ARTIFICIAL NEURAL NETWORK

THE APPLICATION OF ARTIFICIAL NEURAL NETWORK METHOD IN

FORECASTING THE NUMBER OF PREGNANT WOMAN VISITS (K4)

ABSTRACT
Forecasting is a systematic attempt to predict future events using past data, based on scientic and qualitative
methods. For the maternal health program, forecasting is important as its process consists of planning, targeting
and achievement. Based on data from the Ministry of Health, the quality of antenatal care in Indonesia was still
low (87.48 percent) compared to that of the national target (95 percent). This study aims to apply the methods of
articial neural network in predicting the antenatal care (K4). This applied research used a descriptive method
with secondary data in the form of monthly antenatal care visits (K4) from the year of 2012 to 2015 obtained from
the Provincial Health O ce of East Java, with a case study in Bondowoso. The forecasting result in 2016 based
on the 12-4-1 network architecture was 9533.5698, with the value of Mean Square Error (MSE) of 3091.84404.
The average percentage of error based on a comparison with the actual data is 0.1854 or reaching the accuracy
of 99.81 percent. The conclusion of this study is that a neural network has a low error value and a high accuracy.
Therefore, forecasting results can be used as an input in the planning program.

Keywords: forecasting, articial neural network, antenatal care

articial neural network

Mean Square Error

error
articial neural network
error

Received: 12 March 2019 Accepted: 27 April 2019

 Jurnal Biometrika dan Kependudukan, Vol. 8, No. 1 Juli 2019: 11–20

forecasting

Expanding
Maternal and Neonatal Survival

time series
articial neural
network Antenatal Care
Neural network

neural network

time series

Backpropagation
neural network

Comparison of hospital charge

prediction models for gastric cancer patients:
neural network vs. decision tree models
neural network

decision tree
neural network

Double Exponential
Smoothing Holt

error

Double Exponential Smoothing Holt

error
neural network

error
Izati dan Notobroto, Penerapan Metode Articial Neural Network

neural network
backpropagation
Jurnal Biometrika dan Kependudukan, Vol. 8, No. 1 Juli 2019: 11–20

neural network

neural network
backpropagation

max iteration learning

rate

trial and error

error
Izati dan Notobroto, Penerapan Metode Articial Neural Network

error

error

Trial and error

 Jurnal Biometrika dan Kependudukan, Vol. 8, No. 1 Juli 2019: 11–20

hidden layer
Neural network
hidden layer
input layer
Backpropagation
trial
neural network
and error hidden layer
hidden layer
error

Backpropagation
neural
trial and error hidden layer
network
input layer
hidden layer
hidden layer
output layer
error
hidden
neuron
layer error

hidden layer

Error Trial and Error Hidden Layer

Neural Counts Learning Criteria

Learning
Input Layer Hidden Layer Output Layer Max Iteration MSE Error
Rate
 Izati dan Notobroto, Penerapan Metode Articial Neural Network

trial and error

trial and error

trial and error

error

trial and error

hidden layer
Trial and error hidden
layer
hidden layer
input layer Trial and error Dengue
Backpropogation
hidden layer neural network
input layer error

Double Exponential
Smoothing Holt
trial and error neural network
hidden layer
trial and error
hidden layer Double Exponential
neural input layer Smoothing Holt

neural network
Neural network
output layer outliers

time
series neural network

neural network backpropogation

error
Jurnal Biometrika dan Kependudukan, Vol. 8, No. 1 Juli 2019: 11–20
 Izati dan Notobroto, Penerapan Metode Articial Neural Network

Target MDGs
Menurunkan Angka Kematian Ibu Tahun
2015 Sulit Dicapai

Statistik Daerah
Kabupaten Bondowoso

Jurnal Teknologi
Informasi dan Ilmu Komputer (JTIIK)

Mengenal
Penyakit Jantung pada Ibu Hamil

ASI Eksklusif dan 1000 Hari

Pertama Kehidupan

Skripsi

Panduan
SDGs untuk Pemerintah Daerah (Kota dan
Kabupaten) dan Pemangku Kepentingan
Daerah
error

Skripsi

Jurnal Teknologi
Informasi dan Ilmu Komputer (JTIIK)

Laporan Akuntabilitas
Kinerja Direktorat Bina Kesehatan Ibu
 Jurnal Biometrika dan Kependudukan, Vol. 8, No. 1 Juli 2019: 11–20

Tahun Anggaran 2014 Jurnal Kedokteran dan

Kesehatan
Prol Kesehatan Indonesia
2014

Laporan Akuntabilitas
Kinerja Direktorat Bina Kesehatan Ibu Jurnal Masyarakat
Tahun Anggaran 2015 Informatika
Buku Panduan Praktis
Prol Kesehatan RI 2015 Pelayanan Kesehatan Maternal dan Neonatal

Media Litbangkes Skripsi

Jaringan Syaraf Tiruan &

Metode dan Aplikasi Peramalan Pemprogramannya menggunakan Matlab

Jurnal Coding,
Jurnal Sistem Komputer Untan
Pustaka Kesehatan

BMC
Health Services Research