Coherent modeling and forecasting of mortality patterns for

subpopulations using multi-way analysis of compositions: An

application to Canadian provinces

Marie-Pier Bergeron-Boucher
Violetta Simonacci
Jim Oeppen
Michele Gallo

Mortality levels for provinces in a country generally change in a similar fashion over time,
as they often share common historical experiences in term of health, culture and economics.
Forecasting mortality for such populations should thus consider the correlation between
their mortality levels. In this perspective, we suggest using multi-way techniques to
forecast the mortality of Canadian provinces. Specifically, we apply a Tucker3
decomposition, a generalization of principal component analysis (PCA), to a three
dimensional matrix of life table deaths by time, age and province. Our model is adapted to
the constrained nature of the life table deaths dataset by using a compositional analysis
approach. This novel procedure allows us to identify the province-specific age-pattern and
time-index, but also to identify age and time trends common to all provinces. The results
show that all Canadian provinces have a very similar mortality pattern, which suggests that
using common age and time trends, taking into account province specific markers, would
be appropriate to forecast their mortality coherently.

1. BACKGROUND

Methods to model and forecast mortality have improved considerably in recent years. The work of Lee and
Carter (1992) deserves special attention. The authors suggest using principal component analysis (PCA) to
describe and forecast mortality. From a centered matrix of logged death rates, by time t and age x, an age-
pattern of mortality (βx) and a mortality time-index vector (κt) can be estimated using a rank-1 approximation
of the matrix by singular value decomposition (SVD). The Lee-Carter (LC) model has been used extensively
to forecast mortality. It has many advantages such as 1) its simplicity; 2) minimal subjective judgment is

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involved; 3) a large proportion of the variability is explained by the underlying model (Booth and Tickle
2008). This procedure tends, however, to overestimate the future level of mortality due to its assumption of a
constant rate of mortality improvement by age. This last assumption is often inappropriate, especially at
older ages (Booth et al., 2002; Booth and Tickle, 2008; Kannisto et al., 1994; Bongaarts, 2005). Several
extensions and modification have been developed in order to improve the original LC model (Lee and Miller
2001; Li and Lee 2005; Booth et al. 2002).

Oeppen (2008) suggested using a matrix of life table deaths (dx, t), instead of death rates (mx, t), and proposed
treating the data as compositional. Compositional data are non-negative values representing parts of a whole
which are constrained to sum to a constant. Compositions are thus vectors of relative information (Aitchison
1986). The life table deaths for year t can therefore be seen as an age-composition of the total number of
deaths for that year, since their sum is always equal to the life table radix. Standard statistical techniques
cannot be applied directly to compositions because their values, under the constant sum constraint, are forced
to vary between two limits. This aspect alters the relationship between parts and becomes manifest in their
covariance structure (Aitchison 1986). A set of tools have been introduced by Aitchison (1986) to deal with
compositional data. Using Aitchison procedures, Oeppen (2008) presented an approach, similar to the LC
method, to model and forecast mortality within a Compositional Data Analysis (CoDa) framework.

While keeping the same advantages listed above for the LC model, the CoDa approach proposed by Oeppen
(2008) has two additional advantages: 1) the latter approach considers the covariance among mortality
components (ages and causes of death), which is not explicitly taken into account by the LC model and; 2)
the model is generally less pessimistic about the future of mortality then the LC model. The LC model often
leads to too pessimistic forecasts due to its assumption of constant rate of mortality improvement.

The Lee-Carter and Oeppen models have some limitations, however, when many populations need to be
modeled or forecast simultaneously. Mortality levels among different populations can be correlated;
changing in a similar way over time. Some examples of such populations are mortality by provinces in a
country, by countries in a region (industrialized countries) or by sex. If mortality trends for these populations
are forecast separately, the trends will diverge in the long term even when observations suggest that they
have been converging (Li and Lee 2005). Non-divergent forecasts are referred to as coherent.

As a solution, Li and Lee (2005) suggest extending the Lee-Carter model by using a common factor for all
populations, representing their historical commonalities, and then calculating the population-specific
deviation from the common factor. However, these models require a great number of parameters, as the age-
pattern and the time-index parameters need to be provided for the common factor and for each population-

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specific deviation. Carter and Lee (1992) suggest modeling a single time-index by sex. Lee and Nault (1993)
even suggest using the same time-index and age-pattern for each of the Canadian provinces, but note that this
model can only work if the age-patterns by province do not vary significantly. More recently Russolillo et al.
(2011) extended the LC model by using a three-way analysis and applied the methodology to 10 European
countries.

If two or more populations are assumed to have similar age and time patterns of mortality, a multi-way
analysis can be carried out to describe these patterns, and, if the similarities are confirmed, the results can be
adopted for forecasting. Multi-way techniques are used for analyzing data presented in multi-dimensional
arrays. In this context, life table deaths for different populations can be organized in tridimensional arrays
with the three indices or modes set as time, age and population.

The use of a multi-way model could reduce the number of parameters and allow us to explore mortality
patterns of different time-by-age matrices at the same time. The aim of this paper is to explore the possibility
of simultaneously modeling and forecasting the compositional structure of mortality for different
populations. In order to test the proposed methodology, a multi-way analysis will be carried out on the life
table deaths of Canadian provinces and territories.

2. METHODOLOGY

As mentioned previously, compositional data are vectors of relative information constrained to sum to a
constant. From a geometric stand point, the constant sum constraint forces compositions in a subspace of the
real space, known as the simplex, which does not follow the rules of Euclidean geometry. As a solution,
Aitchison (1986) proposed to move from the simplex to real space through log-ratio transformation of
compositions, so that standard statistical tools can be applied (for more details on Compositional Data
(CoDa) see Egozcue et al, 2003, 2005, 2006, 2011; Pawlowsky-Glahn, 2003; Pawlowsky-Glahn et al, 2001;
and Billheimer, 2001). Following this line of research, Oeppen (2008) introduced a forecast model within a
CoDa framework, using the centered log-ratio transformation (clr). The clr transformation comprises the
logarithm of a composition (dx) divided by its geometric mean. This transformation allows the data to vary
freely outside the defined constraint, that is between 0 and the life table radix (for more details, see Aitchison
(1986)).

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Using Compositional Data Analysis (CoDa) of life table deaths, dx,t, offers many advantages in a forecasting
context as enumerated previously. In this perspective, a comparative study between an independent two-way
and a three-way analysis of compositions is carried out. The two procedures are described below.

2.1 The two-way compositional data model

The two-way CoDa forecast model was introduced by Oeppen (2008). Using singular value decomposition
(SVD), the model decomposes a centered matrix, expressed in clr coordinates, of life table deaths, dx,t, by
time t and age x, representing the first and second mode respectively. The model can be written as:

clr(dx,t αx) = ∑ =1 ( � � ) + ��,� ,

where αx represents the age-specific geometric means, κtp and βxp are the time-index and age-pattern loading
matrices respectively, are the singular values and ��,� are the errors. The symbol ⊝ is a perturbation
procedure which consist in dividing a composition by another composition, component-wise, while
preserving the constant sum. This is a standard operation in CoDa (Aitchison 1986). The notation p
represents the number of components extracted. The first component of each mode (p=1) is the vector
explaining the greatest variance, the second component (p=2) is the second most representative vector, etc.
As with the LC model, the dx,t in a CoDa approach are forecast by extrapolating the time-index κtp using
time-series models.

2.2 The three-way compositional data model

Multi-way models are described as generalizations of a two-way SVD for arrays of higher order.
Specifically, the Tucker3 model is the most flexible multi-way procedure and can essentially be seen as a
three-way principal component analysis (for more details see Kroonenberg 2008). Using the sum notation, it
can be written as follows:

( �,�,� ⊝ ��,� ) = ∑ =1 ∑ =1 ∑ =1 � � � � + ��,�,� ,

where dx,t,i are the life table deaths at time t, age x, and for population i, which represent the first, second and
third mode, respectively. The element αx,i is the age-specific geometric mean for population i, the indices p, q
and r are the number of components extracted for the first, second and third mode, and xp, ktq and ir

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represent respectively the generic elements of the loading matrices for the age-pattern, time-index and the
population markers. The element � is the weight of each pqr combination of components. In this paper,
based on the results of the Convex Hull procedure (Ceulemans et al, 2006), only two components will be
considered for each mode of the analysis, therefore we will have p=q=r=2.

The Tucker3 model was first adapted to compositions by Gallo (2013; Gallo et al 2013a, 2013b), who
explored the complications of working with three-way CoDa. This multi-way tool has many advantages and
can help us accomplish several goals. First of all, it is possible to evaluate, from a compositional standpoint,
if the morality structure of different populations are actually similar to each other. In other words, by
yielding populations’ profiles on the basis of their compositional structure of mortality throughout the years,
it is possible to assess whether the populations considered really have parallel characteristics. The Tucker 3
model can also identify a specific age-pattern and time-index for each population, as well as a common age
and time trend. Another beneficial aspect is the possibility of detecting other information of interest by
examining the variability explained by the other factors extracted for each mode separately. This step will
enable us to identify other phenomena that, even if they are not useful for forecasting, might still be worth
exploring for future research.

If the time-index and age-pattern for different populations are similar, the use of the common time-index and
age-pattern, with population-specific markers, could be an appropriate way to forecast these populations
coherently.

Figure 1: Illustration of the three-way model with time t as first mode, age x as second mode and population
i as third mode.

2.3 Forecasting the time-index

As for the Lee-Carter model (Lee and Carter 1992) and two-way CoDa model, mortality can be forecast
using a three-way model by extrapolating the time-index � , using a time-series approach. Based on the best

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AIC value for the first component of the time-index, �1 , the ARIMA model of order (0,1,0), or random-
walk with drift, has been selected to forecast Canadian mortality by province.

The prediction intervals are drawn based by using 10000 simulations with resampled errors (bootstrap) of the
time-index.

3. DATA

The above methodology is applied to the mortality of Canadian provinces and territories for both sexes
combined. Canada comprises 10 provinces: Alberta (AB), British Columbia (BC), Manitoba (MB), New
Brunswick (NB), Newfoundland and Labrador (NL), Nova Scotia (NS), Ontario (ON), Prince Edward Island
(PE), Quebec (QC) and Saskatchewan (SK); and three territories: Yukon, Northwest Territories and Nunavut
(TR). The data were extracted from the Canadian Human Mortality Database (CHMD 2016). The database
offers information on death counts, exposure to risk and death rates for all provinces and territories, with the
exception of Nunavut, officially separated from the Northwest Territories in 1999.

We use data from 1960 until 2009 as our reference period for the forecasts. To avoid problems with zero
death counts, we use tables of the life tables deaths (dx,t) by 5-year age-groups and 5-year time-period. When
zeros are present in a composition, the log-ratio representation (clr) is problematic. Due to the small
population and deaths counts in the territories, there are many 0 values observed for data by single year of
age and calendar. The CHMD also do not compute life tables by single calendar year for Yukon and the
Northwest Territories due to the small numbers problems (CHMD 2016). Additionally, we use an average of
the dx,t of Yukon and the Northwest Territories, labeled Territories (TR), to avoid 1) giving too much weight
to these regions in our forecast and 2) further problems with zero death counts.

4. THE MODEL

4.1 The parameters and their interpretation

Figure 2 shows the two most representative components of the time, age and population modes estimated
with the Tucker3 model. In each representation, the second component has been scaled down on the basis of
its relative contribution with respect to the first component to give a visual impression of its importance.
When using the first components only, the explained variance of the model is 86.4%. When using the two

6
most representative components, the explained variance is 89.6%. The first components (p=q=r=1) are thus
explaining a great deal of the variance and can be considered as very good approximations of the patterns
driving the mortality trends in Canada. Considering the second components for each mode only increases the
explained variance by 3.2%.

Similar results are found, for most provinces, when using a two-way analysis. Using only the first
components (p=1) explains 90% or more of the variance for the different populations and adding a second
component only increases the explained variance by less than 4%, with the exception of Prince Edouard
Island and the territories. For the forecast, we will thus only use the first component for both the two-way
and three-way approaches.

Figure 2: Two main components for the Tucker3 time-index (a), age-pattern (b) and population-specific
markers (c) for Canadian provinces and territories.

The first component of the time-index, shown in Figure 2 a), appears linear, which represent an advantage
for the forecasting phase. The time-pattern can be interpreted as an index of the general level of mortality
over time.

In a CoDa setting, the age-pattern indicates how life table deaths are transferred from one age group to
another. As mentioned previously, the CoDa method models a shift of deaths across age groups, and in
practice from younger ages towards older ages. This process can be referred to as a life-saving model. More

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specifically, deaths at ages where the age-pattern is negative will be transferred towards age groups where
the age-pattern is positive. The interpretation of the time- and age-pattern is the same for both the two- and
three-way models.

Figure 2 c) shows the province-specific intensity of the process estimated with the three-way model only.
The population-specific markers can be interpreted as how fast each province is experiencing the common
mortality changes. The province of Quebec has, for example, experienced a more rapid mortality decline
than the other provinces. This might come from the fact that Quebec had the lowest life expectancy among
the provinces in the early 1960s and has recorded relatively rapid gains in life expectancy since. By 2005-
2009, Quebec had the third highest life expectancy in Canada, behind Ontario and British-Colombia. Based
on Figure 2 c), we can distinguish three groups of provinces and territories: 1) the slow pace provinces:
Alberta, Manitoba, Saskatchewan, Newfoundland and the territories, 2) the medium pace: British Columbia,
Ontario, New Brunswick, Nova Scotia and Prince Edward Island and 3) the fast pace: Quebec.

4.1 Common age and time indexes

As mentioned previously, if the time-index and age-pattern for all Canadian provinces and territories are
similar, the idea of using a single time- and age-pattern for all populations would be compelling. Figure 3
shows the first component (p=q=1) of the time- and age-index estimated for each single province
independently with a two-way SVD, as well as the indexes found with the three-way (Tucker3) model for all
provinces. This Figure emphasizes that there are very similar time- and age-patterns of mortality among
Canadian provinces and territories and that the three-way analysis is able to estimate these patterns quite
well. The age-pattern for the territories differs however from the provinces, which might lead to some errors
in the model. The territories’ time-pattern is however very similar to the provinces. These results suggest that
the three-way analysis could thus offer a good approximation of the Canadian provinces’ and territories’
mortality.

A more immediate representation of how province mortality trends diverge from each other can be seen in
Figure 4, where only three-way results have been used. Here, the time-pattern is nested within the province
specific markers and plotted in the variable space. In a Tucker3 model, the three modes of the analysis are
estimated separately, i.e. there is no assumption about the underlying patterns being the same for all
populations. As a consequence, population markers preserve information about individual differences among
provinces. This information, when combined with the common time trend gives us an idea of how each
province or territory "moves" throughout the years with respect to the variables or, in other words, represents

8
their trajectories over time. To better visualize these trends, the first two components for each mode have
been plotted.

Figure 3: Time- and age-index of Canadian provinces and territories based on a two-way SVD and the
common time- and age-index estimated from a Tucker3 model.

Figure 4: Trajectory plot of the mortality structure of Canadian provinces through the years in the space
spanned by the two most representative components

As we can see, all the provinces seem to follow an almost identical pattern suggesting that a common
forecasting model is appropriate. The only discrepancy seems to concern the population of the territories

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combined which appears to have a trajectory that does not follow quite the same trend. It is, however,
important to notice that most of that difference is represented by the second component (vertical axis)
therefore it will not influence the common time-index and age-pattern, resulting from the loadings of the first
component only (as shown in Figure 3). From this plot it is also possible to detect which age groups have
seen their proportion change over time and throughout provinces in a similar manner. For example, age
groups from 0 to 10 appear to have had a similar variation, in the opposite direction to the groups 60 to 94.

5. THE FORECASTS

Figure 5 presents the life expectancy at birth forecasts for Canadian provinces and territories with a three-
way and two-way (province-independent forecast) analysis, using the first component only (p=q=r=1). The
Figure shows that the life expectancies for the provinces, excluding the territories, have been converging
until the 1980s and have since then started diverging. These results are also confirmed in Table 1. The
forecasts with both models predict that the divergence among the provinces’ mortality will continue.
However, forecasting with a three-way analysis predicts that the divergence will be more modest. When
using a three-way model, the range of life expectancy values for the provinces only would be 4.2 years in
2040-2044, while the divergence would be larger, i.e. 5.8 years, with the province-independent forecasts
based on a two-way analysis.

Figure 5: Life expectancy at birth forecast until 2045 for Canadian provinces and territories, based on a
three-way and two-way independent models.

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The forecast divergence emerging from the three-way analysis might come from the difference in the
population markers, and thus in the intensity of the general mortality process experienced by each province.
Table 1 presents the results divided into the three population groups established in the previous section and
based on the first component of the population markers (γ�1 ). This Table shows that the estimated increase in
life expectancy is more similar within province groups. The range for the provinces in group 2, i.e. the
medium pace provinces, stays at a value of 1.4 from 2005-09 until 2040-44. This is a consequence of what
can be seen in Figures 2 c) which shows that the provinces included in this group have very similar
population markers on the first component. More differences in the population markers are, on the other
hand, observed within group 1, i.e. the slow pace group. As a result, the increase in life expectancy for these
provinces kept a relatively similar pace, but still keeps diverging moderately. Quebec was not included in
one of these two groups as its population marker differs from the other provinces. The three-way model
predicts that the life expectancy for Quebec will keep increasing faster than the life expectancy for the other
provinces.

Table 1: Life expectancy range of the Canadian provinces and territories observed and forecast
Group 1
Without the
All Without the Group 2
Territories All
Territories

1960-64 8.3 2.8 8.3 1.8 0.8

1980-84 6.2 1.5 6.0 1.2 1.5
2005-2009 5.5 2.6 4.7 1.8 1.4

Three-way
6.8 4.2 4.7 2.1 1.4
model 2040-44

Two-way model
9.3 5.8 7.0 3.4 3.0
2040-44

Given these considerations, the three-way model thus allows for more coherent forecasts than the
independent two-way model, especially for the provinces with similar population markers. However, as the
provinces are known to have different paces of mortality decrease over time, the model predicts that these
tendencies will continue in the future.

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6. DISCUSSION

The above results show that the three-way analysis of compositions is a promising methodology to forecast
the mortality of Canadian provinces and territories in a more coherent way. It proved to be a very useful tool
in this context as the populations considered have a similar time- and age-pattern.

The three-way model could be applied in other contexts, such as forecasting coherently the mortality by sex
or by country. However, no matter the context, the time- and age-pattern of the different populations should
not vary significantly from one-another for the model to make sense. If diverging patterns are observed, the
errors resulting from modeling and forecasting mortality with a three-way model could be considerable.
Coherent forecasts for these populations could alternatively be done with methods using an average trend
and population-specific deviation factors, as presented by Li and Lee (2005) and Torri and Vaupel (2012).
These models are more appropriate to forecast coherently the mortality of populations recording greater
differences in their time- and age-patterns, as even if they use a common mortality trend among different
populations, they still account for population-specific deviation of the time- and age-patterns. Russilillo and
al. (2011) also suggest using only the time-index estimated from a three-way model to forecast mortality.
This could also be an option in contexts where only the time-index of different populations is similar.

The forecasts have been carried out on 5x5 tables of life table deaths to avoid problems with zeros death
counts. The methodology could, however, easily be extended to single-years of age and calendar. The results
should not, in theory, change by much.

The three-way model is able to forecast the mortality by province and territories more coherently than
independent forecasts. However, the range of life expectancy values is increasing even with this approach,
though more moderately than with the two-way model. This is a direct consequence of the different
estimated population markers. The mortality of some provinces has been decreasing slower than others, an
aspect which the Tucker3 model is reflecting and which might lead to increasing divergence among
provinces on the long term.

7. CONCLUSION

In this paper, we proposed a new method to forecast mortality based on a three-way analysis of compositions
of life table deaths. This novel approach has proven capable of predicting mortality coherently for
populations with similar time - and age- patterns, as observed for the Canadian provinces and territories. The

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model offers several advantages such as 1) a great deal of the variance is explained by the model, 2) the
covariance between components (ages) are acknowledge by using a CoDa framework; 3) the population
forecasts are more coherent with one-another than when using independent forecasts; and 4) the number of
parameters is minimized by using only one time- and age-pattern for all populations.

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