Market Overview

The global bakery products market is projected to witness a CAGR of 2.6% during the forecast
period, 2021-2026.
COVID-19 had a significant impact on the bakery products market. Many bakers had to close
their businesses during the peak of the pandemic due to insufficient sales of bakery products and
a shortage of workers. Along with, disruptions in logistic facilities due to the lockdown affected
the supply chain, leading to the unavailability of products as per consumers’ needs, ultimately
affecting the market. Moreover, the inaccessibility of raw materials hampered production in this
market during the lockdown. The smaller bakers in the unorganized sector were the most
affected by all of these constraints, as stated by the All India Bread Manufacturers Association.
On the other hand, bakery products (especially bread) have been a staple diet for people all over
the world for centuries. The convenience, accessibility, and nutrition profile associated with
them are the major factors that have sustained these products in the modern market. Bakery
products are included in people's daily diet not only in the developed economies but also in
underdeveloped or developing economies. All of these factors have contributed to the growth of
this market even during the lockdown, and they are expected to boost the growth of this market
over the forecast period.
Additionally, the rising trends of “natural nutrition”, “healthy living,” and “organic products”
have significantly increased the demand for whole wheat, light (low calorie), natural, and
additive-free bakery products. In recent years, growth in the sales of whole wheat, wholemeal,
and gluten-free bakery products is an important indication of this new trend of wellness in the
market. The increased availability of such specialized bakery products will further aid the market
growth during the forecast period.
Bread And Bakery Market Size in Pakistan
Pakistan ranks fifth among the world's most populous countries. According to official
calculations, the population of Pakistan has reached 219 million according to the figures formed
as a result of the Worldometer elaboration of the United Nations data. The workable labor force
in Pakistan constitutes 28% of the population. 50% of the population works in agriculture, 18%
in the manufacturing sector and 17% are engaged in trade. The unemployment rate is around 9%
in urban areas and 6% in rural areas. The agriculture sector has a big share in the economic
development of Pakistan. The agriculture sector constitutes approximately 21% of the gross

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domestic product in the country. The main agricultural products are; cotton, wheat, rice, sugar
cane, and corn.
WHEAT: MOST IMPORTANT SOURCE OF THE COUNTRY 
Wheat is perhaps one of the most important nutrients in Pakistan today and one of the primary
energy sources for most of the population. Wheat plays a central role in the country's food safety
and nutrition policies. Pakistan is the largest country in which flour is used as a staple food for
almost the entire population. Pakistan wheat flour mills grind half of the 14 to 15 million tons of
wheat harvested every year in Pakistan. Pakistan wheat flour milling industry is among the
largest industries in Pakistan. Many of the flour mills are in the Punjab province, which accounts
for 66.78 percent of the total flour milling industry in Pakistan. Although the capacity utilization
rate is only 38 percent, new flour mills continue to be constructed and therefore profit margins
are quite low. The milling practices across Pakistan depend on the type and quality of wheat
flour demanded in the local market. In the province of Punjab, flour factories produce between
12 and 18 percent bran for chapatis made in tandoor and sheet metal. Extraction is higher in the
urban area; For the flat bread or Nan, between 55 and 60 percent of wheat is converted into flour.
The rest is divided between fine flour (Haida) demanded by industrialists and semolina (Suji)
used in sugar products. The flour milling industry in Pakistan is far behind the desired level in
the area stated below.
BREAD CONSUMPTION EXCEEDS 10 MILLION TONS
The revenue of the bread and bakery products market in Pakistan remained stable in 2010
compared to previous years and was realized as $26.1 billion. This figure reflects the total
revenue of manufacturers and importers (excluding logistics costs, retail marketing costs and
margins of retailers to be included in the final consumer price). The market value increased by an
annual average of +1.5% from 2007 to 2010; the trend remained relatively stable. The current
situation fluctuated between $25 and $28 billion until 2016. The most significant growth rate
occurred between the years 2017 and 2018. In 2017, the bread and bakery products market
reached 29.6 billion dollars from 27.4 billion dollars. In 2018, it increased to 32.6 billion dollars
with a much faster increase. It has been stable around these levels during the last two years. The
growth rate of bread and bakery products slowed down and remained at a low level between the
years 2018 and 2020. It is expected that the bread and bakery market will continue to grow in the
coming period.

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Revenue of the bread and bakery products market in Pakistan has increased significantly in 2018
when compared to the previous year, reaching $32.6 billion. This figure reflects the total revenue
of manufacturers and importers (excluding logistics costs, retail marketing costs and margins of
retailers to be included in the final consumer price). Although small fluctuations were observed,
the market value increased by an annual average of +2.2% from the year 2010 to 2018. The
growth rate was the most significant in the year 2018, with an increase of 11% compared to the
previous year. The bread and bakery products market reached 32.6 billion dollars that year.
On the basis of value, the estimated production of bread and bakery products at export prices in
2010 was realized as $18.5 billion. Total production value increased by an average of 7.9%
annually from the year 2007 to 2010; the trend model remained relatively stable with only tiny
fluctuations during the analyzed period. The growth rate was the fastest in 2008, with an increase
of 17% compared to the previous year. Bread and bakery products peaked in 2018 and are
expected to continue growing in the short term.
In Pakistan, the consumption of bread and bakery products remained at the level of 9.3 million
tons until 2010. Bread and bakery consumption continued to show a relatively flat trend. The
consumption of bread and bakery products, which remained below 10 million tons in terms of
tonnage for a long time, started to increase rapidly since 2017. Bread and bakery consumption
reached 10.2 million tons in that year. The consumption of bread and bakery products, which
continued to rise in 2018, peaked at 10.6 million tons. The increase in bread and bakery
consumption in the country is expected to reach even higher levels with rapid population growth.
MARKET DOMINATED BY DOMESTIC MANUFACTURERS
Fresh bread and various bakery products (8.6 million tons) constitute the product group with the
largest consumption volume, which makes up 91% of the total volume. In addition, fresh bread
and various bakery products are followed by gingerbread cookies, sweet biscuits and waffles
(689K tons).
Between 2007 and 2018, the average annual growth rate in terms of bread volume of fresh bread
and various bakeries and the bakery consumption was relatively low. As for the other consumed
products, the following average annual growth rates have been recorded: gingerbread, sweet
biscuits and waffles (-0.6% per year) and crispbread and rusks (+2.8% per year).
In terms of value, fresh bread and various bakeries ($24 billion) led the market alone. The second
position in the ranking is occupied by gingerbread, sweet biscuits and waffles ($2 billion).

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From 2007 to 2018, the annual average growth rate of fresh bread and various bakeries was
+1.3%. As for other consumed products, the following average annual growth rates have been
recorded: gingerbread, sweet biscuits and waffles (+ 0.4% per year) and crispbread and rusks (+
11.5% per year).
With the increasing demand for bread and bakery in Pakistan, the market is expected to continue
its increasing consumption trend over the next two decades. It is estimated that the market
performance will increase to 12 million tons by the end of the market volume by expanding with
the expected CAGR of +% since 2010.
In Pakistan, bread and bakery imports are negligibly small when compared to their production
volumes. Therefore, the share of imports in the total market was practically not available in both
volume and value. This has remained stable throughout the analyzed period, which means that
domestic producers have fully met the bread and bakery demand. This concrete trade surplus
reflects that the market continues to rise with domestic production and the industry is largely
involved in the global market, which is likely to continue also in the medium term.
Pakistan owns a variety of bread, commonly called “Roti”. From light types of bread to heavy
ghees and deep-fried types of bread, fluffy clay bakery bread, flat clay oven bread, bread filled
with vegetables, ground beef or sweet mix, flatbread that can be consumed with all those
delicious exotic Pakistani engravings, and pan pan bread which can be baked either thin-flat or
fluffy-thick.