Professional Documents
Culture Documents
SSRN Id2766099
SSRN Id2766099
Beyond Model Risk Management to Model Risk Arbitrage for FinTech Era
How to Navigate ‘Uncertainty’... When ‘Models’ Are ‘Wrong’... and ‘Knowledge’... ‘Imperfect’!
Knight Reconsidered Again: Risk, Uncertainty, & Profit beyond ZIRP & NIRP
Yogi
Dr. Yogesh Malhotra
CISSP, CISA, CEH
PhD, MSQF, MSCS, MSNCS, MSAcc, MBAEco, BE, CEng
www.yogeshmalhotra.com (646) 770-7993 dr.yogesh.malhotra@gmail.com
Global Risk Management Network, LLC
757 Warren Road, Cornell Business & Technology Park, Ithaca, NY 14852-4892
Dedicated to
Lights Out:
A Cyberattack,
A Nation
Unprepared,
Surviving the
Aftermath
MODEL RISK ARBITRAGE AND “THE BIG SHORT” FOR THE OPEN SYSTEMS FINANCE:
REFLEXIVITY THEORY, HEGELIAN DIALECTIC, AND, BLACK HAT CYBER FINANCE
[10]
Electronic copy available at: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2766099
Model Risk Arbitrage for Open Systems Finance
Uncertainty Modeling & Model Risk Management for Cyber-Finance
www.ModelRiskArbitrage.com www.FutureOfFinance.org
http://www.yogeshmalhotra.com/ModelRiskManagement.html
“If we are to understand the workings of the economic system we must examine
the meaning and significance of uncertainty; and to this end some inquiry
into the nature and function of knowledge itself is necessary.”
— Frank H. Knight in Risk, Uncertainty, and Profit, 1921
“As far as the propositions of mathematics refer to reality they are not
certain, and so far as they are certain, they do not refer to reality.”
— Albert Einstein (1879-1955), U. S. physicist, born in Germany
“It is this "true" uncertainty, and not risk, as has been argued, which forms
the basis of a valid theory of profit and accounts for the divergence between
actual and theoretical competition... It is a world of change in which we live,
and a world of uncertainty...”
— Frank H. Knight in Risk, Uncertainty, and Profit, 1921
Extending Above Observations to High Frequency Trading: FIX, FAST (Beyond ‘Flash Boys’).
4. A Risk Management Framework for Penetration Testing of Global Banking & Finance Networks VoIP Protocols
(Malhotra 2014).
5. Future of Bitcoin & Statistical Probabilistic Quantitative Methods: Interview, Hong Kong Institute of CPAs
(Malhotra 2014).
6. Bitcoin Protocol: Model of ‘Cryptographic Proof ’ Based Global Crypto-Currency & Electronic Payments
Systems (Malhotra 2013).
7. Cryptology Beyond Shannon's Information Theory: Number Field Sieve Cryptanalysis Algorithms for Most
Efficient Prime Factorization on Composites (Malhotra 2013).
8. Quantum Computing, Quantum Cryptography, Shannon’s Entropy and Next Generation Encryption &
Decryption (Malhotra 2013)… One more reference: AI, Expert Systems, Machine Learning, Cognitive
Computing (Malhotra 2001) – inspired by Dr. John Holland, inventor of Genetic Algorithms
http://www.yogeshmalhotra.com/blackswans.html
“The new business model of the Information Age, however, is marked by fundamental,
not incremental, change. Businesses can't plan long-term; instead, they must shift to
a more flexible “anticipation-of-surprise” model.”
-- Dr. Yogesh Malhotra in CIO Magazine interview, Sep. 15, 1999.
Princeton Quant Trading Conference 2016 @ , April 16, 2016 [15]
Conference sponsors include:copy available at: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2766099
Electronic
www.yogeshmalhotra.com Copyright, Yogesh Malhotra, PhD, 2016
Model Risk Arbitrage for Open Systems Finance
Uncertainty Modeling & Model Risk Management for Cyber-Finance
www.ModelRiskArbitrage.com www.FutureOfFinance.org
http://www.yogeshmalhotra.com/SR11-7_OCC2011-12.html
[20]
Electronic copy available at: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2766099
Model Risk Arbitrage for Open Systems Finance
Uncertainty Modeling & Model Risk Management for Cyber-Finance
www.ModelRiskArbitrage.com www.FutureOfFinance.org
http://www.yogeshmalhotra.com/blackswans.html
Beyond Model Risk Management (MRM) to Model Risk Arbitrage
Beyond Prediction to ‘Anticipation of Surprise’
Beyond Model Risk of Assuming Perfect Knowledge
Beyond Model Risk of Confusing Past with Future
Beyond Model Risk of Normal Science and its ‘Silos’
Beyond Model Risk of Confusing Finance with Physics
Beyond Model Risk of Confusing Model with Reality
Beyond Model Risk of Confusing Data with Information
Beyond Model Risk of Efficient Markets Assumption
Beyond Model Risk of Market Equilibrium Assumption
Beyond Model Risk of ‘Physics Envy’ and ‘Physics Phobia’
“Obsolete what you know before others obsolete it and profit by creating
the challenges and opportunities others haven't even thought about”
- Dr. Yogesh Malhotra, in Inc. Technology Interview, 2002,
- As noted by: U.S. Office of the Under Secretary of Defense (Comptroller) & DISA
Princeton Quant Trading Conference 2016 @ , April 16, 2016 [21]
Conference sponsors include:copy available at: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2766099
Electronic
www.yogeshmalhotra.com Copyright, Yogesh Malhotra, PhD, 2016
Model Risk Arbitrage for Open Systems Finance
Uncertainty Modeling & Model Risk Management for Cyber-Finance
www.ModelRiskArbitrage.com www.FutureOfFinance.org
http://www.yogeshmalhotra.com/risk.html
“The complex financial models that got us into this mess too often mask human
nature behind false limitations of risk ...Financial theory has tried hard to
emulate physics and discover its own elegant, universal laws. But finance and
economics are concerned with the human world of monetary value. Markets
are made of people who are influenced by events, by their feelings about
events, and by their expectations of other people’s feelings about
events...Financial theories written in mathematical notation - aka models -
imply a false sense of precision. Good modelers know that... Financial
markets are alive. A model, however beautiful, is an artifice…”
“…To confuse the model with the world is to embrace a future disaster in
the belief that humans obey mathematical principles.”
--- Dr. Emanuel Derman, and, Dr. Paul Wilmott in Financial Models Must Be
Clean and Simple, Business Week, Bloomberg, December 31, 2008.
Uncertainty & Knowledge: Model Risk of Normal Science and its ‘Silos’
http://www.brint.com/common/random.txt
“From a management point of view, the current
division of human knowledge into disciplines is
managerially stupid and an often evil design of
science, which blocks off inquiry into critical
issues because the issues don't fit into the
disciplines.” - Charles West Churchman
“Humans are not Machines...”
http://www.yogeshmalhotra.com/cyberrisk.html
http://www.yogeshmalhotra.com/risk.html
http://www.yogeshmalhotra.com/GriffissCyberspace.html
“Over time it appears the p-value has become a gatekeeper for whether work is publishable, at least
in some fields,” said Jessica Utts, ASA president. “This apparent editorial bias leads to the ‘file-
drawer effect,’ in which research with statistically significant outcomes are much more likely to
get published, while other work that might well be just as important scientifically is never seen in
print. It also leads to practices called by such names as ‘p-hacking’ and ‘data dredging’ that
emphasize the search for small p-values over other statistical and scientific reasoning.”
http://jama.jamanetwork.com/article.aspx?articleid=201218
“The p-value was never intended to be a substitute for scientific reasoning,” said Ron Wasserstein,
the ASA’s executive director. “Well-reasoned statistical arguments contain much more than the
value of a single number and whether that number exceeds an arbitrary threshold. The ASA
statement is intended to steer research into a ‘post p0.05’ era."
Uncertainty & Knowledge: Model Risk of ‘Physics Envy’ and ‘Physics Phobia’
http://www.brint.com/common/random.txt
“The real problem is not whether machines think, but whether men do.”
- B.F. Skinner “Humans are not Machines...”
“Ours is the age which is proud of machines that think, and suspicious of men
who try to.” - H. Mumford Jones “Machines are not Human...”
“Lo! Men have become the tools of their tools.” - Henry Thoreau
Intuition… Imagination… Instinct… Insight
“Intuition takes intimate knowledge of the world that can be acquired
only by careful observation and painstaking effort.”- Emanuel Derman
http://www.brint.org/expertsystems.pdf Morris Kline “Mathematics is manmade…”*
“reflexivity of modelers”*
http://statweb.stanford.edu/~tibs/ElemStatLearn/printings/ESLII_print10.pdf
• Algorithms
• Data Mining
• Machine Learning
• Bayesian Analysis
[46]
Electronic copy available at: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2766099
Model Risk Arbitrage for Open Systems Finance
Uncertainty Modeling & Model Risk Management for Cyber-Finance
www.ModelRiskArbitrage.com www.FutureOfFinance.org
Risk, Uncertainty, and Profit for the Cyber Era: ‘Knight Reconsidered’
http://ssrn.com/abstract=2553547
“Normality has been an accepted wisdom in economics and finance for a
century or more. Yet in real-world systems, nothing could be less normal
than normality. Tails should not be unexpected, for they are the rule…
As the world becomes increasingly integrated – financially, economically,
socially – interactions among the moving parts may make for potentially
fatter tails. Catastrophe risk may be on the rise.”
-- Andrew G Haldane, Executive Director, Financial Stability and member of the
Financial Policy Committee and Benjamin Nelson, Economist, Financial Stability, Bank
of England, in 'Tails of the unexpected' speech at “The Credit Crisis Five Years On:
Unpacking the Crisis”, 8 June 2012.
[48]
www.yogeshmalhotra.com 48
Electronic copy available at: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2766099
Copyright, Yogesh Malhotra, PhD, 2016
Model Risk Arbitrage for Open Systems Finance
Uncertainty Modeling & Model Risk Management for Cyber-Finance
www.ModelRiskArbitrage.com www.FutureOfFinance.org
What if their Black Swans are our Grey Swans or White Swans
Damaging Consequences of
Low and Negative Interest
Rates on the Financial Sector
Approximately 38% of
developed country government
bonds outside the US carried
negative yields... 2016 could
be the year we start to see
some unintended disruptions
in the financial system from
these unorthodox conditions.
Let us do a
thought
experiment…
[51]
www.yogeshmalhotra.com 51
Electronic copy available at: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2766099
Copyright, Yogesh Malhotra, PhD, 2016
Model Risk Arbitrage for Open Systems Finance
Uncertainty Modeling & Model Risk Management for Cyber-Finance
www.ModelRiskArbitrage.com www.FutureOfFinance.org
[52]
www.yogeshmalhotra.com Electronic copy available at: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2766099
Copyright, Yogesh Malhotra, PhD, 2016
Model Risk Arbitrage for Open Systems Finance
Uncertainty Modeling & Model Risk Management for Cyber-Finance
www.ModelRiskArbitrage.com www.FutureOfFinance.org
Central Bankers Can ‘Create’ ‘Money’.
So can Black Hat Hackers!
http://www.cs.bu.edu/~goldbe/papers/NTPattack.pdf
[55]
www.yogeshmalhotra.com Electronic copy available at: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2766099
Copyright, Yogesh Malhotra, PhD, 2016
Model Risk Arbitrage for Open Systems Finance
Uncertainty Modeling & Model Risk Management for Cyber-Finance
www.ModelRiskArbitrage.com www.FutureOfFinance.org
http://yogeshmalhotra.com/BitcoinProtocol.html
http://yogeshmalhotra.com/Future_of_Bitcoin.html
http://yogeshmalhotra.com/BitcoinProtocol.html
http://yogeshmalhotra.com/Future_of_Bitcoin.html
[63]
Electronic copy available at: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2766099
Model Risk Arbitrage for Open Systems Finance
Uncertainty Modeling & Model Risk Management for Cyber-Finance
www.ModelRiskArbitrage.com www.FutureOfFinance.org
2016
FinTech: USA, UK, Europe, Asia
China Fintech Passed Disruption Tipping Point,
Report Says
Bloomberg, March 31, 2016
Fintech firms may have more clients than banks: Citigroup
Internet firms taken market share in e-commerce, payments
BizTech
KM-Tech
FinTech
“Yogesh Malhotra says his vision is to fill the gaps between business and technology, data
and knowledge, and, theory and practice...” -- in Fortune Interview, June 1998
P2P
P2P
P2P
P2P
Apps
ATMs
Branches
Soft Computing Models, Artificial Neural Networks, Fuzzy Logic, Genetic Algorithms,
Bayesian Neural Networks, Support Vector Machines, Credal Nets, Quantum Computing
http://www.kmnetwork.com/RealTime.pdf
Princeton Quant Trading Conference 2016 @ , April 16, 2016 [74]
Conference sponsors include:copy available at: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2766099
Electronic
www.yogeshmalhotra.com Copyright, Yogesh Malhotra, PhD, 2016
Model Risk Arbitrage for Open Systems Finance
Uncertainty Modeling & Model Risk Management for Cyber-Finance
www.ModelRiskArbitrage.com www.FutureOfFinance.org
FinTech: Today: More Tech than Fin… More Cyber than Tech… Part Crypto
* *
“a bank
that's just
an app”
The deep data algorithms detect anomalies in the financial markets and anticipate price
movements hours (or days) in advance of the event. Unlike competitive solutions, their real
time analysis does not rely on historical data or previous disruptive events.
Early detection of
cluster formations
(‘anomaly’)
providing advance
warning of a
disruptive event.
[84]
Electronic copy available at: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2766099
Model Risk Arbitrage for Open Systems Finance
Uncertainty Modeling & Model Risk Management for Cyber-Finance
www.ModelRiskArbitrage.com www.FutureOfFinance.org
Risk, Uncertainty, and Profit for the Cyber Era: ‘Knight Reconsidered’
http://ssrn.com/abstract=2553547
“As apparent from the above analysis of nascent cyber risk assessment and cyber
insurance modeling, these applications and practices are predominantly reliant upon the
VaR model. Based upon recognized limitation of VaR in terms of model risks, tail
risks, and systemic risks, one comes away with the unsettling conclusion that given
very high interdependence and correlations characterizing cyber risks, application of
VaR for cyber risk assessment and cyber insurance is fraught with peril. Based upon the
details available in publicly available sources on the applications of VaR in cyber risk
assessment and cyber insurance modeling, it appears that VaR is being adopted as a
‘black box’ in this domain. Our analysis of those applications presented earlier, that
most of those commercial practice applications of VaR in cyber risk assessment and
cyber insurance modeling did not consider model risks, tail risks, or systemic risks at all.
Furthermore, what is even more alarming is the fact that such ‘blackbox’ reliance
upon VaR (or any other model for that matter) is the strongest indicator of model
risk calling to attention the most critical need for model risk management.”
-- Yogesh Malhotra in the Post-Doctoral Thesis pioneering Cyber-Finance, 2015
http://www.cs.bu.edu/~goldbe/papers/NTPattack.pdf
[88]
www.yogeshmalhotra.com Electronic copy available at: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2766099
Copyright, Yogesh Malhotra, PhD, 2016
Model Risk Arbitrage for Open Systems Finance
Uncertainty Modeling & Model Risk Management for Cyber-Finance
www.ModelRiskArbitrage.com www.FutureOfFinance.org
[89]
www.yogeshmalhotra.com Electronic copy available at: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2766099
Copyright, Yogesh Malhotra, PhD, 2016
Model Risk Arbitrage for Open Systems Finance
Uncertainty Modeling & Model Risk Management for Cyber-Finance
www.ModelRiskArbitrage.com www.FutureOfFinance.org
[90]
www.yogeshmalhotra.com Electronic copy available at: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2766099
Copyright, Yogesh Malhotra, PhD, 2016
Model Risk Arbitrage for Open Systems Finance
Uncertainty Modeling & Model Risk Management for Cyber-Finance
www.ModelRiskArbitrage.com www.FutureOfFinance.org
cyveillance.com
http://ssrn.com/abstract=2693886
http://www.yogeshmalhotra.com/cyberrisk.html
Princeton Quant Trading Conference 2016 @ , April 16, 2016 [96]
Conference sponsors include:copy available at: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2766099
Electronic
www.yogeshmalhotra.com Copyright, Yogesh Malhotra, PhD, 2016
Model Risk Arbitrage for Open Systems Finance
Uncertainty Modeling & Model Risk Management for Cyber-Finance
www.ModelRiskArbitrage.com www.FutureOfFinance.org
watchguardservices.co.uk
[100]
Electronic copy available at: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2766099
Model Risk Arbitrage for Open Systems Finance
Uncertainty Modeling & Model Risk Management for Cyber-Finance
www.ModelRiskArbitrage.com www.FutureOfFinance.org
Beyond Model Risks of VaR [& NHST]: MRM, ES, EVT, Bayesian,...
How to Manage Risk (After Risk Management Has Failed) Fall 2010 Vol. 52
Bayesian modeling instead of VaR would minimize risk management failures
- Given key role of ‘subjective judgment’ in the Bayesian methodology
Bayesian Inference
Markov Chain Monte Carlo Models, Gibbs Sampling & Metropolis Algorithm
for High-Dimensionality Complex Stochastic Problems. (Malhotra 2014)
http://ssrn.com/abstract=2553537
Bayesian inference for doing high dimension parameter space analyses
- Feasible with Markov Chain Monte Carlo statistical computing algorithms
- Metropolis Hastings algorithm and Gibbs Sampling algorithm
MCMC: A common general quantitative method to find approximate
solutions to computationally complex problems in polynomial time…
Source:
stackoverflow.com
Metropolis Algorithm :
Metropolis-Hastings Algorithm :
Risk, Uncertainty, and Profit for the Cyber Era: Model Risk
Management of Cyber Insurance Models Using Quantitative Finance
and Advanced Analytics. (Malhotra 2015)
http://ssrn.com/abstract=2538401
Source: Bayesian Networks with Imprecise Probabilities: Theory and Applications to Knowledge-
based Systems and Classification: A Tutorial by Alessandro Antonucci, Giorgio Corani and Denis
Maua´, IJCAI-13 Beijing, August 5th, 2013.
http://ijcai13.org/files/tutorial_slides/te1-1.pdf
Princeton Quant Trading Conference 2016 @ , April 16, 2016 [109]
Conference sponsors include:copy available at: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2766099
Electronic
www.yogeshmalhotra.com Copyright, Yogesh Malhotra, PhD, 2016
Model Risk Arbitrage for Open Systems Finance
Uncertainty Modeling & Model Risk Management for Cyber-Finance
www.ModelRiskArbitrage.com www.FutureOfFinance.org
Source: Bayesian Networks with Imprecise Probabilities: Theory and Applications to Knowledge-
based Systems and Classification: A Tutorial by Alessandro Antonucci, Giorgio Corani and Denis
Maua´, IJCAI-13 Beijing, August 5th, 2013.
Source: Bayesian Networks with Imprecise Probabilities: Theory and Applications to Knowledge-
based Systems and Classification: A Tutorial by Alessandro Antonucci, Giorgio Corani and Denis
Maua´, IJCAI-13 Beijing, August 5th, 2013.
Source: Bayesian Networks with Imprecise Probabilities: Theory and Applications to Knowledge-
based Systems and Classification: A Tutorial by Alessandro Antonucci, Giorgio Corani and Denis
Maua´, IJCAI-13 Beijing, August 5th, 2013.
Source: Firoozye, Nick & Ariff, Faziah. Uncertainty and Imprecise Probability in Post-Crisis Risk
Management, Nomura Internal Presentation on Managing Uncertainty, Mitigating Risk. 2016.
Source: Firoozye, Nick & Ariff, Faziah. Uncertainty and Imprecise Probability in Post-Crisis Risk
Management, Nomura Internal Presentation on Managing Uncertainty, Mitigating Risk. 2016.
Source: Firoozye, Nick & Ariff, Faziah. Uncertainty and Imprecise Probability in Post-Crisis Risk
Management, Nomura Internal Presentation on Managing Uncertainty, Mitigating Risk. 2016.
Source: Firoozye, Nick & Ariff, Faziah. Uncertainty and Imprecise Probability in Post-Crisis Risk
Management, Nomura Internal Presentation on Managing Uncertainty, Mitigating Risk. 2016.
20-Year
Focus of
R&D
FinRM.org
Source: Firoozye, Nick & Ariff, Faziah. Uncertainty and Imprecise Probability in Post-Crisis Risk
Management, Nomura Internal Presentation on Managing Uncertainty, Mitigating Risk. 2016.
Source: Shang, Kailan & Hossen, Zakir. Applying Fuzzy Logic to Risk Assessment and Decision-Making,
Casualty Actuarial Society, Canadian Institute of Actuaries, Society of Actuaries. 2013.
https://www.soa.org/Files/Research/Projects/research-2013-fuzzy-logic.pdf
Princeton Quant Trading Conference 2016 @ , April 16, 2016 [118]
Conference sponsors include:copy available at: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2766099
Electronic
www.yogeshmalhotra.com Copyright, Yogesh Malhotra, PhD, 2016
Model Risk Arbitrage for Open Systems Finance
Uncertainty Modeling & Model Risk Management for Cyber-Finance
www.ModelRiskArbitrage.com www.FutureOfFinance.org
Source: Shang, Kailan & Hossen, Zakir. Applying Fuzzy Logic to Risk Assessment and Decision-Making,
Casualty Actuarial Society, Canadian Institute of Actuaries, Society of Actuaries. 2013.
https://www.soa.org/Files/Research/Projects/research-2013-fuzzy-logic.pdf
Princeton Quant Trading Conference 2016 @ , April 16, 2016 [119]
Conference sponsors include:copy available at: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2766099
Electronic
www.yogeshmalhotra.com Copyright, Yogesh Malhotra, PhD, 2016
Model Risk Arbitrage for Open Systems Finance
Uncertainty Modeling & Model Risk Management for Cyber-Finance
www.ModelRiskArbitrage.com www.FutureOfFinance.org
Source: Shang, Kailan & Hossen, Zakir. Applying Fuzzy Logic to Risk Assessment and Decision-Making,
Casualty Actuarial Society, Canadian Institute of Actuaries, Society of Actuaries. 2013.
https://www.soa.org/Files/Research/Projects/research-2013-fuzzy-logic.pdf
Princeton Quant Trading Conference 2016 @ , April 16, 2016 [120]
Conference sponsors include:copy available at: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2766099
Electronic
www.yogeshmalhotra.com Copyright, Yogesh Malhotra, PhD, 2016
Model Risk Arbitrage for Open Systems Finance
Uncertainty Modeling & Model Risk Management for Cyber-Finance
www.ModelRiskArbitrage.com www.FutureOfFinance.org
Source: Shang, Kailan & Hossen, Zakir. Applying Fuzzy Logic to Risk Assessment and Decision-Making,
Casualty Actuarial Society, Canadian Institute of Actuaries, Society of Actuaries. 2013.
https://www.soa.org/Files/Research/Projects/research-2013-fuzzy-logic.pdf
Princeton Quant Trading Conference 2016 @ , April 16, 2016 [121]
Conference sponsors include:copy available at: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2766099
Electronic
www.yogeshmalhotra.com Copyright, Yogesh Malhotra, PhD, 2016
Model Risk Arbitrage for Open Systems Finance
Uncertainty Modeling & Model Risk Management for Cyber-Finance
www.ModelRiskArbitrage.com www.FutureOfFinance.org
Source: Shang, Kailan & Hossen, Zakir. Applying Fuzzy Logic to Risk Assessment and Decision-Making,
Casualty Actuarial Society, Canadian Institute of Actuaries, Society of Actuaries. 2013.
https://www.soa.org/Files/Research/Projects/research-2013-fuzzy-logic.pdf
Princeton Quant Trading Conference 2016 @ , April 16, 2016 [122]
Conference sponsors include:copy available at: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2766099
Electronic
www.yogeshmalhotra.com Copyright, Yogesh Malhotra, PhD, 2016
Model Risk Arbitrage for Open Systems Finance
Uncertainty Modeling & Model Risk Management for Cyber-Finance
www.ModelRiskArbitrage.com www.FutureOfFinance.org
Quantum Computing
Malhotra, Y. Quantum Computing, Quantum Cryptography, Shannon’s Entropy and
Next Generation Encryption & Decryption, November 2013. (Invited Presentation)
Information entropy of 27-char. language ~ 4.8 bits per char.
Information entropy of 5,000-char. language ~ 12.3 bits per char.
Entropy increases with a larger repertoire of symbols.
Entropy increases when meanings detached from symbols.
Quantum computer: qubits… can be 0, 1, or any superposition of
both. n-qubit system: superposition of up to 2n states
simultaneously. 2k dimensional vector (a, b, c, d, e, f, g, h)…
complex values: |a|2 + |b|2 + …+ |h|2 = 1,
|x|2 is probability amplitude of respective state. Phase between any
two states (complex-valued coefficients )… meaningful.
Quantum Computing
Quantum Cryptography, Shor's algorithm, and Quantum Money
Integer Factorization of large primes and Discrete Logarithm problem.
Quantum computer efficiently find such factors using Shor's algorithm.
Decrypt many critical cryptographic systems in polynomial time:
RSA, secure Web pages, encrypted email, many other types of data.
“For a 1024-bit number, Shor's Algorithm requires on the order of 10243, about one
billion, operations. If each quantum operation took one second, our factorization would
last 34 years. If a quantum computer could run at the speed of today's electronic
computers (100 million instructions per second and up) then factorization of the 1024-
bit number would be a matter of seconds.”
IEEE
Rieffel Kaye An
Polak Introduction to
Quantum Quantum
Computing Computing
Some quantum cryptography systems
vulnerable to hacking, study shows
Quantum Money
NASA: Peter Shor
N-dimensional
Hilbert Space
FROM QUANTUM
ENTANGLEMENT
TO DATA
ANALYTICS
STARTUP
Quantum Computing
Seven stages in the development of quantum information processing
Dedicated to
Beyond Model Risk Management to Model Risk Arbitrage for FinTech Era
How to Navigate ‘Uncertainty’... When ‘Models’ Are ‘Wrong’... and ‘Knowledge’... ‘Imperfect’!
Knight Reconsidered Again: Risk, Uncertainty, & Profit beyond ZIRP & NIRP
Yogi
Dr. Yogesh Malhotra
CISSP, CISA, CEH
PhD, MSQF, MSCS, MSNCS, MSAcc, MBAEco, BE, CEng
www.yogeshmalhotra.com (646) 770-7993 dr.yogesh.malhotra@gmail.com
Global Risk Management Network, LLC
757 Warren Road, Cornell Business & Technology Park, Ithaca, NY 14852-4892