PRACTICAL EXAMPLES: MMS/SEM-IY, 1. Overview of Project Management 1. Determine the trend of the following by using semi-average, ‘Year | 2001 | 2002 [2003 [2004 [2005 [2006 [2007 [2008 [2009 | 2010 Sales [18 [24 [26 [2833 [36 [40 [as [48 [30 2. Determine the trend of the following by using semi-average Year 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 [2017 Sales 10 2 4 16 15 20 3. Determine the trend value_of the following by using semi-average. Year ___| 2001 [2002 [2003 [2004 [2005 | 2006 [2007 [2008 | 2009 Demand [10 ]12_ [14 Jie [12 fas [is [22 [20 4. You are given the following information about the demand of product P of a Manufacturing company. Months _|Jan__| Feb | Mar | Apr [May [June [July [Aug | Sept | Oct | Nov Demand [100 [150 [200 [240 [180 [270 [300 [320 | 335 _|350 [375 a, Calculate 3 monthly Moving average. b. Calculate 4 monthly moving average. c. Calculate 4 monthly weighted moving averaged with weights as 4,3,2,1. The largest being for the most recent value. 5. Calculate 3 yearly and 5 yearly moving averages of the data Year [i [2 [3 [4 js [6 [7 [8 io [it 712 e saes[S [4 [5 [6 [5s [6 |7 |[s |6 [4 |s [6 6. From the following data, calculate a 4 years moving average. Year [1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 output [2021 [23 [22 fas 24 [2726 [2830 7. Assume that the marketing manager has the following sales data: Date Jan 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 | ‘Actual [46 34 33 60 58 39 4 Sales In order to predict the sales for the eighth days of January, the manager has to pick the number of observations for averaging purposes,8. Find the trend for the following series using a three year weighted moving average with weight: 1, 2 and 1 Year 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 Value [2 4 5 7 9 10 12 9. A firm uses simple exponential smoothing with a=0.1 forecast demand, The forecast for 1 week Feb. 2001 as 500 units, whereas actual demand turned out to be 450 units. 1). Forecast the demand for the week February 8. 2). Assume that actual demand during the week Feb. 8 turned out to be S05 units. Forecast the demand for the week Feb. 15, Continue forecasting through March 15, assuming that the subsequent demands were actually 516, 488,467,554 and 510 units. 10. The demand for a particular item during the 10 months of a year is given below. The ‘manager is considering how well the exponential smoothing serves as an appropriate picnic in forecasting the demand of this item. She is testing three values of the smoothing constant- 4=0.2, a=0.5 and a=0.8. You are required to calculate forecasted value using each of given a values assuming the initial forecast as 208 and Month [1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Demand [213 [201 [198 [207 [220 [232 _[210_[217 [212 [225 11. Using the following data on the demand of a product, calculate- 1. 3 monthly moving averages 2. Exponentially smoothed average. Assume ial forecast =250 and a=0.3. Month [1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Demand [252 [259 [258 [263 [262 [260 [258 [263 [270 [275 12, From the following data, calculate 3 and 4 year period of Moving Average. Also calculate 3 years Period of Weighted Moving Average with as 3:2:1, the largest weight being for most recent value, also give demand estimate for the year 2017. Year [2007 [2008 [2009 [2010 [201 [2012 [2013 [2014 [2015 [2016 Sales [160 [150/135 [125 [120 [us [10 [120 [120 | 140 +000 13. The past demand for 6 months is given of a product: Month H [2 3 a 3 6 Demand | 32 29 27 36 34 32 a. Calculate Mean Squared Error and sales for month 7 using Moving Average Method with period 3. b, Calculate Mean Absolute Deviation and estimated sales for month 7 using exponential smoothing method with smoothing constant 0.1, Assume forecast for month 2 as initial value of 32. c. Explain Mean Absolute Percentage ‘or as a measure of accuracy in forecasting,(MU - May 2018) 14. Following table shows the actual demand of refrigerators of over a period of past 7 weeks: (Week 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 [Demand [39 ag 40 45 38 4B 39 Using Exponential Smoothing Method (a=0.2), determine forecasted demand for 8 week. Also find MAD, MSE & MAPE. (MU-ATKT-Nov.2018) 15. Following data is available about at the actual sales quantities for the past 12 years. Year|t [2 [3 [4 [5s [6 [7 [8s [9 [io [i [2 Sales [75__[80_[98 [128 [137 [119 [102 [104 [100 [102 [82 [73 Find the forecast for the year 13 by fitting a straight-line trend using the method of least squares. (MU-ATKT-NOV-2019) 16, Following data is available about at the actual sales quantities for the past 12 years. Find out forecasted sales for 13" year using 3-years moving averages. Year|]! [2 [3 [4 [5 [6 |7 [8 |9 [10 [ [2 Sales [75_[80 [98 [128 [137 [119 [102 [104 [100 [102 [s2_ [73 (MU-ATKT-NOV-2019) 17. The sales of a certain product during a ten-years period have been as follows: Period | 1 2 3) 4s 6 7 8 9 10 Sales | 200 | 220 | 210 | 230 | 250 | 320 | 360 | 400 | 390 | 400 Using exponential smoothing method find the forecasta values of sales for all the years assuming the forecasted value for the first year as 200 and a =0.2. (MU-ATKT-NOV-2019) 18, Find the weighted 3 month moving average, where the weights are highest for the latest months and descend the order of 3,2, and 1 from the following table below gives the actual demand in units for the past 10 months. Month [1 [2 [3 [4 [5 [6 [7 [8 [9 10 Demand [50__[52 [54 [56 [56 [57 [60 [65 [66 [70 (MU-ATKT-NOV-2019)