Introduction: The Russia armed forces launched the much media-speculated offensive against Ukraine on Thursday

morning on the orders of President Vladimir Putin, who said the goal of the operation was to demilitarise and “de-Nazify”
Ukraine.

The Russian leader claimed that military action was necessary to stop Ukrainian attacks on the two breakaway regions of
Donetsk and Lugansk, which Moscow recognised as sovereign states. On last Monday, President Vladimir Putin had claimed
that Russia could come under attack by Ukrainian far right government, unless their influence in the country is diminished.
He accused Western Nations of arming Kyiv against Russia.

it is very important that we turn the clock back to understand the Big Game behind this new conflict Eastern Europe finds
itself embroiled in.

Russia – an emerging energy giant:Post collapse of Union of Soviet Socialist Republics (USSR) in the early 1990s and
thereafter, many years of economic struggle and internal strife, the leadership of President Vladimir Putin finally ensured
that Russia is now seen as an energy giant becoming the world’s third-largest producer of oil and second-largest producer of
natural gas

Europe’s Over Reliance on Russia’s Energy Exports:

During President Biden’s meeting with the German Chancellor on February 07, 2022, the US and its allies were seen
stressing that they were united on the consequences should Russia actually invades Ukraine.
However, there was also a feeling prevailing that anti-US/UKinternal politics of the European Union (EU) as well as its
symbiotic relationship with Russia, may undercut this proclaimed solidarity. Number of Central European countries and
Germany in particular, who are largely dependent on Russia for its cheap energy needs and in turn competitive
manufacturing exports could, though silently, be reluctant to side with the US sanctions on Russia.

While Russia depends on revenue from Europe, the latter depends on supply of energy from Russia. Overall, Russia was
supplying about one-third of European natural gas consumption, used for heating in the winter as well as electricity
generation and industrial production. The EU also depends on Russia for more than one-quarter of its crude oil imports.
Russia had, thus, turned out as the largest single energy source for this bloc of Nations.
Due to this inter-dependence, imposing tougher sanctions on Russia is going to make a serious dent in its energy supplies
and thus eventually the dependent European countries will be the sufferers.

America’s Multiple Attempts at Curbing (Restricting) Russia – Europe Pipeline Projects from JFK to Reagan

Post the second World War, both the USSR and the US started to lock horns while trying to expand their hegemony to
influence countries and get them into their fold who were not formally aligned with either superpower.
The Soviet Union began to extend favourable trade deals and offered other economic assistance to not only Warsaw Pact
countries, but also reached out to other countries such as Finland, the United Arab Republic as also India in a manner that
created sustained dependence on Soviet Union. Thus, as the Soviet Union began developing oil and gas pipelines to Europe,
the resultant increasing energy dependence on it by Nations in the region became a matter of great concern for US.

Energy Security – An Effective Foreign Policy Tool

Unlike his predecessors who refrained from shutting off energy exports, President Vladimir Putin smartly merged his
economic policy with geopolitical objectives. For example, Ukraine continued to receive the same heavily subsidised gas
shipments from Russia in the early 2000s as it did when it was part of the Soviet Union a decade earlier. However, when the
“Orange Revolution” near the end of 2004 led to the ouster (law) of a pro-Russian leader, replacing him with one who
sought closer ties with the West, the Russian Gas corporation, Gazprom immediately demanded Ukraine to pay full market
rates for its gas.

However, when Ukraine refused to comply, Russia restricted the flow of gas through the pipelines leaving just enough to
fulfil its contracts with other countries in Western Europe. This move by Russia, besides putting economic pressure on the
pro-Western government in Kyiv, was also used as the basis for claims that Ukraine was an unreliable gas transit country.
This narrative thus, helped build support for a new pipeline named Nord Stream which directly channelled gas from
Russia to Germany.
The Nord Stream pipeline carries natural gas from Northwest Russia through the Baltic Sea directly to Germany with the
pipeline handling one-third of all Russian gas exports to Europe.

The Crisis in Ukraine – An American Attempt at Stopping Nord Stream 2

Now Nord Stream 2, which is an expansion of the original Nord Stream pipeline, was approved by the German government
in 2018 and its construction was completed in September 2021. Its launch, however, faced regulatory delays due to pressure
from the US on European politicians.

Once functional, Nord Stream 2 would have ensured higher levels of export of Russia’s natural gas to Germany bypassing
Ukraine and Ukraine and other current countries through which the pipelines currently transit. This had added to US worries
as Russia would perhaps no longer could be held hostage by pro-West countries such as Poland and Ukraine of Eastern
Europe for its energy exports.

A Small Window of Opportunity – for the US and Ukraine

The operationalization of the pipeline in Nord Stream2, thus, would have been devastating for Ukraine. In fact, to
summarise, Nord Stream 2 is seen as Russia’s most daring attempt to break up the EU. Russia has always been making
efforts to form an alliance with Germany and Austria as also with Netherlands and Belgium against Eastern and Northern
Europe.

With the completion of the construction of Nord Stream 2 in September 2021, US realized that it had only a small window of
opportunity before the pipeline got operationalized and it loses the EU’s energy markets completely to Russian influence.
Russia would no longer need Ukrainian transit pipelines to meet nearly 80 percent of its European energy supply obligations.
And thus, America would lose a trump card it had held since 2014 when the Obama administration staged (played)a coup
(revolution) d’état and installed a pro-West far-right militiarun regime in Kyiv in a completely unconstitutional election
process.

The Real Intent Behind the ongoing Manoeuvres

As to what these “bold manoeuvres” maybe, one can only make a guess from the actions by Russia and the US rather than
their words. With Moscow declaring separatist regions of Luhansk and Donetsk as being recognised as independent
countries, Russia believes that Kyiv has been planning to use this window of opportunity to mount a military offensive to
retake these separatist regions and unilaterally try to break the agreements made under the Minsk Accord.

Russian troops thus, moved into the Donbass region on 24 th February to deter Kyiv from launching an offensive against the
breakaway states. The Russian military also carried out a series of precision strikes taking out Ukrainian military
infrastructure and air defence systems.