Decision Analysis

FREEMARK ABBEY
WINERY
Business 5C - Kelompok 2

Francist Julian A Tampi 13111910062

Kevin Lee 13111910143
Lulu Cantika Hendrika 13111910089
Shafira Putri 13111910126
Timotius J Herlambang 13111910339
Data from Case

1. ALTERNATIVES 3. BOTTLES SOLD

5. PRICES PER BOTTLE

1000 Harvest Immediately $2.85

Harvest Case
No Harvest Bottles per Case 12 Mold doesn't form $2.00
Total Bottles sold 12000 Grapes $1.00

2. STATE OF NATURE
4. PRIOR PROBABILITIES
No Storm
25% Sugar $3.00
Storm 50% Good Wine 40%
20% Sugar $2.50
No Storm 50% Light Wine 40%
<19% Sugar $2.00

Low Acid Wine 20%

Decision Analysis Business 5C - Kelompok 2 3

TREE PLAN
BREAKDOWN
TREE PLANS (1)

Decision Analysis Business 5C - Kelompok 2 5

BREAKDOWN
TREE PLANS
(2)

Decision Analysis Business 5C - Kelompok 2 5

BREAKDOWN
TREE PLANS
(3)

Decision Analysis Business 5C - Kelompok 2 5

QUESTIONS
1. Assuming Mr. Jaeger chooses to harvest Riesling
grapes before the storm arrives, how much money
will he make?

Known:
- Harvest before the storm = Harvest Now
- Price per bottle if harvest now = $2.85/bottle
- If they harvest 12.000 bottle, they will get $34,200

Decision Analysis Business 5C - Kelompok 2 5

 2. Assuming Mr. Jaeger chooses to leave the grapes on
the vine, what is the probability that grapes will end

QUESTIONS up with botrytis, and how much money will he make

if that occurs?

Known:
Based on prior probabilities, there is 50% chance of storm
Based on prior probabilities, there is 40% chance mold forms
If mold forms, quantity reduced by 30%
Price per bottle $8
Total Quantity 12,000
Total revenue = (12,000 x $8) *0,7 = $67200

Decision Analysis Business 5C - Kelompok 2 5

QUESTIONS
3. Taking account of all the various possibilities, what
should Mr. Jaeger do?

Known:
a) Harvest Later - Rain / Storm (probability = 0.5) = $41,280 -
No Rain / No Storm (probability = 0.5) = $37,200
Perhitungan: (0.5 x $41,280) + (0.5 x $37,200) = $39,240

b) Harvest Now: $2.85 x 12.000 = $ 34.200

Berdasarkan perhitungan tersebut, Harvest Later memberikan Expected Value

yang paling besar, sehingga lebih baik perusahaan untuk memilih keputusan
Harvest Later

Decision Analysis Business 5C - Kelompok 2 5

QUESTIONS
4. How much should Mr. Jaeger be willing to pay to
learn whether the storm really will hit the Napa
Valley?

Known:
EV with information = $42300
EV without information = $39420
EVPI = $42300 - $39420
= $3060

Decision Analysis Business 5C - Kelompok 2 5

QUESTIONS
5. How much should Mr. Jaeger be willing to pay to
learn whether botrytis would form if the storm were
to hit the Napa Valley

Known:
EV with information = $47400
EV without information = $41280
EVPI = $6120

Decision Analysis Business 5C - Kelompok 2 5

THANKYOU
LAMPIRAN
LAMPIRAN
Logo
MASTER LOGO Our logo is simple, clean, and stylish. The sketched tree and block buildings represent the world of property with a softer
greener sustainable side. This logo can be used with the icon or without. The logo is available for use in charcoal, green,
mint, or white in all instances where the logo is used on its own. Overall style - modern and professional.

J.K. J.K. J.K. J.K.

JAMES KARON JAMES KARON JAMES KARON JAMES KARON

INTERIOR SHOP INTERIOR SHOP INTERIOR SHOP INTERIOR SHOP

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Clear
SPACE & SIZING Clear space is the area surrounding our logo that must be kept free of any text or graphic elements. By leaving space
around the logo, we make sure it stands out in all of our communications. The minimum clear space is 50% of the height
of the entire logo. Our logo must be sized large enough to be easily read on every application.

X FO %05
J.K.
J.K.
MC 1

JAMES KARON 50% OF X 50% OF X

INTERIOR SHOP JAMES KARON

INTERIOR SHOP

THE MINIMUM SIZE

X FO %05
It is sometimes necessary to increase and decrease the logo depending on
the print area. Always keep in proportion. Always ensure the text is legible.
Logo
MISUSE Few rules are necessary for maintaining the integrity of the brand. Any changes to our logo can diminish our values and the overall look of our
brand. The examples shown here are some specific “do not” for our logo. Please do not compromise the overall look of the logo by rotating,
skewing, or distorting in any way - that includes adding unnecessary and unattractive text, decorative elements, shadows, and outlines.

J.K. J.K. J.K. J.K. J.K.

INTERIOR SHOP

J.K.
JAMES KARON JAMES KARON JAMES KARON JAMESKARON JAMES KARON
INTERIOR SHOP JAMES KARON INTERIOR SHOP INTERIOR SHOP INTERIOR SHOP INTERIOR SHOP

Do not alter the logo’s Do not lock up text to Do not add elements or Do not place the logo in Do not alter the logo’s Do not change the
colors in any way. the logo. shadows. a holding shape. shape in any way. relationship of components.

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Palette
BRAND COLOURS The primary colour palette is constant throughout all communications. A colour hierarchy has been implemented, ranging
from Mint Frost being the most important to Light Grey being the least used. Where possible Pantone colours should be
used. For extra impact, special print techniques such as debossing can also be applied.

CYAN-BLUE CHARCOAL GREEN-CYAN BRIGHT GRAY COOL GRAY SUPER WHITE

Colour P Colour P Colour P Colour P Colour P Colour P

431 C 4294 C 5517 C 2331 C COOL GRAY 1 663 C
Colour C Colour C Colour C Colour C Colour C Colour C
24, 3, 0, 56 59, 56, 43, 36 11, 0, 2, 23 0, 6, 6, 31 0, 0, 0, 15 0, 0, 0, 4
Colour R Colour R Colour R Colour R Colour R Colour R
85, 109, 112 84, 84, 84 175, 196, 192 176, 165, 165 217, 217, 217 244, 244, 244
Colour H Colour H Colour H Colour H Colour H Colour H
#556D70 #545454 #AFC4C0 #B0A5A5 #D9D9D9 #F4F4F4

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 Palette
HERO COLOUR Green Cyan is minimal. It’s a colour that works best at 100%. If there is an occasion when you need to create contrast
without adding extra colours, you can use this colour in incremental tints. Avoid using any other tints. Colour is a key
element of this design, therefore it is important that colours P are used to print the designs rather than colour C.

cyan green Colour P

5517 C
Colour C
11, 0, 2, 23
Colour R
175, 196, 192
Colour H
#AFC4C0

10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90%

 Palette
SECOND COLOUR Cool Grey is gentle. It’s a colour that works best at 100%. If there is an occasion when you need to create contrast
without adding extra colours, you can use this colour in incremental tints. Avoid using any other tints. Colour is a key
element of this design, therefore it is important that colours P are used to print the designs rather than colour C.

gray
cool Colour P
COOL GRAY 1 C
Colour C
0, 0, 0, 15
Colour R
217, 217, 217
Colour H
#D9D9D9

10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90%

TYPOGRAPHY
Fiona is our brand typeface, it should be used in all instances where
typography is required. It is a simple, clean, and legible typeface
that compliments our logo. Typography shouldn’t be overlooked as
a key element within our toolkit. It is important to adhere to the
leading, tracking, and text arrangement specified in this document
to achieve brand consistency throughout.
Typography
PRIMARY FONT

Aa
Typography is a powerful brand tool when used consistently. This set of fonts best represents the minimal and elegant feel
of the brand and should be used across all print and web applications Fiona is our corporate typeface, it should be used in
all body text where typography is required. It is a simple, clean, and legible typeface that compliments our logo.

FIONA
ABCDEFGHIJKL
MNOPRSTUVWXYZ
abcdefghijkl
mnoprstuvwxyz
1234567890!@#%&()+
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Typography
SECONDARY FONT Typography is a powerful brand tool when used consistently. This set of fonts best represents the minimal and elegant feel
of the brand and should be used across all print and web applications Articulat is our corporate typeface, it should be used
in all body text where typography is required. It is a simple, clean, and legible typeface that compliments our logo.

ARTICULAT

Bold is our headings weight.

Regular is used for captions and
some bodies of text.
Regular Italics is used for quotes and interviews. Aa
Typography
MAIN COLLECTION FIONA
To be used for
ABCDEFGHIJKLMNOPRSTUVWXYZ
abcdefghijklmnoprstuvwxyz
headings and
titles. 1234567890!@#%&()+
ARTICULAT ABCDEFGHIJKLMNOPRSTUVWXYZ
To be used for
main copy and
abcdefghijklmnoprstuvwxyz
body of text.
1234567890!@#%&()+

Brittany ABCDEFGHIJKLMNOPRSTUVWXYZ

To be used mainly abcdefghijklmnoprstuvwxyz

for captions and
secondary titles 1234567890!@#%&()+

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IMAGERY
Our photography and filming style captures real moments with
real impact. It conveys a unique perspective on the dynamic
nature of our people, communities, operations and the changing
world around us.
Imagery
PHOTOGRAPHY This photographic style is for banners, advertisements, social media, and reports. It captures who we are and what we
do as a brand. Imagery should contain clean and professional backgrounds which allow for the application of our logo
and headlines over the image.

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 J.K.
JAMES KARON
INTERIOR SHOP

123 Anywhere St., Any City, ST 12345

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