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UNDER THE THEME: “SMART MAINTENANCE” CONICIDE WITH THE 15TH ARAB MAINTENANCE
EXHIBITION
2
Go for preventive maintenance
3
Go for preventive maintenance!
MAINTENANCE
PLANNED UNPLANNED
INVENTORY
PLANNED PROCUREMENT
MANAGEMENT
80% 20%? 4
Preventive or corrrective?
5
Eliminate process problems
6
SPARE PARTS PROCESS
7
Eliminate process problems
REQUEST RFO created by someone else, not the technician who requested part.
FOR ORDER The step of RFO may not be necessary in the process.
8
Eliminate process problems
Problems with missing (undelivered) documentation for the received
RECEPTION material (certificates, declarations).
Lost spare parts documentation – only “paper-based” archiving.
Foundry
Spare parts inventory value [?]
200,000,000
180,000,000 Machining, engines
Pressshop Cental warehouse
160,000,000
140,000,000
120,000,000
100,000,000
80,000,000
Welding lines
60,000,000
40,000,000
20,000,000
0
1P493
1P497
1P896
1P943
1P999
01173
01894
01898
02894
02898
04863
04893
04897
07494
07498
08180
08881
08936
08984
09890
09896
12884
12896
13490
13494
13498
13758
14863
14894
14898
21894
21898
22498
22898
23499
23896
24893
29990
30892
39892
39897
52999
Warehouses A-Z
16
SPARE PARTS PROCESS
Insufficient spares
identification
Are returns to
warehouse allowed?
Procurement
specification missing
18
Comparison of inventory turnover
0.7
0.6
0.5
0.4
0.3
0.2
0.1
0
1 2 3 4
19
Segment your spare parts portfolio
20
Service level x locked-in capital
Inventory
value
What items are really important?
90 % 95 % 98 % 99 % 100 %?
Service level / availability
21
What items are really important?
22
ABC analysis – on hand inventory value
23
ABC analysis – consumed quantity
Quantity
24
Spare parts inventories segmentation – consumption frequency
(in quantity)
25
Spare parts inventories segmentation – consumption frequency
(in value)
26
Strategic segmentation of spare parts
CONSIDER CONSIDER
TYPE OF FORECAST
CONSIGNATION CONSIGNATION
HOW MANY?
CONSIDER CONSIDER
CONSIGNATION CONSIGNATION
CONSIDER
BUY BACK
CONSIGNATION
WHEN?
BUY CONSIGNATION
CONSUMPTION FREQUENCY
27
Example of buyback application
20 pieces were purchased for turnaround in 2010 for 41.2 M CZK, but these spare parts
were not used during the turnaround and will be stored until the next turnaround in 2014.
Buy-back in this case can save 9 M CZK (360k EUR) on storage and locked-in capital cost
Between shutdowns
28
FSN and VED classification
Fast-moving F
Slow-moving S V Vital
Non-moving N E Essential
D Desirable
29
Evaluate spare parts criticality
30
Evaluate spare parts criticality
Price Part lifespan
% cost of capital Failure probability
Failure characteristics
Failure anticipation
Cost of
inventory Failure
holding probability
31
Criticality calculation
𝐶𝑖𝑛𝑣 = 𝐶𝑢𝑛 ∗ 𝐿𝑇 ∗ 𝑓
INVENTORY HOLDING UNAVAILABILITY LEAD TIME FAILURE RATE
10 000 EUR x 10% 100 EUR / day 100 days 1 per 2 years
1 000 EUR
< 5 000 EUR
KEEP ON STOCK
32
Criticality assessment phases
Economical Criticality
Potentially
assessment assessment
critical part
33
Application for criticality assessment
34
Login a heslo
35
Postupné hodnocení kritičnosti
36
37
38
39
Spare parts criticality analysis result
Criticality score
40
41
Quantitative Common
methods sense
42
Quantitative methods x Common sense
43
Forecasting step-by-step
Calculation of accuracy
3 Absolute and relative errors, evaluation on testing season
44
What forecasting method is best for spare parts?
2% Constant model
Konstantní model
1% 1% 3%
5% Regression model
Regresní model
9%
Holt’s exp.
Holtovo smoothing
exp. vyrovnání
Jednoduché exp.
Simple exp. smoothing
??? vyrovnání
Moving average
Klouzavý průměr
Winters
Winters
79%
Forecasting není možný
Forecasting impossible?
45
46
4
ND (pieces)
3
required availability of a spare part?
partspotřeby
2
Týdenní
Weekly spare
0
1 4 8 13 17 18 25 27 30 32
Weekly consumption history (weeks) 26 47
Historie týdenních spotřeb (týdny)
Bootstrapping
Bootstrapping = random sampling from history of consumptions.
SP consumption for lead-time period is sampled from history
Sample 1: Example:
4 Consumption in SP lead time is
6 weeks
6 weeks = 5 pcs
3
spotřeby ND
consumption
2
Týdenní
Weekly SP
0
1 4 8 13 17 18 25 27 30 32
26 48
Historie
Weekly týdenních
consumption spotřeb
history (týdny)
(weeks)
Bootstrapping
Sample 2:
Vzorek 2: Spotřeba
4 Consumption
za
in
66weeks
týdnů ==00kspcs
3
Týdenní spotřeby
Spare part consumption ND
(pieces)
0
1 4 8 13 17 18 25 27 30 32
26
WeeklyHistorie
consumption history
týdenních (weeks)(týdny)
spotřeb
49
Bootstrapping
Sample 3:
Vzorek 3:
4 Consumption in
Spotřeba za
6 weeks =
6 týdnů = 12
12 pcs
ks
3
Týdenní spotřeby ND
Weekly SP consumption
0
1 4 8 13 17 18 25 27 30 32
26
WeeklyHistorie týdenních
consumption spotřeb
history (týdny)
(weeks)
50
Bootstrapping
Sample 4:
Vzorek 4:
4 Consumption in
Spotřeba za
6 weeks== 2
6 týdnů 2 pcs
ks
3
spotřeby ND
consumpiton
2
Weekly SPTýdenní
0
1 4 8 13 17 18 25 27 30 32
26
WeeklyHistorie týdenních
consumption spotřeb
history (týdny)
(weeks)
51
Example of 100 000 simulations
of SP consumption
probability of consumption
Kumulativní pravděpodobnost spotřeby
(ze simulace)
of consumption
30 000
OPTIMUM INVENTORY = 9 PCS
(from simulation)
Četnosti spotřeb
Frequencies
Cummulative
0
0 5 10 15
Spotřeba během
Consumption LT – intervaly
during leadtime(ks)
(pcs)
52
Bootstrapping application – a case study
Intermittent demand
Recommended inventory
Savings
7 000 EUR 53
Bootstrapping in spare parts management information system
54
55
COST
PROFIT?
PROFIT
RENOVATION
ASSET MAINTENANCE MAINTENANCE
LIFE CREATES VALUE!
CYCLE
56
Asset life cycle (Kari Komonen, EFNMS EAMC)
INVESTMENT UTILIZATION
$
$
57
PROCUREMENT
COST
PROFIT?
PROFITPROFIT
RENOVATION
ASSET MAINTENANCE MAINTENANCE
LIFE CREATES VALUE!
CYCLE
58
59
60
Good information system for spare parts management
Forecast accuracy
Uncertainty and reliability
Minimize!
Forecasting
Quantitative methods Inventory levels Maximize!
Ordering
61
Efficient Spare Parts Management
SPARE PARTS
INVENTORY
MAINTENANCE MAINTENANCE
VOLUME VOLUME
SPARE PARTS
INVENTORY
62
Thank you
Tomas Hladik
Logio s.r.o.
Prague, Czech Republic
www.logio.cz
hladik@logio.cz