TA3201 Geostatistics for Resources Modeling

Theory of Regionalized
Variables
Introduction
• It has been known two methods for statistical analysis of mineral
deposit characterization: classical statistics and spatial statistics.
• Classical statistical is used to define the properties of sample
values with assumption that sample values is realization of random
variables.
• Samples composition/support is relatively ignored, and assumed
that all sample values in the mineral deposit have the same
probability to be picked up.
• The presence of trends and ore shoots in mineralization zones is
not considered.
• The fact in earth sciences shows that two samples taken in vicinity
gives the similar value compared to the ones in further distance.
• In spatial statistics, the sample values are assumed to be
realizations of random function.
• In this hypothesis, sample values is function of their locations in
deposit and their relative position is considered in analysis.
• The similarity of sample values which is function of the samples
distance is the basics theory in spatial statistics.
• In order to define how closely the spatial correlation among points
in deposit, we must know the structural function which is
represented by variogram model.
• Defining variogram model is the first step in spatial statistics
(geostatistics) analysis  most critical work!
• Principally, the calculation in geostatistics needs computer
assistance.
• GAMV is a program packet for variogram calculation, while
KB2D and KT3D are program packets for 2D and 3D kriging
application. Both packets are included in GSLIB (Geostatistical
Software Library, by Deutsch and Journel, 1998).
• SGeMS (Stanford Geostatistical Earth Modeling Software, by
Remy, 2004) is public domain or open source software packet for
3D geostatistical modeling.
 What is geostatistics?

(1930 – 2000)

Prof. Matheron (1950): Geostatistics

has been defined as "the application
of probabilistic methods to
regionalized variables", which
designate any function displayed in
a real space.
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Application of geostatistics in mining

1. Estimating the total reserves

2. Error estimates
3. Optimal sample (or drilling) spacing
4. Estimating block reserves
5. Gridding and contour mapping
6. Simulating a deposit to evaluate a proposed mine plan
7. Estimating the recovery
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Regionalized Variables
• A variable is regionalized when it is distributed in space and characterize
a certain phenomena, i.e. metal grade in mineralization zone.
• Mathematically, regionalized variable {f(x)} is realization value of
random function {F(x)} located in each points x in space.
• Commonly in any kind of deposits, characteristics or variability of
spatial structure of regionalized variables is known by locally erratic
aspect (i.e. the presence of higher and lower grade zones).
• Samples taken in the higher grade zones will have higher average values
compared to the ones taken in the lower grade zones, so that the value of
regionalized variable f(x) depends on the position or location in space x.
• But commonly (in average) the value of regionalized variable will show
structurally aspect with a certain function  area of influence,
anisotropy, etc.
(Source: Armstrong, 1998)
1. Concept of Random Function
• Random variable z(x) is variable which has certain numerical value based
on the certain probability distribution, i.e.: variable related to drillhole,
z(xi), has location or position on point xi.
• Random function Z(x) is collection of all random variables z(x) in deposit
or {Z(x), x  deposit}.
• Regionalized variable f(x) can be considered as the realization of random
variable z(x).

The definition of random function is related to the random aspect and

structural regionalized variable as:
a. Locally on point xi, z(xi) is random variable.
b. Z(x) is a random function for each collection of points xi and xi+h, while
random variables z(xi) and z(xi+h) themselves are not random function.
Generally z(xi) and z(xi+h) are independent, but both are connected by
position/spatial structure of regionalized variable f(x).
2. Hypothesis on Regionalized Variable and Variogram
Because of the presence of erratic aspect on regionalized variable,
the direct analysis on this one should not be performed, therefore
some hypothesis are necessary.

a. Matemathical Expectation (First Moment Order)

Mathematical expectation is defined as character or value which is
representative of a population, i.e. mean.
If distribution of random function Z(x) has expectation, it is
function of x defined as:

E{Z(x)} = m(x) x (1)

b. Second Moment Order
There are three second moments order which are considered in
geostatistical analysis:
1. Variance of Z(x)
Variance is defined as the expectation around m(x):

Var{Z(x)} = E[{Z(x) – m(x)}2] x (2)

Variance is also function of x.

2. Covariance
Covariance of z(xi) and z(xi+h) are:

C(xi, xi+h) = E [Z(xi).Z(xi+h)] - m(x)2 (3)

3. Semivariogram
Semivariogram function is defined as variance of increment or
variance of the difference values between {z(xi) – z(xi+h)}:

2 x i , x ih   Var [zx i   zx ih ] (4a)

Practically is written as:

N
2 h    zx i   zx i  h  / Nh 
2
(4b)
i 1

N(h) is the number of data pairs, while h is factor of the average

distance among samples location (lag).
c. Stationarity Hypothesis
• This hypotesis exist from the definition that covariance and
semivariogram functions depends simultaneously on two points
support xi dan xi+h.
• Variable is said to be stationary if its distribution is “invariant under
translation”.
• A stationary random function is “homogeneous” and “self-repeating in
space”, i.e. in the increment of h, distribution of Z(x1), Z(x2), …, Z(xk)
is the same as distribution of Z(x1+h), Z(x2+h), … Z(xk+h).
• Stationarity requires all mathematical moments are “invariant under
translation”, but commonly this condition is not easy to be fulfilled
because of the limitation of experimental data, so that only the two first
moments (mean and variance) are assumed to be constant.
• This hypothesis is considered weak, so that there is other hypothesis:
“second order stationarity”  expectation value (mean) of Z(x) must
be constant for all values of x.
not-stationary

stationary
d. Second Order Stationarity
A random function is said having second order stationarity if:

1. The mathematical expectation E{Z(x)} exist and not depends on

the support point of x:

E{Z(x)} = m(x) = m x (5)

2. For each pairs of random variables {z(x), z(x+h)} will present

covariance and depends on the distance h:

C(h) = E[{Z(x+h) – m} ∙ {Z(x) – m}]

= E{Z(x+h) ∙ Z(x)} – m.E{Z(x+h)} – m.E{Z(x)} + m2
= E{Z(x+h) ∙ Z(x)} – m2 – m2 + m2
C(h) = E{Z(x+h) ∙ Z(x)} – m2  x (6)
h defines vector coordinates (hu, hv, hw) in 3D space.
Stationarity of covariance  means the stationarity of variance
and variogram.

The following relationship can be determined from above

definition:
1. Var {Z(x)} = E [{Z(x) – m}2]
= E [Z(x) ∙Z(x)] – m2
= C(0) (7)

2. (h) = ½ Var[Z(x+h) – Z(x)]

= ½ E[{Z(x+h) – Z(x)}2]
= ½ E{Z(x+h)∙Z(x+h)} – E{Z(x+h)∙Z(x)}
+ ½ E{Z(x)∙Z(x)}
= E{Z(x)∙Z(x)} – E{Z(x+h)∙Z(x)} = {C(0) + m2}
– {C(h) + m2}
(h) = C(0) – C(h) (8)
• Practically the stationarity hypothesis is not easy to fulfill the
condition of a certain data distribution, in case it contains “trend”,
which the means can not be assumed to be constant for all points x
 to be “non-stationary” regionalized variable.

• Matheron (1963, 1965)  “intrinsic hypothesis”

e. Instrinsic Hypothesis
In this hypothesis, we assumed that the increment of random
function is weakly stationary, means that the mean and variance
of increment Z(x+h) – Z(x) exists and not depend on point x:

E[Z(x+h) – Z(x)] = 0 x (9)

and

Var[Z(x+h) – Z(x)] = E[{Z(x+h) – Z(x)}2] = 2 (h)  x (10)

Stationary regionalized variable will always fulfill instrinsic

hypothesis, but the opposite condition is not always valid.
If a regionalized variable is stationary, so that the variogram
((h)) and its covariance (C(h)) will be equivalent.
Review on Application of Geostatistics in the Coal Industry

• Armstrong (1989): coal industry has shown little interest in using

geostatistics compared to metallic mines, because of two factors:
1. The problems of estimation coal reserve are of secondary importance
compare to those of predicting continuity of the seam.
2. Traditional method obtained the reasonably accurate estimates, so the
coal companies felt no need for more sophisticated techniques.
• But, when the coal quality factors are concerned, coal companies take a
close look at their estimation procedures.
• The traditional reserve estimation methods give reasonably good
predictions of the insitu tonnage, but they are not accurate enough for
predicting quality variables on a short term basis, nor do they give any
estimate of how accurate their predictions are.
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• Except for sulphur content which is often erratic, the distribution of
coal variables are slightly and so there are relatively few problems
calculating and interpreting the experimental variogram.
Direction: 0.0 Tolerance: 90.0
1

(a) 0.9 (b) (c)

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0.8 35 1

0.7
0.8
0.6

Variogram

Semivariogram
0.5 0.6
47

0.4
108

0.3
44 0.4
102 85

0.2
0.2
0.1

0 0
0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000
DISTANCE (m) Distance (m)

• The geostatistical characteristics of coal may be constant within

one area, but they vary from are to area, as for example the figures
above are seam thickness variogram for: (a) Bowen Basin, (b)
Barito Basin, and (c) Tarakan Basin.
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• Wood (1976) and Sabourin (1975) examined that kriging works in
practice for coal as well as for metal, because kriging estimate was
consistently closer to the actual figures.
• Armstrong (1983) used the geostatistics to optimize the drilling
grids of coal data by calculating the estimation variance as a
function of the drillhole spacing and then find the spacing that just
gives the required precision.
• Geostatistical conditional simulations can be used to produce a
numerical model of the deposit which duplicates the statistical
characteristics of the coal insitu.
• Downstream of geostatistics and conditional simulations can help
mine planners to predict the characteristics of coal coming out of
the pit.

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