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    2022-01-23 US Autos & Industrial Tech

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    alpha123@tutopia

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    Goldman | fqity achs Research 23 January 2022 | 8:00PM EST DCSE MUR) 4021 EPS preview: Supply chain in focus, with auto OEMs likely to have best results We expect supply chain issues to be a key focus this earnings season, especialy as MarkDolaney, CFA we think that the Omicron variant could impact an already difficult sourcing and acne com logistics situation. We believe that supply chain factors will influence company ee ‘comments on both revenue growth and input costs, and we expect that many pinazessre ‘companies in the broader supply chain will guide more conservatively given actual —_—Gaianm Sane Go Lic supply chain pressure as well as uncertaintyfimited visibility Ryan Heeb Galbnm eon cone While we expect 4021 results to be solid 2s auto production improved sequentially reanor Garand {and by more than most suppliers guided to) and vehicle pricing stayed strong, our SNR 1022 EPS estimates are consistently below the Street for auto tier 1s and electronic Sra Sets & C0. LAC ‘components companies given input cost pressures and continued supply chain challenges. We also believe parts of the supply chain like auto tier 1s have excess inventory stemming from inefficiencies that the chip shortage has ereated (e.g incomplete kitting and WIP), and this could impact electronic components sales that often ship to tier 1. We do expect good guidance fram auto OEMs that are benefiting from robust vehicle pricing. Our 2022 EPS estimates are above the Street for Ford and Tesla Although we expect a difficult set of earnings results for most companies in our coverage, as we detailed in our 2022 outlook report we think weaker outlooks could be @ good buying opportunity, especialy if Street estimates are reset, as we believe chip shortages will moderate in 2H and allow for improved auto production (and we believe that auto production will increase again in 2023 with volumes still well below historical levels and final vehicle inventory low). Moreover, we believe several ‘companies in the broader supply ecosystem (e.g. electronic components, EMS, test, select tier 1) can not only participate in a rising production environment but also capitalize on secular growth opportunities including EVs, ADAS/AVs and datacenter. Separately, we adjust price targets for many early stage/pre-revenue companies given the move in market multiples, and our estimates for VRT, GM, and F for recently completed M&A or corporate announcements, Goldman Sachs does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. For Reg AC certification and other important disclosures, see the Disclosure Appendix, ar go to ‘www.gs.com/research/hedge, html. Analysts employed by non-US affiliates are not registered/qualified as research Goldman Sachs US Aus & Induct Tech GS vs. Street estimates We show our estimates compared to FactSet consensus in Exhibit 1. Qur estimates are about in line with consensus for 2022 on average, and we are above consensus for Ford and Tesla. For CY23, our EPS estimates are generally below the Street, Exhibit Summary of GS vs. Steet estimates GS vs FactSet estimates ———————————— eons [hsaeasl] hazze-| 2278 iP iB a ea —- “Sn: Fact Glen Sc Galtier ath We believe that auto suppliers could report better 40 revenue results as production was generally stronger than companies assumed in guidance, although as we detail in the next section we see headwinds in 10 for the auto supply chain (Exhibit 2). Goldman Sachs US Aus & Induct Tech Exhibit2: Latest IHS estimates indicate 2021 production volumes were ge ‘Auto suppliers ight vohicla production outlook vs. IMS ETT outlook vs. 1HS Company Cy21 guidance (YoY) IHS forecast (YoY:as of 1/17/22) Guidance vs. IHS ‘Aptiv Giobal Flat YoY m% 2%) BorgWarner ‘North America 3.5% to fat Yor 0% 2%) Europe “3% 0-64 YoY 6%) o% hina “1.5% 10-35% YOY 4% om) Weighted BWA exposure 2% fat Yor om 0%) Gentex ‘North America Fiat Yor 0% intine Europe 3% YOY 5%) 2% Japan and Korea 4% Yor %) 0%) China 41% Yor 4% 6%) Weighted GNTX exposure 2% YOY (0%) 2%) ‘ear North America Flat Yor 0% inline Europe and Arica 2% Yor (ee) 2% China “1% YoY 4% em Giobal Flat Yor 2% 2%) Magna North America +3% Yor 0% % Europe Flat Yor (5%) % China -1'0-2% Yor 4% om NA, Europe & China total Fiat Yor 0% intine Visteon Giobal 40 production similar to 30 123% QoQ in 4021 (23%) aoa Sensata North America 5% Yor 0% om) Europe THYOY 6%) 2%) hina 2% Yor % (6%) Weighted ST exposure 3% YOY o%. o%), Sw: Campy a, HS Recent demand indicators have been softer, although still at a high level for industrial and datacenter We show recent demand trends in key end markets in this section. We believe that end demand is generally solid although has softened in some areas. Auto & Industrial Retail auto sales in 4021 were down yoy in the USA, Europe and in China (Exhibit 3 & Exhibit 4), which we believe is due primarily to low final vehicle supply, although we think it will be important to monitor if high prices are also having an impact on sell through. Final vehicle inventory levels are low, as we detailed in our 2022 outlook Goldman Sachs US Aus & Induct Tech Exhibit3: Low vehicle inventory has weighed on monthly auto unit Exhibit Global auto sales were up on weak comps in 1H21 (due to sales globally 2020 COVID lockdown} bu were generally down YoY in2H24 Ugh vehi sles undue mn) YoY change nmonty eu sales aad) 1" o Ew mm his i= if. Se ib~ iy i bos i : Ho ie FP EP EPPA PREPS REP OEP I EDPEA amber ee However, inventory levels at auto tier 1s as of 3021 were high (Exhibit 5 & Exhibit 6), which we think could impact the supply chain, as we wrote in our note on 11/17/21 Exhibit: Auto Tir 1 inventory dollars continued to increase in30. Exhibit: Auto tier 1 DOL are well above normal levels. 20000 ator nventoy rm) 7 tot #08 £ fa 7 ‘000 io E 10000 ie V Us 000 is ° Serre eeerrs a Mouoosseeeerreeecggag 23285283895529298 SESRERERSSERERESSIIE Ses: Cony tn Sy ale sh Sar ony ao Sh stn sh We believe the supply chain is also impacting heavy vehicles, with NA Class 8 truck orders down (Exhibit 7 Goldman Sachs US Aus & Induct Tech Exhibit 7: North America Class 8 tuck orders and the DAT Truck spot market rate have recently maderated North America Cass 8 truck orders yoy growth vs. DAT Tuck spot merket Finehau rate (Sper mile exuel) SP Pye OOS S888 8 8 8 FP PFE LEI E LEE OLE IH Sou 04, AC Rech Industrial demand has remained at a high overall level per the ISM index, but has moderated from the peak (Exhibit 8) Exhibit &: The US ISM PMI remains in expansionary toritory USISM PM Sou Fat We do believe that chip supply will improve in 2H22 {although we still expect a tight S/D situation overall), with shipments of IC units growing strongly (Exhibit 9} per the SIA, ‘and capex is increasing per the GS semi team (albeit this is partly due to rising capital intensity, and there is @ lag between investments and output; Exhibit 10) Goldman Sachs US Aus & Induct Tech Exhibit IC unit shipments are above trend as of November IC units ox Memory 3m avg (units ia mn} 5000 25000 1,000 to Memory 339 SM OPE LS LOLS LLL LLL LS SEES SSS ESSE RFF i er me 2022 and 2028 Exhibit 10: We expect semi capex to increase ag Foundry and Logie Capex {$ ma} 120000 100000 Fundy an Loic Cape $m) NBAaG 828 8 TEL FESS LSS LL PGK Shaan Gn nee er While new semiconductor investments can have a lag, as supply grows we think this will allow for auto production to improve from a low 2021 base (Exhibit 11). We believe that auto production will be up for multiple years. Goldman Sachs US Aus & Induct Tech Exhibit 11; We estimate CY22-25 production of 85/80/9798 ma Global auto production 7 i: i i. He “ll | | " SuggeREBEee3 un Sue MS, Gatran Sch Get! ann sch Datacenter Datacenter demand remains strong, in our view. Taiwanese chip company ASPEED (not covered) has sizable datacenter exposure and reported continued solid monthiy trends. Specifically, ASPEED reported 14 consecutive months of yoy revenue growth from November 2020-December 2021 (Exhibit 12) Exhibit 12: ASPEED monthly venue has rebounded AASPEED monthiy yoy revenue growth C i Bow | i ill | a AT i= iT PEPER SERSTPEUEREES Bg) Sous Conan ta In addition, a bottom-up aggregation of GS analyst capex estimates for leading cloud players implies an 18% CAGR from 2020-2023 (Exhibit 13) Goldman Sachs US Aus & Induct Tech Exhibit 13: We expect cloud capex to grow 28%/20%/6% yoy in cven/22/23 Total cloud capex smn) sil \ e E Suse Conan Sa, Gtinan Sie Gis neste as Valuation and performance Yearto-date (since 12/31/21), stocks in our coverage are down 14% at the median (vs. the S&P 500 down 8%), albeit with some dispersion (e.g., F -1%, BWA -3%, INVZ. ~45%, AUR -52%; Exhibit 14. As we highlighted in our Qutlook, we believe rising interest rates are negatively impacting the early-stage, long-duration assets in our coverage. Exhibit 14 Stocks in ou ‘the S&P 500 down 8%) re down 14% atthe median (vs. ~~ aap esa gDeapeusEggESUODREEEE Coa cr Following 3021 earnings season, stocks have traded down 12% at the median (vs. the ‘S&P 500 down 5%; Exhibit 15). Consensus CY22 P/E multiples have contracted by about 6% at the median with CY22 consensus EPS estimates about flat for our coverage (Exhibit 16) Goldman Sachs US Aus & Induct Tech Exhibit 15: Stocks in our coverage are down 12% atthe median vs. Exhibit 16:CY22 multiples have contracted slightly atthe median the S&P 500 down 5% since 3021 EPS reports 103021 results Stock performance since 3021 results ‘Change in consensus C¥22 P/E muliple post 30 resus ~ : . i 0 : ATTY A = “A peHMESREDSIERD RE“) Saree SOOEGSEMEESEORERRESE We believe that valuation is full on CY22 estimates as multiples are generally near or above the high end of historical ranges especially for growth and GARP factor stocks (Exhibit 17; historical ranges are CY17-CY19 PINTM EPS except TSLA with the historical range using CY17-CY19 EVINTM sales) Exhibit 17: Companies in our coverage are mostly trading near the high-end of NTM ranges Sureet 2022 PIE vs. NTM PIE average; TSLA based on EVINTM sales; Historical ranges are based on CYI7-C¥18 se eERRERS Aan iniil OSES IF EEL E SO IIES Seve aie Estimate changes and ratings summary Vertiv completed its acquisition of E&l Engineering (a provider of switchgear, busway, and modular power solutions; see our 9/9/21 note for details) in November 2021. We maintain our CY21 EPS estimate of $1.00 and raise our 22/23 EPS estimates to $1.25/81.55 from $1:30/81.40 prior. We maintain our Buy rating on VRT shares, and our ‘12-month price target of $30 is unchanged, based on a 18X multiple applied to our EV to 05-08 EBITDA We also adjust our estimates for Ford and GM to account for recent corporate Goldman Sachs US Aus & Induct Tech ‘announcements. Ford disclosed certain special items on 1/18/22, including the reclassification of its 121 Rivian gain (~$900 mn) as a special item, and we lower our CY21 EPS estimate to $1.78 from $195. We maintain our CY22/23 EPS estimates of $$2,20/$2.10. We maintain our Neutral rating on F shares, and our 12-month price target of $22 is unchanged, based on 11X applied to our normalized EPS estimate of $2.00. GM commented at an industry conference in December 2021 that CY21 EBIT is tracking to the $14 bn range (vs. prior guidance of $11.5 bn to $13.5 bn). We raise our CY21 EPS estimate to $6.97 from $6.70, and we maintain our CY22/23 EPS estimates of $6.75/85.95. We maintain our Buy rating on GM shares, our 12-month price target of $72 is unchanged, based on 11X our normalized EPS estimate of $6.50 (unchanged). In addition, we lower price targets for early stage/pre-revenue de-SPAC stocks in our coverage on lower market multiples (Exhibit 18). As we discussed in our.2022 outloot we believe rising interest rates are negatively impacting the early-stage, long-duration assets in our coverage. We believe that stocks that may need additional capital will be most negatively impacted by rising rates, and we believe that the companies that can demonstrate product/technology leadership will be most ikely to outperform (especially if there is a potential catalyst Exhibit 18: We lower pric targets for early stage/pre-revenue de-SPAC stacks in our coverage on lower Boar AUR 3 oe ‘iz mes Her S19 x % 9x 2 x & FSR $9 125K 125K 18K sit 1K Hyun s om om x eorex ive s 20K 25K 50K 30 xe | RIDE: s250 075K OTK aK S30 O7sK x os. $20 2x ax x 3 aE ox vir sin KKK $5 25x 28x. view $3 ix 1K 125K sé 2x 125K wuTa a x x x 39 SX 88K Sou Glen Se Gillian seth In Exhibit 19, we show price targets and key upside/downside risks for our coverage. Goldman Sachs US Aus & Induct Tech Sr: Gran Schl ene Ressach WaRNE Eaeae paces Goldman Sachs US Aus & Induct Tech Disclosure Appendix Reg AC ‘We, Mark Dalaney, CFA, Bruno Dossera Ryan Heeb and Eleanor Garland, hereby crit that allo the views expressed in his report accurtolyrflct ‘ur personal ews about the subject company of companies ands o har secures We algo cer Phat no par of au camnpensston was, so il be, azecty or ndecty related tothe spac recommendations or views expressed inthis reper Unies otherwise stated, the individuals listed on the cover page ofthis report ate ansyst in Godman Sache! Global investment Research division GS Factor Profile ‘The Goldman Sachs Factor Profile provides investment context fora stock by comparing key atbutes to the mart (our coverage universe and its sector pours, The four key atibutes dopeted ae: Growth, Financ Return, Multpe leg, valuation] and Integrated la composite of Growth Finan Returns and utile. Growth, Franca etums and Multiple ae calculated by using normalized rake for specie mets foreach stork The normaizedanks fr the mets are then averaged ad converted nto percents forthe reivant atau, The preiesealulstion of each metric may ‘ary depending onthe fiscal year, industry and region, but he standard spproach i 3 folows Growth s based ona stock's forwardlooking sales growth, EBITDA growth and EPS growth or franca stocks, only EPS and sales growth), witha highes percent inseating a higher orowah company. Finanal Retume is bosod ona stock’ forwordooking ROE, ROCE and CROC! Vo ancl stock, only AOB, with higher percentile iaicatng acompary with higher fnancal etuns. Multiple is based ona stock's forvataiookng IE. PB, Dicaldwdond (PD), EVIESITOA, EVIFCF and EV/Debt Adjusted Cash Flow [DACA fr financial stots only PI, P/B and PD), with ahiher percentio Idesting 8 stock vacing st higher mulipe. The Integrated percentiles calulated as the average ofthe Growth percetle, Financia Returns porcartie and (100% - Multiple percent Financial Returns and Multiple use the Goidman Sachs analyst forecasts at the fiscal yearend at last thoe quarters inthe future, Growth uses inputs forthe fiscal yar at least seven quarersin the flue compared wih the year at east twee quarors the future on a pershare bass fra maths). Fora more detaiod description of haw we calculste the GS Factor Profle please contact your GS representative M&A Rank ‘Aeross our global caverage, wo examine stocks using an MA framework, considering both qualitative factors ane quantitative factors (which may vary ‘0r088soctors and regions) to mecrporate the potential that certain companies cout be acqared We then sign 8 MBA onk as a means of sting ‘companies under ou rated coverage ffom 1 Yo, th 1 fepresening high [30-50%] probably of te company becoming an acquis target, 2 fepresentig medium (15%-20%) probably and 3 representing ow (09-15%) probably. For companies ranked 1 2, nine with ow stancare departmental guidelines we inorporete an MA component nto or target pice. M&A rank of 3 considered immatefal snd therefore doesnot {acter ino our price target, and may or may pct be cscussed in research Quantum ‘Quantum is Goldman Sachs proprietary database providing secess to dete financial statement histores, forecasts and ais, It canbe use for indepth anasis oa single company, to make comparsons between compariesn deren sectors and markets. Disclosures ‘The rating(s) for Amphenol Corp. Aptiv Ple, Aurora Innovation Inc, Belden ine. BorgWamer Inc, Carence inc. ChargePoint Holdings, Fisker Inc. Flex, Ford Motor Co, Ganersi Motors Co, Gentex Corp. Hylion Holdings, Imovie Technologies, Jbi Creu ine, Keysigh Technologios Ine, Leer Corp. Lordstown Motors Comp. Magna interaational Ine, National Instruments Com, QusntumSeape Corp. Rivian Automotive Ine, ‘Sonsata Technologies Holding, TE Connectivity Ltd, Tesla Inc, Velodyne Lidar Ine, Vertv Holdings, View Ine. Visteon Corp. and Volta Ine. {stare relative to tho other companies in t/their coverage universe: Argh! Corp Aptv Pe, aurora mnowon Ie, Bowen Ie, Boner Ine Cerenoe Ine, ChargePoint Holangs, Fisker Inc, Flex, Fard Mator Co, General Motos Co, Gentex Corp, Hylion Hodings, InnovzTeesnalgies, {abil Greut ne, Keysignt Technologies Inc. Ler Corp, Lordstown Motos Corp. Magna Intrratnal ne, NatonalInttumens Corp. Quantumscape “Cor, ian Aerie Ine, SenaataTecrnologies Holding, Te Connectivity Ltd, Tesla Ine, elogyne Ud Inc, Ver Holings, View ine, Visteon Corp Vora Ine Company-specific regulatory disclosures Comper por lees aoe Gscosifes at iiszfuwacs comfesonchhedoe hn. iacoauesapplabe tothe companies ince in tis ompendum coh be fund the atest elvan PuOHEed errr Distribution of ratings/investment banking relationships {Goldman Sachs InvestrentRaseatch global Equity coverage universe ating Distribution Investment Banking Relationships Bay ola Sr By Fala Ser tel Oe Be Te Se we 7% ‘As of January 1, 2022. Gldman Sachs Global Investment Rascarch had investment ratings on 3,096 equity secur. Goléman Sachs assigns stocks 25 Buys and Seis on various regional investment List; stocks not so assigned are doomed Neutral. Such assignments equate to Buy, Hold an Sel fr ‘the purposes af the above asclosure requredby the FINRA Rules. See Ratings, Coverege universe and relsed detntions below. The Investment Banking Relstonships chat reflects tho percontage of subject companies withn each rating catogry for whom Geldman Sachs has provided lnvestment banking services witha the prewous tweve months. Price target and rating history chart(s) {Compendium report: please see closures ot iif. com/esearhnedae imi. Disclosures apliable tothe companies included in this compan cst be found in theses relevant published essen Goldman Sachs US Aus & Induct Tech Regulatory disclosures Disclosures required by United States laws and regulations See companyspectc regulatory disclosures above for ary ofthe falling disclosures required as to companies eftred tin this report: manager or manager na ponding varsaction 1% or other onersh; compansation fr certan selves, typos ol cient rlgbonshps, maragedeo managed publ fein n pir periods; drectoshps or equly secures, market making snr specalst ole Golan Sachs trades of may trade 698 Dincpal im deb secures lors related dervatves) of isuers iscussed In his report Te folowing oe adtional requied dsclosures: Ownership and mateil conflicts of intrest: oldman Sach policy aroha is arava, professionals reparting to analysts and members of ther Pousehoks from owrung secures of any company in he ana aoe of overeoe. 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Additional disclosures required under the laws and regulations of jurisdictions other than the United States ‘The following disclosures are those requied by the jurisdiction inceated, except tothe extent re8dy made above pursuant fo United Sates laws and regulations. Australia: Goldan Sadie Ausvala Ply Lid and ts afilates are not authorised depostaking insttutons(s that torm fs dtd nthe Banking et 1959 (th) in tka and do nat prow barking svies, nor erty on a barking business, n Austara Tris researdh, ond any accoss to iis itended onl for “wholesale clonts" within the rearing ofthe Austin Corporations Act, unless otherwise agreed by Goldman Sachs In ‘rodcing research reports, member of tho Global Inestmant Reseach Divion of Goldman Sachs Ausra may atfond ste wats and other ‘meetings hosted bythe compares and other enies which ae the subject ofits research reports. In some instances the costs of such site wists oF ‘aetings may be met n part arin whol fy te iesuers concerned f Godman Sache Austais conser te appropriate and reasooabe nthe specific {Greumstences relating to tho sito vist of meeting, To tho extent tat the cantons of this document contains any nani product aevce, t's genera {vice ony and has been prepared by Goldman Sechs without talang ito account a sents cbjectve,fnencal Stustion ar needs. A clint shoul, ‘fore acting onary suth ace, consider the sppreprtaness of the advice having regard tothe cant’ ovin objectives, fnancal situation and needs, ‘copy of cortain Goldman Sachs Austiaia and Nov. Zealand asciosure of intecests and copy of Goldman Seah Austaian Sel-Sie Research Independence Policy Statement ore avaiable a: Nipsiwww-geldmansechs comscosures/ausala new 2elandindee hl. 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