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QAM I (End term) Duration: 2 hours

Total Marks = 40
Instructions:

1. You need to show the steps/ reasons for your answers.

2. Marks will not be awarded without steps/ reasons.
3. This is open book, open notes exam.
4. You may use scientific calculators / excel sheet / any other software for doing the
calculations.
5. You need to type the answers in word document and submit the same. Kindly note
that hand written answers with submissions as scanned pdfs /jpeg formats of answer
scripts will not be accepted.
6. If not mentioned specifically, kindly consider significance level of any test as 5%.

Question 1 (Total Marks = 8):

An exit poll is trying to determine the percentage of votes to be received by a political party in two
different districts. The exit poll wants to prove that percentage of votes to be received in District
1 is more than the percentage of votes to be received in District 2. Consequently, a random sample
of 150 voters is collected from District 1 & another random sample of 200 voters is collected from
District 2. Out of the 150 voters in District 1, 100 people are likely to vote for the political party.
In the District 2, out of 200 voters, 100 people are likely to vote for the political party. The firm
that is conducting the exit poll is willing to allow maximum 5% Type I error.

(a) Based on the given data, what will be the final decision? (6 marks)

(b) What will be the p value in this testing process? (2 marks)

Question 2 (Total Marks = 17):

The firm conducting exit polls also considers the dispersion of votes to be received by the political
party across different districts in the northern region of the country. To estimate the dispersion in
the no of votes to be received, the firm collects data from 21 randomly selected districts in the
northern region. The sample standard deviation of votes to be received (from the collected data) is
found to be 950.

(a) Based on the provided information can you construct an interval such that the firm may
claim with 90% confidence that the interval will contain the population variance?
(5 marks)
(b) Suppose that the firm conducting the exit polls hires a poll expert who based on his
experience speculates that the standard deviation of votes to be received by the party by
considering different districts in northern region is 1000. Based on the sample data given
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above do you think that the speculation of the expert is correct? The significance level of
the test is 1%. (6 marks)
(c) The poll expert also believes that the standard deviation in the no of votes to be received
across districts in the northern region is same as that of the no of votes to be received across
districts in the southern region. To test this the data collected above for northern region is
used. Further, data collected from 25 southern districts reveal that the sample standard
deviation in votes is 920. Can you check if the belief of the poll expert is true? You may
use 5% significance level if required. (6 marks)

Note: The distribution of votes across districts in various regions of the country is normally
distributed.

Question 3 (Total Marks = 8):

The distribution of no of votes to be received by the party across districts in the northern, southern,
western and eastern regions of the country is to be studied. Four districts from eastern region, six
districts from southern region, five districts from northern region and four districts from western
region are sampled and data recorded.

Sl No Eastern Region Southern Region Northern Region Western

(Districts) (No of Votes in (No of Votes in (No of Votes in Region (No of
000s) 000s) 000s) Votes in 000s)

1 405 399 397 400

2 401 402 398 402

3 402 401 397 399

4 404 399 395 401

5 400 400

6 400

From the given data can you analyze and conclude if the average no of votes to be received by the
party across the four regions same or not? You need to use 1% significance level for your test. It
is also known that the standard deviation of votes (across districts) to be received across the four
regions are equal and also the distribution of votes across districts in each region follows a normal
distribution.

Question 4 (Total Marks = 7):

The average votes to be received by the party as calculated from sample of 40 districts in the
eastern region is 410 (in 000’s) whereas the same data calculated from sample of 35 districts in
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the western region is 425 (in 000’s). From the opinion of poll experts, it is also known that the
standard deviation (population) in votes to be received across districts in eastern region is 50 (in
000’s), whereas the same measure in western region is 60 (in 000’s). From the given information,
using significance level of 2% do you think that the average votes that will be received by the party
in western region will exceed the average votes to be received in the eastern region?