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Week : May 23rd to 27th’ 2011

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 Week : May 23rd to 27th’ 2011 Week : May 23rd to 27th’ 2011

JEERA( J U N E ) GUARSEED( M AY )

Weekly Chart

Weekly Chart
Expert JEERA SETTLES HIGHER ON WEAK ARRIVALS Expert GUARSEED TRADES UP ON WEAK ARRIVALS
Opinion Opinion

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW

The Jeera futures traded on slightly positive note on short covering on previous session's losses. Decline in arrivals at spot market supported the recovery in
prices. However, Overall trend remained choppy amid poor export demand from overseas. Therefore, futures ended at positive note with limited gains. The
Jeera futures are forecast to continue the recovery on short covering at lower levels next week. Decline in arrivals may support the prices. Fresh buying in far
month contract might also add to the upside. However, overall trend is likely to remain sluggish on poor export demand for the produce at spot market. Arrivals
at spot market of Unjha were reported around 12000 bags (Each bag= 55Kg.). As per trade sources, fresh supply from Syria and Turkey is likely to hit the market
June onwards which might keep the prices under pressure. According to traders, decline in production is estimated around 10% only against the earlier
expectations of 25-30% decline. This year production is estimated around 23-25 lakh bags against 28-30 lakh bags last year. According to derivative analysis,
prices have improved while open interest and volumes have declined. This indicates traders are going long but exiting their positions before end of the day.
Prices might trade volatile but often it signals a near term bearishness in market.
Guar seed continued to add to the gains of the previous week and settled higher. Decline in the arrivals amidst better offtakes by the local stockists is supporting
prices to remain firm. A record export during the FY 2010-11 is the only factor that is supporting the bullish trend in Guar seed in the current crozp season (Oct-
Sep 2010-11). According to the Rajasthan farm Department, Guar seed output in Rajasthan in the current season is estimated at 14.9 lakh tonnes. The
forecasted Indian output this year is much higher than the 4.5 lakh tonnes of 2009-10 and 9.5-10 lakh bags in 2008-09. India is the largest Guar producing
country in the world contributing 80% in total supplies followed by Pakistan with 10% share in world production. Exports which were hit drastically lower during
the last 2 years, had reached record levels in the financial year ending March 2011. According to Agriculture and Processed Food Products Export
Development Authority, Indian Guar gum exports for the period April- December 2010 surged by 82% and stood at 2,79,197 tonnes as compared to 153404
tonnes during the same period last year. Exports would continue to remain firm owing to an increase in demand from the oil sector with the rise in crude oil prices
and lower supplies from the second largest Guar producing country, i.e. Pakistan because of floods. Exports which were hit drastically lower during the last 2
years, had reached record levels in the financial year ending March 2011. Exports would continue to remain firm owing to an increase in demand from the oil
sector with the rise in crude oil prices and lower supplies from the second largest Guar producing country, i.e. Pakistan because of floods.

REASONS FOR MOVEMENT MARKET OVERVIEW STRATEGY REASONS FOR MOVEMENT MARKET OVERVIEW STRATEGY
Ÿ Weak arrivals Last week Jeera recovered a bit after a Jeera is in a consolidation phase and one Ÿ Weak arrivals Guarseed continued its upper trend last week For next week in Guar seed traders
Ÿ Short covering continous downtrend, and we saw good buying should use the strategy of sell on higher Ÿ Firm export demand but is facing stiff resistance at 3310 level. Prices should go for buying at lower levels
coming at lower levels. Jeera has good support levels. If in the coming week Jeera were in a tight range and were neither sutaining strategy, if Guar seed sustains above the
at 14850 and price was not able to sustain below sustains below the level of 15000 then we at higher levels not at lower. For the next week level of 3350 we can see the level of
WEEKLY PIVOTS it. For the next week Jeera has resistance can expect the level of 14750, and if it WEEKLY PIVOTS Guarseed has resistance at 3350 and support at 3400, and below 3190 it can touch the
Script at15850 and support at 15000. sustains above 15850 then we can see Script 3190. level of 3140.
Levels Levels
the level of 16150.
R3 16450 R3 3562
R2 15850 R2 3419
R1 15600 R1 3364
PP 15250 PP 3276
S1 15000 S1 3221
S2 14640 S2 3133
S3 14040 S3 2990

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 Week : May 23rd to 27th’ 2011 Week : May 23rd to 27th’ 2011

SOYABEAN( M AY ) CHANA( J U N E )

Weekly Chart

Weekly Chart
Expert SOYBEAN RISES ON GLOBAL CUES Expert CHANA TRADES UP ON FRESH DOMESTIC DEMAND
Opinion Opinion

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW

NCDEX June Soy Bean futures traded higher due to firm overseas market as delayed US Soybean plantations due to surging Mississippi river is flooding Declining arrivals coupled with emergence of fresh demand at lower levels led Chana prices to settle positively last week. However, Chana futures settled
farmland. Us Soybean plantings reached just 22% complete as of May 15, 2011, compared to 7% last week and 37% last year. Ohio is just 3% planted versus 0.96% lower owing to profit booking by the market participants. Also, reports of delay in sowing of Chickpeas in Saskatchewan (Canada) supported the positive
44% last year, and Indiana 6% planted vs. 44%. Lower existing carry over stock of domestic Soybean and declining arrival in major mandis due to off season. market sentiments prevailing in the domestic markets. According to the report released by the government of New South Wales (Australia) acreage under
The NOPA monthly crush report showed April Soybeans crushed at 121.33 million bushels which was well below trade expectations. This was down from 134.4 chickpeas during 2011-12 is forecasted to be lower. Production of Chana as well as Pulses in the current crop year is estimated higher at 7.38 million tonnes
million in March and 131.7 million bushels last year. With the lower crush, Soybean oil stocks came in at just 2.694 billion pounds which was down from 3.059 and 1729 million tonnes respectively. Planning Commission has estimated that the demand for pulses in the country during the period 2011-12 is 19.11 million
billion last month and 2.811 billion last year. The tighter than expected oil stocks and firm palm prices overnight supported the solid gains for Soybean oil. tonne. The food ministry has been subsiding pulses and edible oil distribution under the public distribution system PDS by states to the extent of Rs 10 a kg and
USDA's Weekly export inspections came in at just 5.149 million bushels as compared with trade expectations near 7-11 million bushels and 11.2 million Rs 15 a litre, respectively. The difference between the market price and the price of PDS is compensated to states through these subsidy schemes. Forecasts
bushels necessary each week to reach the USDA export projection for the season. USDA's weekly export sales released on May 12, 2011, which shows that of lower acreage in Australia may result in lower output of Chickpeas in Australia. This may push up global Chickpea prices in the coming months. Chana prices
the weekly export sales for Soybeans was just 59,000 metric tonnes for the current marketing year and 3,300 metric tonnes for the next marketing year and total in the intraday may trade firm owing to improved buying at lower levels in the domestic market amidst dwindling supplies. Also, seasonality pattern reveals that
was 62,300 which was below trade expectations. Oilseed complex are expected to trade slightly higher on account of firm overseas market as delayed US Chana prices normally bottom out during mid May when arrivals reach their peak, and gradually starts rising when arrivals decline. Thus, following a
Soybean plantations and improved demand of palm oil from India and Middle East. Lower existing carry-over stock of domestic Soybean and declining arrivals seasonality pattern, any significant decline in the prices may be treated as a good buying opportunity expecting prices to recover by Rs. 300-350 per qtl by June
due to off season are also in favour of bulls. end.
REASONS FOR MOVEMENT MARKET OVERVIEW STRATEGY REASONS FOR MOVEMENT MARKET OVERVIEW STRATEGY
Ÿ Firm global market Last week in Soybean prices were initially Soybean is moving in a consolidation Ÿ Good domestic demand Last week Chana did our target of 2510 above Overall trend of Chana is consolidated
Ÿ Good demand bullish but in the last two days of the week we phase on charts and one should look for Ÿ Lower level buying the level of 2475 and even closed above it. and one should go for buying at lower
saw good profit booking and it erased all the buying opportunities at lower levels, if Chana has continued its profit booking last levels strategy in it. For the coming week
previous gains. For the next week Soybean has Soybean sustains above the level of week and we saw good buying coming at lower if Chana sustains above 2545 level we
WEEKLY PIVOTS resistance at 2430 and support at 2340. 2430 we can see the level of 2470, and on WEEKLY PIVOTS levels. For the next week Chana has resistance can see it at 2575 and below 2445 we can
Script the downside if it sustains below the level Script at 2545 and support at 2445. expect the level of 2415.
Levels Levels
of 2340 we can see Soybean at 2310
R3 2500 level. R3 2672
R2 2450 R2 2586
R1 2418 R1 2556
PP 2399 PP 2500
S1 2368 S1 2470
S2 2348 S2 2414
S3 2298 S3 2328

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 Week : May 23rd to 27th’ 2011 Week : May 23rd to 27th’ 2011

Weekly Market Update

Agri Watch
Weekly
Symbol Exchange Expiry Commodity Previous Open High Qty. Open TurnOver *
Price Unit Low Close Net
Date Name Close Traded Interest (Rs. in Lakhs)

JEERAUNJHA NCDEX 20-JUN-11 Jeera RS/QUINTAL 14913 14920 15488 14885 15363 39345 450 16968 54,254.25

PPRMLGKOC NCDEX 20-JUN-11 Pepper RS/QUINTAL 30229 30210 30770 29512 30600 41194 371 15321 106,922.40

TMCFGRNZM NCDEX 20-JUN-11 Turmeric RS/QUINTAL 8488 8426 8450 7950 8250 21070 -238 8715 15,362.87

GARSEDJDR NCDEX 20-JUN-11 Guarseed RS/QUINTAL 3283 3284 3332 3189 3309 1001280 26 198520 296,461.16

GARGUMJDR NCDEX 20-JUN-11 Guargum RS/QUINTAL 10103 10165 10538 9929 10385 129230 282 16000 123,973.70

CHARJDDEL NCDEX 20-JUN-11 Chana RS/QUINTAL 2454 2455 2531 2445 2526 712970 72 182940 156,498.08

SYBEANIDR NCDEX 20-JUN-11 Soybean RS/QUINTAL 2387.5 2390 2430 2379.5 2388 225510 0.5 168280 48,257.26

SYOREFIDR NCDEX 20-JUN-11 Soy Oil Refined RS/10KGS 632.25 633.9 646.5 632.2 640 524510 7.75 132180 306,276.02

RMSEEDJPR NCDEX 20-JUN-11 Rape Mustard Seed RS/20KGS 2810 2813 2857 2805 2826 497550 16 210850 119,839.55

COCUDAKL NCDEX 20-JUN-11 Cotton Seed Oil Cake RS/QUINTAL 1170 1169 1190 1151 1160 290590 -10 83610 29,496.54

GURCHMUZR NCDEX 20-JUL- 11 Gur RS/40KGS 996.5 1037 1033 1034 985 1012 -25 12060 6,458.86

POTATO NCDEX 20-JUN-11 Potato RS/QUINTAL 418.3 421.9 430 386.6 419.1 57240 0.8 28770 1,551.11

KAPASSRNR NCDEX 30-APR-12 Kapas RS./20KG 794.8 787 815 777 801.5 731 6.7 376 967.93

WHTSMQDELI NCDEX 20-JUN-11 Wheat RS/QUINTAL 1230.6 1233.8 1238.2 1218 1219 21370 -11.6 22710 2,345.60

MENTHA OIL MCX 31-MAY-11 Mentha oil RS/KG 923.2 919 995 917 944.1 3160 20.9 338 10771.45

CARDAMOM MCX 15- JUN-11 Cardamom RS/KG 932.5 940.5 960 870 872.3 5015 -60.2 1598 4317.25

* Turnover Till Friday

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 Week : May 23rd to 27th’ 2011 Week : May 23rd to 27th’ 2011

Weekly Market Update

Agri Watch
Weekly Pivots
Exchange Commodity Closing Price % Change Scripts R3 R2 R1 PP S1 S2 S3

NCDEX JEERA 15363 3.02 JEERA (JUNE) 16451.33 15848.33 15605.67 15245.33 15002.67 14642.33 14039.33

NCDEX PEPPER 30600 1.23 PEPPER (JUNE) 32810.00 31552.00 31076.00 30294.00 29818.00 29036.00 27778.00

NCDEX TURMERIC 8250 -2.80 TURMERIC (JUNE) 9216.67 8716.67 8483.33 8216.67 7983.33 7716.67 7216.67

NCDEX GUARSEED 3309 0.79 GUARSEED (JUNE) 3562.67 3419.67 3364.33 3276.67 3221.33 3133.67 2990.67

NCDEX GUARGUM 10385 2.79 GUARSGUM (JUNE) 11502.00 10893.00 10639.00 10284.00 10030.00 9675.00 9066.00

NCDEX CHANA 2526 2.93 CHANA (JUNE) 2672.67 2586.67 2556.33 2500.67 2470.33 2414.67 2328.67

NCDEX SOYBEAN 2388 0.02 SOYBEAN (JUNE) 2500.17 2449.67 2418.83 2399.17 2368.33 2348.67 2298.17

NCDEX SOY OIL REFINED 640 1.23 REFINED SOYA OIL (JUNE) 668.17 653.87 646.93 639.57 632.63 625.27 610.97

NCDEX RAPE MUSTARD SEED 2826 0.57 MUSTARD (JUNE) 2933.33 2881.33 2853.67 2829.33 2801.67 2777.33 2725.33

NCDEX COTTONSEED OIL CAKE 1160 -0.85 COTTONSEED OIL CAKE (JUNE)
1245.00 1206.00 1183.00 1167.00 1144.00 1128.00 1089.00

NCDEX GUR 1012 -2.41 GUR (JUL) 1108.33 1059.33 1035.67 1010.33 986.67 961.33 912.33

NCDEX POTATO 419.1 0.19 POTATO (JUNE) 498.70 455.30 437.20 411.90 393.80 368.50 325.10

NCDEX KAPAS 801.5 0.84 KAPAS (APR 2012) 873.83 835.83 818.67 797.83 780.67 759.83 721.83

NCDEX WHEAT 1219 -0.94 MENTHA OIL (MAY) 1108.03 1030.03 987.07 952.03 909.07 874.03 796.03

NCDEX MENTHA OIL 944.1 2.26 CARDAMOM (JUNE) 1080.77 990.77 931.53 900.77 841.53 810.77 720.77

NCDEX CARDAMOM 872.3 -6.46

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Weekly Gainers Weekly Losers Investment in Commodity has its own risks. Sincere efforts have been made to present the right investment perspective. The information contained herein is based on
analysis and up on sources that we consider reliable. We, however, do not vouch for the accuracy or the completeness thereof. This material is for personal information
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Commodity Expiry Closing Commodity Expiry Closing
recommendations above.
Date Price Change Date Price Change
The stock price projections shown are not necessarily indicative of future price performance. The information herein, together with all estimates and forecasts, can change
without notice.
20-JUN-11 20-JUN-11 15363 3.02 CARDAMOM 15- JUN-11 872.3 -6.46
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CHANA 20-JUN-11 2526 2.93 TURMERIC 20-JUN-11 8250 -2.80 Analyst or any person related to CapitalVia might be holding positions in the stocks recommended.

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GUARGUM 20-JUN-11 10385 2.79 GUR 20-JUL- 11 1012 -2.41 its owners or anyone can be held responsible for.

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