B1 Comparative and IR Thursday, 4 January 2018 15:41, A. How the West was Lost? 1. Asin Ernest Hemingway's famous line about going bankrupt, history tends to progress " gradually, then suddenly.” And for many observers, that would also describe the epilogue of the West in the age of Donald Trump. 2. Clear evidence that the West is in crisis: a. USA, the leading power of the west, is alienating allies and embracing historical foes. USA has not hesitated to weaken the EU bloc whenever it can. It has also not spared Canada in its misplaced nationalism onslaught. b. EU has already established the so-called Permanent Structured Cooperation (PESCO), in part due to doubts over US commitment to NATO. PESCO aims to increase security and defense resources and use them in a collective manner. © G-7is becoming irrelevant dueto infighting and exclusion of major economies such as China and india. d. Trump has accelerated the global power realignment toward the Asia-Pacific, he is not its ultimate cause. 3. Way forward for them a. Europe and America have always been most successful when they have supported each other, while operating within a framework of institutions based on shared norms. b. Rather than recede toward isolation and diminished influence on the world stage, Western leaders should expand the scope and scale of cooperation in the search for solutions to global problems. Regionalisation of World Politics A. G7is an artifact of a bygone era. L 2 In the 1970s, when the G5 was expanded to include Canada and Italy, the new grouping really did dominate the world economy. Context - A number of ingredients to make an international body work. There have to be problems that need solving, There has to be some degree of unanimity about how those problems should be solved. And there has to be leadership to ensure that unanimity when it is not immediately forthcoming, G7 has only the first one. Relevance of G7 now a. Only legitimacy that the G7 can claim is that it represents a few major democracies. b. These countries still largely run other crucial economic institutions like the International Monetary Fund. © Cooperation among G7 members was also crucial to developing the Paris Agreement to combat climate change, and the international deal with tran to roll back that country's nuclear program Criticism a. 67s not capable of addressing global challenges, outside of narrow economic issues. b. Global trade and free capital movement pushed by G7 powers helped wreck much of their own working class. © In 2018, China is set to surpass Eurozone economy and India is poised to overtake UK and become 6th largest economy in the world, Representing the democracies that had the largest economies in the 1970s is no longer good enough. Future- a. G7 would be much more relevant if Canada, France, Germany, and italy were replaced by China, India, and a single delegation representing the eurozone.B. b. From terrorism to nuclear proliferation to climate change, there are hardly any issues that can be solved without the help of non-G7 countries. ©. tis dear that the G20 offers a better global governance forum than does the G7 in its current state. Harder to reach a viable consensus, but it is much more representative. International news Saudi Arabia - The Gulf kingdom was the only country in the world that bans women from driving — and women are still subject to strict dress codes and gender segregation. Until now, only men were allowed licenses and women who drove in public risked being arrested and fined. Last year, the government launched the Vision 2030 plan to modernize the economy — which was seen as a sign the country was moving towards reform. Saudi law enforces a strict form of Sunni slam known as Wahhabism and is known for its gender segregation rules. Qatar- Saudi Arabia has cut diplomatic ties with Qatar because of Qatar's “embrace of various terrorist and sectarian groups aimed at destabilizing the region”, includingthe Muslim Brotherhood, al Qaida, Islamic State and groups supported by Iran. a. Largest supplier of LNG to India, accounting for over 65% of India’s global import. b. Indians are the largest expatriate community in Qatar, the same way they are in Saudi Arabia and the UAE — the two key countries who are in the opposite camp Spain - Catalonia has a distinct history, culture and language. First referenced in the 12th century, a defined region of Catalonia had existed for more than 250 years before it joined Spain during the country’s formation in the 16th Century. Under the military government of Francisco Franco, from 1939-1975, Catalan culture was suppressed, Push for full autonomy appears to have gathered pace in recent years, most notably since Spain’s 2008 debt criss. Following a ruling by Spain’s constitutional court in 2010, which stated there is no legal basis for recognizing Catalonia as a nation, independence appears to havetaken preference over reform for a portion of the region’s population. Stockholm Water Prize, since 1991 - recognizes outstanding achievements in water related activities. Indians have won it twice in last decade 2015 & 2009. Syrian Observatory of Human Rights was established in 2006, non-profit NGO, UK based. White Helmets, officially known as Syria Civil Defense, is a volunteer organization that operates in parts of rebel-controlled Syria and in Turkey. Catalonia is an autonomous community of Spain in the north-east end of the Iberian Peninsula, designated as a nationality by its Statute of Autonomy a. In July 2010, the Constitutional Court in Madrid overruled part of the 2006 autonomy statute, stating that there is no legal basis for recognizing Catalonia as a separate country in the framework of the Spanish nation state. b. Economic crisis plaguing Spanish economy with rising unemployment and spiraling inflation, served to amplify separatist sentiments as the wealthy Barcelona ré as providing for poorer provinces. ©. Catalonia is one of Spain’s most prosperous regions and already has a high degree of autonomy. But it has a series of historic grievances, exacerbated during the 1939-1975 Franco dictatorship, when its culture and politics were suppressed. \n accounts for 20% of the Spanish GDP, and has long been the industrial heartland of Spain, with textile and shipbuilding, finance, services, and technology. Barcelona has a thriving start-up culture, and plays host to the annual Mobile World Congress. e. The Catalan parliament had voted to make a unilateral declaration of independence. Shortly afterwards the Spanish Senate in Madrid approved the imposition of direct rule. It sacked Mr. Puigdemont as head of the autonomous region, also fired its police chief and said central government ministries would take over the Catalan administration. Several European countries, including France and Germany, and the United States also rejected the independence declaration and said they supported PM Rajoy's efforts to preserve Spain's unity.7. TPP - Initially, 12 countries that border the Pacific Ocean signed up to the TPP in February 2016, representing roughly 40% of the world’s economic output. The pact aimed to deepen economic ties between these nations, slashing tariffs and fostering trade to boost growth. Members had also hoped to foster a closer relationship on economic policies and regulation. a. Trump thinks such deals will hurt American workers and undercut US companies. His stance on trade is protectionist: he has vowed to shield Americans from the effects of globalized trade by slapping hefty tariffs on cheap Chinese imports of up to 45%. b. CPTPP, also dubbed the TPP-11, was negotiated by Australia, NZ, Malaysia, Singapore, Vietnam, Brunei, Canada, Mexico, Chile and Peru. The revived deal will look to reduce tariffs in economies that together represent 500 million people and account for 14% per cent of global Who's involved? 8 Zimbabwe- The military in Zimbabwe has launched a bloodless coup on November 15, 2017 to target criminals surrounding long-time leader Robert Mugabe. a. Robert Mugabe is the only leader Zimbabwe had since it won freedom from British colonial rule in 1980. His poor health has fueled a bitter succession battle. His lengthy rule has been marked by brutal repression of dissent, mass emigration, vote rigging and economic collapse since land reforms in 2000. 9, Venezuela- OPEC member Venezuela boasts the largest proven reserves of crude oil in the world, but has struggled against the plunge in oil prices which began in 2014. Launched cryptocurrency "petro" whose purpose will be to advance the country’s monetary sovereignty, to carry out financial transactions and to defeat the financial blockade against the country. 10. Jerusalem - United States has officially recognized Jerusalem as the capital of Israel night and initiated the process of moving the American embassy from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem a. Israel considers the “complete and united Jerusalem” its capital, but Palestinians daim East Jerusalem for the capital of their future state. b. Walled Old City of Jerusalem, at just 1 sq km, is home to sites that are among the holiest in Judaism, Christianity, and Islam. Because of its unique cultural and religious significance, the UNGA set aside Jerusalem to be a corpus separatum, or separated body, under UN trusteeship when it voted in 1947 to divide the British mandate of Palestine into two states, an Arab one and a Jewish one. © That position remained the international consensus even after the partition plan itself was preempted by Israel's declaration of independence in 1948 and the subsequent invasion by Arab powers. An armistice the following year divided the mandate alongwhat has become known as the Green Line, which cuts through the middle of Jerusalem, Israel established its seat of government in the western half of the city, while, across a no man’s land lined with barbed wire, Jordan took control of the city’s eastern half, including the Old City. d. Israel captured East Jerusalem in 1967 and subsequently annexed it, redrawing its ‘municipal borders to include surrounding Arab villages. By contrast, the West Bank, also captured in 1967, was not annexed: it remains under military occupation and Palestinians have partial self-government there, through the Palestinian Authority (PA) e. While Israel controls the city, the Oslo Accords, signed by Israel and the Palestine Liberation Organization (PLO) in 1993, stipulated that Jerusalem’s disposition would only be decided on in permanent-status negotiations between the parties. Palestinians living in East Jerusalem have permanent residency not citizenship. £. This announcement is likely to compound a broader crisis of confidence among Palestinians that President Mahmoud Abbas, who has been in office for many years beyond his electoral mandate, can deliver statehood. Fatah and Hamas have called for protest. 11. North Korean Missile Crisis a. North Korea has launched its most powerful weapon yet- Called the Hwasong-15, after nearly two months of relative quiet (Dec-17) b. Vigilant Ace- annual U.S.-South Korean aerial drill. t is their largest ever joint exercise. It is designed to enhance their readiness and operational capability and to ensure peace and security on Korean peninsula UNSC sanctions include a ban on nearly 90% of refined petroleum exports to North Korea. North Koreans who work abroad to return to the country within 24 months. Resolution also contains a commitment to the resumption of “six-party talks”, leaving the door open for possible diplomatic negotiations - NK, SK, USA, Japan, Russia, China. Intention - to squeeze North Korea as tightly as possible to reduce its income, reduce its revenues, and in that way hopefully drive it to the negotiating table and also for it to stop its missile development process. d. Panmunjom Declaration for Peace, Prosperity and Unification of the Korean Peninsula was adopted between leaders of North Korea and South Korea in April 2018, during the Inter-Korean Summit 12. In 2015, the P5+1 (China, France, Germany, Russia, the United Kingdom, andthe United States), the European Union (EU), and Iran reached a Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action cron) a. to ensure that Iran's nuclear program will be exclusively peaceful. b. tran agreed to eliminate its stockpile of medium-enriched uranium, cut its stockpile of low-enriched uranium by 98%, and reduce by about 2/3 the number of its gas centrifuges for 13 years ©. Forthe next 15 years, iran will only enrich uranium up to 3.67%. Iran also agreed not to build any new heavy-water facilities for the same period of time. d. Uranium-enrichment activities will be limited to a single facility using first-generation centrifuges for 10 years e. To monitor and verify Iran's compliance with the agreement, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) will have regular access to all Iranian nuclear facilities £. Agreement provides that in return for verifiably abiding by its commitments, tran will receive relief from U.S., European Union, and United Nations Security Council nuclear- related economic sanctions. g Deal was also enshrined in a UN Security Council resolution, incorporating it into international law. ‘Why USA pulled out? a. Flawed because it gives tran access to billions of dollars but does not address Iran's support for groups the USS. considers terrorists, like Hamas and Hezbollah. b. They note it also doesn’t curb iran’s development of ballistic missiles and that the deal phases out by 2030.They say Iran has lied about its nuclear program in the past. Impact on India - oil prices, Chabahar, INSTC, future of agreements with USA yie13._ NAFTA an agreement signed by Canada, Mexico, and USA that reduced or eliminated trade barriers in North America, a. Focus areas have been agriculture, automobiles, textiles, IPR, labour issues and environmental standards b. Not an example of regional integration just a free trade agreement. Signed in 1994 proposed by Bush Sr and implemented by Clinton. Now both parties are critics Trump has called NAFTA the “worst trade deal in history,” and blames it for the loss of ‘manufacturing jobs in America’s Rust Belt. NAFTA, which was approved that same year as EU, providing a way to allow the exchange of goods and services to flow more freely across national borders without the artificial restrictions. a. Progressive elimination of all tariffs on any goods qualifying as North American. The deal also sought to protect intellectual property, establish dispute-resolution ‘mechanisms, and implement labor and environmental safeguards. b. Motivation - new markets for export, investment, cheap labour, check immigation. For Mexico - integration, investment, technology, jobs, exports. Regional trade in 1993 was $290 bn now $1.2tn Why controversial a. USA jobs were lost - more than a million jobs went to Mexico, wages suppressed - by threat to move, trade deficit. Counter - millions of jobs, goods cheaper, competitiveness, losses concentrated but benefits widespread, USA job loss is due to China and automation b. Mexico lost 1.3 million farm jobs - USA 2002 Farm Bill, environment degraded, growth rates avg (Mexican over 20 years since is 1.3%), illegal immigration continues, export increase is due to devaluation of peso Canada - gained in investment, agriculture trade 3x, no impact on competitiveness USMCA or NAFTA 2.0 a. Country of origin rules: Automobiles must have 75% of their components ‘manufactured in Mexico, the US, or Canada to qualify for zero tariffs (up from 62.5% under NAFTA), b. Labor provisions: 40 to 45% of automobile parts have to be made by workers who earn at least $16 an hour by 2023. US got Canada to open up its dairy market to US farmers, which was a bigissue for Trump. d. Intellectual property and digital trade: The deal extends the terms of copyright to 70 years beyond the life of the author (up from 50}. it also extends the period that a pharmaceutical drug can be protected from generic competition e. agreement adds a 16-year “sunset” clause — meaning the terms of the agreement expire, or “sunset,” after a set period of time. Under Article 2205 of NAFTA, which allows any country to withdraw after giving six months’ notice 14. ASIA PACIFIC ECONOMIC COOPERATION (APEC) a. APECis a forum for 21 Pa ‘member economies that promotes free trade throughout the Asia-Pacific region. HQ Singapore. 60% of GDP and 40% of ppopulation represented b. Nature of platform - soft regionalism, open regionalism, participation of private sector, ‘member economies not states (to accommodate Taiwan) ¢. It was established in 1989 in response to the growing interdependence of Asia-Pacific ‘economies and the advent of regional trade blocs in other parts of the world; to fears that highly industrialized Japan (a member of G8) would come to dominate economic activity in the Asia-Pacific region; and to establish new markets for agriculturald, products and raw materials beyond Europe, create prosperity India has requested membership in APEC (in 1993, and agai ial support from USA, Japan and Australia. in 2007], and received i. India stands to get among rule makers, make its industries competitive through liberalisation, attract FDI, achieve strategic objectives in SE Asisa and Pacific ii, Officials have decided not to allow India to join for various reasons, one of which is that India does not border the Pacific Ocean, which all current members do, iii, Also, APEC being a forum promoting free trade, India's bureaucracy, high custom duties and elaborate FDI rules were seen as an impediment to trading, and reforms were demanded. However, India was invited to be an observer for the first time in 2011 APEC has long been at the forefront of reform efforts in the areas of: trade & investment liberation, business facilitation, and economic and technical cooperation. i. Between 2002 and 2006 the costs of business transactions across the region was reduced by 6%, thanks to the APEC Trade Facilitation Action Plan ii, Tradein APEC area has grown 7x since 1989 iii, APEC works in close cooperation with private sector through APEC Business Advisory Council Proposals for Free Trade Area of the Asia Pacific (FTAAP) i. The proposal for a FTAAP arose due to the lack of progress in the Doha round of WTO negotiations, and as a way to overcome the "noodle bow!" effect created by overlapping and conflicting elements of the copious free trade agreements ii, The FTAAP is more ambitious in scope than the Doha round, which limits itself to reducing trade restrictions. The FTAAP would create a free trade zone that would considerably expand commerce and economic growth in the region iii, Some criticisms include that the diversion of trade within APEC members would create trade imbalances, market conflicts and complications with nations of other regions iv. APEC has also been criticised for promoting free trade agreements that would trammel national and local laws, which regulate and ensure labour rights, environmental protection, and safe and affordable access to medicine v. Whether it has accomplished anything constructive remains debatable, especially from the viewpoints of European countries that cannot take part in APEC and Pacific sland nations that cannot participate but will suffer its consequences vi. The development of the FTAAP (ifit happens) is expected to take many years, involving essential studies, evaluations and negotiations between member economies 15. Greece crisis a b. Greece had been an EU member since 1981 but couldn't enter the eurozone. Its budget deficit had been too high for the eurozone’s Maastricht Criteria. Investors treated it as a middle-income country with poor governance - a credit risk. After Greece joined the eurozone, investors thought otherwise, they figured if push cameto shove, other eurozone members like Germany would bail out Greece. In 2004, Greece announced it had lied to get around the Maastricht Criteria. The EU imposed no sanctions. Greece began to borrow recklessly — primarily so politicians could use it for populist programmes like high pensions, low taxes, higher salaries etc. This led to increasinggovernment debt — which Greece managed to repay with EVEN MORE borrowed money. fe. Greece has been surviving primarily on loans from the eurozone since 2010, when it, lost market access to funds because of a ballooning budget deficit, huge public debt and an underperforming economy, matched with an expansive welfare system. f. Greece owes European countries and international bodies €340bn borrowed over the. past five years. g Germany and other countries agreed to provide it with bailouts — meaning Germany would pay Greece's bills. But under one condition — Greece had to agree to certain austerity measures. h. To afford debt repayments, Greece made huge cuts leaving many impoverished. Contemporary Global Concerns ‘A. More inward-looking United States and a greater international diffusion of power, increasingly militarized foreign policy, and shrinking space for muttilateralism and diplomacy are features of the international order that predate the current occupant of the White House and look set to outlast him 1. The first trend — US. retrenchment — has been in the making for years, hastened by the 2003 Iraq War that, intended to showcase American power, did more to demonstrate its limitations. Overreach abroad, fatigue at home, and a natural rebalancing after the relatively brief period of largely uncontested U.S. supremacy in the 1990s mean the decline was likely inevitable. Trump's signature “America First” slogan harbors a toxic nativist, exclusionary, and intolerant worldview. In terms of ability to manipulate or mold events around the globe, US. influence has been waning as power spreads to the east and south, creating amore multipolar world in which armed non-state actors are playing a much larger role, 2. Growing militarization of foreign policy, also represents continuity as much as departure. ‘Throughout conflict zones, leaders increasingly appear pronetto fight more than to talk — and to fight by violating international norms rather than respecting them. This owes much to how the rhetoric of counterterrorism has cometo dominate foreign policy in theory and in practice. it has given license to governments to first label their armed opponents as terrorists and then treat them as such 3. On matters of international peace and security in particular, multilateralism has been manhandled for years. Animosity between Russia and Western powers has rendered the United Nations Security Council impotent on major conflicts since at least the 2011 Libya intervention; that animosity now infects debates on most crises on the council's agenda. ‘Trump is not the only leader emphasizing bilateral arrangements and ad hoc alliances above multilateral diplomacy and intergovernmental institutions. B. USA-China Trade War 1. China-US trade war is now in full flow. In July, USA had imposed a 25% tariff on $50 billion worth of goods, especially manufacturing components. At the time, Beijing had issued its retaliatory tariffs ofits own. Trump threatened to impose a 10% tariff on $200 billion worth of Chinese imports and that the amount could be hiked further. Biggest tariff application by the US since the Smoot Hawley tariffs in 1929 2. US exports only $130 billion or so of goods to China, while its imports exceed $500 billion. 3. USA view - Beijing's theft of American intellectual property and unfair use of multilateral institutions. ‘a. Beijingis tryingto develop a chip industry by hook or by crook. it has invested $150 billion to build the industry through its Made in China programmes. As a part of this, it has been seekingto buy established manufacturers abroad, as well as putting in a great deal of R&D effort at home. b. National Security Strategy document that has depicted China, along with Russia, as strategic competitors. 4, A prolonged conflict and the disruption of global supply chains can have a ripple effect on theglobal economy. Many of the products facing American tariffs have components and assemblies that are made in third countries which would be affected as well. . Iran’s Bid for Regional Hegemony. 1L. Syrian President Bashar al-Assad looks to be securely in power in Damascus. Ditto Hezbollah in Lebanon. The Islamic tate lost much of its territory. The Iraqi government retook the oil rich city of Kirkuk. Houthi rebels have Saudi Arabia bogged down in a quagmire in Yemen. Iranian involvement figured prominently in all of these developments, which has entrenched Iranian influence across the region, 2. But this success is not Tehran’s doing alone. Saudi Arabia's foreign policy missteps have helped as well. Besides its ill: considered Yemen adventure, Riyadh led the effort to embargo Qatar for its alleged pro-Iranian sympathies and support for terrorism. That has pushed Qatar closer to Tehran and created a diplomatic headache for Washington. (Qatar hosts the largest US. airbase in the Middle East.) 3. Contours of a U.S./Saudi strategy (with an important Israeli assist) are becoming clear. It is based on an overriding assumption that Iran has exploited passive regional and international actors to bolster its position in Syria, Iraq, Yemen, and Lebanon. Washington and Riyadh seek to re-establish a sense of deterrence by convincing Tehran that it will pay at least as high a price for its actions as it can inflict on its adversaries. 4, The strategy seems to involve multiple forms of pressure to contain, squeeze, exhaust, and ultimately push back tran. tt has an economic dimension (via U.S. sanctions); a diplomatic one (witness vocal U.S. and Saudi denunciations of Iran’s regional behavior and Riyadh’s ham- handed attempt to force Lebanese Prime Minister Saad Hariri’s resignation); and a military one (so far exerted principally by Saudi Arabia in Yemen and by Israel in Syria). D. Yemen Yemen's civil war began in 2014 when Houthi insurgents—Shiite rebels with links to Iran and a history of rising up against the Sunni government—took control of Yemen's capital and largest city, Sana'a, demanding lower fuel prices and a new government. 2. Following failed negotiations, the rebels seized the presidential palace in January 2015, leading President Mansour Hadi (also currently recognised President) and his government to resign. Beginning in March 2015, a coalition of Gulf states led by Saudi Arabia launched a campaign of economic isolation and air strikes against the Houthi insurgents, with U.S. logistical and intelligence support. 3. InJuly 2016, the Houthis and the government of former President Ali Abdullah Saleh, ousted in 2011 after nearly thirty years in power, announced the formation of a “political council” to govern Sana'a and much of northern Yemen. However, in December 2017, Saleh broke with the Houthis, and was killed, 4, Meanwhile, the conflict continues to take a heavy toll on Yemeni the world’s worst humanitarian crisis (blockade of Hodeidah port) 5. Separate from the ongoing civil war, the United States continues counterterrorism ‘operations in Yemen, relying mainly on airstrikes to target al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) and militants associated with the self proclaimed Islamic State. While Houthi rebels do not pose a direct threat to the United States, their attacks on Saudi Arabian infrastructure and territory threaten an important U.S. partner. ns, making Yemen E. North Korea’s Nuclear Ambitions 1L._kim Jong Un’s push for nuclear arms is driven by the risk of being deposed by outside powers. Further, perceived threats from inside from elite rivalries, unpredictable impact of economic reform, and difficulty in controlling information flow 2. USA has implemented “maximum pressure strategy": corralling the Security Council into ‘tougher sanctions, pressing China to do more to strangle its economy, conducting large Ait Force and Navy drills, and signaling that it does not fear military confrontation, 3. A diplomatic solution can be forged, but that would almost certainly require recognizing North Korea as a nuclear weapons power—at the risk that Pyongyang will pocket any concessions and then renege on its commitments. it has done that before. 4, United States can rely on deterrence to keep North Korea at bay. That strategy worked against the far larger Soviet threat. The danger is that Kim Jong-un may be willingto takerisks that Soviet leaders weren’t. 5. Chinese concerns - fears the prospect of war on the peninsula bri regime and troops to his doorstep 6. Theissues a. Denuclearisation - NK has estimated 50 kg of plutonium, enough for 10 bombs i, USA demand - complete, verifiable and irreversible denuclearisation. ii, North Korea - says it is committed to denuclearisation of Korean peninsula, without any specifics End to Korean War- technically at war after 1950-53 conflict ended in armistice. Normalisation of ties - Lifting of sanctions after complete denuclearisation vs phased relief (what NK seeks) d. Human rights - NK has been accused of state sanctioned human rights abuses and over ‘100,000 prisoners in its gulag sustem. fe. Security of regime- Main concern of KJU dynasty. Possibility of USA guaranteeing security. g chaos, USA-aligned in Venezuela 1. Venezuela should be a prosperous and vibrant country. After all, it has the largest proven oil reserves in the world. Instead, the country is gripped by a horrific economic and political crisis. The fault lies squarely with President Nicolas Maduro. He has implemented disastrous economic policies and run roughshod over the country's constitution. 2. Hungry Venezuelans bitterly joke about being on a “Maduro diet,” medicine is in short supply, and Maduro’s allies have frustrated efforts to change things at the ballot box. IMF projects that inflation will exceed 10 million’ in 2019. And Maduro has banned three opposition parties from participating in December 2018's presidential election. Venezuelan have taken to the streets to protest Maduro’s dictatorial ways. More than 100 protestors have been killed, but nothing has changed. 3. Maduro's authoritarian rule, enforced by violence, has exacerbated social divisions, undermined democratic institutions and free media, caused millions to flee abroad and alienated neighbouring countries. 4, Implicit threat of military intervention on behalf of Juan Guaid’s opposition raises fears of a cold war proxy conflict. Both Guaid6 and Maduro would be well advised to lower their fists, prepare for talks and launch a broad-based dialogue without unrealistic preconditions, ideally mediated by the UN. G. China’s Ambitions Abroad 1. XiJinping had a terrific 2017. He consolidated his hold on power and now ranks as China's most powerful leader since Mao Zedong, Going by his speech at China’s National Party Congress in October, he won't be sitting on the sidelines; he will be flexing his muscles. 2. Xi's assertive foreign policy will likely mix soft and hard power. He will be offering substantial aid to countries throughout Asia under the banner of the Belt and Road Initiative. Most countries will find it hard to pass up these funds, even if they sometimes come with substantial strings attached. Beijing will also be supporting sympathetic politicians and groups overseas, a tactic that has started to trigger a backlash 3. The vinegar supplementing the honey will be China’s continued effort to turn the South China Sea into a Chinese lake. Countries in Southeast Asia will be watching closely to see whether, and how, the United States pushes back on China's effort to make itself the regional hegemon. H. Rohingya Crisis: Myanmar and Bangladesh 1. An August 2017 attack by the Arakan Rohingya Salvation Army (ARSA), a militant group in Myanmar’s Rakhine state, prompted a brutal and indiscriminate military response targeting the long-mistreated Muslim Rohingya community. 2. That assault led to a massive refugee exodus, with at least 655,000 Rohingya fleeing for Bangladesh. The U.N. called the operation a “textbook example” of ethnic cleansing. The government has heavily restricted humanitarian aid to the area, and international goodwill ‘toward Aung San Suu Kyi, Myanmar’s Nobel Peace Prize-winning state counsellor, hasdissipated, Her government retains its hard-line stance toward the Rohingya and resists concessions on even immediate humanitarian issues. in this, it has the support of the population, which has embraced the Buddhist nationalist and anti Rohingya rhetoric disseminated through state and social media. ‘The focus is rightly on the right of refugees to return in a voluntary, safe and, dignified manner. In reality, however, and notwithstanding a late- November Bangladesh/Myanmar repatriation agreement, the refugees will not return unless Myanmar restores security for all communities, grants the Rohingya freedom of movement as well as access to services and other rights, and allows humanitarian and refugee agencies unfettered access. In Bangladesh, conflict between refugees and a host community that is heavily outnumbered in parts of the southeast and faces rising prices and falling wages is an immediate risk. The refugees’ presence also could be used to stoke communal conflict or aggravate political divisions ahead of elections expected in late 2018, There are risks, too, for Myanmar. ARSA could regroup. it or even transnational groups exploiting the Rohingya cause or recruiting among the displaced could launch cross-border attacks, escalating both Muslim-Buddhist tension in Rakhine state and friction between Myanmar and Bangladesh. Any attack outside Rakhine would provoke broader Buddhist- ‘Muslim tension and violence across the country. After nearly seven years of war, President Bashar al-Assad’s regime has the upper hand, thanks largely to Iranian and Russian backing, But the fighting is not over. Large swaths of the country remain outside regime control, regional and international powers disagree on a settlement, and Syria is an arena for the rivalry between Iran and its enemies. As the Islamic States ousted from the east, prospects for escalation elsewhere will increase, In eastern Syria, rival campaigns by pro-regime forces (supported by Iran-backed militias and Russian airpower) and the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (the SDF, backed by the U led anti-IslamicState coalition), have forced an Islamic State retreat. In Syria and Iraq, Islamic State remnants have retreated into the desert to await new opportunities. For the regime and the SDF, the fight against the Islamic State was a meansto an end. The ‘two aimed to capture territory and resources, but also to build on those gains — theregime by consolidating control; the Kurds by pressing for maximal autonomy. Thus far, the two sides mostly have avoided confrontation. With the Islamic State gone, the risks will increase.* JORDAN 100 MILES. —! Key @ Cities under Isis © Recent fighting ‘Mlsis presence ‘Kurdistan regional govt J. Democracy Under Stress 1 Democracy is under siege. The problem isn’t just that emerging democracies like Thailand and Turkey have slid back into authoritarian rule, though that’s bad enough. Many Western democracies are struggling as wel. 2. EVis threatening to strip Poland's voting rights in EU institutions because Warsaw has adopted anti-democratic laws, while Spain faces a secessionist movement in Catalonia. Centrist political parties across Europe have been losing vote shares to parties on the two extremes. Traditional center-left parties have had the most trouble, having suffered humiliating defeats in the Netherlands, France, and Austria among other places. But center- right parties are struggling as well, as recent elections in Britain and Germany attest. 3. Authoritarian governments like China and Russia are both working, in different ways, to undermine free and fair elections across the globe. still, democracy remains popular ‘worldwide, even if it has become less so among young people in democratic countries. There will be important elections in 2018 that could reverse the negative trends, though they might also give us more “illiberal democracies.” K. The Sahel 1. Weak states across the Sahel region are struggling to manage an overlapping mix of intercommunal conflict, jihadi violence, and fighting over smuggling routes. Their leaders’ predation and militarized responses often make things worse. 2. Mali’s 2012 crisis — which saw the Malian army routed from the country’s north, a coup that overthrew the government, and jihadis holding northern towns for almost a year — illustrates how quickly things can unravel. Since then, implementation of a peace deal that, aimed to end that crisis has stalled, while instability has spread from the north to Mali’s central region as well as parts of neighboring Niger and Burkina Faso. 3. Dynamics in each place are local, but governments’ lack of authority and their inability to stem — and, at times, their frequent contribution to — violence is a common theme. ‘Weapons that flooded the region as Libya collapsed after Muammar al-Gaddafi’s overthrow have made local quarrels deadlier. The instability has opened a rich vein for jihadis, who piggyback on intercommunal conflict or use Islam to frame struggles against traditionalauthorities. 4, Asthe situation has degenerated, the regional and international response has focused excessively on military solutions, Europeans in particular view the region as a threat to their ‘own safety and a source of migration and terrorism. In late 2017, a new French-backed force known as the G5 Sahel — comprising troops from Mali, Niger, Chad, Burkina Faso, and Mauritania — prepared to deploy into a field already crowded by France's own counterterrorism operations, U.S. Special Forces, and U.N. peacekeepers. The GS lacks a clear definition of the enemy, instead envisaging operations against an array of jihadis, traffickers, and other criminals. Disrupting smugaling in regions where that business represents the backbone of local economies could alienate communities. Regional leaders also appear likely to misuse military aid to shore up their own power. L. Congo 1L. President Joseph Kabila’s determination to hold on to power threatens to escalate the crisis in Congo and a humanitarian emergency that is already among the world’s worst. At the end of 2016, the Saint Sylvester agreement appeared to offer a way out, requiring elections by the end of 2017, after which Kabila would leave power (his second and, according to the. Congolese Constitution, final term in office should have ended December 2016) 2. The most likely course in 2018 is gradual deterioration. But there are worse scenarios. As the regime clamps down, fails to secure parts of the country, and stokes instability in others, the risk of a steeper descent into chaos remains — with grave regional implications. 3. Western powers are more critical and have sanctioned some of Kabila’s entourage, and African leaders and regional organizations are reluctant to criticize the regime openly, even as some recognize the dangers behind closed doors. Only more active, forceful, and united diplomacy — and ideally a more engaged Congolese opposition — stand a chance of nudging Kabila toward a peaceful transition 4. M. NATO in crisis 1. Established 1949, constitutes a system of collective defence (Article 5 of the ‘Washington Treaty) whereby its independent member states agree to mutual defence in response to an attack by any external party. NATO invoked Article 5 for the first time in its history after the 9/11 terrorist attacks 2. Each member is expected to increase its spending to 2% of GDP by 2024 (current avg 1.2%), but Trump seems to think that this already should have been done. And at NATO summit, he suddenly called for a new target of 4% of GDP 3. NATO's primary focus was on peacekeeping operations in distant places, rather than on its core function of territorial defense. For most European member states, the peace dividend from the alliance’s operations justified cuts in domestic military spending, 4, But this attitude changed in 2014, when Russia annexed Crimea and launched secretive military incursions into Eastern Ukraine. Since then, NATO member states’ defense budgets have increased by around 4% per year on average, making the 2024 target eminently achievable 5. US military budget equals roughly 72% of combined defense spending by all NATO member states, roughly three-quarters of US military spendingis directed toward regions other than Europe, 6. Early-warning and surveillance facilities that the US maintains in the United Kingdom and Norway arethere to defend the continental US, not Europe. 7. Ata minimum, Europe needs more military forces, and those forces need to be equipped for rapid deployment to critical areas. The new mobility command that is being established in Germany is a promising first step. & Asa single country, Russia’s military forces are more integrated, and can be deployed more quickly in pursuit of strategic directives from the Kremlin. Such nimbleness was amply demonstrated in Crimea in 2014 and in Syria 9, NATO's military capacity is actually improving, its political decision-making capacity is deteriorating. 10. Russia continues to oppose further expansion, seeing it as inconsistent with understandingsbetween Mikhail Gorbachev and western negotiators that allowed for a peaceful German reunification. 11. NATO's expansion efforts are often seen by Moscow leaders as a continuation of a Cold War attempt to surround and isolate Russia N. EU and illiberalisation 1L._Right-wing parties in the E.U. contend that unelected bureaucrats are making consequential decisions—regulating markets, inflicting rules on technology and economic development, setting quotas of refugee resettlements—without the participation of European citizens; increasingly, voters agree. This resentment is at the core of the Brexit movement in the U.K. and lies behind the growing strength of xenophobic parties in italy, France, the Netherlands, Scandinavia, and Central Europe. 2. Hungarian and Polish governments have been criticised for adopting increasingly iliberal policies, feeding on a nationalist narrative against a long history of foreign domination, and just a few decades of experience with democracy, capitalism, and a free press 3, Hungarian government forcibly retired large numbers of judges and has given political figures greater control over the Hungarian judiciary a. Fidesz controls all branches of government, including the judiciary. It has gutted the independent press, with the media now dominated by outlets that overtly support Fidesz and Orban. b. Businesses that are close to the party, orto Orban and his cronies, get favorable contracts, while those that are not face punishing taxes and regulations. © Orban used government funds to wage a massive propaganda campaign depicting Hungary as under assault by Muslim and other dark-skinned immigrants and by liberals in the EU bureaucracy in Brussels, Orban accuses Soros of promoting mass immigration to undermine Europe's Christian culture. Soros denies this. 4d. Gerrymandering and biased electoral laws make it highly likely Fidesz majorities will continue, . Orban has spearheaded eastern European resistance to EU moves to have member states accept asylum seekers and migrants under a quota system. £. 2018-19 protests are against a controversial labour law, dubbed "slave law", which increases the amount of overtime that employers can request from 250 to 400 hours. Why needed? Labour shortage (demography is old and anti-immigration and exodus due to Orban's policies) 4, In Poland, a nationalist government has systematically dismantled judicial independence. Supreme Court judges have been purged and replaced with government loyalists a. The country’s Constitutional Tribunal, which ensures that laws don’t stray from Poland's constitution, lost its independence in 2015 when the ruling party, the mismonikered Law and Justice Party, stacked the court with its own adherents. b. Many Poles believe their country’s president and prime minister, have done little or nothing in the past to discourage marchers calling for a “white Europe” and spouting anti-Semitic chants, . Far-right describes post-1989 Poland as a “post-colonial state” built not to serve Poles, but to exploit its resources for foreign overlords (Western capital) and their “local collaborators.” d._ In 2015, the far-right Law and Justice party, or PiS, won both the presidential election ‘and a slim parliamentary majority. Since then, they've been working to cement their power by firing judges, purging the military and civil service, and cracking down on protesters and the media. . When the 2015 migrant crisis erupted (right in the middle of Poland's parliamentary election campaign), Jarostaw Kaczynski justified his party's stance of refusingto accept any relocated migrants by, among other things, insisting Poland had a right to defend its sovereignty against European politicians and foreign refugees £. Polish society has become increasingly polarized in recent years. The main divide is strongly linked to feelings about national autonomy and identity. It is, broadly speaking, between those who want a Poland ever more closely integrated with Western Europe politically, culturally, and economically, and those who believe deeperintegration, especially political and cultural, poses a threat to Polish autonomy and the Polish way of life. g Law andJustice, along with the most extreme far-right groups, firmly belongs to the latter camp, which rejects deeper integration with Western Europe, whose dominant ideologies it considers to be feminism, multiculturalism, secularism, and LGBTQ ‘equality, all values somewhat irreconcilable with the view of Polishness that cherishes God, honor, and Fatherland above all. 5. EU treaties provide a mechanism to strip states in serious and persistent breach of liberal democratic values (nuclear option Article 7) of their voting rights. However, doing so requires the agreement of all other member states and Poland has made it clear that it will veto any moves against Hungary in this regard and vice versa, 6. EUis designed to help members become more open and free, and doesn't have adequate tools to punish members who seek the opposite. Theoretically, it could cut off transfers and subsidies to Hungary — some $6 billion a year — and suspend its voting rights. ©. American Foreign Policy 1. Donald Trump poses a particular threat to the U.S.-led, rules-based order that has supposedly been in place since 1945 2. Having triumphed over the Soviet Union, the United States could have given itself a high-five, taken a victory lap, and adopted a grand strategy better suited to a world without a superpower rival. 3. Instead, both Democrats and Republicans quickly united behind an ambitious strategy of “liberal hegemony,” which sought to spread liberal values far and wide. 4. In Europe, the United States could have resisted the siren song of NATO expansion and stuck with the original “Partnership for Peace,” a set of security arrangements that included Russia. 5. AUnited States less distracted by wars in the Middle East could have moved more swiftly to counter China’s growing ambitions, and it would have had more resources available to accomplish this essential task. 6. Greater attention to how the benefits of globalization were distributed would also have reduced inequality in the United States and tempered the polarization that is rippingthe country apart today. 7. Somevvoters mistakenly believed they would get it from Trump, but he hasn't delivered and almost certainly won't. P. Turkey 1L. Turkey has officially moved from a parliamentary system to a presidential system. The abolition of parliamentary control gives Erdogan sole power over the executive branch of government. And, through his power to appoint important judges, he will also control the judiciary. 2. While Turkey's EU accession process is in danger of being indefinitely suspended, its relations with the United States are also increasingly difficult. Fethullah Gulen, accused by Erdogan of being the mastermind behind the attempted coup in 2016, lives in the United States. 3. United States works with its Kurdish allies, the People’s Protection Units (YPG), which Turkey rightly regards as theSyrian affiliate of the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK), a designated terrorist organization. And Turkey is planning to buy 5-400 missile systems from Russia despite opposition within NATO. All this has led to the impasse. 4, Since the start of the Syrian civil war, Kurdish people in the North have carved out an jon of their own — Rojava — by fightingthe IstamicState. Their militias, which form the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), have emerged as the most effective fighters against 1S15 and won them a close partnership with the US. In 2018, Turkey invaded the Syrian Kurdish enclave of Afrin, putting the country in direct conflict with the Kurds of Rojava. 5. Erdogan has no sympathies for the Islamic State, but this is no solace for those who fear that he will turn his attention to the Islamic State only once he disposes of the YPG 6. Relations with Russia are cozier than ever (but out of necessity as US has turned deaf to Turkey's protests against US-YPG alliance) , while ties with the United States are at their nadir and those with Europe remain crisis-ridden. a. Washington’s current list of grievances against Ankara include its detention of theAmerican pastor Andrew Brunson, its opposition to U.S. attempts to empower the Kurds in Syria, and its deepening relationship with Russia, from which Turkey has agreed to purchase four batteries of S-400 air defense missiles b. 2016 coup - Gulen is almost universally unpopular in Turkey. Andrew Brunson was accused of spying for two organizations, the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) and the network of the preacher Fethullah Gulen, whom Ankara believed was behind the attempted ouster. © United States doubled its tariffs on steel and aluminum imported from Turkey and froze the assets of the Turkish interior and justice ministers. d. Turkey's economic problems are structural: For years, it juiced economic growth by building infrastructure. Now, there's high inflation and high interest rates that won’t go away just because sanctions do. Q. Syrian Civil War L March 2011 - Arab Spring, Assad crushes the protests with use of force, prompting retaliation and leading to an uprising led by Free Syrian Army. Now Assad leads a Shia government ruling over a Sunni majority populace, leading to entering of tran (through Hezobllah) and Saudi Arabia (through Jordan). As civil war begins, Kurds declare independence. USA enters to train and equip rebels, horrified by mounting deaths and atrocities. In 2014, in between all the chaos, an al-Qaeda off-shoot in Iraq emerges. The group calls itself Isis, and fights everyone to carve itself a caliphate. USA sees ISIS as its main target (except April 2017 when USA directly bombed Assad regime), but Turkey is focused on Kurds, Iran/Russia/Assad on rebels, and rebels on Assad. R. Gilet Jaunes L Protest movement isn’t simply a political challenge but a fundamental crisis of legitimacy for Macron and France's Fifth Republic. a. movement is motivated by rising fuel prices (eco tax on diesel), high cost of living, and claims that a disproportionate burden of the government's tax reforms were falling on the working and middle classes b. protesters have called for lower fuel taxes, reintroduction of the solidarity tax on wealth, a minimum wage increase, end to austerity measures, the implementation of itizens' initiative referendums Yellow high-visiblity vests, which French law required all drivers to have in their vehicles and to wear during breakdowns or other emergencies, were chosen as a symbol for their convenience, visibility, and ubiquity. Much of the organizing for the protests has taken place ‘on Facebook. Macron swiftly passed long: needed reforms to make the labour market more flexible, ‘working with moderate unions and facing down unruly ones. His education reforms offered smaller classes in poor areas and greater citizens’ control over training, The budget was knocked into shape, meeting the Maastricht deficit limit of 3% of gdp for the first time since 2007. ‘The most damaging label that has stuck to the former banker is that he is “the president of the rich”. Does all this mean that have-your-cake-and-eat-it populism must triumph, and that reformers will always be thwarted? It is depressingly easy to conclude so. ‘What Macron needs to do? Better communication; proper wage subsidy for the low-pai that enhances their incentive to work, rather than draw the dole; be humble and change perception S. Philippines L 2 ‘Outspoken and profane rhetoric is a hallmark of Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte. Duterte's ongoing feud with the church may be personal, but it’s also deeply political: The church has typically held significant sway in politics and among the electorate, helping to keep divorce and abortion illegal and craft many of the country’s laws on family and social issues3. Abu Sayyaf, considered to be the Islamic State's Southeast Asia chapter, has tormented the Philippines since 1991. The Maute group is a more recently formed hard-line insurgent force consisting of about 100 militants. Ominously, both Abu Sayyaf and the Maute have pledged allegiancetto the Islamic State, and held the city of Marawi hostage. 4. Duterte's political success has been aided by his vocal support for the extrajudicial killing of drug users and other criminals. Duterte has repeatedly confirmed that he personally killed criminal suspects as mayor of Davao. His domestic policy has focused on combating the illegal drug trade by initiating the Philippine Drug War. a. Research by media organizations and human rights groups has shown that police routinely execute unarmed drug suspects and then plant guns and drugs as evidence. Philippine authorities have denied misconduct by police. b. The policy is supported by the majority of the local population, as well as by leaders or representatives of certain countries such as China, Japan and the United States © Drug syndicates have been producing crystal meth in small-scale and kitchen-type laboratories to avoid detection by the Philippine authorities since 2010. Chinese drug cartels are behind the trade of shabu on the Philippines 4d. Duterte’s philosophy of drug uses shared by many Filipinos, and has common since the very beginning of the “war on drugs” in the early 1970s. 5. In 2016, the Permanent Court of Arbitration tribunal in the Hague announced its ruling in favor of the Philippines against China on issues regarding the South China Sea under the provisions of the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea, including the latter's nnine-dash line claim which the tribunal ruled had no legal basis. Duterte said "he would not want to antagonize China” and would want to "maintain good relations with China" to "create an environment where we sit down and talk directly" 6. Duterte vowed not to allow the U.S. government to interfere with the policies of his administration. He criticized the U.S. government for "lecturing" his administration on human rights amidst their campaign on illegal drugs and said that he will "cross the Rubicon with the US." Duterte added that he plans to forge "new alliances" with China and Russia in trade and commerce, T. libya 1L. Civil war began in the middle of February 2011. Many Libyans were inspired by the uprisings in neighbouring countries, such as Tunisia and Egypt. They violently protested against the government. 2. Gaddafi was overthrown and killed in the 2011 Libyan Civil War. Two authorities initially claimed to govern Libya: the Council of Deputies in Tobruk and the 2014 General National Congress (GNC) in Tripoli 3. After UN-led peace talks between the Tobruk (east, House of Representatives) and Tripoli governments (ex GNC), a unified interim UN-backed Government of National Accord was established in 2015. Parts of Libya remain outside either government's control, with various Islamist, rebel and tribal militias administering some areas 4. Each coalition had its own self-declared parliament and government, as well as nominal military chiefs, and faces internal fragmentation and divisions among different groups. 5. Reality of the conflict in Libya is that itis a scramble for power and wealth, ignited by the inability to craft a new social contract determining a fair sharing of power. Since the conflict began in 2014, there have been effectively two parallel army, police and security structures, leading many Libyans to believe that the country was in danger of splitting into two. 6. Further complicating the struggle between various vying factions is the presence of the self- proclaimed Islamic State, which established a foothold in the country in February 2015 and quickly gained control of the coastal city of Sirte. U. Sudan & South Sudan 1 Government of Sudan gave its blessing for an independent South Sudan in 2011, wherethe mainly Christian and Animist people had for decades been struggling against rule by the Arab Muslim north. 2. Since 1989, President Omar al-Bashir and a small group of ruling elites has transformed Sudan into a violent kleptocracy. Attempts to disrupt the looting machine or holdgovernment officials accountable are met with state violence and severe repression. a. Armed conflict and mass atrocities drew the world's attention to Darfur in 2003 and 2004. This conflict resulted in the death of perhaps 300,000 people and the displacement of millions more. b. Rebel groups began fighting govt of Sudan which they accused of oppressing Darfur's non-Arab population, The government responded to attacks by carrying out a ‘campaign of ethnic cleansing against Darfur's non-Arabs. 3. South Sudan a. In December 2013, following a political struggle between President Kiir and V-P ‘Machar that led to Machar's removal as vice president, violence erupted between presidential guard soldiers from the two largest ethnic groups in South Sudan. Soldiers from the Dinka ethnic group aligned with Kiir and those from the Nuer ethnic group supported Machar. b. 2018 brought an increase in regional and international pressure on President Salva Kiir and opposition leader and former Vice President Riek Machar to reach an agreement to end the conflict, including targeted sanctions from the United States and a UN arms embargo. V. Congo L. Current violence in the DRC has its origins in the massive refugee crisis and spillover from the 11994 genocide in Rwanda. After Hutu génocidaires fled to eastern DRC and formed armed groups, opposing Tutsi and other opportunistic rebel groups arose. 2. The Congolese government was unable to control and defeat the various armed groups, some of which directly threatened populations in neighboring countries. From 1998 to 2003, government forces supported by Angola, Namibia, and Zimbabwe fought rebels backed by Uganda and Rwanda, in what is now known as the Second Congo War. 3. The country’s massive resource wealth—estimated to contain $24 trillion of untapped mineral resources—also fuels violence. The mineral trade provides financial means for groups to operate and buy arms 4, Much of the violence that plagues Congo today is linked to the country's broader political crisis, as President Joseph Kabila has stayed in power beyond his constitutionally mandated ‘two-term limit by delaying elections and quashing dissent. 5. Today, over 120 armed groups are active in eastern Congo. Many of these groups receive support from the Congolese government and security forces, while others have formed coalitions against the Kabila government. As the security forces are themselves fomenting much of the violence in Congo, this has in turn been used as an excuse for election delays. 6. Saint Sylvester principles 2016 (credible elections, no third term for Kabila, an opening of political space, and respect for human rights) offered the best route out of the crisis. 7. Elections, twice delayed, were eventually held in December 2018, but the results have caused controversy. Officials declared opposition candidate Felix Tshisekedi the winner, prompting protests from rival opposition candidate Martin Fayulu of a deal with the government, ‘whose candidate Emmanuel Ramazani Shadary came third, W. Somalia 1. Whatever its faults - and there were many - Siad Barre's 22-year rule effectively created modern Somalia along socialist lines, building one of Africa's strongest armies and massively improving the literacy of the population. 2. Yet Barre suspended the constitution, banned political parties, arrested politicians and curbed press freedom. Somalia's problem lies in the complicated nature of its clan-based politics. 3. After chasing out Barre's Darood clan, the Hawiye clan could not agree on how to share power. This meant a continuation of the civil war. So brutal was the fighting that the warring factions agreed to divide Mogadishu into northern and southern zones with an exchange of populations taking place. 4, The seizure of the capital Mogadishu and much of the country's south by a coalition of Islamist shariah courts in 2006 prompted an intervention by Ethiopian, and later, African Union, forces. Since 2012, when a new internationally-backed government was installed,Somalia has been inching towards stability, but the new authorities still face a challenge from ‘Al-Qaeda-aligned Al-Shabab insurgents. X. South Africa 1. Zuma was accused of presiding over an immense system of corruption and patronage that drained billions from the exchequer and damaged the reputation of the ANC beyond repair. Ramaphosa, who served as deputy president under Zuma, has struggled to overcomethe toxic legacy of Zuma’s nine-year rule. 2. Entrenched networks of government and ANC officials stll loyal to Zuma remain powerful, while international investors, though interested by South Africa’s undoubted potential, are wary. 3. South Africa remains a country with enormous resources and great wealth but also vast inequality. Much of the focus in the last year was on the possible redistribution of farmland — largely owned by white people, who constitute fewer than 10% of the population. Y. Zimbabwe 1L. Faith in the government of Zimbabwe's president, Emmerson Mnangagwa, has waned, following another round of state violence towards unarmed citizens. Hope has turned into ‘mourning in cities around the country, where a general strike opposing Mnangagwa’s 150% fuel price hike turned bloody 2. Until the military is removed from civilian spaces, Zimbabwe will only plunge into deeper political and economic misery. While the involvement of the military in civilian politics was more constrained during Mugabe's authoritarian tenure, even the wily president eventually lost control — he was forced out of office at the hands of the military in November 2017. 3. Since then, the military has felt more emboldened than ever in playing a stronger role in social, political and economic affairs. The Zanu-PF leadership has consistently rehashed Nn narratives to ward off any alternative leadership emerging - meanwhile it fails to develop new political and economic programmes to actually help Zimbabwe. 2. Brazil 1. Brazil's current constitution, ratified in 1988, finally established a strong separation of, powers. The president is now accountable to both congress and the judiciary. Meanwhile, a quasi fourth branch of government, the Public Prosecutor's Office, composed of dependent public prosecutors who work at both the federal and state level, is also insulated from executive influence. 2. The elevation of Lava Jato from a provincial city to the highest courts in the country—without getting derailed by the many powerful enemies seeking to quash the investigation—speaks to the vigor of Brazil's judiciary from the top to the bottom. 3. Itis clear that a major part of why Bolsonaro won the presidency is that Brazilians were fed up with corruption and wanted a radical shakeup of politics in Brasilia 4, In recent decades, Brazil has sought to influence the international order by relying heavily on “soft power” —the ability to persuade others to align with its diplomatic proposals because of the underlying appeal of Brazit’s domestic model and its peaceful approach to resolving international disputes. 5. Under Lula, Brazil became the gold standard for fighting economic inequality by cutting the poverty rate from 9.7 percent to 4.3 percent of the national population. a. Key to this success were social programs such as Bolsa Familia, or family purse, which ‘aim to break the cycle of poverty by giving direct cash transfers to poor families in ‘exchange for their commitment to keep their children in school and up to date with their medical checkups. 6. 2018 Brazilian presidential elections were about rejecting the establishment and the Workers’ party. A majority of voters backed Jair Bolsonaro to send a message that Brazil could no longer pursue business as usual. Bolsonaro has been viewed as having racist and sexist discourses, with very authoritarian elements. a. His election comes in context is one of deep crisis on three issues: the economy, corruption and public security, and the profound discredit of the left, centrist, and center-right establishment in Brazilb. He would be against environmental regulations, and there is every reason to believe that he would be a great supporter of agribusiness. We can be very confident that there will be less respect for the human rights of some groups. Brazil has a long record of high police impunity and many police killings, and we should expect this to get worse © Bolsonaro’s anti-globalist views and anti-environmental stance: promised to allow ‘mining and agricultural companies to expand their business activities into previously protected areas of the country, such the Amazonian forests. ‘AA. Venezuela 1. The socialist government choose to put that money back into society in the form of welfare programmes, but when the global crash of oil prices hit in 2014, the country found itself lacking the funds to run the country 2. Crisis intensified under the Maduro government, growing more severe as a result of low oil prices in early 2015 and a drop in oil production from lack of maintenance and investment. Government failed to cut spending in the face of falling oil revenues and has dealt with the crisis by denying its existence and violently repressing opposition. 3. Rather than cutting back on spending, the holes in the economy were filled by printing more money, which led to inflation. Problem is more severe also dueto a complex currency system, which dictates the official exchange rate between bolivar to dollar at 10:1. With monthly salaries equatingto no more than a few US dollars, citizens are resorting to searching in bins for food 4. Congress chief Juan Guaido swore himself in as interim head of state with the support of nations around the region, 5. He has promised free and fair elections, a transition government to revive the hyperinflation- riddled economy and an amnesty for military officers if they help push Maduro from power. 6. Russia, which has invested heavily in Venezuela's oil industry and provided support to its armed forces, accused Washington of trying to usurp power in the country and warned against U.S. military intervention. BB. Mexico 1. The left-winger Andres Manuel Lépez Obrador won an overwhelming victory in the July 2018 presidential election, 2. His priorities are to tackle corruption and reverse decades of free-market economic policy - which he blames for social inequality, endemic violence, and the desire of so many young people to leave the country 3. He has pledged to set an example of personal probity by serving only one term, surrendering part of his salary, selling off his official plane, and not living in the presidential palace, while also proposing a law to allow the recall of any elected official by referendum, CC. EU side mentions 1. Greece- a. Prespa Agreement calls for Macedonia to change its nameto North Macedonia, while Greece, in exchange, drops long-held opposition that has prevented its neighbor from integrating more formally with Europe. b. Ancient Macedonia encompassed a broad area and today an area of northern Greece is also known as Macedonia. Greece referred to their northern neighbor as the Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia, or FYROM. Some Greeks say that Macedonians are ‘making unjust claims over Greek territory or heritage. 2. Italy 3. Ukraine a. In 2013, after the government of President Viktor Yanukovych had decided to suspend the Ukraine-European Union Association Agreement and seek closer economic ties with Russia, a several: months-long wave of demonstrations and protests known as the Euromaidan began, which later escalated into the 2014 Ukrainian revolution b. That led to the overthrow of Yanukovych and the establishment of a new government, ‘These events formed the background for the annexation of Crimea by Russia in March 2014, and the War in Donbass in April 2014 (Malaysian plane shot down)