A System Identification and validation of a model for a Thermal

Power plant using Black box data

(Case study for North East Electric Power Corporation (NEEPCO) Limited;
Located in Kathalguri, Assam, India)
Project submitted to the Department of Power and Control Engineering
Prepared by:
1 Dagem Moges
2 Abraham Tsige
3 Ebrahim Jemal
4 Mengistu Worku
5 Abyot Legesse
6 Solomon Asayehegn
7 Efrem Abera

School of Electrical Engineering and Computing

Department of Electrical Power and Control
MSc Program
January 16, 2022
Adama, Ethiopia
 Acknowledgment
We would like to express our special thanks of gratitude to my teacher Dr. Endalew Ayenew
(Ph.D.). Who gave us the golden opportunity to do this wonderful project on the topic of System
Identification, which also helped us in doing a lot of research and we came to know about so
many new things we are thankful to them.
 Abstract
This paper presents a mathematical model of an inventory system for thermal power plant
systems using a system identification approach. The processes start by collecting measurement
data samples from the plant directly. This set of the input-output data consists of an input to the
thermal power plant in the form of the gas feed to the plant Similarly the output from the thermal
power plant is in the form of generated energy. Next, The model identification process will begin
by collecting real measurement data samples with the aid of the MATLAB system identification
toolbox. The criteria for selecting the model that could validate model output with actual data
will base upon in providing good estimation and validation based upon performance criteria such
as final prediction error, the best percentage of model fit, and correlation analysis of residual for
output. The estimation will process by polynomial model technique choosing the best model
structure with low order among ARX, ARMAX, OE, and BJ; the performances of each type of
model.

Keywords: System identification; ARX, ARMAX, OE, and BJ; thermal power plant; MATLAB

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 Table of Contents
Acknowledgment ........................................................................................................................................... i
Abstract ......................................................................................................................................................... ii
1 Introduction ............................................................................................................................................. 1
1.1 Background..................................................................................................................................... 1
System Identification Overview ............................................................................................................ 1
1.2 Statement of Problem .................................................................................................................... 2
1.3 Objective ........................................................................................................................................ 2
1.3.1 General objective ........................................................................................................................ 2
1.3.2 Specific objective ........................................................................................................................ 2
2 System description ................................................................................................................................... 3
2.1 Overview of Thermal Power Plant ................................................................................................. 3
3 Methodology ............................................................................................................................................ 5
3.1 Modeling overview......................................................................................................................... 5
3.1.1 Auto-Regressive Model (ARX) ..................................................................................................... 5
3.1.2 Auto-Regressive and Moving Average Model (ARMAX) ............................................................. 5
3.1.3 Output Error model (OE) ............................................................................................................. 6
3.1.4 Box Jenkins model (BJ) ................................................................................................................ 6
4 Result and Discussion............................................................................................................................... 7
4.1 ARX Model ...................................................................................................................................... 8
Estimation and Validation Results ........................................................................................................ 8
4.2 ARMAX Model Estimation and Validation Results ....................................................................... 10
4.3 OE Model Estimation and Validation Results ............................................................................... 12
4.4 BJT Model Estimation and Validation Results .............................................................................. 13
Conclusion ................................................................................................................................................... 15
Reference .................................................................................................................................................... 16

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 1 Introduction
1.1 Background
System Identification Overview: System identification is a methodology for building
mathematical models of dynamic systems using measurements of the input and output signals of
the system.

The process of system identification requires that you:

● Measure the input and output signals from your system in the time or frequency domain.
● Select a model structure.
● Apply an estimation method to estimate values for the adjustable parameters in the
candidate model structure.
● Evaluate the estimated model to see if the model is adequate for your application needs.
System identification uses the input and output signals you measure from a system to estimate
the values of adjustable parameters in a given model structure. We can build models using time-
domain input-output signals, frequency response data, time-series signals, and time
To obtain a good model of your system, we must have measured data that reflects the dynamic
behavior of the system. The accuracy of our model depends on the quality of your measurement
data, which in turn depends on your experimental design. [1]
Data Quality Requirements: System identification requires that our data capture the important
dynamics of our system. The good experimental design ensures that we measure the right
variables with sufficient accuracy and duration to capture the dynamics we want to model. In
general, our experiment must:
● Use inputs that excite the system dynamics adequately.
● Measure data long enough to capture the important time constants.
● Set up a data acquisition system that has a good signal-to-noise ratio.
Estimate Model Parameter
The System Identification Toolbox™ software estimates model parameters by minimizing the
error between the model output and the measured response. The output model of the linear model
is given by model(t) = Gu(t) Here, G is the transfer function
. To determine G, the toolbox minimizes the difference between the model output model(t) and
the measured output means(t). The minimization criterion is a weighted norm of the error, v(t)

v(t) = years(t) – model(t). model(t), where the v(t) is called the simulation error or prediction
error.

1.2 Statement of Problem

Given input-output data (u(t), y(t)) from a generated by a system (Thermal power plant), to find a
system that approximates the plant and provides an estimate of the size of the approximation
error. And to compare the output of the simulated model output with the actual output.

To compute the different models using different approaches and plot the estimated parameters
and the true parameters as a function of time for comparison.

To compute different parametric models to compute their best fit with different methods and to
compare this best fit with each other.

1.3 Objective
1.3.1 General objective
Identify and validate model structure for North East Electric Power Corporation (NEEPCO)
Limited; Located in Kathalguri, Assam, India in MATLAB System Identification Toolbox with
the given input-output data.

1.3.2 Specific objective

✔ Using MATLAB system identification toolbox

✔ To select the best model structure for thermal power plant for North East Electric Power
Corporation (NEEPCO) Limited.

✔ To analyze the best fit, check where it is in the unit circle of poles and zeros, and analysis
auto-correlation and cross-correlation analysis of residual for output

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 2 System description
2.1 Overview of Thermal Power Plant
Thermal Power Plants are also called Thermal Power Generation Plant or Thermal Power Station. In
thermal power plants, the heat energy obtained from the combustion of solid fuel (mostly coal) is used to
convert water into steam; this steam is at high pressure and temperature. This steam is used to rotate the
turbine blade turbine shaft connected to the generator. The generator converts the kinetic energy of the
turbine impeller into electric energy. Thermo dyne Engineering Systems has a wide experience in boiler
manufacturing. That generates high pressure and temperature steam required to rotate the turbine and
generate electricity. [2]

Figure 2.1 thermal power plant overview

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North East Electric Power Corporation (NEEPCO) Limited; Located power generation company in the
North-Eastern region of India and beyond since 1976, working closely with the Ministry of Power and the
northeastern states to act in their best interest in tapping the enormous power potential of the region and
the country.[4] Incorporated in 1976 to plan, investigate, design, construct, generate, operate & maintain
power stations in the North Eastern Region of India under the Ministry of Power, Government of India,
NEEPCO is conferred with the Schedule A- Miniratna Category-I CPSE status and operates 7 hydro, 3
thermal and 1 solar power stations with a combined installed capacity of 2057 MW. NEEPCO
commissioned its largest Hydro Project Kameng(600 MW) in the N.E. The region,[4] With its Corporate
Office located in Shillong, the capital of Meghalaya, NEEPCO is equipped with a wealth of construction
and operations experience and our human resource is committed to harnessing the huge power potential
of the country with minimal impact on the environment.[4]

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 3 Methodology
System identification is a methodology for building mathematical models of dynamic systems using
measurements of the input and output signals of the system.

The process of system identification requires that you

: ✔ Measure the input and output signals from your system in the time or frequency domain.

✔ Select a model structure.

✔ Apply an estimation method to estimate values for the adjustable parameters in the candidate model
structure.

✔ Evaluate the estimated model to see if the model is adequate for your application

3.1 Modeling overview

3.1.1 Auto-Regressive Model (ARX)

The ARX model is the simplest model describing input to output path as a linear differential
equation. The model output is the sum of input and white noise, which enter directly into the
system considered as measurement noise. The ARX model provides maximum model estimation
and validation results while modeling order is high. The ARX model is defined as:

A(q)*y(t) =B(q)*u(t)+e(t) (1)

Where A and B polynomials are output and input respectively, and e(t) is the white noise.

3.1.2 Auto-Regressive and Moving Average Model (ARMAX)

The ARMAX model has an advantage over the ARX model because ARX model was not good
in describing the property of dynamics disturbance. While ARMAX model includes flexibility to
model disturbance separately by adding numerator polynomial C (z – 1). ARMAX model can be
useful to handle disturbance. This gives the model:

A(q)*y(t)=B(q)*u(t)+C(q)*e(t) (2)

Where, A, B, and C are polynomials, e(t) is white noise.

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3.1.3 Output Error model (OE)
This model parents used in case the noise comes only in at end stages of te ocsso be modeled. It
does not share many dynamics with the input. The Output Error models:

B(𝑞 −1 )
y(t) = 𝑢(𝑡) + 𝑒(𝑡) (3)
F(𝑞 −1 )

3.1.4 Box Jenkins model (BJ)

The general fractional representation of a polynomial model is referred to as a Box-Jenkins (BJ)
model structure of orders nb, nc, nd, nf and nk defined as

B(𝑞 −1 ) C(𝑞 −1 )
y(t) = 𝑢(𝑡) + D(𝑞−1 ) 𝑒(𝑡) (4)
F(𝑞 −1 )

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 4 Result and Discussion
Under the result we discuss the all tests and their result with their fulfillment of the system basic
requirements. First, we have to load the data we collected from the plant. To do this we should
have to open MATLAB and run the program which separates data in two, for estimation and
validation uses. We use 308 In our case we added 308 sample data for those data we are going to
use 154 for model estimation and the rest of data will go to use for model validation
The below figure shows input output sample data that we are going to use for estimation purpose

Figure 4.1 Input Output data for model estimation uses

The below figure shows input output sample data that we are going to use for validation purposes.

Figure 4.2 Input Output sample data for validation uses

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4.1 ARX Model
Estimation and Validation Results to compute ARX model with suitable order and delay, Fig 4.3 and
Fig 4.4 shows the best fits for ARX model (estimation and validation) as a function of number of
parameters used for various combination of A(q), B(q) and delay polynomials. The best estimation for the
model is achieved with validation when the order of A(q), B(q) and delay polynomials is selected as 5, 6
and 0 respectively that’s give 80.69 % of the best fit. Furthermore, model validation test is done by
investigating residual analysis., Figure 4.5, shows the auto-correlation and cross-correlation analysis of
residual for ARX model at various orders; it can be observed that residual is inside the confident region
(0.2 to -0.2) for all ARX model order combinations.

Residual analysis has been done to quantify the error between the predicted output and measured
output based on an estimated model from the validation data set...

The estimated model equation of the ARX

ARX model: A(z)y(t) = B(z)u(t) + e(t)

For arx560

A(z) = 1 - 0.3695 z^-1 + 0.03047 z^-2 - 0.1969z^-3 - 0.1305 z^-4 - 0.0954 z^-5 + 0.08821

B(z) = 1.793+0.6074 z^-1 - 0.4339 z^-2 - 0.4315z^-3 - 0.4894 z^-4 - 0.4493 z^-5

Figure 4.3 ARX model estimation result

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Figure 4.4 ARX model validation result

Figure 4.5 the auto-correlation and cross-correlation analysis of residual

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4.2 ARMAX Model Estimation and Validation Results
Similarly, the ARMAX model has been designed to identify the best possible model. Unlike the
ARX model here, it is also important to find C(q) polynomial along with A(q) and B(q)
polynomials to structure the noise model as well. Figure 4.6 and 4.7, shows the best fit between
measured, estimated, and validation output at different A(q), B(q), C(q), and delay polynomials
orders. The best result is achieved, when order is selected 3, 2, 1,0 for A(q), B(q), C(q) and delay
polynomials respectively, it provides the best possible model fit up to 80.65%. Figure 4.8, shows
the auto-correlation and cross-correlation analysis of residual for ARMAX model at various
orders; it can be observed that the residual is within the confident range (0.4 to -0.2) The
estimated mathematical model of the system using the ARMAX model can be written as;
ARMAX model: A(z)y(t) = B(z)u(t) + C(z)e(t)

A(z) = 1 +0.2501 z^-1 - 0.3579 z^-2 - 0.09261z^-3

B(z) = 1.415+1.394 z^-1

C(z)=1+ 0.7498 z^-1

Figure 4.6 ARMAX model estimation result

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Figure 4.7 ARMAX model validation result

Figure 4.8 the auto-correlation and cross-correlation analysis of residual

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4.3 OE Model Estimation and Validation Results

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4.4 BJT Model Estimation and Validation Results

B(z) = 1.904+0.593 z^-1

C(z) = 1-0.862 z^-1 - 0.23579 z^-2

D(z)=1- 0.862 z^-1- 0.1168z^-2

F(z)=1-0.3363 z^-1+0.04083z^-2

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 Conclusion
From the system identification of mathematical model for North East Electric Power Corporation
(NEEPCO) thermal energy using the sample data we can conclude that, Estimation and
Validation Results to compute ARX model with suitable order and delay, Fig 4.3 and Fig 4.4 shows the
best fits for ARX model (estimation and validation) as a function of number of parameters used for
various combination of A(q), B(q) and delay polynomials. The best estimation for the model is achieved
with validation when the order of A(q), B(q), and delay polynomials is selected as 5, 6, and 0 respectively
that’s gives 80.69 % of the best fit. Furthermore, a model validation test is done by investigating residual
analysis., Figure 4.5, shows the auto-correlation and cross-correlation analysis of residual for ARX model
at various orders; it can be observed that residual is inside the confident region (0.2 to -0.2) for all ARX
model order combinations.

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 Reference
[1] https://www.mathworks.com/help/ident/gs/about-system-identification.html

Access date January 1, 2022, 1:07PM

[2]https://www.thermodyneboilers.com/components-working-thermal-power-
plant/#:~:text=In%20thermal%20power%20plants%2C%20the,is%20connected%20to%20the%
20generator.

Access date January 14, 2022 8:07 AM

[3] https://www.mathworks.com/help/ident/ug/what-are-polynomial-models.html

Access date January 5, 2022 10:25PM

[4] https://neepco.co.in/about-us/company-profile

Access date January 16, 2022 08:58PM

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