— To deliver higher data rates to enable internet browsing. - To provide support for video telephony and the use of cameras to add pictures to texts (multimedia messaging service, or MMS). — To enable both of these technologies by delivering greater spectrum efficiency, allowing for much higher data throughout. The emergence of 3G happened at a time when a new access method had been pioneered by Qualcomm in the United States as one of their 2G solutions. Termed code division multiple access (CDMA), it promised significant improvements in spectrum efficiency by evenly spreading interference across all users. After much debate, it was decided to adopt CDMA as the underlying technology for 3G around the world. Even with this history, effective implementation of the 3G version of CDMA proved difficult. Early 3G networks did not deliver high data rates and were difficult to plan and manage. Cell range in the frequency bands provided at 2 GHz was small, resulting in the need for many new base stations. Cells “breathed” as they loaded, reducing in size as more customers accessed them. The mix of circuit-switched and packet-switched traffic proved difficult to manage. Perhaps this did not matter that much, as mobile internet adoption was slow, with users finding it very difficult to browse on the small-sized screens of phones of the early 2000s. Also, video telephony did not prove as popular as envisioned, as cell phones had small screens, ill- placed cameras, and high per-minute costs.Evolution of 3G slowly addressed these problems, with high speed packet access (HSPA) finally enabling and even exceeding the data rates originally promised. This moment coincided with the introduction of the iPhone, with its easy-to-use large screen and user interface that transformed internet browsing, causing extremely rapid growth in data demand. Moving from 3G to 4G Despite the improvements delivered by HSPA in its various forms, it was clear that 3G had not completely satisfied user performance demands. In particular, while various generations of HSPA radically improved the data rate, the latency of the technology (i.e., the delay between requesting information and receiving it) was still unacceptably long. The mix of circuit and packet switching made the networks less efficient and costlier to manage. The aim of 4G was to fix these problems. It did so with a different air interface, termed orthogonal frequency division multiplexing (OFDM), and by the removal of circuit switching. It also used wider frequency channels; this significantly improved the latency. The lack of circuit switching meant that voice calls could not be handled in the manner adopted in previous generations. Only some five years after this mix of technology was introduced is voice finally being carried over 4G using “voice over longterm evolution” (VoLTE). The more stable and data-optimized networks offered by 4G meant that higher data rates could effectively be delivered to mobile users. Hence, the popular perception was that 4G wassignificantly faster than 3G. It was also around 2.5 times more spectrum efficient than 3G, allowing an important improvement in network capacity. Some have noted that only the even-numbered generations have been truly successful, with 1G and 3G having significant flaws that were resolved by 2G and 4G, respectively. Whether 4G has flaws that need addressing through a fifth generation or whether 5G will suffer the curse of the odd-numbered generations is the topic of the rest of this book. New Entrants into the Game Over the last decade there has been a shift in the key manufacturers in the marketplace. The first four generations were led by long-standing large European and US companies such as Ericsson, Nokia, Alcatel, Qualcomm, Lucent, and Motorola. But during the 2000s many of these companies suffered, and in the early 2010s companies like Nokia, Alcatel, and Lucent merged or fragmented, becoming much weaker players with less research and development (R&D) capability and less budget to drive global standards development. In their place came Asian-Pacific companies, such as Huawei, Samsung, HTC, and LG. These new players initially adopted a tactic of being fast followers—letting others set the standards then delivering lower cost product within a few years. But as the 2010s progressed, these companies grew in stature and confidence; they became more significant global players indefining the role of new generations and delivering the research and standards needed. As new entrants, the Asian-Pacific companies had to find a way into the “system” and tended to focus on showing that they could deliver faster and better technologies. This has changed the dynamics of the industry, with manufacturers racing to deliver 5G sooner and with faster data rates than their competitors. The implications of this will be considered in subsequent chapters. Extrapolations Do Come to an End By way of comparison, consider being in the year 1970 and trying to make predictions about airline speed. A plot of the speed of key airplanes against time is shown in Figure 2.2, along with a trend line. Commercial Airlines Over Time concorde Cruising Speed (mph) 0a 200 . 1925 1980 1935 1940 1945 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 Date of introduction Figure 2.2: Airline Speed in 1970The extrapolation would be clear—speed increases by about 600 mph every 20 years. But now consider what actually transpired, as shown in Figure 2.3. Commercial Airlines Over Time 1600 concorde 1400 1000 800 600 400 Cruising Speed (mph) 200 . 1920 1920 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 Date of introduction Figure 2.3: Airline Speed in 2010 Concorde was an outlier. After its introduction, speeds settled back to broadly those of 1950. Had companies or governments embarked on the design of a 2,000 mph airliner in 1970, they would have gotten it badly wrong. The reason for the breakdown in the extrapolation was economic rather than technical—designs for 2,000 mph airlines do exist, but they would be much too expensive to operate. Often it is economics, rather than technology, that causes these “laws” to come to an end. Perhaps the same is true of mobile speeds in 2016. The introduction of 5G could end up being like Concorde—a superb feat of engineering but of limited value to all but a small minority. Whether there is any evidence that this might be the case is the subject of Chapter 3.Chapter 2 References Business Insider. 2016. “Huawei Has Taken the Next Step in Setting the Standard for 5G." Business Insider, December 1. https://www.businessinsider.com/huawei-will-lead -the-way-for-5g-standard-2016-12. Dinham, Peter. 2016. “Optus, Huawei Claim Speed of 35Gps with 5G Trial.” iTWire, November 16. https://www.itwire.com/telecoms-and-nbn/75762-optus,-huawei-clai m-speed-of-35gbs-with-5g-trial.html. Ericsson. 5G Systems: Enabling Industry and Society Transformation. January 2015. http s://www.ericsson.com/assets/local/news/2015/1/what-is-a-Sg-system. pdf.