From 40 billion tonnes CO2 to net zero

Glen Peters (CICERO Center for International Climate Research, Oslo, Norway)
Klimautvalget 2050 (KLD, Oslo, 30 November 2021)
Outline
• Historical emissions: Is the curve bending?

• Pledges & promises: Where will we be in 2030?

• Getting to net zero: Is there a free lunch?

Interlude: A scientific update…
Contributions to observed warming
Warming is driven by emissions from human activities, with GHG warming partly masked by aerosol cooling

Source: IPCC AR6 WG1

CO2 dominates long-term warming
The warming from 1 year of emissions is dominated by CO 2 emissions, and increasingly the longer the time…
Solving the climate problem requires solving the CO 2 problem, but other GHGs can help shave off a few 0.1°C

Source: Aamaas et al (2017)

Paris Agreement versus IPCC (& Glasgow)

PA Article 4:
“achieve a balance between anthropogenic emissions by sources
and removals by sinks of GHGs in the second half of this century”

IPCC WR15, AR6, & Glasgow Climate Pact:

“reducing global CO2 emissions by 45% by 2030 relative to the
2010 level and to net zero around mid-century, as well as deep
reductions in other greenhouse gases”
Is the curve bending?

Emission trends to 2021 and thoughts on 2022…

Global Fossil CO2 Emissions
Global fossil CO2 emissions up 60% since 1990, ~3% since the Paris Agreement in 2015, decade trend is upwards

Estimates for 2020 and 2021 are preliminary.

Source: Global Carbon Budget (2021)
Kaya Identity – decompose changes
CO2 emissions are decomposed into components:
Population * [GDP/Population] * [Energy/GDP] * [CO 2/Energy]

Data: Global Carbon Budget (2021)

Emissions by top emitter
‘Post-COVID’ the US, EU, and India are all back on decade trends, China appears to be back on a growth phase
The rest of the world (~40%) is still well below trend, & a rebound is expected in the next years

Source: Global Carbon Budget (2021)

Emissions by fossil fuel
‘Post-COVID’ gas is back on trend, coal had a significant rebound (many regions) continuing decadal see-saw
Oil use remains supressed. If oil use rebounds, as expected, emissions will rise in 2022 unless coal has a big drop.

Source: Global Carbon Budget (2021)

Energy use by source
Fossil fuels dominate the energy system, but renewable energy is growing exponentially (~15% per year)

This figure shows “primary energy” using the BP substitution method (non-fossil sources are scaled up by an assumed fossil efficiency of 0.38)
Source: BP 2021; Global Carbon Budget (2021)
Sectors (up to 2017)
Electricity dominates fossil CO2 emissions, but growth has slowed. Road dominates the transport sector.
Industry important on aggregative, but made of many smaller industries. Don’t forget “others” & bunkers…

Source: IEA Energy Balances (2019)

Consumption-based emissions
During the 2000s, many rich countries had a divergence in consumption- & territorial emissions, but not since 2010
A lot more work can be done on consumption-based emissions, but we have had limited resources the last 5 years.

Source: Global Carbon Budget (2021)

CO2 emissions from land-use change
There has been a revision in the land-use change datasets, leading to a declining trend in LUC in the last decade
However, there is still considerable uncertainty in LUC emissions.

Source: Global Carbon Budget (2021)

CO2 emissions from land-use change
CO2 emissions from land-use change are extremely uncertain, but there are also fundamental differences in
definition used by UNFCCC (inventories) & IPCC (scientific studies).

Direct effects
(IPCC ARs)

+indirect effects
+managed land
(UNFCCC CRFs)

Source: Global Carbon Budget (2021); Minx et al (2021)

Atmospheric increase & emissions
Total CO2 emissions have been flat in the last decade, with quite some uncertainty related to land-use change
The atmospheric increase has natural variability of around 0.5 parts per million, inhibiting verification

Source: Global Carbon Budget (2021)

Atmospheric increase & emissions
…but there has been a significant change in emission trend in the last decade, compared to the previous.
We should now be able to detect if there has been a change in emission trend using observed concentrations.

Source: Global Carbon Budget (2021)

Where will we be in 2030?

Measured in terms of 2100 temperature outcomes…

Progress in 2030 measured in 2100!
There is a ‘tradition’ to extend 2030 emission estimates into 2100 temperature outcomes, with high precision!
There has been progress – in data and methods – but also some policy!

Source: Carbon Brief (2021)

Uncertainty is much larger (obviously)
Emissions are more sensitive to the choice of integrated assessment model than to the assumed mitigation effort!

Source: Sognnaes et al (2021)

Modelled policy implementation is key
Why do integrated assessment models use so much Carbon Capture and Storage?
One answer is that the results are driven by carbon pricing, not real-world policy mixes

Source: Sognnaes et al (2021)

Net Zero Emissions 2050

Data: IEA WEO 2021

Getting to net zero emissions

Is there a free lunch?

Remaining carbon budgets from 2022
Global warming is proportional to the total cumulative amount of CO 2 emitted, plus an allowance for non-CO2
IPCC AR6 WG1 carbon budgets were updated (from SR15), but similar. IPCC AR6 WG3 will update non-CO2 part.

Source: Global Carbon Budget (2021)

The path to 2050 does matter
If there is insufficient action to 2030, but the world still reaches net zero in 2050, global warming will be much
higher compared to if emissions go directly to zero. Though, there is more nuance in net zero years then reported.

Source: 4C Carbon Outlook (2021)

Net Fossil CO2 emissions
Many scenarios consistent with 1.5°C (with no or low temperature overshoot) reach net-zero emissions ~2050

Data: IEA NZE2050; IAMC 1.5°C Scenario Explorer (hosted by IIASA)

 Net emissions
=
Emissions (e.g., fossil fuels)
+
Removals (e.g., direct air capture)

afforestation not shown here

Carbon Dioxide Removal (BECCS)
Many scenarios depend on Bioenergy with Carbon Capture & Storage (BECCS) for carbon dioxide removal

Data: IEA NZE2050; IAMC 1.5°C Scenario Explorer (hosted by IIASA)

Carbon Dioxide Removal (DACCS)
Very few scenarios currently use DACCS, though the potential is significant & focus is increasing

Data: IEA NZE2050; IAMC 1.5°C Scenario Explorer (hosted by IIASA)

Residual fossil CO2 emissions
Net emissions = (residual) emissions + removals
The use of carbon dioxide removal means that fossil CO 2 emissions do not need to go to zero

Data: IEA NZE2050; IAMC 1.5°C Scenario Explorer (hosted by IIASA)

Oil in 1.5°C scenarios
Scenarios are becoming quite dated, in that mitigation may start before 2020 (particularly for coal).
By selecting the scenarios with the most ‘realistic’ trends, oil drops 20% from 2020 to 2030 and 60% to 2050

Data: IEA NZE2050; IAMC 1.5°C Scenario Explorer (hosted by IIASA)

Can all emissions be eliminated?
Some parts of the energy system are particularly difficult to decarbonize, including aviation, long-distance transport,
steel & cement production, and provision of a reliable electricity supply

Source: Davis et al (2018)

Carbon Dioxide Removal
Because of hard-to-mitigate (or too expensive-to-mitigate) sectors, Carbon Dioxide Removal (CDR) is likely needed
Some removals are needed to balanced with residual emissions, the required scale of CDR is an important discussion

Source: MCC Berlin

Net-zero CO2 versus GHG emissions
Net-zero GHG emissions occur 10-20 years after net-zero CO2 emissions for 1.5°C pathways
Net-zero years are about 20 years later for likely below 2°C.

Positive (residual)

Negative (CDR)

Source: Rogelj et al (2021)

‘Net-zero’ at the country level
• Many countries are pledging for ‘net-zero’ emissions
– US, EU27 have pledged net-zero GHG emissions by 2050
– China has pledged net-zero CO2 emissions by 2060
• Rich countries should reach net-zero before the global
average:
– ~2075: Net-zero GHG emissions
– ~2050: Net-zero CO2 emissions
• Many loopholes in definitions
Is there a free lunch to net zero?
The climate problem is solved when
everyone
stops burning fossil fuels
(& stops cutting down forests)
Glen Peters
glen.peters@cicero.oslo.no

Peters_Glen
cicero.oslo.no
cicerosenterforklimaforskning
Key energy system components
Emissions from existing infrastructure
Existing infrastructure run to its technical end-of-life would lead to about 10GtCO2 in 2050
For 1.5°C, it is necessary to retire infrastructure (or retrofit) before the end of its technical life

Data: IEA NZE2050

Key mitigation measures
Solar and wind, energy efficiency, and electrification are the key drivers early, …
…but need to scale up CCS, behaviour, and hydrogen in the following decades

Data: IEA NZE2050

Behavioural change
Lots of small actions can make a meaningful difference. Most items relate to transport or housing.
Coal
A rapid decline in coal, equally as fast as in the IPCC (though they are shifted a few years earlier).
IEA makes the explicit point that there is no need for new mines or min extensions

Data: IEA NZE2050; IAMC 1.5°C Scenario Explorer (hosted by IIASA)

Electricity generation from coal
If existing assets run out their full (theoretical) lifetime, then 1.5C will be exceeded.
Existing assets will either need retrofits, or be shut before their full lifetime (which is a choice)

Data: IEA NZE2050

Oil
Oil declines a little faster than many IPCC scenarios, though IEA makes the explicit point that this can be met from
existing fields (including new investments in existing fields), but no new fields

Data: IEA NZE2050; IAMC 1.5°C Scenario Explorer (hosted by IIASA)

Gas
Gas is very much in the range of many IPCC scenarios, though with large uncertainties. IEA makes the explicit point
that this can be met from existing fields (including new investments in existing fields), but no new fields

Data: IEA NZE2050; IAMC 1.5°C Scenario Explorer (hosted by IIASA)

Oil and gas investments
Investments in new fields stop (the new investments in 2020-2030 are already committed).
Investments in existing fields continue. Investments in 2015-2020 already lower than 2010-2015.

Data: IEA NZE2050

Carbon Capture & Storage
The IEA requires large-scale CCS through to 2050, though a little less than IPCC.
Building five CCS facilities of size 1MtCO 2 every week from now to 2050 gives 7.5GtCO 2/yr in 2050

Data: IEA NZE2050; IAMC 1.5°C Scenario Explorer (hosted by IIASA)

Carbon Capture & Storage
Most CCS goes to industry and fuel supply (e.g. hydrogen), very little in electricity generation

Data: IEA NZE2050

Carbon Capture & Storage
By fuel type, most CCS is applied to fossil fuels (orange), industrial processes (yellow), and bioenergy (green)
Direct air capture is considered under the CCS umbrella.

Data: IEA NZE2050

Bioenergy
Bioenergy is much lower than in scenarios assessed by the IPCC. Most modern bioenergy is from waste streams.
Traditional biomass declines to zero rapidly, and is replaced by modern bioenergy (so growth in modern bioenergy)

Data: IEA NZE2050; IAMC 1.5°C Scenario Explorer (hosted by IIASA)

Bioenergy
Traditional bioenergy is gone by 2030, with rapid growth in modern biofuels, both solids, liquids, and gasses
More than half is solid bioenergy in electricity and industry, a smaller share for liquid fuels

Data: IEA NZE2050

Bioenergy
Most (modern) bioenergy comes from waste streams, crop-based becomes woody crops with no increase in the use
of cropland, and forestry plantings is on marginal lands

Data: IEA NZE2050

Solar and Wind
The IEA is sees more solar and wind than most scenarios assessed by the IPCC
Overall, a similar amount of electricity from solar and wind in 2050

Data: IEA NZE2050; IAMC 1.5°C Scenario Explorer (hosted by IIASA)

Investments
A doubling of investments in the energy sector, with most growth in electricity generation, networks, & end-use
Investment in fossil fuel production declines over time (and is on existing supply)

Data: IEA NZE2050

Hydrogen
The IEA is relatively high on hydrogen. The hydrogen produced by gas is already included in the declining use of gas
overall. Hydrogen is used also for ammonia and synthetic fuels.

Data: IEA NZE2050; IAMC 1.5°C Scenario Explorer (hosted by IIASA)

Hydrogen
Hydrogen is used in a broad range of sectors, but dominant sources are electricity, transport (long-distance road,
aviation, shipping), and various industries.

Data: IEA NZE2050

Hydrogen
A sizeable share of fossil gas is used to produce hydrogen, though over time electricity dominates
The use of hydrogen is distributed across sectors, but mainly transport and industry (and electricity not shown, ~2%)

Data: IEA NZE2050

All the tools available to get going
Through to 2030, all the necessary technologies are already on the market
After 2030, some technologies are still under development and need more innovation (including in deployment)

Data: IEA NZE2050

Cumulative reductions by technology
About half of the required emission reductions come from solar, wind, and electric cars.
The other ‘hard-to-mitigate’ sectors need more research and development.

Data: IEA NZE2050

More jobs & 0.5% extra GDP growth
Most jobs gains are in the electricity sector, while losses are in fossil fuels
The extra GDP growth is stimulated by investment in the engineering, manufacturing and construction industries

Data: IEA NZE2050

Energy and CO2 prices

Data: IEA NZE2050