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It is argued that if trade falls then protectionism will have many negative effects.
Protectionism leads to retaliation and therefore higher import prices and
higher consumer prices.
Consumers will have to pay higher prices for imports of goods (e.g.
electronic goods from China, food from Africa)
Higher prices lead to lower overall demand causing job losses in other
industries
Exporters will see a fall in demand, causing less output and possibly
unemployment
Protectionism can encourage inefficient firms to stay in business and there
is less scope for specialisation and economies of scale.
Protectionism can keep smaller national firms which can’t benefit from the
same economies of scale. There is Less competitive pressures for firms
and economies to cut costs.
Benefits of Free Trade
Diagram of tariff protectionism
Thi
s diagram shows the welfare effect of placing a tariff on imports.
Losers from tariffs
Domestic consumers who pay higher prices (P1 to P2). There is lost
consumer surplus of areas (1+2+3+4)
Foreign exporting firms. Exports fall from (Q4-Q1) to (Q3-Q2)
Domestic exporting firms hit by retaliatory tariffs (not shown in above
diagram)
There is a net welfare loss to the domestic economy of (2+4)
Other firms in the economy who see lower demand. Becuase prices rise
for this good, consumers have less disposable income to spend on other
goods. Therefore, other firms see a decline in demand.
Winners from Tariffs
Some argue, that the benefits of free trade ignore many good reasons to impose
tariffs. In particular, it is argued free trade discriminates against developing
economies. It is argued developing countries need an element of protection to
enable new industries to grow and their economies to diversify. See arguments
against free trade
In the case of the UK, many of these arguments don’t really apply. However, for
developing countries carefully implemented protectionism may help develop their
economies. There are also good environmental reasons for promoting an
element of protectionism.
Conclusion
Since the UK relies on trade for much of its economy, a rise in protectionism will
harm the UK economy (perhaps more than other economies). Higher tariffs will
definitely lead to lower exports, lower imports and a lower rate of economic
growth.
However, it is worth noting that 60% of UK trade is now with the EU. Therefore, if
it is just protectionism about non-EU countries, the effect will be smaller and the
impact not so severe.