Exponential Smoothing Analysis

Alpha = 0.1
Demand = 450
forecast =500

dt-ft-1=error
alpha* error correction
new forecast= F(t-1)+ alpha *error
Dt-1 Old Ft-1 correction New Forecast
Week Demand Forecast Forecast Error

1 450 500 -50 -5 495

2 505 495 10 1 496
3 516 496 20 2 498
4 488 498 -10 -1 497
5 467 497 -30 -3 494
6 554 494 60 6 500
7 510 500 10 1 501
 Alpha=0.3 forecst for month 1= 95
Actual Demand

Month 1 100 95
2 125
3 132
4 190
5 200
6 185
7 179
8 152
9 245
10 250
11 230
12 231 223.26