RISK MANAGEMENT

BACKING
STRATEGIES

www.layback-n-win.com
 RISK MANAGEMENT STRATEGIES
FOR BACKING
OK. You’ve had a steady stream of LOSING favourite winners and you need the next one to WIN!

Time to use the following data to help guide your next favourite selection.

We are looking for factors that will help ensure our selection is MORE LIKELY TO WIN.

Mind you, the horses will do what they want to do, regardless, but at least you’re putting certain
factors in your favour.

Identifying and then avoiding False Favourites (the ones with only a small winning chance despite
the hype) can help swell the bank balance.

This identification requires skill and know-how you will learn from False Favourites written by very
respected English author and Betfair trainer, Jon Burgess.

The book’s principles are applicable to any racing jurisdiction or country -- no matter where you live
or bet, in other words.

Very strongly recommended from here: http://361d9m49rjjz6of-mhv9u21h7w.hop.clickbank.net/

The following filter-strategies are presented for your consideration. Mix’n’match them, or discard
them to suit yourself, of course. But they work for us.

BACKING STRATEGIES FOR BOTH AUSTRALASIAN & UK RACES

1 Choose races where other runners have EXPOSED form – avoid races with
debutante/first starters.

2 Consider The 2nd Favourite

Look at the horse the next closest in WIN PRICE to the current favourite. Ensure there are OVER 3
full integer points between the pair – preferably much MORE.

Why? Because the market thinks the favourite is MORE likely to win, and has identified the nearest
competitor in with a lesser chance of success.

Does it always work? Of course not! But often enough to be worth considering.
3 Count The Runners Priced Under 10
The FEWER runners there are under 10 in the WIN PRICE then the LESS competition the favourite
has.

The favourite had only two other threats under the fixed price of 10.00 – numbers 4 and 6

4 Filter The Last 3 Starts

The statistical trends are pretty clear and have relevance for both UK and Australian racing given
that the original analyses were produced by UK form expert, Van der Wheil, in the 1970s.

INCLUDE any favourite with any of these last 3 start patterns.

Such patterns have 20% or higher strike rates:

111 112 211 212

222 232 252 322
323
Here’s a perfect example of the winning favourite’s last 3 results of 111:

Peter Kaye of RaceRate has analysed and produced Last 3 Start figures for the 2012-2013 Australian
racing season from August 1, 2012 to February 8, 2013. He analysed about 10000 races across 1435
race meetings.

He writes:

Back in the 1970s a UK form guy by the name of Van der Wheil was "red hot" on the issue of
the last three starts being absolutely paramount in any form consideration.

He did a lot of work on last three starts and percentages and some of his charts at that time
showed him that horses with these last three starts won this percentage of races:

111 - 33%, 121 - 32%, 141 - 26%, 122 - 30%, 313 - 24%, 214 - 24%, 404 - 5%, 000 - 2%. (Just
some examples of his work)

They were some of his figures from the 1970s so I thought it may be instructional to re-visit
the same issue some 40 years on and see if the figures still held up.

The only filter we used was the demand that each horse has had at least three starts. No
other filters were taken in to consideration. Spells were not considered either.

[Source: http://www.racerate.com ]
The tables are well presented as you can see from this small sample:

Last 3 # of # of Strike Strike All bet

Av win
starts occurring horses rate / rate / - loss
dividend
figures races qualifying race selection %

111 306 325 30.7% 28.9% - 1.6% 3.40

112 194 199 24.2% 23.6% - 5.4% 4.00

 BACKING STRATEGIES FOR UK RACES

Looking for POSITIVE Race Factors

These two sites are perfect for our needs.

ADRIAN MASSEY: http://adrianmassey.no-ip.org/web1/fav/index.php

This site should need no introduction as it’s well known at your end.

You have everything there to help make some selections with a high chance of winning. The Custom
Report option will be most helpful.

Sadly, Adrian no longer produces the statistics. But even so, general trends revealed will be a useful
guide.

GENERATE YOUR OWN REPORTS: http://www.flatstats.co.uk/favourite-stats.php

This excellent site lets you generate your own specific report(s) based on very specific factors that
your determine. Hopefully it will stay free for a while to come! The Home Page states:

This is the FlatStats Favourites Stats analysis page. You can use this page to analyse
favourites stats for flat turf races. Favourite stats are one of the most important stats
for horse racing. They can show you which races tend to be over-bet by punters and
which races are fairer.

You can examine favourite stats for any type of race such as Maiden Stakes,
Handicaps, Group Races and Selling Races. Just set the form up of the required type
of race and view the comprehensive stats report.

The report also displays a chart which shows the strike rate, profit, and value of
favourites for the past 10 years. You can use this to see if there are any seasonal
changes in the performance of favourites, e.g. favourites may win more races in the
summer months when the going is firm, and the fields smaller, whilst in the autumn
they may not have such a good strike rate.

A Word About Our Use Of Statistics

We are not over-fussed as to when the data was compiled.

Our focus is on using the statistics to indicate trends and tendencies from
which to make generalizations and observe likely red flags.
The statistics that follow are a guide to various factors for your consideration. You can always run
your own comparisons from either of the above two sites, if you wish.
Choose a SMALLER field of runners
No Of Runners Handicap Win% Non-Handicap Win%

<5 50 57.1

5-7 33.7 45.1

8-12 27.5 37.2

12-15 22.7 30.6

16+ 18.4 30.6

Consider The SHORTER Race Distances

<6.5f 23.5 37.1

6.5–9.5f 24.3 38.2

9.5–12.5f 26.9 40.9

12.5–16.5f 27.6 46.8

16.5+ 30.1 46.7

Consider The Time Of Year

Early Season 20 33.4

May 23.7 37.6

June 27.8 38.8

July 29.7 41.9

August 25.9 40.9

September 23.3 38.3

Oct/Nov 22.2 38.4

All-Weather 25 39.3
Consider DRIER AND FIRMER Conditions
Heavy 22.4 34.6

Soft 22.8 34.3

Good/soft 24.6 34.2

Good 24.6 38.7

Good/Firm 25.3 40.9

Firm 27.9 41.2

Hard 25.6 39.7

Consider The Last Time Out

First 30.1 46.5

Second 25 40.4

Third 20.7 37.7

Fourth 23 36.1

Free Form Guides

http://www.racingandsports.com.au/en/form-guide/

and/or

http://www.punters.com.au/form-guide/

Both offer excellent form guides for UK races.

 BACKING STRATEGIES FOR AUSTRALIAN RACES

Looking for POSITIVE Race Factors

1.1 IGNORE a wet track over longer distances

Favourite Percentages for Saturday metropolitan races 1700 metres or more:

• slow (27.2%)
• heavy (21.1%)

1.2 CONCENTRATE on Fast and Good tracks under 1700 metres

• Fast/good 32.6

[Source: Adventures in Handicapping by R Biggs]

1.3 Or simply favour Fast and Good tracks regardless of distance

2 Starts And Spells

Percentages are favourable from 1 to 16 career starts

• 1 37.4%
• 2 36.2%
• 3 42.4%
• 4 41.8%
• 5 – 16 range from 32.7% to 42.0
• !2 an aberration at just 30.2%. We still include it, though.

Percentages are favourable up to 7 runs from a spell of 85+days

• 1 35.8%
• 2 35%
• 3 33.8%
• 4 35.5%
• 5 33.9
• 6 34.7
• 7 33.3

[Source: Adventures in Handicapping by R Biggs]

3 Choose a SMALLER field of runners
Winning Percentages of favourites by field size (196,755 races analysed) across the board

17+ starters 23.2%

16 26.2% 27.2
15 27.1% 27.7
14 27.8% 28.7
13 29.2% 29.6
12 29.7% 30
11 31.2% 32.9
10 32.3% 34.9
9 33.1% 36.3
8 35.4% 38.9
7 37.3% 43.8
6 41.5% 48
[Source: http://www.racerate.com]

Roger Biggs’ figures IN RED are very similar for Fast and Good < 1700 metres

Obviously 6-10 is where we should be concentrating.

4 Sex and Days Since Last Race [DSL]

DISTANCE: <1400m

DSL F&M CG&H

<1400m <=7 days 51.25 52.5
1400-1900m <=7 days 46.8 48.11
>1900m <=7 days 38 43.9%
[Source: Adventures in Handicapping by R Biggs]

It seems the fit boys have a clear advantage over the longer distances.

Free Form Guides

http://www.racingandsports.com.au/en/form-guide/

and/or

http://www.punters.com.au/form-guide/
 Track Selection

Some tracks are more conducive than others to favourites winning or losing.

FOR LAYING: we should be concentrating on the ones with under 30% favourite strike rates --
the lower the better.

FOR BACKING: we should be concentrating on the ones with well over 30% favourite strike
rates -- the higher the better.

We now offer separately:

UK RACE TRACK STATISTICS

AUSTRALIAN/NZ RACE TRACK STATISTICS

 UK RACE TRACK STATISTICS
I recommend you use this site where you will find all the tracks listed:

http://www.horseracebase.com/horse
http://www.horseracebase.com/horse-racing-tracks.php

Data Panels
in the right-hand
hand column of the track listing you’ll find the Statistics link for each track.

Clicking ASCOT reveals two panels.

The one on the left is where you can tweak statistical optio
options for Ascot:

And the right-hand

hand panel then shows the favourite statistics according to your specified settings:

Meanwhile, although a bit dated the following data could be helpful, if only on a comparison basis to
see if trends have held up with more recent statistics from the above site.
 Favourites (2000-2007) in Handicap Chases

TRACK RACES WINS STRIKE RATE RETURN TO SP

Aintree 63 19 30.20% 120.00%
Ascot 58 19 32.80% 104.90%
Ayr 103 29 28.20% 82.30%
Bangor 104 22 21.20% 70.90%
Carlisle 94 26 27.70% 89.10%
Cartmel 37 10 27.00% 83.40%
Catterick 55 17 30.90% 103.30%
Cheltenham 116 29 25.00% 103.30%
Chepstow 115 34 29.60% 91.30%
Doncaster 50 12 24.00% 81.20%
Exeter 104 24 23.10% 73.50%
Fakenham 82 26 31.70% 96.10%
Folkestone 72 20 27.80% 100.20%
Fontwell 154 40 26.00% 80.70%
Haydock 96 26 27.10% 83.90%
Hereford 109 25 22.90% 78.20%
Hexham 85 19 22.40% 75.70%
Huntingdon 142 42 29.60% 90.60%
Kelso 104 28 26.90% 78.10%
Kempton 67 25 37.30% 133.40%
Leicester 85 20 23.50% 63.00%
Lingfield 25 6 24.00% 74.00%
Ludlow 92 24 26.10% 86.20%
MarketRasen 182 58 31.90% 98.00%
Musselburgh 45 11 24.40% 65.80%
Newbury 89 27 30.30% 105.10%
Newcastle 96 30 31.30% 96.50%
NewtonAbbot 163 48 29.40% 89.60%
Perth 98 23 23.50% 73.70%
Plumpton 113 28 24.80% 72.20%
Sandown 89 16 18.00% 54.70%
Sedgefield 151 48 31.80% 96.40%
Southwell 100 31 31.00% 89.10%
Stratford 150 42 28.00% 91.80%
Taunton 76 23 30.30% 96.60%
Towcester 126 31 24.60% 77.10%
Uttoxeter 177 54 30.50% 99.60%
Warwick 87 31 35.60% 116.60%
Wetherby 136 28 20.60% 65.00%
Wincanton 149 55 36.90% 111.10%
Windsor 8 5 62.50% 192.90%
Wolverhampton 9 2 22.20% 59.70%
Worcester 110 23 20.90% 71.40%
 Favourites (2000-2007) in Handicap Hurdles

Aintree 53 9 17.00% 60.10%

Ascot 44 8 18.20% 51.30%
Ayr 81 26 32.10% 92.20%
Bangor 109 25 22.90% 79.00%
Carlisle 55 12 21.80% 67.80%
Cartmel 28 5 17.90% 64.70%
Catterick 44 8 18.20% 58.10%
Cheltenham 105 31 29.50% 111.20%
Chepstow 90 26 28.90% 88.00%
Doncaster 42 12 28.60% 101.90%
Exeter 114 39 34.20% 100.70%
Fakenham 43 12 27.90% 95.50%
Folkestone 50 17 34.00% 99.80%
Fontwell 155 42 27.10% 91.20%
Haydock 96 29 30.20% 101.90%
Hereford 90 28 31.10% 101.30%
Hexham 94 27 28.70% 87.00%
Huntingdon 149 38 25.50% 83.10%
Kelso 112 31 27.70% 83.20%
Kempton 69 17 24.60% 86.20%
Leicester 43 9 20.90% 61.40%
Lingfield 17 3 17.60% 56.60%
Ludlow 92 20 21.70% 66.10%
MarketRasen 148 48 32.40% 110.60%
Musselburgh 59 14 23.70% 76.90%
Newbury 61 18 29.50% 113.60%
Newcastle 65 16 24.60% 72.10%
NewtonAbbot 154 44 28.60% 77.90%
Perth 115 31 27.00% 85.20%
Plumpton 100 31 31.00% 96.50%
Sandown 68 16 23.50% 85.40%
Sedgefield 149 50 33.60% 108.40%
Southwell 81 22 27.20% 85.70%
Stratford 120 33 27.50% 91.10%
Taunton 93 21 22.60% 61.70%
Towcester 78 24 30.80% 91.70%
Uttoxeter 166 49 29.50% 93.80%
Warwick 89 32 36.00% 123.10%
Wetherby 128 45 35.20% 110.60%
Wincanton 136 30 22.10% 73.00%
Windsor 7 4 57.10% 205.40%
Wolverhampton 6 1 16.70% 54.20%
Worcester 121 31 25.60% 81.10%
 AUSTRALIAN RACE TRACK STATISTICS

The following tables are the last three years' winning strike rates of favourites (or equal) JULY 21
2010 - JULY 21 2013 at various Australian and New Zealand race tracks (TAB MEETINGS ONLY)

These Australian and New Zealand track tables are used with the kind permission of Peter Kaye of:
http://www.racerate.com

Do visit his site. It is packed with information he’s worked hard to produce over many years.

Furthermore, he’s very honest and very responsive to queries.

Amongst his many articles and statistics you are highly likely to find more data that will help you
with devising your own backing strategies as well ones suggested here.
Favourites Recent Strike Rates South Australia
Favourites Recent Strike Rates Western Australia
Favourites Recent Strike Rates New South Wales
Favourites Recent Strike Rates Queensland
Favourites Recent Strike Rates: ACT NT Tasmania
Favourites Recent Strike Rates: Victoria
 Favourites Recent Strike Rates New Zealand

These are the last three years' winning strike rates of favourites (or equal)

JULY 21 2010 - JULY 21 2013 at various New Zealand race tracks

 The Final Word
Here are some recommended additions to your punting toolkit.

1 Dutch-5 For Dutch Book Betting

Watch Steve’s video of him making a good profit on three races with the much-requested Dutch 5
software . He shows how you can bet up to 5 selections at a time, but make a profit AND recover all
bets when one of them wins.

He also demonstrates its unique feature that allows it to continually remain visible on the desktop.

As you’ll see, that’s extremely helpful when trying to juggle several other programs and web pages
to get the bets on in time: http://www.dutch-5.com/

2 Spread-5 For Controlled Outlays

Ideal for punters who prefer casual, low-stress punting.

Simply plug in how much you want to spend on any race or sporting event -- the software does the
rest.

It calculates how much to bet on up to 5 selections for an event. (Or fewer, of course.)

Use Spread-5 on dogs, horses and certain sports outcomes like football correct score, tennis sets
betting and so on.

And as a superb bonus every purchase includes a very detailed Strategy Suggestions eBook, offering
several potentially profitable ways to use Spread-5 on horses, tennis, football and more besides.

Lots of easy-to-follow examples to get you up-n-profiting within a matter of minutes.

It alone is easily worth the modest purchase price: http://www.spread-5.com/

3 A Sound Laying Method

Identifying False Favourites (the ones with only a small winning chance despite the hype) can help
swell the bank balance because of their high failure rate and low liabilities.

This identification requires skill and know-how you will learn from False Favourites written by very
respected English author and Betfair trainer, Jon Burgess.

The book’s principles are applicable to any racing jurisdiction or country -- no matter where you live
or bet, in other words.

Very strongly recommended from here: http://361d9m49rjjz6of-mhv9u21h7w.hop.clickbank.net/

4 International Trifecta (Tricast) Betting
This valuable eBook details many tried and tested betting strategies you will need to extract your
share of the huge, international pools of money available for tricast / trifecta betting -- all from the
comfort of your own home.

International Trifecta Betting includes all the international links needed to give you a big edge in
profiting from what is really the last frontier.

Right now tricast betting is still largely unexploited by punters who have been put off by high
outlays.

No longer high!! ITB reveals a clever strategy to bet for a fraction of the normal cost -- and yet
still make good profits: http://www.internationaltrifectabetting.com/

5 Compound Magic
This unique software is specifically written for betting low-priced events such tennis, some team
sports and place betting.

It is especially useful for place betting (coming 1st, 2nd or 3rd) the horses and greyhounds.

This software is UNIQUE because it pays you a profit, as well as rolling over the balance of your
winnings to the next event.

When starting a new betting plan only the very first, flat bet comes from your pocket.

There are two versions: Standard and PRO

Standard Basic Version: Click here and watch the video to see it in action.

PRO Version: Click here and watch the video to see it in action.

The PRO version includes a Betting Strategy eBook, our unique Cascade Betting Strategy and the
ability to save up to 20 on-going betting plans.

6 Maria 5
Our lay betting, money management software is just what you need to help keep your laying
liabilities under control.

With it you can lay up to five events or selections at a time.

Simply key in the lay prices and your bets are calculated using Maria’s percentages, to control your
liabilities.
 In that way, Maria (well known to many UK punters) built her bank from £3000 to around £100,000
in about 12 months.

Although Maria revealed her betting strategy she did not reveal her lay selection methods.

Therefore, your purchase of Maria-5 includes the option of also buying our eBook of 15 successful
Lay Strategies, suitable for both UK and/or Australian horse racing.

But if you already have a satisfactory laying system of your own, then simply choose the purchase
option without the eBook included.

Click here to take a look.

Stay Up-To-Date
Finally, you can keep yourself up-to-date with products, articles and even free stuff here:

https://sites.google.com/site/bettingtoolbox/