ALMOND

Dependent Variable: INVENTARIO

Method: Least Squares
Date: 04/05/21 Time: 11:00
Sample: 1977 2019
Included observations: 43

Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.  

Z0 1.114995 0.538172 2.071818 0.0449

Z1 -0.371347 1.374303 -0.270208 0.7884
Z2 -0.060047 0.454967 -0.131981 0.8957
C 25845.18 6596.997 3.917719 0.0003

R-squared 0.975507    Mean dependent var 230992.6

Adjusted R-squared 0.973623    S.D. dependent var 147449.8
S.E. of regression 23947.31    Akaike info criterion 23.09351
Sum squared resid 2.24E+10    Schwarz criterion 23.25734
Log likelihood -492.5104    Hannan-Quinn criter. 23.15392
F-statistic 517.7654    Durbin-Watson stat 0.164303
Prob(F-statistic) 0.000000

Y t =25845.18+1.114995 Z 0 t −0.371347 Z 1 t −0.060047 Z 2 t +u t

β 0=a0=1.114995

β 1=a 0+ a1 +a2 =1.114995−0.371347−0.060047=0.683601

β 2=a 0+ 2 a1+ 4 a2=1.114995+ ( 2∗(−0.371347) ) + ( 4∗(−0.060047) )=0.132113

β 3=a 0+ 3 a1 +9 a2 =1.114995+ ( 3∗(−0.371347) ) + ( 9∗(−0.060047) )=−0.539469

Y t =∝+ 1.114995 X t +0.683601 X t −1+0.132113 X t−2−0.539469 X t −3 +ut