The Traditional Form of the

Life Table 41

TABLE 3.1a

0 10,000
97,408
2 97,259
3 97,160
4 97,082

109
110 0

The basic advantage of the traditional form of the life table is its suscepti-
bility to interpretation. If we view o = 100,000 as a hypothetical cohort
group of new-borm lives, then each value of represents the survivors of
that group to age x, according to the model. This is a convenient, determin
istic, interpretation of the model. Of course, since e = lo S(r), and S(x) is
probability, then e is the ekpected number of survivors to agex out ofan
ctiginal grouý of to nèw-borns This connection between S(x) and , is also
giveninChapter I of Jordan [41], and in Chapter 3 of Bowers, et al. [12].
The distinction between Str) and i s sufficiently subtle to justify a
second look at them. We first recognize that mathematically the two func-
tions are identical. They embody the same information. The basic difference
between them lies in their interpretation. Sx) is a probability function, and
therefore, has a probabilistic interpretation. , is interpreted as a number of
persons living at age x (out of an original cohort of o), and thus has both a
probabilistic and a deterministic interpretation.
Although the basic representation of the tabular survival model is in
terms of the values of E, it is customary for the table to also show the value
of several other functions derived from . We define

d= - +1 (3.2)
or, more generally
(3.3)
Since , represents the size of the cohort at age x, and +n.is the number of
them still surviving at age xtn, then clearlyd; gives thè iiimber who die
betweenages i and x+n. (This portrayal of number dying might be the
reason for the frequent historical reference to these models as mortality
tables.) Furthermore.
42 The Life Table

(3.4)
or, more generally,

(3.5)

gives the conditional probability of death, given alive at age x. Finally, we

have

nP:=1-ng: = = (3.6)

as the conditional probability of surviving to age x+n, given alive at age x.

With n = 1, we have the special case

P. = (3.7)
Recall that the conditional probabilities nP, and ,gx were defined in
Section 2.4 in terms of S(x). The consistency of those definitions with the
ones presented in this section is easily seen since ly is simply Eo S(x). We
redefined p and nqx in terms of , here simply to
complete our description
of the life table.

EXAMPLE 3.2 From Table 3.la, find (a) the number who die between
ages 2 and 4; (b) the probability that a life age l will survive to age 4.

SOLUTION
(a) This is given by 2dh = e2 - la = 17.

(b) This is given by 3p: = =

99665. (Compare with part (b) of Example
3.1.)

3.3 OTHER FUNCTIONS DERIVED FROM E

Although a life table only presents values of & for certain (say, integral)
values of x, we wish to adopt the view that the l, function which produces
these values is a continuous and differentiable function. In other words, we
assume that a continuous and differentiable function exists, but only
certain values ofit are presented in the survival model. The reason we make
this assumption is that there are several other mortality functions which can
be derived from if & is continuous and differentiable.
Other Functions Derived from e, 43

t values of , are known only at integral x, the question of how to

evaluale these additional functions then arises, and the usual way to
accompli_h this evaluation is to make an assumption about the form of
between adjacent integral values ofx. (Recall that we earlier referred to the
assumptions of a form for S(x) as mortality distribution assumptions.)
In this section we will derive these several new functions from &
symbolically, assuming& to be continuous and differentiable. In Section
3.5 we will discuss the common mortality distribution assumptions, and
show how they allow us to evaluate the functions of this section from a table
of&values at integralx only. We will also interpret these mortality distri-
bution assumptions in terms of both , and S(x).

3.3.1 The Force of Mortality

The derivative of , can be interpreted as the absolute instantaneous annual

rate of change of t. Since , represents the number of persons alive at age
x, then the derivative, which is the annual rate at which , is changing, gives
the annual rate at which people are dying at agex. This derivative is negative
since , is a decreasing function. To obtain the absolute magnitude of this
instantaneous rate of death, we will use the negative of the derivative. Final
the of the derivative the of , itself, we
y, Since magnitude depends on size
obtain the relative instantaneous rate of death by dividing the negative
derivative of e, by l, itself. Thus we have

(3.8)
which we call the force of mortality at age x. Now since ly = lo S(x), then
we see that (3.8) is the same as

A) = S)= (3.9)

Thus the hazard rate and the force of mortality are identical.
Ifwe multiply both sides of Equation (2.11) by lo, replace with x,
and substitute 4, for A(y), we obtain

'A

e, = lo S(r) = lg exp
(3.10)
44 The Life Table

in the life table context, S(x) = sPo = exp- Jo, dy can be interpreted as
decremental factor which reduces the initial cohort of size o to size l, at
age x

By a simple variable change we can write Equation (3.8) as

xts (3.8a)
a form in which the force of mortality will be
frequently expressed.
EXAMPLE 3.3| Show that the force of mortality is the limiting value of
the probability of death over an interval. divided by the interval length (in
years), as the interval length approaches zero.

SOLUTION Consider first a one-year interval, with q -

Then consid-
er a half-year interval with 2= 2 . Now, in general, consider
=
Ar A and show that Ar-o
lim Ar
= H. We have

lim A

by Equation (3.8).
3.3.2 The Probability Density Function ofX

With the force of mortality, which is the same as the hazard

rate, now de-
fined, the next function to develop from (, is the PDF of the
random variable X. (Remember that we wish to
age-at-death
show that the life. table is.a
representation of the distribution of this random variable.)
From Equation (2.7) we have f(r) =
context, we have A(T) = 4y and S(r) = l/l%. Thus we have
A(X) S(x).
In the life table

Sx) =
H-(l/lo) =
Potr, X20. (3.11)
Since, from (3.8), = -

ez4r, then dividing both sides by lo gives

Po Poux (3.12)
Other Functions Derived from 45

EXAMPLE 3.4| Show that f)dx= 1

SOLUTION Since f() = ^Po4r, we have P o 4 , dx = sPofrom
(3.12). Thus we have oPo - po =1, sinceopo = I and Po = 0.

With the PDF in hand, we can now find E[X], which we recall is de-
noted by êo. (Throughout this and the following section, all expectations are
assumied to exist.) We have

EX)= x flx) d = XPo4 dx. (3.13)

Integration by parts produces the alternative formula

& ELX) =
Pod = ,dx. (3.14)

If we define

To (3.15)
then we have
o =EX] = (3.16)

The function To is a special case of T, defined by

T 4, dy. (3.17)

This function T, is very important. We will encounter it again, and in Sec

tion 3.3.5 we will give an interpretation ofit.
The second moment of X is found froin

EX') = Jo xxPouy dx. (3.18)

Integration by parts produces 2 J s p odr = d From

Equation (3.17).
(3.19)
46 The Life Table

by the fundamental theorem of calculus, so f,d , Then integrating

byparts Jo d,we obtainJ 1,dr (sincetheterm
evaluates to zero at both limits) We define

Yo 1,d. (320)

obtaining
2 Yo (.21)

Finally, from (3.21) and (3.16). we have

Var(X) ELN* -{ELX=2

Co (3.22)

3.3.3 Conditional Probabilities and Densities

We have already discussed the conditional probabilities nP, and ,4. in terms
of both Sx) and E,.
Another conditional probability of some interest is denoted by
nimf
lt represents the probability that a person known to be alive at age x will die
between ages xt+n and x+nt+m. In terms of the formal probability notation
of Chapter 2, nlmgs = Pr [(xt+n) < X < (r+n+m)| X> x}. This can also be
expressed as the probability that a person age x will survive n vears, but then
die within the next m years. This way of stating the probability suggests that
we can write

mpm4 nPs m9xt (3.23)

Here mx+n is the conditional probability of dying between ages xtn and
x+n+m, given alive at age x+n. In turn, nps is the conditional probability of
surviving toage xt1, given alive at age x. Their product
gives the proba-
bility of dying between ages x+n andx+n+m, given alive at age x. In terms
of y, we have, from (3.6) and (3.5).

Img t .tn
x+n (3.24)
EXAMPLE 3.5| Show that aln4 nd 4 mpr, and give an interpretation
of this result.

SOLUTION Since, from (3.3), mdsn= +nr+ntm, then (3.24) be-

n1tntm
comes nim nPntmPSince nPr is the probability of
Surviving to age rtn, we can think of it as containing the probability of
Surviving to any age beyond x+n. Ifwe remove from ,p, the probability of
Surviving lo x+ntm, which is ntmPx, we have the probability ofsurviving to
X+n, but not to r+nt which
m, is nla4
Next we wish to explore the conditional PDF for death at age y,
given alive at age x (y> x). From (2.39), we know this conditional PDF is
SO1X> x)
So1X> r) =
= ) Now from (3.11) we have fy) = i yhy, and from

(3.1) we have S(r) lo Thus

SO1X>x) = (3.25)

Letting S=y-X, so y =
X+s, we have

Ss1X> r) =
sPsks (3.26)
where the random variable S denotes the length of future lifetime of a person
alive at age x. The conditional PDF given by (3.26) is a very useful function
for developing other results.
If both numerator and denominator of (3.8a) are divided by e, we
obtain

sPx 3.27)
which shows that

-sPx4- (3.28)

The expected future lifetime of a person alive at age r is given by

8,= ES) = SsP+sds= sP ds, (3.29)

Jo
48 The Life Table

Snce, in the integration by parts, P.+s d s = P (from (3.28), and

Pevaluates tozero at both limits. Furthermore, sP so (3.29)

becames

ds (3.30)

from (3.17).
By steps parallel to those leading from (3.18) to (3.21), we find

ES] = (3.31)
where

T,dy (3.32)

Finally, from (3.31) and (3.30), we have

Var(8) Es*)-{Ets]}= 2 -() (3.33)

EXAMPLE 3.6| A survival model is defined by = ,x20.

10.000 LDe-
termine Var (X|X > x), where X is the age-at-death random variable.

SOLUTION We recognize that the age-at-death random variable X and the

future-lifetime random variable S are related by X = x+S, where x is a
constant. Thus, Va:(XJX> x) = Var(S|X> x). From (3.33) this variance

isgiven by Thus we first find

TJ , dy =
10,000 (+1) dy =
5000(x+1)
and

Y, =
7,dy
dy=5000 (y+1)dy =
5000(r+1)T

Then Var XIX > ) - +1)2

(+13 2(x+ 1)-3