Carbon Dioxide and Climate: A Scientific Assessment {Aa Hoe Study Group on Carbon Dixie sn Climate Woods Hole, Maichustt duly 28-27, 1979, ‘othe Cina Reserch Board Asembly of Mathematical and Physi Sener Navona Research Cool NATIONAL ACADEMY OF CIENCES Wangion, DCNOTICE The post at he ject feet wo appre by he Goren ‘Sndny"o Smee Aston Asem) 8 Eas nd he tse ot SRF aL Fesveme Climate Research Board ene. Suoml Univesity of Wsconsin-Madison, Char Francis P Bretherton, National Center for Atmosphere Research Dayton H, Cleve Mobi Oi Corporation (tira) “Thomas Donahue, Univesity of Mihizan Herbert Friedman, Natal Reeech Labortory J Merbert Hllomon, Massachusetts institute of Techolony ‘hares W. Howe, University of Colorado ‘ohn Ini, Brown Uniesty Robert W. Kates, Clark Univesity Jon E Katzbach, Unnersityof Wisconsin Maison {Cec E. Leth, Ntional Cntr for Atmospeic Reach Wiliam A. Nereners, Sipps Institution of Oceanography Roge:R. Revell Universit of Calor, San Deo Joseph Smarty, National Oceanic and Atmoxpherc Administration Frederick Es Sith, Harvard Unies ‘Ku K Tuekan, Yale University John Wass, University of Minnesota Sylvan 1. Wier, Michigan State Univesity Waren Wooster, Lerty of Washington LIAISON WITH FEDERAL AGENCIES Eugene W. Bey, National Sense Foundation John G. Daas, Departneat of Sate Eevard Epstein, National Climate Progam Office, Nutra Oceanic and “Atmospheric AdmiistaionClimate Research Soars Seven Fajr, Costas on Commerce, Science and Tasporation, US. ‘Senate bert W Frid, Department of Defense Lawrence R. Greenwood, National Aeronautics and Space Administration Galen Hat, Department of Aaoulure Keith Howard, Department ofthe Inter Gerald J. Korach, Committe on Commerce, Scene and Transportation, US. Senate tan Maen, Sobeommitee on Natur Reuss snd ovonmen, US. Hose of Representatives Loyd Money. Department of Transportation Dougs H. Sargeant National Oca ad Ataoepere Adminiration Davi Sade, Department of Energy Hasbat L Wise, Environmental Protection Agency STAFF Jolin, Perry, Netioal Resestch Coane, Brace Sorta’ Rater, Chen, National Asademy of Sciences, Resident Fellow ‘Ad Hoc Study Group on Carbon Dioxide and Climate Jule G. Cuamey, Massachusensnsute of Teshnoloy, Chrnan [Akio Arakawa, University of Cori, Los Angeles, Da James Bk, Univer of Washington ‘Bert Bolin, Unoeraty of Stockholm Rott E Dickinson, National Cente for Atmospheric Reach Richacd M. Goody, Faand Unversity Cevl E. Leth National Centr for Atmosphei Research Heng M, Stoumel, Woods Hole Oseanopaphie Istution Cor Wunsch, Masachasetslsttute of Tecbaaony STAFF Sohn, Perey Rober'S. Chen Doris Bouaiens ‘Theres Fiherae enoptos se prox ptnous 9 aupt ‘usesiexed pf ‘z'e ucTases ‘6 “4 + saosqe ptnon weashs yaaee-asaydsouae, auoyartpes seTos ss9T UM 6°0 anoqe quosqE PTO AREAS A r ich of our sus planets as ts own iat, dteined in rg measure by the plants separation fom is mother tar and he natu of atmosphere Manet. Life on our own earths possible oly because of its equable ciate, andthe distbution of climatic regimes aver te lobe has profoundly shaped the elution of man and is soy. For more than a century, we have been aware that changes in the com position of the atmosphere coulalfet ts aii to trap the sun's energy for ‘ur Beefit. We now have icontonertible evidence tat the stmoepere i Indeed changing and. that we oureles contbute 9 hat clang. ‘Atmospheric concentrations of carbon dixie ae study increasing, and thew change are inked with man's eof fon fel and exploitation ofthe lind Since carbon dioxide plays sigan oe inthe het budget of the alipspher it easonabe to suppose that continued increases would affect "Tete concerns have prompled 4 number of investigations of the imp cations of increasing carbon doxiée. Their consensus hs bee ha inreasng ‘arbom diode wil lead to a warmer earth with diferent dstnbution of matic regimes. In view ofthe implieatons ofthis efor national and Ietenational poly plstalg, the Ofce of Scnce snd Technalogy Policy requested the National Academy of Scenes to undertake an independent ‘ileal asetament of the slntie base of thee sus and the degree of ‘ertainy tht could beatahed to thee ests In order toads tis qutton in etiey, one woul hav to per into the world of our andchildsn, the word of the twentyist century. Between now and then, how much fue wil we Bur, how many tes wil wecu? How il the carbon thus elas He dstbuted between the ert, ocean, and atmosphere? How wold changed climate alfest the world Society of 2 generation yet unbora A complete asesent ofall thee vl ea long and dic ask Teacemed feauble, however, to sut with single basic question: Hf we vere indeed. certain that stmospherc carbon dione would Incsene Known schedule, how wel could we proc the climatic consequences? We sere Tortaate in securing the cooperation of outstanding group of dn fished scents to study this question. By reaching outside the membership ofthe Cimate Research Boud, we hoped to find unused wept on thi Imporant and much tule is. "The conclosions ofthis bebo intense iwestiston may be comforting to scintats but dituring to policymaker I etbon diondecontinoes 0 increas, the stady group finds o eon to du that ciate shang wil result and no reson 10 Beeve tat thee change willbe neigh. The onclsions of prior studies have been generally reafimed. However, the Study group points ot that the ocean, the get and ponderous Mywhel of the lobal climate stom, may be expected tn sow the courte of oberabe matic change. A waitandsee pay may mesn waiting unt sto te Tm cooperation with other ut ofthe Naonal Research Com, the Climate Research Board expects to continue fevow and ssiesmeat of this important ive in order To clay further the scents question involved nd the range of uncertainty in the principal contsions, We hope tht thie Preliminary report covering but one aspet of tis many-faceted se wil ove to be 4 consructvecontiuton to the Formeltion of national and ‘Weare patel to Jule Chamey and to the mers ofthe study poup for ‘peeing to undertake this tak. Thee digece, expe, ander ada- meat hs yielded a report that has giant sharpened oor perception of ‘he implictions ofthe cibon diode have and ofthe ue of lmate mele ln hei consideration. Veiner , Som, harman Climate Reetch Board Preface In reponse to 4 request fom the Dietor of the Ofie of Seenoe and Technology Ply, the President ofthe National Academy of Selences com ened a study group unde the auspices ofthe Cimate Research Boat of the NNitonal Research Coane toasts the scientific bats for projection of oblate climate changes resulting from man-made tlests of cub ‘ln nto the atch, Specialy cur carpe was ‘To identity the encgal promis on which our erent understanding of the question is based, 2 Tosses quantitate the adegtacy and uncertainty of ou knowledge of these actos and process, 3 To summarize n concise and objective terms ove Best presat unde stand of the carbon donde/elmate ie forthe bent of pb: snakes ‘The Study Group wet at he NAS Sumer Studs Center at Wonde Hole, Masachusets, on July 23-77, 1979, and additional consultations between ‘atious members ofthe group took pice a subsequent weeks. Werecnaned fiom the outset that estimates of future concentatons of atmosphere thon diode ate necenariy uncertain bean of oa mgrfect abit 10 ‘jet the Future workings of both hum socety and the sphere. We dd ‘ot conde oureles competent to addres the former and recognived tht the ter geoup of problems had recently ben reviewed in cosierble deta bythe Scenic Committee on Problems ofthe Environment (SCOPE) of theIntentional Coun of Scenic Unions. We therefore focused ou ten i on the chmate stom il? and oat ability 1o feels respons to hanging lees of carbon onde. We hope thatthe rests of ut study wil Sontuibute to etter enderstanding of the implications of this se for finaeelinate and man welfare, Ino review, we ha acces no oly tothe principal published studies rating to carbon onde and climate bat alo fo aditional snpublihed Teles For thee contributions, we gatefily acknowledge the ssstance af "he following eens: ‘A Glut, Bush Meteorological OfTice 5-Hlasen, Godard atte foe Space Studie, NASA S. Manabe, R-T. Wetheald, and K. Bryan, Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, Nona We soo ad the benefit of dcusons with 3 mamber of other sient inthe ous of the review. We wal to thank the following fade for hele algal comments R.S. Lindon, Haratd University CG. Rowth Univesity of Mam RJ. Reed, Unies of Washagion GW, Pasdge Commonsesith Scent and Industri Research Organiza tion (C5180), Australia W.L.Gates, Oregon State University Finaly, Lwsh t expres my appreciation fo the members of the Study Group for thet conus npr, the veport benefited wet Tom ‘Akio. Arakawa careful examination of the seus of general cclation ode studies, Our group as gratefl othe sa ofthe Climate Research Boa forthe suppor, Sule G. Charney, Charan Aud Hoe Study Grup oa Carbon Doe and Clit Contents SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS 1 (CARBON IN THE ATMOSPHERE 4 PHYSICAL PROCESSES IMPORTANT FOR ‘CLIMATE AND CLIMATE MODELING 1 2 Radiative Heating 7 132 Chus Efece 9 33 Oseans 10 MODELS AND THEIR VALIDITY n 4.1 Three Dimensional General Cirlaton Model B REFERENCES 8 BIBLIOGRAPHY 2 APPENDIX: Comparison of Soow-Iee Elects inthe Modes Examined a1 Summary and Conclusions We have examined the pncpal temps to simulate the elects of ncrened mosphere CO, on eimate, In doings, we have limited our consiéerations to the dee clint eet of steady ng atmosphere concentrations of (CO, and have assumed arate of CO, increase that would ead to doubling of sebonne concentrations by sme time the rt half of he twenty rt entury AS indicated In Chapter 2 of Us report, sachs rate & comitnt ‘sth bserations of CO; sncresses inthe recent pst and wth projections ofits future sources and sinks. However, we hate nor examined sew he many uncertainties i these projections, ach af their implicit assumptions Sih seped to the workings ofthe wld economy and the role of the borphere in the carbon cycle, These impos an uncertainty Beyond tht srsing Irom oer necesnly imperect knowledge of the mania and onpex climate system of he eth ‘When its ssumed tha the CO, coatent of the atmospheres doubled and statistical thermal equiiam i achiwed, the more relist ofthe modeling forts predict» global surface Warming of Between PC and 35°C, with, [eater tnrees at igh lntitdes Thi range reflect Both ancetsinis ‘Physical understanding and oacurcis ang fom the need to fedace the Futhematial problem to one that canbe handled by even the fastest sei ale clecronic computers. 1 scam, however, tat none of the mods ‘leulations predict nepipble warming. ‘The primary effect ofan crea of CO; ito case more absorption of ‘etal adation from the euts urface and ths to latete the a te perature inthe toposphere. A song postive feedback mechanism i the ccompunying incese of mcr, whi ian evn mote powerfal tbsorber 12 ‘CAREON DIOXIDE AND CLMATE: A SCIENTIFIC ASSESSMENT ‘of teretial edison, We have examined with ct al Known negative fed tack mechanisms, sucha crest in low or mie cloud amount and sve oncuded tht the oesipifieatons and nacuraies in the model ate not Tiey to ave ited the pital corlusion that there wl be appreciable swarming. The knowe negative feedback mechanisms ean reduce the warming bt they do no appear to hes strong the postive maitre feedback We state the most potable ghbal warming fora doubling of CO. to be ast 13°C witha probable err of 15°C. Ourestinat tase prima on out ‘evew of sere of eaeuations with thteedimensonal modal of he global "morphei eielaion, whieh summarized in Chapter 4. We have ao re ‘sewed simpler mals that appear to coualt the mola phys! factors. “These ge qualitatively sme ret. ‘One ofthe major uncertainties has to do withthe tower of the increased oat int the cosas. Tt wel Know that the oceans area ther elt, seni thea wt and cooing ise. The tandaed assumption Ts teen that, whie het is tansfered rapa nto reaiey thin, wel mid surface ayer ofthe ocean averaging about 70m a dep, the an erin the deeper waters en sow thatthe stnphei emperor etches effetive equiv wih the mixed ayer in x decade or se sem fous ‘te pose tht the capacity of the deeper oceans o abu eat hs Been ‘Soul underestinate, especialy that of the mtemedate watts of the ‘btropel rer inp below the mived ayer and above the mun thermo line this 50, warming wil prosed at a slower rat util thes ine mediate waters are Brought to a temperate at whih they ean no fogs orb het ‘Ou estimates ofthe rats of versal exchange of mas between the mised and intermediate layers and the volumes of water invaed pve 3 delay of the ‘tder of decades in he tine a which thecal equibriom wal be reached “Tie delay imps thatthe acta warming a any pen tine wl be ppc ‘lables than tha calcubed on the assumption hat thera equim feached quicly. One comquence may be that prceptibie feperatue hangs may not become apparent neti 9 soon aa een antipated. We ‘nay tot be pen a warning unl the CO, lading isuch tht an appecioble ‘lime chang i inewtabe The eli warming wl eventually occur ‘al mel hve been postponed ‘The warming wll be acconpaied by shits in she sographia dtu ‘los of the various ciate lent sacha femperture, ral, evspor ‘ion and so mare. The evidence thatthe ations a these aromas sith lauds, lone, and season wl he at leat a rat 3 the globally "reraped changes themes, an t would be mending To predict regional "lint changes onthe Bs of global or za verages alone. Unfortunatly, fonly grass loblly and zoally averaged features ofthe present climate can Summary and Concsions 3 row be reasonably well simalsted. At present we eno! simulate accurately the deal of reponal climate and ths cannot pred the lostons and Intests of rein climate changes with conden. Thi situation may be expected To npove gradually as greater scent undestanding is agited nd fst computers ste bal “Ta summarize, we have ted but hive been unable o find any overtooked ‘x underestimated phys effects that sould ede the cently etimated ‘bal warming de to a doublag af atmosphere CO; to neglgibe propor tions or revere the altogether However, we ele gute pose tht the capacity of the intermediate ates of the acento absorb beat could ‘day the estimated warming by several decades. Te appets hat the warming wl evenly occur snd the stocited regional ciate changes 20 impor ‘ne to the asement of soeieconomis consesuences may wll be nr ‘St, bu unfortunately the ter cannot yet be adequately projected.2 Carbon in the Atmosphere [bref account of the hey fetes ofthe exchange of carbon between the mosphere the living aod deed ogc matter om and (the terrestrial io Sphere, and the ocese ese 1 bass forthe discus tha allows ‘The itemediate yes (100-1000) of the cota alo py central le both a snk for exces atmosphere CO, and for het. For these eso some basi features ofthe cxtbom eye wil beetle, based primaiy on ‘he recently publihed review y the Sete Commie on oben ofthe Environment (SCOPE) of the Intemational Council of Scene Unions Botner at 1979) The CO, conenvatio in the atmosphere as sien fromm about 314 ppm (pars per milion, volume) in 1958 to about 334 ppm ia 1979, ten an increas of 20 ppm, which is equitalent to 42+ 10° ton fearon, Dung ‘hs same pevad, about 78) 10” tons of carbon have been emited tothe mosphere by fosel combustion. 1 as Turther been estinted that rmove than 150 10° tone of carbon have bee elesed to the atmanphete since the midle ofthe nlateeath century, a which tne the COs concer ‘usin a the atmosphere mot key was ethan 300 pn, probaly about 280 ppm. BY reducing the extent ofthe word fv (at presen about 30 percent ofthe land sufce) and increasing the ace offend (at present abou 10 percent of the land srice) ma has lo transformed carbo in ee ania ganic mater in the sol ito COs, The magnus of this addon er som ino the amasphete is poedy Know. Estates range Between 40 LO" tons and moc han 200 10 tons forthe perio ince eary lt cet ‘Sine these emisons ae not known with any degree of accuracy ding the period for which accurate obtrstion of atmosphere CO, ae avaiable (1958-1979), we know only approximately the ratio Between the no reas of COs. in he sine and the tot manindiced emissions However, a lest $0 percent ofthe emisins and perhaps move thin 70 pcent ave been ustsfered into other natal reser for carbon. We ‘eed comider thee pose ainks fr thi rane 1. The remining frets of the word (bsaue of more effective carbon simiation a eu higher CO; feels nthe atmphet) 2 The surface and intemediate waters the wean (above abot 1000); 5. The deepsea (below tout 1000 m. The dsribtion of past embsons of CO, between thet sinks ot eatily clea. On the bass ofthe rcatbonsoncentaton inthe de i ss teen conched that only athe smal part ofthe emisions to far ave been ansfered into the deep sea. However, the proper tle ofthe des 2 potential sink for fssoel CO, fas nt ben accurately aseed. Ae i fated in Section 4.3 on the oceans, theoretical estimates of ass tamer from the mited yer nt the intermedi waters lndate tat this re of ‘he ocean may have been a mote anportnt snk for carbon diode emited lato the atmosphere than has so far been comidezed. This concson tr aso in accord with observations ofthe penetration france tae sstacet produced by muclar-weapons testing int te inermetiate waters. Whether Some increase of carbon inthe remaining werd forest ht wecuied tot ‘ur limited knowlege ofthe base fates ofthe cubun cycle means that proton of future increases of CO, in the atnsphere cent of Tose enisions are uncer, It his Been customary to sume Yo bein sith that about SD percent of the essons wl iayin the atmospete The Possibly thatthe inlermedte waters of the oan, ad maybe aso the ep sea, are in mote sap coasct with the stmphere may reduce th pure 10 40 percent, peaps even co esometat slr igre On the other hand, a continuing reduction af the world forests wl further ald f0 say Ince de to fru el combustion, The aly of the ota to serve 2 sink for CO, emsion tothe atmasphere is edosed a the concenteatont Increase because of the chemical chancery ofthe carbonate sytem of theses all the foal reeves were ed for combustion, the aiborne ‘ration would increase considerably above the valves of 30 t 50 percent rmeatloned abot. Glob osu resources contain lest S000» 10° tons of carbon of which ol and gs tgeter represent about 10 percent. Themaxim coneiable amouet of future release from the land biephere due to deforestation and other changes nln use ofthe ener of $00 » 10” tons, An emision of $000 10" toms of carbon a CO: (about et times the presndastrilsmount of CO; inthe stops) ding the next few centuries probably woul lead to four to six times higher COs concen ‘atl than st present, t, 1500-2000 pp. ve of the hge amounts involved, it seems unlikely tat wreae in carbon stored the tet ospere cold ede thes als tantly, Decne of COs levels the atnenphere wl ake cents esau ofthe slow turnover ofthe dep seu, However a He sore COyrch wats teach the calclum cabonate deposits the continental oper, solution may increase the capcity of the oceans to absorb COs Since this press Fundamentally depends onthe rte with which ocean water cn ein Contact with the Bottom sediments, 201 hikey to proceed quickly althagh out alede is nadeqate to aes the role ofthis process moe than ql tie at presen ‘Coasiering the uncetsie, i¢ would appear that & doting of et mosphere carbon dixie wil sur by abot 2030 the uw offs cs ontines to row ata ate of about 4 percent per yen, 35 was the case Un a few yeus ago Ihe growth rate were 2 pereent, he te for dating would te delayed by 15 0.20 yen, while constant ute of fon acs at Toay’s Teves shits the tine for Jobling well nto the twenty second cent Thove se considerable uncetsnies about the future changes of a sospher CO, concentrations due to burning of fossils It spear in Prt that the cle of termediate waters sink or CO teed el onseration.Peictions of COs changes on tne sales of SO to 10D yeas may be sgniicamly influenced by the results of such studs, However, Censiderble changes of atmerpheri CO; ie wil ceil occur ares ‘of continuing we of fo fuel Thi concn psn basi for the Fatowing dicuson of posible climate changes. 3 Physical Processes Important for Climate and Climate Modeling 1m onder to ses he clint effets of ncesedstosphk concentrations of COs, we consider fat the primary physkalproeses that inence the ‘lima’ tem a6 a whole. Thee proces ar ert sud i spl models whose phys characterises may ready be comprehended. The inde Standing deed fom these slits enables one better to aster thee formance of the theeslimensoal cicuation modes on which accmate fimaes ust he hae 31 RADIATIVE HEATING 3.1. Direct Rasa effect ‘An inseste of the CO; concentation i the atmosphere increas its ab Sorption and emis of infrared ration and alo increases hth #6 sorption of sola radiation. Fora doublag of atmorphere COs, the 1 Suing change tenet heating ofthe woporpere, cota, and nd which ‘equalent to a change in the net rite Px atthe topopense) woul Sehount to 3 global aerageof shout AQ =-4W ar Wall ther properties of ‘he atmoxphee remained unchanged. This quantity, AQ, hasbeen bined by several investor, for example, by Ratuathan ee (1979), who aso ‘compute is ale as» Tustin of tite and season at ive efarence ‘ther COs icine slelations. The vse 4 W sis obsined by several ‘methods of eleulting infrared rite transfer, Thee ethos have been iecty tested against lboratory measurements and, inet, a foun 0te ln agcement with observation when apped to the deduction of a mosphere temperature profes om stelle ifared measurements Thee i thus elie hgh confidence that the ect et heting vale tas bon ‘stmted comely to within #28 percent However it shouldbe emphasized ‘ht the aceratecalelon of th tr has gue 3 caf eatnent of the thermal radiative nes wit teshnigues that have heen developed over the past to dvnder or more. Cri ertimates may esl be i er by 2 Inne fator Ths a att report, MacDonald eal (1979) obain 30 of to Wav, vale about 1S to mes too ate CGester uncertainties aren estimates of the tenting change in global rnean surface temperate, AT, for thi quantity inenced hy waous feedback proenes that wil increase or crease the heating rate fom i tirect slut Thee proses wil nence the feedback parameter it the fxpesion AT= QM For the simplest ease la which only the temperate ‘hang comsdeed, andthe eat assumed tobe effete a Dackbody, ie value of b= 40D ie realy computed tobe about 4 Was? "For sucha cat, doubled CO, produces atempertire increase of 1°C 212 Feedback Etec ‘The most important and obvious ofthe feedback effets ees fom the et, that a hgh surface temperature produces a much higher ae ofthe srfage ‘trim watersapor presure through the highly nonlinear Clpesron {Chasis reation. Ths, incur, leads to incensed water vapor in the a romhere, A plaasble ssimption, bore out quately by model studs, is that the relative humidity remias unchanged. The associated increase of Sbulite humidity increases the infaed abaoptty’ of the atmosphere over that of CO, alone and provides a pose feedback. Tete sao lncressed birpion of solr radon bythe incesed water vapor, whieh father increases the inated feedback by about 10 petent. As wth CO the radi Uke transfer cleulaton of watrsapor effects is relatiely rele and the onsence that Ais decreed and AT inteted ty abou 3 factor of 2, For doubled CO, the iemperatt nese Weald be °C ‘One-dimensional radiive-convecive modes that sume Med ete Inomiiy, 2 xed toporperic pe ate of 6.5K kr and xed loud over and height pte X= 20W nr” K-" (Ramanathan and Coakley, 1978) ‘This vale uncertain by a east 20.5 W as K because of uncertainties in the posible changes of relive humidity, tenperaire ape ate, and loud cove and cloud eg. ‘Snow and ice albedo provide anohee widely dicused pose feedback rmecanim (oe, for example, ish and Cass, 1977, snd aon weteenes therein A the sutace temperature incest, the area covered by snow or Physical Proce Important fr Climate and Climate Modeling ° ice decreases; this lowes the mean loa albedo and incense feastion of solr radiation absorbed. Estimates ofthis eet lea 1. furter decree of Ny between 0.1 and 09 W qr? KY? with Oakey vale Some ance tainty m abedo feack aso arises fom cloud fess dscused sn the next ‘ecti. Taking int consideration al the shove diet elects and feedbacks, Wwe estimate Ato be LT 08 Wms? KC and hence AT for doled CO; #0 ‘es he range of 1,610.45 K, sith 24 Kaley va, 32 cLoun eFrects Most clouds are efficent rectors of sla adation and 3 the same tne ficient absorbers (and emits) of tees infared radiation. loud has produce ewo oppaite effets aloud amount and hee refetion inctese, the solar radation avaiable to heat the system decreses, but the dctssed Uupsad infaed radation at the topopzise and downward radation fom the base of the cloud ries the temperate of the earth's sce and ‘wopopht. Because she change of solar absorption dominates, the nr eu of creased low cloudless, and ery kel also mile louie, to lower the tempotatuve of the wstem. The net eet ofan inteted amon of ih ‘rus clouds les certain bea ther adn characteristic ae sng to height. thickness. and micophyscalstacture. Preset exists ae that theyre the ermperatue ofthe ent’ aufce and the topospers 1 follows that if re in gba temperature wes ian incre amount of low or mild clouds, there i negative feedback, and if ie ‘aha temperaue ess in a increased amount of high clouds, there 3 Poste feedback. The eet of clo albedo by sl ges a nepative fed ack. That if clouds at all levels wore incrsied by 1 percent the mosphote-erth system would absorb abot 0.3m? ee sar radiation fn ose about 0.5 W on? fs thera adaton, The net effet wo hea ooling of aout 0.4 W 52, or this oesumed together with 8 doling of (CO, decree of 30 from 40 1036 W a How important the ote cloud effects are however, an extremly sithcalt question to newer. The cloud dibuion a proto the entire tlinate sstem, in which many other feedbacks are ivased, Trustworthy nswers canbe obaed only though comprehensive america modeling of the general creltions of the atmosphere and oeaas together wi al tion by comparson ofthe observed withthe model produced cloud ype and mounts. Unfortunately cloud observations ia slfiient deal for acctae “aidton of models arent aailable at peen. Since india clouds ae below the gi le ofthe pene ciclation ‘models, ways must he found to rate the foal loud aout ina ld Box To© ‘CARON DIOXIDE AND CLIMATE: A SCIENTIFIC ASRESSMENT ‘he point variables. Existing puameterzations of cloud amount in eral chelation models re phycaly very era, When empitaladjostnents ‘of parameter are made to achieve versie, the model ay ape To be ‘aldsed aint the preset climate. But such ting by Hel? dors not [uae that the response of clouds 3 cing nthe COs concentration tis tuned, Le mas thus be emphasized tat the modeling of clouds sone of ‘he weakest ns Inthe general eclation modeling efor "The shove uncertainties, and others such as those connected with the sodeing of ground hydology and snow and ie formation, ceate uncer hs nthe roel ells that wl be decribed in Chapter 33 OCEANS Existing numeral modes of the atmasphere, which eat the ocean having ‘no meridional heut transports of ite omn, may gine xmewhat proper Accounts ofthe CO, input, I cient etinted that st sae tes the ean transport at mach sO percent ofthe poleward het Mx i the exstng climatic system. A proper counting for cceanic dams has See ral posible consequences as level of CO, continue To The role ofthe ostan a an atte tansporte of heat meio leads one 10 colder several possible feedhack mechanisms. Atmoephere model ‘get tht the warming at hgh itodes willbe lager than at fo ltudes. this reduced atmosphere Prosi reduces the wind tes tthe ocean surface (and thee me not good estimates ofthe antipated sizeof sich 4 ‘eduction itis pouible that octane meridional het Hix might be eed, ecto of the vegled veal adv heat Balance ofthe total system, the mosphere would then he required to compensate for reduced oceanic heat ‘easpor by seepening the eqntorto-gle temperature gradient, tus ame lating somewhat the predicted polar warming. However, the total atmo sphere warming would ot Ukely be seat affected, merely its istrbution inna ‘The only pat ofthe ocean tat has Ben nce inthe genera tion modeling of the CO, effects Is the mixed ayer. The rtonae for thi Simplifeation i that ony the mixed yer needs to be modeled in oder to ‘eal with the anual cyl, whe the het capacity of the deeper oan dows ot matter once therm equi har ben Teche ‘On meses of decade, however, the coupling betwsen the mite ayer and the upper thermocline must be considered. The connections between ‘pper and lower ocean ae pneraly presumed to have response tines ofthe ‘tdr of 1000 yeas, the eset coupling blag local vets dfsion and Tormation of bottom water thigh ates, This ignore the mechani of man convergence of the surface mined yes in the age subtopic ge, Physical Proce Important fr Climate ad Cimate Modeling " Which pumps water down into the uppe thermodine ve ore than ba the ‘cea Surface se, eservot mch ager ta that ofthe mie lye lone, “The contections between the Upper thermocline eee and the deep osean may inded segue very Lg me constants, but the earbon ad heat bade Ing othe decal timescale must account property Tor he potently ge reservoir diectly beneath she mixed layer ‘Simple mode calculations aoding Ekman pamping from the mised layer {nto the intermediate water ofthe onder of 10-20 cry" ad estates of rug coetiens for the itermedate waters from tracer stiles (Ostlond al, 1974; Natenal Scence Foundation, 1979) sugest that the uppe Uermoclnereswoir communicates ellectivly with the mae layer on time seaes of several decades. Therefore, the effective thermal capac) of the ‘Goeat fr absorbing het thes ime scales nary an order of mogntade seater than that of the mixed layer alone Hts reser I indeed i Sve, i coud delay the attainment of ultimate gob thermal equiv ty th onder of few decades. It woul alsa ines the rate at which the ‘ocean cam take up carbon rr the tr a might atleast partially account For the current dicrepancies between the observed ries amephere COs and ‘he estimated se defo the aattopogels put of CO, sto he a "ae po he el ec of he na he mate end sive orem cnet hey eon Se nd4 Models and Their Validity “The independent studies of the CO, mate problem tht we have examined, range from caeuation with simple adintveconective mode to only ‘nd erally averaged heatbalunce modes with boizntaly ifs het fachange and snowice albedo feedbacks t fledged thie-deniona ‘eet icultion models (GCMs) ivavig mst of the fran phys Troceues. Our confidence im our conchson that + doubling of CO, wll, fentully elt in sigueant temperature ineeass and other lime hangs is Bue on the fact that the resol ofthe adatveconvective and Teatbaance model studies can te Understood ia purely phys terms and tue reed by the moe complex GCMs. The st ie moc information on eorephical variations in hesting, precipitation, and snow and ic eo, ut they gee tesonably wall wih the sper models on the magus of the rec heating eects "The radatve-conective models have been revwed by Ramanathan sn Coakley (1978). The luda varying energy -ance modes were org rally developed by Budsko (196%) and Sellers (1959) for sts of climatic Change. More receny they have been eiployed by many authors aad Ramanathan ef at (1979) and MacDonalé ef al. (1979), for COilimate shang determinations Thee modes preside th iftared feedback but taleuate the snow-ice albedo feedback y coupling 1 simple parameter ied orzonal heat tensport; he saow and ie ecu poleward of the Ite tugeat which the temperature hasan empically prescribed vale, The pin Fal vale of these models les thir lnelsion of the stowice albedo Feedback. However, they do not deal with real geography or explicit dy ‘amis and therefore can yeu oly crude approximations tothe ual ‘aration ofthe CO; sndoced tempertae changes 2 Modes apd Thee Vaisiey 3 41 THREEDIMENSIONAL GENERAL CIRCULATION MODELS: ‘We procted now to a dicusion ofthe threesimensona model snulations ‘on hich our conesons are pinay based. Some ofthe existing general Cheultion model have ben tied to predict the eliate for doubled or (padrpled CO, concentration. The els of several such predictions were {rll tous tee by S. Manabe ad his colleagues a the NOAA Geophys Cal Fld Dynamics Laboratory (heater eat 2 MI,M2, and M3) and ‘wo by J. Hans and his colleagues athe NASA God nse fr Space Studies (hereafter dented st HI and 2). Some results obtained withthe Bhsh Meteorological Office model (Mitchel, 1979) mere also made valle to ts but wll no be described here because both the sea-surace emperatre {andthe sexes bution were prescabed mths mode, thus lacing song nstaimts onthe srfice AT, wheres ie ust the surface AT dat We Wish ‘The only one ofthe fv predictions salable in publshed form ls ML MD fs described in prepucstion manoscpt and ia research poposl We Jeane f M3 and 2 though personal communication. “the Geophyiet Fluid Dynami Laboratory and the Godard Istitte fox Space Studs general craton modes, which re the base modes wed ‘nthe Mand H sens, respecte, were ndependenty contacted and ile fram one another in « number of physical and mathomatisl spect. Tey so fer in espet to thi sogaphies, sexton changes, cloud feedbacks, {now and ie properties, abd horontl std vertical gd tesoltons. These Sierences are summacizd in Table. yt tbl swap” meas tat the nods ocean hata et capacity thovgh it provides water srace for ‘rapration, and “mixed yer” means that the model ocean hs eat pty corespondig to that of af oceanic mixed ayer of constant depth Heat eansport by ocean cures nected in both model oceans. Ths tone ofthe weakness ofl the predictions, dscused in Section 33, “The herzontl resolution ofthe H series rather couse and peas only magia for minal climate prditon. On the other hand thse model {ake Into acount more physical ctor, sch 5 ground heat sorage, seat Teas, and dependence of snow-ce albedo on snow ae, han Jo the model ‘tthe Msetes ‘The models MI, HI, and HE were eum for doubled CO, coneentrations M2 for both doubled and quadrupled concentrations, and M3 or quadrupled oncentations. The temperature changes for doubled CO, In M2 were Spprosiaaty halt of thowe for giadrpled CO, Sei en be expeted that sia result would have been obtained for MB, we ave aed the temperate changes iter Fereumi uted OO; n Wi ate ce ager omenpeste) Characters of General Ciruition Mods Exaied (A Longiode 9 Latitude: 7. Tem TABLE | Models and Their Vality 6 AC Low Latter, the predicted ves of he mean surface 7 or double 60; concentration wee ghtly move tan 15°C the M sere, 25°C in Hi, sd 80°C in HD. Both series predict Inger AT at upper lvl xinay becuse of added heating by cumulus conection, The dsrepancy inthe surface A7-ray well be due to ferences nthe respective parametezations ‘of cumulus conection, ‘The hemispheric mean surface AT is about 3°C in Ml and M2, andthe ‘obal mean about FC in MB, 35°C in HI, and 39°C Ia H2. The °C tfeencehetween MB and MI/M2 hasbeen ascibed pry othe excion ‘of seasonal changes and southem hemippre effects in MI/M2 and thet Inwson in Mn the soutien hemgphiere the area covered by land, and Ibeefore the anomie alto feedback, smalls han the ater hem Sphere, and thee is no albedo feedback over Antartica, The difrences ‘between the M seis andthe H sces may bea least parti stributed 10 ore g j } i er ek cine ‘seo tin eed by & Manabe tod shane at he NOAA GeraFor comparison purposes, the convective adjustment parameterization wat Introduced into an H model wih Ted sexsurlce temperate tnd wat Found to reduce appreciably the penetration of water vapor and cloud to high levels 0. Hansen, NASM Goddard lastiute for Space Stade, persona conn union. Since the orginal penetration ws probably to high beeause fa luck of noncloud air eteiment, we concide tht the sstce ATs de to the upper watersaporcloud fedback may very well hae be env ated inthe Hens, wheres, eeaie of infin penetration hey were Probably underestimated in the M sess. Sines, moreover the soowice boundary sto fr equatorward in Hand o0 fa poleward in Mand M2 (Gee Appenia), we believe tat the sowie albedo feedback hasbeen oer fstimated in the H series and underestimated ia BH and M2. For the above reasons, we take the loa or hempheric sulace warnings to appoxinate 2m upper Bound ithe sexes and lower bound athe MF ste th respect to postive watersaporecloud and snowieatedo feedback ells), Those ate Dest Hnformed guess, but they do ele us to gv rough estimates ofthe potable bounds forthe pobal warming. This we otal 2 5 the lower bound fom the Mere and 35°C a the upper bound from HI, the more realistic of the H ste. AS we hve ot been abe fo find evidence Foran appreciable negative ledback due to change in ow and desu alhedos or othe auses, we allow nly O.°C as an atonal marin for eo ‘on the low side, wheres, because of weertunies in higeloud eects, IC appears to be more reasonabe onthe high side We believe, therefore, tht ‘the egulibum suice global warming de 1 doubled CO wil be inthe range 15°C 10 45°C, with the most probable ve near °C. These entimates Ima be campared with thove gen in orden of feedback eft fn tedpenonal, radisie-convectve model. There the range was 16°C t9 ‘45°C, with 24°C estimated 2.3 Hhely vale, We recl that the snow-ie albedo feedback eter in the nother than Jn the souhers hemisphere hee ofthe pester lind are andthe lack albedo changeover Antarctica. Hence we estnte thatthe warming wil be Semeat greater inthe nortern hemisphere and somewhat lea he oud fem hemisphere “The existing general ciculation models produce taneaveraged ean values of the satus meteorological parameter, sch a wind, temperate, and ‘afl whose climate i reasonably accurate la gol ronal mean. Tei Inacuraies ae revealed much mote in het epoalcimtes, Here physical Shortcomings in the testments of cloud, precipitation, evaporation, ground hydrology, boundaryayer turbulent tansport phenomena, oogrph fects, waveeneyy absorption and selection in he high smoephere, a8 well 2 truncation eff atsing from lack of sulicent resolution combine 10 Produce lage ncurses. Two model may giveth sma ona erage Models and Their Vatisity ” bu, for example, very diferent monsoon cruatons, postions, nd inten "sof the semipermanent center of action and suite dierent ral pat tems es for ths ssn that we donot conser the entng models to beat ll relable i thee prediction of reloal citi shang du to change (C0, concentation. ‘We conclude tt the predictions of CO, indosed climate changes made with the varios models examined ate basicly onsstat snd mutually sup- Poting. The ferences im model resus are rettively sal and may Be counted for by itferencesin model carats and spliing 5 tons. OF couse, we can never be ste that some bly extant or tty oveloked eet may not wate or cnchasons We canals tit we fave not en abl to find such effect 1f the COs cincenieation of the stmospre indeed double and resins 0 long enough forthe atmosphere {nd the imennedate layers of the ocean toattaa approximate thea beam, ou Best estimate that changes lal temperate of the ort fC wil ecu and that thse wll be secompanied by pian change in ‘epona cinati paters(GENERAL CIRCULATION MODELS EXAMINED IN THE STUDY tomo th clinte of ane caton mode I Atmoe S03. us arse Sai Saute (97), Say of lati enpat fCOy ne wh ‘meatal malo bal tnt bit oA sur? Godar tne for Spe Stu (198) Ppa for Rech bl Co bon Diode Sock Beton Cae ert tae fr Space Sta. OTHER REFERENCES ot, ET. Degen, S. Kemp, nd. Kt (1979), The Gabel Garton Cee Coane of Sen Utne Wy. Ne Yr. 81 Fp San tem npr sion eaton due cme /ASON Techn Re Reference 0 ‘diate of ieesing stoi carbon die, Meteora Offer Tea! veces tg tent enn oom ‘aban an ium ent rth Pet Set 28,8-88 ashame 1A Cn, I) Ch ag shoe ade ‘Ste rs Se hg es Sc ce Rr noc satin tie ot the mot on te nt of ee Since enol 2Bibliography fing ad L Mat 979 Nr eG fGen Sma sam eet ae ‘Geophys Stay Cate: (1977), ENe4y and Cat, Nana Acatemy af Se Appendix: Comparison of Snow-Ice Effects in the Models Examined Major iferences between snd within the two sees of model predictions appear inhi lates, For example, in MD, which does thea seasonal ‘hang, the maximom surface aT” about 8°C at approximately 83" N, ‘aheeus nH, which likewise doesnot hive 2 sesonal shane, te mx Surface AT i about 10°C at spovosnaaly 60" N and alo a 70° Sn such editions, the Iatade of anima AT shouldbe wear the acu where fhe maxiauin decrease of albedo occurs and this seems oe the ee for oth M2 and H2- tn hese cases, the tude of maximum AT sould be poleward of the sean snow-ice boundary ofthe control ren wi the present 0; concentration an equstorward ofthe wean suow-ie Boundary i the Iredition wilh the icreated COs concentration, Jadgng frm the albedo ‘hangs, we infer tha the men sows hounds is oo far equatorward in 2 and too fr poleward ia M2 The eason fr these dicepancies& no cleat tecstse so many factors, sich a hereon retin, andes Astin, and anow and ce abedos ae different in the two medelpreictions. Both HI and M3 show lage sesona actuation in AT* Ths wo be expected because the snowvce albedo fvuback dfs considerably from ‘pe sensi to another. The feedback wil ot be relevant i the paar eon fof the winter hemisphere, where there ls no solar eadaton, and over the ‘eins of mslng snow and icin the summer hemisphere, where the suace “Ade ua eed rn STA Ma i le{emperture must be neat fering. The maximus changes ve to the fed tack are to be expected in solar ude in winter and in Plas oy subpolar latitudes in spring when both snow ad seasce change a imper. In Ht, the snow-ice albedo feedback mechanism is sgt een in winter Because the maximum AT ia that prediction i ia subpolr regions Setween 45°N and 70°N. In MB, on the other hand, the soit albedo feedback sms 0 be most sign in spring whea'¢ maximum in AT coscu round 65” N Tn M3 thse is another, een stonger, maximum in winter aes the north pol. This cannot be interpreted 3 the ret of «snow-ie albedo feedback ‘because thee sno slain, It hasbeen suggevied tht itis aves sence hikes feedback: Wha the sea inthe model becomes tient thi, the surface alr becomes strongly coupled by conduction to the xean Immediately below the sex i, whch most be near feng. This es 4 wiming effect and therfore a poste feedback. The warmig i farther fnhanced by the cicunstance at the polar ein this model (or quai rupled COs) is completly meted so thi the polar seas beneath the ce winter wil be warmer. Inthe sescethiknes feedback cannot be clearly seen in winter. Insend, shows a maximum AT net the north plein Spring when the ace i thin encugh and the leads wide enough to permit effective atmospheric communication withthe ocean, In the anal wera, HI shows large AT poleward of out 45° N, wih ft maim of about °C eat 60 N