6 Global Climate Change and bavi ronmental Degradation: Place Vulnerability and Public Health Challenges domestic and international policy makers despite ongoing debates over the proposed trajectories of change, and the validity and reliability of analytical models used to derive these probabilistic projections. Historical records dating gs far back as the 1860s, together with more recent indisputable evidence of rising global average temperatures, changing sea levels, retreating glaciers and permafrost, and extreme weather events, all point towards a warming trend. entific studies along with evidence assembled by the United Nations Tntergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) have all arrived at similar conclusions. From 1900 to 2009, global average surface temperatures increased by approximately 0.7°C (1.3°F), and since the 1950s this climatological pattern has been induced primarily by anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions. Figure 6.1 shows the anomalies in global mean temperatures when compared to mean temperatures observed in the 20th century. An upward trend is readily visible, with a faster and more sustainable rate of increase in temperatures observed during the last few decades. i The purpose of SHIRES is to examine the important S6Ureestohimaden 8@, the real or anticipated siijpactsiomliealthy, and the geographica differentiation in lity, to these impacts. We start with a : cussion of the context and key drivers of global environmental change ane en Proceed to discuss the projected health impacts and differential levels Ocal vulnerability in various world regions. 1eado con CamScannerbi 8 E departures from 1901-2000 averages a Hi é a + 5 E 4 4 2 & 3 Data Source: National Climate Data Center www.climatewatch.neaa.gov/200S/artilevclimate-changeeb- temperature Figure 6.1 Global average temperature anomalies The human influence on global climate change Climate change is formally described as ‘the change in the state of the climate that can be identified by changes in the mean and/or variability ofits properties, and that persists for an extended period, typically decades or longer’ (Heget! ct al, 2007, p667). This definition reflects the @StGHSING analytical work that Boes into providing measurable evidence of climate change MAEBhy compilts longitudinal on various climatic Propertics such as temperature, Precipitation and humidity, and @G® analysing these variables to iGO CEMA in both the statistical mean and variability of the values. For decades now, researchers have focused on estimating, these tends Of general circulation models (GCMs) and ater atistical analyses of the historical data have ni Ast century or so, there has been a significant incr Pe atures by approximately 0.6°C to 0.8°C, with the OT ‘le on record, Though the observed increase is pactly che esl Tah cece Sientie data nove confirm thae these revent chan trapping) sazse , by the excess accumulation of ve lransponaiien ih produced chiefly by the burning of fos below i SY | ETD |ollowing Primarily through the use imatological algorithms, S that over the | average tempe the hottest dec natural « Escaneado con CamScannerGLOBAL CLIMATI E Ch E ENVIRON! ‘GRADATI TANGE AND ENVIRONMENTA,, DEGRADATION | Ee 83 scussion of the effects of these smhouse gases, along with the related effe on atmospheri eee ig ed effeets from ozone deplerin rn sPneric change: Pletion and land- 1. The enhanced greenhouse effect J is a naturally occurrin, ‘ho tBy Cetation and energy balance ah smosphere by transferring energy berween thes biosphere pg, the yctse5 of insolation, absorption, reflection and reradione stu the jays a critical role in human sustenance by moderating temperat is, Process, (gatmssaniaes, Wichour it, temperatures would ikely be 33°C CFF) ee significantly greater differences between daytime and nighesioe coset ‘The greenhouse effect is largely driven by certain gases mah ee hese gases allow incoming solar radiation during the dey but edt ae geragiation of some of this energy back into the upper atmosphere chi causing the arth’ temperatures to rise. The primary greenhouse gases, when wate ces of their overall contribution to this process, are water vapour wie cantibutes 36~72 per cent), carbon dioxide (9-26 per cent), methane (49 per cent) and ozone (3-7 per cent). During the last century, the greenhouse effect has been exacerbated by the aimospheric abundance of these gases, particularly carbon dioxide and GHG which have increased consistently over the years, reaching their tighst observable levels in the 1990s. When compared to the pre-industrial ea, the observable levels of atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration were nearly athird higher in the late 1990s. Figure 6.2 shows the annual mean levels of CO, measured at Mauna Loa since 1959. Globally, the current global atmospheric level is estimated to be approximately 387 ppm, and increasing at a rate of about 2 ppm per year. (Gait SE iterSTOb this increase Nasibean aetributed to the burning of fossil fuels. allows for ioe a urce: Ty HF NOAIESRL (wa esr noaa.gowlgmdlecgg/trends) Figure 6.2 Annual atmospheric carbon dioxide levels Escaneado con CamScanner4 | ENVIRONMENTAL ASPECTS OF HEALTH DISPARITIES Significant changes in the atmospheric concentration of methang fe also occurred with more than a twofold Increase in concentation levels ic Sompared to the preindustrial era, The globally averaged atmosphere sundance for this gs in the 1990s was 1745 pars per billion, or from both natural sources (such as wetlands) and ant hropogenie source suf as lanl, ce paddies and biomass burning. Other notable green’ gases inclade nitrous oxides (NzO), and several classes of synqett halogenated compounds such as chlorofluorocarbons (CFCS), hydrocki® fuorocarbons (HCFCs) and bromofluorocarbons, that are the by-produgs’ consumer and industrial activities. The increase in the atmosphes concentration of reactive gases such as carbon monoxide (CO), yolyit organic compounds (VOC), and nitrogen oxides (NO and NO), have alse been observed. The latter are often termed indirect greenhouse gases becays they indirectly contribute to global warming by controlling the abundance of the direct greenhouse gases. en SUtfag BIMating 2. Ozone depletion a problem that could potentially lead to more rapid climate change (Hartmann ct al, 2000). @iEgSS G35 lying berween 15 and 40km (10-25 miles) above the Earth’s surface, i ‘protective layer by absorbing mose of the incoming ultraviolet radiation, As with the greenhouse effect, there has been a slow and steady modification of this natural layer over the last several decades due to A atmospheric composition. ‘Specifcally the addon of cescay tare (GGBEEENEED such as CFCs, HCFCs, methy! bromide, carbon tetrachloride and methyl chloroform have contributed to the gradual depletion of the ozone layer at a rate of about 3 per cent per decade over the last 20 years. The synergistic interaction between ozone depletion and the greenhouse effect is believed to be contributing to the pronounced changes in tropospheric and stratospheric climate during the last few decades. (GiRIOSPHET However, based on data gathered from some atmospheric models, the trapping of heat in the troposphere by the greenhouse gases cools the stratosphere and allows the formation of ice crystals which enhance ozone- depleting chemical reactions (Patz et al, 2000). These trends in the stratosphere are, in turn, likely to influence the climatic conditions on the Earth's surface, producing a strong annular component in the middle and high latitudes of both the northern and southern hemispheres. 3. Deforestation and land conversion activities A review of the primary sources of global climate change cannot be complete withour addressing the problem of deforestation and land-use/land-cover change. issions of the Current € : shly 25 per of greenhouse gases from deforestation account for roughly 25 Pe Escaneado con CamScannerGLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE AND ENVIRONMENTAL DEGRADAT ENTAL DEGI JON | 95 need greenhouse effect from anthropogenic al e effe sources (Hong eri other human activities, deforestation contributes dicate ees 2005). As Hy release OF multiple greenhouse gn Y and indireetly to t rein | an Among the greenhouse releases, carbon dioxide rema emains pile the most ‘rbon is stored primarily in third of the Barth's land problematic ft for a number of reasons, First, mats aunt forested regions account for about Mace, making such areas the most important glokal sence Though the precise amounts vary, carbon is about 20 to 50 times hy sher i forests than in cleared arcas (Houghton, 2005). These carhon sinks ace jher depending on the ecosystem, the type of region (tropical vs ern? jand-use and kand-cover_ type, reratc), of carbon, th through burning, or indirect! decomposition of organic matter, Table 6.1 shows the percentage of initial stocks lost to the atmosphere by ation and land conversion activities. The largest los and paste nver “activ are from activities. Historical data show that during the only abou wever, there has been a fivefold increase and MAW agricultural and pastoral The carliest conversions took place in the temperate regions, primarily in Europe, China and the Indian subcontinent. Europe reportedly had cleared up to 80 per cent of its agricultural areas by the 1860s (Forster et al, 2007). Agricultural and in these regions continued up until the 1950s, In significant changes have taken place in the land conversion activities recent decades, however, the most tropical regions, with rates of land conversion, forests are likely to be depleted in tropical Asia and West Africa within the next few decades. Unless major steps are taken soon to curb such activities, the changes in the forested landscapes would continue to amplify the greenhouse effect. Table 6.1 Carbon stocks lost to deforestation and land conversion activities and use Carbon lost to the atmasphere expressed a5 a % of inital carbon stocks ultvated land ‘90-100 Pasture 90-100 egraclec! croplands/pasture aa ifting cultivation 25 25-50 Escaneado con CamScannerSTS OF HEALTH DISPARITIES — 36 | ENVIRONMENTAL AS Regional differentiation of the impacts of climate change ve predicted with a 90 per cent confidence that anywhere Scientists ha average’ Vegetation changes (K; Trenberth, 2003). There are indications that many of these in many parts of the world. As pers reece lence of these changes mounts, the accumulating information garnered from different world regions suggests (Epstein, 2001; Hess et al, 20) ern apace; ee ala anticipated changes in climate. For example, the warming trend is current occurring Further the winter warming appears to be than the tropical regions (Houghton, 1995; Easterling et al, observable trends are fairly consistent with the climatic scenarios some of the major climate models (The Met Office, 2009). \ recent version cy the Hadley Centre Coupled Model (HadCM3) projects a strong region component in average winter temperatures by 2100 (sec Figure 6.3). Changes in with heavier | expected around the tropical regions, while other areas are decline in annual average precipitation (Figure 6.3b). {Kart ang environmental 2000), These postulated by els expected to see a Change in December January-February average sua from 1960-1990 to 2070-2100 from Hi we air temperature IadCM3 [S924 180 150W RoW 9 7 et OW GOW a0W 0 ea 1 ace: Adopted trom ‘Ahoted hom vowametotice.govukicimatechanyel Figure 63a HadGM3 global winter temperatures Escaneado con CamScannerGLOBAL LIMATE CHANG! EAND ENVIRONMENTAL DEGRADATION | g7 Change in ant everage prec Fro 1960-1990 102070, Dron a Ne Ta ae o| Ns es as SS so 150 _120W_90W 6OW 30W Units: millimetres per a 120 150E 10 UMin: 1.6 Mav: 4.7 Source: Adapted from wow.metoftice.gov.uk/elmatechanges igure 6.3b HadCM3 global precipitation le vels with narural biogeochemical eycles, the expected changes in climate will trigger a series of synergistic interactions and feedback loops among the basi components of the biosphere. Changes in temperature and precipitation will likely be accompanied by changes in annual average soil moisture content with _an expected reduction in regions such as Amazonia, Southwestern Africa and in (Gelowland areas of northern Eurasia Land and sea differences in the warming trend will result in an observable amount of heat retention within the oceans thus accelerating the melting of sea ice and ice shelves around the world. Evidence also shows that this accelerated heating of the land will lead to an GENS) contributing further to the release of significant levels of methane into the atmosphere. Similarly, the intense heating of land/sea surfaces will inthe atmosphere, contributing further to a highly unstable climate system. People, place and regional vulnerability to climate change anging climate, ‘These hazards are expected (0 litical and social systems of many are associated with the ch: significantly % Bnilicantly disrupr_the economic Countries, Escaneado con CamScanner7 OF HEALTH DISPARITIES " 88 | ENVIRONMENTAL ASI qeameegaeralis (ines 1999 Pats andl Kovars, 20025 Hess e 2008). ad eli change se EEE EST pated cin time, Societal impacts would age Like the inmate charge Foo at sks among different population spatially differentiated rr poli more vulnerable than others. Spe pregnant or lactating women, would be the most vulnerable, Their ey compounded further by nti Broun, area cifically, and i ill be some population groups will escribed earlier in ty preceding chapters. Inthe United States, for example, the 2005 Hurricane Katrina disaster uncovered the deep divide by race an els inthe iy 0 New Oren A geographical analysis of the environmental eal hazards resulting fom atastrophie event showed that the most vulnerable populations residing ine maximum inundated areas were African American and low-income popular; (Asomaning, 2008). FISKE, including the biophysical changes that are likely to occur in that location, the population characteristics, and the range of social, institutional, technological set behavioural measures taken, if any, to alleviate these challenges, The model of place vulnerability to climate change hazards (THEESRCEPRONPCEMUEABIY has been researched extensively in the social sciences over the last few decades, with a number of conceptual frameworks -eveloned 0 cape the physical and human dimensions of scp One of the most comprehensive geographic frameworks is (*: EME (Figure 6.4). This model was first proposed by Cutter (1996), and has since being applied in several studies of geoenvironmental hazards (Cutter et al, 2000; 2003). In this model the potential for environmental hazards is largely dependent on the risks (the probability that the hazardous events will occur) and the measures taken to minimize those risks (mitigation). ORI aEEOMTER whic reflects the site and situational characteristics ofthe places including their proximity to the source of the threat) and (ii)@H@SOGia) (CORRE hn he concn nat is probably the most impor t dimension to evaluate because it captures as well as chronic heath conditions that may be exacerbated by climate change hazards. This soci construct also includ es i 7 a is in terms of dec en ces the perception and previous experiences of css "ms of dealing with such hazards, and their ability to cope, adapt or bout back from such events, “Also relevant in ie fraseructurl faclities such as trans ; place vulnerability model are the critical in ae Portation networks, dams, sewage treatment Escaneado con CamScannerTr GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE AND ENVIRONMENTAL DEGRADATION | a9 source: Cutter (1998) Figure 6.4 Hazards-of-Place model industries, hospitals, utilities and other ‘Ag shown in the model, all of these indicators collectively influence the valnerability in a given place. The geographic context impacts the biophysical vulnerability whereas the social fabric accounts for social vulnerability. QB The use of biophysical and social indicators to assess place vulnerability to climate change hazards is suitable for finer geographic scales; however, there are examples of such applications at regional and global scales particularly since the initial assessments of climate change have been mostly completed at these aggregate levels. In exploring the potential for loss, biophysical assessments at and vector border regions where disease vectors are likely to expand their geographic range. In the United States, for example, Hess et al (2008) have identified the coastal counties consisting of $3 per cent of the US population as one of the most vulnerable areas for climate change. A rise in tropical cyclone intensity, attributed to elevated sea-surface ‘emperatures during the last three decades, has already been observed around Stray Along with the increased likelihood for waterborne, food-borne and oss int Cos these areas are susceptible to shoreline erosion, wetland ale subsidence with significant impacts anticipated on housings Southwest ml and critical infrastructural facilities. The arid areas in the ern United States are also susceptible to these impeding hazards, with 4 warmer cli ; climate expected to result in permanent drought conditions. hen > residents such as the United States, S inthe to climate Escaneado con CamScanner90 riers haracteristics of their environments. The societies are bur in biophy ara further by significant rates of poverty, ebanization ang oid Population growth in low-lying coastal areas that are suscepible to sea-level rise. Sug evaluating the regional impacts of sla change ese regions haye identi cific sectors that are vulnerable. isa the scr tht ae mot likely ro be adversely affected ae linked food security, coastal zones vulnerable to sea-level rise, the greater incidence gp extreme weather events (monsoons, typhoons, floods and landslides), and thy diffusion of vector-borne diseases. There are also concerns that climate chan will exacerbate the threat to biodiversity in the region as a result of land conversion activities and growing pressure from burgeoning populations, (GUGREAPAHEHER the impacts of climate change are projected to be wide ranging given the complex physiography of the region including its climatic heterogeneity and varying ecological systems. However, the key areas of concern are similar to the other developing regions, specifically in the areas of water resources, agriculture and plantation forestry, forest fragmentation and degradation resulting in biodiversity loss, sea-level rise and human health. An increase in El Nifio-like mean conditions is expected, potentially resulting in prolonged droughts in regions such as Amazonia, Mexico and Central America with an increased likelihood of forest fires. El Nifio and La Nifia-like conditions are also likely to increase disease vector populations, with likely implications for human health. Finally, éMffiga remains one of the most vulnerable regions to climate change and scientists are particularly worried about the likely impacts in the fglowing Current and anticipated health outcomes of global climate change Scientists have identified a range of (Patz et al, 2000; Daszak et al, 200: Greenough et al, 2001; Confalonieri et al, 2007). For the purposes of our discussion in this text, these outcomes are organized intoGixiareas> * Thermal stress @ Extreme events and meteorological hazards @ Air pollution @ Emergent and re-emergent infectious diseases @ Food insecurity @ Social and economic disruptions. As summarized in Table 6.2, some of the anticipated health effects from these hazards will be @ig6G® originating primarily from exposure fo the changing. Escaneado con CamScannerGLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE AND ENVIRONMENTAL DEGRADATION | ” fable 6.2 Current and anticipated health effects of climate change Currentfantcipated health effects i —““io + Increased risk of death . ——_ death and serious ilness principally in older age groups, those with pre-existing cardi . iorespirat diseases, and the urban poor ° prey * Decrease in cold-related mortality (winter deaths) in many temperate counties vpeather event: Storms, + LOSS of Ife injury, psychological esrss exe wets, cyclones * Greater frequency of infectious disease nds, * Change in transportation of airborne pollutants (pollen, jirpalto fossil fuel pollutants) ' + Increased concentration of ground-level azone * Increase in pollutants from forest and rangeland fires, thereby increasing outpatient visits for respiratory disease and eye symptoms jction and supply + Disruptions or local decreases in food supply lead to Food pro malnutrition, particularly in places with poor access to markets borne infectious disease _» Altered range and seasonality of transmission of many vectorbor vector-borne diseases (malaria, Lyme disease, encephalitis) some infectious disease + Heavy rainfall events can transport microbiological agents Weterbor into drinking water sources (causing cryptosporidiosis, giardiasis, salmonellosis, amoebiasis, typhoid and other infections) «Surface temperature anomalies in coastal and inland lake waters have been associated with cholera epidemics © Changes in the marine environment may alter risks of bio-toxin poisoning from human consumption of fish and shelifish _ + Displacement of island and coastal populations Sad econo ons eof shelter after exe weather evens « Damage to infrastructure for provision of health services + Increased demand for health services Sauce: MeMichel etal (2003) Climate Change and Human Health: Risks and Responses, WHONVMO/UNEP climatic elements such as excessive heat or cold temperature, atmospheric concentration of air pollutants or severe storms and flooding events. Other health outcomes will be (im@lif@6B as a result of the multiple roures, and Pathways through which old or new @is@ase™pathogens are likely to impact eople in their communities. For example, the changing climate may alter the tclogical characteristics of certain areas, and in the process reduce the *wicultural potential of residents in those areas. Changes in temperature and ait . ié fi f Peciptation levels may contribute to the expansion of the geographic fog - Bee esatsresulting in a greater incidence of transmissible diseases. Tes red i ‘ond to these unexpec ranges, as residents resp Escaneado con CamScannerPALIEL DIOPARE ETS 92 ENVIRONMENTAL ASPECTS O1 sprrently, the availability of concrete data substantiating these hey ee The reasons for the somes is relatively limited. outcomes is re y he teats ve delay in epide due in part ro the latency of human clseate occurrence, but More ar importantly to the complex of environmental disca ly TO emerge iom, The typology bu ae change so varies from acute and chronic jHncases, common and non-communicable diseases, to nutritional health outcomes ang psychological disorders. «ance euardine the health Despite the difficulties noted above, evidence regarding the health impacts | and global climate change is gradually beginning to trickle into the public health literature. Accounts of record-breaking temperature anrremes have been reported in several cities in the United States and actos Europe, In Chicago for example, a five-day heatwave in 1995 resulted in 709 excess deaths, about 85 per cent higher than the number recorded during the same period of the preceding year (Patz et al, 2000). In another study of daily maximum remperature data for Western Europe, the researchers found that over the period 1880 to 2005, the length of summer heatwaves in the region doubled and the frequency of hot days almost tripled (Della-Marta et al, 2007), This was most evident in France where researchers observed that the 6452 excess deaths in 2003, and 2065 excess deaths in 2006 were both caused by heatwaves (Fouillet ct al, 2008), (Heese ane nO MADER iNINErORIMENVEl tS Comgsmndihbenlsgowtenmes By far the most progress so far has been in the study of emergent/re-emergent infectious diseases, an area that we shall turn to in the next chapter. of environmenta Chapter summary ‘Several environmental health challenges lic ahead as possibly irreversible As illuserated in this chapter, climate change along with its current and anticipated health impacts are geographically di ted, with broad regional impacts but local contextual effect in specific places with CERES GHOMEPSPULAOREBFONpS. ‘Tackling these challenges will require the knowledge and analytical we face the long-term and jerenti ce t0 minimize, adapt or respond to these that can be put in pk ved analytical tools will not be sufficient pressures. The sole use of computer however. to devise ange. In the next chapteh studies drawn from the ent diseases meaningful and cost-effective s we shall examine some of these efforts using ¢ study of West Nile virus and malaria, two emergent and 1% associated with global climate change. mer Escaneado con CamScannerF GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE AND ENVIRONMENTAL, DEGRADATION | ga. peferences to climate change au y MRE andl extremes iN cu decrees in coastal Ivhazards: Spatial aalysi 3S ilysisat Now Ortoansattey Department of Geoxraphy, Ninghaniton Universinn NY, mn ' . Us, Menne, Bh, Akhtar, Ry Ebi, Re Rovate it jc i etic, My Ravats, Revieh, Be and Woodward, A; (2007) Human health’ in Party Ato OA palurikof, J. P., van der Linden, P. J. and H sons CEL (eds) Climate Change 2 Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability, Contvibution of Working Group Ito the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovermmental Panel on Cline Change, Cambridge Un ty Press, Cambridge, UK, pp391=431 . carter, S. 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