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Modelos Probabilisticos
Modelos Probabilisticos
AÑO
1926
ESTACIÓN VENTANILLA
1600.0
ES
1927 1200.0 1800
1928 720.0
1929 669.0 1600
1930 580.1
1931 572.1 1400
1932 502.1
1933 500.0 1200
1934 483.6
1000
1935 427.5
1936 360.5
800
1937 350.1
1938 349.1 600
1939 331.0
1940 325.1 400
1941 320.1
1942 303.8 200
1943 293.7
1944 273.2 0
1945 266.2 26 928 9 30 932 9 34 936 9 38 940
1946 264.4 19 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
1947 251.5
1948 250.2
1949 221.2
1950 205.2
1951 197.3
1952 188.1
1953 187.2
1954 183.1
1955 180.1
1956 175.0
1957 170.8
1958 169.5
1959 160.3
1960 159.9
1961 146.3
1962 146.1
1963 146.0
1964 145.3
1965 137.8
1966 132.9
1967 128.5
1968 119.3
1969 118.5
1970 100.2
1971 96.9
1972 90.3
1973 53.1
1974 45.5
1975 44.3
CUENCA JEQUETEPEQUE
ESTACIÓN HIDROMETRICA
ESTACION
VENTANILLA
AÑO Q(M3/S)
1926 1600
1927 1200
1928 720
1929 669
1930 580.1
1931 572.1
1932 502.1
1933 500
1934 483.6
1935 427.5
1936 360.5
1937 350.1
1938 349.1
1939 331
1940 325.1
1941 320.1
1942 303.8
1943 293.7
1944 273.2
1945 266.2
1946 264.4
1947 251.5
1948 250.2
1949 221.2
1950 205.2
ESTACIÓN VENTANILLA
30 932 9 34 936 9 38 940 9 42 944 946 9 48 95 0 952 9 54 9 56 958 9 60 96 2 964 966 9 68 970 9 72 974
19 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
HISTOGRAMA
0.60
0.10 z=
- y=
0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600 1800
x (Caudales) y=
y=
histograma de los y
y=
0.60
x=
0.50
x=
0.40
0.30
0.20
0.10
-
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
y = ln x
300.84 MEDIA 5.4202
280.03 DESV.EST. 0.7429
C.ASIMETRIA 0.2041
ero conocer el caudal para Tr = 100 años, Si quiero conocer el caudal para Tr = 25 años,
2.32634787 z = 1.7506861
m+z s y=m+z s
7.1484 y= 6.7207
ln (x) y= ln (x)
e (y) x= e (y)
1272.1 x= 829.4
caudal para Tr = 25 años, Si quiero conocer el caudal para Tr = 50 años,
z = 2.0537489
y=m+z s
y= 6.9459
y= ln (x)
x= e (y)
x= 1038.9
audal para Tr = 50 años,
ORM.ESTAND.INV(0,98)
37 * 0.7429
ANALISIS CON DISTRIBUCION LOG - NORMAL DE 3 PARAMETROS
AÑO Q Q ORDENADOS y = ln (x-a) F(x) f(x)
1926 1600.0 1600.0 7.38564 0.99676 0.01408
1927 1200.0 1200.0 7.10057 0.98964 0.03946
1928 720.0 720.0 6.59667 0.94406 0.16182
0.60
1929 669.0 669.0 6.52452 0.93139 0.18976
1930 580.1 580.1 6.38478 0.90072 0.25057 0.50
1931 572.1 572.1 6.37119 0.89727 0.25688
0.40
1932 502.1 502.1 6.24369 0.86063 0.31848
1933 500.0 500.0 6.23960 0.85932 0.32051 0.30
1934 483.6 483.6 6.20708 0.84864 0.33667
0.20
1935 427.5 427.5 6.08712 0.80467 0.39612
1936 360.5 360.5 5.92199 0.73284 0.47206 0.10
1937 350.1 350.1 5.89372 0.71933 0.48371
-
1938 349.1 349.1 5.89096 0.71799 0.48482 3
1939 331.0 331.0 5.83963 0.69259 0.50450
1940 325.1 325.1 5.82231 0.68380 0.51069
1941 320.1 320.1 5.80740 0.67615 0.51583
1942 303.8 303.8 5.75717 0.64983 0.53172
1943 293.7 293.7 5.72474 0.63243 0.54075
1944 273.2 273.2 5.65548 0.59441 0.55649 0.70
0.50
z=
LN3; C.A.=0
y=
0.70
0.60 y=
0.50
y=
0.40
0.30 y=
0.20
x-a=
0.10
- x-a=
3 4 5 6 7 8
x=
x=
Si quiero conocer el
sabiendo que Tr = 1
--> Pexc = 1 / 100 =
--> Pno exc = 1-P ex
z = f ( Pe
z=
y=
y=
y=
y=
x-a=
x-a=
x=
x=
Si quiero conocer el
sabiendo que Tr = 1
z = f ( Pe
z=
y=
y=
y=
y=
x-a=
x-a=
x=
x=
MEDIA 300.84
DESV.EST. 280.03
MEDIA 5.4202
DESV.EST. 0.7429
C.ASIMETRIA 0.2041
Si quiero conocer el caudal para Tr = 100 años,
=DISTR.NORM.ESTAND.INV(0,99)
2.32634787
m+z s
ln (x - a) C.ASIMETRIA 3.55E-01
e (y)
1223.97365
1223.9737 - 12.6525
1211.3
=DISTR.NORM.ESTAND.INV(0,98)
2.05374891
m+z s
6.9199
ln (x - a)
e (y)
1012.24994
1012.2499 - 12.6525
999.6
=DISTR.NORM.ESTAND.INV(0,99)
1.75068607
m+z s
ln (x - a)
e (y)
819.569046
819.569 - 12.6525
806.9
ANALISIS CON DISTRIBUCION GUMBEL
Var. Reducida
AÑO Q Q ORDENADOS y = (x - u)/a Tr
1926 1600.0 1600.0 5.93 377.95
1927 1200.0 1200.0 4.28 72.41
1928 720.0 720.0 2.29 10.34 1800
1929 669.0 669.0 2.07 8.47
1930 580.1 580.1 1.71 6.02 1600 f(x) = 275.100
Q (m3/s))
1931 572.1 572.1 1.67 5.84 R² = 0.988342
1400
1932 502.1 502.1 1.38 4.51
1933 500.0 500.0 1.37 4.47 1200
1934 483.6 483.6 1.31 4.21
1000
1935 427.5 427.5 1.07 3.45
1936 360.5 360.5 0.80 2.75 800
1937 350.1 350.1 0.75 2.66
600
1938 349.1 349.1 0.75 2.65
1939 331.0 331.0 0.67 2.50 400
1940 325.1 325.1 0.65 2.46
1941 320.1 320.1 0.63 2.42 200
1942 303.8 303.8 0.56 2.30 0
1943 293.7 293.7 0.52 2.23 1
1944 273.2 273.2 0.43 2.10
1945 266.2 266.2 0.40 2.05
1946 264.4 264.4 0.40 2.04
1947 251.5 251.5 0.34 1.97
1948 250.2 250.2 0.34 1.96
1949 221.2 221.2 0.22 1.81
1950 205.2 205.2 0.15 1.73
1951 197.3 197.3 0.12 1.70
1952 188.1 188.1 0.08 1.66
1953 187.2 187.2 0.08 1.66
1954 183.1 183.1 0.06 1.64
1955 180.1 180.1 0.05 1.63
1956 175.0 175.0 0.03 1.61
1957 170.8 170.8 0.01 1.59
1958 169.5 169.5 0.00 1.59
1959 160.3 160.3 (0.03) 1.55
1960 159.9 159.9 (0.04) 1.55
1961 146.3 146.3 (0.09) 1.50
1962 146.1 146.1 (0.09) 1.50
1963 146.0 146.0 (0.09) 1.50
1964 145.3 145.3 (0.10) 1.50
1965 137.8 137.8 (0.13) 1.47
1966 132.9 132.9 (0.15) 1.46
1967 128.5 128.5 (0.17) 1.44
1968 119.3 119.3 (0.20) 1.42
1969 118.5 118.5 (0.21) 1.41
1970 100.2 100.2 (0.28) 1.36
1971 96.9 96.9 (0.30) 1.35
1972 90.3 90.3 (0.32) 1.33
1973 53.1 53.1 (0.48) 1.25
1974 45.5 45.5 (0.51) 1.23
1975 44.3 44.3 (0.51) 1.23
F (x
n = número de dat 50
yn medio = 0.5485
Sn = 1.1607
parámetros, según n
a = Sx / Sn = 241.26
u = x-yn*a= 168.51
1800
1600 f(x) = 275.100543334431 ln(x) + 49.4485064334367
Q (m3/s))
R² = 0.988342807757821
1400
1200
1000
800
600
400
200
0
1 10 100 1,000
Tr (AÑOS)
1800.0
1400.0
Q (m3/seg)
1200.0
1000.0
800.0
600.0
400.0
200.0
0.0
1.00 10.00 100.00 1,000.00
Tr (Años)
400.0
200.0
0.0
1.00 10.00 100.00 1,000.00
Tr (Años)
P exc = F (x > X)
e y 1 x−u
F (x X ) 1 e y=
Tr a
Si quiero conocer el caudal para Tr = 100 años, Si quiero conocer el caudal para Tr = 50a
-y = -4.6001492 -y = -3.901938658
y = 4.6001492 y = 3.9019386579
y= x-u y= x-u
a a
x= u + a.y x= u + a.y
x= 1278.3 x= 1109.9
1,000.00
1,000.00
sabiendo que:
1 - e(-e(-y))= 0.04
e(-e(-y))= 0.96
-e(-y)= -0.040822
e(-y)= 0.040822
-y = -3.198534
y = 3.1985343
y= x-u
a
x= u + a.y
x= 940.2
VALORES GUMBEL
Media reducida Yn
n 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
10 0.4952 0.4996 0.5035 0.5070 0.5100 0.5128 0.5157 0.5181 0.5202 0.5220
20 0.5230 0.5252 0.5268 0.5283 0.5296 0.5309 0.5320 0.5332 0.5343 0.5353
30 0.5362 0.5371 0.5380 0.5388 0.5396 0.5402 0.5410 0.5418 0.5424 0.5430
40 0.5436 0.5442 0.5448 0.5453 0.5458 0.5463 0.5468 0.5473 0.5477 0.5481
50 0.5485 0.5489 0.5493 0.5497 0.5501 0.5504 0.5508 0.5511 0.5515 0.5518
60 0.5521 0.5524 0.5527 0.5530 0.5533 0.5535 0.5538 0.5540 0.5543 0.5545
70 0.5548 0.5550 0.5552 0.5555 0.5557 0.5559 0.5561 0.5563 0.5565 0.5567
80 0.5569 0.5570 0.5572 0.5574 0.5576 0.5578 0.5580 0.5581 0.5583 0.5585
90 0.5586 0.5587 0.5589 0.5591 0.5592 0.5593 0.5595 0.5596 0.5598 0.5599
100 0.5600
n 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
10 0.9496 0.9676 0.9833 0.9971 1.0095 1.0206 1.0316 1.0411 1.0493 1.0565
20 1.0628 1.0696 1.0754 1.0811 1.0864 1.0915 1.0961 1.1004 1.1047 1.1086
30 1.1124 1.1159 1.1193 1.2260 1.1255 1.1285 1.1313 1.1339 1.1363 1.3880
40 1.1413 1.1430 1.1458 1.1480 1.1499 1.1519 1.1538 1.1557 1.1574 1.1590
50 1.1607 1.1623 1.1638 1.1658 1.1667 1.1681 1.1696 1.1708 1.1721 1.1734
60 1.1747 1.1759 1.1770 1.1782 1.1793 1.1803 1.1814 1.1824 1.1834 1.1844
70 1.1854 1.1863 1.1873 1.1881 1.1890 1.1898 1.1906 1.1915 1.1923 1.1930
80 1.1938 1.1945 1.1953 1.1959 1.1967 1.1973 1.1980 1.1987 1.1994 1.2001
90 1.2007 1.2013 1.2020 1.2026 1.2032 1.2038 1.2044 1.2049 1.2055 1.2060
100 1.2065
ANALISIS CON DISTRIBUCION GAMMA DE 2 PARAMETROS
AÑO Q DATOS ORDENADOS f(x) F(x)
1926 1600.0 1600.0 1.176E-05 9.969E-01
1927 1200.0 1200.0 5.218E-05 9.860E-01
1928 720.0 720.0 3.041E-04 9.172E-01
1929 669.0 669.0 3.657E-04 9.001E-01
1930 580.1 580.1 5.031E-04 8.618E-01
1931 572.1 572.1 5.177E-04 8.578E-01
1932 502.1 502.1 6.637E-04 8.166E-01
1933 500.0 500.0 6.687E-04 8.152E-01
1934 483.6 483.6 7.084E-04 8.039E-01
1935 427.5 427.5 8.620E-04 7.600E-01
1936 360.5 360.5 1.086E-03 6.950E-01
1937 350.1 350.1 1.125E-03 6.835E-01
1938 349.1 349.1 1.129E-03 6.824E-01
1939 331.0 331.0 1.200E-03 6.613E-01
1940 325.1 325.1 1.224E-03 6.542E-01
1941 320.1 320.1 1.245E-03 6.480E-01
1942 303.8 303.8 1.314E-03 6.271E-01
1943 293.7 293.7 1.359E-03 6.136E-01
1944 273.2 273.2 1.454E-03 5.848E-01
1945 266.2 266.2 1.488E-03 5.745E-01
1946 264.4 264.4 1.497E-03 5.718E-01
1947 251.5 251.5 1.560E-03 5.521E-01
1948 250.2 250.2 1.567E-03 5.501E-01
1949 221.2 221.2 1.718E-03 5.025E-01
1950 205.2 205.2 1.806E-03 4.743E-01
1951 197.3 197.3 1.850E-03 4.598E-01
1952 188.1 188.1 1.903E-03 4.426E-01
1953 187.2 187.2 1.908E-03 4.409E-01
1954 183.1 183.1 1.932E-03 4.330E-01
1955 180.1 180.1 1.949E-03 4.272E-01
1956 175.0 175.0 1.979E-03 4.172E-01
1957 170.8 170.8 2.003E-03 4.088E-01
1958 169.5 169.5 2.011E-03 4.062E-01
1959 160.3 160.3 2.066E-03 3.874E-01
1960 159.9 159.9 2.068E-03 3.866E-01
1961 146.3 146.3 2.149E-03 3.579E-01
1962 146.1 146.1 2.150E-03 3.575E-01
1963 146.0 146.0 2.151E-03 3.573E-01
1964 145.3 145.3 2.155E-03 3.558E-01
1965 137.8 137.8 2.200E-03 3.394E-01
1966 132.9 132.9 2.229E-03 3.286E-01
1967 128.5 128.5 2.255E-03 3.187E-01
1968 119.3 119.3 2.310E-03 2.977E-01
1969 118.5 118.5 2.314E-03 2.959E-01
1970 100.2 100.2 2.419E-03 2.526E-01
1971 96.9 96.9 2.438E-03 2.445E-01
1972 90.3 90.3 2.473E-03 2.283E-01
1973 53.1 53.1 2.628E-03 1.331E-01
1974 45.5 45.5 2.642E-03 1.131E-01
1975 44.3 44.3 2.644E-03 1.099E-01
(0.5892) 0.30
f(x
3.0E-03
2.5E-03
Parámetros:
Forma: x> 0 2.0E-03
1.0E-03
x = 1290.05917
6.0E-01
4.0E-01
2.0E-01
Si quiero conocer el caudal para Tr =50 años,
0.0E+00
sabiendo que Tr = 1 / Pno exc 0 200 400
x = 1104.13948
Si quiero conocer el caudal para Tr = 25 años,
x = 917.382302
f(x)
03
03
03
03
03
04
00
0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600 1800
F(x)
1.2E+00
1.0E+00
8.0E-01
6.0E-01
4.0E-01
2.0E-01
0.0E+00
0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600 1800
Valores de "K", para la distribución Pearson tipo III
Coeficiente de asimetría, g
-6 -4 -2 0 2
4
f(x) = − 0.0190533735741238 x³ + 0.0033863383557487 x² + 0.73159500479836 x + 2.30358307210031
R² = 0.999777398530349
Tr = 100
3
f(x) = − 0.0139955001744857 x³ − 0.0169498622206491 x² + 0.538798487971384 x + 2.0338847203964
R² = 0.99964710063594
coeficiente K
f(x) = − 0.00260676908289863 x³ − 0.0412508532207504 x² + 0.111322764797091 x + 1.27384143998382
R² = 0.998537586979501 1
f(x) = 0.00137667818669587 x³ − 0.0354644364950955 x² − 0.0476827658331005 x + 0.839099100010113
R² = 0.999254748870467
f(x) = 0.00407783132972068 x³ − 8.6057325391559E-18 x² − 0.169169395485973 x + 1.05222764652546E-17
R² = 0.999982929916464 0
-2
Tr = 1.01
-3
-4
1.0101 Polynomial (1.0101) 1.25 Polynomial (1.25)
Probabilidad de excedencia F(x) Diferencia Delta D
DATOS Empírica Normal LN2 LN3 Gumbel Gamma Normal LN2
1 1600.0 0.020 0.0000 0.004 0.003 0.003 0.003 0.01961 0.01540
2 1200.0 0.039 0.0007 0.012 0.010 0.014 0.014 0.03855 0.02692
3 720.0 0.059 0.0672 0.059 0.056 0.097 0.083 0.00839 0.00053
4 669.0 0.078 0.0943 0.072 0.069 0.118 0.100 0.01587 0.00647
5 580.1 0.098 0.1593 0.102 0.099 0.166 0.138 0.06128 0.00411
6 572.1 0.118 0.1664 0.106 0.103 0.171 0.142 0.04870 0.01213
7 502.1 0.137 0.2362 0.141 0.139 0.222 0.183 0.09890 0.00393
8 500.0 0.157 0.2385 0.142 0.141 0.224 0.185 0.08161 0.01441
9 483.6 0.176 0.2570 0.153 0.151 0.237 0.196 0.08052 0.02367
10 427.5 0.196 0.3255 0.195 0.195 0.290 0.240 0.12944 0.00077
11 360.5 0.216 0.4156 0.265 0.267 0.363 0.305 0.19996 0.04898
12 350.1 0.235 0.4302 0.278 0.281 0.376 0.316 0.19489 0.04243
13 349.1 0.255 0.4316 0.279 0.282 0.377 0.318 0.17668 0.02411
14 331.0 0.275 0.4571 0.304 0.307 0.399 0.339 0.18261 0.02908
15 325.1 0.294 0.4655 0.312 0.316 0.407 0.346 0.17136 0.01798
16 320.1 0.314 0.4726 0.320 0.324 0.413 0.352 0.15886 0.00580
17 303.8 0.333 0.4958 0.345 0.350 0.435 0.373 0.16245 0.01173
18 293.7 0.353 0.5102 0.362 0.368 0.449 0.386 0.15723 0.00904
19 273.2 0.373 0.5393 0.399 0.406 0.477 0.415 0.16676 0.02651
20 266.2 0.392 0.5492 0.413 0.419 0.487 0.425 0.15707 0.02045
21 264.4 0.412 0.5518 0.416 0.423 0.489 0.428 0.14000 0.00441
22 251.5 0.431 0.5699 0.443 0.450 0.508 0.448 0.13856 0.01123
23 250.2 0.451 0.5718 0.445 0.453 0.510 0.450 0.12077 0.00562
24 221.2 0.471 0.6119 0.511 0.520 0.552 0.498 0.14136 0.04076
25 205.2 0.490 0.6336 0.552 0.560 0.576 0.526 0.14345 0.06133
26 197.3 0.510 0.6442 0.572 0.581 0.588 0.540 0.13441 0.06255
27 188.1 0.529 0.6564 0.597 0.606 0.602 0.557 0.12697 0.06799
28 187.2 0.549 0.6576 0.600 0.608 0.604 0.559 0.10854 0.05088
29 183.1 0.569 0.6629 0.611 0.620 0.610 0.567 0.09430 0.04275
30 180.1 0.588 0.6668 0.620 0.628 0.614 0.573 0.07859 0.03164
31 175.0 0.608 0.6734 0.635 0.643 0.622 0.583 0.06558 0.02666
32 170.8 0.627 0.6788 0.647 0.655 0.629 0.591 0.05136 0.01928
33 169.5 0.647 0.6805 0.651 0.658 0.631 0.594 0.03341 0.00349
34 160.3 0.667 0.6921 0.678 0.685 0.645 0.613 0.02546 0.01126
35 159.9 0.686 0.6926 0.679 0.686 0.645 0.613 0.00635 0.00714
36 146.3 0.706 0.7095 0.721 0.727 0.666 0.642 0.00360 0.01482
37 146.1 0.725 0.7097 0.721 0.727 0.666 0.643 0.01576 0.00417
38 146.0 0.745 0.7098 0.722 0.728 0.666 0.643 0.03525 0.02346
39 145.3 0.765 0.7107 0.724 0.730 0.667 0.644 0.05400 0.04091
40 137.8 0.784 0.7198 0.747 0.752 0.679 0.661 0.06452 0.03718
41 132.9 0.804 0.7257 0.762 0.767 0.686 0.671 0.07827 0.04146
42 128.5 0.824 0.7309 0.776 0.781 0.693 0.681 0.09266 0.04729
43 119.3 0.843 0.7416 0.805 0.808 0.707 0.702 0.10154 0.03815
44 118.5 0.863 0.7425 0.807 0.810 0.708 0.704 0.12022 0.05527
45 100.2 0.882 0.7632 0.863 0.863 0.735 0.747 0.11920 0.01924
46 96.9 0.902 0.7668 0.873 0.872 0.740 0.755 0.13518 0.02921
47 90.3 0.922 0.7739 0.891 0.890 0.749 0.772 0.14764 0.03008
48 53.1 0.941 0.8118 0.974 0.969 0.801 0.867 0.12934 0.03319
49 45.5 0.961 0.8191 0.985 0.980 0.811 0.887 0.14171 0.02372
50 44.3 0.980 0.8202 0.986 0.981 0.812 0.890 0.16019 0.00546
0.19996 0.06799
Rechazada Aceptada
0.1923
Diferencia Delta D
LN3 Gumbel Gamma
0.01637 0.01696 0.01647
0.02885 0.02541 0.02522
0.00288 0.03786 0.02400
0.00982 0.03962 0.02143
0.00124 0.06802 0.04013
0.01492 0.05350 0.02460
0.00212 0.08464 0.04614
0.01619 0.06674 0.02793
0.02511 0.06083 0.01961
0.00075 0.09344 0.04392
0.05148 0.14747 0.08930
0.04538 0.14039 0.08119
0.02711 0.12200 0.06271
0.03290 0.12494 0.06417
0.02208 0.11287 0.05171
0.01013 0.09972 0.03827
0.01684 0.10158 0.03952
0.01462 0.09559 0.03341
0.03304 0.10434 0.04263
0.02729 0.09461 0.03332
0.01132 0.07756 0.01640
0.01866 0.07646 0.01651
0.00185 0.05873 0.00107
0.04907 0.08179 0.02694
0.06982 0.08618 0.03552
0.07103 0.07852 0.03036
0.07637 0.07287 0.02801
0.05924 0.05463 0.01012
0.05101 0.04126 0.00161
0.03982 0.02622 0.01540
0.03467 0.01438 0.02499
0.02711 0.00118 0.03624
0.01126 0.01645 0.05324
0.01853 0.02203 0.05409
0.00010 0.04103 0.07287
0.02100 0.03994 0.06381
0.00200 0.05925 0.08298
0.01731 0.07870 0.10238
0.03482 0.09725 0.12048
0.03184 0.10550 0.12376
0.03667 0.11771 0.13251
0.04303 0.13069 0.14225
0.03512 0.13652 0.14086
0.05235 0.15494 0.15862
0.01910 0.14755 0.13490
0.02960 0.16235 0.14650
0.03151 0.17242 0.14990
0.02811 0.14038 0.07431
0.01887 0.14996 0.07388
0.00069 0.16801 0.09032
0.07637 0.17242 0.15862
Aceptada Aceptada Aceptada
0.1923