regulations ofthe three hard yeas” After repeated discussions, che navy che Second Ministry, and the Seven Academy of the Sach Ministry of Machine Building (espon- Sblefor warship desig) decided hat conditions weee ip fora fullaale resumption ofthe nuclear powered submarine project. “The Bolte of Competing Reactor Designs By the tine work recommenced om Project 9, the LAE’ eeator engi neering section had ben organized asthe Second Ministry's Reactor Ea- ‘Bincerng and Technology Instn (Lstitute 194)" As work was procsed- {hw along one path at 194, the munsry turned fr assistance co snotbee scare organization then working actively on marine reactor ste, the ‘Ginghne Unversity sinaeof Nuclear Energy Technology. This institute Ihed been collecting information on de naleer power pants being bil tl and hod seed on the ype of sytem es beg planned by the rman ir sllachaft fr Keenenergieverwertang in Schifbas tind Scillate mbH (GKSS) sits special inees.” Located Hamburg, GKSS had began bulaing 15,900-tonore carrier sand recarch wesc, th Otto Han The ship was tobe powered by @ Presson water racior of 38 megawats (thermal) and was designed so [fear s8o,oo0 miles at 15 knots per reactor cove: Ahough some ofthe GKSS stadies avilable to the Chinese conc that the Otto Flan ‘woul’ be “both 00 slow and ro smal w be praftable” the Qing ex pers believed the GKSS rsterahad definite dvantapes for submarine pro- Dalsion. They theorized thats sabmaine outfitted with that system would [emore robust under wartne conditions and wel quite faesshiel- ing than would sltemative designs. The information division of the ‘Ginga instate had gleaned enough cies fm publications on the Otto Hiab to desig thee own sbearne pant. “While the Qinghua engineers were reaching this decision in 1965, how: ver specialists inthe nary and user instutes,eladng ste 194, Nuclear Propulsion A hadeome toate difren coclason Theseexperts had compiled some details on the nuclear reactors installed oa te Soviet iebreaer Lenn” Then the largest mica ship the word the converted Len hal ben launched in '1957, and its designers had emphasized the eeliabliy ofthe ‘aris components under Arctic conditions over their size and weight “The conventional wisdom ofthe ome was that this type of power pant would be cheaper and probably easier to build. “Theissue was whether the Lenn system could be adapted for useinsub- ravines nan cebeakor, the level of noise i nota sesous concer, and the added weight ofthe pump, shielding, and reactors is dered to bean ‘vdvanrage, Buc these factors could constitute major Hable for a eub- ‘marine, Placing the pemaey pumps outside the main containment vessel ‘would increase the danger of team and radiation leakage should any of ‘he pumps lal and would regi er heavy sbilding oat. “The arguments for and agains che two systems galvanized inc astra de between the two design" The champions ofeach could se eat Sonal power and money at stake, and these in favor ofthe Lenin model had ee eacical advantages of th location within the Second Maistey and the prestige ofa Soviet design, More important, pera, they had Ping Shu a man with considerable pul at the top, om thei side. Fong’s father was Peng Pais peasant mary who bad led some famous bt abor- tive uprisings in Guangdong Povincein the 19205 and whose explotshad treaty impressed Mao. Hisson, hl, hal gone othe Soviet Union afer {949 to compete advanced studies in nuclear science, and then retuned {o take up a seni pos in Institute 715 of he Seventh Academy (Warship Reseatch apd Design Academy), where he conducted research on thes marine nsclez power pant Thanks to his tater esto Zhou ala, ig SuluWas able to Kep close connections withthe man who headed the powerfl Central Speci Commision, a body that had been erated in November 1963 tofoster coordination and cooperation among competing sSlement ofthe mclea inate For al he prestige Qinghtn Universi’ Instzte of Nuclear Enegy ‘Technology bad gated a thereat fit contributions to the pluoniam separation program, it had i oficial cout With he frst level decision esting with the Second Ministry Pact commit, tsendosementof the LLenin-ype reactor in late 1965 came a6 no srpese. Most ofthe people involved in the reacoe programs surmised that Peng Pai’ son ad sw the balance in favor of har design. The Qingha insite, with no formal standing inthe military industrial system, coud press te matter no far ther ‘Nevertheless, Jang Naixiang, head of che Ministry of Education and