Gasto (X) Ventas (Y) X*Y X^2 Y^2 Y gorro (Y-Y gorro) (X-X barra)^2

23.33 99 2309.67 544.2889 9801 102.76258 14.156995 569.37459104

26.83 99.86 2679.2438 719.8489 9972.0196 106.65807 46.213711 414.59359104
24.72 101.39 2506.3608 611.0784 10279.932 104.30964 8.5243194 504.97152247
23.84 101.69 2424.2896 568.3456 10340.856 103.33021 2.6902777 545.29588818
27.34 103.53 2830.5102 747.4756 10718.461 107.2257 13.658162 394.08488818
25.47 106.76 2719.1772 648.7209 11397.698 105.14439 2.6101917 471.82666533
26.2 107.73 2822.526 686.44 11605.753 105.95688 3.1439587 440.64607104
30.15 109.27 3294.4905 909.0225 11939.933 110.35322 1.1733565 290.41515676
29.29 109.97 3221.0213 857.9041 12093.401 109.39604 0.3294317 320.46625961
31.07 110.2 3423.914 965.3449 12144.04 111.37717 1.3857357 259.90506533
32.96 112.26 3700.0896 1086.3616 12602.308 113.48074 1.4901977 202.53762533
31.51 112.99 3560.3149 992.8801 12766.74 111.86689 1.2613731 245.91168247
30.93 113.5 3510.555 956.6649 12882.25 111.22135 5.1922312 264.43870533
34.45 113.94 3925.233 1186.8025 12982.324 115.1391 1.4378447 162.34764247
32.75 114.51 3750.2025 1072.5625 13112.54 113.24701 1.5951508 208.55898533
32.93 115.12 3790.9016 1084.3849 13252.614 113.44735 2.7977693 203.39241961
32.53 118.4 3851.552 1058.2009 14018.56 113.00215 29.136807 214.96167676
32.15 118.57 3812.0255 1033.6225 14058.845 112.57921 35.889574 226.24887104
37.45 119.79 4486.1355 1402.5025 14349.644 118.47809 1.7211034 94.898213898
38.64 120 4636.8 1493.0496 14400 119.80256 0.0389834 73.129373898
38.76 121.53 4710.5028 1502.3376 14769.541 119.93612 2.5404618 71.091396755
37.73 121.77 4594.3821 1423.5529 14827.933 118.78973 8.8820046 89.521333898
37.72 121.97 4600.7084 1422.7984 14876.681 118.7786 10.185029 89.710665327
40.25 122.2 4918.55 1620.0625 14932.84 121.59448 0.3666515 48.185413898
38.85 122.26 4749.801 1509.3225 14947.508 120.03629 4.9448991 69.581813898
37.82 122.49 4632.5718 1430.3524 15003.8 118.8899 12.960716 87.826351041
42.53 122.57 5212.9021 1808.8009 15023.405 124.13211 2.4402031 21.730248184
38.2 123.14 4703.948 1459.24 15163.46 119.31284 14.64716 80.848356755
43.38 123.58 5360.9004 1881.8244 15272.016 125.07816 2.2444898 14.528076755
43.9 123.81 5435.259 1927.21 15328.916 125.65692 3.4111151 10.834442469
42.77 124.9 5341.973 1829.2729 15600.01 124.39923 0.2507664 19.550293898
47.48 124.98 5934.0504 2254.3504 15620 129.64145 21.729103 0.0831910408
47.68 125.04 5961.9072 2273.3824 15635 129.86405 23.271439 0.2385624694
44.61 125.16 5583.3876 1990.0521 15665.026 126.44715 1.6567502 6.6645110408
45.21 125.2 5660.292 2043.9441 15675.04 127.11495 3.6670186 3.9266253265
46.81 127.32 5959.8492 2191.1761 16210.382 128.89574 2.4829592 0.1455967551
47.66 128.13 6106.6758 2271.4756 16417.297 129.84179 2.9302182 0.2194253265
49.77 130.2 6480.054 2477.0529 16952.04 132.19021 3.9609401 6.648293898
51.8 130.61 6765.598 2683.24 17058.972 134.44959 14.742485 21.237613898
51.48 132.16 6803.5968 2650.1904 17466.266 134.09344 3.7381725 18.390619612
52.83 134.74 7118.3142 2791.0089 18154.868 135.59598 0.7327034 31.791876755
51.33 136.75 7019.3775 2634.7689 18700.563 133.92649 7.9722318 17.126591041
51.22 136.77 7005.3594 2623.4884 18706.033 133.80406 8.7968221 16.228236755
51.15 137.73 7044.8895 2616.3225 18969.553 133.72615 16.030843 15.669156755
 52.24 138.16 7217.4784 2729.0176 19088.186 134.93931 10.372825 25.486631041
54.68 138.33 7563.8844 2989.9024 19135.189 137.65502 0.4555914 56.076562469
56.23 138.69 7798.5387 3161.8129 19234.916 139.38017 0.4763343 81.693191041
56.32 140.22 7897.1904 3171.9424 19661.648 139.48034 0.5470977 83.328208184
55.48 140.39 7788.8372 3078.0304 19709.352 138.54542 3.4024672 68.698048184
59.73 140.49 8391.4677 3567.6729 19737.44 143.27566 7.7598916 157.21219104
59.7 140.73 8401.581 3564.09 19804.933 143.24227 6.311492 156.46078533
58.87 141.02 8301.8474 3465.6769 19886.64 142.31848 1.686053 136.3856939
57.53 141.28 8127.8384 3309.7009 19960.038 140.82707 0.2051497 106.88310533
62.58 141.49 8854.4442 3916.2564 20019.42 146.4477 24.578777 236.8037339
58.6 141.57 8296.002 3433.96 20042.065 142.01797 0.2006789 130.15224247
61.64 141.59 8727.6076 3799.4896 20047.728 145.40148 14.527394 208.75708818
65.96 146.34 9652.5864 4350.7216 21415.396 150.20963 14.974018 352.25391104
63.89 148.11 9462.7479 4081.9321 21936.572 147.90572 0.0417285 278.83751676
65.14 149.18 9717.5852 4243.2196 22254.672 149.29697 0.0136821 322.14608818
63.41 149.18 9459.5038 4020.8281 22254.672 147.37149 3.2707226 263.03742533
64.33 149.36 9608.3288 4138.3489 22308.41 148.39544 0.9303701 293.7257339
64.74 149.4 9672.156 4191.2676 22320.36 148.85177 0.3005543 307.94734533
65.12 149.58 9740.6496 4240.6144 22374.176 149.27471 0.0932017 321.42855104
67.47 150.13 10129.271 4552.2009 22539.017 151.89025 3.0984895 411.21466533
68.38 152.29 10413.59 4675.8244 23192.244 152.90308 0.3758667 448.94950533
65 152.58 9917.7 4225 23280.656 149.14115 11.825684 317.14012818
65.19 152.85 9964.2915 4249.7361 23363.123 149.35262 12.231666 323.94343104
68.95 155.23 10703.109 4754.1025 24096.353 153.53749 2.8645976 473.4292139
69.67 155.24 10815.571 4853.9089 24099.458 154.33885 0.8120796 505.27975104
67.08 155.51 10431.611 4499.7264 24183.36 151.45618 16.433424 395.54959104
3303.41 9052.43 442015.28 169205.71 1187642 9052.43 486.82219 13312.603927
Variables
La variable independiente es Gastos y la variable dependiente es Ventas.

Ventas (Y)
180
160
140 f(x) = 1.11299670101709 x + 76.7963652556162
120
100
Ventas

80
60
40
20
0
20 30 40 50 60 70 80
Gastos

Se evidencia una relación lineal entre las variables.

Covarianza 214.7375
Correlación 0.98556

La correlación es 0,98, es decir, existe una correlación positiva, es decir, existe una
dependencia lineal entre las variables gasto y ventas, es decir, cuando una de las
variables aumenta la otra variable aumenta en proporción constante.

𝛽 ̂_𝑜= 76.7963653
𝛽 ̂_1= 1.1129967

La ecuación de regresión es:

𝑦 ̂=76,976+1,113𝑥

El intercepto significa que suponiendo que la compañía realiza gasto 0 en publicidad obtendría ventas
por 76,98 millones aproximadamente.

La pendiente indica que por cada millón de pesos adicional las destinado a gasto publicitario, las ventas
se incrementan en 1,113 millones de pesos. La pendiente si tiene el signo esperando pues se espera
un incremento de las ventas por el gasto publicitario de acuerdo al comportamiento gráfico.

Coef. De determinación 0.9713

El 97,13% de la variabilidad de las ventas se explica por la variabilidad del modelo.

El modelo de regresión presenta un muy buen ajuste.
x= 40
y= 121.316233 millones

Si un comerciante invierte 40 millones en publicidad, obtendría ventas por 121,316 millones.

y= 230
x= 137.649676 millones

Si un comerciante obtuvo ventas por 230 millones, invirtió en publicidad 137,65 millones.

Intervalos de confianza para coeficientes

Intervalo de confianza para la pendiente

Bajo los supuestos del modelo lineal, entonces:

Error estándar 0.02318992

t(n-2) 1.99546893 Con una confianza del 95% el valor de la pendiente
1.067 1.159 estaría entre 1,067 y 1,159.

Intervalo de confianza para el intercepto

Bajo los supuestos del modelo lineal, entonces:

Error estándar 2.97311816

t(n-2) 1.99546893 Con una confianza del 95% el valor del intercepto
70.864 82.729 estaría entre 70,864 y 82,729.

Prueba de hipótesis para la pendiente (B=0, con alfa=0,05)

Ho: B=0
Ha:B ≠ 0

T 47.99485

Valores críticos -1.9955 1.9955

Se acepta Ho si VC1<=T<=VC2

Como el estadístico de prueba cae por fuera de la zona de aceptación se dice que
no existe evidencia muestral suficiente para sugerir que la pendiente es igual a 0
con una significancia de 5%, es decir, se demuestra dependencia lineal.
Normalidad y homocedasticidad

Normalidad de los Residuos QQ Plot Gasto (X) Gráfico d

1.2
8

1 6

4
Porcentaje acum real

0.8
2

Residuos
0.6
0
20 30 40
0.4 -2

-4
0.2
-6
0
0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1 1.2 -8
Porcentaje acum teórico Ga

Se observa que los residuos siguen una distribución normal pues los Los residuos se comportan muy s
puntos siguen una tendencia lineal aproximada por lo que se cumple el recta de regresión, se comportan
supuesto de normalidad de los residuos. eje horizontal, por lo que se cum

Análisis de los residuales Resultados de datos de probabilidad

ObservaciónPronóstico Ventas (Y)

Residuos
Residuos estándares Percentil Ventas (Y)
1 102.762578 -3.76257829 -1.41652716 0.71428571 99
2 106.658067 -6.79806674 -2.55932114 2.14285714 99.86
3 104.309644 -2.9196437 -1.09918101 3.57142857 101.39
4 103.330207 -1.64020661 -0.61750136 5 101.69
5 107.225695 -3.69569506 -1.39134711 6.42857143 103.53
6 105.144391 1.61560877 0.60824082 7.85714286 106.76
7 105.956879 1.77312118 0.66754074 9.28571429 107.73
8 110.353216 -1.08321579 -0.40780669 10.7142857 109.27
9 109.396039 0.57396137 0.21608371 12.1428571 109.97
10 111.377173 -1.17717276 -0.4431794 13.5714286 110.2
11 113.480737 -1.22073652 -0.45958019 15 112.26
12 111.866891 1.1231087 0.42282548 16.4285714 112.99
13 111.221353 2.27864678 0.8578599 17.8571429 113.5
14 115.139102 -1.19910161 -0.45143512 19.2857143 113.94
15 113.247007 1.26299279 0.47548873 20.7142857 114.51
16 113.447347 1.67265338 0.62971685 22.1428571 115.12
17 113.002148 5.39785206 2.03217141 23.5714286 118.4
18 112.579209 5.99079081 2.25539968 25 118.57
19 118.478092 1.31190829 0.49390433 26.4285714 119.79
20 119.802558 0.19744222 0.07433261 27.8571429 120
21 119.936117 1.59388261 0.6000614 29.2857143 121.53
22 118.789731 2.98026922 1.12200517 30.7142857 121.77
23 118.778601 3.19139918 1.20149091 32.1428571 121.97
24 121.594482 0.60551753 0.2279639 33.5714286 122.2
25 120.036287 2.22371291 0.83717852 35 122.26
26 118.8899 3.60009951 1.35535751 36.4285714 122.49
27 124.132115 -1.56211495 -0.58810158 37.8571429 122.57
28 119.312839 3.82716077 1.44084103 39.2857143 123.14
29 125.078162 -1.49816215 -0.56402477 40.7142857 123.58
30 125.65692 -1.84692043 -0.69532452 42.1428571 123.81
31 124.399234 0.50076584 0.18852722 43.5714286 124.9
32 129.641449 -4.66144862 -1.75493188 45 124.98
33 129.864048 -4.82404796 -1.81614692 46.4285714 125.04
34 126.447148 -1.28714809 -0.48458267 47.8571429 125.16
35 127.114946 -1.91494611 -0.72093468 49.2857143 125.2
36 128.895741 -1.57574083 -0.59323143 50.7142857 127.32
37 129.841788 -1.71178803 -0.64445017 52.1428571 128.13
38 132.190211 -1.99021107 -0.74927026 53.5714286 130.2
39 134.449594 -3.83959437 -1.445522 55 130.61
40 134.093435 -1.93343542 -0.7278955 56.4285714 132.16
41 135.595981 -0.85598097 -0.32225782 57.8571429 134.74
42 133.926486 2.82351408 1.06299034 59.2857143 136.75
43 133.804056 2.96594372 1.11661194 60.7142857 136.77
44 133.726147 4.00385349 1.50736191 62.1428571 137.73
45 134.939313 3.22068708 1.21251716 63.5714286 138.16
46 137.655025 0.67497513 0.25411315 65 138.33
47 139.38017 -0.69016975 -0.25983358 66.4285714 138.69
48 139.480339 0.73966054 0.27846577 67.8571429 140.22
49 138.545422 1.84457777 0.69444256 69.2857143 140.39
50 143.275658 -2.78565821 -1.04873845 70.7142857 140.49
51 143.242268 -2.51226831 -0.94581322 72.1428571 140.73
52 142.318481 -1.29848104 -0.48884927 73.5714286 141.02
53 140.827065 0.45293453 0.17051979 75 141.28
54 146.447699 -4.95769881 -1.86646349 76.4285714 141.49
55 142.017972 -0.44797194 -0.16865148 77.8571429 141.57
56 145.401482 -3.81148191 -1.43493829 79.2857143 141.59
57 150.209628 -3.86962765 -1.45682887 80.7142857 146.34
58 147.905724 0.20427552 0.07690519 82.1428571 148.11
59 149.29697 -0.11697036 -0.04403674 83.5714286 149.18
60 147.371486 1.80851393 0.68086533 85 149.18
61 148.395443 0.96455697 0.36313428 86.4285714 149.36
62 148.851772 0.54822832 0.20639579 87.8571429 149.4
63 149.27471 0.30528957 0.11493474 89.2857143 149.58
64 151.890253 -1.76025267 -0.66269604 90.7142857 150.13
65 152.90308 -0.61307967 -0.23081088 92.1428571 152.29
66 149.141151 3.43884918 1.29465034 93.5714286 152.58
67 149.35262 3.49737981 1.31668582 95 152.85
68 153.537488 1.69251221 0.63719326 96.4285714 155.23
69 154.338845 0.90115458 0.33926469 97.8571429 155.24
70 151.456184 4.05381604 1.5261717 99.2857143 155.51
asto (X) Gráfico de los residuales Gasto (X) Curva de regresión ajustad
180
160
140
120
100

Ventas (Y)
Ventas (Y)
80 Pronóstico
30 40 50 60 70 80
60
40
20
0
20 30 40 50 60 70 80
Gasto (X) Gasto (X)

iduos se comportan muy similar por encima y por debajo de la

e regresión, se comportan de manera aleatoria alrededor del
rizontal, por lo que se cumple el supuesto de homocedasticidad.

Media Resid 9.744586E-15

Desv Resid 2.656199187

Porcentaje
Residuos Posición acum real Porcentaje tePorcentaje acum real
-6.79806674 1 0.00714286 0.00524384 0.00714286
-4.95769881 2 0.02142857 0.03098827 0.02142857
-4.82404796 3 0.03571429 0.03467392 0.03571429
-4.66144862 4 0.05 0.03963548 0.05
-3.86962765 5 0.06428571 0.07258181 0.06428571
-3.83959437 6 0.07857143 0.07415566 0.07857143
-3.81148191 7 0.09285714 0.07565234 0.09285714
-3.76257829 8 0.10714286 0.07831061 0.10714286
-3.69569506 9 0.12142857 0.0820601 0.12142857
-2.9196437 10 0.13571429 0.13584456 0.13571429
-2.78565821 11 0.15 0.14714926 0.15
-2.51226831 12 0.16428571 0.17212193 0.16428571
-1.99021107 13 0.17857143 0.22684716 0.17857143
-1.93343542 14 0.19285714 0.23333878 0.19285714
-1.91494611 15 0.20714286 0.23547485 0.20714286
-1.84692043 16 0.22142857 0.24342597 0.22142857
-1.76025267 17 0.23571429 0.25376262 0.23571429
-1.71178803 18 0.25 0.25964178 0.25
-1.64020661 19 0.26428571 0.26845204 0.26428571
-1.57574083 20 0.27857143 0.27651314 0.27857143
-1.56211495 21 0.29285714 0.27823205 0.29285714
-1.49816215 22 0.30714286 0.28636864 0.30714286
-1.29848104 23 0.32142857 0.31247421 0.32142857
-1.28714809 24 0.33571429 0.31398621 0.33571429
-1.22073652 25 0.35 0.32290879 0.35
-1.19910161 26 0.36428571 0.32583799 0.36428571
-1.17717276 27 0.37857143 0.32881799 0.37857143
-1.08321579 28 0.39285714 0.3417078 0.39285714
-0.85598097 29 0.40714286 0.37362869 0.40714286
-0.69016975 30 0.42142857 0.39749607 0.42142857
-0.61307967 31 0.43571429 0.40873086 0.43571429
-0.44797194 32 0.45 0.43303539 0.45
-0.11697036 33 0.46428571 0.48243756 0.46428571
0.19744222 34 0.47857143 0.52962713 0.47857143
0.20427552 35 0.49285714 0.53065052 0.49285714
0.30528957 36 0.50714286 0.54575158 0.50714286
0.45293453 37 0.52142857 0.56769932 0.52142857
0.50076584 38 0.53571429 0.57476831 0.53571429
0.54822832 39 0.55 0.58175912 0.55
0.57396137 40 0.56428571 0.58553875 0.56428571
0.60551753 41 0.57857143 0.59016285 0.57857143
0.67497513 42 0.59285714 0.60029593 0.59285714
0.73966054 43 0.60714286 0.60967258 0.60714286
0.90115458 44 0.62142857 0.63279483 0.62142857
0.96455697 45 0.63571429 0.64174771 0.63571429
1.1231087 46 0.65 0.6637887 0.65
1.26299279 47 0.66428571 0.68278067 0.66428571
1.31190829 48 0.67857143 0.68931313 0.67857143
1.59388261 49 0.69285714 0.72576734 0.69285714
1.61560877 50 0.70714286 0.72848612 0.70714286
1.67265338 51 0.72142857 0.73556007 0.72142857
1.69251221 52 0.73571429 0.73800052 0.73571429
1.77312118 53 0.75 0.7477866 0.75
1.80851393 54 0.76428571 0.75202165 0.76428571
1.84457777 55 0.77857143 0.75629765 0.77857143
2.22371291 56 0.79285714 0.79875389 0.79285714
2.27864678 57 0.80714286 0.80451509 0.80714286
2.82351408 58 0.82142857 0.85610683 0.82142857
2.96594372 59 0.83571429 0.86791986 0.83571429
2.98026922 60 0.85 0.86906988 0.85
3.19139918 61 0.86428571 0.88521959 0.86428571
3.22068708 62 0.87857143 0.88734276 0.87857143
3.43884918 63 0.89285714 0.90227956 0.89285714
3.49737981 64 0.90714286 0.90602802 0.90714286
3.60009951 65 0.92142857 0.91234816 0.92142857
3.82716077 66 0.93571429 0.9251852 0.93571429
4.00385349 67 0.95 0.93414104 0.95
4.05381604 68 0.96428571 0.93651645 0.96428571
5.39785206 69 0.97857143 0.97893185 0.97857143
5.99079081 70 0.99285714 0.98794587 0.99285714
e regresión ajustada

Ventas (Y)
Pronóstico Ventas (Y)

60 70 80