Modelling Curves project:

The exponential Growth of Novel Corona Virus 2019

Preface
In the case of the coronavirus COVID-19, exponential growth will occur in the disease rate in
humans so long as:
 there is at least one infected person in the population pool,
 regular contact between infected and uninfected members of the population
occurs,
 and there are large numbers of uninfected potential hosts among the population.

Whenever you have exponential growth, whatever it is that's growing will double its
presence/population in a given amount of time. Let's say you start with a population that has just
one infected person on January 1st, and the number of infected people doubles every three days.

How many people will be infected by January 31? How many people will be infected by this
year's equinox: March 19?

Will it still growth exponentially after vaccination spread among the world?

Introduction to the modelling curves technique.

Tasks:

1. Give an introduction about the exponential function. Derive your explanation so you can
assume that covid-19 cases are growth exponentially.
(10 marks)
2. Find a graph of the growth of Reported cases of covid-19 in a region in a particular month.
(For example, in the UK in the month before lockdown measures were announced, you
may access this link: https://www.cebm.net/covid-19/exponential-growth-what-it-is-why-
it-matters-and-how-to-spot-it/)
OR
Find a graph of the the growth of Reported cases of covid-19 a particular month after
vaccination started in a region.
(For example, https://www.wbur.org/news/2021/01/26/study-masks-vaccines-covid-short-
term)
(10 marks)

3. Try to formulate the graph in to an exponential function. You need to use the given data to
find the values of coefficient and the indices in the exponential function you made.
(40 marks)
4. By using the technique that you have learned, state your prediction for:
a. The number of covid-19 case in 1 year after the period time shown in your graph.
b. Time taken for the cases doubled, or for the cases halved after vaccination.
(30 marks)

Notes:

1. Pretending as a researcher, don’t hesitate to bring out your idea and things in your mind
related to the fact that you found. Our main focus is on the way you do prediction by
using exponential function graph.
2. Submit your work before October 31st 2021.