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20200717-PBC-This Overlooked Catalyst Changes Everything
20200717-PBC-This Overlooked Catalyst Changes Everything
Soon after, the crypto bubble popped, and we entered the brutal 2018 Crypto Winter. Bitcoin
hit a low of $3,146 during the bear market.
Here’s why I’m telling you this story…
At just over a decade old, crypto is still a relatively new asset class, meaning it’s volatile by
nature. We saw similar volatility in the early days of internet stocks.
For instance, from December 2007 to November 2008, Apple dropped over 60% –including a
51% drop in just one week at the end of September 2008.
In its early days, Amazon fared even worse. From December 1999 to September 2001, it
dropped 94%.
Today, these are trillion-dollar companies.
Then, like now, you needed to have a long-term vision of where you expected the asset to go…
matched with sensible position-sizing, so the volatility didn’t scare you out of your position. I
call these “asymmetric bets,” where we can minimize risk, but still realize astonishing
potential gains.
In the case of Apple and Amazon, just a $1,000 investment in each (and the courage to stick
to your convictions) would have blossomed into as much as $748,843 and $1,583,673,
respectively.
Since getting involved in crypto, I have advocated taking the same measured approach of
using small, uniform position sizes. The long-term vision I’ve had for crypto is that it would
go from a fringe asset to a mainstream asset.
I’ve argued that a new narrative would emerge around crypto assets.
Here is what I mean by that…
Wall Street has a history of using stories called “narratives” to drive its investment decisions.
Often, these narratives are grounded in well-researched theories that start off well enough.
But over time, they have a tendency to go too far…
For instance, in the early 1990s, investors believed we had entered a “new era of permanent
prosperity.” The internet would unleash a new paradigm of endless growth, they argued.
A narrative emerged on Wall Street that you could pay any price for a stock if the underlying
business had “.com” in its name. And that would ensure you got a cut of the profits from this
brand-new technology.
This narrative ensnared the entire investing public. Companies like Cisco traded at 236 times
earnings. AOL traded at 194 times earnings. And there were plenty of companies like Webvan,
which reached a valuation of $1.2 billion with no earnings at all.
As this narrative exploded in popularity, more than $5 trillion in institutional money flowed
into internet stocks. If you were nimble, you made a killing during the dot-com era… Before,
of course, the narrative got stretched too far and prices collapsed.
In 2017, I put forward an idea that a new narrative would take hold among institutional
investors. I said Wall Street would use the narrative of lowering portfolio volatility by adding
bitcoin to a standard stock-and-bond portfolio.
That is exactly what’s happening right now…
For example, a study by Bitwise found a 1% allocation of bitcoin to a traditional 60/40
portfolio (meaning 60% bonds, 40% stocks) would reduce volatility while also increasing
returns.
Based upon what my Wall Street network is telling me, this exact research is now being used
by Wall Street firms to entice their institutional clients to move into bitcoin.
The Narrative of Following Wall Street Greed
Make no mistake: Wall Street greed will be the engine that powers the global adoption of
crypto assets.
Here’s why I believe that…
Fees are the lifeblood of Wall Street. It’s estimated that financial firms rake in about $439
billion per year from fund management fees alone.
This is Wall Street’s gravy train. These firms make it simpler for millions of people to buy
financial products. Then, they charge billions in fees for making them available.
But the gravy is drying up…
Over the last decade, Wall Street profits from managed funds and security products have
decreased by about 24%.
So my thesis a few years ago was these firms would soon turn to crypto financial products as a
new revenue source. They’re just waiting for the regulatory environment to open up.
And we’re seeing that unfold now.
Just this week, crypto custodian Kingdom Trust announced it’s offering customers bitcoin
cold storage through Fidelity Digital Assets.
This is huge news…
Fidelity is the fourth-largest U.S. asset manager. It’s mainly custodied crypto for institutional
clients. But through Kingdom Trust, it’ll offer services to retail clients.
And last year, Fidelity received approval to begin offering crypto trading and custody to its
clients in New York.
Plus, giant companies such as the New York Stock Exchange’s parent company,
Intercontinental Exchange (ICE), Nasdaq, and TD Ameritrade are all beginning to roll out
their own crypto platforms, too.
Bitcoin is already the top-performing asset class in eight of the last 10 calendar years, without
institutions being involved.
That means this trend has long legs…
The World Economic Forum estimates blockchain projects (crypto’s underlying technology)
will store 10% of the world’s gross domestic product by 2027. That’s $8.6 trillion. By contrast,
the entire crypto market cap is just a fraction of that at around $250 billion today.
I’m sharing all this with you today because a brand-new narrative has emerged with the
potential to make the impact of Wall Street’s current narrative look like chump change.
It’s an entirely new $68 trillion market I didn’t account for in the past…
The Secret Catalyst No One Is Taking Seriously
As previously mentioned, looking back, what got investors through the ups and downs of
holding stocks like Apple and Amazon was focusing on the big macro narratives of
smartphone adoption and e-commerce adoption.
I have learned if you can get the big macro narrative right, you’ve already won more than half
the battle. Today, there’s an emerging large-scale new narrative for crypto… And it all has to
do with millennials.
Now, I know what you’re thinking… Millennials have no money, right?
The media certainly portrays millennials as the poorest generation.
The average millennial has about $30,000 in debt and an average net worth of just $8,000.
They make up 22% of the U.S. population, yet own just 3% of the country’s wealth.
But if you stop there, you’ll miss the big picture.
The millennial cohort has grown up with digital assets their whole life. So bitcoin makes a lot
of sense to them, and it’s more natural for them to accept that it has value compared to older
generations.
I speak to a lot of these young people, some of whom are independently wealthy – they’re
worth tens of millions of dollars either through private businesses, crypto, or a combination of
the two. For them, crypto is a core holding.
The numbers bear me out…
According to a survey by Bitcoinist, almost half of U.S. millennials (ages 24–39) trust
cryptocurrency exchanges more than America’s stock exchanges.
A report by global research firm Edelman found that about 25% of the country’s millennials
who earn at least $100,000 in individual or joint income, or own $50,000 worth of investable
assets, admitted to either holding or using cryptocurrencies.
Further, the report also stated another 31% expressed interest in using cryptos. And studies
show millennials prefer to own bitcoin over gold.
Nearly 35% of U.S. labor force participants are millennials, making them the largest
generation in the country, according to a Pew Research Center analysis of U.S. Census Bureau
data.
But all of that’s just dry data that won’t make you a penny.
Here’s what you need to know if you want to make a fortune from this new narrative…
$68 Trillion in New Crypto Money?
According to a report by Coldwell Banker Global, millennials are set to inherit as much as $68
trillion over the next decade.
It’s the largest transfer of wealth in history. In my opinion, a lot of that money is going to find
its way into digital assets.
Take a look at the table below. It shows stock ownership by generation…
Millennials Gen X Baby Boomers
As you can see above, the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC), a fund that gives you access to
bitcoin, is already millennials’ fifth-largest holding at Schwab.
Right now, GBTC is the only fully registered, fully tradable way to buy bitcoin in a brokerage
account (outside of futures). (We recommend buying bitcoin directly and avoiding GBTC
because the trust trades at a 40%-plus premium to the price of bitcoin.)
In my opinion, very soon, those same millennials will be able to buy just about any crypto
asset they want directly from their brokerage accounts the same way they’re buying Apple and
Tesla now without having to pay a 40% premium like they do with GBTC.
That means if buying just stays the same, millennials will be able to buy 40% more bitcoin
with the same amount of money.
But we expect bitcoin buying to explode because as they begin to inherit their parents’ and
grandparents’ fortunes, they will invest in what they know and trust. And that is bitcoin.
Ultimately, you’ll see trillions of those dollars flow into crypto assets.
Here’s why I believe that will happen…
Today, only 9% of the U.S. population owns bitcoin. But about 50% of those who do own it are
millennials…
We expect these numbers to grow exponentially because it’s about to get a whole lot easier to
buy crypto assets.
Here’s what’s happening…
In June, reports surfaced that PayPal and its subsidiary Venmo plan to roll out direct sales of
crypto to its 325 million users.
And surprise, surprise… The biggest users of these platforms are millennials.
I Owe You an Apology
Now, I owe you an apology. I was asleep at the wheel on this one because the “millennial
effect” was never anything I looked at as something that would really move the needle on
crypto prices.
On further reflection, I’ve come to realize millennials will be an entirely new source of
massive demand in crypto – just like they’ve been a massive new source of demand in stock
trading.
Since the beginning of 2020, millennials have poured into the stock market. It’s estimated
they’ve opened more than 3 million new brokerage accounts since January.
According to Robinhood co-CEO Vlad Tenev, the popular trading platform among millennials
has “seen record trading volumes and record depositing activity.”
Their buying (in part) has helped power behemoths like Apple and Tesla to new all-time
highs.
Our belief is that all online brokers will soon start offering direct trading in crypto assets. If
we’re right, the effect of their buying on crypto prices will be massive.
Consider this…
If just 10% of the $68 trillion they’re set to inherit goes into crypto ($7 trillion), the entire
crypto market could go up 25x.
Let me be clear… It won’t be just bitcoin that’ll benefit. Just like Tesla, Google, Netflix, and
Facebook have all benefited from the surge of millennial interest… a handful of crypto coins
will also benefit from the huge millennial buying we see ahead.
In this month’s issue, I’ll share with you the top five coins (four of which are already in our
portfolio) we see best positioned for the onrush of millennial buyers.
We already have exposure to four of these coins thanks to our basket approach, but I’ll explain
below why each coin is uniquely appealing to millennials. If you haven’t added them to your
portfolio yet, make sure you act quickly to get ahead of this new wave of demand.