Market

Macroscope
October 2021
Investment Products
Index

Contents Page No

From the MD & CEO’s Desk…………………………………………………….. 1

Equity Outlook ……………………………………………………………………. 2-5

Fixed Income Outlook …………………………………………………………… 6-9

Deep dive – Rising US yields v/s India Investor returns……………………… 10-14

Dots to Join……….……………………………………………………………….. 15-16

Index Performance ……….……………………………………………………… 17

Macro Economic Indicators ……………………………………………………… 18-19

India Horizons Portfolios …………...……………………………………………. 20-21

Crossword …………...……………………………………………………………. 22

MARKET MACROSCOPE | INVESTMENT PRODUCTS | OCTOBER 2021

From the MD & CEO’s desk

Dear Investors,

We don’t have to be smarter than the rest. We have to be more disciplined than the rest
-Warren Buffet

I recently wrote an article for the Economic Times on the importance of controlling one’s emotions
while trading and how a trader might achieve this (read the article here). A trader needs to cultivate
habits to develop emotional resilience just like top athletes do in order to achieve peak performance.
Traders should treat themselves as entrepreneurs with a well-defined business plan, risk profiling
and defined capital risk limits.

Traders should acknowledge emotions and develop practices to control their emotions. Market
research is crucial and will help understand the investment prospects, return expectations and risks.
Traders should learn from history that markets tend to recover even from large losses and a
diversified asset portfolio will limit losses. Engaging in non-market activities like exercising, creative
activities and reading can help calm the mind and prevent getting fixated on the markets. Traders will
probably need these qualities in the near term as the risk factors in the markets rise.

The market has a lot on its plate. The US Fed tapering, high inflation prints in developed economies,
natural gas shortages, China’s power shortage and China Evergrande Group’s likely default on its
USD 300 bn debt. Read about these in our monthly equity and debt market outlooks. In addition, the
Macroscope contains the regular “Dots to Join” and Crossword sections.

This month's Deep Dive section analyses the impact of global and domestic bond yield movement on
bond portfolio returns for domestic and foreign investors. The study has covered data for last two
decades which includes multiple economic cycles and major events and thus provides valuable
insights for investors. The section also covers correlation analysis of bond yields with equity market.

India’s Covid vaccination drive picked up momentum with an estimated 23 cr doses likely to be
administered in September compared to 18.0 cr doses in August. On this cheerful note, wishing you
all successful investing.

Yours Sincerely

Dhiraj Relli
MD and CEO – HDFC Securities

MARKET MACROSCOPE | INVESTMENT PRODUCTS | OCTOBER 2021 01

Equity Outlook

Macroeconomic Review:

Domestic review:

ICRA revised its India GDP growth estimate for FY21 to 9% from 8.5% earlier. Central government’s
direct tax receipts till Sept 22 were Rs. 6.4 lac cr compared to Rs. 4.4 lac cr a year ago and Rs. 5.5
lac cr in the same period in FY19. This was well ahead of the government’s budget estimates. Press
reports suggested that India aims to narrow its FY22 budget deficit to 6.3% of GDP from 6.8%
estimated in the budget. The reports further suggested that central government would not be cutting
any spending and the entire improvement would be due to buoyant tax collections.

Rainfall in the month of September made up for much of the deficit that had been witnessed till
August. IMD said that India received normal rainfall during the June-Sept period. India’s CPI retail
inflation eased to 5.3% in August compared to 5.59% in July. India’s 8 core industries expanded by
11.6% in August and the output was 3.9% higher than in the pre-Covid period of August 2019. All of
the above data suggests that the economy continues to recover from the second wave of Covid-19
infections.

Global Review:

ECB announced that it would slow down purchases under its Pandemic Emergency Purchase
Program (PEPP). ECB President, Christine Lagarde, insisted that this was “recalibrating” rather than
“tapering”. The ECB kept its PEPP timeline the same (to end by March 2022) and said that total
purchases too would remain at EUR 1.85 trillion. The ECB upgraded its Euro Zone growth forecast
for CY21 to 5% from a previous 4.6% estimate. It also increased its inflation forecast for CY21 to
2.2% compared to its June forecast of 1.9%.

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said the central bank could begin scaling back asset
purchases as soon as November and complete the process by mid-2022. Jerome Powell also
insisted that the economic recovery still needs to strengthen before the US Federal Reserve
increases interest rates. Markets shrugged off the news regarding the taper. The US Federal
Reserve said that half of the 18 members of its Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) now expect
to raise rates at least once in CY22 compared to 7 members earlier who said so.

The US unemployment rate fell to 5.2% in August from 5.4% in July, well below the peak rate of
14.8% in April 2020. The jobs growth was disappointing but was likely impacted by a surge in Covid
cases in the US. Placement firm Indeed estimates that there are about 10.5 million openings now,
likely a record for the U.S. labor market.

A lot of press articles were focused last fortnight on the liquidity crunch being faced by China
Evergrande Group, China’s largest real estate developer. Its attempts to raise liquidity by selling real
estate inventory at deeply discounted prices failed and its apartment sales were down sharply in
August. The markets currently appear to support the thesis that the Chinese government will step in
to prevent contagion. However, in the longer term, difficulties at Evergrande might impact other real
estate developers. In such a scenario, real estate construction and China’s GDP growth could be
negatively impacted over the next couple of quarters. This is a risk that needs to be monitored
closely.

China is also facing a severe power shortage as demand spiked because of economic activity. At the
same time, the Chinese government is asking provincial governments to reduce carbon emissions
and meet their targets on the same. China is likely to prioritize power supply to residents and offices
over power guzzling sectors such as aluminum and copper production. This could result in further
supply side disruptions in the months to come.

MARKET MACROSCOPE | INVESTMENT PRODUCTS | OCTOBER 2021 02

Equity Outlook

Equity Markets Review:

Indian equity markets continued to rally in September. Nifty gained 2.8%, while the BSE S&P Midcap
and Smallcap Indices gained 5.9% and 4.3% respectively.

Nifty Media, Nifty Realty and S&P BSE Consumer Durables indices were the best performing
sectoral indices gaining 33.5%, 32.8% and 10.7% respectively this month. Nifty Metal, Nifty Pharma
and Nifty IT indices were the worst performing indices with returns of (-1.8%), +0.8%, and +1.3%
respectively.

Governments’ relief package for the Telecom sector led to a sharp rally in the beaten down Telecom
sector stocks. Investor activism by institutional investors resulted in a sharp rally in Zee
Entertainment and Dish TV. PSU stocks also rallied sharply as they offered significant value relative
to the market. The best and worst performing stocks during Sept 2021 from the NSE 500 universe
are shown in the table below.

Best Performing Stocks Among NSE 500 in September 2021

Large Cap Mid Cap Small Cap
Stock Name Returns Stock Name Returns Stock Name Returns
Indus Towers Ltd. 43.5% Vodafone Idea Ltd. 94.8% Dish TV India Ltd. 62.8%
Zee Entertainment Enterprises Gujarat Alkalies &
DLF Ltd. 30.2% 76.4% 47.6%
Ltd. Chemicals Ltd.
Coal India Ltd. 27.0% Godrej Properties Ltd. 55.2% Delta Corp Ltd. 45.3%
NTPC Ltd. 22.3% JSW Energy Ltd. 47.3% Chalet Hotels Ltd. 40.5%
Prestige Estates
IDBI Bank Ltd. 20.4% Oil India Ltd. 43.1% 39.4%
Projects Ltd.

Worst Performing Stocks NSE 500 in September 2021

Large Cap Mid Cap Small Cap
Stock Name Returns Stock Name Returns Stock Name Returns
Mahindra Holidays &
Tata Steel Ltd. -11.1% Bank of India -16.5% -22.6%
Resorts India Ltd.
Apollo Hospitals Computer Age
-9.7% Sanofi India Ltd. -13.6% -20.5%
Enterprise Ltd. Management Services
SBI Cards and
-9.7% Gujarat Gas Ltd. -11.8% Aegis Logistics Ltd. -14.5%
Payment Services Ltd.
Bharat Petroleum KNR Constructions
-8.3% Alkyl Amines Chemicals Ltd. -10.6% -13.7%
Corporation Ltd. Ltd.
JK Lakshmi Cement
Adani Enterprises Ltd. -7.6% Gujarat State Petronet Ltd. -9.8% -12.9%
Ltd.
Source: NSE

Flows: FPIs were net buyers of Indian equities in cash to the tune of Rs. 13,154 cr in the month of
September 2021 while DIIs were net buyers to the tune of Rs. 5,948 cr. (Source: NSDL,
Moneycontrol.com).

IPO Review:
September 2021 was a muted month for IPOs with 4 companies raising Rs. 3,918 cr. Paras Defence
received a total subscription of 304x but the IPO size was quite small at Rs. 171 cr. Paras Defence
and AMI Organics had listing gains of 168% and 48% respectively, while the other 2 listings gave
muted returns. As per press reports, FY22 is likely to be a record year for merchant bankers in terms
of fees because of the number of IPOs likely to be concluded.

MARKET MACROSCOPE | INVESTMENT PRODUCTS | OCTOBER 2021 03

Equity Outlook

The table below summarizes the IPOs which either closed or listed during September 2021:

Listing %
Size of IPO price Overall QIP
Issue close date open Inc/(Dec)
Name of the company IPO (Rs. (Rs. Per Subscripti Subscripti
Date (Rs. Per from issue
Cr) share) on (times) on (times)
share) price
Vijaya Diagnostic Centre Ltd 1,894 3-Sep-21 531 542.3 2.1% 4.5 13.1
AMI Organics Limited 570 3-Sep-21 610 902.0 47.9% 64.5 86.6
Sansera Engineering Limited 1,283 16-Sep-21 744 811.4 9.1% 11.5 26.5
Paras Defence and Space
171 23-Sep-21 175 469.0 168% 304.3 169.7
Technologies Limited
Source: NSE
*Note: AB Sun Life AMC IPO would close on October 1, 2021

Recommended reading for the month:

This month’s recommended reading is an article titled “Goldman flags $8.2 trillion threat worse than China
Evergrande” published on Forbes.com. (read the article here)
Local government financing vehicles (LGFVs) have $8.2 trillion of outstanding liabilities up from $2.5 trillion in 2013.
The debt now amounts to 52% of China’s GDP. Japan’s $1.75 trillion Government Pension Investment Fund,
the world’s largest, now says it won’t even include yuan-denominated Chinese sovereign debt in its portfolio.

Outlook:

Global macroeconomic issues highlighted in the earlier part of the note could impact the markets this
month. The markets are currently pricing in a benign outcome for the macro risks. Any significant
adverse developments in these variables could result in higher volatility in the markets.

This month the markets would be focused on quarterly earnings releases. We note that in Q1FY22
most of the companies had performed largely in line with expectations. Analysts have further
upgraded earnings expectations as stock prices have climbed and economic activity has
strengthened. This poses a much tougher hurdle for companies to be able to beat expectations.

The outlook is murky for the small finance banks and NBFC sector as the impact of lockdowns and
expiration of moratoriums might impact asset quality. We expect earnings across other sectors to be
broadly in line with market expectations during the quarter given that all macroeconomic data pointed
to strong recovery from the second wave of Covid-19.

The table below shows select “buy” and “reduce”/“sell” rated stocks as rated by HDFC Securities’
Institutional Equities (HSL IE) team. The full list of stocks rated and their target prices can be
accessed on our website.
HDFC Sec Institutional Equities: Select "Buy" rated stocks
Name Industry Target price CMP % Upside
Gail Natural Gas - Transmission 195 159 22.72%
JK Lakshmi Cement 850 618 37.50%
Kalpataru Power Transmission Capital Goods 590 404 46.00%
Maruti Suzuki Auto - OEM 8,190 7,338 11.60%
SBI Life Insurance 1,350 1,215 11.10%
(Source: HSL IE)

MARKET MACROSCOPE | INVESTMENT PRODUCTS | OCTOBER 2021 04

Equity Outlook

HDFC Sec Institutional Equities: Select “Sell/Reduce" rated stocks

Name Industry Target price CMP % Downside
AU Small Finance Bank Banks - PVT 1,046 1,164 -10.10%
Avenue Supermart Retail & Fashion 2,260 4,250 -46.80%
Interglobe Aviation Aviation 1,575 2,021 -22.10%
Jubilant Foodworks Food Services 2,850 4,040 -29.40%
L&T Technologies IT Services 3,035 4,697 -35.40%
(Source: HSL IE)

The table below gives select positional buy calls issued by the HDFC Retail Research team:
Target 2
Company Name Reco date Entry price CMP % Upside
(Rs/share)
Sonata Software 22-Sep-21 917 893 1,099 23.10%
NBCC 24-Sep-21 47 48 56 16.20%
J. B. Chemicals 24-Sep-21 1,795 1,891 2,200 16.30%
Godrej Industries 04-Aug-21 585 574 720 25.40%
(Source: HSL Retail Research)

All of the above institutional equities reports and retail research calls can be accessed on our
website.

Risks:

The risks in the market are now increasing. Taper, supply disruptions, higher energy prices and
Evergrande default are near term risks. These risks appear to be within acceptable range in the near
term but need to be monitored closely for any negative surprises. The longer term risks relate to
inflation and economic activity. The global economic recovery appears to be on a strong footing.
However, Chinese economic activity needs to be monitored closely. Valuations in equity markets do
not provide any cushion for negative surprises.

MARKET MACROSCOPE | INVESTMENT PRODUCTS | OCTOBER 2021 05

Fixed Income Outlook

India’s 10yr bond yield remained volatile because of a mix of domestic and global triggers

During the month of Sep 2021, the 10yr G-sec yield remained relatively volatile touching a low of
6.12% but rose towards month end and closed flat MoM at 6.22% as of Sep 30, 2021. The volatility
was caused by a mix of domestic and global factors. On the positive side, inclusion of benchmark
securities in G-SAP auctions, government’s improved fiscal position, increased FPI participation and
fall in CPI inflation supported bond yields. However, sharp rise in crude oil prices, higher global yields
due to the hawkish monetary policy stance of the US Fed and RBI’s gradual liquidity normalisation
stance led to a rise in bond yields.

India’s 10yr G-sec yield remained volatile in September

6.40

6.30
6.22
6.20

6.10 6.05

6.00

5.90

5.80

Source: Financial Benchmarks India Private Limited (FBIL)

Last 7 weekly G-sec auctions did not witness any devolvement or cancellation (which had become a
regular affair in the recent past) and RBI accepted additional amount of Rs. 10,363 cr, against notified
amount, through greenshoe option. This was led by improved investor demand/sentiment and reduced
direct intervention by RBI to anchor G-sec yields.

In the last two tranches (worth Rs. 30,000 cr) of G-SAP 2.0 auction, RBI decided to include an
equivalent sell leg to the auctions making its bond purchase program liquidity-neutral. Furthermore,
with rise in auction size of variable rate reverse repo (VRRR) auctions to Rs. 4 lakh cr by end of Sep-
21 and cut-off level for 7-day tenure at 3.99% (almost touching repo level of 4%) in recent auction
signifies the RBI’s gradual stance of liquidity normalisation.

Government announced its H2 FY22 borrowing target at Rs. 5.03 lakh cr, after borrowing Rs. 7.02
lakh cr in H1 FY22. Prima facie, this keeps the total borrowing for FY22 unchanged at Rs. 12.05 lakh
cr (as budgeted). However, H2 FY22 borrowing numbers include the GST compensation loan to be
provided to states, estimated at Rs. 84,000 cr in H2 FY22. Earlier, government had planned to borrow
additional Rs. 1.59 lakh cr to make up for the shortfall in GST compensation payable to states. Out of
this, government has already paid out Rs. 75,000 cr to states in H1 FY22.

The effective H2 FY22 borrowing for financing the fiscal deficit is lower at Rs. 4.2 lakh cr, considering
the government has subsumed GST compensation cess related borrowing worth Rs. 1.59 lakh cr in its
FY22 borrowing plan. This reflects the improved fiscal position of the government as revenue receipts
have been tracking higher than budgeted estimates so far. Announcement of lower borrowings was
expected to cheer the bond market. However, the positive sentiment got nullified by rise in crude oil
prices and global yields.

MARKET MACROSCOPE | INVESTMENT PRODUCTS | OCTOBER 2021 06

Fixed Income Outlook

India’s CPI inflation eased further in August with softening in food prices

CPI headline inflation eased further to 5.3% YoY in Aug-21 from 5.6% in the previous month and
remained below the RBI’s upper threshold of 6.0% for 2nd consecutive month. The moderation in
inflation was led by softening in food prices with drop in vegetable and cereal prices. Sequentially
(MoM), CPI inflation eased to a 5-month low of 0.25% in Aug-21 vs. 0.74% in Jul-21.

Core CPI inflation (excluding food and fuel) also eased to 5.8% YoY in Aug-21 from 5.9% in Jul-21 on
account of moderation in personal care and effects. Fuel inflation rose to 12.9% YoY in Aug-21 vs
12.4% in Jul-21, reflecting higher LPG and kerosene prices.

As per HDFC Bank research, headline CPI inflation for Sep-21 is expected to come in at a 5-month
low of 4.35%, down from 5.3% in Aug. The subsequent prints are also expected to remain subdued at
least till the end of this calendar year. Despite elevated fuel and core inflation, lower than earlier
expected food price momentum and a high base from last year are likely to keep headline prints in
check.

India’s CPI inflation moderated further in August

8.0 7.3 7.6 2.0
6.7 6.9
7.0 6.3 6.3 1.5
6.0 5.5 5.6 5.3
5.0 1.0
5.0 4.6 4.2
4.1 0.5
4.0
0.0
3.0
2.0 -0.5
1.0 -1.0
0.0 -1.5

Jul-21
Jun-21
Aug-20

Nov-20

Apr-21

May-21

Aug-21
Sep-20

Dec-20

Jan-21

Feb-21

Mar-21
Oct-20

CPI YoY (LHS) CPI MoM (RHS)

Source: Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MOSPI)

US 10yr bond yield rose sharply in September as US Fed turned hawkish with tapering signal

US 10yr bond yield rose sharply by 18 bps MoM during September and closed at 1.49%. The US Fed,
in its latest monetary policy meeting, signalled that a scale back in its asset purchases may be
warranted soon.

1.80
1.70
1.60 1.49
1.50 1.46
1.40
1.30
1.20
1.10
1.00

Source: investing.com

MARKET MACROSCOPE | INVESTMENT PRODUCTS | OCTOBER 2021 07

Fixed Income Outlook

Fed Chair Jerome Powell said the central bank could start tapering by Nov-21 and complete the
process by the middle of CY22. He further added that the timing and pace of taper is not intended to
signal the lift off in interest rates. The latter is likely to happen only once the taper process is complete
and requires much higher economic thresholds to be reached.

The Fed’s dot plot (expectation of interest rate changes) highlighted that an increasing number of
members now expect a rate hike in CY22 compared to the earlier median forecast of a rate hike
beginning only in CY23. The median projection by FOMC members for the Fed’s fund rate is at 1% by
the end of CY23 (up from 0.6% in Jun-21 meeting) and at 1.8% by end of CY24.

Source: Bloomberg

US CPI inflation eased to 5.3% YoY in Aug-21 from 5.4% in Jul-21 suggesting that inflation has
probably peaked. Core Inflation (CPI excluding food and energy components) eased to 4.0% YoY,
lower than consensus expectations of 4.2% (Jul-21: 4.3%). On a sequential basis (MoM), CPI rose by
0.3% in Aug vs. 0.5% in July. Price spikes associated with reopening of the economy are beginning to
wane but supply disruptions are likely to keep inflation elevated in the remaining months of 2021.

US CPI Inflation fell marginally in August

6.0 5.4 5.4 1.0
5.3
5.0
5.0 0.8
4.2
4.0
0.6
3.0 2.6
0.4
2.0 1.7
1.3 1.4 1.2 1.2 1.4 1.4

1.0 0.2

0.0 0.0
Jul-21
Apr-21

May-21

Jun-21
Nov-20
Aug-20

Sep-20

Dec-20

Feb-21

Aug-21
Jan-21

Mar-21
Oct-20

CPI YoY (LHS) CPI MoM (RHS)

Source: tradingeconomics.com

MARKET MACROSCOPE | INVESTMENT PRODUCTS | OCTOBER 2021 08

Fixed Income Outlook

Outlook

In the paragraphs below, we list various global and domestic factors which will likely influence the
bond markets in the near to medium term.

Globally central banks have turned hawkish in their monetary policy stance with improving economic
recovery and rising inflation. This has led to a sharp rise in global bond yields. China’s cash strapped
Evergrande Group’s missed payments on bank loans and bonds have kept investors guessing and
sparked concerns on China’s financial system and its contagion effects around the world. Crude oil
price breached $ 80 per barrel mark recently (a 3-year high) raising concerns on rise in import bill,
inflation and forex volatility.

Enhanced quantum of VRRR auctions to Rs. 4 lakh cr coupled with a rise in cut-off levels close to
repo rate, regular shorter tenure (3-7 days) VRRR auctions being conducted by RBI to absorb excess
liquidity, and recent liquidity-neutral bond purchase programme signal RBI’s discomfort with surplus
liquidity and its gradual liquidity normalisation stance.

In the upcoming Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting on 8th Oct 2021, we expect the MPC to
maintain status quo on policy rate and accommodative stance. Bond market will watch out for RBI’s
guidance on liquidity stance and continuation of bond purchase programme to support the bond
yields. Recent drop in CPI inflation shall provide some comfort to MPC members in maintaining its
accommodative stance for longer.

We expect bond yields to rise gradually in the medium-term given the huge G-sec borrowings in FY22.
With enhanced VRRR auction amount and likely increase in auction tenure in near future, yield curve
is expected to flatten with rise in short-term rates to be relatively higher than rate increases at long end
of the curve.

The G-sec yield curve continues to remain quite steep up to 5yr segment and is relatively flat thereon.
Beyond the 10yr segment, the risk-reward scenario looks unfavourable at current juncture. Hence,
fixed income investors should avoid the long end of the curve. Steepness at the short end of the curve
provides lucrative opportunities to lock carry by investing up to 3yr segment with low to moderate
interest rate risk. The steepness in the curve shall compensate for any MTM losses in the near to
medium term.

MARKET MACROSCOPE | INVESTMENT PRODUCTS | OCTOBER 2021 09

Deep Dive – Rising US yields v/s India Investor returns

Introduction:

Since the Global financial crisis in 2008, central banks across the globe have kept interest rates low
and have regularly purchased bonds to pump in liquidity. From a high of 2.4% in Apr-2019, Fed Funds
rate has been at 0-0.25% since Apr-2020. US Fed currently buys $120 bn of government
bonds/mortgage securities every month. Elsewhere in Europe, situation is not too different where
ECB’s average monthly bond purchase has been €74 bn since Mar-2020. The result is that $14.8 tn
(21.6% of total debt issued) worth of bonds across the world trade at negative yields (e.g German 10yr
bond currently yields -0.24%).

Covid Pandemic not only delayed the normalization, but actually helped in creating even more
liquidity. US Fed balance sheet today has ballooned from $4.2 tn to $8.5 tn in the last 3 years.

Covid crisis era monetary policies have to normalize at some point. The central banks will normalize
through two means – reducing bond buy back and increasing policy rates. While the latter is some
distance away, the former is expected to start soon (in the case of US, as early as November). The
end effect of both actions is likely to be the same – rising yield.

As per projections of FOMC members, median Fed funds rate is expected to be at 1.0% and 1.8% by
end of 2023 and 2024 respectively.

This is the largest shadow looming on the global markets. Investors are worried about the adverse
impact of rising yields on the financial assets. After all, we did go through the Taper Tantrum in 2013.

So in this deep dive, we have tried to analyze the effect of rising yields on equity and debt markets (in
India and US). Specifically, we asked ourselves the following questions –

1. What is the impact of change in US yields on Indian debt markets?

2. What impact does the yield difference (India minus US yields) have on future bond returns?
3. What is the impact of change in US yields on Indian equity markets?
4. What is the impact of change in Indian yields on Indian equity markets?

Approach:

We have analyzed data over the last two decades covering multiple economic cycles and major
economic events to answer the above questions

To understand the impact on debt investors, we have taken the MTM gains/losses in the 10 year G-
sec. While the total returns that an investor gets is always accrual + MTM, it is largely the change in
price (MTM) that is a good indicator of the impact on the bond returns.

MARKET MACROSCOPE | INVESTMENT PRODUCTS | OCTOBER 2021 10

Deep Dive – Rising US yields v/s India Investor returns

Section 1 – Domestic Debt Investor:

Section 1.1 - Impact of rising US yields (10 Yr) on India debt return
(For each month, we see the next 1 year change in US yield and compare it to the next 1 year MTM in
India 10 year G-sec)
Chart 1 – US yield change vs India 10 Yr G-sec MTM change
200 30.0%
Change in US bond Yields

India 10 Yr Gsec MTM Change

150
100 20.0%
50
10.0%
0
-50
0.0%
-100
-150 -10.0%
-200
-250 -20.0%
Jun-01

Jun-03

Jun-05

Jun-07

Jun-09

Jun-11

Jun-13

Jun-15

Jun-17

Jun-19
Oct-00

Oct-02

Oct-04

Oct-06

Oct-08

Oct-10

Oct-12

Oct-14

Oct-16

Oct-18
Feb-00

Feb-02

Feb-04

Feb-06

Feb-08

Feb-10

Feb-12

Feb-14

Feb-16

Feb-18

Feb-20
Change IN US Bond Yield (bps) Indian 10 Yr Gsec MTM Change
Source: Investing.com

Observation:
The lines have tended to move in opposite directions. There is an inverse correlation of 40% which
means that when the US yields have gone up, Indian bond investors have suffered MTM losses
Following Table gives the same data in a different form –
No. of % of Median Debt MTM Returns
Change in 10 Yr US Yield (bps)
Months Observations (next 12 months)
<-100 38 15% 7%
-100 to 0 118 48% 2%
0 to 100 81 33% -2%
>100 11 4% -4%

Conclusion:
The past suggests that rising US yields have coincided with negative MTM returns for domestic bond
investors. With subdued starting yields the impact of MTM on the overall debt returns can be higher

Section 1.2 - Impact of India G-sec yield premium (over US) on future India debt return
(For each month, we calculate the difference between India 10 yr G-sec yield and US 10 yr G-sec
yield. We then plot it against the next 12 month MTM returns from India 10 yr G-sec)
Chart 2 – India yield premium vs Next 1 year MTM change in Indian debt
8.0% 30.0%
20.0%
India 10 Yr Gsec MTM

6.0%
India Yield Premium

10.0%
4.0%
0.0%
2.0% -10.0%
0.0% -20.0%
Jun-15
Jun-01

Jun-03

Jun-05

Jun-07

Jun-09

Jun-11

Jun-13

Jun-17

Jun-19
Oct-00

Oct-02

Feb-04
Oct-04

Oct-06

Oct-08

Oct-10

Oct-12

Oct-14

Oct-16

Oct-18
Feb-00

Feb-02

Feb-06

Feb-08

Feb-10

Feb-12

Feb-14

Feb-16

Feb-18

Feb-20

India Gsec Yield Premium India 10 Yr Gsec MTM

Source: Investing.com

MARKET MACROSCOPE | INVESTMENT PRODUCTS | OCTOBER 2021 11

Deep Dive – Rising US yields v/s India Investor returns

Observation:
The lines have tended to move in same directions. There is a correlation of 35% which means that
when the India yield difference is high, investors have benefitted in the next 1 year in MTM gains

Following Table gives the same data in a different form –

No. of % of Median Debt MTM Returns
India Yield Premium
Months Observations (next 12 months)
<2% 15 6% -9%
2-4% 74 30% -1%
4-6% 127 51% 3%
>6% 32 13% 3%

Conclusion:
The past suggests that India’s yield premium has been beneficial for the debt investor. Whenever the
yield premium has been high, the future MTM gains have been good.
Currently, India yield premium is at 4.7% (US 10 Yr at 1.5% & India 10 Yr G-sec at 6.2%)

Section 1.3 – Combined impact of India’s yield premium and rise in US yields on India debt
return
As we see in section 1.1, rising US yields have meant negative MTMs for Indian debt investors.
Similarly, section 1.2 shows that higher starting India yield premiums have meant positive MTMs for
the investors.
However, given that we are in the middle of both these scenarios (potential rising US yield and high
India yield premium), which one takes precedence? To understand that, we further broke down the
data –

Combined impact of rising US yield and India’s yield premium on future debt return
(For each month, we consider the current difference between India 10 yr G-sec yield and US 10 yr G-
sec yield. We also consider the next 12 months rise in US yields. We find out the next 12 month MTM
returns on India 10 yr G-sec)
Differential 10 Yr - India v/s US
<2% 2-4% 4-6% >6%
Change in 10 Yr US
Yield (bps) Median Median Median Median
Count Count Count Count
Returns* Returns* Returns* Returns*

<-100 1 8% 13 9% 23 6% 1 7%
-100 to 0 9 -10% 27 -2% 63 4% 19 5%
0 to 100 5 -9% 29 -3% 39 -1% 8 -2%
>100 0 5 -4% 2 -3% 4 -3%
* Median debt MTM returns for next 12 months

Observation & Conclusion:

The table successfully parses the individual impact of the two forces. It tells us that when the US
yields have risen sharply, it has been able to nullify the benefit of a high India yield premium. Thus, at
times such as now, when the India yield premium is high but there is a likelihood of a rise in US yields,
debt investors generally end up with negative MTM returns.

MARKET MACROSCOPE | INVESTMENT PRODUCTS | OCTOBER 2021 12

Deep Dive – Rising US yields v/s India Investor returns

Section 2 – India Equity Investor

Section 2.1 - Impact of rising US yields on India equity return

(For each month, we see the next 1 year change in US yield and compare it to the next 1 year return
of Nifty)
Chart 3 - US yield change vs Nifty Returns
200 100.0%
Change in US bond Yields

100
50.0%

Nifty Returns
0
0.0%
-100
-50.0%
-200

-300 -100.0%

Jun-15
Jun-01

Jun-03

Jun-05

Jun-07

Jun-09

Jun-11

Jun-13

Jun-17

Jun-19
Oct-00

Oct-02

Oct-04

Oct-06

Oct-08

Oct-10

Oct-12

Oct-14

Oct-16

Oct-18
Feb-00

Feb-02

Feb-04

Feb-06

Feb-08

Feb-10

Feb-12

Feb-14

Feb-16

Feb-18

Feb-20
Change in US 10 yr Nifty Ret

Observation:
The lines have tended to move in same directions. There is a correlation of 54% which means that
when the US yields have gone up, Indian equity returns have generally been positive.

Following Table gives the same data in a different form –

No. of % of Median Debt MTM Returns
Change in 10 Yr US Yield (bps)
Months Observations (next 12 months)
<-100 38 15% -6%
-100 to 0 118 48% 9%
0 to 100 81 33% 22%
>100 11 4% 42%

Conclusion:
Quite counterintuitively, rising US yields have benefitted Indian equity investors. This is contrary to
perceived wisdom. Rising US yields have coincided with strong economic growth.

Section 2.2 - Impact of rising Indian yields on India equity return

(For each month, we see the next 1 year change in India 10 yr yield and compare it to the next 1 year
return in Nifty)

Chart 4 –Indian 10 Yr G-sec yield change vs Nifty Returns

300 100.0%
Change in Indian 10 Yr G-sec Yields

200
50.0%
Nifty Returns

100
0
0.0%
-100
-200 -50.0%
-300
-400 -100.0%
Jun-11

Jun-15
Jun-01

Jun-03

Jun-05

Jun-07

Jun-09

Jun-13

Jun-17

Jun-19
Oct-00

Oct-02

Oct-04

Oct-06

Oct-08

Oct-10

Oct-12

Oct-14

Oct-16

Oct-18
Feb-00

Feb-02

Feb-04

Feb-06

Feb-08

Feb-10

Feb-12

Feb-14

Feb-16

Feb-18

Feb-20

Change in Ind 10 yr Nifty Ret

MARKET MACROSCOPE | INVESTMENT PRODUCTS | OCTOBER 2021 13

Deep Dive – Rising US yields v/s India Investor returns

Observation:
The lines have tended to move in same directions. There is a correlation of 39% which means that
when the G-sec yields have gone up, Indian equity investors have made positive returns

Following Table gives the same data in a different form –

Change in 10 Yr Ind Yield No. of % of Median Debt MTM
(bps) Months Observations Returns (next 12 months)
<-150 31 13% -10%
-150 to 0 106 43% 10%
0 to 150 102 41% 19%
>150 9 4% 18%

Conclusion:
Similar to Section 2.1, quite unexpectedly, Indian equity investors have benefitted when the yields
have risen.
To complete this study, we also studied the impact of rising US yields on US equity markets. Again,
we found a high correlation of 56% over the last two decades with the following observation table.
Change in 10 Yr US No. of % of Median Debt MTM Returns (next
Yield (bps) Months Observations 12 months)
<-100 38 15% -1%
-100 to 0 118 48% 7%
0 to 100 81 33% 15%
>100 11 4% 22%

Key Takeaways:

1. We are at a crucial global economic juncture where yields are expected to rise in the near to
medium term

2. Rising US yields have coincided with negative MTMs for Indian debt investors

3. Current India yield premium over US debt is high. Historically, this has coincided with positive
MTM gains for domestic debt investor

4. However, the combined effect of 2 and 3 shows that rise in US yield has a greater negative effect
than the positive support from higher yield differential

5. Against the popular wisdom, rising US yields have historically meant higher returns for US and
Indian equity markets as it coincided with strong economic growth

6. Similarly, in the past, even rising Indian yields have coincided with higher equity returns

Note:
These can be called median conclusions from the vast data over the last two decades. It is foolhardy
to make hard conclusions as each scenario will need to be studied in isolation. However the study still
gives some interesting results – some expected and some counterintuitive.

MARKET MACROSCOPE | INVESTMENT PRODUCTS | OCTOBER 2021 14

Dots to Join

1. Debt Quality: Credit rating upgrades of corporates have outpaced downgrades in Q1 FY22,
indicating improved debt servicing ability. Icra upgraded ratings of 142 entities and downgraded 82
entities in April- June. Rising scale of operations and order book, longer track record of operations
and favourable corporate actions are some of the reasons for upgrades in Q1FY22.

Source – Mint

2. M-Cap to GDP Ratio: The market-cap of listed companies in India currently is 122% of India’s
latest annualised GDP. The ratio was 112% in June and 103% in March 2021. The ratio currently
is the highest since December 2008, when it was 150%. It is nearly 55% higher than the 15-year
median ratio of 79%.

Source – Business Standard

3. SIP Accounts: New Systematic Investment Planning (SIP) account registrations hit a record high
at 24.9 lakhs in August 2021. The number of registrations in August was 2.5x the long-term
average. For the 3rd consecutive month, SIP registrations were more than 20 lakhs, taking the total
tally of SIP accounts to 4.3 crore.

Source – Economic Times

MARKET MACROSCOPE | INVESTMENT PRODUCTS | OCTOBER 2021 15

Dots to Join
4. Global Equity Flows: Annualized inflows to global stocks in 2021 topped $1 trillion as per Bank of
America analysts. Global central banks have kept monetary policy accommodative to fight the
pandemic and have made record purchases of securities since the pandemic. The cumulative
inflows in global stocks between 2001 and 2020 were at $800 bn

Source: Market Watch

5. US Consumers’ Inflation Expectations: U.S. consumers’ inflation expectations rose to the

highest levels since 2013 as per a survey by Federal Reserve of New York. Year-ahead inflation
expectations increased for the 10th straight month to a median of 5.2% in August. Inflation
expectations over the next three years increased to a median of 4.0%. The higher inflation
expectations may result in a faster monetary policy normalization.
.

Source: Reuters

6. Chinese EV Fundraising: As per Qichacha report, investors have poured in more than 82 bn
Yuan ($12.7 bn) into 50 electric car-related projects in H1 2021. BYD topped the list by amount
raised. Nio shares surged more than 10x in 2020 after it received a capital injection of 7 bn Yuan
($1 bn) from state-led investors. Xpeng had also announced raising 500 mn Yuan from the
investment arm of Guangdong province.
Total Funds Raised by Chinese EVs ($ bn) 11.3
9.6

7.7

4.9
3.2

Li Auto WM Motors Xpeng Nio BYD

Source: South China Morning Post, CNBC

MARKET MACROSCOPE | INVESTMENT PRODUCTS | OCTOBER 2021 16

Index Performance

Index Performance (30-September-21)

Indices 1M 3M 6M 1Y 2Y 3Y 5Y 10 Y

NIFTY 50 2.8 12.1 19.9 56.6 25.2 17.2 15.4 13.5

S&P BSE SENSEX 2.7 12.7 19.4 55.3 24.6 17.7 16.2 13.6
S&P BSE 500 3.3 11.5 22.1 61.2 28.3 18.3 15.4 14.1
S&P BSE Mid-Cap 5.9 12.1 25.1 71.7 35.1 19.5 13.9 15.2
S&P BSE Small-Cap 4.3 11.3 36.0 88.9 47.2 24.8 17.0 15.1
NIFTY AUTO 5.6 0.0 7.5 34.0 21.9 3.4 1.1 11.5
NIFTY BANK 2.7 7.6 12.4 74.5 16.1 14.2 14.2 14.7
Nifty Financial Services 1.3 11.3 16.5 72.3 20.4 20.0 18.1 16.9
NIFTY FMCG 2.3 12.0 15.7 35.5 16.8 10.7 13.4 15.0
NIFTY INFRA 6.7 15.8 22.9 63.1 28.0 19.1 12.5 6.9
NIFTY IT 1.3 20.1 35.5 75.6 45.5 30.2 27.7 19.9
NIFTY MEDIA 33.5 19.0 38.4 38.2 5.4 -4.4 -6.4 6.0
NIFTY METAL -1.8 7.6 41.1 150.2 53.6 17.2 17.3 6.7
NIFTY NEXT 50 1.9 10.1 24.0 56.8 25.4 15.8 13.1 15.7
NIFTY PHARMA 0.8 1.1 17.9 22.9 32.2 13.2 4.8 12.3
NIFTY PRIVATE BANK 3.2 6.3 9.5 64.6 12.1 11.1 12.6 0.0
NIFTY PSU BANK 6.3 -1.4 15.1 94.4 0.2 -2.8 -4.5 -2.5
NIFTY REALTY 32.8 49.4 53.8 142.5 36.8 32.7 20.4 8.0
S&P BSE Consumer Durables 10.7 16.2 25.9 70.3 31.3 29.2 26.9 20.6
S&P BSE OIL & GAS Index 7.1 13.1 23.5 49.5 17.1 7.2 10.0 8.0
S&P BSE Power Index 9.5 16.1 29.2 93.5 28.7 18.3 10.0 4.2
S&P BSE Telecom 10.6 28.5 35.9 70.1 37.1 19.8 8.4 3.6

Data as on 30th September 2021. Returns less than 1 year are in absolute terms and greater than 1 year are CAGR
Source: ACE MF, BSE, NSE

MARKET MACROSCOPE | INVESTMENT PRODUCTS | OCTOBER 2021 17

Macro Economic Indicators

GDP Growth (%): Inflation:

30 20.1 15
11.39
20
7.1 10 6.69
10 5.30
0 5
0.41
-10 0

Jul-21
Nov-20

Jun-21
Apr-21
May-21
Mar-21
Aug-20
Sep-20

Dec-20

Feb-21

Aug-21
Jan-21
Oct-20
-20
-30

Q1 FY22
Q1 FY19
Q2 FY19
Q3 FY19
Q4 FY19
Q1 FY20
Q2 FY20
Q3 FY20
Q4 FY20
Q1 FY21
Q2 FY21
Q3 FY21
Q4 FY21
WPI CPI

Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Aug-20 Nov-20 Feb-21 May-21 Aug-21

FY20 FY21 FY21 FY21 FY21 FY22 WPI 0.41 2.29 4.17 13.11 11.39
Quaterly
3.0 -24.4 -7.4 0.5 1.6 20.1 CPI 6.69 6.93 5.03 6.3 5.3
GDP %
Source : Ministry of Statistics & Programme Implementation Source : Ministry of Statistics & Programme Implementation

Industrial Production Growth: India Composite PMI:

150 60
55.4
100 55

50 50
11.5
0 -10.5 45 46

-50 40
Nov-20

Jul-21
Apr-21
May-21
Jun-21
Aug-20
Sep-20

Dec-20
Jan-21
Feb-21
Mar-21

Aug-21
Oct-20
Jul-20

Jul-21
Jun-21
Apr-21
May-21
Aug-20

Nov-20
Sep-20

Dec-20
Jan-21
Feb-21
Mar-21
Oct-20

Jul-20 Oct-20 Jan-21 Apr-21 Jul-21 Aug-20 Nov-20 Feb-21 May-21 Aug-21
IIP -10.50 4.50 -0.60 133.50 11.50 Composite PMI 46 56.3 57.3 48.1 55.4
Source : Ministry of Statistics & Programme Implementation Source :www.fxempire.com

Domestic Yield Movement: 10 Year US Treasury Yield Movement:

7 4 2
6.22
6.02 4 2
6 2 1.49
3.95 3.98 4
1
5 4
1
4.00 3 1
4
4.00 3 1 0.69
3 3 1
Jul-21
Jun-21
Nov-20

Apr-21
May-21
Sep-20

Dec-20
Jan-21
Feb-21
Mar-21

Aug-21
Sep-21
Oct-20

0
Jun-21
Jul-21
Nov-20
Dec-20

Apr-21
May-21
Sep-20

Jan-21

Aug-21
Feb-21
Mar-21

Sep-21
Oct-20

Repo Rate 10 Yr G-sec 1 Yr CD Rates (RHS)

Sep-20 Dec-20 Mar-21 Jun-21 Sep-21 Sep-20 Dec-20 Mar-21 Jun-21 Sep-21
Repo 4.00 4.00 4.00 4.00 4.00
US Yields 0.69 0.92 1.74 1.47 1.49
1 Yr CD 6.02 5.89 6.18 6.05 6.22
10 Yr Gsec 3.95 3.65 3.95 4.03 3.98 Source : investing.com
Source : investing.com, RBI, Bloomberg

MARKET MACROSCOPE | INVESTMENT PRODUCTS | OCTOBER 2021 18

Macro Economic Indicators

FII Equity Flows (Rs cr): FII Debt Flows (Rs cr):
80,000 20,000
60,000 15,000
10,000 13,363
40,000 4,364
13,154 5,000
20,000
0
- -5,000
(7,783)
(20,000) -10,000

Jul-21
May-21
Nov-20
Sep-20

Mar-21

Sep-21
Jan-21

Jul-21
May-21
Nov-20
Sep-20

Mar-21

Sep-21
Jan-21
Sep-20 Dec-20 Mar-21 Jun-21 Sep-21 Sep-20 Dec-20 Mar-21 Jun-21 Sep-21
FII Equity FII Debt
-7,783 62,016 10,482 17,215 13,154 4,364 6,542 6,822 -3,946 13,363
Flows Flows
Source : NSDL Source : NSDL

USD vs. INR: Gold Price (Rs/10gm):

75 55,000
74.24
75 52,000 50,528
74
49,000
74 73.77
46,000
73
45,959
73 43,000
72 40,000
Jul-21
Nov-20

Apr-21
May-21
Jun-21

Aug-21
Sep-20

Dec-20
Jan-21
Feb-21
Mar-21

Sep-21
Oct-20

Jul-21
Jun-21
Sep-20

Nov-20

Apr-21
May-21
Dec-20
Jan-21
Feb-21
Mar-21

Aug-21
Sep-21
Oct-20

Sep-20 Dec-20 Mar-21 Jun-21 Sep-21 Sep-20 Dec-20 Mar-21 Jun-21 Sep-21

$ vs. ₹ 73.77 73.07 73.11 74.33 74.24 Gold Price 50,528 50,123 44,228 46,773 45,959
Source : Bloomberg Source : India Bullion and Jewellers Association

Brent Crude (USD/Barrel):

90
80 78.35
70
60
50 40.95
40
30
Jul-21
Jun-21
Nov-20

Apr-21
May-21
Sep-20

Dec-20
Jan-21
Feb-21
Mar-21

Aug-21
Sep-21
Oct-20

Sep-20 Dec-20 Mar-21 Jun-21 Sep-21

Brent
Crude
40.95 51.80 63.54 75.13 78.35
Source :Investing.com

MARKET MACROSCOPE | INVESTMENT PRODUCTS | OCTOBER 2021 19

India Horizons All-star Portfolio

Portfolio Details:

Stock % Stock %
Bank Bees 9.3% Mahindra & Mahindra 3.0%
Infosys 5.8% Supreme Industries 2.9%
Reliance Industries 5.1% Minda Industries 2.9%
State Bank of India 4.7% Zydus Wellness 2.8%
Axis Bank 4.6% Max Financial Services 2.8%
Apollo Hospitals 4.4% Larsen & Toubro 2.7%
Somany Ceramics 4.1% Sun TV Network 2.6%
Birla Corporation 4.0% Mrs. Bectors Food Specialities 2.6%
Saregama India 4.0% Radico Khaitan 2.6%
Atul Ltd 3.9% Thyrocare Technologies 2.2%
Laurus Labs 3.5% Phoenix Mills 2.1%
PNC Infratech 3.4% Bajaj Auto 2.0%
Jk Cement 3.2% KEC International 1.6%
Crompton G. Consumer Elec 3.2% Cash 4.1%

Market Cap Allocation Sector Allocation

BFSI 21%
Cash, 4% CONSUMER 15%
PHARMA /… 10%
Small Cap, AUTO 8%
Large Cap, CEMENT 7%
24%
42% MEDIA 7%
CAP GOODS &… 6%
TECHNOLOGY 6%
Mid Cap,
OIL & GAS 5%
30% CASH 4%
FERTILIZER &… 4%
MISCELLANEOUS 3%
RETAIL 2%
POWER 2%

Performance

25.9%
23.3%
18.7%

12.1% 12.1%
7.5%
5.9%
3.1% 2.8%

1M Returns 3M Returns Since Inception

India Horizons All-star Portfolio Nifty 50 S&P BSE Midcap

Data as on 30th Sep 2021 Launch Date: 06-Apr-21, Returns less than 1 year are absolute, more than 1 year are CAGR

MARKET MACROSCOPE | INVESTMENT PRODUCTS | OCTOBER 2021 20

India Horizons Bellwether Portfolio

Portfolio Details:

Stock % Stock %
Bank Bees 14.5% Bata India 3.5%
United Spirits 6.2% KNR Constructions 3.0%
Infosys 5.5% Mahindra & Mahindra 2.7%
SBI Life Insurance Company 5.4% Ultratech Cement 2.7%
Reliance Industries 5.2% Thyrocare Technologies 2.5%
ITC 5.1% Bajaj Auto 2.5%
ICICI Bank 5.0% UPL Ltd 2.4%
State Bank of India 4.8% Sun TV Network 2.3%
Carborundum Universal 4.8% Godrej Agrovet 1.8%
TCS 4.3% Huhtamaki PPL 1.5%
Dr. Reddy's Laboratories 4.2% KEC International 1.3%
Larsen & Toubro 3.7% Cash 5.0%

Market Cap Allocation Sector Allocation

BFSI 30%
Cash, 5% CONSUMER 13%
Small Cap, CAP GOODS &… 11%
15% TECHNOLOGY 10%
Mid Cap, PHARMA /… 7%
6% AUTO 5%
Oil & Gas 5%
Large Cap, CASH 5%
74% RETAIL 4%
CEMENT 3%
FERTILIZER &… 2%
MEDIA 2%
MISCELLANEOUS 2%
POWER 1%

Performance

23.2%

18.7%

12.1%

8.1%

3.5% 2.8%

1M Returns 3M Returns Since Inception

India Horizons Bellwether Portfolio Nifty 50

Data as on 30th Sep 2021. Launch Date: 06-April-21. Returns less than 1 year are absolute, more than 1 year are CAGR

MARKET MACROSCOPE | INVESTMENT PRODUCTS | OCTOBER 2021 21

 CROSSWORD
1

2 3

4 5

7 8

9 10

11 12

13

14

Across
4 An option _________ is the current market price of an option contract (7)
7 An entity established by a wealthy family to manage its assets and investments (6,6)
8 ____ rate refers to the minimum interest rate charged by a Bank(4)
9 A stock, bond, or other asset that cannot easily and readily be sold(8)
11 _____ ratio is a measurement of the portfolio's outperformance per unit of the portfolio's
volatility (6)
13 Entity that computes insurance risks and premiums in a scientific manner(7)
14 _____ inflation refers to the non-food, non-fuel component of the inflation basket(4)
Down
The process of selling a government-owned enterprise to a privately owned and operated
1
entity(13)
2 Interest rate differential between two bonds(6)
3 Measure of sensitivity of the price of a debt instrument to a change in interest rates(8)
5 Goods produced domestically but consumed abroad(7)
6 _____________ Fund is a concentrated mutual fund which invests in a limited number of stocks(7)
10 A contract whose value is based on an underlying financial asset (10)
12 A Corporation's purchase of its own shares in the stock market (3,4)

Note : Solution for the above crossword will be provided in next month’s newsletter

Answers of last month’s crossword: Across Down

4 Crowdfunding 1 Acquisition
6 Lock in 2 Loan to value
8 Reflation 3 Bull
11 Bid 5 Dividend
12 Cashier 7 Contra
14 Contract 9 Maturity
10 Merger
13 Coupon

MARKET MACROSCOPE | INVESTMENT PRODUCTS | OCTOBER 2021 22

MARKET MACROSCOPE | INVESTMENT PRODUCTS | OCTOBER 2021 23
Disclaimer

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MARKET MACROSCOPE | INVESTMENT PRODUCTS | OCTOBER 2021 24