Professional Documents
Culture Documents
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You dont need to know whats going to happen next to make money
Anything can happen
Every moment is unique, meaning every edge and otcume is truly a unique
experience .
The greater your confidence, the easier it will be to execute your trades .
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The best traders aren't afraid. They aren't afraid because they have developed
attitudes that
give them the greatest degree of mental flexibility to flow in and out of trades
based on what the market
is telling them about the possibilities from its perspective
s.
The gift is
that, perhaps for the first time in our lives, we're in complete control of
everything we do
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The hard reality of trading is that, if you want to create consistency, you have to
start from the premise
that no matter what the outcome, you are completely responsible
On the other hand, when we enter an unplanned, random trade, it's much easier
to shift the responsibility by blaming the friend or the broker for their bad
ideas.
They have
acquired a mental structure that allows them to trade without fear and, at the same
time, keeps them
from becoming reckless and committing fear-based errors.
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What makes trading so fascinating and, at the same time, difficult to learn is that
you really don't need
lots of skills; you just need a genuine winning attitude.
best traders
have reached a point where they can and do accept complete responsibility for the
outcome of any
particular trade.
The market is certainly not fighting you. Yes, the market wants your money, but it
also provides you with the opportunity to take as much as you can.
that the market owes you nothing
there is no possible way to avoid losing or being wrong.
take responsibility for the outcome, and extract the insight that's been made
available
. If you stop fighting the market, which in effect means you stop fighting
yourself, you'll be amazed at how quickly you will recognize exactly what you need
to learn, and how quickly you will learn it. Taking responsibility is the
cornerstone of a winning attitude. CH APTER
As I have already stressed several times, what separates the best traders from
everyone else is not what they do or when they do it, but rather how they think
about what they do and how they're thinking when they doit
If your goal is to trade like a professional and be a consistent winner, then you
must start from the premise that the solutions are in your mind and not in the
market
The first major step in this learning process is taking complete and absolute
responsibility.
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People who are truly happy don't have to do anything in order to be happy.
You can't rely on the market to make you consistently successful, any more than
you can rely on the outside world to make you consistently happy
many traders, whether they realize it or not, are trying to have it their way by
beating the market; as a result, they get financially and emotionally killed
that the reason we aren't consistently successful is because of the way we think.
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The best traders, on the other hand, are not impacted (either negatively or too
positively), by the outcomes of their last or even their last several trades.
With the perspective of making yourself available, you know that your edge places
the odds of success in your favor, but, at the same time, you completely accept the
fact that you don't know the outcome of any particular trade
Adopting this perspective leaves your mind free of internal resistance that can
prevent you from perceiving whatever opportunity the market is making available
from its perspective (its truth).
Only the best traders cut their losses without reservation or hesitation when the
market tells them the trade isn't working
And only the best traders have an organized, systematic, money-management regimen
for taking profits when the market goes in the direction of their trade
Not predefining your risk, not cutting your losses, or not systematically taking
profits are three of the most common�and usually the most costly�trading errors you
can make
Remember that there are only two forces that cause prices to move: traders who
believe the markets are going up, and traders who believe the markets are going
down
The typical trader doesn't predefine his risk, cut his losses, or systematically
take profits because the typical trader doesn't believe it's necessary.
Believing, assuming, or thinking that "he knows" will be the cause of virtually
eveiy trading error he has the potential to make (with the exception of those
errors that are the result of not believing that he deserves the money).
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The best traders use the same thinking strategy as the casino and professional
gambler.
What factors will determine whether the market unfolds in the direction of his edge
or against it? The answer is: the behavior of other traders
Third, casino owners don't try to predict or know in advance the outcome of each
individual event
Casino operators have learned that all they have to do is keep the odds in their
favor and have a large enough sample size of events so that their edges have ample
opportunity to work.
When you've trained your mind to think in probabilities, it means you have fully
accepted all the possibilities
Traders
who have learned to think in probabilities are confident of their overall success,
because they commit themselves to taking every trade that conforms to their
definition of an edge.
On the other hand, why do you think unsuccessful traders are obsessed with market
analysis.
Although few would admit it, the truth is that the typical trader wants to be right
on every single trade.
Typical traders go through the exercise of convincing themselves that they're right
before they get into a trade, because the alternative (being wrong) is simply
unacceptable
trading doesn't have anything to do with being right or wrong on any individual
trade
1. Anything can happen. 2. You don't need to know what is going to happen next in
order to make money. 3. There is a random distribution between wins and losses for
any given set of variables that define an edge. 4. An edge is nothing more than an
indication of a higher probability of one thing happening over another. 5. Eveiy
moment in the market is unique.
As a trader, when you're expecting a random outcome, you will always be at least a
little surprised at whatever the market does
Regardless of how good I think my edge is, I expect nothing more than for the
market to move or to express itself in some way
In other words, we really can't know exactly what to expect from the market, until
we can read the minds of all the traders who have the potential to act as a force
on price movement.
Putting on a winning trade or even a series of winning trades requires absolutely
no skill. On the other hand, creating consistent results and being able to keep
what we've created does require skill.
When you have accepted the risk, you will be at peace with any outcome
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CHAPTER 9
CHAPTER 11
We use market analysis to identify the patterns, define the risk, and determine
when to take profits
It's that simple, but it's certainly not easy. In fact, trading is probably the
hardest thing you'll ever attempt to be successful at. That's not because it
requires intellect; quite the contrary! But because the more you think you know,
the less successful you'll be.
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If you asked me to distill trading down to its simplest form, I would say that it
is a pattern recognition numbers game
We use market analysis to identify the patterns, define the risk, and determine
when to take profits. The trade either works or it doesn't. In any case, we go on
to die next trade. It's that simple, but it's certainly not easy. In fact, trading
is probably the hardest thing you'll ever attempt to be successful at. That's not
because it requires intellect; quite the contrary! But because the more you think
you know, the less successful you'll be.
The first step in the process of creating consistency is to start noticing what
you're thinking, saying, and doing
To even start this process, you have to want consistency so much that you would be
willing to give up all the other reasons, motivations, or agendas you have for
trading that aren't consistent with the process of integrating the beliefs that
create consistency. A clear, intense desire is an absolute prerequisite if you're
going to make this process work for you.
The object of this exercise is to convince yourself that trading is just a simple
game of probabilities
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Pick a market.
Choose a set of market variables that define an edge
Trade Entry
Stop-Loss Exit
Time Frame.
Taking Profits
Trading in Sample Sizes
Testing.
Accepting the Risk.
Doing the Exercise
The rules are simple: Trade your system exactly as you have designed it. This
means you have to commit yourself to trading at least the next 20 occurrences of
your edge�not just the next trade or the next couple of trades, but all 20, no
matter what.
Why do casinos make consistent money on an event that has a random outcome? Because
they know that over a series of events, the odds are in their favor.
trading is just a probability game
Write down the five fundamental truths and the seven principles of consistency,
and keep them in front of you at all times when you are trading
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2. You don�t need to know what is going to happen next to make money.
3. There is a random distribution between wins and losses for any given set of
variables that define an edge.