Comparison and evaluation of two energy policies: Denmark and Colombia

Milton Chivatá Cárdenas

Edx username : miltonch

email : milton.chivata@suneoenergy.com

ENGY1x Climate Science and Policy

23 05 20
Introduction

Climate change is increasingly taken as a priority issue by most governments around the world as
its effects are seen globally including heat waves, sea level rise, coral bleaching and other well
documented events related to the global temperature increase.

To track the performance of the many measures adopted after Paris agreement, is important to
assess the effectiveness and suitability of the different policies countries have stablished to meet
nationally determined contributions. The purpose of this document is to compare and evaluate the
energy policies of Denmark and Colombia in the light of global GHG (Green House Emissions)
reductions efforts, not only by the bold performance data but also by including social and economic
factors within the analysis.

Colombia’s GHG emissions were 173.4 MtCO₂e in 2012 without Land Use and Land Use Change and
Forestry (LULUCF) (IDEAM et al 2015, p 50) whereas Denmark emitted 49.22 MtCO₂e GHG (UNFCCC
n.d.) excluding LULUCF in 2017. Combined emissions from both countries are well below 1 per cent
of global emissions which reached a total of 49.1 GtCO₂e in 2015 (Crippa, M et al 2019, p 15).

According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) “Human activities are
estimated to have caused approximately 1.0°C of global warming above pre-industrial levels, with a
likely range of 0.8°C to 1.2°C. Global warming is likely to reach 1.5°C between 2030 and 2052 if it
continues to increase at the current rate.” (IPCC 2018, p 4). This statement is consistent with
previous IPCC reports where a trend in temperature increase related to GHG emissions was already
identified and led to the United Nations (UN) to respond to this threat by setting up the Kyoto
protocol in 1997 and the Paris agreement, drafted in 2015 and signed by parties in 2016. This latter
recognizes the need for an urgent response to climate change, but also that a sustainable lifestyle
plays a key role in tackling the causes and effects of climate change.

Both nations, Colombia, and Denmark, have submitted their Intended Nationally Determined
Contribution (INDC) in line with the “Well below 2°C above pre-industrial levels” (UN 2020, p 3)
including GHG gases coming from recognized sources such as Energy, Industrial processes and
product use, Agriculture, Waste and LULUCF. Focusing on energy related emissions, Colombia
produced 78 MtCO₂e GHG in 2012 (IDEAM et al 2015, p 50) compared to 37.48 MtCO₂e for Denmark
in 2017 (UNFCCC n.d.), a 44.9 percent and a 76.1 percent of the total GHG emissions without LULUCF
respectively.

Determining the effectiveness of each policy is a challenging job as official data from each country
is not comparable or even released over the same years. However, data found at Climate Analysis
Indicators Tool (CAIT), retrieved from the climate watch website was the most comprehensive, up
to date source found at the time this research was made.

Denmark’s policy: Integrated National Energy and Climate Plan

(2019)

Located in northern Europe with a population of 5.8 million inhabitants is one of the wealthiest
countries in the world reaching a Gross National Income (GNI) per capita of 48.836 PPP, ranking
11th in the Human Development Index (HDI) published by the United Nations Development
Programme (UNPE) (UNPE 2020, p n.d.).

Most of Denmark’s energy supply -including transport sector- is still fossil fuel based as shown in
(Figure 1.)
Figure 1: Denmark’s energy mix as of 2015. Adapted from IEA (International Energy Agency) (2020).
Countries and Regions (website). Paris, France: International Energy Agency. Retrieved from
https://www.iea.org/countries

As Denmark is one of the European Union (EU) members, they are legally bonded to the EU28 INDC
submitted by the EU in 2015 where a goal of at least 40% reduction in GHG emissions is to be
achieved by 2030 (EU 2015, p 1). However, Denmark has set an even more ambitious goal of 70%
GHG reduction for 2030 relative to 1990 levels (Danish govt 2019, p 5) and Net Zero emissions by
2050 at the latest, according to the Integrated National Energy and Climate Plan (NECP). This plan
includes a series of strategies including: Decarbonization of GHG emissions and removals and
renewable energy, Energy efficiency, Energy Security, Internal energy market and research,
innovation, and competitiveness.
Figure 2: Denmark’s Integrated National Energy and Climate Plan (2019). Adapted from Danish Govt (Danish
Ministry of Climate, Energy and Utilities) (2019). Denmark’s Integrated National Energy and Climate Plan
under the Regulation of the European Parliament and of the Council on the Governance of the Energy Union
and Climate Action, December 2019. Retrieved from https://ens.dk/en/our-responsibilities/energy-climate-
politics/eu-energy-union-denmarks-national-energy-and-climate and
https://kefm.dk/media/12980/denmarks-national-energy-and-climate-plan.pdf

Denmark is well on track to achieve set INDC goals as it had already reduced emissions by 28.48 per
cent, back in 2015 compared to 1990 levels (Crippa, M. et al 2019, p 90) and has become one of the
best performers in the EU at GHG reduction (EEA 2019, p 35) over 2017 and 2018. A key factor to
reach these figures has been the switch in energy mix over the last two decades where they
increased the renewable energy share by 19.8 per cent between 2005-2017 (EEA 2019, p 47) even
though they have failed in reaching EU targets in reducing or limiting energy consumption (EEA
2019, p 56). According to the EEA report, Denmark will have no problem meeting EU28 2030 goals
with existing measures and will likely reach NECP objectives.

Energy efficiency is one of the few areas where there is room for improvement and is clearly
addressed in the NECP document. However, beside the subsidy scheme from 2021-2024 targeting
private enterprises and buildings (Danish govt 2019, p 6), further improvements can be
accomplished through stricter efficiency rules for the transport and Industry sectors.
Colombia’s energy policy: National Energy Plan (2020) draft.

Colombia is a developing country located at the north part of South America with a population of
49.7 million inhabitants. With a (GNI) per capita of 12.896 PPP, ranks 79th in the (HDI) published by
UNPE (UNPE 2020, p n.d.).

Just like Denmark, Colombia’s energy mix -including transport sector- relays mostly on fuel fossils
(Figure 3.)

Colombia's Energy Mix

Wind, solar, etc.
Coal
0% 10%

Natural gas
Oil 21%
45%

Hydro
11%
Biofuels and waste
13%

Coal Natural gas Hydro Biofuels and waste Oil Wind, solar, etc.

Figure 3: Colombia’s energy mix as of 2000. Adapted from IEA (International Energy Agency) (2000).
Countries and Regions (website). Paris, France: International Energy Agency. Retrieved from
https://www.iea.org/countries

Submitted in 2018, Colombia’s INDC states a 20% reduction compared to projected 2030 emissions
under the Business as Usual (BAU) scenario. That means 266 MtCO₂e to be emitted by 2030
including LUCLUF and no reduction, in absolute terms, relative to 2010 levels which are the
established baseline for the submission. Latest official energy plan dates from 2016 and lays out
the electrical expansion plan from 2016 to 2030 and does only cover electrical infrastructure. This
document projects an increase of 1690 MW on solar and eolic installed capacity, which represents
an increase of 10% in comparison with 2016 total installed capacity (UPME 2016, p 121). Energy
security is the focus of this plan and it does not consider INDC and/or IPCC pathways as it was drafted
right before Colombia got officially liable for Paris Agreements. A draft version of the coming
national energy plan was issued and this time it does include transport and other major user energy
sectors as well as two different scenarios based on projected emissions pathways (UPME 2019, p
18). According to this draft, the first one, named “266 scenario” after Colombia’s INDC submission,
depicts the required measures to meet 266 MtCO₂e by 2030. It also includes a “New bets scenario”
which goes further and estimates a 30% reduction (UPME 2019, p 20), compared to a 20% declared
at INDC. Under both scenarios, renewable energy is the highest growing power source over the 2020
– 2050 period, as part of the energy diversification strategy defined in the document.

Figure 4: Colombia’s Generation and Transmission expansion Plan (2019). Adapted from UPME, Mining and
Energy Ministry. 2019. Generation and transmission expansion plan 2020-2050 (Draft). Bogotá, Colombia.
Retrieved from https://www1.upme.gov.co/DemandaEnergetica/PEN_documento_para_consulta.pdf

The draft National Expansion Plan (NEP) addresses the emissions caused by the transport sector,
which account for 43% of total energy demand in 2018 (UPME 2019, p 10), with an strategy for
official vehicle fleet upgrade in which 100% of the total fleet has to be electric by 2035 (UPME 2019,
p 35).

GHG reduction does not seem to be a priority for Colombian government as proven by an
unambitious INDC goal, and the fact that the latest national GHG inventory assessment was
performed back in 2010. Also, renewable energy participation within national energy mix was under
1% in the first semester of 2018 (UPME 2018, p 80) and the NEP does not state a fixed goal on such
installed power in both scenarios, so there is big room for improvement on that regard.

Comparison and conclusion

While Denmark was an early adopter of the climate change cause joining the UNFCC back in 1992
(UNFCC 1992, p 6), Colombia just embarked into this endeavor with the Paris agreement in 2015.
Moreover, Denmark has set more challenging goals from the very beginning, 40% under the EU
NDC and 70% under NECP and has become a role model in climate change mitigation.

Data
Source

Population (millions) 5,8 49,7 a.

Gross National Income (GNI) per capita in
PPP $ 61.350 $ 6.668 a.
Yearly emissions of GHG in MtCO₂e (NDC
Baseline) 75,5 224,0 b.
Yearly percapita emissions of GHG in
tCO₂e (2016) 13,01 4,51 Calculated
Energy related emissions of GHG in
MtCO₂e (NDC Baseline) 53,68 71,21 b.
Energy related emissions % of total of
GHG 71% 32% Calculated

Energy generation mix 2015 / 2020 c.

Renewable energy % of total energy mix
including hydro power 33% 24% Calculated
40% with respect to 1990 levels 20% with respect to BAU by
NDC by 2030* 2030 d.
70% with respect to 1990 levels 30% with respect to BAU by
National energy plan improved goal by 2030* 2030 e.
Yearly GHG reduction in MtCO₂e by 2016,
compared to NDC baseline. 19,7 -8 f.

Da ta Source
a. (UNDP 2020, p n.d) (UNDP 2020, p n.d)
b. (UNFCC n.d, p n.d) (COL 2018, p 1)
c. (IEA 2020, p n.d) (IEA 2020, p n.d)
d. (EU 2015, p 1) (COL 2018, p 2)
e. (Da ni s h govt 2019, p 5) (UPME 2019, p 20)
f. (CW 2020, p n.d) (CW 2020, p n.d)

Table 1: Denmark and Colombia National Energy Plan comparison.

In contrast, Colombia has set a non-challenging goal for 2030 at its NDC, meaning, no reduction in
absolute terms will be reached. However, economic, and social factors can not be disregarded as
there is a big difference amongst the two countries. Denmark’s GNI is ten times that of Colombia, is
a well-developed country and outperforms Colombia at every indicator on the HDI. Colombia, in
turn, is still considered as a developing country and has faced drugs and guerrilla violence over the
last five decades giving policy makers another priorities to think about, therefore, is no surprise to
see the results in Table 1.

Regarding the national energy plans, Denmark’s is way more specific to the point it includes impact
assessment of planned policies and measures (Danish govt 2019, p 5) whereas Colombian expansion
plan just lays down a general, seven points strategy, roadmap for the years to come. As a conclusion,
human development is a key factor to achieve GHG reduction goals since developing countries can
not commit to ambitious reduction goals while they face poverty, health, and security problems.
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