— SMMACTEMONIOMMA & CHIIOCOOUA HAYKY, T. VI, No 4 . SOLyKUMA MH MeTOAO0rNA Hay4Horo noncKka’ < ia TH. PY3ABHH PE3IOME AOnyktusibie paccyxQeHnA BBeNn B MeTO- Aonoruio Haykm 4.C. Mpc B kayecTBe cpenctea Novcka O6BACHMTeNbHbIX rMno- Te3. Mockonbky HA TPagMUMOHHaA, Hi. cumponuueckaa Norvka He paccMaTpuBa- foT runoTesy Kak Normueckylo dbopmy yMo- saKmioyeHnit, TO a6 AyKTHBHbIe paccyKae- Hv He TONbKO He Nlonyynnn AanbHenwen paspa6orkH, HO M BCTpeTHNK BOsparKeHKA CO CTOpOHb!I NornKos, Mexny Tem Takne paccyKJeHHA WMPOKO McnoNbsyloTcA HE TOMbKO B HayKe, HO M B CaMbIx pasHoo6- PasHbIx OOMACTAX AeATENHOCTH, CBASAH- HOM C NOKCKOM MCTHHbI. PasgeneHne KOH TekCTa OTKPbITMA M KOHTeKCTa O6OCHOBa- HMA, AOMMHYpyiOWee B aHanuTu4ecKoh unococbun Hayku, TakKe He cnocobcTBO- Bano paspabotxe npobnem adayKyun n Hay4HOrO nowcka B Yeriom. B HacToAWe/ CTaTbe NpegNpHHATA NonbiTKa NoKasaTe, 4TO AGAYKLMA XOTA M He ABNSeTCA Normue- ws cKO cbopMoi yMo3zaKmoyeHuA, TeM He = MeHee npefctasnaet coboi BaxHblit 9B- 3 f puctnyecknh MeTOg NoKCcKa OObACHMTENb- aa HbIX notes. e Sais daHOWAX pesynbTaTb! HaGNtogeHVi WM sKCMepwMeHToB. B cBA3M C STAM B9KoH 3afjanca yenbio B npoTMBoBec «OpraHoHy» ApucToTena NocTpovTb ceo «Hosbii OpraHoH» MbINeHMA, KOTOpbI MOxXHO GbiNo 6b! Ucrionb30- BaTb ANA VCCnefOBaHuA ABNeHKA Npuposb!. Ero W3BECTHBIe KAHOHI MH- AYKuMM, CHCTeMaTW3MpOBAaHHbIe M paseuTbie Bnocneactemn Lpk.C, Mun- JIeM, COCTABMN OCHOBHOe COnepKaHMe MHAYKTMBHO nornKy. OpHaKo BokoH cNMUIKOM npeysennunBan 3HayeHVe CBOMX KaHOHOB VHAYKLMM, paccmaTpvean Wx Kak GesowMGouHbie CnocoObI OTKPbITMA HOBbIX HayYHbIX VCTUH «Hau Ke flyTb OTKPbITHA HayK, — NMCaN OK, - HEMHOTO OCTaBNAeT OCT- pote M chne fapoBaHiiA, HO noyTM ypasHiBaeT ux. Nogo6Ho Tomy, Kak ANA NDOBeseHMA NPAMOM MN ONVMcaHKA COBepLEHHOTO Kyra MHOTO 3Ha- YaT TBePAOCTb, YMeNOCTb MM VCNbITAHHOCTb yk, ECMM NONbsoBaTbCA TONbKO PyKOW/, — MANO UK COBCEM HMYerO He 3HaYaT, ECNM NONb30BaTeCA umpkynem MW nuHenKon. Tak OBcTOVT Mc HaluMM MeTOgOM>".. Ogvako nocTeneHHO CTano OYeBMDHbIM, YTO C NOMOLbIO MHAYKTHBHOM MOgeNM MOKHO aHANNaMpOBATS MMW NPOCTeMWMe NPMYMHHbIe CBASM Me- Kay HenlocpegcTBeHHO Habmiodaembimu ABNeHMAMM V COBbITAAMM. UTO6b! PackpbiTe Gonee rnyGoKne 3aKOHOMepHOCTH npupopb!, HeOBXogMMO Bbino BBODMTb HeHaONioAaembie OObeKTbI (MONeKyNbI, ATOMbI, feHbI Mt T.N.) CTPOUTb HayYHbIe TeOpMy, COMepxalliMe Takne OOvexTbI. MocteneHHo yuenbie yOexganct B TOM, YTO HitKaKOrO NPAMOTO NyTH OT HaGMHODaeMbIX o6bektos k AGCTPaKTHbIM TEOPMAM M 3aKOHAM He cyulecTByeT. OHM MoryT GbITb OTKPbITbI TONbKO B PesynbTaTe TpyAHOrO UM CNOxHOTO Npoyecca uC- cnegoBaHna, HayalioM KOTOPOTO Chy»xaT runOTesbl, CMEACTBAA M3 KOTOPbIX CUCTeMaTHYECKH NPOBEPAKTCA C NOMOLIbIO HaGmiogeHMit nu akcnepnmen- Tos. Ha 9T0M OcHOBe nmocTeneHHO @opmupyetca eunomemuKko-dedyk- muéHasl MOdeNb Hayky, COrnacHo KOTOPOK sagaya cbunococpun HaykH oF- PaHMYMBAeTCA NOFMYECKMM @HANW3OM CyLeCTBYIOero 3HAHMA KM ero NpO- Bepkol, Kak MpovcxopMT BOSHKHOBEHME HOBOTO 3HAHMA B HaykKe, KaKMM OOpa- 30M feHepvpyHTCA HOBbIe UgeH, TMNOTesbI M TeOpMK — BCe 9TO OTHOCH- DOCb K KOMNETEHUMM SMNMpMeCKOH NcuXONOrMM No3sHaHNA. Tak Co Bpe- ' Boxont &. Counnenns: B21. T. 2.M., 1972. C. 27-28.T.U. PY3ABVH MeHeM BOSHMKNO MPOTMBONOCTABNeHNe KOHTeKCTa OGocHOgaHUA Hay4HOTO 3HaHMA KOHTeKCTY efO OMKpbIMUA, HavOonee ACHO BbipaxeHHoe T. Peii- xeHOaXxoM. «AKT OTKPbITMA, — NUCAN OH, — He NoAPAeTcA norM4ecKomy avanvay. He geno norvka OFbACHATS Hay4HbIe OTKPbITHA; BCE, YTO OH MOXKET CA{eNaTb, ~ 910 NPOaHaNnsMpoBaTb OTHOWEHMA Mexay cbakTaMi 4 Teopneit... A BBOXY TEPMMHbI «KOHTEKCT OTKDBITMA» A «KOHTEKCT O60CHO- BaHvia», YTOGbI NPOBeCTH TaKoe pasnuuve. Torta Mb MOMKHbI CkazaTb, 4TO SNVCTeMOMOTMA 3aHAMAETCA TONBKO KOHTEKCTOM OBOCHOBAHMA»?. Bpigatouymiica amepnkaHcKni nornk w cpvnocod Yapnes C. Nupe ewe B koHUe XIX B. BbICTYNMN NPOTHB NOAOGHIX BsrNAgOB, CUUTAA, YTO NorMKa w @unocoduA HaykKM QOMKHbI 3aHMMaTbCA KOHUENTyaNbHbIM aHarin3oM BO3HVKHOBEHMR HOBBIX Mel M rMnoTes B Hayke, MosTomy Hapsgy Cc Tpa- AMUMOHHbIM ChopMaMn JeAYKTHBHEIX 1 UHDYKTMBHbIX YMO3aKIONEHM OH Bpen a6dyxuulo Kak cneyvduyeckui cnoco6 novcka ObbACHUTeNbHbIX rnotes’, ABAYKTUBHBIE PACCYKAEHMA MW UX OCOBEHHOCTU CpasHysaa abpyKuvio c mHayKnel M genyKuer, Mupc Tax onpege- MiAeT C€ MECTO CPegM TPAaAMUMOHHbIX (OPM yMOsAKNOYeHHM. «VHAyK- UMA, — YKa3bIBAeT OH, — PACCMATPUBAeT TEOPMN M M3MEPRET CTeNeHb UX cornacua c caktamv. OHa Hikorga He MOET COsAaTb kakor-NNGo Mugen Boo6uje. He Gonbwe Toro MoxeT cgenaTb AeAyKyva. Boe pen Haykn BOSHMKAaHOT NocpepcTBOM abgyxunn. ASgykKuyMA cocTouT B uccnegoBakun (paktos vw nocTpoeHu Teopiv, OBbACHAIOWEH ux». Takum o6pazom, nog- YEPKUBAeT OH, «MEQYKUMA AOKa3bIBAeT, YTO HEYTO GOsKHO ObiTb, WHOYK> UMA NOKasbIBaeT, YTO HEYTO OeticmeumenbHo cywecTByeT, a ab~yKynA fpocto npegnonaraer, 4To HeYTO MOxKEM BbiMb»*, B atom yTBepxXaeHnn ObpaujaeTcA BHUMAaHNe Ha XaDakTep saKnio¥e- Hui, MONyYaeMbIx C NOMOLbIO AeAYKYKM, VHAYKUMK VM abpyKyMu, HO HE PackpbiBaetca cnoco6 ux nonyyeHua. C atom TOUKY 3peHvA abgyxynA W MHOYKUMA OKa3bIBAalOTCA CXOMHbIMM NO pe3syNbTaTaM, HO BECbMa pa3nny- HbIMM 0 MeTOnY Wx nonyueHna. DelicTeMTenbHo, abazyKuMA NpnBOgMT He MPOCTO K TMNOTETHYECKMM, BEPOATHbIM 3aKNHOYEHMAM, a CY KT eneyndu- YECKVM METOAOM NOMCKa HayYHbIX TMNOTe3 ANA OObACHEHNA WMeHOLUMXCA cbaktos. XoTA MHAYKYKA B TPaAMUMOHHON Nore TakKe paccmaTpuBaeT- ? Reichenbach H. Experience and Prediction. Chicago, 1938. P. 6-7. * Tepairiet «reaykuita», CHHRYKIMAY Ht «aOYKUMAY MpOUCXONsT OT OL Horo KOpH «duceren, osHaxaoutero «BecTiD. C mpedukcom de BosnHKacT TePMHH GHEAYKUKG, KoTOpbIii OsHaYAcT BEIBeZeHMe, ¢ in — «uMAyKUND — Hawesenne 1c ab — «aGayKuns — uprBexeHne, * Peirce Ch.S. Collected Papers. Vol. 5. N.Y., 1935. P. 189.ABAYKUMA UM METOQONIOPMMA HAYYHOFO NOUCKA CR Kak YMO3aKMHOYeHVe OT YaCTHOTO k OBUeMy, OT OTENbHbIX dhakTOB K UX OG6O6WjeHnIO, HO OHA B NYYUeM Cny¥ae MOKeT NPETEHAOBATb Ha YCTAHOB- neHve aMnupuuecknx rMroTes. Mupcy ke XOTeNOCb MCCNegoBaT Npoyecc NOWCKA HAYYHBIX FANOTE3, MOSPEACTBOM KOTOPIX MOXKHO BbiNO 6bI pac- KpbiTb BHYTP@HHM MeXaHV3M, Neal B OCHOBe HaOniofaembIx cbakToB Vi ABNEHII, U TEM CaMbIM OSBACHMT® Hx. Kak M MHOTMe COBPeMEHHBIE aB- Topbi, PACCMATPNBArOLIME VHAYKUMNIO Kak BEPOATHOCTHOE yMOsaKMOYeHHe, Niupe xapakteprayet ee Kak METOZ NPOBEPKK MMEIOLIMAXCA runoTe3 UM TeO- pun. Jlormueckyo chopmy aGbayktnBHoro paccyxgeHua Mupe npegctasnaet 8 chegyroulem Byge, 1. Ha6niogaetca HexoTopoe yauentenbHoe (surprising) asneHue P- 2. P 6bino Gb! OObACHEHO, ecnu runoTesa H Obina Obi McTMHHOA 3, CnegosatenbHo, uMeeTCA OCHOBaHie AyMaTb, YTO runoTesa H viCTHHHa Ha nepebii sarnag KaxKeTcA, uTO abykTMBHOe paccyKgeHne Mano YeM OTAMYAeTCA OT TMNOTETHKO-DeEAYKTMBHOFO saKnioNeHUA, NOCKONbKy Npepnonaraet rmnoTesy B KaYeCTBe NOCbINKH. OgHaKO XOg paccyxXqeHHA & HEM MPAMO NPOTMBONONOXKEH CMNOTETHKO-DeDYKTMBHOMY BbIBODY, KOTO- poli HAYMHAETCA C 3apaHee 3agaHHOM rvnoTesbi, a 3aTeM V3 HEE BbIBO- AaTca cnegcTana. A6nykTuBHoe xe paccykqeHne HAYMHAeTCA C aHaNH3a VM TOUHOM OLEHKM YCTAHOBNeHHBIX dakmos, KOTOpbie DeTepMMHMpyIOT BbIGOp runoTesb! ANA ux OBbACHEHMA. VMeHHO Tak nocTynaloT yyeHbIe B CBOUX KOHKPeTHBIX VICCNeOBAHMAX, NOCKONbKY B CaMOM Ha4ane UMeiOT eno MMeHHO C WakTaMM M TONbKO NOTOM MiuyT MM OGbACHEHHA. Merny TeM HEKOTOPbIe KDUTIKH aBAYKYM He BYAAT KOPeHHOrO pasnuuna Mexny aBaykymei 1 npocTsim runoTeTMYeCKuM paccyxkgeHiem u O6paujaioT BHH- Male TONbKO Ha TO, YTO OHM ONMpalOTCA Ha TMNOTe3bIS. VingykTHBHOe yMo3aKnio¥eHMe Gombe noxoxe Ha abayKunio, no- CKOMBKY, BO-MepBbIX, OHO TaKKe HAYMHAeTCA C YACTHbIX hakTOB M COBep- waeTcA B HanpaBNeHAW OT YaCTHOTO K OBLeMy, BO-BTOPbIX, PesynbTaT YMO3aKNOYeHAA VMMeeT NW NpasgonogobHbi, WN BepoATHOCTHBIM, xapaktep. Mupc paccmaTpuBaeT UHgyKMIO, KaK Mbi BNgeNk, COBCeM MHa- ue. Mo ero MHEHMMO, OHA JOMKHa NOHMMaTBCA Kak ONepaunA, NpeANaralo- uaa OWleHKy — B NpOcTOM unK KONMYeCTBEHHON cope - runoTese, yKe BbIABUHYTOM 3apaHee. TakOe NOHMMAHKe VHAYKUAM COOTBETCTBYeT CO- BDeMeHHON TOUKe 3PEHKA, NPHHATON B BEPOATHOCTHON NornKe. Tnapkoe, YeM oTnMYaeTcR abAyKUMA OT KnaccuyecKo MHAYKYM B3- koHa — Munna, COCTOUT B TOM, YTO OHa He ABNACTCA GesOLMGOUHbIM Me- TOAOM OTKPbITHA HOBLIX VCTHH B HayKe, CBOeTO Poa ANTOpUTMOM OTKDbI- * Frankfurt H. Pierce’s account of inquiry // The Journal of Philosophy. 1958, Ne 55/14. P. 596r.V. PY3ABUH Tua. Ee Wem COCTOMT CkOpeli B NOMCKe rMnOTe3, KOTOPbIe MOryT NOMO4b B OObACHEHMM AaHHbIX cbakToB. CooTBeTcTBeHHO 3Tomy Mpc chopmynupy- eT Tp MeTOgONOrMueCKMx TpeGoBaHiA K OOBACHMTENbHEIM runoTesaM, 1. OHM AOMKHbI OBBACHHTE He TombkO aMNMpuYeckKh Ha6ntogaemle chaktbl, HOM cbakTb! HenocpeacTBeHHO HeHaGniogaemble M npoBeprembie KOCBeHHbIM nyTeM. 2. Tunote3bi AomKHb! GIT ccbopmynuposakbl Kak MHTepporaTMBHble YTBEDXQEHMA, T.€. CONEPXAT ONPeMeNeHHbI BONPOC, Ha KOTOpbIM cre AYeT OTBETHTb B XOMe MccnepoBaHiA. 3. Heo6xogumoe Tpeboganve k ni6oi OObACHMTeNbHON runoTese — 970 ee NDOBEPAEMOCTd, NPMYeM NocnegHAA He OrpakMunBaeTca nog~TBep- oxgeHvem HaGniogaeMbimm DaHHbimv. UTO KacaeTCA KpMTepMA ONpoBep- 2KEHMA, TO OH XOTA M ABNACTCA MOTMYECKM KOPPeKTHBIM NPABMMOM, TEM HE MeHEe CH KAT MMLb CpeACTBOM SNUMUHAUM NOKHBIX rMnoTes, AGnykTHBHOe paccyXHeHHe, Kak B/GHO M3 MPMBELeEHHON BbILUe CXEMbI, He rapaHTupyeT OTKPbITMA VCTHHBI, a OGneryaeT ee NOMCK, NOCKONbKy OnMpaeTcA He Ha NpOCTOe KONMYECTBEHHOe NOATBEDXAeHNe rUNOTESbi, a Ha Takyto KaYeCTBEHHYWO UX XapaKTEDUCTUKy, KaK CNOCOBHOCTb OBbACHUTE PenepanTHbie dbakTbi. BO3MOXHbIE CNOCOBbI NPAMEHEHUA ABAYKTUBHbIX PACCYKQEHMM AGgyktvBHbie paccykKqeHuA, Kak YCTaHOBNeHO Ceityac, MOryT UCnonb- 30BaTbCA BCIOAY, [He NPOMCXOAMT NOVCK HOBOFO 3HAHMA, HAYMHaA C o6bI- ACHHOFO MbILUNEHMA MW KOHYaA Hay4HbIM WCCnegOBaHveM, Ona HarnsQHo- CTH HayHem OGcyKeHne MX NPMMeHeHMA B paboTe AeTeKTHBa Mt CnefOBa- Tens. TIPAMEHEHME ABAYKUMM B NOCTPOEHKM DETEKTMBHbIX CKOKETOB B feTextwsHon nutepatype OCHOBHbIe 3TaNbI NoMcka NDegCTABNeHb! HavGonee oTyeTnBo. OpHako, HeCMOTPA Ha 9T0, YaCTO DeATeMbHOCTe DeTekTBoB M chegoBatenev axanusupyeTca C NOMOLIbIO AeAYKTMBHOFO UM pexke rinloTeTHMKO-eAyKTMBHOrO MeTOa, XOTA Ha CAMOM lene STOT MeTOg B MyYWeM Chy4Yae ONUCbIBAeT NMLb KOHE4HbI pesynbTatT ux novcKa. Npegctasnenne 0 TOM, YTO AeTeKTMB paccyxnaeT FeAYKTMBHBIM cnoco- 6om, nony4wiio WwHpoKoe pacnpoctpakeHue Gnaropapa Aptypy KoHaH Aoiiny, KoTopbit BknagbiBaeT STy MbICNb B ycTa rnaBHOrO repoA CBOMX AeTeKTMBHbIX pOMaHoB — Cbill|MKa-nioOuTena WepnoKxa Xonmca. B gevicT-ABOYKUMA VW METOSONOMA HAYYHOFO NOUCKA BYTeNbHOCT, KaK NOKa3bIBAeT AHANN3 eFO NPOMsBeAEHHi, NeENyKTHBHbIM MeTOM VCNOMbsyeTCA MM TOMbKO ANA NPOBepkA CBOMX AOrafOK, npegno- MOKeHMM W rMnoTes. OuesvqHO YTOG6bI MOWAT K HAM, AeTeKTHB AOMKeH NPOBeCTH TpyAHOe V ANMTeNbHOe paccnepoBaHve No aHanvsy chakros, NogTBepKGaWMx ero NpepNonoKeHMA M runoTesbl. A 3TO SHAYMT, YTO XOX ero paccyKgeHNit coBepwaeTcA no cxeme aGgyKTMBHbIx, a He DeAYK- TWBHbIX paccyxdeHni. B STOM MOXHO yOequTbCA, OGpaTMBLIMch K TEM BbICKa3bIBAHAAM, KOTOPbIe BCTPeYalOTCA, HanpuMep, B HaKGonee nony- DApHo nopectw asropa «CoGaka Backepsunneit». Npennpnmaa cBoe paccnegosakue, Xonmc ¢ camoro Hayana OTBeEpraeT MbICMb O CyLjeCTBO- BaHM MMCTHYECKOTO Poka, TArOTeWWerO AKOObI Han ponoM Backepsun- nei. OH cnpasegnugo cunTaer, YTO «np paccnegoBaHun Hano onMpatb- ca Ha qbaktbi, a He Ha Nerekgbi». Oncbigan QanbHeiWi Xon AevicTBMI cBOerO FepoRr, aBTOP NOKa3bIBAeT, YTO OH «BIBeLUMBAN BCe MenbYaliLuMe MoAPOGHOCTH, CTpOMN OAHY 3a Apyro HecKONbko TunoTes, cpaBHABaN mexay co6oh v pewan, Kakne CBEfeHVA CyuleCTBeHHbI, M KaKMMVM MO)KHO NpeHeOpev». V3 TeKcTa NOBECTM UMTaTeNb NowMeT, Kakve rMnoTesb! U Novemy oKazaniMcb HECOCTOATeNbHbIMM. VMeHHO NosTOMy NpM paccnepo- BaHMM «B3BELIMBAIOTCA BC BOIMOMHOCTH, C TEM 4TOObI BbIGpaTb M3 HAX HavOonee npasgonopobHylo». Ha Taky0 runotesy Wepnoxa Xonmca Ha- Ben @aMMNbHbIt MopTpeT OAHOTO M3 NpegcrasnTenei popa Backepann- nevi, B KOTOPOM OH yBvgen Gnu3sKoe cxo~cTBO cC nofospeBaeMbIM npe- CTYNHVMKOM, OTHPEICKOM 9TOFO POfa, KOTOPBIM CKPbIBANCA NO] BbIMBILL- NeHHoN cbamunnert Crenntoxa. Ecnn BHMMaTembHO npoakanv3MpoBaTb NPMBeAeHHbIe BbILe BbICKA- SbIBAHMA, a TakKKe NPOCNEAVTb PasBepTbIBAHHe CIOKETA NOBECTH, TO He- TpyAHO yGequTeCA B TOM, YTO OHM NpegcTaBnAIOT COBO Xopowee onuca- Hve OTAeNbHbIX SMeMeHTOB abpykTHBHOrO paccyyKqeHKA. Takne Ke pac- cykgeHA BCTpeyaloTCA M B APYTMX ACTEKTMBHBIX NpovsBegeHMAX nucatena. VHTepecHo OTMeTHTb, YTO OAMH M3 COBPeMeHHbIX MCCneqOBa- Teneli HacuvTan y Hero 217 cnyyaeB Mcnonb3soBaHna abayKTMBHbIX pac- cyxgeHuit. Cam nucatenb yctamn Lilepnoka Xonmca 3aaBnaer, YTO 8 ero 3aKMHOYEHMAX HE CYLECTBYET HUKAKOM TaliHbl, NOTOMy 4TO ChakTb! Aonyc- kaiOT TOMbKO OQHO ObACHEHHe. STO yTBEPXQeHNe NOAYEpKMBAeT, YTO BO BCX CBOUX NPOV3BEAEHMAX OH CTPEMMNICA NPeXkNe BCETO HCKATb OOBAC- HMTeMbHbIe TMMOTeSbI, T.e. paccykan aGAyKTMBHO, a AEAYKTMBHbIA MeTO, NpMMeHAN TONbKO ANA NpoBepkKM NpeAnonoxeHui v runotes. No rnote- TUKO-feAYKTUBHOM CXeMe MOCTPOeHb! Te NpovsBeseHnA AeTeKTMBHOTO \kaHpa, 8 KOTOPbIX aBTOP C CaMorO Ha4aNa pacKpbiBaeT NpecTynneHHe, a NOTOM NoKa3bIBaeT, Kak OHO GbINo CoBepleHO. O¥eBNAHO, TO Takue e- TeKTHBb! He BbI3bIBAINT OCOGOTO MHTepeCa y MHOTMX UMTaTeNel, NOCKONEKy He 3ACTABNAIOT WX OragbIBaTbCA MW AYMaTb O TOM, KTO M NOYeMy COBeD- wun npectynnexne.v.M. PY3ABUH Akanemn’] m B Polb ABAYKUMM B NOCTPOEHMM M MPOBEPKE CYMEBHbIX BEPCHA Ech 8 AeTeKTUBHbIX ClOKeTaX 3aKNio4eHve HM CaM NyTb K HeMy NpH- AYMaHbI aBTOPOM KM NosTOMy sapaHee saGoTNvBO NoproTOBNeHb! MM, TO cnegosatenb, aHanvanpya peanbhbie ena, MOXeT BCTPeTHTECA C CaMbI- MM HeOXMg@HHbIMM OOCTOATeNbCTBaMM. B 3TOM CMbICNe ero JeATeNb- HOCTb Gonbule Noxoxka Ha TBOPYECKKA NpOYecc NoGoro uccnegoBatena — yueHoro, usobpetatena Wn ucTopHka-AokKyMeHTanucta. MosTomy paboTa cnegosatena vMeeT HecpaBHMMbiii C paboTON aBTopa caMoro M30LIpeH- Horo feTeKTWBa XapakTep NO CBO CNOXHOCTH M HenpesCKasyemocTu. AevictentenbHo, pesynbTatT 3qecb 3apaHee HevaBeCTeH, a CaMM cbakTbl MOryT MHTepnpeTMpoBaTbCA No-pasHomy. OAHakO cyWwecTByeT M onpege- NeHHOe CXOACTBO B MeTOMAX paGOTb! CONMHUTeNA AeTeKTMBOB M CnegoOBa- Tena, Bo-nepsbix, 06a OHM HayMHaioT C aHanvga NpectynneHna MW ocTaB- TeHHbIX MOCe Hero CNegoB, KOTOPbIe PaccMaTpUBAIOTCA KaK CBUQeTeNb- crBa. Bo-BTopbix, Ha OCHOBaHMiM NPMAYMaHHBIX MN DeaNbHbIx cbakToB o6a MUlYT runoTe3y HNK Bepcuio, KoTOpaA CMorna Obi OOBACHUTE NMUMHY, xapaktep, Uenw M MOTHBaUA niogeli, COBeEPLMBLWMX MpectynneHve “nM cnoco6ctsosasuinx emy. Mockonbky B CygeGHOM npakTuke OObIYHO BbI- ApMraeTcA cpasy Ke HECKOMbKO BepCHii, NPUHKMaeMbIX B KaYeCTBE Pabo- Ux rHnoTes, TO COspaeTCA BneYaTNeHHe, 4TO CyfeGHOe paccnenosaHne C HIOTMYECKOM TOUKA 3PeHVA COBepWaeTCA NO rMnoTeTMKO-NeAyKTMBHOMY etogy. B caMom ene, Ha nepsbiii B3rnAg KaxKeTCA, YTO CnefoBaTenb yke pacnonaraeT MHOKeCTBOM BepCuit M BeseT NOMCK, McnoNb3yA HanGo- Nee npasgonopobuyio v3 Hvx. V3 runoTes NorMueckn BIBOAATCA cnepcT- BMA, KOTODbIE CONOCTABNAWTCA C PealbHbIMM CBMpeTeNbCTBAMM M NOKa- saHMAM” OYeBaueB ((paktamy). Mo crenekn nogTBepxeHna 4 O60cHO- BaHna TOM MNK HHO BepCnn OTAeNbHbIMM daktamn CnepoBaTenb AenaeT 3aKnioveHve O npaBgonogobHoctM cooTBeTCTByOWeN Bepcnn. OpHako TakOlt TMNOTETHKO-DeAYKTMBHBI MOXON K aHanv3y AeATeNbHOCTH Cnego- BaTeNnA COBEPWEHHO HeagekBaTHO ONNCbIBAeT BECb NOWeCC lOpKgM4e- ckoro paccnegosanna. B ny4uem cny4ae ero MOKHO PaccMaTpUBaT Kak 3aBepwiaioulyiO CTaqMio paccnegoBaHvA, KOrqa npoBepseTcA afexBat- HOCT HavOonee npasgonogobHon rinoTesbl. 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Ecnu B KayecTBe TaKoiA Bepcun GygeT Bbibpana cucTema aprymeHTos, oOnagatoujan HanOonbulen OObACHMTENbHON CHNOM, TO MOKKHO NPeANONOXKMTb, YTO B XoAe AANbHel- wero YTOUHeHMA, HONONHEHMA WM NPOBEpKM OHa OkaxeTCA HanGonee afex- BaTHOH W ANA NOMHOrO packpbITHA XapakTepa, NPMYMH M Yer NpecTynne- HMA, a TaKKe MEXaHN3Ma JeMICTBNI M MOTMBOB ef0 YYaCTHMKOB. ABYKUMA B ECTECTBEHHO-HAYYHOM WM COLMANbHOM UCCiEQOBAHMK O pon abgykunn Ham npvuuNoch yxe rOBOPHTb B CBASM C CONOCTaB- NeHNeM ee C TNOTETHKO-AeAYKTHBHOM MOneNbIO Hay4Horo nosHaHia. Kak Vi BCAKMIA NOMCK, Hay4HOe MccnegoBaHie HayMHaeTcA C alana npoOnem, T. @. NPOTMBOPeNMA, MN HECOOTBETCTBMA, Mey HOBbIMM cbakTaMM UM cTapbiMM MeTofamu ux OOpaAcHeHna. {nA Takoro OObACHeHMA NepsoHa- YaNbHO BbIgQBVraeTcA Goragka wnw npegnonoxKexne. Bnocnegctaun OHa MlogKpennaetca chaktamu w TeopeTMYeckuMu CoobpaxeHnamn M nosTOMy BBICTyNaeT B BUDE Hay4HOH rMnoTesbi. 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Mo ux MHeHitIO, Cheah BOSMOKHBIX ri notes Heo6xogumo Bbi6paTb Ty, KOTOpaA HaMnyywMM ofpa3som obpaAc- Het cbaxtb!". 1. D ecTb COBOKyNHOCTb AaHHbIx (cbaktos, HaOniogeHHi, sKcnepumeH- TOB MT. n.) 2. Tunotesa H O6bACHMT STM aHHb!e, ECM OHA OKAKETCA MCTMHHOM 3. Hikakne rMnoTesbl He MOryT OOBACHMTb D Tak Ke XOPOWO, Kak H Cnegosat snbHo, runotesa H BepostHa 8 onpepeneHHoH cTeneHn C.: Abductive Inference. Cambridge, 1994. P. 5.= = = cy ft © = 32 T.U. PY3ABUH Viger o Hamnyywem OBbscHeHMM, KOTOpaA npvcyTcTByeT B TpeTbeM Mocbinke, yTOWHAeT Cxemy Iupca, XOTA OHa HeABHO Npegnonaranacs uM. Hexotopbie kpuTitkh aGgyKuMM MbITaNWch cBecTM ee normueckyH CTpykTypy K FMNOTeTHYeCKMM paccyKJeHAAM UNM BYQOUSMeHEHMIO CXeMb! modus ponens, a Takxe K yMo3aKlo4eHHio OT JelicTBuA K npuunke. Bce OHM MoryT ObITb NpencTaBNeHbl B BAe OBEN CXeMbI: HDoE Ee tee H-eepoamuo Oguako Takan cxema He OTOGpaxaeT cneynduyecKoi ocobeHHOCTH aOAYKUMM KaK yMOsaKniONeHMA OT cbakTOB K OObACHHIOWIeN Wx rMnoTese. 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OveBUgHO, YTO NpocToe KonM4eCTBO cak-ABAYKUMA U METOAONOrMA HAYYHOLO NOUCKA TOB He MOKET CHYKMT’ MokazaTeneM OGBACHMTEMbHON CMMI rMnoTesbl. Flostomy ogHa runotesa ByfeT CuMTATbCA CuNbHee Apyrol, ecu OHA OObACHAST Gonee BaxHbIe CbakTbi, YeM TpMBvaNnbHble. He nocnezHioIo PONb urpaeT B OLY|eHKe M KPUTepUit MPOCTOTbI, MOCKONbKY NPM NPOYAX paB- HbIX YCNOBMAX MCCNegoBaTeNb NpegnountaeT BbiOpatb npocTyio rnote- ay. Hapagy c 4CTO pallMoHaNbHbIMu KpMTepwAMM OLIEHKK runoTes Hepen- KO MPMXOAMTCA YHMTbIBATb NParMaTMYeCKHe, STMUECKHE M VHbIe TpeboBa- Hua, Bce To cangeTenbctsyeT 0 TOM, 4TO KPHTepMK OUHKM OGBACHH- TeMbHOM CMMb! TMNOTes MENT CHOMHbIA, MHOTOMepHbIl xapakTep, 3aBH- AWM NDeXKAe BCero OT TeX cpakTOB, KOTOPbIe OHM DOMKHb! OObACHMT. OrnvuntenbHan OCOGeHHOCTb aGAYKTMBHbIX paccyKAeHMi COCTOUT B TOM, YTO OHM MpegctasnawT cobow obobujeHnA, KOTOpbie pacwupAIOM HaWe 3HaHve, B pesyNbTate Yero ux 3aKNIOYeHMA COMep KAT HOBY!O MH- cbopmaynio, KoTopaa He bina u3BecTHa pakbWwe. B 3TOM CMbicne abgyK- UMA CyLECTBEHHO OTNMYAETCA OT HEAYKUWA, 3akNIONeHMA KOTOpO He CO- Aepkat 8 NPMH\UWNe HHO McbopMaynn, KpOMe Toi, KOTOpAA COMeDKHTCA B ee Mocbinkax. Mpasga, ncwxonormueckh KaxKeTCA, YTO 3aknioueHne fe- AYKUMM DaeT HoBy!o MHcbopMautio, Ho npx Gonee BHAMaTeNLHOM aHanuze OkasbiBaeTcR, UTO 3Ta MHCbOpMaLINA 8 HEABHOM Be yxKe COMepKaNac B Tlocbinkax, a 3aknO¥eHWe NUNWb NpegcTaBnAeT ee B ABHOM aige. B OTAM- ume OT STOFO, ABAYKTMBHbIe Paccy>XIeHxKA BBOAAT HOByIO UHcbopMayMio. MoxHo nosToMy cka3aTb, YTO ech AeAYKYMA COXpaHAeT MCTHHY, TO ab- AKA MujeT ee. Pa3yMeeTcA, 970 NPOUCXOAMT 3a CYeT NPMBNeYeHHMA HO- Bol MHcbopMayn B NOCbiNkax. BraroyapA STOMy CTaHOBUTCA BO3MOKHbIM Pacwvpatb v obobwjaTb sHakne. B npmHyvne nio6bie o6obweHxuA, pac- WHPAIOWMe HALe 3HAHVe, NPUBOAAT K BEPOATHBIM 3aKMOYEHMAM, HO ero cTeneH» NpM aBayKyMM Kak MeXaHM3Me NOUCKA UCTHHb! MOXET GbiTb yBe- amyeHa. C BO3MOXKHOCTbIO PaClMPeHWA 3HAHKA CBAIAHA TaloKe CNOCOBHOCTS @OAYKTMBHbIX yMosaKnio4eHui K copmupoBaHuid Gonbwe ero onpege- NEHHOCTH. Saknio¥eHMA aGAyKLIMM, B OTAMYME OT NPOCTOM COBOKyNHOCTH amnupmyecknx cbakTos, ¢ GonblMM AOBepneM MoryT 6biTb Ucnonb30BaHb! Mpv MocTpoeHMH TeopKv. VMeHHO nosTOMy MbI Gonbie yBepeHb! B BbIBO- fax TeOpM, YeM B HAEXHOCTH OTAeMbHbIX SKCNEPUMEHTOB, Ha KOTOPbIX OHa OCHOBbIBaeTCA. MOXHO CkagaTb, YTO aGgyKUMA cnocoGcTByeT noncKy TeX CXEM, C OMOLbIO KOTOPbIX M3 COBOKYNHOCTH MMeIOIMXCA sMnupHue- CKMX JaHHbIX MOTYT ObIT> Hali[eHb! BOSMOXKHbIE NYTH K HOBbIM OTKPbITHAM. Bocnpuathe cxeM ABNeHMi, ykasbIBaeT XSHCOH, UrpaeT YeHTPanbHylo pont B OGbACHeHMY cbakTos. Mo-BuanMomy, 3TMM CoobpaxkeHVeM OH py- KOBOACTBOBaricA, Kora HaBan HasBaHve cBoel KHUTe «CXeMbI OTKPbI- Twa». Cam Mupe oco60e BHuMaHie obpalan Ha TO, YTO abpyKya Bcerna HauMHaeTCA C aHann3a UM OObepMHEHMA pasHoobpasHbix HaGniogaeMbix chaktos, 4T06b! BbIABAT NpeANoNaraemyio CBASb Mexay HAMM. MeHHO 3 Bax, 3111 wa = = o x s = »'S. Cpegn 3anagHbIx YYeHbIX CTb «{Py3bA OTKDBITHA», CTOPOHHMKM UccnepoBaHuA NpoGNem Hay4HOrO TBOPYECTBA C NOMOL|LIO KOHUIENTYANbHbIX CpeacTB cbunococbyn KM MeTO- jj Gonormm Hayxv. Ho wMeeTca HeMano lM TaK”x, KOTOpbIe NpogonKatoT Ha- ] CTavBaT Ha TOM, YTO cbunocodua BooGule He HOMKHa 3aHMMaTECA TakH- | Mu npo6nemamy, T. e. MO cyT™ pena oTcTamBaloT npexHee oTAeNeHKe “ "4, Kak MbI nonbitanuch NoKasatb, XSHCOH, Kak M Ho Hero Nvpc, cTpemn- NWCb AOKAzaTb, 4TO TPaAMUMOHHbIe bOpMbl yMO3aKNIONeHWMi — HeAYKUMA M WHOYKUMA — HeNb3A NPHMeHATe ANA avannsa pocta Hay4HOrO SHaHMA, M NOSTOMY BbINBHHYNN B NPOTHBOBeC MM AO AKIO Kak OCOBbIM MeTOg Nno- vicka OObACHMTeNbHEIX rinoTes. KOHe4HO, TOT MeTON HyKqaeTCA B fanb- Heiwel paspadotke 4 OGOCHOBaHMK, a CaMa MorMueckas eFo CTpyKTypa Tpe6yeT yrouHeHna, 'S Nicles Th. Introductory essay: scientific discovery and the future of philosophy of science // Scientific discovery, logic and rationality. Dordrecht, 1980. P. 7. “ Laudan L. Why was the logic of discovery abandoned // Scientific discovery, logic and rationality. Dordrecht, 1980. P. 173.ABAYKUMA M METOAONOMMA HAYYHOLO NOUCKA B Hactosujee Bpema mHTepec K aGAyKLMM, KaK MK APyTMM MofensaM MOVICKA HayYHbIX VICTHH, BHOBb BO3POQUNICA. SaLMTHHKM abpyKTMBHbIX PaccyXHeHni BbIABNraIoT Tenepb HOBbIE APryMeHTbI B UX Nonb3y. Tak, C. Naasona w3 yHusepcuteta r. XenbcnHk cunTaer, YTO aGgyKyMA BCE ele MOxeT paccmaTpHBaTbCA Kak BECbMa OGeWlaIOUIMh KAHAMDAT B Ka- YeCTBE NOFMKM OTKPbITHA, ECM NPMHATb BO BHAMAHMe 3HaYeHue cmpame- 2ud Gna novcka rvnotes. {ina oGocHoBaHiA CBOeFO yTBEPKEHMA OH CCbI- naeTca Ha TpyMb! M3BeCTHOTO cpvHcKOrO NorMka A, XWHTMKKM, KOTOPbIM NlogvepkveaeT pasnuune Mexny OayMa Byam npasvn paccyxgeHni. K nepsomy svay npapin, Ha3biBaeMbIx OeduHOMOpHbIMU, OH OTHOCHT Npaguna, KOTOpble perynMpyioT NPaBMNbHOCTS M HENPaBANbHOCT’ yMO- saKmioeHnit, Takwe npaBna MOXKHO CpaBHMTb c npasvnamm WaxmaTHoh Wrpbl, ONPeAENAIOWIMMM XOpbI OTAeNbHbIX cburyp. MloqoGHO Tomy, Kak Hx SHAHVE OTHIOA He XapakTepyayeT MaCTepCTBa MIpoKa, Tak M 3HaHVe 10- TM4eCKMX NpaBUN He ONpefenaeT yMeHA paccyKqatb acbcbexTHBHO. UTo- Obl OBNADETe VICKYCCTBOM paccyKoeHWi, HEOOXOQMMO HE TOMbKO 3HaTb AeduHOTOPHbIe NpaBuna, HO GonbWe BCerO yMemo VcNONbsOBaTb cmpa- meeuyeckue acnekTbi paccyxqexni. Mo MHEHUIO XMHTUKKM, 3TH ACNekTbI VTHOpMpYIOTCA B VCCNefoBaHKAX No dunocodun HaykM, B YACTHOCTH NK avanwse abqykTMBHbIX paccyxeHHiN. «MpaBMNbHOCTb ab_yKTHBHBIX yMO- gaknioyeHnis, — NuWeT OH, ~ OMKHA GbITb OBOCHOBaHa CKOpelt C NOMO- UjbO CTpaTermHecKMx NPMHUMNOB, YeM DecMHOTOpHeIMK npaBunaMy»'>. Paccmatpneaa a6aykunto Kak OAMH V3 BAQOB MCCNeqoBaHiKA, pacwuMpsto- uywx HaWe 3HaHMe, XHTHKKa, TEM HE MEHEe, HE TOBOPMT O Heli Kak 0 Ca- MOCTOATENbHOM cnocobe paccyxqeHnit. B otnuune oT Hero MaaBona no- Naraet, YTo aGDyKUMA MOET PaCcMaTpMBaTbCA Kak OTBENbHbIA cnoco6 YMO3AKNIOUEHMA, CNM YYMTbIBATb CTpatermu, KOTOPbIe C HAM HeMocpen- CTBEHHO CBAaHbI'®. Crpaters, KOHeYHO, NOMOraeT HaXOgWTb nyywMe OGbACHEHMA ChakTOB NpM yueTe BO3MOXKHO Gonbwero MaccnBa MHcbopMa- wn. B TaKOM cnyyae rinotesy, KOTOpyio paccmatpvBan AYMHCTeMH Kak KOHTPNDYMep ABNACTCA HeyAOBNeTBOpUTeNbHOM MMeHHO CO CTpaTermue- CKO TOUKN apeHMA NoTOMy, YTO OHa He CornacyeTca co BceM obbemoM MHcopMalinn, OTHOCALeNICA K HAHHOMY cnyyal0. HeTpyAHo, OfHaKO, NOHATb, YTO BKMIOYeHHe CTpaterMu B coctas a6- AYKUMM O3HAYAET OTKAS OT PACCMOTPEHMA €€ KAK YUCTO NOrMYeCKOrO YMO- 3aKNIOYeHMA ~M NpeBpaujeHne B NOTMKO-MeTOgONOrMYeCKyIO ONepal|Hid. 'S Hintikka J. What is abduction The fundamental problem of contemporary epistemology // Transactions of the Charles S. Pierce Society. 1999, Ne 34/3. P. 513. '© Paavola S. Abduction as a logic and methodology of discovery. The importance of strategies. 2004. P. 3 (uur. mo ceresoii wepeun: http // www. Helsinki.fi/science/commens/abductionstrategies.htm|). kagemn': | 38PU. 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