SPECIAL ISSUE PAPER 643

Scenarios for examination of highly distributed

power systems
C N Jardine1∗ and G W Ault2
1
Environmental Change Institute, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK
2
Department of Electronic and Electrical Engineering, Institute for Energy and Environment, The University of
Strathclyde, Glasgow, UK

The manuscript was received on 23 August 2007 and was accepted after revision for publication on 17 March 2008.
DOI: 10.1243/09576509JPE517

Abstract: A set of three scenarios has been created in order to examine the incorporation of
extensive penetrations of micro-generators into electricity networks (termed ‘highly distributed
power systems’). The scenarios have been created as a synthesis of the Future Network Technolo-
gies scenarios and the UK domestic carbon model, and yields energy use and carbon dioxide
emissions of the UK housing stock from inputs of household numbers, house type, thermal
efficiency, appliance efficiency, as well as the number and efficiency of micro-generators used.
The centralized supply mix also varies between scenarios and features extensive penetrations of
large-scale renewables.
The scenarios illustrate the scale of change required to reduce CO2 emissions by 60 per cent by
2050, which has substantial impacts for electricity network operation. Moving from a centralized
system to the one where one-third of electricity comes from distributed sources poses significant
challenges including: reverse power flow on networks, load balancing, storage requirements,
phase unbalance, harmonics, and ancillary services.

Keywords: micro-generation, electricity networks, scenarios, low carbon

1 INTRODUCTION possible futures, the need to make a single long-term

Micro-generation is seen as a key means of reducing
carbon dioxide emissions and utilizing energy more
efficiently [1]. As such, the use of many distributed
low or zero carbon generators offers an attractive
means of achieving national energy policy goals.
However, the integration of many small-scale gener-
ators into electricity networks, and coordinating their
operation, remains a key technical challenge before
micro-generation can form a major share of the UK
electricity generation mix. The SUPERGEN consor-
tium on highly distributed power systems (HDPS) is
currently researching this issue.
It is useful to examine the scenarios describing a
range of contrasting futures to allow sensitivity to key
parameters to be determined. By examining a range of
∗ Corresponding author: Environmental Change Institute, Univer-
sity of Oxford, Dyson, Perrrins, Building, South Parks Road, Oxford
OX1 3QY, UK. email: christian.jardine@eci.ox.ac.uk
prediction of the future is removed. However, although
many existing sets of scenarios, such as the Royal Com-
mission on Environmental Pollution’s scenarios [2] or
the Tyndall centre scenarios [3], feature extensive use
of renewable and low carbon generation, they do not
explicitly allocate this capacity to micro-generation.
It is therefore a need to develop a set of scenarios
specifically for looking at the deployment of micro-
generation capacity, its environmental attributes, and
network impacts.
Two existing sets of scenarios were identified, which
exhibited high levels of micro-generation. The Future
Network Technologies (FNT) scenarios [4] describe
a range of six high-level scenarios of electricity net-
works in 2050. Each of the scenarios considers a
range of technical, economic, environmental, and
regulatory possibilities and predicts generation and
capacity mixes and network infrastructures. The UK
domestic carbon model (UKDCM) was developed to
model energy and carbon use within housing between
1996 and 2050 and looked at the influence of energy

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644 C N Jardine and G W Ault

efficiency measures and micro-generation as a means
of progressing to a low carbon future in the 40 per cent
house project [5]. The model has since been developed
(UKDCM2) [6] to produce three scenarios [7], allowing
a more detailed sensitivity analysis of key parameters,
which include household numbers; insulation levels
of walls, windows, roofs, and floors; internal temper-
ature; appliance ownership; and use of low and zero
carbon technologies (LZCs) within the home.
The FNT scenarios are supply-side focused, whereas
the UKDCM takes a demand-side approach. The FNT
scenarios and the UKDCM were therefore combined to
produce a set of three ‘SUPERGEN HDPS scenarios’ for
use within the research consortium. This integration
of the two set of scenarios has kept the level of detail
present in each approach and allows a representation
of the housing stock, appliance usage, electricity and
heat demand, and the centralized generation mix – all
key parameters for the study of micro-generation and
its influence on electricity networks.
2 CREATING THE SCENARIOS
The combination of the two parent scenarios was
complicated by the differences in approach in their
respective development. Although they are well
matched in overlying ethos, the numbers themselves
do not tally exactly, so the hybrid SUPERGEN HDPS
scenarios required choices to be made as to which par-
ent scenario to use for any given parameter. In general,
the FNT scenarios were used to provide relative pen-
etrations of centralized generators, while the UKDCM
contributed domestic demand and penetrations of
the different micro-generation types (Table 1). The
FNT scenarios ‘Business as Usual’ (BAU), ‘Strong Opti-
mism’, and ‘Green Plus’ were combined with UKDCM
scenarios A, B, and a variant on B, respectively, to
produce the three SUPERGEN HDPS scenarios. The
existing estimates of non-domestic electricity demand
[8] and the forthcoming retirement of nuclear [9] and
coal plant [10, 11] were also incorporated into the final
scenarios. It is worth remembering that the scenar-
ios were chosen solely for their high micro-generation
components and that other visions of centralized gen-
eration options (notably a high nuclear, future) are
explicitly not examined here.
2.1 Assumptions in the scenarios
The scenarios were created in three stages: electricity
demand was predicted out to 2050, electricity gener-
ation from decentralized sources was predicted, and
the remaining electricity generation requirement was
met from centralized sources.
2.1.1 Electricity demand
For each scenario, electricity demand for households
was generated from the relevant UKDCM scenario
based on the assumed stock of lights and appliances
as well as building type and occupancy. Non-domestic
electricity demand was split into two broad categories:
industrial and other uses. Scenarios for future energy
use were taken from Department of Trade and Industry
(DTI) [8]. The baseline case was used for the BAU sce-
nario and data were scaled to the ‘behavioural change’
case for use in scenarios where demand reduction was
considered critical. Total electricity demand was cal-
culated to be the sum of domestic and non-domestic
demands.
2.1.2 Decentralized electricity generation
Each scenario assumes different penetrations and
average capacities of LZCs (Stirling combined heat
and power (CHP), fuel cell CHP, district heating, heat

Table 1 How FNTs and UKDCM scenarios combine to form SUPERGEN HDPS scenarios

FNT scenarios UK domestic carbon model Other sources SUPERGEN HDPS scenarios

Total electricity demand Domestic heat demand Domestic heat demand

Domestic electricity
demand
Micro-generation Micro-generation
technologies technologies
penetrations penetrations
Domestic micro-
generation heat
provision
Decentralized electricity Decentralized domestic
generation electricity generation
Centralized electricity Centralized generation
technologies treated as single
emissions factor
Socio-technological vision Socio-technological vision
Non-domestic electricity Total electricity demand
demand [8] (domestic and non-
domestic)
Micro-generation
technologies
penetrations
Domestic micro-
generation heat
provision
Assumptions made Decentralized electricity
about non-domestic provision
electricity generation
Nuclear [9] and coal Centralized electricity
[10, 11] plant retirement technologies
renewables obligation
Socio-technological vision

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 Scenarios for examination of HDPS
pumps, solar thermal, solar photovoltaics (PV), and
μ-wind) over time to 2050. The UKDCM calculates
the electricity generated by decentralized sources:
rooftop technologies are capacity multiplied by annual
yield, whereas thermal technologies operate as heat-
led devices and meet total space and water heating
requirements in the home. Average thermal efficien-
cies and annual electricity generation for all technolo-
gies increase over time as technologies develop.
Decentralized electricity sources will also provide
heat and electricity to non-domestic properties. The
UKDCM does not explicitly model non-domestic
buildings at present, so assumptions were made
about electricity generation in such properties. Non-
domestic properties were assumed to be able to gen-
erate 50 per cent of electricity demand on-site as they
are typically larger buildings with proportionally lower
heat requirements (i.e. less CHP or solar thermal),
smaller roof areas (i.e. less PV or wind), and higher
electricity demand (i.e. high occupancy). Comparing
the non-domestic and domestic sectors, it is assumed
that the former produces 32 per cent of the electric-
ity of the latter in 2050. However, current economic
conditions (economies of scale, smaller proportional
overheads per kilo watt installed, access to up-front
capital, dedicated energy managers, and promotion of
green-image for corporate social responsibility aims)
favour the installation of a larger equipment in non-
domestic properties rather than many small instal-
lations at the domestic level. It is therefore assumed
that non-domestic micro-generation will be relatively
more significant in the shorter term, so electricity
generation from non-domestic micro-generation is
assumed to be 100 per cent of domestic generation
across all scenarios in 1996. This declines to the 32 per
cent outlined above by 2050.
2.1.3 Centralized electricity generation
Centralized sources provide the balance of electricity
provision (total demand - distributed generation). The
FNT scenarios provide the percentage mix of electric-
ity generation from centralized sources in 2050. Micro-
generation, PV, μ-wind, and biomass were modelled
within decentralized electricity generation, as above.
The relative proportions of offshore wind, onshore
wind, marine, Combined Cycle Gas Turbine (CCGT),
CCGT with carbon capture and storage (CCS), nuclear,
and coal in 2050 are taken from the appropriate FNT
scenarios and scaled to fill the total residual electricity
demand. Trajectories are estimated for offshore wind,
onshore wind, marine, and CCGT with CCS out to
2050. Each technology was assigned a take-off date,
final generation level, and maturity date, and an s-
curve was fitted to model the trajectory. For example,
marine generation was assumed to be 0 until 2020 and
increase in capacity until maturity in 2050.
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645
Nuclear generation was assumed to decrease until
2025 in line with the foreseen programme of nuclear
plant closures [9]. Coal-fired generation was also
predicted to decrease to 2016 in line with the expected
impacts of the large combustion plant directive [10]
and is assumed to be an average of the DTI’s high and
low case [11] resulting in a decline from 118 to 75 TWh
of electricity supplied per annum. Large hydro [12] was
assumed to be constant across all scenarios to 2050.
Other sources, mainly landfill gas, are also significant
in the current generation mix, but this was assumed to
decline to 2050, under the influence of the EU Land-
fill Directive [13]. Other biofuels are assumed to be
increasingly important to 2050, but these are envis-
aged operating as community scale CHP to minimize
fuel transport. Such biomass use is therefore included
in the decentralized generation sector.
The remaining centralized generation to be
accounted for could have been filled by either CCGT
or coal with flue gas desulphurization. In accordance
with the low carbon visions of most scenarios, and the
continued influence of policies such as the EU Emis-
sions Trading Scheme (EU ETS), CCGT is assumed to
be the preferred generation technology. This vision is
in accordance with the DTI’s own energy scenarios to
2020 [14].
3 THE SCENARIOS
3.1 The HDPS BAU scenario
This scenario represents a future where change is
incremental and reflects the continuation of near term
trends, technological development, environmental
attitudes, and policy. The scenario has been created
as a combination of FNTs BAU scenario with ‘Sce-
nario A’ from the UKDCM. There is some increase
in small-scale generation technologies, which is con-
sumer demand led, rather than the result of significant
policy intervention. Overall, the electricity network
remains dominated by centralized fossil fuel gener-
ation, and network control continues to operate in
the same manner as present. However, large cen-
tralized renewables continue to be a growth area, in
particular offshore wind, resulting in a decarboniza-
tion of electricity supply. As a result, consumption
continues to rise, but carbon dioxide emissions are
reduced.
Society remains unrestricted in its consumption of
energy and improvements in energy efficiency con-
tinue to be outweighed by an increase in demand for
energy services. In particular, the consumer electron-
ics sector is assumed to continue to be a major growth
area, with plasma televisions, PCs, and digital ser-
vices commonplace. An increasingly wealthy society
will demand more luxury goods such as cooling and
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646 C N Jardine and G W Ault
Fig. 1 Electricity supplied by different sources under the
BAU scenario
outdoor goods such as patio heaters and jacuzzis. Elec-
tricity demand in the domestic sector rises from 116 to
177 TWh per annum, with similar increases observed
in industrial and commercial sectors resulting in a
total electricity demand of 480 TWh in 2050.
Demand for heating is also expected to increase
mainly as a result of the increase in numbers of
households. Furthermore, average internal tempera-
tures are expected to rise and then saturate at 23 ◦ C,
so the incremental improvements in efficiency of the
housing stock and heating technologies are largely
taken back in the form of additional comfort. Similarly,
demand for hot water continues its strong growth and
is predicted to rise by 28 per cent by 2050.
Centralized electricity supply remains dominated
by fossil fuel plant, with CCGT (nearly half with
Fig. 3 Energy use by fuel and CO2 emissions from the domestic sector under the BAU scenario
Proc. IMechE Vol. 222 Part A: J. Power and Energy
Fig. 2 Proportion of heat supplied to homes by different
sources under the BAU scenario
CCS), coal, and nuclear important sources of gener-
ation. However, there is also an increase in renewable
generation, with offshore wind showing especially
strong growth (Fig. 1).
Under the BAU scenario, the growth in utilization
of distributed generation technologies follows current
trends. This sees a marginal penetration of all tech-
nologies, with solar thermal being installed on 10 per
cent of properties, with 5 per cent of houses having
PV and μ-wind. There is also a slight trend away from
gas central heating towards Stirling and fuel cell CHP,
heat pumps, and district heating, but no technology
makes a major impact by 2050 (Fig. 2). Nonetheless,
the cumulative effect of these small changes is signif-
icant and coupled with demand reduction measures,
decentralized sources supply 29 per cent of heat and
23 per cent of electricity to homes.
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 Scenarios for examination of HDPS 647

Within the domestic sector, energy use from all fuels

rises 12 per cent to 512 TWh by 2050, but greater use
of renewables and CHP sees CO2 emissions decrease
to 30.5 MtC per annum (71 per cent of 1996 levels), as
shown in Fig. 3.

3.2 The HDPS low carbon scenario

This scenario presents a vision of a low carbon future,
featuring extensive penetrations of distributed gener-
ation, by combination of the FNT ‘Strong Optimism’
scenario and the UKDCM ‘Scenario B’. Environmen-
tal objectives are a priority and electricity and heat
demand are reduced compared with the BAU scenario
as a result of strong energy efficiency measures. Dis-
tributed generation contributes ≈44 per cent of overall
Fig. 5 Heat supplied to homes by different sources
electricity supply, and residential dwellings are net
under the low carbon scenario
exporters of electricity in 2050. Centralized genera-
tion remains diverse but is completely decarbonized
In a more carbon aware society, householders are
by 2050. Renewables (offshore wind, onshore wind,
assumed to be more aware of their energy use for
and marine) contribute 71 per cent of centralized gen-
heating in the home. As a consequence, indoor tem-
eration, with nuclear and CCGT making up the balance
peratures continue to rise in line with current trends
(Fig. 4).
but saturate at 22 ◦ C. Heat demand is increasingly pro-
Under this scenario, the society is assumed to value
vided by LZCs: in 2050, Stirling engine CHP accounts
carbon and adopt energy-saving measures accord-
for 15 per cent of heat provision; fuel cell CHP 20 per
ingly. Strong product standards mean that the tech-
cent; heat pumps 5 per cent; and district heating 15 per
nical potential of appliances is reached, with vacuum
cent (Fig. 5). The heat supplied by gas boiler systems
insulated panel fridges and light emitting diode (LED)
declines to just 26 per cent, but electric heating rises
lighting the norm. Restrictions are also placed on new
to 13 per cent, mainly to provide highly efficient new
products (e.g. patio heaters and air conditioners) and
build properties with their minimal heating require-
fuel switching to gas is encouraged where appropri-
ments (<2000 kWh per annum) – for such properties,
ate. The net result is that domestic electricity demand
it is not considered cost-effective to install wet central
peaks in 2015, and reduces to 111 TWh in 2050. Mild
heating systems. The rooftop technologies also show
growth in electricity demand is seen in the industrial
strong growth with solar thermal on 12 per cent of
and commercial sectors. Overall electricity demand
properties, PV on 10 per cent, and μ-wind on 7 per
peaks in 2020 at 376 TWh per annum, reducing to
cent, and heat pumps accounting for a further 5 per
345 TWh in 2050.
cent of heat demand.
Micro-generation makes a substantial contribution
to the electricity supply mix in 2050 (Fig. 4). House-
holds are net exporters, and overall micro-generation
provides 117 TWh out of an economy-wide demand of
345 TWh. Onshore and offshore wind grows strongly
in the short term under the influence of the renew-
ables obligation, as does marine in the longer term. All
coal plants are closed by 2050, but there remains some
residual nuclear generation. Gas use makes up the
shortfall of electricity between 2015 and 2030, peak-
ing at a maximum of 206 TWh in 2021, but is used
less as renewables come on line. By 2050, the remain-
ing gas-fired plant is used in conjunction with carbon
sequestration technologies.
Within the domestic sector, energy use from all fuels
decreases 1 per cent to 379 TWh by 2050, despite the 33
per cent increase in households (Fig. 6). The increased
Fig. 4 Electricity supplied by different sources under the use of centralized renewables and decentralized gen-
low carbon scenario eration yields domestic CO2 emissions of 18.7 MtC

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648 C N Jardine and G W Ault

Fig. 6 Energy use by fuel and CO2 emissions from the domestic sector under the low carbon
scenario

per annum in 2050 (43 per cent of 1996 levels). This

is in line with the 60 per cent emissions reduction
estimated to be necessary by current government pol-
icy. The remaining emissions are all for meeting heat
demand within homes – it is important to note that
decarbonizing the electricity supply is not enough on
its own to reduce CO2 emissions by 60 per cent.

3.3 The HDPS deep green scenario

This scenario presents an alternative vision of a low
emissions future and one in which renewable genera-
tors play a more important role in electricity provision.
It has been created from the FNT ‘Green Plus’ sce-
nario and a variant on UKDCM scenario B. Once Fig. 7 Electricity supplied by different sources under the
again, demand for heat and electricity is minimized deep green scenario
by improvements to the building fabric and demand
reduction measures. Electricity and heat demands
are identical to the low carbon scenario; the only
differences arise from how the energy is provided.
Centralized generation is completely renewable, with
offshore wind providing 80 per cent of centralized gen-
eration and the remainder from onshore wind and
marine sources. Fossil fuel generation does not exist
at all as a consequence of high fossil fuel prices –
either because supply is short or financially penalized
on environmental grounds (Fig. 7).
As with the low carbon scenario, internal tempera-
tures are assumed to saturate at 22 ◦ C. LZCs provide
the majority of heating, but because of the high gas
prices under this scenario, CHP plays a smaller role.
In 2050, Stirling engine CHP accounts for only 10 per
cent of heat requirements, fuel cell CHP 15 per cent,
heat pumps 10 per cent, and district heating 20 per
cent (Fig. 8). Importantly, biomass also plays a more Fig. 8 Heat supplied to homes by different sources
important role in heat provision, supplying 10 per cent under the deep green scenario

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 Scenarios for examination of HDPS
of homes directly, and 30 per cent of Stirling engines
and 50 per cent of district heating schemes are also
assumed to be fuelled by biomass or waste. The heat
supplied by gas boiler systems declines to just 21 per
cent, and electric heating rises to 13 per cent. Domestic
electricity generation becomes more important with
PV and μ-wind on 20 per cent and 10 per cent of
households by 2050.
Electricity demand under the deep green scenario
is assumed to be identical to that under the low car-
bon scenario. These two scenarios present the same
societal vision, and demand is therefore identical.
These scenarios only differ in the means in which the
electricity demand is met.
Under the deep green scenario, micro-generation
again plays a major role in 2050, providing 147 of
345 TWh (Fig. 7). The centralized electricity genera-
tion is completely decarbonized by 2050, and sourced
entirely from renewables. The majority comes from
offshore wind, with onshore wind and marine tech-
nologies providing the balance. Once again, extra
gas-fired generation capacity is needed between 2015
and 2030 to cover the declining output of coal and
nuclear plants, but this is lower than under other sce-
narios due to the extensive offshore wind capacity
installed in the near to medium term.
Overall, LZCs provide 66 per cent of heat to house-
holds. Electricity generation is slightly lower than
under the low carbon scenario at 111 TWh per
annum, mainly due to the lower penetration of fuel
cell CHP.
Within the domestic sector, energy use from all fuels
decreases 1 per cent to 379 TWh by 2050 carbon diox-
ide emissions reduce to 13.7 MtC per annum (32 per
cent of 1996 levels), less than the low carbon scenario
due to the greater use of biomass for heat provision
(Fig. 9). This clearly emphasizes the importance of
Fig. 9 Energy use by fuel and CO2 emissions from the domestic sector under the deep green
scenario
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649
renewable sources of heat for meeting Government
CO2 emissions reduction targets.
3.4 Summary of scenarios
The key features of the scenarios are summarized in
Table 2.
4 CONSEQUENCES OF THE SCENARIOS
The scenarios presented allow some conclusions to be
drawn about the environmental benefits of distributed
generation and the electricity network consequences
of such changes. The extent of change, especially
under the low carbon and deep green scenarios is vast
– moving from a centralized generation model in the
present day to one in which households are self suffi-
cient in electricity. However, the changes illustrated
here are indicative of the scale of change required
to reduce CO2 emissions by 60 per cent by 2050. It
is clear that these changes will pose significant chal-
lenges for network operation, especially in the form of
uncontrolled generation. There is a potential conflict
between reducing CO2 emissions and network oper-
ation (and costs), and forthcoming work will address
the issues raised in the rest of this paper. The following
section highlights potential issues, but does not seek
at this stage to provide any definitive answers.
4.1 Emission factors
An emissions factor for electricity from the grid can
be calculated from the emissions factor of the indi-
vidual plant in the centralized generation mix. The
‘grid emissions factor’ varies with what technologies
are taken up, at what rate, and the emissions factor for
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650 C N Jardine and G W Ault

Table 2 Summary of key features of the scenarios

1996 BAU Low carbon Deep green

Overview
Parent scenario (FNT) – BAU Strong optimism Green plus
Parent scenario – A B B
(UKDCM)
Approach – Current policy Medium gas price, High gas price, cen-
and incremental some central- tralized generation
technological ized generation, 100% renew-
change substantial able, substantial
micro-generation micro-generation
Gas price Low Low Low High

Demographics and demand

Population (2050) 59 million 66.8 million 66.8 million 66.8 million
Households 23.8 million 31.8 million 31.8 million 31.8 million
Demolition rate Current levels Current levels Increased four-fold Increased four-fold
Internal temperatures 18.5 ◦ C existing Saturates at 23 ◦ C Saturates at 22 ◦ C Saturates at 22 ◦ C
properties
19.5 ◦ C new build
Space heating – Improvements in Greater improvements Greater improvements
efficiency taken to stock and to stock and
as comfort until decreases more decreases more
internal temperature rapidly as saturation rapidly as saturation
saturates reached earlier reached earlier
Hot water – Increases by 28% to Increases 14% to 2050 Increases by 14% by
2050 in line with 2050
current trends
Energy of lights and – Increases due to higher Decreases due to Decreases due to
appliances ownership and new improvements in improvements in
energy intensive efficiency and fuel efficiency and fuel
products switching switching
Micro-generation Micro-generation Gas boilers still dom- Strong uptake of Strong uptake of micro-
markets just inant technology. micro-generation generation, but CHP
beginning to take off LZC ownership at especially CHP contribution smaller
38% in 2050 due to high gas
prices
Total electricity 382.2 512.9 379.7 379.7
demand (TWh)

Centralized generation in 2050 (FNT)

Offshore wind (TWh) 0 71.5 76.7 132.4
Onshore wind (TWh) 0 26.0 19.2 33.1
Marine (TWh) 0 19.5 38.4 29.4
Nuclear (TWh) 83.3 32.5 26.8 0
CCGT (TWh) 72.2 130.1 0 0
CCGT + CCS (TWh) 0 97.6 26.8 0
Coal (TWh) 128.4 45.5 0 0
Emissions factor of 0.155 0.24 0 0
centralized
generation,
(tCO2 /MWh)

Decentralized generation in 2050 (UKDCM)

% heat from Stirling 0 5 15 10
engine CHP
% heat from fuel cell 0 4 20 15
engine CHP
% heat from heat pump 0 2.5 5 10
% heat from district 0.2 5 15 20
heating
% properties with Solar 0.03 10 12 25
thermal
% properties with PV 0 5 10 15
% properties with 0 5 7 10
μ-wind

Domestic model outputs

Domestic electricity 116.8 178.0 111.3 112.1
demand (TWh)

(Continued)

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 Scenarios for examination of HDPS 651

Table 2 Continued

1996 BAU Low carbon Deep green

Domestic space 214.0 245.8 191.8 191.8

heating demand
(TWh)
Total domestic demand 305.8 480.2 345.6 364.4
(TWh)
Domestic micro- 0.18 40.4 116.5 111.8
generation (TWh)
% domestic demand 0 22 104 99
from LZC
Mt C (2050) 43.0 30.5 18.7 14.1
CO2 emissions 100 71 43 32
compared with 1996
(%)
Network issues
Reverse power flow Not an issue Some power flow up A reversal of traditional A reversal of traditional
to medium-voltage power flows – from power flows – from
network low to high low to high
Variability Minimal Some local effects from Balancing micro- Balancing micro-
weather fronts generation and generation and
variable central- variable central-
ized renewables ized renewables
challenging extremely challeng-
ing. All controllable
generators are on the
low voltage network
Ancillary services Provided by control- Provided by control- Provided by both Provided solely by con-
lable centralized lable centralized centralized and trollable distributed
plant plant coordinated generators
distributed plant
Supply gap – An expansion in Some more CCGT Some more CCGT
CCGT capacity that capacity, but mostly capacity, but
remains utilised out retired by 2050 completely retired
to 2050 by 2050

each technology. The grid emissions factor (expressed
as kgC per kilowatt-hour electricity supplied) under
the three scenarios are shown in Fig. 10 and is a mea-
sure of the carbon offset by micro-generation or energy
saved through efficiency measures within the home.
All scenarios follow a comparatively similar trajectory
until 2025 as this period is dominated by the closure of
coal and nuclear plants, and the incorporation of some
renewables into the electricity mix, which reduces
emissions to ca. 0.12 kgC/kWh. Beyond 2025, the BAU
scenario retains coal and gas plants but both low car-
bon and deep green scenarios completely decarbonize
their central electricity mix, the former through CCGT
with CCS and extensive marine, which mature later.
Both these scenarios are capable of supplying elec-
tricity to end-users with a lower grid emissions factor
than burning natural gas in the home post-2040. This
has behavioural implications, not modelled here, in
which householders could revert to electric heating
technologies, which would have overall lower carbon
emissions than conventional boilers and gas fuelled
CHP. Such fuel switching would then cause an increase
in demand on the electricity network, and greater
generation and network capacity requirements.

4.2 Import/export issues

The BAU scenario has the least amount of domes-
tic scale electrical generation. However, even with 22
per cent of domestic electricity supplies coming from
micro-generation there will be a significant number of
times throughout the year when there is export from
Fig. 10 Emission factors for electricity and gas under the individual houses and from groups of houses, low-
different scenarios voltage power circuits and even reverse power through

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652 C N Jardine and G W Ault
high-voltage and medium-voltage electrical substa-
tions. In this scenario, the domestic electrical con-
sumption rises very substantially; major investment
would be required in circuit capacity if this rise in
consumption also led to a rise in the peak period
demand level. If the majority of consumer load was
directed to comfort (e.g. heating and lighting) and
entertainment (plasma screen televisions), then the
winter evening peak demand would undoubtedly rise
causing the major network capacity investment. If
however, the majority of the rise in demand arose
from other luxury items such as outdoor goods (e.g.
hot tubs, lighting) and ‘trade-up’ domestic appliances
(e.g. larger sized refrigerators), then the contribution
to system peak demand would not be as significant
and the situation would be more manageable from a
power network perspective.
The ‘low carbon’ and ‘deep green’ scenarios have a
vast amount of micro-generation in comparison with
the situation in 2007. The operation of this domestic
generation portfolio fuelled by diverse sources (solar,
natural gas, wind, and biomass) will have major impli-
cations for matching electricity generation to demand.
For periods of low electricity demand period (e.g.
summer days), there would at some times also be a sig-
nificant production of electricity from solar and wind
sources that would cause excess power to flow from
low-voltage networks into higher voltage networks.
This reverses the general pattern of power flow from
higher to lower voltage networks. The implications for
planning and operating power systems are substantial
with obvious changes to the level of required circuit
capability to individual consumers and groups of con-
sumers and to power network control systems (e.g. for
voltage control and circuit protection). In the case of a
high-demand period (e.g. winter evening) there would
be no solar power output and if this coincided with
little or no wind output then the burden of meeting
demand would be placed on CHP units (which would
be required to meet the heating load in any case)
and imports into distribution networks from central
generating units. The key issue in this case would
be the lack of contribution to high system demand
from a large section of the micro-generation portfo-
lio. Some reserve capability would still be required
from central generating units unless effective demand
management or energy storage was available.
4.3 Generation production and demand variability
The power output variability of the primary sources
of energy at a domestic level will also be important.
Many of the identified issues could be resolved due
to diversity in location and customer behaviour. For
example, it might be supposed that clouds passing
over solar panels, changes in wind speed, timing of
Proc. IMechE Vol. 222 Part A: J. Power and Energy
individual customers starting CHP units would each
cause major changes in power production. However, in
reality, the diversity in the timing of these occurrences
and their location would likely lessen (or smooth) their
impact. The implication of the variability would bring
more emphasis onto flexibility in operation of con-
trolled generating unit output to track the variations.
The difference in electrical generation with the pass-
ing of weather fronts can be imagined: reduced output
from solar devices with cloud cover, reduced output
from wind generation with lowering wind speed. At
the same time, there might be a reduction in electri-
cal output from CHP units due to time of the day. The
change in power output over a short period could be
very dramatic. Flexible generating units (most likely
central units connected to the main transmission sys-
tem) would have more balancing duty placed upon
them in these situations. The domination of the central
generating pool by wind power in the ‘low carbon’ and
‘deep green’ scenarios presents an issue here. Thus, in
the scenarios that need most flexibility in central gen-
eration, the central generation portfolio is dominated
by less flexible generation.
Alternatives for balancing generation and demand
at a regional or local level might lean on energy
storage technologies or smarter demand-side man-
agement than is employed at present. In particular,
it is envisaged that coordinated control of the installed
micro-generation capacity utilizing more active net-
work management could make a major contribution
towards the balancing process. Given the likely inflex-
ibility in a central generation pool based on wind
generation, the obligation to balance demand and
supply would have to be pushed down the system to
local or regional areas. The location of energy stor-
age or demand-side measures to manage the rapidly
changing energy imbalance is a key issue. Some of the
large load demand-side potential is already expended
to cover power system emergencies. Greater exploita-
tion of medium to large loads might be possible, but at
a cost. Demand management at the small commercial
and domestic customer level has much potential but
requires a serious effort in adoption and subsequent
coordination. However, given futures where such large
numbers of customers have installed generation capa-
bility on their property, there is good opportunity also
to implement effective demand management ranging
from optimally timed operation of wet goods to water
and the use of space heating (electric, heat pumps, and
micro-CHP) with a heat storage component.
This concept of active system management has been
developed as the virtual power plant concept [15].
Here, instead of a traditional ‘fit and forget’ approach
to micro-generation, the virtual power plant enhances
the visibility and control of small-scale generators to
system operators and other market actors. Under a ‘fit
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 Scenarios for examination of HDPS
and forget’ approach, the micro-generation displaces
the energy from centralized generation, but cannot
replace capacity, as the central generation is still
required to provide system support and security. By
fully integrating micro-generation into system oper-
ation, and allowing it to participate in energy mar-
kets and system management, retirement of central
plant is possible. This approach makes the best use
of all assets on the system, resulting in lower cost
generation.
4.4 Phase unbalance issues
With so much domestic generation in the scenarios,
there are important power system engineering issues
to be addressed. One of these is the nature of three-
phase electrical systems. One underlying requirement
in exploiting the economic and technical benefits of
three-phase power systems is to maintain balance in
the loading across the three phases branching out from
substations. Without this balance, currents will flow
in neutral conductors and voltage levels are likely to
drift – neither of these conditions is desirable and
can damage power system plant as well as customer
equipment. The greater variability in the magnitude of
net loads from properties on the three phases (not to
mention the direction of flow as noted previously) is
very likely to increase the incidence of phase unbal-
ance problems. Some of the solutions noted earlier
(e.g. demand management, energy storage) are likely
to have a role to play in solving this problem.
4.5 Reactive power issues
A problem with small-scale rotating generating units
(e.g. squirrel cage induction generators) is their
requirement for reactive power (i.e. currents out of
phase with active power flows). Arrangements for
compensating the additional reactive power load can
have unusual effects on local voltage level depend-
ing on whether the generation operates at periods of
high- or low-demand and on what basis any reac-
tive compensation is deployed. Careful coordination
of the introduction of high levels of small-scale rotat-
ing generation into low voltage power systems will be
required. Other technical electrical issues include the
incidence of harmonic currents and voltages in lower
voltage distribution networks. These currents and volt-
ages not only emanate from ‘switched mode’ power
supplies (already significantly penetrating power net-
works as power supplies to electronic appliances)
but also from the power electronic interfaces of fuel
cell, photovoltaic, and energy storage technologies.
The negative effects of harmonics include abnormal
heating and mal-operation of electrical equipments.
High-quality power electronic converters and effective
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653
filtering can potentially solve this problem but at
additional cost.
4.6 Ancillary services
The existing power system operates efficiently and
securely on the foundation of large central generation
plant, which provides various ancillary services. These
services include voltage control, frequency response,
reserve, and black start capabilities. In the ‘low car-
bon’ and ‘deep green’ scenarios, there is a massive shift
of generating plant away from the larger transmission
connected units. What generation is left connected to
the transmission system is dominated by the variable
sources of wind and marine energy. Providing effec-
tive ancillary services to support the operation of the
power system in these scenarios is a major challenge.
It could be argued that voltage control is more effec-
tively provided closer to loads but there is still a need to
support the voltage in an interconnected transmission
system.
Frequency response, reserve, and black start capa-
bility are more challenging. Frequency response is the
service of providing additional generating output to
meet the changing supply–demand balance and to
respond to unplanned outages of operating generating
plant. This is essential to maintain supply frequency
within tight limits. There are possibilities to arrest fre-
quency drops through demand curtailment but this
depends on a well-coordinated system with signifi-
cant magnitude of demand willing to be chopped and
changed at short notice to respond to system require-
ments. Large-scale energy storage can play a part here
in much the same manner as pumped storage hydro
generation does at present. Reserve capacity is the
generation capacity that operates at a reduced out-
put, is rotating at minimum output or is ready to
start at short notice. It is not clear which generating
units would operate in this mode in the ‘low car-
bon’ and ‘deep green’ scenarios. Perhaps biomass units
could operate in this mode or coordinated dispatch-
ing of small and very small-scale generation in times
of system emergencies combined with demand-side
measures and energy storage could fill this gap.
4.7 Meeting the medium-term supply gap
Under all the three scenarios, the combined effect
of increased demand and the retirement of coal and
nuclear plant in the medium-term lead to a supply gap
and the need for new capacity. In each of the scenar-
ios, it has been assumed that this gap will be met by an
increased capacity of CCGT plant. However, under the
low carbon and deep green scenarios, which feature
extensive renewable sources and micro-generation
post-2030, the majority of this gas plant is then retired.
Proc. IMechE Vol. 222 Part A: J. Power and Energy
654 C N Jardine and G W Ault
The shape of these curves is the result of the back-
casting approach taken to scenario development, but
nonetheless illustrates the problem of stranded assets
if we are to both reach the 2050 futures illustrated and
keep the lights on in the medium term. Such plant
would still have value in terms of providing backup to
the electricity system, so would not be truly ‘stranded’.
Once again, it is worth noting that other electricity sys-
tem features are possible, where this would not be an
issue.
There is therefore a need for both technologies
and policies to avoid the requirement for a new gas
plant in the medium term. Energy efficiency mea-
sures that could be implemented rapidly to reduce
the demand such as phasing out incandescent light-
bulbs or implementing either centralized renewable
or decentralized generation technologies more rapidly
than illustrated would avoid the need for new gas
capacity that could become obsolete. It would also
help prevent the UK becoming over-reliant on a sin-
gle fuel for the majority of its electricity and heating
requirements, which is detrimental in fuel security
terms and leaves the economy vulnerable to fluctu-
ations in the wholesale gas price.
4.8 Energy storage issues
The ownership, management, and location of energy
storage devices are more problematic – notwithstand-
ing the unattractive economics at present. If own-
ership were left with the power network operator,
their goals would include managing equipment load-
ing away from peak demand periods and maintain-
ing/enhancing supply security. Individual customers
would also be interested in maximizing energy cap-
ture from their generation devices (through an energy
storage unit) to reduce power purchase costs. Energy
service companies would likely focus on reducing the
overall fuel purchase costs for a population of cus-
tomers. The different objectives of these stakeholders
allow partial but not fully complementary objectives
for use of energy storage capacity. The location of the
devices depends to some degree on ownership and
management but the individual customer approach to
energy storage does not allow for larger and more eco-
nomic energy storage solutions. Larger devices would
be located in medium- and high-voltage power net-
works and thus would suit operation for an entire
group of customers. The commercial arrangements
for sharing a larger energy storage resource would be
complex.
5 CONCLUSIONS
This paper has introduced a set of three scenarios
that take previous scenario work further through,
Proc. IMechE Vol. 222 Part A: J. Power and Energy
focusing specifically on the micro-scale. The scenarios
present a challenging picture of changes that would
be required in the use of energy in buildings and
in the power system at large. The issues of massive
deployment of wind and marine renewables (as in the
‘low carbon’ and ‘deep green’ scenarios) are discussed
in other literatures [16–21]. One major factor is the
expense and difficulty of developing the power sys-
tem to cater for their needs. The massive change in
geographical spread and capability of the transmis-
sion system to reach all regions with high levels of
renewables (likely to be offshore and in the north of
the country) would require very substantial planning
system amendments, incentive schemes, use of sys-
tem pricing mechanisms, and investment funds. The
radical shifts required in these areas cannot be over-
emphasized. Considering transitions towards the ‘low
carbon’ and ‘deep green’ scenarios really does require
a complete rethink of the nature of power systems. The
scenarios presented here provide a stimulus to further
analysis of this and other questions as to the nature of
future energy supplies.
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