Professional Documents
Culture Documents
Beat The Dealer
Beat The Dealer
Beat The Dealer
rx
.}
6V
!295"" This book fs dedicated to
, my wife VJ.VlAN
rs- and mY
·-·,"Nand JEPPJU!.Y.
!1[,(:;
\
tl
·Copyright C 1962, 1966 by Edward 0. Thorp
AD righfi reserved under International and Copy-
\J'
right Conventions. Published in the United States by Randcim
Inc., New York. Distributed Canada by Random
- House of Canada Limited, Toronto. Originally pulllished by
Random House, Inc., in 1966. The quotation from Paul ONeil's
ankle in Ufo Magazine appears courtesy Lifo .Magazine @ 1964 6}.
Time Inc.
!'.
· Acknowledgments
r
[f ·viii
:
The resqlts of the first edition have been al)41.
improved by the extensive researches of Iulian Braun Of
the IBM corporation. He has made most of the calculations
. for tho point-count method and has made numerous de-
tailed an4 \'aluable suggestions. I am grateful to him for
I· .
allowing his work to be incorporated into the second edi·
tion.
il
I particularly wish to thank William B. Walden for tho ''There Is a tide in the affairs of men, which.
related work he has done with moon Nevada baccarat.
Thanks to Paul O'Neil·for the integrity and journaJis. taken tJt the flood, leads on to fortuM. .....
tic clarity with which he portrayed Beat the Dealer and its
author in Life magazine. Thanks also to Life for its cour- t
!
--8HAKEsPEARB (Julius Caesar)
ageous stand in printing the truth despite hostile Nevada '
mobsters and politicos. .
I wish to thank many leaden for. their helpful sugp
dons, ideas, personal experionces. and testimonials, and for
proving the book again and again in theusinos.
,_ Finally, thanks to the readmofthefilst edition of Beat
f<.,lhe Dealer who, in their tnthusiasm, bought so many copies
\. that they put it on the national best-seller list.
!.
r
Contents
f
'
f Acknowledgments
f 1. Introduction 3
. f 2. The Rules of Blackjack 8
Numben of player11. The pack. The deal. Betting. Na-
merical wilue o/lhe carth.lutrd fUUisojt 'htmd8. Objecl
oj 1M pla]er. Naturllb. The draw. The settlement. Split-
ting pain. DoubUng down. lnsuranu. CIUIOliV tUUI
lrtiCilcu: Shuffling. N.w dM:kl.
3. · TJJ.o Strategy 16
t /
1 _The playu'11 decislonll. The btlllc lliilten for thwlng
or •tanding•. The btlllc mateo for doubling down. The
baric strateKJ for spUttlng pain. WMI to when
ruing the balk maten. Comparison with 1untu pere
untage agahut other blackjacl /ltrateglu tmtlln other·
So• common blllCkjtd erron. Finl
ment: drizwlng llta1Uilng holdlng hard l6IIB'fblll
4111 Jfce. Secoml upet'lmal: tlollbllnl dowa oa hard 10
tzgaln/11 1111 Ac.. Thlr4 6J1Uitb18 a pfllr of
8/xu agolnllla Flve. Mlmldlng 1M dll4ler. 2'he player
X._
1PIIo ....,. bllllll. man who. trimmed hill barber.
-
4. A Winning Strategy
Failure of the popular gambiing systenu. Thelmpoi'tllnce
of th4 of trial4 in blackjack. The use of
favl!rtlble 6itUiltions, A lint winning strategy: counting·
Pwu. Counting dee ctJrds. An Improvement in the Flvu
11'16tltod. Preqwncy of favimzble -situations. Variations
In bet Ca,ital required. utent of risk, rate of profit.
game. an.,.,.,
kt on 11 6lngk hllnd. Tire twenty-/We-dollar inlnlmum
thoiUand dollm-s In two houn.
Introduction
2 The Pack
One ordl'Nll'j 52-card pack .Is commonly 11#4. Rcnf.
ever more and more casinos arc going· over to two aud
even four pacb shuftled together, in an effort to maka
card counting more difficult. • It turns out that an ia-
crease in tho ·number of packs euts the player's advaatage
s1igbtly. (In Puerto Rico two decks are genetaUy used, aad
The Rules· of Blackjack in London four decks dealt from a shoe are coiDIIlOD.)
The Deal
Before play begins, the cards are shuffled by 1M
dealer an4 cut by a player. Next, a CDT'd is
(placell face up on the bottom of the deck). The. bume4 ·
t:ard may or may not be shown. The dealer then tleal8 two
I._,
eards to himself an4 to each of the players. Playen Bc .
both cards face down. The dealer receives one t:ard ··
,_first step in learning the game of blackjack is to master
.tba rute&-with emphasis on the .word "master." Even
up 11114 one CDT'd face down. The two cards of the pf4yir ·
an4 the "down.. card of the dealer are called ...hole cards.·
Some casinos deal the player's hole cards face up. .
·.}Dowing the exact meaning of the rules ia not This is the practice in Puerto RiCo. This is very convenient
··· . ThO reader Diust be able to uncterstand the effect of each
for players count cai'ds. On the other hand. l6e1ng ·
t1Jle and of each possible variation. Both experienced plaJ-
_jrs and beginners should study this chapter. · the in no way helps the cfeaJer if, 8$ is usuany >
. •· casino bas a set of blackjack rules which agree the case m casmos, he must act according to fixed rutes.
Later we shall see that about half the time the abSeDe8 of
: with those of other casinos on the DUlin points which
the one burned card is _enough to give the playu a· sligllt· ·
.. in details. Later in.tbis bookwcman.analxze
· the effects of these variations; for simplicity; wo edge- ovor the house. (This is not true when two or JDOJO-.
decka ate. used.) .
consider a typical set of rules. A set that is c:Ommon. yet
by no means universal. is listed below. Betting ,
· The players place aU bets except (discussed
.. Number of Players subsequently) before any cards are dealt. The house- estflb-
A blackjack game has a dealer an4 from one to seven li.shes a minimum. bet and· a maximum bet. The minimum
players. We will see later that. generally speaking, the fewer • In ·Nevada the· multipack dealing devices, whfdl .more aac1
the of ptayers at a table, the better it i8 for &be
.r c: :0
moro common. bavo
ltOq
to bl taowa JaformaB u
b¥ ilarokJ Drab. ·rr!t Who ..... .;;:;
•••
.! - -_--..-
10 BBAT. TK'E DBA.l.lnt The Rules of BlackFfc Jl ,
bet is usually between 25¢ and $5 and·the maximum bet, constitute what we shall call a "naturaf' or -&lackfdck.•
between $zoo and $soo. II a player has. a natunil and the dealer. does not, tiN
Our winning strategies involve varying the size of the player: receives .1.5 times hU original bet from. the
player's bet- The player places larger bets in favorable If a player does not have a natural and the deOler ·doG, ·
ations and smaller ones in unfavorable situations. the player loses his original bet•. lf both player and dealer
The size of the minim\llll bet is of greatest interest to have naturals, no money changes hands. · ,
the player with a smaU amount of capital. The size of the In 1964 automatic blackjack machines were intro-
maximum bet is of interest to the player with a Jarge duced into northern Nevada whi<:h paid 2 to 1 far
aa
amount of capital because it limits the rate at which he untied player naturaL We analyze these machines io Chap- ·
.
can wid. (In Puerto Rico, a '$x minimum and a $50 maxi- .
=
St:llll'tW• eom"'* o.u- , ollltlblblg (S8] tt Js claimed oo I
f8&W ''ami 317 tblt tho llook'l audlor wu thdnt penoo to ca1ca1ate
•
, ·. Af!R loOking at h& hole cards a player may elect to
:::S::'.:.t',::Z.
'" 681) tile ..,.... 111te (I&.
=::a
• balk.. fa¥orable ,._.... a& lll"ckJeat. Oa rJ: 317 It II aJso - ..
:l., ':e. 1ime ·
his bet and drtnf one, and only one, more Car4.
strategy is known as
or· ttae total 811101111l'1:) a& ,. , lfOfll'lu down turns up his hole cards and r«ei'HS hl8
who
down." ..4 IJ.laytll'
tbat It II DOt feasible to alure . , thfrd face down. A who splitl any ,alr.ei'cept .
dle apl.a lilullwJdae1 P.Jen because their ltratigles . .. tf aail cfOea • . . .
differ . • Allo - pap 536. campositlaa Js Ulllllle4 1or r -- Of lOsS? . . .DOt split p,afrs or- double doWn, 1111 ·awrap
lllo '1'1.-.. - J!P ,,. • ilturtblr assumecl that the playw i "" ;> .. . . . • . . >: .
·'folleft.
. tlaO ·ratea {te... '""*D_.• u. tb8 tbllowiDg itJoW> !· ; the
IrcDerm_.set .. ·.· WaeJ. _
............. 1FO mGfon tbat,Bal.dwlu. CMtey.,_·
• .w; ..... That the IIOOk--la reality to . 0 1 ' - ._ tollUioD. to thia
J . _5.__ . . _..,_1!le,=-··.
a a m o ._ _fBI!..
lho s01U- !
.... Joe.
.
liaala OD d·
If
0C l'(
-
er..,....
folfowa the same ltiate&Y • the
-
dfa'WI 00 aU tota1a of
. '
,., •. 1, · " · · -
··-
P. 47); . .
·
r--
I
0/ Blac1cfack.
customs and
! of 11 only. Some Nevada particularly iJl the? Reno practices will have Httlo bearing on the basic strategy of
and Lake Tahoe areas, allow doubling down only on totals Chapter 3 but will. be of interest in connection with tho
! of 10 and n. 1be same was 1rUc of tho first automatic winning strategies to be discussed subsequently. ·.
r· blackjack macbtnes. Tho temporary Las Vegas Shuffling. It is a custom that the dealer can sbnftle at
changes. now off. again. also teStrictcd doubling to any time between bands. Also the ·\'lealer sbuflles In· the
· · totals of bard rr. This was the only l'!lles change midst of tho play of a band if the" deck is exhausted. ·A
· ·tho restriction on splitdng Aces mentioned al)ove. R.estrlC- dealer whO sbufiies in the mltlsl of tho play of a hand
lions on doubling down tend to increase tho house ad- when unused cards remain is probably a The playel'
untage. may request a sbuftle between bands.- Some dealers compf7
and some rcfuso.
llf8U1'41U¥ We shall refer to the practice of unnecess8rily fro.
- If the dealel's up card 18 an Ace, an tldtl/llotull wager quent sbufDing by 1be dealer as "sbufile up." . .
18 allowed before the draw. After his hole cards, ShiliL. A sbill is a-house employee who bet&moDe)'·
, pJtqp may put up an tuldltlOnal side bet equal Ill most .l ·.and pretends to be a pJaJer in order to attract cust'omell
10 hall his original bet. After the player has decided ' or to stimulate play. Shills may or may oot be used in a
whdlter t11' not 10 do this, the tleoler checb hi.$. bole card.
·lf.lhe. has a natural, the Iitle bet wins tWice its
pen casino at a given . .
Shills generally follow "shill rules"; I.e., they uever
·11111tJU111. lfi/Je dealer does not _ltllve a l'llliUTtll, the side bet doublo down, _split pairs, or insure, and they stand on
u 'lost tilld the plt,zy continues. The original bel is settled in . totals of 12 or more. They often foUow Ulo dealer'• rules ·
the ll$l!lll way, regardless of the slde bet. for drawing or standing on soft totals. If the sbD1 does nat
SupPose. for instance. that the player makes the side follow a fixed strat&!gy ho may be helping the dealer and/or ·
· ·bet. aDd that tho dealer hal a natural and the player. does Jiouse to cheat the players (sec our 1atec discussim of
· DOt. The player then loses his original bet but wins -anchor men"). · ··
same amount back on the side bet, for no net loss or gam.
This is why tho side bet is referred to as -msutance." Many
New Tho player by custoiD. but uot ueces:.
sariiy by law, is supposed to be able to reque$t a new deck
of. the casinos. Jn northern Neyada do not allow inaurance. whenever he wishes. Generally new decks are
u0r do thO automatic blaOtjack macldnes. face down. Among other tbfngl. this gives the. ·dealer a
chance to check the backs of tho car(1s for
CU81om8 mid Praf:dea. that in. tum could be used by the player to identify cants
. . There are customs and practices ccmnected with tl1e when they are faee down. -Then tho cards aro face
pne pt ·bJackjack which are not to be thought of as. part
1' 'Ibis gives the player a Chance to see that no
of the 'YarJ_ enaticaDy from_ cuino to .casino, llavo- been removed fcom or added to the cfeck(s).
the same caaU1o oa different shifts. aad smno-
J
- --...
-;;?M;;;. .. ..,..Jy---.-.-------17-l
-;:BU;-:::-c-::StrtM:c
-=-.
=
·: .. ' ;&1 "'"":c
'.3 - ·r· silver dollars. 1 did not expect to w1n but wantect to . .
how long my stack would Jut. as wen as to try out ibfs
I strategy "under fire." - ,
I In a few moments tho slowness of my play and the
1 little card in my palm had attracted amused bystander& Tho .
I dealer could not conceal his scom for one more •ayaraa•
player. These sentiments wero soon iaced with. pity whea
_The Basic Strategy these people saw· tho way I played. Who 'Plit a pair of
lowly FJghts-and doubled tho amount of mouey being
. the dealet's up card was the powerful Ace?
Had anyone ever ·seen a player who doubled dowD- on
against a Five or who chose to stand on a piteous sa
(hard) against a Four?
To add to this poor beginner's misery, tho dealer was
having a very strong run of 1uct. Every player at the table
was losing heavily. Surely my tea would 100a ho
During one Christmas vacation, my wife and I decided to swept away. Or would the.Y7 Somehow these
relax from mj' teaching duties at tho University of California kept .tumiD! out right. As !layers lost heaps
at Loi Angeles by spending a few days in Las Vegas. We my liUio stack held. It even iDchocl up ODCO. After twelltJ
had been there before, but we were not gambJtrs. We 1· miiJiltes most of it was sdD thae. Bcgimleta tact. .
t,!le shows. the luxurious low-cost _mc8ls.. and· iD sea- .. a strange thing happened. I wu dealt (A.2"J. I
IOD. the swimming poOls. drew a Two, and then a Three. I (A,2,2,3}, a so{t
-· . Before we took the trip, Professor · Sorgenfrey of 18. The dealer had a N'mo up. but ho might haw W It-
U.c.L.A. told me of a recent artide in one of the mathe- Only a foc>l would dJaw again and • tho Clesiiucdon 4
matics journals [2). The article descn"bed a strategy for play- I consulted my card and drew. With 110
Ing _blackjack that allegedly limited the house :ro the tiny Jitt1.e satisfactiOn and several the amu8od oD-
owi'alf edge of o.62 per cent. • Because thiS figure is so saw me .. a Six. Hard 14.J "Serves. mo
__ ._rig&_
an .A£o which gave me liard 15. Tough luck;. f4tew
. • I
._ly even, and So much better for the player than in any
Other casino game,· I wrote tho- strategy on a little card and six! I DOW held (A,2,2,S.6..4,6) ai.
cainecfit on our trip. ,. . . _ ·. This JS an event so rare that it only u.ppeas OJXO De.r
thousand hands. . . · - · "'-
When I _arrived at the blackjack tables, I Purt?hasCd
'. · After a moment of ahock; some of the. bystanders saicJ
· , .. • Mr. Wilbert B. Caatey lias told us that an error in aritlunetfc. I _bad a ....,;...
$25 • • The dealer- ·· ..
4llaoverecl after [2) aa4 [3) were allows that the figure gfvea - . couung . . P1V -No".......
for 0. ·boase adYIIIItage should baWl belen 0.32 per Cent. rather thall was Ulll)' .r- at a few places fa .Reno. I wa$
.o.6a 'l'ho cprrcct· lpro for their llrl&te&Y ia· a p1tqtr advaDtap But_ I thought lt_mlght
. .
. . •16•
.
the DnpreSSion4bat I had saerific:ed my soft 18
- -- fti: Baslc'Siiizi6gy It
r . foresaw the seven-card 2I. "And who knows, they f .· /
1
even pay me." Of oourse they did not. But the amusement } De DeclsloM
· and._ attitude of some _bystanders change4 to - . As we saw in the last chapter, the game begins Wid&-
to attentiveness. and even to gopse pimples. · certain prelfmlnades. When the players arc seated, tho
· After another fifteen minutes-and after the oblitera- deck is shufDed by the dealet and cut by a player, and the
i-. don by the dealer of all my fellow players-1 was .,ehind a cfealer burns a card. After the playm ·have plaeed their
total of eight and one-half silver doUars and decided to stop. , bets on the table in front of them. the dealer gha two
But the atmosphere of ignorance and superstition that per• • cards to each player and to himself. As mentioned' pro.
· vaded my little securely planted in my mind the - 1 · viously, one of the dealer's cards is up and the other dOw&
if·
•181$ _that even players did not know the funda·
of this game;. 'Ibetl: might be a way to beat it. •
When I returned home, I began an study of
· - At this point the player must make a number of decf...-
sions. The principal ones are whether to split a pair, if he,
has one; whether to double down or DOt; and whether to
- _• · I was convinced at once that a winning system stand or draw. In general. whlit the player should do ·
,
eQUid be devised with the help of a high-speed electronic pends on ,the cards he holds, Oli die dealer's up C8ld, au4
calculator. As the first step in_finding such a system, I used , on any other cards the player may have teen. However,
an mM 704 computer to. improve the strategy discussed in . f· in .this chapter the player completely ·Ignores an- cardl
! the above episode. It is thiS revised version-which I call , Jae Jlas aeea except his own hole cards aud the deaiefs up
the "basic strategy':-that you will learn ·in this .chapter. It f 6l,td. no-
basic strafe&Y, pen ill this chapter. is tho best
•· •1he
!
foundation for the winning strategies otla• chapters. + . pt)#lble way to play witla this iDfonnation. aso. Later, we
.. show that iD. a typical casiRo who , shall.l!nprove our atrategiea by using the 1cDoWJedp gaiDec1
- 1ises-•-1he comet basic strategy has an edge of 0.12 per_cent t • bodl frOm the playet's seeiDg which can;fa were eonsnmecl
- over the housi In some casinos the player actually has a 1 of play 8ll4 8lso- from his - . , OD--
i mwow advantage of -aS much as o.6 per cent. In casinos _ .. play. exposed cards other dum Jds
of
own hole cards
eunea
. t-_
.• • Jteeal(•that•hel! a pair of Acts arc apUt, 7011 arc obliged to stand after 1Jei!la
• deolt cme card on each Ace. agaiDst tbat up Card.
clde whether'- to stand on your current total or draw one
• /
or additional cards in an effort to improve your hand.
· Notice that Table 3.1
. llard totals of I I or less.
You
drawing on aU
is reasonable because a player
dOe$- this cannot bust and must increaact Jli$· totaL
Dealer shows
I Jll· --------. .
a· 4
....,.._
s •· 7 ·a
- t 11 4 5 6 7 i ·g 10 .. A
17
I- 16
15
14
[3'
.. -·.-· ..•
mnnbetS
•Holding liard 16. 1lraw H you llold two. cards, -'1 (lOA or (9.7). and
ltand if you hold three of mor. cards, fol' -mple. (6.4.4.2). ·
tStaad haklin& (7,1) a_gainsUO. ·
tr
l 2::1
can becountc:ct
caN wiU haYe a DUJ:Derica1 value-of 10 or less. .· · 1. :. ;r ,... draw • s.6.7J1.9• .,.
· tho player with a soft tOtal of 16 0r lesi c8miot p do JJ4t bust. You still have another if you wislt..
bust by drawing one moro card. he cannot make his total . . with which to try for a good total. . · ·
pOorer. Tbis is .because aD fbiaJ. or "standing.• totals of I 6 ' . It sometimes. takes a little· wiD power to follow
or less are equivalent. If you stand ·and tho dealet busts. 'Instructions. More than once I have been confronted with
· you win same no matter what yOUr total is. heart-stoppers like this. I was playing a "big:.money" gan:ao
Whether 1t lS 16 or less than 16 mnes no dift'erence. If in certain Nevada casino. By tho card-counting methodS
you stand on 16 or less and tho dealer does not bust, then of later chaplm, I knew...:.tbat I bad as per cent ecJ&e on
. by. the he must have _ended _up with a total between tho 1mt of play. Therefme, I had placed the maQ.
17 and Thus he automatically beats all totals of 16 and ,_ mum bet of Ssoo. The up card was a 7· I was
. uadcf. 'I'heiefore, draw io soft 16 or less, you dealt (J4,6), a soft 17. Since the in tho
· Jiarm In fact, you may even be able to help your-· deck consisted largely of Tens, I was fairly certaiB- that
self. For example, on holding (A,s}, you improve your tho dealer had 17. Since thecc were only four canfa that
dmnces to tic or win if the card. you draw is any one of tho would help me-the A.2.3.4-8Dd- five tha.t would. hurt ·
group C?n .holding _(A,2,A), you improve your me-the s.6..?,8,g,1 was reluctant to draw and was.inclhled
chances to tie or wm if tho card you draw 1s any one of the to play for .a_ de. Neverthc!lees, I grittect my- teeth
group 3.4,S,6,?. I once, rec:dring an 8. I now held hard IS. I held my
I _ · · . When drawing to a soft there is a small possibility ' and drew again; this time I RCeived an Ace. I now held
J efbls. If you stand and the dealer alsO hu 17, .:you will tie ._.d 16. Resignedly, I drew again. lllllaZC)o
Jdnt and -thus avoid losing your bet. However, lr you draw ment-a 3· I now decided to stand with my hard 19. \VbeJl
the deaior exposed; his handJ to my surprise he held •
t _- to soft 17, you may convert your hand into a hard hand
I that totals less than 17. If you then stand on· this, you are happeaed to be the only Ace yet UllaCCOUDted for (oQOlaad.
! worso off than before, for the dealer may up with exact- already appeared on an earlier round of -·
ly 17 and you lose, whereas would tied. Ifyou to tho rules-Oi the game he wauequired to stand. The basic
draw to thiS hard band, you may bust and .,_ at once. strategy not only produced. the one line of play .that c:oqkf-
I" example. with (A,3.3)=soft 17, suppose a Five is ave the $soo. it doubled the PlO!ley besides. ·
, draWn to make (A,3.3.SJ=bard 12. If the dealer shows a We see from Table 3.2 that there are minimum staJtd-
[ · Rve. Table 3·• recoDunends standing. If tbe dealer shows Jng numbers for 80ft hands similat to those.for. har4 ha1lds. ·
t. an Ace, tho tal:ile recommends drawing. tf a T-eA is drawn, should draw if your sott total is less tbaa the _soft
Mfttach (AJ,3,s,zo)=22 (even counting thO Abe as one) given for tho current up cant of the dealer,
and bust. '• - if your soft total is greater tban or equal to this.
this chance of making your hand poorer by ._ . ,bcr. The reader w)J.o practices with the basic_
drawmg to a soft 17, calculations show that this risk is more .. 'SOOI)lcnow the uumbeis well enougll --
by the possibility of improving your han(l1'Jul$. tq __ .. with TAbles 3.1 3-2. . . -_. -·
.with (A,6), you may draw an A,2,J, or 4, all ill}- . .: llQW. that you go iQ.to a tq practice
Ulijjlf_(lltlmding uumbers. You never double down, never
BBAT THE DBALB:R < •
'split pairs, and never h1sute. How will you do? Suiprisingly ,Tbe Bqsit: -, .
«iough, tho casino edge win be only about z·percent. Your · is done only on totals of 13 or more.
game is alteadyctose It is better than tbe methods dOwn .on a total of 12 is sometimes better thaa. draWing.
recommertded. until recently by die worlcfa fotemoSt ·card - But-.soft 12 means a pair of Aces. It i&:mnch better to split
experts (see. for example. [8]). the Aces instead of doubling down with t:hem.
Observe that the player always doubles dowa. on bard
The Basic Strategy for Doubling Down . u. With hard 10, the player doubles down except against
· The part of the strategy which is next in importance,
1
!:an Ace or a Ten. Hard 10 is a less favorable tOtal t1ian
u well as next in simplicity, is hard doubling down. It is , hard II, except when an Ace is drawn, becauso tJ» total
probably DlOl'O couvenient to. postpone memorizing the ft the P.layer obtains when doubling down on hard 10. is ()ne
·IOft.doubling-d strategies untU after pair splitting has less than the total that he would }lave obtained by doubling
·· beea learned.· But- for cOmpleteness, we $hall aTso discuss down on hard II. Hard 9 is even less favorable thali hard.
10ft doubling down now. · r xo, and with hard 8 the player rarely doubles down. In fac:t.
AI indicated in Figure 3.1, the decision about whether -1he situations where you with hatd 8 are so
· · or not to double down must be made before that about tate; and the gains are so slight, fh:at you can neglect them
drawing versus standing. This· decision is made by using ·with practically no loss. ·
Table 3·3· The poJSible up cards ot the dealer are
listed across the top of the table, and the player's totals
are listed in the column on the teft. In order to decide
.mether to double down, first see if· your in
tho. column on the left. If it does not ,OU 'Should \ .
. DOt double down; instead, proceed to the next decision. t
whether to draw or stand. If your total does appear. run f
i clown the calumn belqw the dealer's up card until
reach the row in which your total appelll'S on·the left. If r
.
it-
.--· conspicuo111 feature of. the table is that soft doubling '< Oneo you have.raasteted the ltr8tegy fer ltar4 doubt-
•
.«twn is never recomDiended against 7.&.9,10; or A. mg. JOD furthei cat thocaSiao'aecJge tom thaa 1 per cat.
It is hard to explain the doubling-down strategies
without using mathematics. Biit experience in actual play Tbi Boslc Sttrltegy for Splitting Ptllr.f
10011 engraves them on the memory. I always remember After memorizing tho strategy for drawing and stancJ.
to double down on soft 13 against a Five because of a ing and for bud doubling (soft doubliug too, if tho rest il
hand 1-played at the Silver Slipper in Las Vegas. On this easy), you am mady to add pair splitting to your repertoire.
occasioa, my friends and I bad gone to see whether this Tho detalJal_pair-splitting str8tegJ will be deacribed,' fol..
casino would cOntinue to play when we began to win sub- lowed by a simple way to 1eam it. ·
&Wltial aunounts. 1 was varying my bets from $1 to $10. If )'OU have a pair. Figure 3-1 shows that the fttst decl-
' ,{A variation of $1 to $3 would be wiser at present, now sion you have mate. before both doubling dowa and
f': that thOusands of readers of Beat the Dealer have infticted drawhig or stJmding. ia or nOt to spHt it.. You C8A
f .bloody losses on casinos. r Because I had frequently 4ecido this by using Table 34 In that table tho possible
.•. bet_ooly $1, we agreed that I was not to raise ·my bets ·r· up aida of tho dealer am listed in a lOW llCl'OSI tlle- top
. above $1o-to do so wouk1 attract attention. However, and tho possible pain of tho plaJar·am-liated in tho columa
a juicy situation arose (a 6 per cent advantage). 1 could on f:ho left. If you havct a pair. IUD &nm tho column be-
your.,.
!.
not teSist! I shoved out $30. To my satisfaction the dealer's low tho up caret until you gel to tho mw.labelo4
up card turned out to be a Five, tho most favorable card . with If tho square at this locadOa ta b1aDk, do
· . fOr the player. Confidently I tutnccl up my (A,2) hole cards .. JlOt split your pair. Proceed immediately to Table 3·3· If
and doubled my bet. I did not bother to loot :at the down tho . . js shaded, tint split JOUr pair aud thell,go 01110
QU'd that was dealt to me beCause I expected the dealer Table ·3·3- If you have no pair, as is tho c:aao about six
_to..have down and then to draw another card, busting 1
1fmea out of sevea, skip Table 34 altogether aDd go 6
bimself. To my horror tho dealer's hole card was a.Four. zectty to 4'8bte 3·3· .
·· Be drew the CJq*ted Ten for a total of 19. I was resigned · If Table 34 seems imposing. you may replace it by
to • loss when the dealer turned up my hole card to settle set of ruleL They am: .alW&JI split Aea
. the·bct. It was a Seven! i · aDd Bights; never split Foun, Fives. or Tens: split tho Other
·. - There was a strange expression oil the dealer's face. t parr._ whoa· tho dealer shows 2 tluough 7· Tile bea'V)' 1iDea
· · Luck. by itself was one thing. but my huge bet in in Teblo 3-4 DKficate this set of rules. Notice that,_., . .
naade it &eei.Jl- like I could foretell the future (which 1 . Some of tbeseerroa
course. to a limited extent, although iD this ease .--quito large. but becauao. the sttuatious arise iafrequently,-
I-was quite wrong about the detail$). ·What the deater did ... to add only o.13 per c:ent to tho Oftl81l hoUse
not realize•was that he was as lueky to have a Fout you haft Jeamecl to lise. theae· .approxt.
neath u I was to draw a Seven.· Orie of the characteristics ...
of the basic strategy is that it those who use it . Jlrategy.. you . . ready fo.Jeaar
considerably ..luckier" than the average player. In thi$ m.
&taDce. my "luc:It- proved ·
1
31
28 -B-:&A'r THB :DB-ALia
from the book and used while playing., As.
to team by•visualizinfthe ammgc!uu:nt of the ·Oeano more expert you will consult the card lesS
For ·example, the .infonnatioq in forty of- the finally not at alL
squares is contained in the.. rule split Aces and
Eights, never split Fives and Tens... There are "reasons.. · What to Expect When Using the Basic Strategy
tor these rules that may help yau to retain them. • Aces You are now familiar enough with the basic strategy
be. because there is a very good_ chance of get- to try it out in aCtual play. If a casino is not available and
ung a wmntng. hand-even 2I-with each of the new you play at home, be sure that tho set of casino rules we
hands, whereas the original hand (A,A) is only fair for have adopted are in force. This will mean a CODSkterably
· doubling down or for drawing or standing. differentprocedure from that usually employed in a home
_game, but perbaps your friends will go along in the interest
of learning something new about blackj*
A The following data may enCO\U'Ilgo yon to tty tho
basic strategy at the in. spite Of tho fact that whea
you use it you are still, in general.· s,lmply _playing about
even with the house. Table 3.6 descn"bes the possible out-
comes that can be expected if_ IOO hands from
· : thirty mitmtes to one and one ball -ho1U8 of··playfag time,
- . depending on the speed of the· dealer and tho of
• Spiii_Piir players at the are played at $I pet hand, also if
CJDonatsp&r,_ I,oOo hands (generally from five to :fifteen hours of
· If the dealer has a 1.8,g,ro, or A up, Eights should be playing timo, depending on conditions) are played ·llt
split, not so much because a good total will be· obtained · $I per hand. If the per hand is ditiereDt. just
· · ,With each new hand, but rather because I 6 is, in a multiply all dollat values· by the appropriate DUIJlber•. Por
bad total to hold. The reason that I 6 is unfavorable iS this. example,· if you bet Ss per hand, multiply by s; if }011
. When the dealer's up card is 7 or be is·n6t likeiy per hand, multiply by o.so (or divide by 2) •. Tho
. to- bU$1; ·and if be does not bust, he is sure to beat I 6. Thus, .. average gain after one thousand $I bets is $I. Afte.t ·one
z
tho splitting of Eights against through A "breaks up" a hUndred $1 bets, the average gain is IO#.· Thus we regard
· •l:timd. · the basic as essentially even: real advallttge
turns out that the new hands _are not:Vf!rJ unfavor- ' for either side.
a?le (1n fact, they have about an av.e,rage chance Of win- et al. (3] report the results in Table 3·7 with·
JW1g), and even 1hough you are staking more money, y9ur their strategy (it essentially tho samo · as
the· basic
. • These *reasons• are onty a yery crude picture of the actual state · ,- · -Who number of hands· play'ed in each. group is near
. of affairs. &be precise. situation .is given ill U4e We give to 000 if
t h a t .· n-tMad the .. - t - - of .hands
· ..reasons" here t? help you 1ix the rules iif your mind M.flng • . I, SO . • we nu..u.u,.- ·
.to worry .about mvotved mathCilUWcal Rofnts.
Ulistance might c:onsUk [14}.
no. wJIO ..........
.' - .·
-·. . . iii-.-(JOO each time hl Table 3·7• we caa '&180 the
. _......
-· ... - -
-:;.·
&zslc
. .. -.
33 BBA'f· TiiB .. -. '
TABU! 3.6•.
.. .
'
RalllU V.slng tb BaSii:' Straleg1.
.. .-•.· second part of Table 3.6 for· a rough check of JeSUlts
Of'I1able 3·1· Everything is normal- except for the awing
If 100 hands playcd,at $1 per .,
fiof4s6. This awing, jf it is not the result of causes .other
approximate the result. is* than chance, is a. rare event. Table 3.6 tells us that
per cent of 1,00o hiuads are played, the chance of a awing of -$56 or
time that between and
more is less than o.I per· cent. With a smaller number of ..
0.01 -$19.9 'below hands, in this case 770, the chance of such a swing is even
0.1 -149 -$19.9
2.1
13.6
-
-
99
'49
--
-149
4.9
less. In fact, calculations show that if 770 hands are played
at $1 per hand, the probability that tho player will lose
-34.1 0.1 4.9 Ss6 or more turns out to be approximately o.oi per cent;
34.1 S.1 0.1 that·IS, the odds against this are about Io,ooo to I.
13.6 10.1 S.l
2.1 lS.l 10.1
0.1 20.1 15.1 Comparison with House Percentage Agm'nst Other
0.01 abovo 20.1 Blaclcjack Strategies and in Other Game1
If 1,000 hands are played at $1 per band- We remarked earlier that the basic strategy is better
approximate the result is* than other blackjack strategies and that it is also better
l . per tent of than any published strategy for any other gambling game.
I
time .that between and es 3·8 and 3·9 illustrate how much better it is.
0.01 -$62.2 below
TABLB 3.8. Thtt Ba.dt: Stl'(ltt/81 Comporeil wldJ Oihttr
0.1 -46.4 -$62.2 Blackjtlck ·
2.1 -30.6 -46.4
13.6 -14.8 -30,6 BlacJtjack strategy Player's advantage (in per cent)
34.1 r.o .:.. 14.8 . +0.1 is typical; rangoa roughly fJOGl
34:1 16.8 1.0 -1 to +1
- 13.6 32.6 16.8 card -3.2 .
2.1 48.4 32.6 -5.1
u 64.2 -2.00 to -15.00
0.01 above 64.2 -6.0 (estimated)
' .
......... lllllllliiD ln4lcale .....
. Some Common Blackjack En-oil
The basic strategy for blackjack was first published
(with a few insignificant• errors) by Baldwin et al. [21
]·'· Ruulu tJ/ Blzldwln, et lltl. .
fQur years before .this book was begun. Nevertheless black-
Nu,mbll' of hands playecl Gain
jack strategies containing gross errors appear.t
...
930 $38.50 (
770 -.56.00 •We caD them because thoy cost tho player on tho
average a mom 0.04 pee ceut of hil action.
1140 -4.!10
.· fin tliJa aectiOil we are tho basic strategy_ with only
-690
'3S30
-4.00
-426.00
'
atratog1es fJl which completli
do aot COUDt
composition is assumed. tha&
·,
f ...
c :.>. --
..
; < .·-- ;
3S
.TABLB 3.9. Till Btalc Strtrt•gy· Compol'ftl with But Plfl1 ·FintExpqimmt: Drawing Versus Standing HoT.ding
in Other Casino Gamu• . -. _ . · Bard_ z6 Agai11St an
Player•s advantage (besfplay) Table 2a shows us that the player who draWs rather
Game (in .per
than stands on hard 16, when the dealer bas an Ace show-.
+0.13; rallge$ roughly from ing, gains· an average of 14.6 per cent in such situations.
--1 to +i Put another way, to stand rather than diaw on luu'd 16
. crap -1.40 (may drop as low •
-o.6: see [80]) · costs the player an average of 14.6 per cent The fOllow.
JOUfette (Europe) -J;3S ing experiment is designed to verify this. Reuiove a... Ace
.• roulette (United States) -2.70 to -5.26 complete deck and place it face up on the tal)Je.·-pua.
-1.06 (banker); see [70]
-1.24 (player); see [70] represents the dealer's up caret Next, write the number 16
-1.52 b average; ranges fi'Olll on a _card or paper and place it in front yourselt This
-30.0 to 0; see [80) represents your hard total. · · .
Of oourse this does not correspond exactly to the. real
• Card C01IlltCn Wbo -'stently make 8'ftiiMIIOIIeY bets (0 per CCDt edge) - . situation. In a game the cards that the player actually has
frawtaed \II>OIJ 111 llle operaton et Ibis vlllllshlns pme. The variation In advantage
wbldl Is li'fell -
Cll'ds plaJed. .
1111& tile piQW II aware of lbe cue keeper't RCOrd al drawn to make up his total of hard. 16 will alter tl\e. ad- . _
vantage in drawing. Conceivably, if enough small cards . -
In the discussion to follow, we shall formulate experiments used to -c;omprise the tata1. it may even be. wise to stand. For
to demonstrate several of the more obvious of these errors. exmnple, consider the very close decision as to wliether. 10
Some of the experiments will take the reader less than an atand or draw when holdiiJg hard 16 and the dealer's up
Bach _reveals the error in one of the commonly recom· cant is aTen. According to Table 2a, drawing is favored
-, mended
. The
by comparing with it a feature of the basic
_ _
should convince anyone wJJ.o tries
the player's bard 16 totalis composed of (4. 4, 4, 4),- *
o-Yer standing for an·average gain of 2-9 per cent. But·Wbea
!:r i
r;f
'
16 and deal a card to the dealer (his hole card). If he gets ·: "'s,cond Experimmt: Doubling DOwn on Hard 10
a natural, discard the Io-value card and dc:f'not reeei'd the an Ace
. result. We do this because .the question of whether or not . •· · This eiperiment is eonducted in much the same way
·to draw on hard 16 arises only if the dealer has already .·'tii the previous one. Select as hole cards (8,2) for the max•
checked and found he has no natural. If the hole card is 1mum error of 6.1 per cent, in order to shorten the expedo
not a Ten, continue dealing until the dealer ·either busts ment. This figure of 6.1 per cent is obtained from Table 4J,
or achieves a total, soft or hatd, .of 17 or more. If the. where we see that, holding (8,2) versus an Ace, if "
busts, you win. If he does not bust; you lose.. Record ·limply draw untU we reach a SUitable total, in the long l'11lr
the result. Discard the used cards and deal another hand. We win about 8.6 per cent of our bet. However, if 'We
When 100 "hands" are dealt in this fashion the player w111 ·double dOWn only 2.5 per cent of our original bet
win, on an aver11ge, about I7 of the hands and lose the in the long run. The difference is· 6.1 per cent. Play about
.rest. This follows from the assertion Of Table 3, that the · 400 hands in which you double down. Afterward, subti'act
player wJ,.o stands on I 6 when the dealer &bows an Al:e the number of hands lost from the number of bands won.-·
loses.at the rate of .66 per cent. Then double this number to take into 8CCount your doublecl
. · Next, deal 200 hands as Give the dealer one ttet on the double-down hands· This is your total profit iD
card (his .hOle card). If it is a Ten, discard it and deal the 400 hands by doubling down against the Ace. Rem.em·
· anOther card, for the same reasons as before. Now assume as before to disregard all dealer naturals in yaur talll·
you draw one eard to a total of I 6. If you bust, you ·If the·deller has a Ten under, give him another hole car4-
1,.
l. !Qse. Discard the card and record the loss. If yoti do not - · · Next, play 400 hands in' which you follow the correct
!.·· bust you have ahard total between I7 and Stop draw- draWing and standing strategy versus an Ace (Table 3.5);.
j ing to. your own hand and, if necessary, prOceed tosfvo tho ¥ottt wins minus your losses give your profit for the 400
j . dealer further cards until he either busts or gets a total of 1wlds. ·0n the average, in 400 handS you· will
a 17 or more. Record whether you won, tied, or lost, and excess o(-wms over losses of about 17.2 hands with draw-
il continue. ing and Standing. With doubling down, you will have an
,,
1
1
Your percentage of "wins" should be figured as the .aYetage excess of s.o
losses of hands. . _
number of wins plus one half of the ties (to tie hand,·
r. for example, would be the same as winnincr Third Experiment: Splitting 4 Pair of Sixea
li -o A.gaiiut 4 Five
il half and losing half, for no net gain). ln1 this part of the
p· experlinent, the average number of. "wins" per IOO hands . . According to Table 4f. the gain here by splitting
H should be 24·3· Thus, with 200 hands the average separa- - than is 17.2 + 10.2 or 27.4 per cent. if
li tion between the two ways of playing harcl I 6 against an JQU·.$114. you have a net lQss of 10.2 units per 100 bet&
\] As:e will be 2 x (24.3 - 17.0) or 14.6 hands. In each. · lf.yousplit, your 100 hands become 200 and you will win
li part of the experiment, however, there will be chance deVia· ,OOUt 17.2 more of those 200 hands than you loSe. You
tions from the cited average totals. In -fact, I time in so, !lave an average net gain of 27.4 units per 100 original
11 standing on hard 16 against an Ace will produeo better by splitting rather tbm,. Fifty original hal$
!L}. resu1ts, over 200 hands, than drawing. · .of each t)'pe should be decisive.
i,
r!i
---',
l
. one day. When Blattner told the barber of his friend who
wrote a book' on how to beat blackjack consistently, the
.A Winning Strategy
.1
.li barber scoffed. "Why that's easy," said he. "Anyone can
Ji
win by just refusing ·to go bust (standing on· hard 12
t
. "i
'! always). mattner tried in vain oonvince.the barber that
! he was wrong. Eventually the barber touted Blattner into
I
·a little game after closing hours. Blattner brought $x6o.
tI.
At Ss and $xo a hand,' the barber quickly lost an equal
amount. He constantly exclaimed that Blattner was tho
.l
.luckiest man he ever saw. After losing the $r6o, he refused
.' SO quit. He demanded the chance to get hi$. .money back. Ganl'blers soon teamed through experience that g8mee of
Tliey played on at $20 a band. When he was behind
.chance could be run in such a way that a certain ...,... .
$10200, the barber's luck turned. He won back $300 of centage".favored one side -' the expense of the other ·aide.
this'· loss. Then it was all over. He fell behind $x,soo and .'J:'hat if a game was played a BUtlicient aumbet of tiiael
(the "long run"), the winniDgs of the favored lidO wuuJ4
·quit.
The barber still belieVes Blattner is lucky. He delayed pnerally .bo uear a c:e:rtaiD percentago of tho. total
· paying his loss. Fmally he decided to Blattner free . of all bets placed by the opponent. 1110 IDOlfora.
. baircuts. After .a year of these he cried that hard times were cas1no takes the side in its games tbat hat pRtVCa
upon him and went back to chargiilg Blattiler•.(ThC barber .m. practb. to bo tavorabJe. If necessary, the calino otten
"fnsi4ts that he will pay Blattner some day.) Question: Did rulea· of tho game so that the casino advantage fa
Blattner tritn his barber or didn't he? ID1Bcient fO cover .expenses and also yield a desirab1D rate
• There is a bit of mathematical irony Ia thiS story, as we shaD
. profit oil the capital that the owners have invested.
.. IH. Aa .background for the noamathematical reader, . we mentioa
BerlraDd llussell's. famous paradox.
town triDII the hair of an those pet'IOIIIo
that a barber iii a certain
Oniy these pe!IODI. who
do not trim: their own :hair. (We aaume that a person's .hair .. always
.
··,. .
if
aniouu,t of
bets of $3, '2, called "actioa." Fgr
aD.d $i1, I have ·-ru;
of action.• A player whO has a cei1ain amount ·of
trimmed by the same Wbo trims the barber's1lair'llf someone . ·.•eapitat em geueraJly get many times that amount ia·acb
· else triiDI the barber's hair, then it :must be tho barber who trims 1he Josing- capital. to the.lwusO. 'This ecm.-
&rber's hair. Impossible! ·If 1he barber. trims bls own bait, then il
cannot be the barber .who trims the barber'a hair. WJJO· to of gambling. .
the barber's hair? · · ·· . . •.p•
r __.,.,......,__ . . . . . . ,_- ...... .-..-., ....
.0·
/ processes." (Craps and roulette are such What
FaiJzll'e of the Popular Gmnbling Sy$lenu •.·· this means is that each play Of the game- is
There have been many attempts to the by past outcomes and, in turn, has no influence on futwe
casino advantage. A· freqUent approach has been- to vary C)IJtcOJn.es. For example, suppose we shu1Be a deck of _cards
tho amount that is bet from play to play according to and draw one cant. which happens to be the. Four of
various methoda, some of which me simple and some of Spades. We now return this card to the deck and shuftle ·
which are -very complex. By way of illustration, in the tlwroughly. If we draw one c8Id again, the chance_that.tt
Small Martingale, better known as the "doubling-up," sys- will be the Four Of spades is no greater than and no leu
tem, the player makes an initial bet of, say, $1. If he loses, ·thaD the chance of its being any one of 51
be beta $2. Thea he wagers $4. $8, $16, and so on, dou- - Tllis f8ct has made popular the phrase "The cards have no
bting the bet each time until he wins. Then the proeess is ·memory." -
repeated starting with $1 again. The bet placed following
a .string of losses equals the entire amount lost in the string, The ImpOrtance of the Dependence of Trials llf Blackjack
plru one. A winning bet either _is a $1 bet, or has been In contrast to the previous situatioa, in casino
. placed after a -string of losses. Thus each win results in a jack the cards do have a memory! What happens _in OliO·
net profit of $1, counting from just after the last win, and round of -play may infiuenco what happens both later Ja
the player wUming a dollar every few bets. However, that round and msucceeding rounds. Blackjack. theiefoie.
this sjstem has a fiaw. The casino always sets a limit to the maybe exempt from the· mathematical arguments _wldcJI
·:,amount that may be bet. Suppose the limit is Ssoo and we rule out favorable gambling systems for ·
have started by betting $1. If there- is a string of nine losses pnes. -
;-- ($I, $a, $4; $8, $16, $32, $64. $128, $256), the next bet
_· - Suppose, for example, that the four Aces appear Oil
1. · caJkd for by the "doubling-'!p" system is $512, and tbis · tho fir$t round that ia dealt from a fresh, thoroughly shnftfecl_
bet is not permitted. - deck. Attt:t that IOUDd is over, the cards are placed f&ceup
.- It seemed in practice that, with this limit on bets, the _oa the ldtom of _the deck an4 th6 second round- ia
caSino won the same· percentage of the ectic;>n it normally frOm the remaining unused card& Now on the second. rowirf_
• though a player was using the doubling-up sys- 110 Aces can appear; there will be no blackjacks, no soft• · -
tem•. Thus the doubling-up system provided no advantage IWlds, 8ncl no .:of Aces (splitting Aces is- highly
whatsoever to the player. The other complicated betting favorable This situation of having no AceS
. _, _ tchemes all seemed to have the same fiaw. It was no sur- in ptay·(which Is. On the average. almoSt 3 per cent agaiQs(
. prise; $en, when .it was later proven, by the: lbathematical ,tlie ·player as we shall see tater) continues. in succeedidg
\ tlieory of probability, that for most of the •pll· rounds -until the deck Is reshuftled and the Aces are broupt
tr bJing games no betting scheme can ever be devised that. back into play. . .
will- have _the slightest effect upon the casino's long-run . A few years ago one cashio made a practice of rem.ov-
:;' advantage. . . - . - •we 8ssumo and .. rou1etto wheeL For aa
; The games fOr which this is an establishecl fact include- f1f attemp. fA> bell bialed rouloUe wbeeJs. . .
those games that mafu.ematicians call independent- trials ·
41
•.-- ......
. .
-c"ci:;i.'ivtnnlng StrtJUg • 45
t
__.,,... - -- . ." .. .. . .
·· · The resu.lt was noteworthy. Wh= playing with a deck , ·; 1trareg with ODly a moderato increase in the level of diftl.
t.bat has four Aces missing. the player is at a disadvantage i c:alty. These leaden pmbabJy should not spend a great
of 242 per cent, unJ,ier best play•. It may seem that the . deal of time .practlclng the Five-count strategy. Howevere
removal of the four Acer. should affect matters much more · iinco the various dJscusaloDS in the remainder of tbiJ cllapo
remov'al.ofany·other four cards, since Aces play tee ate important to the Jacer strategies, it should still be
such a unique role in the game. They are essential for a th0iougblytea4 and UDderstood. by those who are PI Oil
natura111,nd ·for soft. bands, and they mak¢. the .most faV9r· powerrw strategies. ·
able pair. Wherever they appear, they seem to help the
_player. Thus some players may $UpPose that fluctuations - A First Winning St'l'alegy: Counllizg Fives
in _the proportion. of Aces in the deck would have a Table 4-1 shows that when four cards of one kind ate
greater effect on things than fluctuations in the propprtion iemoved from the deck. the greatest shift in the relative'
of any _of the other cards and that we ought simply to advantager. of player and house is caused by ,mnovfng the .
study Aces alone•. However, we will see that Aces alone four Fives· from the cteck. The e1fect is even greater .tbaa
aro overwhelmingly important. . _ when the four Aces are removed. More
· 'I'he computer was now asked to compute the 1ng ·the Fives gives an advantage of 3;6 per cent tho
adv.anta.ge or disadvantage, using the best player. .
playjng With decks from which were removed m · , .· __ Now, suppose that the depleted deckcontaiDs
Twos. four Threes. etc. The reslllts for the$e: -- IJ.ut· does contain enoup cards for - next round of p]q.
speclat decks are listed in Table 4.1.·The aD4 :bat therefore no Fives will appear during tho neXt
ing strategies •were computed but have been_ , It caa be abowD that theso may c:Oa--
to sa\re SJ*e. .
·_· suggests that a $ortage
. iaJues 2 tlu"ough .8 might give the player
of--,_
· _·, ·_ ·
lille.red as mathanatically identical with those that arise
Cbat the four have been remoftd. Without
- .wbile a relative excess of such cards might hurt the' · tO gms the cfetaiJed cxplaDatioD. we simply point
1.
\
r·
i
li
48 BEAT THE D.EALEJi.
memory. In particular; note that the soft standing
i: _:
:; i
II D
are the that all the· basic doubling.:ctown 1ituati0ns
it
·'
also call for doubling down when the Fives are gone, ana .t;O
'!!'§
.
tbat the same statement is tiue for pair splitting except that
fl Jl!J .
65
I' a pair of Sixes is not spllt against a dealer's up card of I
Seven. It I
If
l
f
ii,,
l:
TABLB 4.1. Pltrytr'z Advantage or Dlstltlv11111age lor Certain
Special Decks.
ll !I Ut
Description Advantage (in per cent) 10 II
c:ompleto
Q(l)=O
deck With best strategy
0.13
-2.42 '• 9
It
. - "11
t
Q(2)=0 1.75
Q(3)=0 2.14 *I
Q(4)=0
Q(S)=O
2.64
3.S8 ·
la
.h
Q(6)=0
Q(7)=0
Q(S)=O
. Q<9)5oe
2.40'
2.0S
0.43
-o.41
u
ma
!
.'"!. !
Q(lO}=O
cleck
two.clecb
four' dec:ks
1.62
o.ss [093]
-o.lS
-oAt
j lfl!lf
•
I ·h !
'· sooo dec:ks -o.ss
l t f!lfj' i
. -- Q(10)=4
. Q(l0)==8
'Q(lt>)=l2.
-2.14*
-3.13-
-i.as '
Ia1
10 10
1
[
•
Q(10)=20'
Q(10)'=24 3.51£4:241
Q(I0)=28 5A>6• [6.10*]
Q(10)=32 6.48• [7.7S*l
Q(10}=36 7.66{9.11) l!l,;l! ..
Q(9}=Q(10)=0 9.92* a l'la
Q(8)-Q(9}=Q(10)=0 19.98•--'
Q(S)= ••• :;:QOO)=O 78.14 t -
=
Key: Q(X) Y means that a panicular deck - altered by cbaDJing 0111}1
die quantity Q or carda that haft 1111medcal 'IIIIUe X so that there are now Y
!! IUdl cards. For aample. Q(2) =3 woulcl mean that in the deck there are a111J
Twos insteacl or the toar. "'TWo cleeb" - the cana. aro deal& bolia
, _ ordinary 5l-<:arcl decb 11tat laaft IIcea miXed IOielber as oae. Tlae
r!1i ,.
wbh Insurance Is O.ll per cent J11U1« for Q(l) :::0 to Q(9) =0• 1'be player
lasures only If neither or Ills bole canll Is Ten. For· Q(l0) E; » the adYan&alt
wbh Insurance folknls Ia squua ltrllcbll. ' - Wllill'·QUO) ii;Z.
.
ii
f-1,
..
• Apjll<llllmate. .. . .
' "·--
l;
,,,
,;>.
;\\'·.
.• BEAT THE DBA1.1Ul A .Winning Stmtegy S:t
· As a matter of fact. when all the Fives al'C gone it is .·Seadal. for .Wbmbig wl1h tbe Fives strategy. It tho
acceptable to use the .. in the player's dJances ohrioning some of his 8111all bets, uam.ely.,
standing -numbers llDd otherwJSC play to the bwc
some of those placed at tbe beginning of the round oa which
strategy. The errors thus
-neglecting to split pairs double down m several _m- the last FJVeS appeared. .
Suppose that you continuo over _many deals to placo
stances. Their effect is quite small. The player's
is decreased from 3.6 to 3·4 per cent. I suggest this to de-
=
large bets when Q(S) o, and small bets otherwise. Ia
crease the load on yo}lr memory. We shalt adopt .this those situitiona in which you made largo bets. J011 w1n ill
· the long run at a rate of above 3 per ceDL With your aaia1l
"'silnplified Fives strategy" in all our calcula,tions and dis-
. bets,-you Joso ill a rate of about -o.2 per cent.• If.tllo largo
tussions of the Fives
bets are big enough c:om.pared to the small bets and if tho
We now outline a simple method for winning at
favorable situations occur often enough, the profits from the
_casino blackjack. Begin by making "small" bets and using
big bets should both otfaet .the losses from the small bot&
the standard strategy. Watch the cards that are played and
and leave a comfortab1o overall'profit. .
keep track.of the Fives. When you see that all four of them
There are several questions that we must now
liave been used, check to see that the next round of play .
In detail in order to make our instructions complete. ..
will come entirely from the remainder of the deck, and
(1) How can you tell whether the remaininJ.CIIda
thus that no Fives will appear.
wiJl·be adequate for the next round Of play?
Now, you must place your bet before any of the cards · (2) How often do favorable situations arise? ·
lre dealt in this next round. However, you know that you · (3) How much larger than the small beta shoWd tho.
ha\re better than a 3 per cent advantage on wl1atever you · large bets be? . ' . .
bet. Therefore. place ·a bet 'that is ·in comparison. · (4) How fast will you make money?
to the ones you have been placing. When the cards uo
(S) How much risk is there?
employ the simpruied Fives strategy. . (6) How much capital is required to start?
We have been recoinmending tbat -if the FIVes are We will take these up in the order listed.
used up before a certain round is dealt, the should
make a large bet and usc: the simplified Fives &triite8f. Counting the Cart/a
it may happen .that some Fives remain a round of The check as to whether the remaining cards aro acfeo.
play begins and·that all of thtm appear that round. quate can be made in several ways. The SURSt s
At the mstant tbis happens the player should change to the actUally coUnt how many cards have been used ·lll_paJ-
simplified Fives strategy. For example, he is dealt
llllrd. 7 and the dealer shows a Two. Suppose that when • Oue migftt 'WOJlder why, fD tbo Rvea strategy. die small ..,....
::.::a--=
......
the player draws he receives the last remaining Five. He 110& fDstca4 win at'tfae rate of o.JO pw CCDt. the . . . 'Wia.rafe-.
now has hard-I2. Tho basic strategy says to draw. How- .. ..u -- ..
atrategy. The ·ftiiiOII .. tllat
ever, the ·Fives strategy Jl()W applies, and according to it
be sbPUld stand. ., .
.This 'is to be considered a refinement and Ja DOt es-
__
...
• ' ...
..
of pta,_. at dill_·tate. W. telectol{a liDj1e milalllr
w. . . it pesaimt.tic.
- \:·
BBAT, THE d Winning Strategy 53
For. example, after each round, you might to yourself TABLE 4.3. ,,.,. t1ie Dd Prohlb JVIli
something like "Eleven cards have been played, and I have • tor • Fall
of Pltzy. JC«ordbtg to •
Five... Count every card that is used as. "played" Coltlll of UMd CGnlr '
but only count the Fives that you have seen. For example, Remaining carcJa Ula8Jly
if a card iS burned, be to count'it whether or not you Number of adequate if caaat of mecl
see what it is. It is not necessary that you see every card cards fa DO more thaD:
that is used in play. If, however, you miss seeing any of the . l
played cards, some of them may be Fives, in which case I 41
you will miss some favorable siwations. For example, sup- s 38
pose after a certain round you see that seventeen cards "5 34
31
have been played and that three Fives have been used. 6 2.1
Suppose also that a Five has been burned and that you do 1 24
know this. nen, as far as you know, one Five may whether casinos have also tried adding Cilrds to dect.
yet-aJ>Pear, so you will make a small bet and miss the When two or more are being used, this can be doDo
oppOrtunity of exploiting a favorable situation. easily. I have only seen it done once when one deCk wil
_- If· your dealer habitually conceals the burned card, in use. That was risky. Imagine the shock and fury of a
may. wish to request that lle show it to you. It is player who picks up his hand and sees that, not onlY an
acimetimes difficUlt to know whether to make this request. both his cards Fives, but they are also both ·
It shOuld not be made jf you think that it will arouse the Another well-known method of cheating which· can
asino's suspicions that you are playing one of our win- ·often be detected by a card counter iS ca1Jed the' -mm<mll"."
aiDs, strategies, for they may_ take countermeasures that Though the name is apt. the experienc:O is not. a cfes1a;t
...0 01ore costly to you than not seeing· the burned card. treat. In the weak form of tho turnover, the-dealer Wlltche8
If the casino does not use the last card, _incorporate to see whether the first half of the deck seems to fMor tha
thiJ into your count from the beginning. The reason.for this .house strongly. If. it does not, he continues nonllaJl7• lii:Jp--
ia that the particular count, when subtracted fr<>m 52, is ing that the latter half will. However. if tho deck'dooslnor ·
IUpposed to give the number of cards yet to be played. the house during the first half, he secretly turns ·the do4
Tab.!e 4-3 is a rough guide as to when the remaining cards o\rer SO· tlult the used cards are on top and are lepJayed
• will fail to be adequate for the next round. . during the secand half. In the strong form of the mmover. ·
· Counting the used cards has other advantages· besides the dealer stacks the used cards from tho first 'half of tbo·
Jelling the player whether the unused cards are. adequate deck -as he picks them. up after' play. When tho decl: ft_
for the next round. FirSt, the training in card counting is about balf-used, he turns it over and deals out stacbd
pMparation for the more powerful, and also more difticu1t haJKJst .
winning systems to be presented in succeeding •. · ·...The unwary player generally doeS not remember w11fc1l
Secon4, the count is an inValuablo asset in the detection of cards he has just seen. if the us_ed portioa·c:oa-
because a common device is to ·remove one. or taill$ a number other dian 2lJ ·cards, the total deck will
morecaros from the deck. (One might wonder at tldJ pojnt . . toone who counts eatds, to contain twice tho DUJDblr
54 BE AT .THE DEALER· . A Wlnnlng Stiatttgy ,-
in the used portion instead of 52 Cards. Further, even .if. Many peop1e soon learn to divide the deck iJlto· pte-_·
the_ used portion contains 26 cards, 'the. may be de-_ cisely equal parts almost every time. . .. . .
tected unless it also contains two Fives. For the number of
Fives in the total deck also seems to be, to. one who is An Imprpvement in the Fives Method
counting them, tWice the in the used portion. Suppose you keep track not only of the number of
For readers who do JlOt want to count the used cards, Fives remaining but also of the total number of remaining
there is. a less satisfactory method for determining about unseen cards. Then you can estimate whether or not the .
bow many cards remain to be played. It can be used if the deck is Five-rich or Five-poor. One way is to diVide the
dealer checks to see bow near the end of the deck he is. number U of unseen cards by the number F of unseen
He does this by pUshing the lower slightly forward Fives. Normally U/F = 13. When U/F is greater than 13:
so that the upper edges of all the cards show slightly. Then =
the deck is Five-poor. (In the extreme case where F o, .
the J,JSed cards, which are face up, appear ''whiter" than the · that is, when the deck bas no Fives, U IF doesn't make
unu!fe(l cardS-provided that the unused cards, .which are But you already know what to do filen.) - ·
.face down, do not have borders that make their edges white The larger U fF, the larger your edge. When U/F is ·.
also. Th8 relative thickness of the two portions makes it 26, for the edge ·js about 1.9 per cent
easy to estimate the number of unused cards remaining. from 0.13 per-cent to 3.,8 per cent. You should bet 2 3>- -;
If you have a deck without borders, place a portion units. -
of tlle deck face up· underneath the remainder. Then skew When UIF is less than 13, the deck is FIVe-rich. The
the deck ·by pushing the bottom cards forward slightly. casino bas the advantage and you should make SDUl11 bets. __
There should be a clear line of demarcation between the The advantage of using U IF is that you find and ex-.:. ·
tw(). portions. From this you can estimate the amounts in · ploit many additional favorable situat!:on5. The method
each portion. With a tittle practice you can become quite works without change against any number of decks. ·
skillful. If you attempt the same thing with a deck having
borders it is harder, since the clear line of demarcation Frequency of Favorable Situations
usually does not appear. . The rate. at which money is won depends upon hoW ·
1 Here is a warm-up experiment that can be done with often favorable situations arise and is influenced by how
any deck; it should convince you that estimating the number many players are at the table. This dependence !II shoWn
of ·cardS in a portion of the deck is not so difficult. F'J.rst, in Table 4-4- ·
square ibe deck by striking its edge against a smooth table It clearly strengthens the player's advantage, when be. -
N;ow try to ,break the deck into two equal portions.. If is Using the Fives strategy, to play iJl·games iJl which there ·
neeessary, transfer cards from one portion to the other until are no more than five players.
they appear equal. Do not place the two stacks side by side
, . . on the table top and match their height. That Y tll'.ii:ldotv in Bet Size
the purpose of tbis experiment, which·· is to introduce you · ·1fte institictive answer to the "How mndi ·
to estimating by_ eye alone. After a few attempts you tarp,rlt.n the small bets should the· large bet be?" is "As
find that rarely, if ever, are you "off" more than tvlo carck • JaJp·aa poSsible." for· it _is the 1arge bets that ·
•,
56 BBAT.TllB D'BAt.Blt 4 .Winning Strategy 57
. are responsible for the profit. However are some cir- o.oo2 x 90 x $x, or xu,. 011 the uofalozablo situatioua.
CQmStances that· need to .be considered. and gaiD. o.o.34 x io x Ssoo, or $170. 011 the favorable
situations, for a net profit of $16g.82. If iDstead we bet
TABLE 4.4. Variation ln"the Number.of K110wn Favorable $125 in the Ullfavorable lituationli, we would lose 0.002
Situations, When Fives Only Are Counted, u a . x. 90 X or $22.50 in theae instances bUt would again
Function of the Number of Players. ·
wm $170 m the favorable situations for a net pro& of
Approximate $147-50.
number of times Average amount iD .. · It should be emphasized that these profit 1ig1m:s are
Number of ·Fives are gone ta:rge units, won
players per hundred hands per hundred hands rough avc:rage for large J1UJDbe.r of .bands.
1 9.8 0.33
In-any brief series of a few hundred hands, there will
2 5.9 0.20 JikeJy be considerable deviations from these figmea. WZJ
3 6.5 0.22 We can now use these figUres to estimate the awnge
4 3.5 0.12 hourly wage for the F.wes system. that we. are
. '6 6.0
0.9
0.20
O.o3 playing on at the rate of xoo handS per hour. We
7 1.7 0.06 saw preVIOusly that we average about $140 per hour when
our bets range from $125 to Ssoo. 'I'herefcmJ wellioal(t
a
If player goes along steadily betting $ r and then make Ss.6o. per hoUr when we bet from $5 to $2o;. 1be · "'
suddenly, every once in :a while bets S,soo, he may soon be player who only bets from so# to $2 will make a modeat
the object of study by the casino operatoG. If be is win- s6f per hour. .
ning, they are very likely to take countermeasures. One· One sldlled player whom I know asserts that he
simple and effective method is to shuftle the deck after •· play 3SO hands per hour W,hen playing head on. Betting. •
the player bas made his large bet and before any cards are from $x to $5oo, he wo1lld ave.tage $170 x 3·5 or about
dealt. Although the player can then remove his large bet, Ssgs per hour. It is. in the sy.stem player's beat iDfaest 10
his favorable situation is destroyed. be able !'>
play rapidly; When more players ate ..,._..
·.Thus it·seems judicious 'to reduce the size of the bet. the tnu:tion .of hands that. are favorable dwindles. Futthet-
variation to a level that does not attract so much attention. more, .BUlCe -1t takes longer to play out a 1'0UJld. each pJaJer
The first edition of Beat the Dealer has made the casinos getS kwer hands per hour. . ·
very cautious. Consequently Jbe large bets should be no
more than three or four times the size of the smaller bets.
Required, Extent of Risk, Rate of Profit
Let us run through a simple calculation to see haw costly We will now answer the questions:
this is. · , How mttCh capital is required to start?
Suppose we are playing 100 han98 per hour head on .llqw much risk is there? . '
with the uealer. Then, aceording to Table 4.4, there are · .What is the average rate of profit?
about 9.8 favorable sitUations at 34. per cent in favor . .• Yust you must 4ccicto. how much your iDitial capital
!he player and about 90.2 unfavorable ones at pn- cent_ You must NEVER.Ni'VBa play that
ucfavor of the house. If we are betting $1 and $500, we it.. !lillhurt
you to lose. Besides the
58 BEAT THE DEALER
this, there is one more: playing with money that you can..
not afford to lose produces psychological disintegration,
bad play, and cOnsequently a greater chance of defeat.
Conversely, playing with money that means little to you
to cool confidence and devastatingly accurate play.
Now you have cut your stake to a sensible level. Next
you must decide how small to make the chance of ever
losing your entire stake. For any stake, the player has many
I! choices. If he plays boldly, taking a large.chance of being
I
l
T
ruined, .he can make a comparatively large amount per
hour. Instead the player may divide his stake into so many My Ideas Are Tested
t units that there is virtually no chance to "lose it all. But ·
i the price paid for this is a considerable. reduction in aver..
in Nevada
l age profit.
As an indication of what to expect, suppose that
.
:I in.
£1 10 that you will ever lose your stake. They are more
1- 9 in 10 that your capital will grow indefinitely. If I thought that the strategy based on counting Fives
. • jour stake is only 75 units, the chances are about 3 in 10 make an interesting paper at an upcoming Annual
of eventually losing it and 7 in Io of its continuing to grow of the American Mathematical Society in Washington, D.C.
· as long as you care to play on. I planned to fty down from the Massachusetts IDstitUte of
Before we .get on with learning practical winning Techllology, where I was then teaching and where I made
strategies, we take time out in the next chapter to describe my blackjack computer calcUlations. A few days before tho
' the original casino test of the first of these strategies, the meeting. the society, as is customary, published abstracts
,j Jl()W famous Ten-count method. of the two hundred or so talks that were to be givea. In-·
;:
•I
eluded was my abstract describing the Fives strategy, ..For-
tune's Formula: A Wmning Strategy for Blackjack" [67].
Two evenings before I left for the meeting. I was sur-
prised by a call from Dick Stewart, of the Boston Gloh
· inquiring about the abstract. The paper sent a photographer-
out to take my picture; meanwhile I explained the basic
ideas of my system to Mr. Stewart over the telephone.
Tile next morning I was amazed to see a picture of
myself with a story on the front page of the BoSUN& GloH
• st•
-, --
[1.
60 BE.AT THE
[4]. Within hours, the story and more pictures were released
My ltktu A.re Tuted
. .
iia Nevada
.
· . 61 ,
'
l
l.
[' by the news services to their thousands of subscribing news- Prtparation8 . '
,, papers across the ·country (6. 27, 39, 43. 57. 7.8]. When I told Mr. X of my interest, he drove up frOm
1' . Following my paper in Washington, I wu. forced to
New York One Sunday. He showed mo enough of his pJ&<>
\: give. a press conference. After this ·I was· televised by a tical gambling knowledge and c:ard skill to persuade me that
'7! major network and interviewed on a number of radio pro- he could detect cheating. At tile invitation and ex-
j\ grams. When I returned to my office at the Massachusetts pense of"Mr. X and Mr. Y, I lew from Boston to
il Institute of Technology, my desk was heaped with mail York several times to discuss the system and to plan a trip
h and phone messages. spurred by the continuing publicity to NevadL
!i·. .· too.- 6sJ. . .
During the next weeks hundreds of letters and long
As the reader may have already learned from practiCe
at home or in the casinos, the FIVes system wins "too slowly"
phol)e calls rained in, the bulk of which were ri> because the good situations that it locates are fairly rare.
for copies of my paper and any .further available Fortunately I was already working on a far more powerfUl
information. Interspersed amQng this correspondence were· system when I announced the Fives system. This was the
\1
l a number of offers to back me in a casino test
of my system. ThO amoUnts proftered ranged from a few
. ten-count method, described in detail in Chapter 8. It was
this method that I piatmecl to use in the casino test. To mate
thousand dollars to as much as $100,000! Together they the story easier to follow, I describe this method briefly.
l totaDed a quarter of a million dollars. The player keeps track of two kinds of cards, TeDI
i ' - CarcfuJJy, I screened the offers. I an if
lf.e persons putting up the money could·not prove
! that they could dcml to Jose tbeir total investment. The rea·
and non-Tens or "othen." 'Ibele are 16 Tens in each deck
and 36 others. The player's edge is measlited by tho ratb'
of others to Tens. For one fun deck, it is 36/16 or 2.2$.
11 sonfs, of coune, that there is some aman risk of a very bad When. the ratio Js betow 2.25, the player has the edge..
11 streak even with wiJming Slrategies. as we discussed earlier. Wlleft it is abOve, the casino has the edge. Roughly speak-
!i1 . I was also worried about the poss1"bilities of cheated. ing, the farther the ratio gets below or above 2.25, tho
· Since the $100,000 was the most attractive, I con- gRAter is the elfect. .
aldered itfirst. It was offered jointly by two New Yu-kmulti- The player has the edge half the time and his edge
n millionain:s, whom I sbaU tefcr. to as Mr. X and lvfr. Y. ranges up to IO. or IS cent. The casino edge only
\1 TheY are both large-scale gamblers. Mr. Yonce lost $Ioo,· ranges up to about 3 per cent! ·
ooo in one of the casino games without being hurt There .were two main approache$ that we c:ouJd adopt
·r finandally. Mr. X's gambling actiyities involve hundreds of for betting. which I shall term "wild,"involve$ betting
i! thousands and even millions of dollarS in profits; he has the. casino limit whenever the advantage to the player ex-
·jl been famous for years in gambling ckc1es from M"aami to ceat.· some sman figure, say 1 per eent. This method
•' Las VegaS. I later 1eamed both that he was famUiar with dnCes, on tho average. the greatest gain in the shortest
:;: thc'exptoits of "thO little' dark-haired guy" (Chapter 3) and However in a short ron of a few days the fluctuations in
\: that he had large sums himself at blackjack. he the· player's tc)tal capital· generally are violent. and a large .
·; was thoroughly "sold" in baDkroJ1 is required. Mr. X and Mr. Y said that they would
1
62 BBAT THB DBAJ.Blt " Myldeos Tested in Nevada 63
back this approach to the extent of $Ioo,ooo and that the,. •· lisluJieqt closed for three. hours of Good l1riday,
would go farther if necessary. ·· ·· we returned to Reno. During the evemng we investigatecl
; .llUDlbel- of casinos to determine which had rules that were
The $zo,ooo BankroU . . most As the best spot for practicing, we selected
I was not in favor of the wild approach since there were ' a casmo. that dealt down to the last card and allowed the
too many things I did not know about the gambling world. ; down on any hand, split any pair, and m.
l· also had no idea how I or my backers would rezct if I ; found. sure. This IS a more favorable set of rules thaJl is ordinarily.
. .
were to get behind, say, Sso,ooo. Furthermore, the purpose
of the trip from my point of view was'· to test my system After a sumptuous dinner and a rest, I returned alono.
rather. than to big money for Mr. X and Mr. Y. So to the casino we had chosen. It was then about 10 P.M. Mr.
I preferred being certain of a moderate win, rather than at• ·X did not accompany me because he is·wen known·to that
lemJ>ting ·a probable. but sotttewhat uncertain. big win. I casino's owner and we did not wish to attract attention. I
therefore favored another approach, which I .shall began by alternately playing for fifteen or twemy minutes at
servative" play. 'Ibis involves betting twice the of a time and then resting for a few niinutes. Whenever.I
·the minimum bet when the advantage is ·x per .would sit down again I would always choose the table with
times tho minimum wheri the advantage is 2 per cent. and the fewest players. My· behavior pattern-1 pauSed for
finaDy leveling off at ten the minimum when the ad- thought and stated at all the cards played-made it appar-:
vantage is s per cent or more in the player's favor: I deter- ent that I was using some "system." But systelli players aro
mined that if my bets would range.from Sso to •. frequent. if not common. in the casinos.IQ. fact, they &Je
· highest casino maximum generally available), then $6.opo welcoDie as long as they are losing, and gradually I feD .·
or:$r;ooo would probably be adequate To be safe, further behind until. by S A.M., I \vas down $100. ·
we took along $xo.ooo-a hundred one-hundred-dollar At this time, business fell off sharply and I was finally
bills. .able to get a table completely to myself. My new dealer was
.,When theM. I. T. one-week spring recess came, Mr. X : 'ParticularlY unfriendly. When I asked to be dealt
ud I flew on_ a Thursday evening to Reno, where Mr. Y was . .she refused. saying that it was house policy that I must bet
to join us later. We checked into one of the large Reno ' $2 per hand to play two hands. Since this change in the
hotels at about 2 A.M. and immediately went to sleep. Early 1•acale of bettinJ would confuse my records of the evening's .
the next morning we began investigating casinos. . play. I refUsed. Besides, I was getting and irritable. ·
. I pointed out to this dealer that at least eight
Thtt Warm-up dealers had let me play two hands without complaiut ad
Out. plan, titsisted upon by me, was to proceed with tllerefore it could hardly be a house policy. She said that the
caution. We would -start "small," betting $I to $10, and reason was to keq» other players from being crowded out.
would gradually increase the amount of the bets as I gained remarked dtat there were no other players at my table,
experience. Eventually we planned to bet Sso ber.reason did seem.to apply. She became angry'at
Fm;t we drove to a casino outside of'tOWD. m·.an hour·- .and dealt anap1clly as she could. .
or s0 of play I won i.few dollars, and theD when the estab- , few hands later, the ratio of others/Tens dropped to
f4 DBAT THB Dlh\'Lif My ldeasAre Tested In Nevada .65
2.0, a I per cent advantage for me. Being 'thoroughtY- •-Mdl ·again visited the casino outSide town. Within minutes. .
aoyed by. now, I broke my self-imposed discipline. I playing the' $1o to $100 scalo, I won $200 or $30o.
vanced to $2 to $20 scale and ·bet $4- I won and the ,Mf', X joined me and we played for a couple of hours. Wo
ratio advanced to 1.7, a 2 per cent advantage. I let my .accumulated $650, aild the house began to shuft'le tbe deck
ride and won again. The ratio obligingly diopped to 1.5, .a· cards before the end. Since the favorable situations
4 per ce11t advantage. I let my $16 ride and won again. I arise with greatest frequency at the end of the deck, shuf- ·
Jeft-$20 of this $32 on the table with the remark that it was :ling up can sharply reduce the rate of profit. Because we
time for me to take a small profit. The ratio fluctuated boo ' cwere only practicing,. it seemed discreet for us to leave now
tween 1.4 and and I continued to make $20 bets. By and hope that we could come back later fora few fuU-scale
the time we came to the. end of deck, I had recoupect llourS. _
my $100 Joss and had a few dollars' profit besides. Mr. X and I were still expecting Mr. Y in Reno. On
As I picked up my winnings_and left, .J noticed im Saturday evening Mr. Y arrived. After dinner Mr. Y and
mixture of auger and awe on the dealer's face. It. was as :1 set out to seek our fortune. We first visited the famous .
though iho had peeked for a brief moment through,a famil- Harold's Club, ari enormous building in the center of down-
iat door i!tto a familiar room and, maybe, she had. glimpsed :town Reno. We began to play at the Ssoo-maximum tables.
aometbhig ·strange and impossible. (The maximum. generally ranges from $100 to Ssoo in
' This session bro'!lght mixed blessfhgs. I wouid Nevada, varying from casino to casino and frequently from
-agree my rash behavior in a few days, for the casino's opera- table to table within a glven casino. With our capital, we
tom:toet apeciaf notice of me. On the other hand, my attenio preferted the highest maximum possible.) In fifteen minutes
Cion was drawn to the doubling-up betting pattern that I had }1{e won Ssoo, warming up at a .$25 to $250 scale. Our
used in the last few minutes; it c:onsisted of betting I ,dealer decided to alert the management of the casiao. She
winning and letting the 2 units ride, winning and letting the pressed a concealed button with her foot. Within minutes
4 units ride. etc. This pattern of play resembles· the well· Smith and Jr•• arrived. They eJtchanged plea&-
known doubUng-up system, or Small Martingale, which is antnes and politenesses With· us, but they made their point:
widely almost every gambling game. The pattern J deck be shuflled as often as necessary to prevent
used above JS not senst'ble for those gambHng games ill ··PI from • .
the house has the advantage; but in blackjack, with. . Most casmo owners had learned, over the last decade.
the player's use of counting methods, it is as profitable as some players would wait until very special combina-
any other way of putting·down money at timeS. tions of cards arose, near the end of the deck, and that
Forthern\Ol'O, since the system is so. widely and so ·thea they would sharply up their bet, sometimes going
fully practiced, it makes an excellent disguise for the count1 from $I to Ssoo. These players were stopped by shuflHng
ing player. Also, the casual touch of leaving your • -t» deck five or ten cards from the end.
untouched between hands seems nice. Therefore, to be safe Harold Smith, Sr., instructed. our
to shuflle no later than I2 to 1' cards from end.
• 66 B BAT. THE D.BAL,Blt. ·My ltktu A.a Tested In Nevada
Fortunately for them. they waited to see the results. We were ·whether to quit if I lost this one, I picked up my hand and
not .planning any ulterior moves; we to use the foUnd· a pair of Bights. They bad to 1» split. I tlung three
. same Tens strategy that we had used all evenlng. This strat· $too billdrom my wallet onto the second Bight. On one of
eg locates favorable situations after the first hand.has been tho Bigllts I was dealt a Three. I had to double down so I
played. even if only four cards have been dealt. tlung three more $xoo·bills onto this hand. There was, now
A few minor yet favorable situations appeared and · $900 lying on the largest bet I had yet made.
were exploited by us. Thereupon the deek was shuf:lled 25 · The dealer was showing a Six up turned out to
cards from the end. Some favorable situations still arose. have a Ten under. He promptly busted. Now I was only
F'mally. the de8ler began shufDing 42 cards from the end, $800 down. This deck continued to be favorable and the
that is, after only two hands bad been played! This fencing next went after the first band. In a few minutes
went on for twenty minutes or so, and in that time a com· I wiped out all my losses and went ahead $255. With this
bination of bad luck. the club's unfavorable rules, and the ·burst of good fortune, Mr. Y and I decided to quit for tho
sbuftling allowed us to squeeze out only an additional $So. _evening. .
It seemed useless to continue playing at this casino, so we Again the Tens system had shown a feature that woul4
stopped. appear .repeatedly: moderately heavy losing strea.ta. JDixcd
·We then visited a casino in one of the .large hotels. with "lucky streaks" of the most dazZling briUiance;
We had been told that they used a "cheat" dealer on "big- Theaext aftetnoon Mr. X, Mr. Y, and I visi.ted tbe:ea- · ·
·money" players. After being cheated on the very first hand, sino outside tow1i BefOre sitting down to play, I
in-an incident descn"bed in detail in the chapter on cheating, . made a phone call. WbeD I c;_aDle back my friends told me
we on. the casino bad barred us from play but that it would be
only too happy to pick up our meal tab. I called over tho
Nine Hululred Doll({rs Bet on a-Single Hand· tloor manager and asked him what this was aU about. He
Ia the 'next casino the was only $300, but explained, In a and manner, dlat tbe
this .limit was compensated for by excellent rules: the staff had seen me play:ing the aay that tbq. were
coukUnsure, split any pair, double down on any set of very puzzled by my steady whining at, a rate that 'Was large.
cards. Wi( purchased ·$2,000 in chips from the cashier and for my bet sizes. He said also that they could not fi.gore out
selected a table at which there were no other players. I lost .what was going on but that they had 1ina1ly decided, ia tho
steadily, and at the end of four hours of play I was almost light of their that a card-counting sy&-
$r,700 behind. I was quite discouraged. However !followed tem was involved. My was becoming hanl to
the pattern of countless hapless players before :me (with, I detect.
hope, decided to wait for the' deck to bC- Evidently they were discouraged when .they esthtWecl.·
come favorable "just once more" so l could recoup some the power of the system that faced them, for 1I09f lball-
of my losses. ager said that the owner had deliberated at length befoie
In a few minutes the deck obliged, suddenly producing . · to bar us. The casino, he said, had fearlessly played
aiatioofothersjTensof 1.4,a S percent advantage, which 'c cam he reeled off a series of
caUed for the maximum bet of $300. Curiously, my rettl&illlo"'.& .' rbat JJJeailt JJOthing to me-and bad beaten 1hem
ing chips amounted to preciiely $300. As I tried to ·. · '-al\
- _-. .. cme exception. He described the oaly piaF that
VitJl
68 BBAT My ld«u .u.· Tutetl fn N.,.g;, ·159 ·1
had been previously barred as "'a little dark-Juiired guy t
from Southern We have- already mentioned The Twenty--Five-Dollar Minimum Game
this . individual and wiD say more about him and other My friends and I were again ready for. I
fam.ous early players later on. . both in the andd )in the l!
We returned to our hotel, and while my friends took of the .SJlDl total of all bets·ma e ear1y on ay
. CJU'C, of business for a couple of hours, I passed the time We drove to the south end (Stateline) of Lake Tahoe.
away by betting Ss to Sso at the blackjack tables. Despite About 6 P.M. we arrived at Harrah's large, brightly lighted I
· the annoying presence of a shUl, I won about Ssso. At this gambling It was jammed. I was barely able to get
point, the pit boss asked me to stop playing at the hotel a seat at the blackjack tables.
and to tell the same to Messrs. X and Y and any other A few··minutes after I plated on the table the $2,000
:,friends I might have. He did say, however, that we could worth of chips I had purchased from the cashier, a pit bOStl
. enjoy iuilimited drinks on the house. Immediately I had a rushed over to invite me to dinner and the show. I in tum
Moscow mule and then went to tell my friends that they requested (with success) that my two friends be included.
Jlad been banned from this casino without their ever having I began a game and within a few minutes-as I began to
_-played .there. win-Mr. X joined me. In forty minutes, I won $1,300, and ·.
It was almost suppertime Sunday when the three of us Mr. X. who was betting wildly. won $2,000. Then we .took ,:,
revisited the casino at which I had made the $900 bet. I time out tOr our free dinner. which featured filet mignOn ana .·
was warmly remembered as the rich playboy Qf the night be- champagne. Within hours, destiny would present us ·With
who had. been down $1,7cio before wriggling off the a bill for our "free" dinner. The charge? Eleven thousand
book by some quirk of fate. We were invited ·to dine, dollars! ,
courtesy of .the bouse, .as a prelude to the evening's gaming · After. dinner we strolled across to Harvets Wagoia
festivities. After two $4 entrees of baked oysters on the half Wheel. There were both the $500 limit and acceptable ruleS.
and yarious supporting dishes. with wine, I set As usual, I purchased $2,ooo in chips from the cashier and
out unsteadily for the gaming tables: I was truly· selected the least b\isy _table. From the I Waa
a lamb readied for the slaughter. Within a few minutes. how- plagued by $r bettors who came and went, generally slOw-
ever; I was at peak After four bouts' of betting $25 Ing down the game, who concealed cards so that they were
to $300, I was ahead $2,000. Since I was beginning to tire, hard to count. and who created many other small annoy-
. with the utmost reluctance I decided to return to my hotel. ances•
. I remember that casino fondly: the courtesy eel hos- Whenever a small bettor arrived at the table I pointedly
pitality, the spacious, attractive modem dining room with 'its reduced my minimum $50 to $1. After a
.fine cuisine, and the.. casino with its juicy little clusters of utes the pit boss "got tho message" and asked me if I wouic1
.blackjack tables, the favorable rules. and last but not· a private. table. When I said it Would "transport Die
the free money.* · with.f:l:i&tUy.",he explained that, in general. tlie club did ·not
.like ihe psychological effect of a private table qn the other
· •niS casino had its revenge. Nine months tater lrevisitecUr. A
lki'UM cheat separated me from $6oo in tOn minutes (at $25 pei -a
However, with trace of a smile. be said that a
Wore I realized "times had changed.• · - could arranged, and wondered if
70 BBA'I' TH.B nEA:LBB. My Ideas An Test.etl"Jn.Nevada 1i ·•·
that .would be satisfactory•.J promptly agreed, and a sig.n to After wending my Ulyssian way back t9 -I·
that effect was installed. which cleared table of aU cus- watched,· horror-stricken. ·Mr. X. 1laving refused tO.'stop ·
tomers_ but. me. A small crowd gathered: quietly to watch playing, was pouring back thousands. In the forty--A"* min- ·
their·. somewhat plumpish fellow lamb go to the slaughter. utes that it tOok to pel'Sllade him to leave, it cost:tfte two
Seventeen Thousand Dollars in Two Hours of us about $n,ooo of our $17,000. Even so, when we_
After I had won a few hundred dollars, the pit boss
to
returned our hotel that evening we were ahead $13,000
so far on trip. · . .
was amazed and delighted to see another ''well-heeled" On Tuesday we paid ·a series of \'isits't9...a downtowJI
laml;).wandet up and sit down at my table; it was none other club that had bad rules and shuftled five to ten cards from ,1
than my friend Mr. X, who thereupon "jumped in" the the end. We but steadily lost about $2.ooo, ptar- · •
game. 1 then took the responsibility, for both of us, for keep- ing Sso to $soo. The player could dou?le down on 1:0 mid ·
ing the count and calling the signals. Within thirty minutes II only, cou1d not insure, and the bit soft 17. As will . ·'
we had emptied the table's money tray-the blackjack ver· be seen in the chapter on niles variations, the player is
lion of "breaking the bank." The once smiling pit boss trem- whittled down at an average .rate of slightly less than 1 per
bled with fear. cent while awaiting favorable situations. Although these sit-
- Otl1Cr- began to panic. One of our -dealers uations dO 8rise, they are reduced somewhat in botJ:l
bleated to -bee boyfriend higher-up, "Oh, help me. Please. queney and favorability. Playirig Sso to Ssoo, the Teas
Help me." The pit boss was trying to explain away our win strategy perhaps Ssoo •.per h?ur• ·with favorable
to a -nervous knot of subordinates. While the money_ tray ru.les and about $400 per hour Wlth typical rules. t With the·
wu being restocked, the crowd swelled. They began to unfav9f'&ble rules- just described, the strategy probably· pro- .·.·
chc:er. on their David again the casino Goliath. , duces about $250 per hour, and the risk of bad fluctuatiOns
One bystander blurted out rather loudly that he had rises sharply:t . ·
seea 1,1S off to a roaring start in Reno two nights earlier and The new and powerful strategy works qutte· <
wondered if we had done there what. we were now doing wen on these unfavorable casinOs. That strategy, presented .
As the pit boss listened attentively, we quickly hushed in Chapters 6 and ;, allows the player to couht aU the card&.
up the bystander with tales of woe. It i$ no more difficult than the Tens strategy. ·
. .In two hours we broke the. bank again. The great heaps My friends and I recalled that the club in .which I
of chips in front of us included more than $I 7,ooo in profits. so lengthily had excellent rules and made a prac-" ·
I bad won about $6,ooo and Mr. X, betting had won tice of dealing down to the last card in the deck. We .
$n,ooo. I was tiring rapidly. The aftereffects of our-huge to pay it a Tetu.(n visit. Mr. Y and I purchased $1,ooo-.m :
dinner, the increased effort in managing two hands, and the chips and begatl to We immediately begatt to wm,
S!I'ain of the last few were telling. I began to but within minutes the owner_ was on the scene. In a panic.
•very difficult to count properly and saw that Mr. X he savo_ the dealer and the .pit boss instructions. . .
·ecpaU,y·· far I insisted that we quit, and in . 1?illli· aa amazing perfotmance began. Whenever I··
my $6,ooo. As I did so, I was startled to find three or four
prqtty girls wandering baf:k and forth across m1 patlutnft..
ing a1fectiQDately. · ·
72 B B AT . T H B'. DB A L BIt' My Ideas Are Tested in ]llevada · 11
changed my bet size, the dealer sbufBed. Whentwer l varied A.fter. disposing .of that particular . theory., I .
the p\lmber of bands I tOok (by this time I could play from them to tell us What they thought about my "secret."_
-one to eight hands at one time and faster than tho best The dealer claimed then that I could count every card as
dealers could deal), the dealer shulllecl. The dealer against it was played. an4 that therefore I knew exactly which cards
wbom'I had played last in my practice session was standing-
1
bad not yet been played at each and every instant. Now, is
_in the background (had she ..fingered" me?), saying over well known ·to students of mnemotechny (the science of
and over in reverent tones how much I had advanced in memory training) that one can readily learn to memorize
akill since the other night Finally I happened to seratch my in proper order part or aU of a deck of cards as it is· dealt
nose and the dealer shuflied! Incredulous! I asked her out. · l am familiar enough the
wb.ethc:r she would shuftlo each time I scratched my nose. volved b41 to know that the informatioP, when so memor-
She said she would. A few more scratches convinced me she ized, cannot be used quickly enough for play in blackjack.
m.eant. _what :sho said. I asked whether any change in my So l challenged the dealer by rashly claiming that no one in
behaVIOr pattern,-no matter how minute, would cause her to the world could watch 3S cards dealt quickly off a
lhuftle. She said it would. then tell me quickly how many of each kind of card re-
., I was now playing merely even with the house, • as the mained. . . '
ihuflling destroyed nearly aU tny advantage (except that She answered by claiming that the pit boss next to her
pined from seeing the burned card). But by chance I could do just tbiit.l told them I ·would pay. Ss on the.tpot
ahead about $300. I then asked for some larger- for a demonstration. They both looked and-
denomination chips-$ so or $1oo-as aU I bad were twen- would not answer. I made my offer Sso. They remained
ties. The owner stepped forward and said that the house 'silent and ashamed. Then my friend Mr. Y .increased the
ymuld not sell them to us. He then had a new deck brought offer. to Ssoo.There was no response from these "'sports-
m carefully spread, first face down, then face up. men." We left in disgust. . _
Curious,l asked why they spread them face down. Although At the next club that Mr. Y. and I visited, the bllick-
the· practice is a common one in the casinos, seldom do they jack tables were packed, so we about a privatO
examine the backs of the cards for a couple of minutes, as game. A balding, effeminate man scampered· out and
these people were doing. The dealer explained that it was nervous high tones told us that he knew What we were up
believed that I had unusually acute vision (1 wear glasses) · to and they were on to aQd "No, thank you...
and could distinguish tiny blemishes on the backs of the sportsman!
Q8fds. This, they surmised, is what enabled me to foretell Since I had proved the system and the D}illionaires W
were going to be dealt. lsco1fed, bitt the house busiDess elsewhere, we agreed to terminate ®.f. little .gam•
stiJl panicky as my wins continued, brought in foui ..; bling experiment. In thirty man-hours of large-
tfecks in fiVe minutes. - - . · scale play, we had built $1o,obo intq $21,000. At. JJC)I·
did we have to go into our original capital-more than
· _expenses). Our experiment was a and
pertonned practice just as the theory on
preaicted lt would. . . , ·
·- hour to kill before leaving for the airpoit.
_....._.
BEAT 'tHE DBALEll
we visited a friend of Mr. X at the Primadonna, a casino
the friend operated. I was in favor of having a Jastbig round
6
of play, but Mr. X did not want his friend "hurt." Rapidly
bored by the conversation, I wandered to the blackjack
tables. I found three silver dollars in my pocket, inflicted on
me as change by the last local merchant I had patronized.
I decided to dispose of the silver dollars at the table. Soon
a great sequence of favorable situations came along, and in The Simple Point-Count
________
five J,Dinutes my $3 became $35. Mr. X's friend never knew
that a word from Mr. X had saved him more than $1,000
in that few
My trip to Nevada gives an ironic twist to the words of
a casino operator Vf}lo was being interviewed on a national , ...
television program. When he was asked whether the cus-
tomers in Nevada ever walked away winners, he said,
· "'When a lamb goes to the slaughter, the lamb might kill
the butcher. But we always bet on the butcher." · edition of Beat the Detlln' were
. The day of the lamb had come. Many readers of the first · · " int.;coWlt" sys-
able to discover for themselves .pothe .fidt edition
tems. • These systems were n?t present no:been completed;.
=
because the needed calculations had both
The point-count systems Will be in dealing with
l
Concha It is one of about ten in San Juan that bavo
count changes. As an extreme example, if only low cards
Wt, the player sh9uld always draw 15. • Since
C&$inos. Henry _settled •where. Casino hours were gc:n-
erallY from 8 P.M. to 4 A.M. N and'! arrived
l
he eould draw at most a Six he could never bust, and draw-
ing must itnptOve his Iiand. got settled. and played for ll couple of hours. ·
get the feel of things. M had come several days
· Roughly speaking, when the point count is plus, stand and bad won about $1.000 so far. He showed us
more double down more often, an4 split more often.
and it soon became appar_ent that there were signiftc8Dt
·When the point count iS minus, draw more often, double
differences between the Puerto Rican game and the Nevada
dOwn· less often, and split less often. The .details will be
game. . -
covered ill Chapter 7. With this background on the strategy First, the Puerto R1can casinos were government _re_g.-
chtiriges.- r can describe my Puerto Rican advcnmre and
·
ulated. This meant that ofiicial printed rules of
-the Salmon's" great Sso,ooo win. ·' blackjack were posted on tho wall of each casino. in plaiD
! sight. The same was true of many The
Henry Motgan and 1 visit Puerto Rico_ couldn't suddehly change the rules .on as they had
After the first edition of '{Jeat the Dealer was out, I Nevada. You may recaJJ. for example, that in the test of the
apj)eared on Got a Secret'' (April. 1964). My "secret" Ten-count system (Chapter S) Harold's Club up_
was, of course. that I coUld rapidly and consistcrntly win at ; on me and another club refused to sell me Iarge-ssze chips.
casino blackjack un<ler the· usual playing conditions. But The· two ot:11et games that were played, roulette
Gary Moore, moderator of the had a secret for and craps. also had their rulc;s and reguliltions posted. Tho
the panelists too. secret was .that Henry ,Morgan was rules for the games were unitotm (a optionJ were at--
to.try out the system in the Puerto casillO$. on a bank- lowed) for the several 'casinos we visited. ·
roll .of $200. Henry was to report back to the program As lin added protection for both customer and casino. ·
the following week. .. . . a govc.t'DDlCDt man was on duty ill the casino playing area _at
·x·decided to go down, too.. and see. \;Vhat ·1, aU1imes. &ld. every etfort was made infoml
RiCitn_casinos like. Messrs. M,ancJ / these.facts.'lbfs CODti;asts with _tho, situation_-
YOt-k entrepreneurs (also the promoters of_ ·"! · ..,
think..., was dealt face up frQm two.
. •To ezpens: 1
lie shoukfDl, but to pvo them llcii WOII!d-O!Ily J\ .. - .· . · · ·
. . .. _·:,
80 BBAT TBB ·D.BAL'Bll ... The Simple ·Point-Count System Jt.
deeka. 'l'he. cards were dealt from a dealiDg box, or "shoe." .. The rules \VCI'C Jike the typical rules of (llaptet 2; with
This makes the sleight-of-hand card ·lriCltely- 5o· oftett ._ one important exception. Doubling down Was to·
COPntere&Hn Nevada (but so seldom noticed; see Chapter totals of hard u only. When questiqned, tbe casbioe said
10 for clctails) much less likely. Don't think you can'( be that soft 21 could also be counted as 11 and doubled down
cheated from a dealiDg box. You can, as we'll see ·shortly. (m (the printed rules seemed to imply it.also). They were
:&ut the Wrlety of cheating methods are fewer and the quite aniused by the question and wondered w)lat f9ola
chances of catching them are higher. So they deftnitely dis- , would ever double down on soft 21.
C)Qurage cheating. · Here's an example where doubling down ou soft 21 fa
To further discourage cheating, two decks with dif. the best play! Suppose you are keeping track of totalpoints.
ferent color backs (e.g., one red deck, one blue deck) were total remaining cards, and total Aces. Suppose
geaerally used. The top of the dealing box was tnoStly open you have just been dealt (A,Io) and shows a.zo.
ai1Ct you could seo the color of the back of the top card. If Suppose also that the point total is riow + 3, there are tbNe
closely you could sometimes also see the.oolor cards left, and no Aces left. Then the three cards left unseea
Of the back of the card dealt to you. The dealer's hand often i are all Tens. So the dealer's hole-ard is a Ten. He has 20;<
oo'Wered the .card so wen during the instant before the card he can't draw, and you.will win one and a half times yo\11'
was-turned face up that the color couldn't be determined. If : original bet from your natural, or bladcjack, if you stOp
you saw a red card and got a blue one, you would know. you fl'. now. But if you double down, you will get another. 10 fQr
wore cheated. · a total of ordinary 21. Your 21 beats the dealer"s and
. . Another nice feature of the Puerto Rican casinos Is you walk away with twice your original bet, instead· of oa1y
that no liquor is served in them. A favorite device of the l one and a half times iL ..
Nevada casinos is to ply their customers with liquor. 1 Admittedly this is an expert· play. You would not bO
This is often done deliberately, to impair the player's judg- ; expected to do it after learning only the simple point count.
JDODt and to remove .his inhibitions. It works. I have seen However, once you have masJered Chapter 7, there is_-&
1'/ell-heeled -drunks who pay their employees one dollar an good chance you will be capable of such feats. The point _
hour fting thousauds across a blackjack table in a few l of the story here is that precision play of this sort was ·be-
And l have seen poor drunks Write checis t yond the imagination of the casino personnel we met.
cover. The last am perhaps tho saddest cases. The 1.. There was one other important rule in PuertQ ·Rico.
Puerto Rican casinos willingly serve unlimited snacks- ! The betting limits were $1 to Sso. compared with $1 to
sandWiChes. Cokes, 'lbo•1ltm0Sphere is f!uiet and re- $500 in most of the larger establi$hments. The
)axed. Evenmg dress is the rule. - maximum win rate in 'Puerto Rico would .only be about
The blackjack rules allOWed the player to play as one tenthwhat in Nevada. So M'.s wiA of.$1,000 in
many initial hands {before pair splitting) as thete 111010 three ore fou! days a win
i-
empty places. There so a , . _ _ . _ l (multiplyins .U bets by IP)-.of $1o,ooa. .
ji
l: ·-.•.Ia' the·evenin.. g.'sw.arm-
..
J :_
could play seven hands at a time. Ttle:patet.- • ..
of hands per hour, the the 4ch,._ . . .After
the stratns of IS
S
teadjnstmg
i: used. so we goD*II1y playe4'this Witlf!JP-10 , ,the toJbe rev.eraecUsourubat
aeVes\hands. . - .. ·. ·. t ·to keep. ..
' · -J. ,·:.
_The Slf!2ple Point-Cf:!unt System
BBAT TB;B I)BALB&
We learned that the salmon had been winning regularlyfor
several months, but oo one knew the trqe el(tent his
Bnfer the Salmon .. winnings. ,.
Before we arrived, M had noticed a system t asked why he was called the. Salmon and was t9ld
.was having great success, playing e'!ery night and WUlDUll tliatit was because he was like a fish that swam up stream.
steadily. He and M . "But we'll get him in the end," a casino boss said. ''We Call
. The casino personnel nicknamed him the Salmon (pro- it a Ia larga [in the long run]," he said. "And we call it 'in
nounced Sal-moan, with the stress on the se<:ond syllable). the long run,' " I said. Salmon later told me that "Sabnop"
lnspired by the first of Beat .the D_ealer, he had was Puerto Rican slang for "jerk."
. begun to play about six months earlier, w1th a of The casino view that the Salmon was a jerk was
$200. I said in the book that this 81": the reinforced by the way he played sqme of his hands. At the
player a 99 per cent chance .to go on wmmng Jndefinitely. end of the deck, apparent recklessness or disgust, he
There was only a I per cent chance that an extreme run . would sometimes hit a blackjack again and again until it
of bad luck would ever wipe out the stake plus acc.umulated busted. Likewise with a pair of Teris or a pair 9f.Aees·
wimWlgs. Other times he would stand on a pair of deuces! Surely this
. . The Saltnon took me at my woro to was madness, the casino personnel would. say to again
J1C found that the Tea-cQWlt was too labonons, so he dis- and again. . . . . · ··
covered for himself the simple point count plus refinement& I coul(i only smile and that it certainly was difficult
··When we met him, his original $200 to $20,000. (for them, that is) to understand how playing oould
· The Salmon put on a splendid and effecti_ve show. He lead to anything but disaster. I pointed out that my
would come into a casino, spot an emp!J ind purchase Strategy, the Fives strategy, and the Tens strategy, all forbid ·
leveral-thousand dollars' worth of chips. which he such plays. Was Salmon mad? Far from it.
in several great irregular. columns, up to a foot or two 1D 'fhe Salmon was· using "end play," as. described in the
-< height. Th6 colu!Jlng like suc:; . first edition (see also Chapter 8). Let's start with an
kings in scattered his great columns of c ps ple. The Puerto Rican casinos dealt two decks the way
an over the layout,_like pieces Jn a game. he always to the end. The last card of the two decks was pulled back,
lllanaged to scatter them so .that they effectively .bloclced unpllfyed, however. Suppose now that the simple point
anyone else from playing. While he played, the Salmon kept . count is, say, -8 and there are (roughly) about l6
:up a disarming and amusing line of patter with the nearby left to be played. Recall now that the has blcicked
the table with great of chips. s_"mce there- are
I arrived; recent copies of Life &eVen places, he can play from one toseven baruis on each
azine [491tdached Puerto Rico. In them was a deal. He now takes, say, four hands bets $i on each
story, with picture$. about me and Beat the· Detiler•. hand (remember, the deck is btid). He and the dealer be-
book had alSo moved onto the NfiV York Times _non-,fiction tween 1,hCm get ten carets on, the deal: .Suppose that the·
was.
best-seller list. I theJ1 by the casmo petson· Sa:Imon's" first hand is (IO,IO), his second hand is (A,IO)
aeL After the casinoJ shUt down at 4 A.M.. M, N, nc:l .a:ild rest are 5D1all cards, He hits the (zo,IC)) until
· a snack with some Of the people from one of the .caamos. •
- _-----:. "
84
, ..
. .BEAT TRE ·'!ire· Poilu-Count <System ·
it busts. Then be does the same with· the (A,IO) if pos- laugh, "So you count the amigo. Why (ha,. ba), 'Iii
sible. Then· he draws to the small-card hands, witho1Jl bet you even know what I ve got under here." A couple of
busting any of them. When the deck is exhausted, the other dealers grinned. So I said, "Why, you have. an
used cards are reshuffled. The (IO,IO) and (A,IO) cards Eight under there/' The dealer laughingly summoned sev-
are in this reshuffled group. The table is covered with small eral of the other dealers and the pit boss. He explained
cards wliich are not. that the Americano "expert" said he
The next deal comes from a shoe which is pOor in low bad an Eight m the hole. A babble of uncomplimentary
cards. The Salmon bets $50 per hand and the advantage. remarks in Spanish passed back and forth.
On the average he will have_ the advantage dqwn to the end I tired and about ready for a break. I had made
of the two decks. At that. time end play is again used to an oce;as!onal counting error over the last hour.• There was
exert control over the composition of the next shoe. a chance I would be wrong for me if I was, prob-
The Salmon deliberately lost some $1 bets so he could Then the dealer turned over his hole card. It was an.
Win some $50 bets. And the operators decided that he was Eight. An.d the babble in Spanish raged anew.
a jerk. , . We played on for five nights.. During this time our
. . We promptly adopted the Salmon's tactics. And for c.ap1tal rather violently, considering the small bet
sevetal evenings the casinos would see one, two, and some- SIZe: At we were a couple of thousand .dollat$
times _three master players march up to the empty tables behind. nus made us redouble our playing efforts. DUring
just after opening time. The "masters" would cover the these days I was playing at my peak. I would
tables with great irregular towers of chips and then begin to
Aces, pomts, and remaming cards, or Aces, Tens, and uon-
play one to seven hands at a time. The Puerto Rican dealers
. and not just three but four or five
were very fast (on the average much faster than the Las
tities. I was making perhaps one or two counting error$ an
· Vegas dealers, in my opinion). Yet each of us could play
evening! Yet I was having difficulty pulling abead. ·
still faster than the fastest dealer while we were supposedly
counting myriad computing at a great I looked cheating and found -only one incident. M
and I we-,e playmg at the same table in one of the crowded
rate. ·
At the end of a shoe one evening, I had been losing clubs (not La Concha). Our dealer seemed extraordi-
·for an hour or so. My dealer had a ten up. I had -seven hands clumsy. Two cards kept trying to come through the
with various totals. I was using the variation of the point sht m the side of the dealing box. \fhey would jam and he
count where 2,3,4.5.6,7 are +1, 8 is o, and 9,10,A are -I, would fumble around. We finally got tired of this and
when they fall. The deck had run out on the deal, and the moved to another table. Then that box was moved to our
point count was zero. Therefore the one unseen card, which table! w_e moved and the box.moved again! Masked
was the dealer's hole card, was a "zero." So the dealer had tO examme the deahng box, and we summoned the govern-
an Eight in the hole for a total of 18. · ment man. Nothing appeared to be wrong.
. . · As the play of the hands developed after the reshuffle, · But we knew shoes that deal seconds have been'tnade.
I bad to hit several totals of hard 17. They all busted. • •It is an important and interesting fact that errors in card count•
The dealer looked up scornfully, saying to me with a aug; .if !,heY are .i.e., have_ no intrinsic "patterns" or "ten-
cleDcies; do eotnparativcly little harm to a system player!. ·
'
36 BE. AT. THE 1)_1) A .''The· Simple Point-Count System
They were commonly used, for _example, in faro as 'casinos•. It was ·so different from his in Las
"'i in the old West. A clever mechanism was concealed m
).; Vegas and the other Nevada gambling meccas. He asked N
. thin sf<;le panels. If this were such a shoe, one of the to count Aces for him with chips. This worked fine. NeXt
. panels might be hollowed out. There was one long stde it was Tens and Aces. This worked too. F'mally, N would
panel and two shorter end panels. We tapped both end take turns fully relieving us of our counting chores
with a chip. They sounded the same. Then we tapped ing With the chips. Surpri$gly, what N was doing appeared
the longer panel. It gave a higher tone. By the la'Ys of to pass unnoticed.
physics the tone should have been lowe:. We other This.made me realize that it wufeasible to count all
ide:ntic_al dealing boxes. Thetr side panels the cards so that, every so often, we could know the deaier'8
. gave out the expected lower tone. ConclusiOn: we would precise bole card. The profits could be spectacular. We
avoid this club from now on. practiced with a miniature tally sheet in our rooms the next
·. · Why didn't we ask that this box be confiscated and the afternoon. My idea was that the player could be assisted by
·matter be investigated? Mainly because we to a helper who counted all the cards with a tally sheet. We
cpmmunicate with this government man. He dtdn t seem to Would start at the beginning of two fresh decks by
understand. English and he dicfn't seem to know we · &even hands at $1 each and playing them out with the basic
were driving at. Of course, any effective action would have strategy. This would be repeated, to use up most of the . ,
to be initiated there, on the spot, wjth the evidence at hand. two decks quickly. Now, 102 cards are actually played out
Once it disappeared, so did the chance of makin& an effec- of the 104 cards in two decks, since the top one is burned
tive complaint. · . and the bottom one is pulled back. About three cards are
· We ended our stay with a joint win ()f a li.ttle under used per hand. So in a round of 5even bands plus the
$2,000, which barely covered the cost of a vaca- dealer's, about 24 cards are used. In three such rounds.
tion for four. This would correspond to a wm of almost about 72 cards are used, leaving about 30. .
$20 ooo in Nevada with its higher betting limits. :aut we Suppose that this in fact happens in an .actual game.
have won much more. Playing conditions were ideal, We would next take some number of bands that guarantee.
'and dealing down to the last card enabled us to end that the box will run out in the following round. Bufit
play very strongly. Also, in the same amount of time the must run out after the dealer gets his hole card so we can
Salmon piled up $7 ,ooo with play that was not as then tell from our count what that hole card is.
as ours. We found very little difference between our wm- We take enough hands so there will be 16 or a little
nings when we used a point count and when we used a Ten fewer cards left after the round. The reason for- the un- .
. count. certainty ·at this stage is ·that we can't control in advance
how many cards, if any, the dealer will draw. In this case,
An Interesting Idea for End Play five player hands plus two cards drawn or six player hands
· Finally, the day before we left, 1 realized how we could ·plus no cards drawn would Use up 12 cards. Since the
make a fortune in Puerto Rico as long as they dealt down dealer's hand uses up 2 more cards of the original this
to the end of the deck. My idea had begun to form a couple WOUld leave 16 cards less the number the dealer dra-ws to
of evenings earlier. M was very impressed with the- courte- his }tote card. - .
ous. friendly, relaxed atmosphere in the Puerto Rican SupJ>9SC it ·turns out that he draws two cards. Then
- - - - ----
·88 B E AT· .·T H E I) B·A ll Simple Point-Count System
there will be fourteen cards left to play on the final deaf of ' est, Braun found that if the dealer also won all ties in sueh
the box (plus one card that will not be played). We now a game, the player would still have an edge of 2.1 per cent.
take six hands and bet the maximum of Sso on each of We omit the somewhat different player strategy for this
them. The fourteen cards are just enough to deal out aU our situ!Uion.)
hole cards and the dealer's two cards. are face up,
we can see all of them, as well as the dealer's up card.
Value of Knowing the Dealer's Hole Card
We now tcy to hit the first hand, no matter what its value. We could have averaged $25 ($5.0 per hand x 5 hands
The dealer pulls. out the last card, notices that it is the last :X to%) or so per box by using the complete count of all
card, and refuses to give it to us. Once we have seen and the cards to determine the dealer's hole card. We played
eounted this card, the only card left unseen is the dealer's at least six boxes an hour. At six hours per evening (rest
hole card, and we now know from our count what that ·two) this would have been $900 per evening-a "living
card is. wage"! But we were unable to become proficient enouoh
c '
After the dealer shuftles the used cards, we get on with as. a. to get started \Jefore we .left And the Puerto
playing out our six hands. He asks us whether we still want . rules were changed soon . afterwards, as a result of
to draw to our first hand. (If the casino rule is that we had :the Salmon's exploits, so we never. had the opportunity to
to draw to this hand because we had requested a card take advantage of the method. •
. before the shuffle, we would have countered by only betting . In an ordinary game the player sometimes. finds out
$1 on this hand.) .what the dealei"'s hole card is. The first time this bappened
to me was at one of the big strip hotels in Las Vegas. One
l'lllying Strategy When the Dealer's Holl CtUd Is Knou'll ·man was playing alone at a $5-minimum · table. He was
We play this hand and the five others with a new ' bettin.g $200. to $500 on each hand and winning :rapidly.
..basic" strategy. The term "basic" means again that (for he and the dealer seemed to be getting along
simplicity only) we are not considering information about JUS! I sat down and bet $25 to $Ioo, figuring that my
any cards other than the dealer's two cards. and the hole actlvlttes would go unnoticed alongside his bigoer bets..
cards of the hand being played. I soon noticed that when the dealer had 1;
or more, ·
Instead of a separate playing strategy for each dealer's the player always hit hands of 16 or less. Once when the
up card, we now have a separate strategy for each pair of dealer had a 10 up and a 6in the hole, the player stood on.
dealer's cards. There are fifty-five such pairs. The strategies 12! Then I noticed· that ·the dealer was tipping off the
were calculated in detail by Julian Braun and forwarded to , as to whether he had a "stiff" (I 2- I 6) or a probable .
me some months before the Puerto Rican trip. The results t1,fl (4-6 ), by looking unnecessarily long at his hand. If .
are given in Table 6.1. e had a pat hand (17"'21) or a probable good hand (7-11
Note that the strategies are yery much alike against • There was little chance in any case that I penonaUy could have
dealer's cards of the same hard total. r_nuch in Puerto Rico. The intense public interest and
bc:ity which me at .the time made the casinos acutely
Braun calculated that the player's advantage in a one- ware of my activities•. As soon as my winnings became impressive the
deck game·with typical rules, when he knows the deaier's . have been changed. The Salmon's success deperide4 tbe
that he .concealed the extent of his winnings for a tong time.
hole card, is 9·9 per cent. (Just as a matter of general inter- heil be "opened up." the CI!Sinos diil change the rules, as we shall see.
·BEAT • t ll 8 D
8
A L F. R · .· The S.i(tlple Polnt:Count System 91
90
.·, up .card is a. Ten, the reverse Mw they wonder if
. they an ••If the bole card is large. they can see this·
O.Oie • • .very. If •t IS small, they must bend the bole card up
qutte a lot before deciding it is not an Ace. Mr. F ($ee
. Chapter 12) gave me this tip in gratitude, after I bad won
· $1,600 by standard for him and Mr. X at the Las
<:Iub in a couple of hours one evening. Mr•. F and
. hts cromeS call this dealer giveaway the "telL"
,.
94 BEAT THi DEALEtl
out!his revised edition); Richard-E. Sprague, directot;of · the COJD.pletepoint«JUnt is a valuable alternate 8tra'-
eomputer systems, Touche, Ross, Bailey and Smart (author eg and should also be learned, if possible. .,
of Electronic Business Systems); William B. Walden, then
of tho Los Alamos Scientific Laboratory and now dii·ector
the
of the Computing Center at the University of Omaha (he _In the complete point cOunt, ·we simply perfect the
and 1 jointly developed a system for Nevada baccarat, and of the simple point count. The first sfep is t9
otlr winnings forced the casinos to remove certain formerly have an exact ·count, rather than a rough idea, of the
profitable bets from the layout); and Allan N. Wilson numb.er of unplayed cards•. So we will need to
(author of The Casino Gamblers Guide, a recent coverage two numbers, total points, as before, and also unseen
of the principal casino games; readers of this book will be ards. The count of total unseen cards is quite simple. For
interested in comparing Wilson's lengthy coverage of black- one deck, start your count at·sz. Each time you see one of
:-
jack). Theoretical remarks were made by Robert E. Ka- the cards used in play, .subtract I from the current totaL
.,i laba, ·a mathematician from the RAND Corporation and If a card is played and you do not see it for one reason or
an expert on gambling systems like the Kelly system (.see .another, do not change your total of unseen cards. Adjust
P· :23). ' the total if you see the burned card or if the dealer flashes
I was the moderator of this panel session. the bottom card.
· An enthusiastic Dubner made great claims for the When we were only. counting total· points, the cardS
complete point-count method. His calculations supported could be counted any time during or after the play of the
his claims. And his play in the casinos (for low stakes)" hand. The only important thing was to have the total pomt
during the computer conference was very successful. The count available in time to decide how much to bet ·on the
interest of the other experts was aroused. Braun then made . next deal. You could even wait until a band was over and
detailed calculations. (His computer techniques were based then count the cards all at once. We can still do this whca
on the methods developed and used to work out the Ten- we are counting both total unseen cards and total points,
count strategy fof the first edition.) Although these showed provided we use the information merely to arrive at the
that there were some inaccuracies in the details of Dub- proper bet size. We still play our hands with the basic
ncr's results, Braun found that the complete point count strategy.
was a powerful and effective winning blackjack strategy. When we want to use our card-count information, to
Exactly how much ·better or worse it is than- the Ten- vary the strateg for playing the ·hand&-to improve on the
count method is not known. But they are of basic can still count this way. But it will be
power. In an era of casino countermeasures; tightening still better to adjust the count as soon as we see a card,
rilles. md dealers who are finally learning to count cards, wWiout waiting. This method of counting is called tht
the complete point count .is a wekome new weapon. The count." It is something b'ke a full-court press in
beginner should probably read through to the TeD-CO\J.Dt basketball: ·your count totals are ready. You don't
chapter and then choose either tho complete point count Of Jet except when the cards are completely reshuffied, or
the as the first powerful winning strategy to be the change, br you change games.
For those who are already proficient in the Ten the running·count is more tiring. If counting
r-c-_c··.
f "96 ·The' Complete Point-Count System iyr
,j: is -easy for you, use it; it is best. If co1.i1lting iS bard .for that tlie game is being dealt from four decks
you, don't worry. Figure out the easiest w;q. to count and and that the only cards left are Fours or smaller. Then tho
Use that. Your results will be almost as good. Perhaps they player should draw on hard 17, no matter what dealer's
will even be better because you will be less likely to make up card is.. This is in sharp contrast to the basic·
mistakes. which recommends standing on hard 12 against an up card
Here is how we use the new count to decide on the of 4, 5;or 6.
bet·size. Divide the point total by the total of unseen cards.
For example, in one-deck game, if 5.5,3.8 fell, the point
total would be +3, 48 cards remain (unseen), so we get
Advantace
3/48 or about o.o6. I find that the easiest thing to do is to 15i
estimate the nearest per cent. In this case· it would be 6
(per cent), because to change to per cent means to multiply
1091.
. by 100. I call this final number the high-low index.
If the same cards had been seen from two complete
shuffled decks, we would have +3 points and 104-4 100 =
· unseen cards and a high-low index of 3· If there were 4
decks to start with and A, 10, 10, 9, 8, 8, 10, A; A fell, the
high-low index would be -6/199 or -3 (per cent). .
I
L The Bets
I Bet 1 unit for a high-low index: of 2 or less. For a
d To use Table. 7.1, you look in the square correspond-
I high-low index of 4, bet 2 units. In_ general, bet half the . ing to the dealer's up card and your hard total. If it ·says
!
index in favorable situations; index 6, bet 3; index 8, bet 4; ..draw" or ..-stand," things are easy. Suppose instead that
index 10 (or more!) bets. For index values between these, you find an index number. Then you stand if your index is
you can shade your bets up or down, at yolir pleasure. For . - greater than the one in the table. But if your index is less
example. if index is 5, you can make the bet correspond- · ·than or the same as the one in the square, you draw.
ing to an index el :either 4 or 6, that is, either 2 or 3 For. example, suppose the dealer shows a Ten and
s
The reason f91' llettin'g no more than units, even when the you have hard 13. The table'says d'raw, no matter what your
index is over 10, is simply that the casinos get too excited index. Now suppose you get a Three. You now have hard
if you do. - 16. If your index is or less, draw. If it is more than 02,
stand. (Warning: Minus indexes are less than plus indexes.
Drawing and Standing Using < for ':'Jess than," we have in general • • • < -G3
· The basic strategy is the best way to play against ·a · < -oo <...;.or < oo < 01 < oo ••• and·so on. So a large
. complete deck. But if some cards are missing and we know . index with tl minus is less than a small index with tl minus.
something about them, we usually can HnJ»(OVe on tlte basiC · 1his may be news to readers who are not used to
strategy. As a simple (and unrealistic) example, suppose aumbers.)
The Complete Polnt.;cozmt System 99
Table 7.2 gives the drawing and standing strategy for
soft hands. It is read in the same way. as Table 7.I. Notice
that the soft strategy is the same as .in the basic strategy
except for three
J. With soft 17 against 7,. and an index greater that}
29, stand (the basic strategy says draw). ,
c7 ll'!j 2. With soft IS against 10, and an- index greater thaD
.• !!:
-
"'
3· With soft I 8 against an Ace, and an index of -o6
or less, draw (the basic strategy· says stand) •
The first two exceptions are quite rare in actual play
J· ...
- and may be neglected until you become an expert.
l
,j J:. - f4J"' -o6 is fairly close to oo, we can simplify the third eX-
ception by saying: bit soft I 8 against an Ace if the deck is
. . - I
r717 ' moderately unfavorable. So the results of Table 7.2 can be
simplified to: For drawing and standing with soft hands,
II
!a
co play the basic strategy with just one exception. With soft
= 18 agafdst an Ace, hit when the deck is moderately un-
1J
- favorable. ·
I
.
1
I
Doubling Down
The doubling-down strategy for hard hands appears
in· Table 7·3· Note that doubling down with a total of hard
1-o;..,.J;;;.:.L...L.J A 5 is sometimes best play! Such facts were undreamed of
until only recently. Notice that the more favorable the deck,
the more likely- we are to double down. Double down if
,your index is larger· than the table entry. Do not double
if your index is less than the table.
Table 7.4, which gives the strategy for soft doubling.
is read in a similar Once again, thtt more favorable the
deck, the more frequenJly we double down on Soft totals
(and the greater the profits).
Po.ir Splitting
Table 7·5 gives the 54ategy for pair splitting with the
high-low index. ,
RD1204 13664
ThB Complete ftJW-Coant System 101.
Insurance
;1
If the .index is greater than o8, insurance sh.ould be
. 3
taken. Otherwise it. should not be taken. A more detailed
discussion of insurance'will be found on pages 106-1: I. .-
00 ;t ":"!
In
I
j
Advantage and Frequency of Favorable Situations
Figure 7.1 illustrates bow the player's --
l":go,o
N '"<oi ""0"'
.....
"'0"'
- ...
.-:Vl"'!O j
J.
·f1s -. .
.changes as the index changes. Notice the gain insurance S"'"'=
• N
produces. It is also interesting that the player gains more :.i 1
when the index is positive he loses when it iS! negative.
This is because the player ean vary his strategy. Therefore
.•2 .5
;; 01
.§.g
.., ..
.... a\
.,..o.,.
f'ol ..... "l .........
-t
C! ""':
l'f.'OI; _,..f'ol
..... --
'01; ....
be can to some extent reduce the disadvantage he gets from .!!
"'!oN
.. r-: coi\ISV.CI\1"10\
poor decks. He can also increase the advantage he gets from
good decks. ·
::! ..
() ::>
,. 0 .g
11_ .. ..,. "'0"'
o .. - "l oq .ttl "' <'1 "! oq "'!
Cl\.,...,...,...,.oo,..,...., lt
The gives the that if the index is _.>- Po ..,.C'IC'-.&N..,.C"'..,..,...
.;"'
negative enough. player regains the advajltage. This 0'0! -5 5
" ... e8
::; s:; M'i' .. o
-
t-o:! 8 ..... ..... \0\0t9''11101'00
bnptessic;m is correct but the are rare in play. a: .. -ig
=·
00\0C'I\Cf\lf\Ctf\ .........
. ..
'()£
..... <;;;
.,s,
"'
> 1-
..., I
""': "'o"'
'i .....
"'O"'
-
3J
]!...
fli
advantage, averaging something like so per cent, and de- !j=
I I T.. 'i sf
-
=.!!
pending on the· precise cards remaining.
Table 7.6 gives an idea of how often various values of ... i.s1 '1'"'o"'
.. 1 . e: .-:Vl<'\0
..
., t•
"'. ..."' '2....
the index, and various advantages, arise in actual play. "' .,.s
....r-:I t-:ffl
TABLE 8.1 Ptayer Advimtage In the Tin-Cbu'itt to ·seconds to ;.tum over the cards whether .1
Sttategy. · count them or not. For th98e who want to push this exercise
Normal to the limit,. there is a way to break this twenty-five-second
approximate /
barrier. Remove a few unknown cards and spread the reo
advantage maining cards face up in a row, with enough of each card
Others/Tens (in per cent)
showing so that it may easily be identified. Then by
J.OO -2.0 .. reading fr.om left to right or from right toJeft. You should
2..25 +0.1
2.00 1.0
· learn to be equally at ease reading in either direction. Your
1.15 . . 2.0 count should check against the unknown cards that WefO ;
1.63 3.0 removed.
1.50 4.0 ••
/
1.35
Shortly after I had practiced spreading the cards for
5.0
l.i5 • 6.0 rapid counting, there was an opportunity to use this skill•. I
1.16 7.0 was examining a certain casino to see if it cheated and
·1.08 8.0 began, ·:naturally, by watching the table_ where the
1.00 9.0
money was being risked. After the shuffie, 1t was the casmo s
practice to have the dealer place a joker face up on the
them and drop them face up onto a discard pile. For ex- oottom of the deck to separate the used cards from the
ample, I have just picked up the deck on my writiqg desk. unused ones. At the end of one deal the joker had vanished!
I count, "(36,16); ·3 of Spades (35,16); 5 of Clubs (34, The amazed players asked to examine the deck. The dealer
I.6); 3 of Hearts (33,I6); 4 of Diamonds (32,I6)-the spread it in the standard fashion and then scooped it up
ratio is now 2.00 and the hands. dealt now give the player ·again in about four seconds. Even with the rapid count I
·a I per cent advantage (Table 8.1); 3 of Diamonds (31, coUld only count the first 12 cards.
16); 6 of Spades (30,16); Queen of Diamonds (30,15), · .The players demanded a closer look at the deck. This
etc." A few cards from the end of the deck, stop and record. time the dealer gave them ten or fifteen seconds. When I
your count. Then see if the remaining cards agree with reached 38 cards (28,10), the dealer began to scoop them
your count of them. In the example above. when I stopped, up again slowly. I quickly counted the number of cards
my count was ( 2, I) and the last three cards were the deuce remaining, without regard for denomination. There were 20
of Clubs, the Nine of clubs, and the King of clubs, in agree- left: the deck had 58 cards! Of course, the dealer still had
ment with the count. not allowt(d the players enough time to examine the deek.
The first few times it may take you two minutes or They called for a new deck and requested that the pit boss
more to go through one deck without any mistakes. How- examine the old one. He counted the old deck off to one
ever, you should be able to drop your time, in six or eight side, holding it in such a way that no one else eould count
fifteen-minute practice sessions, to between twenty-five and ajon:g with him. · ·
fifty seconds. Fifty second& is more than adequate and · When he finished counting, an odd expression flickered
twenty-five seconds is excellent. I had trouble getting below across his face. Then, without offering a word of ex.plana-
twenty-five seconds until I found that it takes me twenty . tion to tht;· players about the recent puzzling events, he
•U)6 BRJ\T 'rHE -I)EAL'BJl Slnltegy ·BaS«l on Counting Tens 107
left.· the old deck with- him. The trusting playerscon- : ·bole cards- too) before' insuring.. You :have a1sO
ti,nued the game and -soon forgot the matter. The pit boss • seen the dealer's up card. All this can be taken into account,
had accurately judged their narvete. if you wish, before deciding whether to insure. ·
While you are increasing your counting speed with . We can either the player or the bouse ad-
this exercise, you should also practice maintaining a count vantage from the ·insurance bet wheMVer we know tho
while $0meone deals to you and you play the basic strategy. , number of Tens and non-Tens. We illust{ate this calculation ·
Have them deal slowly enough so that you can count easily. forthe.case in which bands are being. dealt from one com-
Play with chips and start with 200 units. Before each plete deck, a situation which represents the average bouse
use your count to estimate the ratio. Theq vary your bets : advantage. In this instance, the dealer's up card is an Ace.
according to the scheme given in Table 8.2. Since thv dealer's Aet; is visible, there are 51 possibilities
·; .Roughly speaking, whenever the ratio is between 2 and for his hole card (assuming at the moment, for simplicity,
that we do not use our )Cnowledge. of O_!Jr own two bole
:'l"ABLB 8.2. A Conservative Betting· Scheme for the Ten.Counl cards as well), 16 of which are Tens'. On the average,
Strategy. player wins twice the amount of his insuranCe wager 16
Ratio Bet (in units) times out of 51, or 314 per cent of the time. The bet is
above2.00 1 (minim11111) . lost 35 times out of 51. The average house edge· is 3SfSl '
2.00-1.75 2 - 2 16/51, which is 3/SI or 5·9 ·per cent.
1.75-1.65 4 If you wish to take into account your hole cards, thero .
bdow 1.65 s are to consider. If your hole cards are (Io,Io),
the house edge is 35/49 - 2 X 14/49, which is 7I 49 or
1.65, we-are betting about twice as much, in units, as OU!' 14.3 per cent. If they are (Io,x), where x represeilts a·nOn...
adva.ntage i$ in per cent. We level off below 1.65 at 5 'unit$ Ten, the house edge iS 34/49-2 x 15/49. which is 4/49' .
so the variations in our bet size will not unduly alarm the or 8.2 per cent. If you hold (X,X) the house edge is 33/49
casino. You do not need to perfonn division in your head - 2 XI6/49. which is only I/49. or 2.0 per cent.
to figure out the ratio exactly. Rough guesses, say to within Insurance was originally introduced by the casinos as
o. I or even 0.2, very satisfactory. just one more way of fleecing the player. It is ironic that a
bet providing such an average advantage for the can
Insurance be turned against the bouse. The trick, of course, is simply
There is one important change from. the standard strat• more of what we have been 9oing all along. The average
egy. that you should take into at once. ·Whenever hoUse adVantage is 5·9 per cent, but there are times when
the ratio is Jess than 2.00, take insurance if .the the advantage is in favor of the player. At these times we
(dealer's up card an Ace) presents itself. If the ratic;» is · insure and otherwise we do. not. For example, wlien the
2.00 or· more, do not insure. This is reasonable. If the deck. count before the deal is (1o,1o} the-player's avetage IJ!Ofit
is and the dealer ,sllows an lie is more likely on an insurance bet is 2 X I0/19 9/I'):. which is
usual to, have· tilackjack. You are allowed to check 11/19, a healthy 58 per cent of tim amount of the insurance.
y.our hole cardsc (and you. may have.been able to aee other . Once when I played in a large club in Reno. I nQtited
108 BEAT THE DEALER
that it had no insurance bet. Since one of the ·owners was fl
standing at my elbow (for I had begun to win rapidly and c::;j
they had rushed up to stop me), I asked why there was no
insurance. He said that because it hurt the players, it was
taken out for their benefit. As a .large'? bettor (large bettors
generally are humored and given little privileges), I asked
that I be allowed to insure, explaining that it gave me a jh
..... "'"' .,;.,;
. .., ...
..;...4..-i
j- .,"'"'...
feeling of security when I made large bets (when the count
was (IO,IO) for example!). My request was refused with· criui
ltl..;
end ·play (discussed later), the insurance rule, and card
counting, had taken at least $40,000 from this casino before N"l
"' ""'
.....
"'"l
msur.a_nce bet is wasteful: Suppose that you ate eounting ...... 19 10:
...
q<'i ........
!:
=•·
"!
Tens and non;.Tens, and that after you see your hole cards
..
·10
.·l'i.
and before you decide whether or not to take insurance. you !! ....
"'
find that aU Tens have been played. In this evenr the
dealer can_not have a natural. If you 'insure your natural, .
"!"
·.
I"'......:! "!
!i:
5
jf
J!
-
i!
!:i
e _.
ta.l!ll
is profitable and below which it is
is the ·same point we recommended above. When the ratio
It
Rate of Profit
By this time the reader should be wondering whether the
Ten-count strategy will win enough faster than the Five-
count strategy to justify the extra work involved in learning
. and playing it. Table 8.5 illustrates the rate at which the Ten-
count system wins. The ratios were calculated and recorded
by a computer for Ioo,ooo hands, and ihe results are
i typical of what in actual play.
t
II
j!.•
Table 8.5 is read as follows. If 25 cards are dealt off
the top of a well-shuffled pack (and counted by the player),
the player will find that a ratio of I .o or less will occur
-
'i
' ·only o.I per cent of the time. A ratio of I.7 or less, but -:"l
00
above 1.6, will not occur at all. A ratio of 1.8 or less, but
above 1.7, will occur 14.5 per cent of the. time. A ratio of -00
1.8 or less· will occur··24.0 per cent of the time. (This last 00
figure is obtained by adding all figures in the 25-card
column up to and including the ratio for 1.7 to 1.8, namely, _..,
o...:
O.I + 0.5 + 2.0 + 6.9 + 14.5'= 24.0.)
Note· from Table 8.5 that a player counting Tens has
an advantage of I per cent or more (i.e., a ratio of 2.0 or
less) about a of the time. It turns out that the advan·
tage ranges between I per cent in favor of the player and
in
I per cent favor of the house about a third of the time,
.. and· that the house has an advantage of I per cent or more "' 0 ..,.. N
-
.n \0 I""" co 0\ C f"! ff'!
tf"a ....,.
about a third of the time. c;;...:...:_:..,:_;..;..,.:....;_;_.:rtNNr-1
· When more than one player is at the table, the Tens
strategy loses somewhat in efficiency, but the decline is not 'tn 0 ..- N """ V "" \0 .r-- 0\ <:::! """': f"! "'!
Q...:..;_;....;...;.-...;....;..,....;NNC"o\N
nearly as sharp as it is in the Fives strategy.
Study has shown that a scheme for betting that gives
very good protection against ruin while also providing a
'
II8 B E A:'l' T'li E DEAL B1l A Winning- Strotegy Based on Counting Tent 119·
large yield is to risk a percentage -of your initial capital. We usc some extreme cases to illusttate how Al;es can. -
equal to your percentage advantage. For example, with -!feet your advantage. Suppose the unused cards consist
$:zoo and a 3 per cent advantage, bet $6; witlr a 10 per exclusively of Aces and Tens. (I have seen the last eight'
cent advantage, bet $2.o; with a I per cent advantage bet cards happen to be all Aces and Tens.) How much shoultl
$:z; with situations less favorable than I per cent, bet a you bet? If possible. bet one half of your capital; tBe,
minimum $1. other half for pair splitting or insurance. If the dealer has
In the test of this system which I described i_n Chapter , an Ace up, you can insure and prevent him from winning
s, modified proportional betting was used: I-unit minimum in case he has olackjack.
when my advantage was below I per cent, 2 units with a If you lost your insurance, the dealer must have a pair
l per cent advantage, 4 units with a 2 per cent advantage, of Aces and must bust when he draws; therefore you will
and so on, up to I o units with a s per cent advantage. · win your main bet. If he has a Ten up, he may have an Aco
Above S per cent all bets were leveled off at 10 units to · under and, consequently, have blackjack. A part Of tho
reduce the possibility of frightening the casino. This pre- time you, too, will hold blackjack and the game will be a
caution turned out to be insufficient in several of the casinos. stand-off. The rest of the time you will lose, but this is -
, In the present era, with the widespread successful use . dnly time you lose. If the dealer has no blackjack, he haS a
of our methods in the casinos, bets should be limited to Ten under also. Then with (A,Io) you win; with (Io,Io)
ratios of I to 5 or I to 3, or even kept constantt . you can tie or, if any Aces remain; you can split your Tens
, There is a variation on the proportional betting · with the chance of a net gain. With (A.A) you can split
schemes of the foregoing discussion that is mathematically · for a sure win if there are cards remaining. If the deck is
sl:lperior to them but involves. a little extra mental work. · exhausted, splitting (A,A) the dealer's (Io,Io) keeps-·
In it, the player bets an amount approximately propor- your average loss fairly small.
tiona! to his current capital. The amount bet should be The foregoing discussion is included to make it seem
l
!l.:.l
equal to the player's percentage advantage. For example, reasonable that w®n hands are dealt only from a collection ·
suppose a playeistarts with $200. In a IO per cent·situation of Aces and Tens, the player is greatly favored. A detailed
,f he bets $20. Suppose he later builds up to $300. He would mathematical analysis confirms this.
1: - n_cjw bet $30 in a to per cent situation. As you become comfortable with the Ten-count strat-
[l · It is not necessary to bet the precise amount called . egy, you can begin to keep tra,ck of Aces. When the c;leck
t! for in any of our betting schedules. The results do not vary has an excess of Aces, increase your bet somewhat over that·
significantly,. even Vtith considerable deviations from the which is called for in the straight Tens strategy. On the·
suggested amounts. other hand, bets should be reduced when the deck· has a
scarcity of Aces (is Ace-poor.)
· Including Aces in the Count · .You must be more careful than ever, when counting
Your results improve further if you adjust your bet Aces and to avoid letting the casino know that. you
size for an excess or shortage of Aces. When all the Aces · are keeping track of the cards. The story of Junior illustrateS _
are gone, subtract 4 per cent from your estimated advan-. what not to do. He was countmg both Tens and Aces and
tage. When the deck has twice as many Aces as normal,· . betting heavily. After. a while, he made a maximum (for
add -4 per cent to your es.ted advantage. ··. :him) bet of $200, since his count showed a. very favorable
l20 B BAT T lt E DB 'A'i:'l! ll ,.4. WiiJning Strategy Based on Counting Tens UI
· cards. A negatiye figure means the deck i$
sitUation. He was dealt a pair of Tens;; There was still orie
' pO<>r· and the player's advantage will be .reduced (perhaps
Ace unseen. The dealer bad a Ten showing. but did not
even eliminated altogether) by the negative correction.
have a natural. · .
It is difficult to make these additional calculations while
Junior bad seen the burned card and knew that it was
playing the Tens strategy. I recommend that the
not an Ace. Since there was only one unused card left
who is countina Aces as well as Tens merely "lean "In the
the pack, it had to be the remaining Ace. Furthermore, thts
direction" rather than make a precise calculation.
casino was at that time dealing the last card (the customai?'
practice now is to withhold the last card and to place It The Remarkable Gain /rom Proper End Play ·
with the used cards and shuffie). Now, placed in a situation A few years ago, a now legendary figure, sometimes
such as this, knowing you would get the last card, an. Ace, described as "the little dark-haired guy from Southern Cal·
if you requested it, what would you do? Draw? Spht the ifornia'' (we purposely avoid giving his name), approached
pair of Tens? - . . . a large and famous casino in Reno. The story goes that he
- Junior asked to double down on }Jts $200 bet. Ptty-: explained he would like to play for large stakes--the J:ouso
ingly the dealer attempted to explain to this "foolish free limit or more,- if possible-and that he wanted a pnvate
spender" that he must have wanted to split his Tens. They game without publicity because he had tax problems. He
argued until finally the pit boss was called over to settle the . · &et down carefully stipulated playing conditions that prob.-
confusion. Now both the dealer and the pit boss pleaded aoly did not deviate from the spirit of the game. As a
with him, in an attempt to "save him from himself." By bachelor "steadily earning five figures," he had accumulated
this time a. crowd. of as well as spectators had . appreciable capital and able, no doubt, _to convince the
gathered. Fmally, mfunated and exasperated long_.. casino that he had constderably more still. The house,.
haggle, Junior yelled, "Give me the g- d--d. · thinking it had its usual advantage, was probably more
card was dealt. It was Ace. The amazed ptt boss patd . than happy to accept these conditions: ..
the $400 and then escorted our to door. Of course - ·_Although I do not know the detatls of the proposttiott,
11
he was barred from further play m that casmo. · it is not hard to make a reasonable guess as to what they
r
The effect of Aces can be taken account. rather were. From what I have learned through the grapevine, it
precisely. The idea is to estimate the nchness · seems likely that what I call end play (to be described ·
of the deck and then to add a correction to the advantage below) was the main ingredient of this particular coup. If
that is computed. from the ratio of t? Tens. For the conditions for the game would be as follows.
example, suppose there are 26 cards rematrun?, all four casino's usual rules, as to drawing and standing, doubhng
Aces flmong them. The average number of Aces IS two. The down, splitting, and insurance, are to be in force. In addi-
average number can be computed from (26/52) Thus tion, from deal to deal, the player may vary at will both the
in this case the number is double the average so you mcrease number of hands he takes and the amounts he.bets. Further-
your estimated advantage by 4 per cent. The general for-. more; the casino will deal down to the last card before
,mula for the correction to your per cent edge, due Ace shuffling. At first sight, this set of conditions seems pretty
richness or Ace poorness, is: [I3A/N-I]X 4 where AtS:the" harmless. But before we see what happened at the casino
number of still unseen Aces and N is the total number of
-
122
BEAT ,"'f Jf:B D·B·A'&Jill· BaSed on CoUIIting Teill U3
in question, let us examine play under these C91lditions We now. return to the story of what happened. at tb.e
more closely. . · · . casino. The little dark-haired guy is said to have played for
Imagine, first, that seven cards. all Aces and Tens, re- several successive nights. The first njght he won. ten or
. main to be played. What happens if you decide to take fifteen thousand dollars. Then, on successive nights he lost
exactly three hand.s? Then when you pick up your three and won similar amounts. When the casino became ao-
. hands you find each one consists of either (A,A), (A,IO), customed to these. large surges and when it was clear tb.at
or (Io;Io). The dealer, however, receives only one Ace or they were primed to hang on even though they were 'Well
one Ten, and since the deck runs out, he must shuffle before behind, he began playing to win. Hour after hour the money
getting his next card. You now have thre_e powerful hands piled up. It is said that somewhere between $40,000 and
facing him, and besides, he must draw h1s next card from $86,ooo,the:casino "snapped" and called off the game.
a deck that is poor in Aces and Tens. Generally, all three latter figure is_supposed to be the authentic one, but there
of your bands win. The advantage is IO to. IOO varying reports, probably because there were only four
per cent in these situations. Money 1s won at a truly dizzy· witnesses to the game-the player and three casino people.
ing rate. . , . His idea of no publicity paid handsomely. During the next
, Here is an alternate variation. Suppose there are five two years, the little dark-haired guy sold his proposition to
cards left, mostly Aces and Tens, and that you decide to other Nevada casinos. He was finally barred throughout
take five hands. Then you get all five of the cards in this the state after he had won· more than $250,000•
. favored group, and the dealer gets none of them, for he Of course, since nearly every casino in Nevada now
runs out of cards and must shuffle dealing the first . . refuses to allow end play, the method is nearly dead. Many
card ·to himself. If you now get a Ten as your first card ·. casinos are so intimidated that they will not set up private
. this gives you a 15 to 20 per cent advantage; starting with games; But keep it in mind. It paid off in the Puerto Rican
an Ace. gives you a 35 to 40 per cent advantage. casinos for several alert readers of the first edition.
If it happens instead that the end of the deck is very
poor in Aces and Tens, this too is to your advantage.
Suppose there are twelve small cards left. Take five hands
and- place very small bets on each. All. twelve cards are
used up in dealing the hands, and since mostly small cards
are involved, some cards will be drawn, forcing a shuffle.
When the deck is shuffled, twelve small cards are -missing
and therefore the new cards will be dealt from a residue
whose ratio is 24/16 or 1.5. A few cards will be drawn,
but, although the ratio fluctuates in individual situationS,
on the average it will also be 1.5 at the end of the round.
Thus by taking five bands to keep the small cards on the
1
read that far yet. It took them two or three weeks to throw . c·option·ofsurrender. At any time, unless the dealer is 'Show-
in sponge and go to old .rules•. What was . big an Ace; the player ma'y ....surrender" his band, retaining
trouble? A sharp young JOUrnalist named Jude Wanniski · one ball of the anioUnt of his bet alld losing the other half.
explained it very clearly in a by-lined article in the Na- Braun estimates that with best play surrender gains· about
donal Observer: per cent for the player. This is more than offset by the
Overnight, play at the Las Vegas blackjack tables player's of about o.S. per cent of the restrictions
1fen off. In fact, play at all the gaming tables declined on dou61ing down.
as the ftow of tourists into the city diminished. Casino TABLa 9.2. Approxlrnllle E6m of Cmnmon Ruin YariDtiou
employees, whose income depends in large part on the tm Advantage Wilen tile Basic Strategy I• Used.
number of tips they receive, began screaming that the Player•• Joss or pia
new blackjack rules were a bane to the industry. Rules variations (in per cent)
First one casino, then another, quietly scuttled · forbid donbling down on
-o.S9
the new rules. By last week, Las Vegas gamblers threw bard II
-o.s6
in the towel. They admitted they'd rather have all their :::
0
! -o.l4
-o.oo
business back, even if it meant putting up with the liard s
system players. all soft totals -o.t4
all totals after pair splitting . -().13
allow doubling down on any three cards 0.19•
Rule$ Jlariations allow doubling.down on any number of cards 0.20•
fOil!' decb -o.$1
In fight of the attempted Nevada rules changes and ; two decks -o.JS
the considerable variations in blackjack as .played through· dealer draws to soft 17 -{).20
out the world, the reader should be prepared to estimate dealer draws only to soft 17 with Ar:t: up -o.23
dealer drawing to soft 17 Is op&ional -(0.23+)
the effect of any deviations from the typical rules of Chapter
further splitting of. pairs
2. You can do this by consultil)g Table 9.2. To the basic· all pairs, one cleck 0.053
st.rategy edge of 0.12 per cerit for the. player, add or sub- all pairs, two decks .08
tract the correction indicated by the table. for each .all pairs. four decks 0.11 (est.)
all psirl. except Aces. two decks .04
variation being used. The final result is the overall player all paq, one deck. and unlimited draw to split Aces .037
advantage (if positive) or casino advantage (if negative). all pairS. two decks, and unlimited draw to split Aces .06
At various points in the book we discussed tlie varia- and double on hard 11 only .OS
all pairs except Aces 0.024
tions in England, Puerto Rico, and Nevada. One rule, which · drawing any number of cards to split Ac:Cs 0.14
is apparently peculiar to the Far East, has not :been con- no splitting of Aces · -o.t6
sidered. It is called "surrender." DO splittiaJ of Aces aad DO doubling down on ioft 12 -o.l6
forbid pair splitting -1).46
• In the Far East, particularly in Macao (a Portuguese 2.32
two-to-One pay-off for blackjack
colony that is a short hydrofoil ride Hong Kong)· and Puerto Ricaa rules, one deck -o.71
Manila, the blackjack rules are like those of Chapter 2 ex- two decb -1.()4
cept that doubling down is permitted only with a two-card Surrender Manila) o.ts (est.)
total of u. But the player is offered the additional-strategy
..._ -
Dll '!#!tlllg tlr8 Cilsino Countermeasures
Camouflage ·. · impossible to get a reasonable game. As a last resort. I grew
a for the summer and got used to contact lenses. Then
. The casinos hav.e become painfully aware of tlie thou-.
fapent four days in Las Vegas, Reno, and Lake Tahoe. In
sands of players who do not lose money. Even. beginning I wore the full beard. My usual glasses wero
worse, they are infested with hundreds of good
by lenses and s\veep-around
players who carry off money. These good players, particu- After I had won for two days in Las Vegas, players w1th
larly, have a problem. When they become known to the
casinos, they find shuffie up, or the dealer hiding
beards began to receive most unfriendly treatment. Twa
COI.Jlpanions and I went on to Reno and Lake Tahoe. We
Sometimes they are barred (asked to leave the casino). Or
walked into a crowded casino on the north shore of Lake
they run into heavy cheating (sometimes undisguised!).
'fahoe for gangland connections). T4ere were no
Clearly, if you want to be left alone to play a good
sea,ts at the blackjack tables. Then a boss looked up
game of blackjack, you must disguise your First, do
.,aw the bearded apparition. His jaw dropped. He called 111_
not start at the beginning of every fresh deck With a small
bet. With one-deck games and typical rules (so I have a
a dealer and opened up a table. I sat down. Two toughs
trotted up and plopped down on either side of .
..slight edge off the top), I get best results by betting large
My companions (I NEVER travel alone m
off the top of the deck almost half the time. Of course, if
thought I was about to be hurled from the casino••
you glimpSe a burned or bottom card, you can choose these
. The two toughs, the dealer, and I _played on 1n com·
times more effectively. Dealers think, "If he's going to bet ,
plete silence for ten minutes or so. When I was absolutely
big off the top of the deck, shuffie up is a waste of time.",
sure the dealer was a cheat, I walked away. The two toughs
· In casinos with two or more dealers or less favorable
immediately trotted off. The dealer closed the table and_
rules, you ought to bet big off the top much less
went off to wait for the next problem. A mmute later, an
The. size of your bets is also important. I have played
was. as before. The throngs of happy, fun-loving tourists
against dealers who thought it was natural to bet a $5 chip
went on with their merrymaking. Not one of them had been
or a $25 chip but not natural to carefully bet$_?, $10, $15,,
the least bit aware of the little drama that had taken place
$20, or $25, depending on the deal. So I bet $5 except when
before them.
things were moderately good. Then I bet $25. In It looked as if bearded players were through. But it
Rico I bet $1 while waiting and $50 in all favorable situa-
had taken me four weeks to grow the beard and I was
tions, since nothing bothered them! You mtist learn what _is
determined to use it one more time. After further adventures
best in your situation. A ratio of 1 to 5 or even I to 3 m we-arrived in Reno.
bet sizes might be a good beginning while you the
At about 3 A.M. I began to play at a club in downtown
sitU;&tion. A ratio of 1 to 2 is acceptable. Against: one deck
Reno (about 50 or 6o miles from the scene in Tahoe). The
and typical rules, a ratio of I to I is acceptable (all bets the
club was well known for its fair rules and for dealing down.
same!) if you sit in fifth or sixth seat at a full table and can
to the last card. I always collect a few hundred dollars from
see most of the cards before your tumr
this club whenever I am in Reno. whatever befalls me else-
where. This club doesn't seem to be "in" with the other
As a result of the intense publicity and the wide In particular, I thoJJght they would not have heard
distribution of my picture, I have lately found it ·nearly in of the bearded threat.
BEAT TRB th6 .Cflsbro CountermetlSIIIW • 135
..
hiiii 8Jonel ' · · · '· ·. · Is a gam.ng machine in the sfclte of:
. Both the cheat and I had been carefuUy scrutinized bJ
the same. that had studied me the previous Dight. '"AUTOMATIC BLACKJACK" is electronically oper- ·
· one recognized me. But after an hour, and another $300, oted us1ng a fuU simulated fifty-two-card deck-
. their patience wore thin. As on the night before, a_!Jtomatically shuffled and ·dealt. Play is initiated
dealer eame in. I left. . upon the deposit of a coin, or coins, in any or all
Disguises do work. They are a lot of trouble, but they denominations of quarters, halves or silv.er dol.Iars
can be fun, too. ••• to a limitation of five coins of each denomtnation.
I'M Automatic Blackjack Mochlnu The sequence of the game is in accord with all stand·
One of the most interesting casino countermeasures is ard 118LACKJACK" or 1121" games.
the recent introduction of automatic blackjack
machines to replace the dealers. The machines have been
The player has the option of "hitting or stailding"
•or are being tried at several casinos. The text of an
adver- on the hand and score dealt. All SCORES ARE
tisement on pages 137-8 gives the details. NUMERICALLY INDICATED IMMEDIAmY.
Let's use our. to analyze the form of automatic: The "dealer'' will continue to draw cards autOmati-
bJaC?kjack presented in ·the ad. . cally until. it has a score of 17 or more-at this tim(.
. Notice iirst that the machine deals a one-deck game the score of the player is compared to the "deOlet"'
and reshuftles after every deaL This goes a long way toward and payoff is automatically made CICQ)rding to the
aegating the gains from card counting. Our fiist impulse is
·.to sit in the last seat and use we see to get an score and the amount of the beJ' made•. If the player
edge (as explained on pages 124-126). But there are only a "BLACKJACK" he receives double his ori-
four IC&ts. So the advantage gained will be considerably ginal bet of the usual one and a half payoff..
less. probably about 0.33 to o.s per· cent. "AUTOMATIC BLACKJACK" is fully approved by the
. The next thing to notice is how the rules differ from Nevada Gaming Commission. All card dealing is
our typical rules. First, doubling down is restricted to hard ab$olutely uncontrolled and based upon chance.
totals of 10 or n. Secondly, pair splitting is not allowed.
these restrictions on the player increase the house
Any player, after receiving two or more cards show-
·edge: By Table 9.1, the lOSS due to DO pair splitting is. 0-46 per
.cent, no doubting on hard 9• hard 8, and the soft totals, ing a score of 10 or 11 may elect to "DOUBLE
+
costso.14 + o.oo 1.1401'o.a8percent, and there is ao.zo DOWN." Simply press the yellow flashing light but-
ton, increase your bet in the same denomination up
.per cent loss because the deal4r hits soft 17. Thus the usual
basic strategy player advantage of 0.1 J per cent seems to be to double your original bet, press the ·"HI'P" buHon,
+
reduced by 0-46 o;z8 + o.zo or 0.94 per cent, for a ·net •and you will receive one card only to complete your
casino edge of o.Sr per cent. hand.
111! AT T11 B b B A"L lit
Notice also that a player sitting in the fourth seal-would
ordinarily have an· occasional profitable insurance bet, pro-
' vided he knew the hole cards of at least one of the other ·
. three people at the (The player must see at least five
cards of a complete deck before there is a possibility of a · .
ratio below 2.00 3Dd a profitable insurance bet. Two play-
. ers' hole cards and the dealer's up card are sufficient.) But
this. little advantage does not apply here, for insurance is
• lnsert coins on 11MAKE BET.11 aot offered.
• ''HIT or STAND'' when buttons light. (Automatic . There is one more rules change. If the player
· and the dealer does not (the ad doesn't say this
stand after 10 second period).
but presumably it means it) he wins twice his original bet
• Deafer stands an 17 or over (must hit soft 17);. · instead of the usual one and a half it. Cleatly this
helps the player. How much? The chance (in a one-deck
·· • Aces count eleven or one. game) that a specified player will get blackjack tmd the
• "BLACKJACK'' pays double, "PUSH" pays money dealer willoot is 4.649 per cent. But the player now :wias
' back. an extra so per cent each time this happens. So the •
, gain to the player, due to this rule, is SO% X 4-649%, qt
Flashing light indicates 10 or 11-press button and 2.32 per cent.· So the player's gain with the- basic atrate&Y.
immediately increase your bet, one card only will · is increased per cent to+ 1. 51 per cent.
be dealt to your hand. This is a tidy rate of profit for each and every hand. So
a basic-strategy player should make a steady profit. One
• score supersedes card display. 0
drawback is the fact that the machine will accept bets only
0
• All coins rejected when game is in progress. up to a total of $8.7s per hand. But at 100 hands per
hour one should expect an average profit of $8.7S X IOO·X
•·s•% or over $13 per,hour!
The ad reproduced here. was picked up in Reno and
in Lake Tahoe. Recent information from Las Vegas is
NEVADA .s
the machines there all pay I to I for blackjack. Further.
this is rounded off to the nearest quarter, against the player.
ELECTRONICS For example, a 25¢. bet reCeives only 2S; for a natural,
INC. hno, Nevada not ;._But a so; bet·receives 7S¢ for-a natural. Cle8rly
- the player should.only bet in multiples of so; against suCh
a machine. ENen so, the edge is now an uufavorable o.81
per cent.
Warning: MachUles ·wear out or becOme defective.
Also, an unscrupulous peison. could set an automatic black•
140 · 11 E AT T BE J) E ALB Jl·
Jack machine to cheat. Before 1 would play such a machine,
I would tally 1000 or so dealt cards to see if appropriate
proportions of each type of card were being dealt. I would
further keep track of the gain that a pla!cr
experiences. in xooo hands or so. You are better off domg
. this by watching than playing.
The Paper Rouie Technique
How to Spot Cheating
The questions I have been asked most often is, ..Can a
player using your system still win in Nevada, after all the
publicity and reader successes?" and "What is the best way
tO do this?" Y cs, you can go on winning in Nevada.
is a technique which is very effective. Before you begm a
session of play, set aside from your stake an equal
to about 5 large bets-perhaps 20 or 25 units. Play untn
you either lose this wount or win this amount. Do not Blackjack dealers in casinos are often fantastically skiltM
show the 20 or 25 units at once, but instead buy chips with cards. Before I became seriously interested in black·
from it as .required. If you play for an hour, stop anyhow. jack, I and everyone I knew ·believed that although dealCta
/ .The point is this. If you play no more than an hour, you could cheat if they so desired, they did not cheat. The well-
are less likely .to attract attention or be remembered. If _pubUcized is- that the casinos enjoy a natural
you lose no more than 20 or 25 units in a session, no one advantage in the game and wU1 win anyhow. Why should a
·cheating dealer can ruin you. If you win no more than casino risk possible exposure and the resliltant bad pub-
20 or 25 units, you are less likely to be acted against'as .a Deity, loss ot customers, and perhaps even loss of their
po,ssjble threat because of your just a gaming license? why would a.crooked dealer
little lucky this time but we'll get hlm next t1me. who works for an honest casino risk losing his job in order
Remember your dealers. Return to the dealers you to line his pockets?
do well against. Avoid the dealers you lose 20 or 25 units
t9. This way you never get cheated .twice by the same
We might answer this with another quesdon: "lsn'
corruption in political life and in the busf..
dealet, You may lose legitimately and then avoid an honest ness world? And isn't it usually for the same stakes (money)
dealer. This can't be helped. . and with comparable risks (loss of position or of
The method is oversimplified to Ulustrate principles. to operate, bad publicity, etc.)? Why then should legalized
Make appropriate modifications for your situation. After gambling be JllOre immune from dishonesty than 'Jegalizecr
asession, you should go to another casino. When you are business?" ' ·
.using the method, you stroll from casino to casino, collec- In recent years it has become public
ting money, much as a newsboy for a paper route goes from .141.
fo door.
-ent BEAT TBR,
groups (such as the.
Nostra) are behirid a number of the casmos,
of the largest ones. Pulitzer-prize-winning writer Ed
·
I
-_ .
'
_ This dealer claimed the Gaming Control Board had at can catch them as they peek.
. different times confiscated several decks which he had so -.Jf you ar& suspicious, there is one method which wiJl
·l and that images of them had been projected greatly frequently catch the peeking or put a stop to it If tz.
enlarged on a w.aU without the markings ever having been dealer peeks, his eyes must rest upon the card at which .he
detected. is peeking unless he uses a "shiner." While one person plays,
· ' Some people fall asleep ·at night thinking about their tDQther person stands (this has advantages over sitting, as
Jobs. or their stockf, or their families. Mathematicians faD we shall see when we discuss dealing seconds) behind the
asleep thinking out problemS in higher mathematics. Some , player and stares at the dealer's eyes. Whenever the delller'a
people just count sheep. But this dealer confided that bo eyes took at the deck, the watcher's eyes ftick down to the
and his friends fall asleep thinking up "new ways to cheat · to see if a peek was poSS1"ble and then ftick back to
•em.• , the dealer's eyes. The watcher .should also have his eyes
on the deck whenever a card is being dealt.
P-eeking I have found this technique extremely suc:cessfol. Some
·. Marked cards have the disadvantage of being concrete · c;heat dealers so tense and nervous about being
e\lidence that can be used in a court of law. A more coni· caught that tbey become clumsy and.are caught all thtnnore-
mon method of identifying the top card, which has the· I{Uickly. OtherS stop cheating altogether under tho preSSUre.
fUrther advantage that it may be used with any deck ·what- A "shiner" is a little concealed mirror with which. tho
J soever, is for the dealer to actually look ·at the face of the dealer sees the faces of the cards, before or as they are dealt.
top card. This is called peeking. It might be put in such places as the face of a ring, the
· A skilled dealer can peek at the top card in plain view inside of •pipe_bowl, or the polished edge of the money
of a tableful of players with aJmost no risk of being caught ;ray Is31·
Suppo_se that a busts. The dealer collects his chips
_and his cards. He wtll often use both hands for this. If he · Home Experiment
holds the deck in the left hand, as that hand reaches out, · that ,the dealer peeks and deals seconds at
natural to tum it over so the deck is upside down. Try wl1L Here- is a .simple home experiment to show you- the
this and- freeze your left hand in this partially extended cmormous average advantage he gains whenever he decides
P;OOtion. Now reach out with your right hand and bend the : tddo this.
nght rear <:orner down slightly. Notice that you can identify : . Deal out one hand to a $ingle player (imaginary, if
.. AL ·
uecessary) and one to yourself, as dealer. Ha-ve thep'"'. YGG·<·il aboutto deal. Now_ rearrange the deck as follows.
uSe the basic strategy. Each time, Wore you give a .1\C comer should be nestled in the "elbOw" or
'?the player or yourself, peek at the top card. (It is joint of your index finger. Tbe tip of ibis. finger
. aunply to deal from a face-up pack, with an cards left up- be. slightly above the top front edge of the deCk (it
on the table.) If you prefer not to deal that card, hold if · keep_ the third card from being pulled forward by -the:
9le card. A certain amount of judgment: ac;tion of the second). The left-rear corner of the deck
JS liere. When you feel your judgment is s11ould be firmly seated in the palm. Tbe second, third, and
make p initial bet of one chip on each hand. Record t1te·· fOurth fingers should go under the deck and around. the
results for one hundred hands. Shuffte the deck well eaclr tight side. Their tips should 'also be slightly al>ove the top
time you need to reshuffie. I tried 100 hands against a of the deck. ·
player using the basic strategy. The player won 9 units and . No-w, with the thumb, which should be lying com-
the won I 10. Tbe net gain for the dealer was: a · b1ably on top of the deck toward the front, pull the top
whopp10g +101 per cent. Compare with the results ex·· ca.rd to the left, say half an inch. This half-an-inch figure is
pected for 100 honest hands, given in Table 3 .6. only for illustration. An expert would pull the top card
to the left (or down, for an important alternate variation)
Dealing Seconds only a very small amount. If your grlp is proper, the rest
Dealing seconds fs the principle weapon of literally of the deck should have been undisturbed by this motion.
millions of card cheats ·throughout the world. When com· The of the second card is now By using,
petently done, it is almost invisible, even to experts. Sleight• thumb on that comer much as in ordinary
of and of cards were already well devel-.. ing._ slide the second forward and to the right. When it is
oped m the SIXteenth century. With reference to this, see · -pal1 way out, grasp it with the thumb and forefinger just
the report by Catdano [50, pages 132_134], • in ordinary dealing. At about the same time, with the
haps most skilled gambler of his day, in which there are·· -left tbuml> slide the_ first card back into its original position.
stories of the miraculous skill and tricks of Dalmagus (or :If your grip was proper, only the top.and second cards were
Dalmautus) and of Francesco Soma. disturbed during the entire process. Proper height of the
One of detection-listening to the sound of tips of the second, third, and fourth fingers will prevent the
cards. being dealt-is generally useless in the usual cards below the. second from moving when the second card
DOtS)' casmo atmosphere. It is based on. the fact that the Is pulled out. ·Thus when the deal of second is
second rubs other cards on both its" surfaces when dealt,. the normal. This is not an expert .technique.
while the top card rubs only on its lower surface.' Thus· a' but 1t sliould gtve you some idea of how second dealing
wh!ch mc:tudes-a second generally sounds something works. .
like. swish, swish, scrape (second), swish. Of oourse these . If you used a deck with borders, you may have noticed
sounds and the difference between them are slight; thus it is that, as the second is dealt, the right border* of the top card
pneraUy necessary to have quiet to detect this. - • I assume the dealer is rlght-lianded throughout ibe boot. If the
. To get a very .rough idea of the technique of c1ealer II. left-handed, the wordr "right.. and "left" should be inter-
seconds, place a deck of cards in your left hand as though.. c:l!anpi_ by the reader throughOut many of these discussiona.
1$2 JiB AT_ 'I' IJ L:- "' ttY Spot CWi:tg
is almost lltationary. However, if a top card_!&- dealt, tbj: jltne. The rules were pretty standard except tbat gapte
right border: of the second is partially or ._. played with four decks all shufiled together. Further.
until tlie- top card has cleared the deck. ThuS one way to 1Jie cards were dealt from a "shoe." This was a black plastic
spot a second being dealt from a deck with borders is to . t;0x that was open at the top. The four decks were shuftled
stare from above the deck at the right border (left bordet atlcl placed in the box with their long edges down.
from the player's side of the table)) to see whether or not · ·There was a slit in the end of the box at the bottom and a
that border moves much as the card is dealt. sman oval hole running up from the slit for a short distance.
To counter this. many second dealers use decks with- 111e backs of the cards showed through the oval. The dealer
borders. However,. so do a number of honest casinos; placed his right thumb through the oval, and to deal the
thus the mere use of a borderless deck by no means ' cards, 'he drew them down and otit through the slit, one by·
cates cheating. To make it still harder for the player to..see a · one.
second being dealt, the dealer generally tips up the front of· This seemed like an ideal game with which to use the
the deck slightly so that the player views the_cards edge ont:. - Ten-count strategy because, with so many cards in play, ·
In.this instance the presence or absence of borders is imma· the fluctuationS in favorability from hand to hand (which
terial since the. backs of the cards are totally invisible at the teSUits from cards played on the hand) would be
instant a card is dealt. much smaller than in the one-deck game. Thus when large
Dealers often tilt the forward end of the deck so far up being placed, there would be much less fluctuation
.I and back toward their chests that kibitzers who are stand• · and down in the bet size. Half an hotll''S play at the
iDg cannot see the back of the top card. In this position table, waiting for favorable situations, confirmed this. When
one can deal a second without being caught. If you try this a run of .favorable situations finally came, I changed from
yourself, simply the top card down a short distance, waiting 9f $1 to the $5 to $25 range. There now was
deal the second by pulling it forward and up; and restore a long steady run of favorable situations before the
the top card to its initial position. · · decks finally ran out. I won about $8o. During the next
· Perhaps the inost popular type of cards now.· two or three- hours of play there were _comparable runs
-in use in the casinos are the famous Bee No. 6j. The pattern with similar results. Altogether, I accumulated about $16o.
on the backs consists of solid diamonds separated by brokeD . A card-expert friend who was standing by thought tho game
diagonal white stripes. This pattern seems to dazzle or blind_ was so--Bafe that he wandered away. Wo were soon to get_
the untrained eye; irs use seems to increase the difficultiea ._ an expensive education. ·
in detecting seconds. When the wrist flick is employed, this · . Shortly afterward, a dealer against whom I had DOt
pattern is even more effective in blinding the eye to tho previously played came to my table. After a few minutes..
of a second. · the four decks became. favorable. Only this time, I lost
nearly every hand. Before the run ended I had lost $250.
Deck-Stacking: The High-Low Pkkup · Startled and suspicious, I then watched tho dealer intently.
It was conceivable ihat could deal· seconds out of ,
Durmg my exploration of casinos to the Cheating tl&e shoe. BuJ how could he identify the top card? Peeking
methods actll!illy I came across a novel 5011 of . seemed impossible; hence shiners were ruled out. . What
-f :>: c
During and after this period a number of casino re- · alienates some customors. Farther, as we haw 'already
JPOnses and countermeasures to count players either' came pointed out in Chapter 9, shuflle up is fraught with diftl· '
into existence or developed further. · culties for the casino. How does a dealer know when-be is
i· ·· Cheating. · Cheating has already been discussed.
Barring. A casino can exclude a small class of
playerS without difficulty. However, this solution does not
facing a system player and when ho is not?1be best COUDt
players can play faster than any dealer can deal, and
11111oother and more effortlessly than most players. Thus they
rf
ICeDl feasible on a large scale. With the early system have ample freedom to adopt a guise. And t11c= ate many
players, photographs could be distributed to all ·local IUbt1o ways to camouftage varying one's bet size (when nee-
casinos, but for thousands of players this idea is simply essary tho variation can be mado quite small, to 1 or evea
impractical. Along these same lines, even though a given
casino's employees may remember a particular individual
and bar him from further play, barring is not a defense for
the casinos as a whole because it is possible that the ·m- _ Further DINlopmenta
dividual may work his way through the hundreds of exist- As we noted in Chapter 9. the casinos tried
ing casinos and allay suspicion- by winning opty a· few changes and gave them up. Tho outcome of the exporimenta
hundred dollars at each one. with automa;tic blackjack macbiDes remains to be seeu. ·
r-•. &BA!.IUl.\
119
I Low-cost miniature devices have been manufactured ·bJ
.players to do most of the work of counting .cards and playin'g CIJrnputers Versus Casinos
the various strategies. · The next step is obvious. A .computer oan be ill'<
. . The ultimate player would be a higb.:speed computer. structed quite easily always to make ·the best possible play.
A first step in this directipn was taken several years ago. by The player simply tells the -machine what the casino rules.
Robert Bamford of Jet Propulsion Laboratory. Bamford de- are and then informs it of the cards he bas seen and of the
signed a "black. box" to play blackjack. It is an electric shuftles, Then, a split second after ihe player tells the ma-
analog device that performs an approximate computation chine his cards, it would tell the player the best play.
for an arbitrary subset of cards. It tells the player his ap- It is technically :to link a casino blackjack
proximate correct strategy and approximate advantage. player by radio to a remotely located giant machine which ·
Cards are. read in by turning knobs attached to gang- does the actual playfng: The. player would win at several
switches. Information output is from a meter that is inter· times the of the best buii\BR players. Furthermore.
rogated by push buttons. The analog calculation is based special situations such as the Puerto Rican end play of
on a matrix approach similar in spirit to the matrix formu· Chapter 6 could be. exploited easily and precisely. .
lation of the iz$Ute-deck baccarat calculations of [70}. The If -a large computer were used, it could play $eYel'al
devico I saw Consisted of two portable-radio-sized boxes games at once. In industry computers are now commonly •.
wired together. Miniaturization to book-size or smaller used on such a time-sharing basis: while the machine is
WO\Ild be quite The device could be linked to the waiting for more Information on one problem, it spends ifs ..
. player by radio. It could instruct him automatically· upon · precious time solving another.
interrogation.
tried to persuade two casinos to play his Science Y Chance
but, in a comedy of double-talk and evasion re- nie IJlathcmaticaJ theory of probability originated in
ported by the Pasadena Sw-News. the casinos frustrated the sixteenth and seventeenth centuries with the considera-
his_ test. . tion by. Cardano, Pascal, apd others of various gambli118
But a ptatch between another computer a casino games, and With their investigations as to whether or not
did talc« place. At the time of -the 1963 Western Joint there were systems ·for beating them. Most notably, these
Compater· Conference, a. trio of Los Angeles computermen games were the forerunners and relatives of craps. From
on the Tropicana Hotel. The three operated the eight that. time until the recent past, a. series of persons whose·
pound LGP-21 for an hour. The machine's method of play names are illustrious in and physics have
was inspired by .the ideas of the first edition of B.eat the thought seriously about gambling games (and have often
Dealer. . made important related contributions to the mathematical
In a one-hour match, witnessed by Paul O'Neil of theory of probability!).ln addition to Cltfdano and Pascal, .
Life, myself, and many others, the machine won $36o [44]. . lOme· earlier examples arc Fermat, James and Daniel Bern-
Bets varied from $2 to $42. And the JD8Chine won in spite· oaUJi, Laplace, and Poisson. ·
of. the fact that the harried computennen · made several At the tum of this century, the great mathematician
costly errors. and physicist Henri Poincare considered the possibility of ·
':?',.
.......
However, for more than forty years there seem to have been SQ the method from being used on a large $C8le in
110 successful scientific attempts to devise winning,gamblinB :he casmos. (Tho few times I have used it to turn two or
three suddenly into a pile of silver dollars baa
The modern high-speed computer, essential to a care- caused enormous excitement.)
ful analysis of blackjack, has been widely available for only The method works, and the story behind its discovery
1he last ten or fifteen years; without such a computer the and development is a long and fascinating one. It will be
IDalysis on which this book is based would have been im· even more fascinating when, sometime in the next few ye&rs,
• With the continuing rapid growth in the number some of the few who possess the idea cash in on it ia the
of scielltlsts and and the rise of fantastic new casinos.
··ldeatiftc tools, the interest in the possibility of winning The game of poker has perhaps received more intense
pmbling systems is increasing. mathematical study than any other game. With the. exten-
• . .In the first edition we predicted scientifically based sive theoretical research that has already been done en the
WIJ1D11lg systems for other games would appear. Within a game, it should be possible to construct a practical playing
few months of publication, a team of trained players and I strategy superior to that currently used by any
went to Nevada with a winning systeD1 for the baccarat
&ide bets (S9o70], The Stock Market
We averaged $Ioo an hour for seven nights in casino
The greatest gambling game on earth is the one played
'nuniber one. It cried uncle and barred us. Later it removed
daily through the brokerage hpuses across the country. The
the side bet. At casino number two we upped the bets. We·
or so each trading day. A
averaged $r,ooo an hour for two homs and they barred us.r
$6o,ooo,ooo,ooo. The advantage of
·The side bets then disappeared in Nevada. • • · · ·
this game are two. First. it presumably serves
. Allan Wilson gives an interesting and entertainine ac-
a. social purpose by hs:lping to finance companies (when
count of attempts to identify and beat defective ("biased"'
stock issues are first sold on the market). Secqnd, the
•ne mM 704 hiaiHpeecl computer which we used spent about average "value" of stocks has tended strongty upward over
Claree houri caJculatiog. It cak:ulatca maD)' millions ot times 11 fast 11
a bwDaD lllCl II aearly error-free. It would have taken roughly tea the last century so that the game has. an "advantage," on
thoulaacl to do the eamo with the aid of a desk "'average," for the player.• ·
calcalator. Still bigger and faster mac:blnes are now available.
t Scame'a jambled account of out ploy, wbich he c:laima to hau • Quotes are used .euensivciy heN to .indicate that I am usins
from his casiao pals, Is pathetically fk:titious. . - famtliar words with weB-defined meaainp to roughly india1te other
•• As this is written, the Carousel in Las Veps is trvtn,. amoclifiecl ideas. Pn=clse oxplaDatiolls of tbeso other ideas. to which I have givca
ad "'afcr'" venioll of thole lidO betl. -r "" ·· much thoupt. arc too complex and lengthy for me to discuss them bere
··tb .. BBA'I' 'I'HB DlfA:ili-t·
_ ··ne iimDarity bet\veelt1be casinos and the brokerage fme called .. .We ltave tried to· indicate. a few of
is·strifdng. The customers' mea croupfen. the developments that are similar in spirit to.thpse desen"bed
'correspond·to the house percentage. the in this book. But most of the posstDilitie5 are beyond 1:he
board ·1'00DlJ are the casinos themselves. The stock ex- reach of our present imagination and dreams. It will be ex·
chiDges and the ticker tape are the gambJiDg devices. The citing to see them unfold.
superstitions, unfounded slogans, and sayings of wan Street
correspond to those of the gamblers': "The· dice are hot."
To a good first approximation, stocks show the same
mathematical characteristics of randomness that are shown
by the chance devices in the gaming houses [7]. But a
aumber of patterns are now being discovered. To convince
yourself tliat there are patterns in stock prices. pick up
tomorrow morning's newspaper. (I assure you I haven't
it yet.) Notice that the stock prices are giwD as a
whote number followed by a fraction, for example 23Ms.
Now run down the page and tally the number of each end-
·big· tluU You will find whole most
conunon, ;;hen halves, then qu_arters. The lowly eighths
occur least often. (I ignore In addition to this
pttem of endings exhibited by the market as a whole, each
stock has its own characteristic pattern. for these fractional
enc!ings. . -
The mathematical analysis of the. stock market is being
undertaken by many groups. With the advance in computer
technology and Qlathematical theory, We .can expect dra·.
matic progress.bl prices. this
In Beat The Market: A Scientific Market System.
S. Kassouf and I present a stock market system which ap-
pears to us to combine high safety with high return. It has
averaged more than as% a year for us under widely wcying
market conditions.
·•84·
_,
1.6' B BAT TJIB DB.At.;Btt·
-dou'ble dowa: on thC ·JleW llaDds. (This de- Ace. may. split again, but he. may not split
creases the player's advantage.) further. (This is favorable to the player.)
j (t') Doubling down is only permitted on totals of (e) If a player splits a pair of Io-value cards and
1
-:··! bard 9. to, and 11, and soft 19, 20, and u. draws an Ace to one of the spUt hands, it
(This decreases the player's advantage.) counts as a natural. But a 1o-value card
(f) A player who doubles down on 9 and gets a 2 drawn to a split Ace counts merely as' 21.
may draw another w-d. (This increases the (This variation is. favorable to the player.
player's advantage. A correct strategy calls rens should tend to be split slightly more than
· for sUghtly more frequent doubling down on normally.)
9, but this refinement can be ignored.) (f) see 2(e).
Customs. See Ca5ino 1. (g) See I (e). .
Conclusion.t. ·The basiHtrategy player bas a disad· Customs. The dealer shuftles about twenty cards be-
vantage of about o.6o%. An average or better system fore the end of the shoe. (Not serious, in my experience.)
.player will win at about the typical rate (assuming he takes At one time this casino allowed doubling down. with the
some advantage of end· play._) . above totals, on any number of. cards. A player whose total
after doubling down was bard IO or 1 I or soft 20 or 21
Casino 3 was allowed to redouble and. receive a fourth card. Also.
(a) :ne minimum bet is lOS. and the maximum the dealer dealt down· to the last card. ·
is £.so. Conclusions. The basic-strategy player would appear
(b) .The cards are all dealt face The dealer to be at a disadvantage of roughly o.6I% or moi.'C. A sys-
does not get his second card until the playm tem player will win, but at perhaps half or less of the
have taken such additional cards as they re- typical rate.
quire. A player who increases his· stake by In this way readers may analyze any casino with the
splitting and/or doubling down loses his in· aid of Table 9.2.
creased stake if the dealer gets a natural.
(This is somewhat unfavorable to the player.
When the dealer shows an Ace or Ten, be
much more conservative about doubling down
or splitting pairs.)
(c) If the dCaler bas soft 17, be may draw or not.
as he likes. after looking at the players' Ca.rds.
('Ibis is quite unfavorable to the player, for . \·
the dealer can see what they have ·and so .
make decisions quite favorable to himself. His
l
preeise gain is not known.)
(d) A player who splits Aces and obtains a tbird I
1
APPENDIX
iM Deck
computed assuming one complete deck and the rules of
Chapter 3, including the rule of a dealer's soft at8ncting
number of 17. Since the figures may vary c:oDSldcrably if
these conditious .-re al,tered, any·deductious one makes on
Basic· Probabilities for the basis of this appendix are precisely applicable only to
the situation just described. Such deductions do, however,
give rough insight into situatioDS in which there are several
the Complete Deck decks in play or in which the roles are different. ·
In detetmruing the player's strategy, the errors in our
figures may cause enors, but only when the decision is very
close. And in that case the errors caused by the erroneous
strategy will be very small. This, plus the low frequency of
close decisions, meaus the effect on the player's advantage
of .any strategic errors of this type are 8J.so very small. "nlis
IS a virtue of the running count. Roughly speakiilg. certain
An understanding of this appendix is not essential to. the dOse decisions, such as whether or not to draw on hard 16
reSt of the book. It is included for the interest of math- · wtlen the dealer holds a Ten, will depend on what cards
ematically inclined readers. . .' the player bas drawn to make up his total of 16. For ex-
lr
t
The tables in this appendix are an extract of the com-
puter's results for the case in which cards are dealt from one
complete deck. Results. like these. including one full set
for each of the decks described in Table 4- I, were used to
amplC. ttis known that holding (10.4,2) the player Should
stand, while holding (Io.6) he should draw. If several
siDati cards have been drawn to make the total of I6, the
decision may be fairly clear-cuL For example, if the cards .
construct the blackjack theory givt.n in this book. Because drawn were (4'.4.4.4), Julian Braun has shown that the
of· the extreme length of the data-there are enough final
j ·results alone to fill several books the size of this one with
player's disadvantage in drawing against a Ten is preclselJ
(!) 6.382 per cent, as compared with the average.
lf litnit ourselves to presenting complete-deck
figures, and only ari extract of these. Since in our discussion
advantage of 2.9 per cent (3.2 per cent if (8.8) is
in drawing to two-card hard I 6 against a Ten.
and application of these figures we generally do not need One could attempt to improve the basic strategy by.
more than three decimal places, the tables given here are calculating the advantage or disadvantage of standing
usually to three decimal places. drawing for each combination. of cards the player can draw
a
All figures are to be understood as having decimal to make a total of hard 16. Then the ptayer could consult
point on the left, though the decimal point is omitted. For a -list of card· cOmbinations to see Whether to draw or staml
example, -039 is to be read as -0.039. . · This refinement,. in aU its precise detiill, is impractical be> ·
We emphasize again that figures in this appendix were.. . ca1lSe its hulk (many hundreds of eiltrles) would prevent
• rsa• . the player from memorizing amf using it in play. Further-
more, the net gain is quite small.
.....- .......... __ (:_-!""_ .... '
190 BBAT TBB DBALBlL
tOr the Compltte Declc 191
-, However,
the running count in _With tho -
. ·. l:AIII.B 2a. Pl41er'1 GW. DttZwtng twll' Slandlllf
Tens strategy does- take into account the cants the player. - with HMil 2'ot111l ' ·
dra'\\1& It is not as as the detailed strategy outlined ·b!e!er . . PlayeR hard total •.
above because it only classifies cards into two crude cate- lbowa D 1S 14 U 16 17 18 U
gories. Tens ud others. But it does gain much-even - 3 038 ...016 ...(T17 -141 -171 -383 -753 -1.135 -1.474
most-of the difference.. 3 013 -045 -117 -179 -212 -417 -775 -J.JIH -lAC
• -o17 -o86 -158 -222 -258 -467 -761 -1.116 -1·.491
'I'AJII.B 1. Dear.t'. Pro1Mbllltl& · -. -046 -:117 -191 -260 -297 -448 -793 -1.157 -1.S1t
' -(l2S -()94 -167 -233 -220 -470 -853 -Ll90 -l.SC
J)ea1cr Dealer's total
21
' 20J 166 114 u' no -331 -'J57 -uoa -uoa
17 11 J9 20 natural busts I 189 148 145 108 '102 -{119 -657 -1.274 -1.626
' _141 103 062 055 -114 .....tOO -964 -1.586
z ·1390 1318 1318 1239 3530
10 156 119 07J 038 029 -148 -471. -813 -L420
s 1303 1309 1238 1233 1160 3756
•
5
1310
il97
1142.
1235
1207
1169
1163
1047
1151
106)
om
4023
4289
A 246 221 186 159 146 -o89 -554 -1.050 -1.533
1458
1310
1381
1295·
1348
1316
1758
OS16
0736
3137
0483
U6S
2836
this one.:il you -always draw rather than stand. witia hatd 12
,against a 1\Vo, you win be better o1f by appmximately aa
additional 3.8 per cent of yOU!' Initial bet. If an entry is
- Table 1- gives the probabUity 'that the dealer wm positive in the table, the player should draw rather thaa
achii:Ve a speci1ied total for eacb possible value of his up Jtalld. if an entry is =gative the player shot,tld
card. Tho rows of the table do not generally quite add up s.tand• not draw. The inspection of this table immediately
to-one because of small round-off and approximation errors. J!$elds the hard standing numbers. This is, in fact. how they
The defect is 110 than Io-• and so for practical pur- were first obtained.
poses is negUgJ.'ble. The column totals show slight discrepan-. : - .• Similar remarks apply to Table 2b except that the
_cies with the overall probability figures because the original entrieS yield_ the soft standing .numbers.
table laad five- figures and was rounded off after the columns _ Thero lwo extremely close decisions, one each iD
were summed. Tables 2a and In Table_ 2a, the player who standS rather
- ThiS table is of course valid only if we assume that the ;than draws on two-card hard 16 against a Ten loses, in
dealer plays all his hands to a conclusion even though situations, average amount of about 2.9 per cent
his opponents all bust. ln an ordinary game the dealer tloes :pf his W8F'· .CW1th (Io,6) the loss is 3.8 per cc;nt. with
not do this. . (9,7) .it.is o.8 per cent. and :Mth it iJ o.g .per cent.
· From this point on. all tables are computed on 1M with worgbts frQJ:D prob-
IUSIImpticm-thizt .the dealer does not have anatural. .. llbitilf theory 2.9 per cent. Jf (8,8) is Split SO tbat.Jt
.. -iS DOt inclUded. the figw"e changes to 3·2 cent.) -
i93
,.ABI.B ·2b. PIQen ·o•SDft TDitlll.
DlwnP6It-.. ·
· the JSO
alterriative in the table.
thereJs no need to Ust that
,. Dealer
llhowa- 17 18
Pia,.... lOftu
total
tl TABLB 3. Plap¥'1 Advantage 8tantllng tm Vmlou.r 2'olil!f.
il
1: I 141 -on -28$ -470 Dealer Player's total
s 131 -G74 -251 -45J shows 16 . 17 18 u tl u
•'
! •I
118
141
·-cMS
-o46
-233
-235
-430
-419 2
3
-294
-249
-155
-119
116
143 ,,., ,,
'" Ci35
644
m
884
,'
131 -fJ67 -418
4 -194 -663 l8l 417
f 151 -230 -388 -528 88S
I 319 -G71 -442 -f08 5 -142 -o23 l21 461 683 8H
"ll on
' -159 009 281 496 704 9G
-
lj 270 -280
7 -108 115
••
l H l33 04S -157 --541 -480 403 Cil9 927
291 -oot .-303 i -$23 -391 lOl 594 19l 930
-533 ' -411
194
, •. --.=..,....------ -T=- - - - -
________
=,.,..,-_::;..";,?;1
f .. ,, ., ••
A -oo%1
A 2 3 I 8
'
f:
1:
-o141
-o600
-1134•
-1668
-1347
-2225
-2625 -3100
-3046 -3039•
-2840• -2171•
-2084 -o5u
-2044•
-osu•
1174
1204•
1517
MH=17
•MH=I&
-3862
MS=It
{j
-:0870 1495 -3896 -418$
2880 120S 1392 -3949 -4134 -437:1 -4432 -4811
76$6 1425 -3921 -3652 -41St -4191 -4820 -4116 -1964
1.$000 -3444 -3588 -m5 -4753 -4793 -4161 -1961 2643 7440 w
A -4206 tit.·
>-
2 -3727 -1.o46J
...
J: -3935 -1.0659 -1.0653
-4118 -1.0453 -9462 -7011 .... ·
1110 $ -4520 -!1263 -7029
-3451 -6916 -2897
:§ ' -2545 -2741
-2790
1646
1746
2399 -8174 =
tit
!: 1744
nos 2138 -8404
1537
2152
2247
-8331
-1581
-8260
or-8476
-8694 -9782
-8879 -8936 -9742
-9668 -!1641 -1.0638 -t.189S
"·
til ...
'
-8598 >
lt 1165 ..;.7455 -7521 -8394 I -9519 -9586 -1.0529 -1.1864 -1.3956 -1.6841
Pair Splitting 2898 . '7373 -395 -459 -560 -541 -535 -383 -()93 171 =.i;;.
TABLE 4c. Dealer's. Up Card Is Eight, h tl:i
! A 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
"tt
_g.
A 0930
l !
Cl
0391
0350
-1410
-1808 -2311
MH=17 MS=t8 ;:::
·m 8 6078
1209 1076
2073
2171
2203
2217
-3192
-3210
-3868
-3944
-3691
-4019
-3796 -4263
:i-
i'! 9 7848 2153 -3161 -3389 -3701 -4207 -4278 -4149 0645
Q 10 1.5000 -2745 -3282 -3574 -4180 -4248 -3942 0955 5768 7832
A -2956
2 -3124 -1.0298 "" (
i! -2542 -1.0254' -!1997
I : -3141
-3326
-2297
7 -Q153
8 1902
-1.0231
-853S
-4371
0074
2945
-8486
-4282
0142
3269
3300
-4471
0007
3172
3402
-7193
3229
3657
-7112
-8291
-7114
-8429
-7746
-8519
-7774 -8526
:'
••
\
t
'
.lt
hit SpUttblg
2298
3317'
3277
' -6259
-7037
-7056
___=244
-7241
-7393
-291.
-7619
-391.
-8556
-8496
·-374
-8556
-378
-!1506 -1.1325
-:1.1303 -1.3947
-o59 207
-U8S4
345
....
...
TAIILB 4cl. D«dtl• Up Cartll1 In& ... '
GO
Plajer"s bole c:anls-
f s fD
A
2
A
1584
2 4 I
' ' 8 9
1:
Ill)
1073 -o918 MH=17 MS=18
0604. -1192 . -1645
0337 -1639 -o706 1106
"' 5 -o238 -o674 -0926 2013 278G
0596 0918 1977 2856 2974 -'J.011
fil ' -3m
f: 4120
614$
1836
2676
2772
2918
2938
-2456
-258%
-3275
-3307
-348S -3241 -3736
a' 10
:7732
1.5000
288!) -2471
-2120 -2704
-2741
-3422
-3480
-3645
-3632
-3761
-3750
-1213
-122!)
3887
«<ll
6101 7647
•
til'
A -1370
2 -1572 -9421 >.
3 -1745 -9378 -8712.
-8 4 -1409 -8703 -5426 -1084
Ill) 5
;§ 6
il 7
-1891
0142
2402
-5672
-1481
1600
-1323
1757
4447
1905
4754
4874
<1663
5005'
-5852
-5985
-7141 -8230
=
til
tJ
iS 8 3253 4166 4726 -5636 -7065 -7346 -6660 -7471 til
9 3513 4554 -5188 -6001 -7276 -7446 -7499 -8976 -1.1321 >
10 4676 -4958 -5830 -7068 -7363 -1524 -9039 -1.1345 -1.3971 -1.6860 l"'
5401 -oo6 -o68 -160 -228 -228 -os6 259 364 · 478
...
til
f
A 1996
A 2 3 4 I
' 7 8 9 10
f
2 1685 0320
3 1472 0192 0139
NH=11 MS=IB
at
4 1203 0141 0592 1753 i'
'!2
Iii
5
'
liS!)
1332
0696
1321
1637
2313
2633
3316
3618
3807 -1651
l
.r'II! 7 2622 2097 3180 3657 -1435 -1697 -1142 i-
a 8
9
4824
6941
3075
3458
3561 -1473
-1538 -1514
-1460
-1501
-1723
-176S
-1770
-1796
-1782
-o114 2651 &'
18
A
1.5000
2479
-1604 -1578 -1554 -1542 -1790 · -om 2681 4841 6974
t it
r
2 2302 -2490
3 2218 -2438 -2145
o 4 2001 -2150 -os69 1932
-: 5 2i67 -o610 1899 4433 7236
;§ ' 2665 1242 3792 6633 7614 -3871
ai
7
'
a
3849
4826
5598
3574
6151
6916
6361
1122
-3876
7315
-3682
-4563
-3577
-$351
-6115
-5613
-6465
-8018
-7241 -7934
-7944 -9616 -1.1734
10 -3189 -4578 -6161 -7746 -7926 -9667 -1.1721 '-1.4140 -1.6900
PaftSpHtUns 758J 240 220 183 131 151 220 356 437 543- I
2EUL_!¥4¥. ___ ¥¥QC1§___ L- .B .IJ .. .·.. W.4L4-%=-41f-41£!4,W¥W ifi
f1 2
3
4
5
'
1587
1366
1078
0821
1400
0359
0215
0089
0568
1306
0083
0490
14i1
2350
1539
2464
338&
3473
3936
MH=12
-1022
MS=18
ate'
111 8
m1
1.5000
4608 2960
33PS
-1440
341»5
-1!68
-1412
-1308
-1339
-13Bl
-1283
-1314
.:.1357
-1338
-1369
-1411
-1605
-1636
-()432
-1654
-0444
2023
201'
4478 67'J7 w
A 2157 w
>-
...
.
2 2123 -2140
= s 2036
-8 4 1750
-2085
-tass
-1840
-os14 1m
liD 5
;§ '
1482
2800
-()70'J
130&
1550
3916
4150
6776
6947
7873 -3247
-7407
-=.,
-a • 7
'
3491
4s3o
5362
3321
5920
6796
6150
6991
-3932
7234
-3732
-4641
-3555
-s4oo
-6277
-5381
-6344
-8041
-7462
-9041
-9058
-9852 -1.1805
0
ld
>' ,
18 6630 -3171 -470& -6293 -7992 -8884 -9849 -uau -1.4175 -1.6912 t"'
PairSpllttln& 7322 239 228 ,197 133 172 200 ' 312 415 521 ...llf,
r·
!
:f:a
A
.A
1421
1102 -G348
2 3 4 5
'MH=12
7
MS=18
8
' 10
:l
::::
0908 -o410
I : 0614 -GSS2
-G474
-G166 0978
•MH=13
·f
1., :7 0380
0773
-G103
0811
0866
1860
1896'
2928
2949
3520 -1519 l
2040 1676
i'
!:
2852 3425 -1545 -1584 . -1640
4155 2525 3126 -1829 -1813 -1841 -1896 -2153
6539 '3000 -1913 -1885 -1859 -1886 -1942 -G844 1670
10 1.5000
A
-1940• -1971 -1934 -1907 -1935 ..:.o644 1641 4041 6448 .e
2
1366
1151 -3840 i"
J: 5
1091
0849
0626
-3517
-3237
-1946
-3022
-1777
0411
0441
2970 5898
t:::l
a.
1S4S 0133 2896 sass 7039 -3802
:a ' 3127 2718 5104 6851 -3836 -5541 -7376
! : 3731 '5049 6252 ' -4281 -5836 -6751 -7601 -9113
' 4592
10. 5?51
Pair SpUtting 66116
6001
-:-3879
112
-4510 -5086
-5159 -ci729
102 076
-6710
-8360
014
-8392 -9059 -1.0823 -1.1940
-9091 -1.0702 -1.1946 -1.4234
047 103 215 320
-1.6925
444 ....
' /
fo#S: ·': &a&.- .. A4 ____;; .;__ J __ .a ---- --· .;
'
! A 2 3 4 5
' 7 8 9 10
A 1203
f:
1668 1308 2461• 3056• -2124° -1148 -2194
4191 2411• 2952• -2202• -2167 -1201 -2239 -2284
6441 1690° -2551 -2460 -2436 -1460 -2497 -1207 1225
10 1.5000 -2193 -1657 -2509 -2474 -2499 -1190 1444 3835 6361 w
A 0549 &If
2 0184 -5015 >
J: 0108 -49.70
0026 -4455
-4721
-3237 -o825 """ll
i: -o192 -3107
0739 -0783
;g 7 188!) 1946
-o832
1891
.C921
1956
5009
6111
5096
6294
-4439
-4443
-6081 -7765
"ttlcf
.3 8 3460 4825 5904 -4595 -6112 -6939 -7626 -899P
-8646 -9180 -1.0710 ...,1.2766
&If
>
' 3912 5380 -5114 -5607 -7111
.."·
10 $363 -4386 -5664 -7114 -8595 -9228 -1.0728 -1.2673 -1.4251 -1.6926
&If'
Pair Splitting 6128 024 . -oJJ -o48 -104 -o69 -o20 132 . 24. 383
-,; '·,\
-1132
-1314 -1530
-1507 -1230
-o994 -ot65
-o130
3
0921
-ot26
0933
2175
4 5
2238
2840
' MH=1l
0 MH=14
-2527
7
MS=18
8 9 10
I"
l
., 7 1358 0835 . 2144 2723 -2526 -2651 -2684 It
sIJ 11
9
4016
6559'
21301 2682
2636 -2663
-2598
-2858
-2650
-2694
-2679
-2734
-2721
-2766
-2749
-1366 1370 n
1
.a.
10 1.5000
A -D193
2
3 -0468
-2434• '-3042•
-5816
-5866 -5615
-3102 -2948 -2977 -1582 1188 3848 a272
i i'
4 -o700
5 -o819
-5601
-4018
-42!)1
-1678
-1846
1135 4464 a.
I , o1n -1628 ms 4322 56n -so54
1 7 1276 1174 4260 5417 -5053 -6639 -8128
8 2372 4245 -5197 -6626 1 -7252 -7808 -9082
1.
t . -3798 . $248
-4868
-5325
-6084
-5860
..7376
-7179
-8724
-8605 -9120 -1.0603 -1.2550
-9308' -1.0769 -1.2651 -1.4993 -1.6t33
--11& -156 ..:.193 064 188 331
!
. . __ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _............. ...i......-,-lu:&.'·'"
' aG4- BBAT TBB DB.ALBB
•"'
... :... ""'
1": s
T
,£!s...
l;:t:
Ti
::::
i
""'
I!,,,, 3 7f17Y M"''I::"O-
T"a't=:!=:!
I I
'f
I,
!!
.. • §
- s;;¥; G\ 00 0 f'4·""'
It\
Q
C'f\M
Ttt=:! 'f
.-.4
•
... I a) AsHsAUOH, DoN, "'Game for Gaming," l.tu Vegu Review
lottriUll (Sunday Feature Section), December 25, 196o, pp. _
22.
. J_ ...
' 12) BALDWIN, ROGER; CucnY, WILBERT; MAISEL, HERBERT; ancl
McDERMOTT, lAMES, "1bc Optimum Strategy in Blackjack.•
•
... oo
TT; i' JouriUll of the .American Slllli6ticol .Auociation. VoL 51,
,;
t .. ..
ii 429-439 (1956).
I 31 - . Playing Blackjack to Win; .A New Slratetf1/or thl
.... ....
771Y 0 aT ... o.yf! "'T
\0 of :11 (M. Barrows 8t Co., Inc.., New York, 1957)•
"S7 I [ 4) &Mton Globe, January 24. 1961, pp. 1,
t.
I 1
f·
a7•17Y
... :;
-· . . a-..
"l"l --:'; ... ,
......
T
I sl Cuu>.ulo, GEROLAMO. Book em Gsmu of Cb.tnrc. ,(writtea
about 1520 and first published in 1663), Trailslated b)'
SIDNEY H. Gotn.o (Holt, RiDeban and Winston. Inc.. New
1 1
TTii York and San Fl'IUKlisc:o, 1961).
I
• ...
....
0\ (6] Collllflb• Dl6patrh, January 301 1961, p. I•B.
-5oA 0\0\G\-V\C"ftt\G\ .... [ 7) Coo1"ND. PAUL H., ed., The Random Character of Stoci
I I I I I ... 'ri'i''f'fi'TT ... Prices (M. I. T. Press, Cambridge. Massachusetts) •
.t- . . . . . . IIQ\0 . . . . I [ 8) CRAWFORD, 10HN R.. How to Be tz Consistent Wbuter In tlw
Most Popular Card GtUnes (Doubledq and Co.. IDe.. New
IG
1::: "" :IIJ!PUlql pU8 :IIIJdl(l 1L1AOP iunCluoa York, 1953). ·
·a I 91. CULBERTSON. ELY; MOIU!IIEAD, ALBERT; MOTT.sMml, GBOPo
"" FREY,
(The
Card Gamel Complete, with OlficltJl RW.. -
Greystone Press, New York. -•9si).
•1o.s•
i-
q,
i"
!',
2o6 BEAT THE DEAL • • 207
(10] DAIWAS, NICHOI.AS, Wall Slreet, TM Second Lu {i9J LEWIS, OscAR, Sagehnah Thtt StDry oflAIJfll G -
(Stuart. Lyle, New York. rg62)". . bling in Nevada (Doubleday & Co.. Inc., New Y0rt.1953).
[II) PELLER. WIWAM. An lntroductloll to ProbllbUlty ThetWI (3o) . Life, "Senators Survey Low-Belly Septelnber. le
lllld.ltl Appllctllltml, VoL J. Second Edition (John Wlley &: I96I,p.39· . •
Sons. Inc.. New York. 1957). • (31) Los Angeles Herald Examlller, -can YOU Beat BlackJa47"
[12] Fox. PHILLIP G. (as told to SrANLBY Fox), ..A Pnmer for June to, 1962, p. HI. ·. ·
Chumps." Stllurtbzy Evening Post. November :n, 1959, PP. (32] Los Angeles Herald Examiner, "Crooked Dice Charge: Vegaa
31ff. . b'" Casino Oosed. First Case of Cheating in Nevada (nc)."
[13] Fli.EY, RICRA1tD L., At:t:ordlng to Hoyle (Fawcett Pu .tca- April4. 1964. p •.1. · . ·
tions. Inc.. Greenwich. Conn., 1956). l331 Los Angeles Times, "Federal Extortion Case May Link Lat
[14] Fuan DocToR BatJNO. TM Practktzl Way to a Better- Vegas Gambling to Underworld." February 6, 1964. p. 1.
Mtmo", (Fawcett Publications. Inc., Greenwich, Coma.. l341 Los Angeles Times, "Vegas Casinos Cry Uncle, CbanJe
1957>· . • Rules," April 2, 1964-
[15] GARCIA. FaANK. Cartfl and Loaded Dice (PrentiCe- l35l MAcDou<iALL. MICHAEL, "'Even 'HonesJ' Vegas Hause
Hall, fnc.. New York, Cheats." Sunday Star-Ledger, Newark. New Jersey, J>c:cem.
[16} GooDMAN, MDCE. How to Will at Cards, Dice, Races flll4 ber 2, 1962, p. 35· .
Roulette (HoUoway House Publishing Co., Los Angeles. • (36] - , MacDougall on Dice tuUI Cards (Coward-Mceana.
196)). Inc., New York. 1944).
[17] GIU!ENSPtJN, HANK. "'Where I Stand." Lu Y ttgu Sun, Jan- l37l - - . "Nevada Trumps a Blackjack Dealer," Sunday Sttlllo
uary 26. p. lo . Ledger, Newark, New Jersey, Apn1 19, 1964. p. 2..
(18) HUFF, DAUBLL, Thtt Mtllhttnuztb D/ Sex. Gambling flll4 (38) MCKINSEY, JoHN C.. lniroduction to tM Theoq. of Gama
IIUrll'tlMe (Harper & Brothen, New York, 1959). (McGraw-Hill Book Co•• Inc., New .York,
(19} JoNEs. JACJC. GoiJM Gtunbtg Guille (Silver State l391 Miami News. JanQary 25, 1961, p. 6A. · ·
Publishing Co.. Las Vegas. 1949). (401 MoNROE, KEITH, "William Harrah: The New. Gamb1bJa
(20) JONES, Sri.AT (AP), '"Thorp's Book Brings About Vegas King. and the Social Scientists," Harpers, January, 1!)62.
Sbateup... lAI Cruea Sun-Nftll. AprU 3, 1964. p. I. (41) The Nation, February 4. 1!)61. .
(21) KATCHEB. LEo. TM Big Btlllkroll: thtt Llftt and. Times of (42) Newsweek, "Gambling: Hello Suckers." September 4. 1961.
Artaold Roth8ulll (Harper lc BrotJiers. New York, 1959). pp. 22tf. . '
(22) K. C. Card Co.. Annlven/l1'] Blue Book, 196o, (431 New York Herald Tlihu'nl, January 29, 1!)61, pp. I, 24o
- Chicago. I959- [441 New York Journql American, "Computer Beats House II
ra31 KI!LLY, J. L;."•A New Interpretation of Information Rate," '21' in Las Vegas.• Nqvember 15, 1963, p. 1. .
IRE on 111/ormtllloia Theory, Vol. No. 3o [451 New York Joul7ial American. "How W"IZIU"d of Odds Beat
September, 1956. BeU Systma Tech. J., Vol. 35, 917-926•• Las Vegas Cards,.. Apri1·3, 1¢4, p. 1.
(1956). "[461 New Yor/c Times. Western Edition, "Las GambiJna
1241 l.tu Cruce• Sllrt-New. "'Mobster Swears Gang Boss Has In- Take Creates New Force in U. S.; MiJiions in Untaxed
terests in Las Vegas," October I, 1963: p. I. " 'Black Money' Give Obscure Figures Power that
(25] lAI Vegu Rm.w-IOUTIIIIl. "'Silver Slipper Raided." April 4e from Underworld to Government," November 18, 1963.
1964, p. i. New Yor! Times Book Best.Seller IJst. Ap.rillt
(26] l.tu Yep Rnkw-1011111tll. "'State Casinos Change Rules oa and May J.
•a1' Games," AprD 1964, p. 1. [481 OLSEN, Eo, to the Editor, Llje. AJJrill7, 1964, p. 27.
[27] lm Y1gar Sun. January 25 and 27, 1961. O'NEIL, PAUL, "'The Professor Who Breaks the Bank." Ll/tt,
(28] Lta VegtU Sun, "U.S. to Smash Mob-Ruled LV easrnos.• • March 1964. pp. 8()-!)1. · ·
. January 29. P. lo (Sol ORE, OYsTEIN, Catdano, The Gambling Scholarlwith a trans-
--
rr --
r
I
" Jadon (from t1nt l.atlll Cardano's book. Gamu of Cham:e) '(68) - . ' " A Favorable Strategy for Twenty-One.• .l'rocud·
,d
' by SIDNEY .HENRY. Gout.i>) (PriDc:etoll University Press, lngs of the Nt:lllonDl Jfctldenry of Sciences, Vol. 47, No. r, .f
i
Princetoa, N. J,. 1953). • • pp. no-u2 · (l!lfjl). t
(SI] PIP'ade Sunday Magar)M, Intelligence Report: - . ' " A Prof Beats the Gamblers,• Atkmdc Montlalf, i
August 2S. 1963- · June. 1962.
(52] H&NJUo Scknce tmd Mahotl. Translated by Fma- [7o] - a n d WAI.DI!N, w.. A Favorable- S"J.de Bet In Nevada ,H
cis Maidand (Dover Publications. Inc.. New York. 1958).
fs3] RADNea. SIDNEY H.. How to Spot Card Sharps tiiUl Their
Methbtls (Key Publishing Co.. New York. 1957).
THa RAND CoRPOJtA110N, A Mmlon Random Digits wltla
Baccarat. Jounllll of the American Sttlllstlclll Anocilltlon, VoL
Ch1 JIJ-J18 (f966),
[71) TUM. Moderll Uving: "Eight Days to Wm." .January 13.
. ji
1961, p. 82ff. ;
'
100.000 Normlll Devlota (Free Press of Glencoe. -Diinois, . [721 "'Games: 'Beating the Dealer,'" .January 25. 1963.
1955). . P· 70. . ..
bsl ReiD, ED and DeMARIS, OVID, Grun Felt Jungle (Trl- (73] Non-Fictioa Best Seller List. May 29. 1964. p. 4o
dent. New York. 1963). Reprinted and enlarged (Pocket TuaNea. WALLACl!o "Nevada Gambling Faces New Test.• 'l
Books. Inc.. New York. 1964). All references are to the New York Tlmn, April 12, 1964. p. 53· .
;i
enlargecl Pocket Boot verslon. . [75, ---:--.New York Tlmu. November 18. 15163 to ,.
fs6) RIDDLE, MAJOR A.. as told to Hyams. Joe. The Weekt:ntl 22, 1963, p. ••
Gtunblet'• iltlllllbook (Random House, New York. 1963). · [76) W.. Ph.D. 1besis. .New Mexico State University
fs7l Rosa, INI!Zo •Bets Are Off,• New York JVDrld-Telegrtun on4 (unpublished).
Sun, February 7o 1961. [77) WANNISKJ, .Juoe. "'Gamblers ShufDe Blackjack Bact
(58] ScARNEo JOHN, Scai-ne'l Complete Guide to Gtunbling (SbnOD to Old Deal.• The NIIIIINull Obuner, June 15, 1964. p; &
ancl Shuster. Inc.. New York.. 1961). [78) WMhlngtoll Pc tmd Tlma Hnrl14. January 25, 19fj1, p. 3;
b91 ScHERMAN,· DAVID E.. '"It's ByeJ Bye! Blackjack.• Sportl editorial. "High Stakes.• p. January 26, 19fj1.
IUustrated, January 13, 196.4- .. [79) Wsu.wo. JOHN D.. TAe Compktlt Strategyst CMcGra.,.
[6o] SciENTIFIC AMERICAN, ·"How to Beat the Game.• April. Hut Boot Co.. Inc., New York. 1954).
1961. p. 84- (So] W11.SON. ALLAN, The Casino Gtunblln'• Gidde (Harper ancl
(61] SHeiNWOLO. ALFREDo "It's in the Cards: Blao:kjack-Count- Row, Ne\V York. 1965).
ing the Cards," Argory, August, 1961. ;1
(62] SHEllMAN, GENe. • "Off The Top' Plagues Gambling Au-
tboritles. Pocketing Moaey Without Being Reported for Tax
Purposes Called Impossible to Prave." lA Angela Tlma. l,
October 28, 1963.
(631 Showboat Hotel. Las Vegas. Nevada, '"The Univac '21' FOlio !I
mula for Standing or Drawing."
i64J SMmf. HAROLD S.. I Want to Quit Winnm (Prentice HaJJ. l
Englewood Cliffs. New Jersey, 1961). 11
(65) Sports IUustratt:d. "Calculated Risk.• February 6, 1961. pp. ,:j!
4. 5·
(66] STEEN. JOAN. "Exposing Crooked Gambler's Tricks." Popular
Science Monthly. January. 1962, pp. 61ft.
(67] THORP. EDwARD o.. "Fortune's Formula: The Game of
Blackjack." Notlca of the Anwlaua Mlllhemallctzl Soclety.
December, 196o. pp.
List of Figures and Tables
97 ·
Table 3 Playefs Advantage 'Standing OD Varioas
Totals 193
:;i
1'
i[
'I
l
Table 7.1 Using the High-Low Index to Draw or Stand Tele 48 Dealer's Up Cird Is Tea 195
with .Bard Hands g8 Table 4b Dealer's Up card Is N"mo 196 !
·Tablo 7.2. Using the High-Low IncJox to Draw or Stand Table 4C Dealer's Up Carella Eight 197
with Soft Hands gS Table 4d Dealer's Up Card Is Scvea 191 )
}'
Table 7·3 Hard Doubling Down with tho High-Low Table 40 Dealer"s Up Card Is Silt 199
g8 Table 4f Dealer's Up Card Is F11o 200
.Table 7-4 Soft Doubling Down with the High-Low Table 4g Doaler"s Up Card Is Four 201
98 Table 4h Dea1er's Up Card Ia Tme 203
Table 7.S Using the High-Low Index to Split Pairs 98 Table 4i Dealer"s Up Card Is Two 203
-Tablo 7.6 Advantage and Frequency of Favorable Tablo 4) Dealer's Up card Is N» 204
Situations 101
Tablo 8.1 Approximate Player Advantage iD the Ten-
Count Strategy 104
Table 8.2 A CoDservatlvc Betting Scheme for the Ten-
Count Strategy Jo6
Tablo 8.3 The Tea-Count Strategy, Based on the Value
of the Ratio When a Rulming Count of the
Cards Is .Kept
Tablo 8-4 A First ·Approximation to the Ten-Count
Strategy no
Table S.s Frequency of Favorable Situations Arising
iD the Tea-Count Strategy 117
Table 9.1 'The Effect of tho (rcmporary) Las Vegas
. Rules Cbauges
!"'
I
---- ...._.--.- ......
Index·
:"SIS
'--
,
.. '(t:tJmtnud) Gaadas'Conlrot Bt!afd.&ite of. UfB magazine, ·..m; ·82. t6C- Paper JVUte techrdque ·for·\tla.
119
· of secoad dealiDg. 149- Nevada, VIi, 146, 148, .. 166 Ding. 92, 14(). 16io-1U.
150 . 165' Little dark-haired p.y, GS, 121, Pascal, Blaise, 180
hard sixteen against an Ace. casinos closed by foF cheating. 123. 176 Patbaad. 90
loss in standing with, 35- 146 . Pearson, Karl; 180
36 Goren point count, S M,Mr.,78-91 Per:feaser stoppers. 9 fn
epUUing a pair of Sixes against Greasy John, 174 · Macao, blackjack fit, !30 Player who aever busts, advaa-
a Five. gain from. 37-38 Green Felt Jungle, 142, 165 McDermott. James P. (see Bald- . tage of. 39-40
wiD, Roger R.) Players. number of, 8, 83
P,Mr.,176 Hard hand, 10 MacDouaaU. Michael (Mickey), affects rre,uency
of favorable
[.
Harold's Club, 65, 19 vii, 1S7I 158 situations, 56
mistress of. 176 Harrah's Club, Lake Tahoe, 69 Mafia, 142 Poincar6, Henri. 180 t
Fall Joint Computer Conference, Harvey's Wagon Wheel, 69 Maisel, Herbert (see Baldwin, Point count (see aimpto point I'
1963, 513-94, 164-169, Head on, 45 Roger R.) count, complete poin& '
I
179 High-Low strategy (see complete Manila, bJactjaak in, 130 count)
FaYOI'8ble situations, basis for point count) Marked cards cheating) Point count. systems, 75-76
wiDDing strategies, 44-47 Hit,ll Martingale. Small. 42 Poisson, SimCoo., 180
example where player must bard 17, 84 Mimiekiog the dealer, . player Poker, 182 .
.,;:.
_____
strategy)
TCDI strategy, 6, 101-123 · Y, Mr., 60-74, 144
. Aces. iDcludlas in count, 1J9..
120 z.
Mr., 175-176