IEEE Transactions on Electrical Insulation Vol. 28 No.

5 , October 1993 755

Aging Phenomenology and Modeling

Gian Carlo Montanari

and Luciano Simoni

Istituto di Elettrotecnica Industriale,

Universita di Bologna, Italy

ABSTRACT
This paper reviews aging phenomenology and life modeling,
illustrates different approaches, showing their advantages and
applicability limits and raises problems relevant to practical
applications of models and evaluation of materials endurance.
It deals with the fundamentals of phenomenological aging the-
ory and life modeling, and shows a collection of electrical and
combined-stress life data for different materials. Electrical,
thermal and multistress life models are presented, valid for
insulating materials and systems showing either linear or curvi-
linear behavior. Particular attention is given to threshold-life
models under combined thermal-electrical stresses. General
aging equations for single and multiple stresses are presented,
and the life surface for combined thermal-electrical stresses is
introduced. Generalization to N stresses of life and aging mod-
els is discussed. Finally, statistical processing of data and de-
termination of model parameters are mentioned and graphical
methods for material characterization are proposed.

1. INTRODUCTION
EVERAL papers have been written in the last ten years
S dealing with aging phenomena in solid insulating ma-
terials and systems. Many life models, degradation mech-
anisms and life-test procedures have been proposed. De-
sign protocols are now available for insulating materials
and systems in use for several years, but introduction of
new insulating materials and the need to increase service
stresses in insulation of power apparatus ( e . g . cables for
energy transmission) and t o overcome unpredicted prob-
lems in service operation (e.g. water treeing) are forcing
new research in aging phenomenology and modeling.
This paper reviews aging phenomenology and life mod-
eling, illustrates different approaches, showing their ad-
vantages and applicability limits and highlights problems
relevant to practical applications of models and evalua-
tion of materials endurance.
2. PHENOMENOLOGICAL
AGING THEORY
C C O R D I N G to IEC and IEEE Standards [l],aging
A is defined as occurrence of irreversible, deleterious
changes in insulating materials or systems which affect
their serviceability, i.e. their ability t o satisfy requested
performances. Causes of aging are applied stresses and
factors of influence. Changes may affect chemical com-
position and physical properties. Hence, aging diagnosis
and evaluation can be realized by resorting to observation
of appropriately selected properties, which are sensitive
to aging deterioration.
These concepts can be translated into mathematical
language, for insulating materials, as follows. Referring
to applied stresses SI, Sz, . . . S N ,as the primary causes

0018-9367/93/ $3.00 @ 1993 IEEE

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- 1

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 75 6
of aging, the dependence of aging A , on the property p
selected t o evaluate aging can be written BS [2-61
A = F(P)
where p = P/Po is the observed (diagnostic) property in
relative terms (property P relative to the initial value, Po,
for the unaged insulation). A is a dimensionless quantity
and p must be related to failure, i.e. failure occurs when
p reaches a limiting value p ~ .
The authors believe that the definitions of ‘factor of in-
fluence’ and ‘aging factor’ in IEEE 1064 and IEC 505 are
misleading. The factor of influence is defined as ‘A specif-
ic physical (?) stress imposed by operation, environment
or test that influences the performance of an insulation
system or electrical equipment’, and aging factor is ‘a
factor of influence that causes aging’. The lists of fac-
tors of influence (IEC 63 Sec. 75 and IEEE 1064) include
applied stresses together with phenomena that influence
aging rate, but are a consequence of applied stresses, as
partial discharge and charge injection. In EPRI report
2986-4, May 1992, contaminants, crosslinking byprod-
ucts, cavities are also included among aging fa.ctors of
influence.
We think that primary and secondary causes of aging
should be distinguished. The former are applied stresses
which cannot be seen a.s factors of influence, while the lat-
ter are factors which are able to affect the aging rate, but
only when stresses are applied. A consistent definition of
aging factor should be, e.g. ‘factor imposed by operation,
environment, technology, or test that influences the per-
formance of an insulation system or electrical equipment
subjected to stresses’. According to these observations,
in the following general phenomenological theory of ag-
ing, only applied stresses are referred to and factors of
influence are not mentioned.
The aging rate R is given by
dA
R=-
dt
R can be assumed to depend only on stresses, not on time
t (this corresponds to a monotonic time variation of prop-
erty P , as often recorded, if one neglects an initial short
stabilization period). In particular, R can Se described
by an additive relationship when stresses are applied in
sequence and mutual interactions are not expected, while
more complex expressions (multiplicative, mixed) should
be used for simultaneous stresses, depending on the in-
tensity of interaction.
A simple solution for the integral of Equation (2) is
achieved under the assumption of constant amplitude of
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Montanari et al.: Aging Phenomenology and Modeling
applied stresses with time, that is
(1)
When p decays to a limiting value p~ below which the
insulation is unable to maintain serviceability, it is as-
sumed that failure occurs. At that moment, the aging
time becomes lifetime L , and Equation (3) gives
A L = F ( P L )= R ( S 1 , S z, . . . , S N ) L (4)
where A L is the aging limit or aging a t failure. Equa-
tion (3) can then be called the general aging equation,
and Equation (4) the general life equation.
If A L is a characteristic parameter for an insulation,
Equation (4) shows that life L and aging rate R are in-
versely proportional quantities. A L is then a characteris-
tic quantity allowing comparison between materials to be
realized [5-81. Indeed, by dividing ( 4 ) by (3), it follows
that
t
A = AL- (5)
L
which shows that, whatever the trend of the property, PI
the cumulative or total aging A varies linearly in time,
increasing from 0 to the maximum value A L for t = L .
For the same fraction t / L of consumed life, A is lower
for materials having low A L . Therefore, the definition
of aging permits a comparison of materials to be done.
If only the conditions of materials a t any aging time in
comparison with the initial ones are of interest, one can
use a simpler quantity, damage, defined as [9]
that is, the portion of consumed life. The remaining life
is obviously 1 - D, and the final value of D = 1. As
mentioned, the damage theory does not allow compari-
son between different materials, which must instead be
performed through the value of the aging a t failure A L .
From a geometrical point of view, Equation (3) and (4)
+
represent spaces in N 2 and N +
1 dimensions, respec-
tively [IO].
In the case of a single stress S that is only one stress
applied or prevailing over other stresses, the general aging
Equation (3) represents a surface in a three-dimensional
space with p , S and t as coordinates. A geometrical rep-
resentation of the general Equation (4) is given by the
intersection of this surface with the plane p = p ~the , fail-
ure plane. This intersection provides the life line (stress
S vs. life L ) . When two stresses, e.g. electrical and ther-
mal, are applied simultaneously (combined stresses), the
 IEEE Transactions on Electrical Insulation
general aging equation does not permit a visible repre-
sentation, because there are four variable quantities, i.e.
SI, Sz, p and t. The general life equation represents a
surface in a three-dimensional space, the axes of which
are SI, Sz and L. For S1 = 0 (or so low that it cannot
affect insulation life), the life line under stress S z , and
analogously, for Sz = 0, the life line under stress SI, are
obtained. This is the basis for the concept of compati-
bility, which is fundamental for life modeling (as will be
seen later).
The lines for L = const (which become surfaces for
three applied stresses) are also interesting, particularly
for evaluation of the service stresses; the line for L = L,,
where L , is the expected service life for a selected failure
percentile, can be obtained by intersecting the life sur-
face with plane L = L,. This curve gives the couples
(S1, Sz) which can be applied to obtain the life L , when
any other stress or factor of influence is absent. Plotting
of this curve is possible because the lines a t L = const for
long times approach each other and become very similar,
so that only one or two points of the line L = L , may
be sufficient to draw the line [6,11]. It must be empha-
sized that the shape of this line may allow evaluation of
the ability of materials to endure combined stresses; the
greater the curvature, the larger the (SI,Sz) area where
life is longer than L , and so the better the material be-
havior in combined stress conditions.
From the shape of the curve an index can thus be de-
rived, the stress-compatibility index (SCI), which pro-
vides an evaluation of the long-term material behavior
for combined stresses [ 7 , 8 , 111.
The picture reported above is simplified. Thermal tran-
sitions, different electrical aging mechanisms and envi-
ronmental conditions can occur in insulating materials or
systems, leading to nonmonotonic time variation of the
properties. Several factors of influence may be present,
able to accelerate the aging rate significantly for a given
combination of stresses (e.g. contaminants, cavities, pro-
trusions, additives, etc.). The complexity increases when
tests try to reproduce the real service conditions. In this
case, time-varying stresses ( e . g . overvoltage transients,
temperature cycles) and various factors of influence, as
well as actual environmental conditions, may have to be
considered. Moreover, failure is a phenomenon with a
stochastic nature; therefore, life inference and insulation
characterization require appropriate statistical tools.
However, the above model is useful to give a general
picture of the aging process and to point out the role of
the various quantities involved, as well as to introduce
criteria for life and aging investigation.
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Vol. 28 No. 5, October 1093 75 7
3. OVERVIEW OF LIFE
MODELS
ODELS for thermal, electrical and mechanical stress-
M es, singly applied, have been available for several
years. The so-called Arrhenius model for thermal stress
and the exponential and inverse-power models for eiectri-
cal and mechanical stresses are widely used [3,6,8,12-151.
The electrical models are essentially phenomenological,
even if the exponential law can be correlated to thermal-
ly or electrically activated processes, where an activation
energy provides an estimate of the insulation endurance
to applied stress. The above mentioned models are appli-
cable to stresses of constant amplitude; the correspond-
ing life lines are straight lines in appropriate coordinate
systems. Inverse-power and exponential models for pro-
gressive electrical stress (linearly increasing voltage) are
also available [16- 191. multistress life models have been
obtained first for electrical and thermal stresses simul-
taneously applied (combined thermal-electrical stresses).
They are derived from the Eyring model, originally pro-
posed for reaction rate under constant thermal stress [20].
The effect of application of electrical stress is taken in-
to account by introduction of two terms: the first low-
ers the free energy of the thermal degradation process,
and the second, of exponential type, multiplies the ther-
mal rate [21j. On this basis, phenomenological models
for combined thermal-electrical stresses, have been devel-
oped, where interactions of electrical and thermal stresses
are accounted for using a multiplicative law, in which the
combined-stress life (in relative terms with respect to a
reference life determined by the absence of electrical stress
and a t low temperature) is the product of the single-stress
lives, with however the introduction of a correction term
[6,22-261. These models are explained as functions of
electrical stress and temperature, so that they provide
the life surface, the intersections of which with constant-
stress planes give straight life lines in appropriate coordi-
nate systems.
An innovative test procedure and a corresponding life
model have also been proposed by the theory of equal-
ization of aging processes [27,28]. This theory is based
on application of the reaction rate theory to equalize the
rates of the predominant aging processes, with the pur-
pose of life prediction of materials or even insulation sys-
tems.
Other thermodynamic models for combined thermal-
electrical and thermal-mechanical stresses, still based on
the Eyring relationship, have been presented recently [29-
311. However, their parameters are not thoroughly ex-
plained as a function of temperature and electrical or
 758
mechanical stress, so that they do not provide life sur-
faces as the multistress models do, but only electrical or
thermal life lines a t each aging temperature. A feature
of these models is that they can describe both linear and
curvilinear life lines, the latter tending to infinite life as
electrical stress tends to 0.
Curvilinear electrical life models valid for combined
thermal electrical stresses and, particularly, threshold life
models, have been proposed for several years as an an-
swer to lots of data, relevant to various insulating mate-
rials and systems, which (in semilog or log-log plots) tend
to electrical threshold, i.e. to infinite life, a t low stresses
[23,32,33]. Some of these models have been based upon
the assumption of a particular failure mechanism [32,33],
but their parameters are not explained as a function of
temperature. Others are mostly characterized by a phe-
nomenological approach [8,23] (even if the Eyring model
remains the reference), and provide a thorough descrip-
tion of insulation multistress life which allows the life sur-
face to be drawn. This approach raises some important
questions for insulation multistress characterization, in
particular, model compatibility and establishes an organ-
ic tool for life inference for any number of simultaneously
applied stresses [6,10,11,34].
The question of whether or not insulating materials
do have electrical thresholds has been debated broadly,
but nowadays it is recognized that each insulation should
have a value of stress below which, in the absence of oth-
er stresses and factors of influence, aging does not occur,
then life becomes theoretically infinite. This considera-
tion is the starting point of the search for a unique model
of general validity, applicable to both linear or curvilinear
life lines [35].
The existence of electrical thresholds has physical [36,
371 and experimental support [17,23,32,38-451, while less
data are available for thermal thresholds [6,41,46,47]and
mechanical thresholds [48]. In fact, accelerated aging
tests, performed for a few thousands hours, are usual-
ly unable to reveal a tendency towards a threshold, un-
less the material has a low activation energy and a high
threshold temperature, which is not common.
However, curvature of the life lines for multistress con-
ditions may provide more evidence, because superimpo-
sition of stresses shortens life, making it possible to de-
termine in not too long times whether the life lines are
straight or curved. Therefore, a distinction between lin-
ear and threshold life models is normally related to purely
phenomenological considerations, i.e. the need to fit ex-
perimental d a t a which may indicate a linear or curvilinear
trend of the life line, often depending on the stress range
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Montanari et al.: Aging Phenomenology and Modeling
in which the tests have been carried out. It is signifi-
cant to observe that such a distinction involves important
practical consequences. If, indeed, the threshold value is
high enough to have a practical interest, the insulation
design should be based on it, whereas if this does not oc-
cur, the endurance coefficient, on which the slope of the
life line depends, becomes the main quantity to be taken
into account [49].
In the first case the insulation design is substantially
free of statistical and dimensional considerations, which
are essential when linear models are assumed valid even
for service stress extrapolation [50,51]. In fact, designing
below thresholds of applied stresses and factors of influ-
ence should ensure high insulation reliability, independent
of the insulation size [42,52,53].
A problem for life model application to experimental
results is the determination of the model parameters with
their confidence levels. It seems evident that the larger
the number of parameters, the better the ability of the
model to describe the material behavior, often complex
and extremely variable from one material to another and
according to the stress range. A model derives its va-
lidity and usefulness mainly from the ability to fit the
experimental data. However, this might not be true for
practical applications. In fact, failure is a stochastic pro-
cess and often data are associated with wide confidence
intervals. Moreover, uncertainty in parameter estimates
rapidly increases with their number, and mathematical
algorithms normally available for parameter estimation,
such as least square regression maximum or likelihood
[54-561, may give rise to convergence problems as the
number of the parameters increases [42,57]. Accuracy of
parameter estimates can be improved partially by increas-
ing the amount of d a t a available from aging tests (e.g. by
performing more life tests a t different stress levels, en-
larging sample sizes, reducing censoring degree) , but this
increases the cost of test cycles and might still not provide
accurate enough parameter values [58]. Therefore, the
model selection should be preceded by reasonable eval-
uation of experimental data, with the aim to choose the
appropriate stress ranges where the model can be applied.
The stress range selection has the purpose of making pos-
sible the reliable choice of the most appropriate model for
the available set of data, that is, the model providing the
best fit by the smallest number of parameters. The lowest
stress range limits should obviously be as close as possi-
ble to expected service conditions if extrapolation or, in
general, evaluation of the service stresses is the purpose
of the test cycle [57].
An overview of the more recent trends in aging and life
modeling should emphasize the fractal approach which
 IEEE Transactions on Electrical Insulation Vol. 28 No. 5, October lSg3 759

400

25 I \ 5
5
100

: 10 1 oL

Figure 1.
1 0’ 104 Llfr (I,.)
lc-i lo-’ 1

Figure 2.
lo 10’ lo3
Life ( h l
10‘
10

Electrical life curves of polyamide and PTFE (af- Electrical life curve in semilog and log-log for PET
ter [65])in semilog coordinates. film with surface discharges (after [SS]).
treats tree growth in polymers as a fractal phenomenon GO1
and tries to correlate fractal dimensions with physics and
statistics of treeing [36,59,60]. However, many steps may
have to be taken for the practical applications of fractal
theory to insulation aging or life characterization. Diag-
nostic tools for aging detection, particularly partial dis-
charge measurements and associated pattern recognition
systems (realized, e.g. by neural networks [61,62]), are
also being used to develop new criteria for degradation
and residual life evaluation [63,64].

4. SURVEYOF
EXPERIMENTAL RESULTS 0 I
I I 1

EFORE examining the various models proposed for in-

B sulation life, we present in this Section some of the
most significant experimental data reported in the liter-
ature.

Most of the d a t a are pertinent to electrical life a t room

or higher temperatures. The lines often are obtained by
linear interpolation of the experimental points in log-log
plot (log E vs log life), thereby assuming an inverse-power
law as electrical life law. In several cases, however, espe-
cially when the tests are prolonged for thousands of hours,
the electrical lines show a clear tendency towards horizon-
tality, evidence that the threshold stress has a practical
value.

This tendency appears even in old tests reported by

Olyphant [65], as shown in Figure 1 for polyamide and
polytetrafluoroethylene specimens. Dakin showed in 1971
[66] evidence of a threshold for polyethylene terephtha-
late ( P E T ) (Figure 2), and this led him to propose a
a threshold tendency after -
Hirose tested a polyimide film a t 180’C [42] and found
1000 h, with a value slightly
lower than 10% of the breakdown strength (Figure 5). In

- 1

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 760 Montanari et al.: Aging Phenomenology and Modeling

100

5c

- 22cc
I
-
Y

1(
Figure 6
Electrical life line of a cycloaliphatic epoxy resin,
in semilog and log-log plot. (after [6]) (Electric
stress is related to the initial electric strength).

1 E'Eso

1C 1c c 13oc
Life ihl

Figure 7.
Electrical life lines at different temperatures of
LD polyethylene in log-log coordinates (after [6]
(Electric stress is related to the initial electric
strength) .
E
I t I I J o
12 12

:.I
1 10 10'
Llfe i l l 1

Figure 5 .
Electrical life curve of polyimide film at 18O"C, in
semilog and log-log plot (after [42]).
this case, too, th: curve is S-shaped in log-log plot.
20 -
All the following results have been obtained in the au-
thor's Laboratory. In Figure 6 the electrical life line at 10
room temperature for a cycloaliphatic epoxy resin is re-
ported in both semi-log and log-log plot [6], giving again
evidence of the S-like shape in log-log plot, whereas the 10-1

first part of the curve is leveled with a linear ordinate Figure 8.

axis.
Figure 7 is for specimens of LDPE [6]: no threshold
appears, on the contrary the lines tend to take a down-
ward curvature with rising temperature. Figure 8 shows
the electrical lines a t four different temperatures for a
comDosite material (Dolvimide-PET-Dolvimide~1351. As
Electrical life lines at different temperatures of a
composite material in semilog plot (after [23,35]).
can be seen, the threshold value, high a t room tempera-
ture (more than 20% of the breakdown strength), rapidly
decays with temperature down to 0 a t the highest test
temDerature.

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 IEEE Transactions on Electrical Insulation V o l . 28 N o . 5 , O c t o b e r 1993 761

M . oc

I'
l1"llrs

5 0 , 000
I I:
10
4
It
2U,00(

10,00(

3
10 5,OGC

1.000

100

sow

10
IOU
10 50 100 150 200 250 OC

Figure 9.
10 20 GO 90 110 "'
tetiipcraLurc
Thermal life lines at different electrical stresses of
a bisphenolic epoxy resin (after [6,35]. Figure 10.
Thermal life lines at different electrical stresses of
The thermal endurance graph usually is reported by XLPE-insulated cable models (after [41,67]).
researchers as linear interpolation of the experimental
points in an Arrhenius plot. The d a t a refer always to
temperature acting alone, and the shifting from linearity
is rare in tests performed in accordance with the interna-
tional standards for thermal endurance characterization
of materials. When combined thermal-electrical tests are
carried out, the thermal lines with applied voltage are
generally curved. For example, Figure 9 exhibits several
curves a t various values of electrical stress for a bisphe-
nolic epoxy resin [6,35]. The lines show, even for not too
long times, a clear tendency towards a thermal threshold
when an electrical stress is superimposed. This might be
an indication of curvature even of the thermal endurance
graph (without electrical aging), but detectable only a t
absolutely impractical times. A similar trend of the ther- 10 sw 1000 104 Io5 hou:s
mal life lines (even though slightly complicated by an t';c fO failure

opposite curvature a t short times) is shown in Figure 10

for XLPE-insulated cable models.
Figures 11 and 12 are for the same cable models test-
ed a t constant voltage and temperature in air [41]. The
electrical life lines (Figure 11) are rather similar to those
reported in [40], even if the threshold values are a lit-
tle lower. Since tests a t temperatures > 9O'C were per-
formed, it has been possible to assess that the threshold
disappears above 1OO'C.
Figure 11.
Electrical life lines at different temperatures of
XLPE-insulated cable models in semilog plot (af-
ter [41, 671).
Figure 12 is very interesting. It shows the E-T curves
a t prefixed life, which exhibit strong downward curva-
ture for high temperatures. Two points of the threshold
line have been obtained experimentally, the point a t 11
kV/mm and room temperature, which corresponds to the

-- 1

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 762 Montanari et al.: Aging Phenomenology and Modeling

10

IS

12

10

"
10 50 60 90 100 110 130

tempcrsture

Figure 12.
E - T curves of XLPE-insulated cable models (af-
ter [4P,351). tcmpernturc

Figure 14.
E - T curves of EPR-insulated cable models (after [35]).
lation did not show threshold, on the contrary, like LDPE,
its electrical lines a t higher than room temperature (and
perhaps even a t room temperature a t very long times)
present a strong downward curvature (Figure 13). Fig-

-
ure 14 provides the E - T curves; the curve for lo5 h
(obtained by extrapolation) yields a SCI of 1.5.

5. SINGLE AND MULTISTRESS

LIFE MODELS
5.1 GENERAL PHENOMENOLOGICAL
>-;, I >:-2 ,:-, I ,' '
I
1'
1 I
102
=d,
- 7 2
1
- r d
Life ,*.I
I_ 1 !
12
MULTISTRESS MODELS
Figure 13.
Electrical life lines at different temperatures of a general approach to multistress life models let
EPR-insulated cable models in log-log coordi-
nates (after [35]).
F OR
us start from the experimental observation that si-
multaneously applied stresses normally produce a degra-
electrical threshold, and the point a t 100°C without elec- dation effect which is far greater than that obtained by
trical stress which can practically be considered the ther- the sum of the aging rates relevant to each stress, but
mal threshold. Starting from these two extreme points, slightly lower than that derived by a simple multiplica-
the line has been drawn easily with a shape similar to that tive law. Therefore, a correction term must be added [6,
of the long-term lines. The stress compatibility index is
- 1.3.
23,341 and the following general expression, valid for N
simultaneously applied stresses, is proposed [7,8]:
Figures 13 and 14 are relevant t o ethylene-propylene
rubber (EPR)
\ , insulated cable models 135.501. This insu- L I J

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 IEEE Transactions on Electrical Insulation
where L is the multistress life L1 . . . L N are single-stress
lives for stresses SI, . . . S N , respectively, Lo is the ref-
erence life (at a reference temperature, e,, and in the
absence of any other stress producing aging), and
G(S1, Sa,. . . S N ) is the correction function.
Equation (7) satisfies the requisites of generality and
compatibility, that is, holds for linear and curvilinear
(threshold) life models and provides multistress life for
any combination of stresses, hence single-stress life when
all the other stresses are zero or negligible. However, for
practical applications, the stress ranges should be select-
ed on the basis of experimental data and service require-
ments, in order t o identify the most appropriate single-
stress life models t o be used in Equation (7).
5.1.1 M O D E L S FOR ELECTRICAL A N D
T H E R M A L STRESSES
Linear models
Linear models normally used for electrical life are expo-
nential and inverse-power models, which provide straight
life lines in E - log L and log E - log L plots, respectively.
For single electrical stress a t temperature 8, (i.e. when
other stresses are absent or negligible), these models can
be written as [6,49]
-
L E = exp[-h(E - E,)]
LO
where E , is the value of electrical stress below which elec-
trical aging can be neglected and failure under multistress
conditions is the consequence of aging produced by the
other stresses [8,35,41,50,68], Lo is life for E = E , and
h and n are the voltage endurance coefficients for the ex-
ponential and inverse-power models, respectively. These
coefficients are the reciprocal of the life line slope; there-
fore, they constitute, in addition to a life value a t high
stress, a fundamental quantity for endurance characteri-
zation and design purposes when one of the above models
is held valid in the considered stress range (which possi-
bly should be enlarged down to the extrapolated service
stress).
The Arrhenius model is still widely used for thermal
life inference. It is usually written as
where AE is the activation energy of the degradation pro-
cess, k the Boltzmann constant and 8 the absolute (ther-
modynamic) temperature. L’ is life for 8 = CO. A more
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Vol. 28 No. 5, October 1993 763
convenient expression of the Arrhenius model is obtained
by assuming a reference temperature 8, inside the limits
of the model validity. If thermal aging can be neglect-
ed for any electrical stresses a t temperature do, thermal
stress can be defined as
and the Arrhenius relationship can be written as
LT
- = exp(-BT)
Lo
where B = A E / ~ and Lo is the life a t temperature Bo,
as said above. Equation (12) provides a straight line on
the logLT vs. T plot, B being its slope. Hence, B is a
fundamental parameter for thermal endurance character-
ization. In fact, IEC Standard 216 [69) recommend the
following figures to be presented: HIC (the halving inter-
val, related to B), TI (the temperature index), and TC
(the 95% lower confidence bound of T I ) .
Recently, the possible occurrence of the so-called com-
pensation effect in phenomena related to thermal aging
has been noted. The compensation effect has been ex-
plained as a linear dependence between activation en-
thalpy A H and entropy A S of a thermally-activated degra-
dation process [31,70]. Some researchers have found that
(8)
a similar effect relates the ordinate intercept to the slope
of the life line, with reference to different failure criteria
[71]. Taking into account this effect, Equation (12) would
change as follows [72,73]
(9)
LT
-
LO
= exp[-T(kl log L o + kz)] (13)
Once Equation (8) or (9) and (12) or (13) have been
inserted into the general Equation (7), the term G ( E , T )
must be identified. Compatibility requires, in general,
that the N dimensional life surface is able to describe any
( N - i) dimensional surface obtained when one or more
applied stresses become zero or negligible (i = 1, . . . N -
2).
In the case of combined thermal-electrical stresses, the
surface in three-dimensional space must provide the elec-
trical life line a t T = 0, and the thermal life line a t
E - E, = 0. Since
according t o the compatibility conditions L I L O = L E / L ,
for T = 0 (LT = L o ) and L / L o = L T / L , for E = E ,
( L E = L o ) ; thus, G = 1 in both cases [34]. The simplest
 764
expressions for G ( E , T ) which satisfy the above condi-
tions are
G ( E , T) = exp[b(E - E,)T] (15)
when the exponential electrical model of Equation (8) is
used in (7), or
for the inverse-power model, Equation (9).
Therefore, the resulting combined-stress life models are,
for exponential and inverse- power electrical life laws, re-
spectively [6,8,23,25,34]
L = L,exp[-h(E - E,) - BT + b(E - E,)T]
If Equation (17)is rewritten as
L = Lo exp{-[B - b(E - E , ) ] T }exp[-h(E - E,)] (19)
its derivation from the Eyring model in accordance with
the above mentioned approach [21] is apparent.
These models are characterized by four parameters, i.e.
h or n, L o , B and b, and provide the life surface shown
in Figure 15, valid for stress ranges where insulation life
can be described by linear relationships. The whole sur-
face, or part of it (depending on the limits of the model’s
validity) may be used for insulation characterization and
evaluation as well as for design purposes. To reach this
goal, the lines E - T a t constant life are particularly sig-
nificant, as already mentioned.
Threshold models
Insulation which shows evidence of a tendency towards
horizontality o f t h e life line a t test stresses close to service
conditions can be characterized by threshold models.
In the case of combined thermal-electrical stresses, com-
patibility requires that both electrical and thermal mod-
els are affected by the thresholds. A correspondence ex-
ists between electrical threshold and thermal threshold:
electrical threshold decreases from Et, a t temperature 0,
down to 0 a t temperature et,, and, correspondingly, ther-
mal threshold varies from T = 0 (e = e,) for E = Et, to
Tt, (e = et,) a t electrical stress E, [35].
Among the life threshold models which can be intro-
duced in general Equation (7), two can be obtained easily
from Equation (8) and (12) (or (13)), by dividing them
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Montanari et al.: Aging Phenomenology and Modeling
Figure 15.
Life surface under combined thermal-electrical
stresses for linear life models (after [SI).
(17) by nondimensional terms, DE and D T , which tend to 0
when E tends to Et, and 8 tends to et,, respectively [34].
The simplest expressions for these terms are
The corresponding single-stress models become
LE - exp[--h(E - E,)]
-- (22)
L o ( E - E,)/(Et, - E o ) - 1
which is the exponentia1 (ETM) (very
similar to that first proposed by Dakin [66,17,23]), and
LT - exp(-BT)
- - (23)
Lo (T/Tto) - 1
i.e. the Arrhenius threshold model (ATM).
Note that in these equations Lo loses the meaning of
life a t temperature 8, (which is infinite) and becomes
only a model parameter (roughly, it can be described as
the life that the material would have if its life line would
be linear instead of curved). Starting from models (22)
and (23), the following equation for combined stresses has
been derived [23,61
Lo exp[-h(E - E,) - BT + b(E - E,)T]
L= (24)
+
( E - E o ) / ( & , - Eo) T/Tto - 1
This model provides the life surface shown in Figure 16.
It is characterized by six parameters, that is, h, B , 6 , L o ,
Et, and Tto. Due to the quite large number of parameters,
their estimate by methods such as maximum likelihood
is difficult and, in any case, uncertainty in the calculated
values may be remarkably high, even with many experi-
mental data [58]. However, this is the price to be paid for
 IEEE Transactions on Electrical Insulation
Figure 16.
Life surface under combined thermal-electrical
stresses for threshold life models (after [SI).
achieving a model that covers the whole range of electrical
and thermal stresses where it is assumed to describe in-
sulation endurance adequately. Besides the electrical life
lines a t constant temperature, obtained by intersecting
the life surface by planes a t constant T , the surface can
supply thermal life lines a t constant E (among them the
single-stress line, or Arrhenius graph, for E = E,, pro-
viding that appropriate diagnostic properties and failure
criteria are used for thermal-endurance data processing
[41,47,74]). In fact, the same failure criterion should be
used for both thermal and electrical stress; since failure
consists in electrical breakdown when voltage is applied,
the only criterion for thermal life consistent with that of
electrical life is given by the condition that breakdown
would occur if voltage were applied. This can be realized
by application of a small electrical stress, unable to pro-
duce aging but able to give rise to breakdown when the
material is aged by temperature; or by measurements of
electric strength, because the decline of this property re-
veals changes in the material that would favor breakdown
in the case of voltage application [8].
In addition to electrical and thermal lines, isochronal
lines, or loci of the values of E and T corresponding to
a chosen life value, when simultaneously applied, can be
obtained from the life surface, intersecting it by planes
a t L = constant. In the case of the threshold models,
the most interesting isochronal line for design purposes
is that pertinent to infinite life, i.e. the threshold line.
It collects the pairs of threshold values (Et, Tt), ranging
from (Et,, 0) to (E,, T,,), which bound the a.rea where life
is infinite. The ratio of this area to that of the triangle
[(Et,,O ) , (E,, 0 ) , (E,, Tt,)] gives the stress compatibility
index (SCI) [ 111.
The equa.tion of the threshold line is D = 0, where D
is the denominator of the model. In the case of Equation
(24) a straight line is obtained (SCI=l): this, however, is
not in agreement with experimental d a t a which usually
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Vol. 28 No. 5 , October 1993 765
show (as seen in Section 4) a curved threshold line (SCI
different from 1). The expression of D has been modified
suitably by adding a term proportional to ET, so as to
yield a hyperbola instead of a straight line [8,35]:
Lo exp[-h(E - E,) - BT + b ( E - E,)T]
L= (25)
E-E. + T - kbT(E-Eo) - 1
Eto-Eo Tto Tto(E-Eto)
Equation (25) contains one more parameter kb to be esti-
mated. However, it can be assumed that this parameter
is not independent of the others (especially b), and it is,
in fact, possible to write it as a function of them [35].
Boundary conditions of model (24) or (25) can be sum-
marized as
1. L = LE for 8 = 8, (T = 0),
2. L = LT for E = E,,
3. L -+00 for 8 + B o , if E = Etor
4. L -+ 00 for E + E,, if 8 = et,
These conditions can be exploited to achieve an eas-
ier, even if approximate, estimate of model parameters.
Indeed, the single-stress models (22) and (23) can be pro-
cessed to calculate their parameters ( L o ,Et,, Tt,, h, €?),
while b can be calculated by Equation (24). An expression
similar to (24), but valid for electrical life lines described
by an inverse-power threshold model, is achieved by sub-
stituting (E - E,) with log(E/E,) [23]. It results again
in a six-parameter multistress model, representing a life
threshold surface in log(E/E,), log T , log L coordinates.
Likewise, a model similar t o (25) has been proposed for
insulating materials with electrical life governed by an
inverse-power model [35]. It must be noted that in the
case of a threshold the inverse-power model for electri-
cal life may have different expressions; one of them is the
following [49,57,75]
-n
Other electrical life models could be used, provided
that the corrective term is explained according to syn-
ergism and compatibility conditions. A four-parameter
threshold model has been derived from the ETM (Equa-
tion (22)), considering a shape factor able to improve
d a t a fitting, particularly in correspondence of the curva-
ture of the life line [57]
This model (4pETM) has shown excellent agreement
with several samples of d a t a obtained from different in-
sulations and aging temperatures.
 766
A combined-stress life model can be obtained starting
from single threshold models a t four parameters, by rais-
ing the denominator of Equation (25) to an exponent p,
a function of E and T . If this function is such that p = 0
for no-threshold materials and p > 0 for threshold mate-
rials, the model thereby obtained may be applied to any
material and constitutes a general model for combined
stresses [35].
Other models applied to describe electrical life, even a t
elevated temperatures, will be seen later.
5.1.2 MODELS FOR
THERMAL-ELECTRICAL-M ECHANICAL
STRESSES
Linear models
For combined thermal-electrical-mechanical stresses, the
same procedure used for thermal-electrical stresses can be
adopted. An expression often employed to describe me-
chanical life, based again on the inverse-power model, is
where M is mechanical stress and m the mechanical en-
durance coefficient (with the same meaning as n, Equa-
tion (9)). Therefore, Equations (9) (or (8)), (12) (or
(13)), and (28) can be substituted in general Equation
(7), and the expression for G ( E , T, M ) determined by
compatibility criteria. Since temperature affects both
the electrical and mechanical endurance coefficients, this
means that logG = bTlog(E/E,) for M = M O ,and
logG = b’Tlog(M/M,) for E = E, (therefore, for E =
E, and M = M O then log G = 0 and thus G = 1, life
having to coincide with the thermal one). In addition,
the electrical and mechanical endurance are reciprocal-
ly influenced by each other (i.e. the lines log E - l o g M
a t constant life are curved), thus for T = 0 logG =
b”[log(E/E,) log(M/M,)] (which gives again G = 1 for
E = E, and M = M O ) . In the four-dimensional space
log L, log E, log M and T a hypersurface is obtained, the
intersections of which with the planes T = 0, E = E,
and M = M O give the combined electrical-mechanical,
thermal-mechanical and thermal-electrical life surfaces,
respectively, all of them similar to the life surface shown
in Figure 15. The lines T or log E or log M vs. log life
are straight while the lines (one stress vs. the other) are
curved (constant life curves). The equation of this 4-
dimensional surface, derived from the above assumptions,
can be written as
log L = log Lo - [n- b T - b”log(M/M,)] log(E/E,)
- ( m- b’T) log(M/M,) - BT
(29)
- 1
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Montanari et al.: Aging Phenomenology and Modeling
If exponential models are taken for electrical and me-
chanical lives, the multistress model becomes
L = L, exp{[h - bT - b”(M - M,)](E - E,)
(30)
- ( m - b’T)(M - M O )- RT}
and what is reported above, holds in coordinates E, M ,
T and log L. The previously mentioned problems for pa-
rameter determination and the need to define, for each
insulation under study, the stress ranges where validity
of the model is acceptable, still exist. Usually, however,
knowledge of the whole insulation behaviors of little in-
terest and fewer d a t a are necessary for characterization
and design purposes, so this reduces the number of pa-
rameters to be determined.
For example, for L = const a three-dimensional surface
is obtained, the intersections of which with the coordinate
planes give the constant life curves for that value of L.
In particular, determination of the service surface, for
L = L , (service life), would allow the service stresses to
be derived and the stress compatibility indices known,
and this permits evaluation of the long-term multistress
behavior of the tested material [7].
Threshold models
The same procedure already shown for linear models is
still valid for threshold models. A mechanical threshold
model should be inserted into the multistress life equa-
tion; this equation might be, for example, of the type
The wide number of parameters characterizing the mul-
tistress threshold models makes even more complex the
study of the insulation behavior; however, what is really
of interest is given by the threshold values and the stress
compatibility indices, and the number and duration of the
tests for such a determination seems not too impractical
if a rational plan is adopted [10,58].
5.2 THERMODYNAMIC APPROACH
TO MULTISTRESS MODELS
Thermodynamic approaches t o thermal and multistress
models mostly originate from the Eyring expression for
the reaction rate constant in thermal aging, that is [20,
701
where k and h are the Boltzmann and Planck constants
and A G is the free energy, corresponding to the height
 IEEE Transactions on Electrical Insulation Vol. 28 N o . 5 , October I993 76 7

of the energy barrier to be overcome for development of

degradation reactions. The life model can be derived from
(32) remembering the relationship of inverse proportion-
ality between reaction rate constant and life. It provides
linear life lines in log(LT0) vs. l / O plots and is an alterna-
tive to the Arrhenius model of Equation (10). This model
can even be rewritten taking into account the compensa-
tion effect [31,73], as follows
Ic31nC- k4
LTO = C e x p (33) l t ' 0 .
9 20ODC

where C , k3 and k4 are the model parameters, functions

of A L , h, IC and the thermal expansion coefficient [31].

In order to take into account electrical and mechanical

0.1 2
1c 1: 1o3 10 1"s 1 06
stresses, applied together with temperature, it has been Llfe (mlnl
Figure 17.
speculated that these stresses lower the free-energy bar-
rier relevant to thermal degradation, so that the overall Electrical life lines at different temperatures of
reaction rate proceeds faster. This approach has given capacitors (after [21]).
rise to both the so-called Zhurkov model for combined function of electrical stress, in order to give a satisfacto-
thermal-electrical stresses [14,75] ry d a t a fit [30]. Therefore, these models fit experimental
results derived from electrical or mechanical life tests a t
L = C1exp
1
where A H M is the activation energy of the fracture pro-
(34) chosen temperatures.

An objection to the above approach can come from

cess, 7 the activation volume for submicrocrack forma-
tion, C1 a material parameter), and the Crine models
for combined thermal-electrical and thermal-mechanical
stresses [31,76]
h AG
L M - exp -csch
2ke Ece [-
h AG
L M -exp -csch
Ice
2ke
where e is the electronic charge and 6 the width of the
energy barrier. Equations (35) and (36) simplify for high
electrical and mechanical stresses, where aging reaction
goes prevailingly in the forward direction, to exponential
form (obtained by substituting sinh with an exponential
function). Equations (35) and (36) provide electrical or
mechanical life lines a t a chosen temperature, in semilog
plot, which are straight a t high stresses, but tend to infi-
nite life when electrical and mechanical stresses approach
zero. In contrast, Equation (34) provides straight lines in
semilog plot M vs. log L .
consideration that the contribution of electrical stress to
aging in multistress conditions is, generally speaking, du-
al, as already mentioned. In fact, it consists not only of
lowering the free-energy barrier (as in (35), (36)) but of
producing its own degradation process, with a mechanism
(35) of electronic nature which prevails except in the case of
low electrical stresses and high temperatures. This can
be taken into account as follows
[=
AG A+(E)
L =hexp
Ice - -
k0 -
where A @ ( E ) takes into account the energy barrier low-
ering by electric stress.
The expression thereby obtained has formal identity
with Equation (17) if the term A + ( E ) is explained by
a linear relationship. Therefore, Equation (37) consti-
tutes a general multistress model which provides a phys-
ical support to the phenomenological models derived by
a multiplicative law.

These thermodynamic life models have undoubtedly
the attraction of being governed by parameters direct-
ly related t o physical quantities, but cannot be consid-
ered proper multistress models. In fact, their parameters
are not fully explained as functions of temperature. For
example, the width of the energy barrier 6 for electri-
cal stress, a function of temperature [77], must be also a
The same procedure may be applied for multiple thermal-
mechanical stresses, referring to Equation (34). An equa-
tion similar to (37) is obtained again, where M replaces
E . This shows that the exponential model has a phys-
ical basis even in the case of mechanical stress, thus its
use as an alternative to the inverse-power model is not
unfounded.

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 768 Montanari et al.: Aging Phenomenology and Modeling

5.3 APPLICATION OF ELECTRICAL

MODELS TO MULTISTRESS
CONDITIONS

The results of combined thermal-electrical or thermal-

mechanical life tests are often investigated by plotting
electrical life lines a t the different test temperatures.

Electrical life models, the parameters of which are un-

explained functions of temperature and, eventually, of
other applied stresses or factors of influence, can be rapid-
4 i
ly obtained from those valid for single electrical stresses. lo2 10' in in
Life lhl
To this purpose, it is necessary to rewrite the electrical
Figure 18.
models in such a way that their parameters can be deter-
mined more easily. For example, Equations (8) and (9) Electrical life curves, at probability 63.2%, de-
can be rewritten as rived by the four-parameter exponential model,
relevant to data obtained by combined-stress tests
L E = L H exp[-h(E - EH)] (38) performed on XLPE cables at 20 and 90°C (after
[571),
LE = LH I&]
r ~ 1 - n
(39)
where E H is the highest value of the electrical stress range
where the model is thought valid, a t the test temperature,
and LH is the corresponding time to failure. The model
parameters in this case are LH and n (or h ) , and L H is
far simpler to determine than Lo. The parameters are
functions of temperature, and Equations (38) and (39)
provide a set of straight electrical life lines (in semilog or
log-log plots) for combined stress conditions. As an ex-
ample, Figure 17 shows the electrical life lines, a t three
different temperatures, relevant to mica capacitors sub-
jected to combined thermal-electrical life tests [21]. in2 lu3 104 105
Life I h )
Figure 19.
The same procedure can be used for threshold models.
With reference t o ( L H ,EH)instead of ( L o ,Eo),the ETM Electrical life curves, at probability 63.2%, de-
of Equation (22), becomes rived by the four-parameter inverse-power model,
relevant to data obtained by combined-stress tests
performed on XLPE cables at 20 and 90°C (after

and the inverse-power model (26) has the form
where Et is the electrical threshold a t generic tempera-
ture 6. Both models are characterized by three parame-
ters which are functions of temperature. Other electrical
life threshold models, also valid in multistress conditions,
have been proposed in the literature. Among them, a
three-parameter model based on evaluation of damage
due to electrons injected by the field-emission process,
according to the Fowler-Nordheim equation [78], is dis-
cussed in [53,57], but it is omitted here because the ex-
perimental d a t a fit is generally quite poor compared to
the models dealt with above [57].
The 4pETM, already described, seems the most appro-
priate to describe the long-term electrical behavior over a
wide range of temperatures; with reference to ( E H ,L H ) ,
this model is written as
Another four-parameter threshold model, based on the
inverse- power relationship, has been presented in [53,
571. It derives from Equation (39), where the voltage en-
durance coefficient n, is considered a function of electrical
stress; the following expression for n( E) is proposed [57]

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 IEEE Transactions on Electrical Insulation
As an example of application of the models above, in
Figures 18 and 19 the electrical life lines a t failure prob-
ability 63.2% based on the 4-parameter models, starting
from the experimental points obtained a t two different
temperatures for XLPE cable models and already report-
ed in Figure 11, have been drawn [57].
As can be seen, the agreement is very good for both
models. The satisfactory behavior of the models is due
to an appropriate selection of electrical and thermal stress
ranges where the models are applied. In some cases, when
models are used to treat data from accelerated life tests,
and test stresses cover a wide range from very high to
low values, the life models above described may not fit
well the whole d a t a set (e.g. for S-shaped life line the
first part of the line is not represented by the above mod-
els). This induces us to use more complex models (such
as that proposed by Bahder et al.,discussed later), which
involve a larger number of parameters, or to restrict the
stress range where the models are applied. The latter
solution is appropriate when the stress range is restrict-
ed to neglect the experimental points which correspond
to the highest test stresses and the shortest lives in min-
utes or hours. Therefore, life models should hold for sets
of data from intermediate to low stresses, which provide
information about insulation behavior close to expected
service stresses [57]. This procedure is also justified by
the consideration that the true model, able to describe
the aging processes occurring in insulating materials, is
often hidden by technological features, like curing tech-
nique, test cell, test methods, etc. Hence, in practice the
life model becomes a mathematical description of insu-
lation behavior, which derives its validity and usefulness
from its ability to fit experimental data.
Yet, the purpose of modeling is not only this. An ap-
propriate phenomenological model should allow under-
standing of the general laws which govern material behav-
ior by means of experimental results which are, howev-
er, influenced by material technology and test conditions.
This may be the reason why it is necessary to make the
models more and more complex in order to enable them
to fit the actual data. The purpose of researchers is to
discriminate what is intrinsic in the material behavior.
Something has been done in this field. For example, if
specimens that failed during an electrical life test are sub-
jected to electrical strength measurements, performed a t
many locations of the aged surface, the average of the
breakdown strength values compared with that for un-
aged specimens can give information about the aging con-
ditions of the specimens a t the failure time. If the value
for aged specimens is close t o that for the unaged ones,
it means that failure has occurred because of poor tech-
nology (of specimen or aging cell) and not due to a low
intrinsic quality of the material under consideration [49].
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Vol. 28 N o . 5 , O c t o b e r 1993 769
It can be noted that both four-parameter models could
be used in the general Equation (7), in order to achieve
a multistress life model thoroughly explained in a select-
ed temperature and electrical stress range. However, the
number of model parameters thus resulting would become
so large as t o give problems in their determination and
accuracy. Some indication of temperature dependence
of the model parameters was achieved by processing da-
t a samples derived from combined- stress life tests per-
formed a t four different temperatures on XLPE cables
and Nomex-Mylar-Nomex specimens. Such a dependence
may be assumed to be of the exponential type [53]
(44)
where P is the generic parameter ( E H , Eto, h or n,).
As a first approximation, can be assumed constant
with T for a material or insulation system, and equal to
the average of the values estimated a t the different test
temperatures. This is substantially in accordance with
the simple exponential threshold model where = 1.
The shape parameter, evaluated for several sets of data
relevant to different test temperatures and insulations,
has been shown to be scattered around a slightly larger
mean value (1.2) [53]. However, many more data are
required to identify the most suitable expression for the
temperature dependence of the parameters. Therefore, a
way to develop models for temperatures different from the
test ones is to resort t o regression of parameter values vs.
thermal stress and refer to extrapolated or interpolated
values.
Finally, an interesting electrical life model, derived un-
der the assumption that electrical degradation is due to
partial discharge evolution from local electrical field con-
centration, was proposed by Bahder et al. [33]
It may be applied also for be combined thermal-electrical
stress, provided that the parameters are calculated from
multistress data. The life line, on log E vs. log L plot,
has the characteristic S-shape, nearly straight a t high
stresses, curved downwards a t intermediate stresses and
a tendency towards horizontality for E approaching the
threshold value Et and well describes the experimental
trend.
This accurate description of the life line which allows
the range of model validity to be enlarged from high to
low stresses, is due to the presence of five parameters in
the model, i.e. E T , b l . . . b 4 . Complexity of the model
requires a large amount of experimental d a t a to achieve
accurate parameter estimates, and in practice prevents
 770
a model generalization in the temperature domain. By
neglecting the upper part of the line it is possible to verify
that model (45) coincides with the exponential threshold
model [35].
6. EVALUATION OF MATERIAL
BEHAVIOR IN MULTISTRESS
CONDITIONS AND DATA
PROCESSING
HARACTERIZATION of insulating materials and sys-
C tems is usually achieved by accelerated functional
(life) tests, which are tests performed a t chosen values
of applied stresses (and, eventually, factors of influence).
Acceleration is needed to shorten test times, but cannot
be too strong since evaluation of insulation serviceability
is normally requested. Acceleration may be realized by
increasing stress frequency (when stress is an alternating
quantity, such as electrical stress) or stress magnitude. In
order to be closer to the expected service conditions, sev-
eral stresses and factors of influence are applied together
(multistress).
When the purpose of life tests is characterization of new
materials or insulation systems, tests should be planned
so as to provide a set of experimental d a t a (stress fail-
ure times) which can support application of a life mod-
el. Indeed, model parameters are the tool for material
characterization and comparison, and model definition in
a suitable stress range, which includes service require-
ments, provides information on design stresses. Clearly,
this picture involves some assumptions, such as the valid-
ity of the model for stresses different from the test values
(in particular lower), and the possibility to relate the test
data, often realized on insulation models and in simulated
service-aging conditions, to actual service requirements.
For these reasons, planning of a test cycle, as well as ex-
perimental d a t a processing, is important in the study of
insulation endurance.
A brief survey of requisites for test design and realiza-
tion, and d a t a processing should mention the following
items: to choose a set of test-stress values able to give the
most complete information on material behavior in not
too prolonged test times; to use test cells, specimens and
aging conditions representative of actual service aging;
and to obtain a n amount of d a t a sufficient for accurate
model parameter estimates and for statistical processing.
These items are not trivial. For example, optimum
design of life tests should start with knowledge of high-
stress performance, in order to obtain some information
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Montanari et al.: Aging Phenomenology and Modeling
for selection of the lowest test-stress levels. The latter are
the most expensive tests, due to their length, and a bad
choice of the test-stress values may give rise to incomplete
information, and even to the need to stop the test (due to
a n excessive test duration [41,58,79]) before occurrence
of any specimen failure.
Sample size and kind of test development, i.e. com-
plete, single or progressively censored [80,81] may affect
significantly the accuracy of parameter estimates and also
best-fitting model evaluation [79-831. Finally, the combi-
nation of stresses according to expected service conditions
may provide significantly different results with respect to
single-stress testing. Use of insulation system models al-
so may provide misleading indications for insulation sys-
tem design (however, for power cables estimates made on
models may sometimes be related to full-size systems by
means of dimensional effect relationships [50,51]).
Statistical processing is a fundamental requisite for test
d a t a handling, as well as insulation characterization and
design evaluation. The results of accelerated life tests,
that is, failure times associated to test-stress values, are
usually treated by Weibull or lognormal distributions, in
.order to obtain life points, a t chosen failure probabili-
ties, which allow the life line to be drawh [84]. The
best-fitting model has to be selected by comparing dif-
ferent models on the basis of their data fit. This requires
model parameters to be estimated with sufficient accu-
racy. As previously mentioned, an estimate of param-
eters can be realized by different methods, such as least
square regression or maximum likelihood, but some prob-
lems in obtaining mathematical solutions for the required
algorithms have to be expected, especially for more than
four model parameters. In addition, the estimate accu-
racy strongly decreases when the number of parameters
grows. The goal to estimate lives a t selected failure per-
centiles may be reached by generalizing the probability
distribution used to process failure-time data to the whole
stress range where the life model is applied. This can be
achieved if the stress dependence of the scale parameter
of the probability distribution is explained by means of
the best-fitting model [42,51,52,68,85- 871. In this way,
attempts to get rough estimates of design stresses, which
must correspond to very low failure probabilities, may be
realized and confidence limits of life lines determined.
Sometimes, graphical procedures can be used advanta-
geously to determine parameters or indices for material
characterization, relevant to the stress-life values of more
practical interest. The method proposed in [6,11,41,88]
can be extremely useful to obtain a great amount of in-
formation on insulation multistress endurance. Briefly,
this graphic procedure, called combined analysis meth-
od (CAM), consists of plotting N +
1 different graphs,
 IEEE Transactions on Electrical Insulation
where the results of life tests are set. For example, in the
case of combined thermal-electrical stress, three graphs
are considered: the electrical life graph, collecting elec-
trical life lines a t different temperatures, the thermal life
graph, collecting thermal life lines a t different values of
electrical stress, and the constant-life graph (or E - T
graph), where isochronal lines, loci of the applied stress-
es for selected lives, are reported. Comparison of these
three graphs provides a powerful tool for investigation
of insulation endurance. Indeed, the drawing of lines
on one graph, on the basis of experimental results, adds
graphically estimated points to the other graphs, so that
the amount of information on insulation behavior grows
and isochronal lines, possibly close to expected service
requirements, can be plotted. The significance of these
lines has been emphasized already, because they provide
indices for combined-stress endurance evaluation.
Therefore, even ignoring any theoretical model, evalu-
ation of the insulation quality and, likely, of the design
stresses, (as well as of the thresholds, if they have practi-
cal values) can be performed. It must be pointed out that
the long-term material behavior under combined thermal-
electrical stresses can be foreseen by means of knowledge
of only three indices: the thermal and electrical thresh-
olds, or even the values of electrical and thermal stresses
corresponding t o long life (for example the T I for ther-
mal stress), and the so-called stress-compatibility index,
already explained [8,11].
7. DEVELOPMENT OF
PHENOMENOLOGICAL AGING
THEORY
this Section the phenomenological aging theory, il-
I N
lustrated in Section 2, is dealt with again in order to
show its application for better understanding of the aging
process and of the quantities which affect it.
With reference to the general Equations (1) to (5), it
has been possible t o explain the aging model when elec-
trical stress is among the applied stresses, taking electric
strength as the diagnostic property for aging evaluation
[5,6,8,18,89-931. It is, in fact, a common experience
that aging under multiple or single electrical, thermal and
mechanical stresses, normally gives rise, after significant
aging times, to a noticeable decrease of electric strength
of insulating materials and systems. Generally, after an
initial slow decrease, electric strength steeply falls to ze-
ro, which corresponds to insulation failure (it must be
observed that, owing to the strong decrease of electric
strength in the last part of the material life, even values
close to 50% are valid end points, being an indication of
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Vol. 28 No. 5 , October 1993 771
significant degradation). Therefore, Equation ( 3 ) and (4)
can be rewritten as [6-81
(46)
AL = F ( 0 )= R ( E ) L (47)
where E S is electric strength measured a t t i m e t and E S ,
is initial electric strength, measured on specimens before
aging.
A law for electric strength time variation was derived
and connected with life models, obtaining the following
general equation for aging and endurance of materials,
valid for single electrical stress [5,6,18,24,90]:
where N is a general voltage endurance coefficient, de-
fined for any type of life line, straight or curved, and
given at any point ( E , L ) of the line by the reciprocal of
the slope of the straight line connecting that point with
the initial one, ( E S , , t o ) ,t o being the time to failure a t
constant stress E = ES,. N is obviously a function of
electrical stress, for example according to Equation (43),
where in this case n, is the value of N for E = ES,. If
E S = 0 is put in Equation (48), the life equation should
be obtained, as can be verified immediately in the case of
Equation ( 9 ) , remembering that (L,E,)" = (toES,)n.
Equation (48) has been generalized for multistress con-
ditions in the following way [6-8,931
(49)
where N and L have the appropriate expressions for any
considered condition. Equation (49) constitutes a gener-
al model for insulation aging, when electric strength is
taken as the property for aging evaluation, regardless of
the type of applied stress. For this reason N is the on-
ly parameter explained in (49) (in addition to ES,), the
other parameters, relevant to the various stresses and ag-
ing factors which produce aging, being included in the
expression of life L and eventually in the dependence of
N on such stresses.
In the case of combined thermal-electrical stresses, de-
scribing the electrical life by the inverse-power law (Equa-
tion ( 9 ) ) and thermal life by the Arrhenius law (Equa-
tion (12)), it follows that
with N ( T ) = N -bT, which provides the combined-stress
life model (18) for E S = 0 and the single-stress aging
 772
model (48) for T = 0. Equation (50) is, in fact, a simple
example of the equation of the four-dimensional aging hy-
persurface: condition E S = 0 gives the intersection with
the failure plane, which provides the life surface, while
the condition T = 0 gives the electrical aging surface a t
room temperature.
Coming back to (48), let us observe that this equa-
tion is the basis for application of the so-called N-method
for electrical endurance evaluation of insulating materials.
This method consists of censoring a t time t an electrical
aging test performed a t stress E , and subsequently car-
rying out electric strength tests on the aged specimens.
If similar tests have been made on a set of unaged spec-
imens, all quantities are known in Equation (48), N ex-
cepted, which can then be calculated. Once N is known,
life L a t electrical stress E can be analytically or graph-
ically determined [6,8,18,49]. By repeating the test for
different values of E , the electrical life line can be plotted
point by point. This method can be used as an alterna-
tive to, or together with, the conventional one (performed
up to spontaneous breakdown of all or a t least the ma-
jority of specimens). The changes of N give immediate
information on the shape of the line: if N increases from
one test to another, that means an upward curvature, and
thus a possible tendency towards a threshold.
If electric strength measurements are carried out a t
many locations of the same specimen, the mean value
of electric strength and its scatter can be obtained; this
gives a good evaluation of aged specimens and permits
determination of their inherent endurance, while sponta-
neous failure largely depends on specimen homogeneity.
The line thus plotted is then an 'intrinsic' one, practically
the limit to which the specimens endurance tends by im-
proving the manufacturing technique. Therefore, it can
be said that by this method the intrinsic endurance of an
insulating material is determined, very significant in eval-
uating whether the material is or is not worth improving
by a more sophisticated and expensive technology.
Let us finally observe that by comparing (49) with gen-
eral Equation (5), it follows that
A = A L -t= A L
L
[1- (2) ]
Nt1
(51)
Since total aging A is a cumulative quantity, then from
(2) it follows that
t D
-- I
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Montanari et al.: Aging Phenomenology and Modeling
with p = E S / E S , . By putting f ' ( p ) = p N , it follows that
A= 1
0
t P
R d t = J P N dp
1 (53)
-
- 1 - pNt' - 1- (ES/ES,)Ntl
N+1 N+l
and thus
1
Ar, = A ( E S = 0) = - (54)
N+1
As previously mentioned, AL is then a function of the
endurance characteristics of an insulation [6,8]. The larg-
er N is, i.e. the less steep the slope of the life line, the
less aging and the better the material endurance.
8. CONCLUSIONS
of aging and life behavior of insulating
I NVESTIGATION
materials and systems is a subject of great interest for
electrical engineers. It still needs settled bases for further
theoretical developments, and research.
The contributions given by this paper have been ad-
dressed to show fundamental achievements on aging and
life modeling, and underline some of the numerous inher-
ent problems, relevant to determination of multistress life
and aging models, their use to process experimental da-
t a and their limits of application, as well as to describe
some practical procedures. The overview of life models
has shown the difficulties in obtaining satisfactory mod-
els which represent the insulation behavior under multi-
ple stresses over the range of stresses. There are, in fact,
many events which determine the results of life tests, and
the aging mechanisms are not always completely known.
Therefore, several parameters and indices are often used
in life and aging models, in order to achieve good quality
of fit to experimental data, to evaluate and compare ma-
terials, and to obtain reliable design stress estimates. On
the other hand, insulation systems consist of materials of
so many different types and characteristics and are manu-
factured in so many different ways, that it seems unlikely
that only one model, for a combination of stresses, can
provide a good description of their behavior. If materials
and not systems are considered, things are simpler and
the use of valid life models is possible.
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Manuscript was received on 25 January 1993, in final form 26
July 1993.