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Nhung Yeu To Quyet Dinh Tieu Dung
Nhung Yeu To Quyet Dinh Tieu Dung
CONFIDENCE
Concerns and Spending
Intentions Around the World
QUARTER 1, 2013
GLOBALLY
• Global consumer confidence increased to 93, from 91 in Q4 2012
• 60% of 58 countries posted improved confidence levels, compared
to 33% in Q4 2012
Regionally
• Spending intentions in North America increased since the beginning
of the Great Recession in 2008
• Confidence in key Asian export economies rebounded strongly in Q1
• Consumer confidence increased in central and northern Europe,
surpassing year-ago levels
• Latin Americans reported spending restraint and a two-point
confidence decline in Q1
• Consumer confidence in Middle East/Africa declined to lowest level
in three years
IN
-7 +5 DE
XE
+5 -1 S AB
-1 O
+6 VE
+1 10
+5 0
0
IN
+2
DI
CA
-5
+1
TE
IA
S
OP
POR
TRY
NES
TE 0
BR ILA NES
TIM
+13 RA
OUN
I
HU
120 INDO
TUG E| 40
GR
ISM
EM
I
+23
116 | PH IA
ND
TH LIPP
N
ND
EE
X | C
+3 A
GA Y
AL
AR
I
C
| I
|
CR
+4
ITA IA
IL
RY | 44
A
D
| 31
122
SO INDE
AZ
E
O
IT
L
-4 UTSP
| 4
AT
118
N A
|
H NG
KO AIN | U IN
3
|
8 | CH G KO +4
| 4
1
RE
11
FR | 0
-2 AN A | 47 MO 1 8 N
4
NT RE 10 | HO AYSIA
BU CE 51 DE CO +2
LG
AR FI 1 0 8 AL
I A | 55
|
N | M AY
-6 ROM 107 | NORW
O
ANI 5 7
SC
FI
A | 106 A +5
NAD
DE
5
LES
POLA | CA
ND | 9
93
+7 102
NT
ND
62 ITZ RL A
E
SLOVAKI
A | 64 100 | SW 0
-3 UKRAINE | 66 98 | PERU
| 68
GLOBAL 98 | CHILE +3
+6 CZECH REPUBLIC AVERAGE 96 | SIN
A N D | 70 GAPOR
E
IRE L ( +2 change from Q4-2012 ) 95 | S
| 70 AUD
IA 95 | I ARA +1
+5 L ATV | 72 DEN BIA
A 94 MA
E N TIN | 7
2
94 VIET
| RK -17
-2 A RG E L A | 73 93 | AU NAM
ZU IA 3
NE | 7 91 | U ST
VE TON N 4 N RA
LIA +6
| 7 IS ITE
|
-3 ES PA
91 | A
RA D
JA YPT
LA M | 74
ST
90 | NE CO
| G
EL
75
|
AT +6
90
EG
76
IA
E R ST R
89 | PAKIS
ES
7
-12
N
88
8
TAIW M | 7
M
|
| 79
83 | T
U
UA
83 | SW
| 7
80
81 | RUSSIA
| M
FIN DO
81 | COLOMBIA
AN
ND
-1
TH
Y
EX
NG
AN
+1
L ANDS |
RICA
I
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LI
A
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Z
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EA
+4
E DE N
BEL
D
LA
TAN
+14
H AF
ITE
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+1
UN
NETHER
-20
SOUT
+4
+2
+4
-4
-4
+7
+3 +3
+12 -6
+3 +3 -8
+4 -14 -3
*Survey is based on respondents with Internet access. China survey results reflect a mixed
*Survey is based on respondents with Internet access. China survey results reflect a mixed methodology. Index levels above and below 100 indicate degrees of optimism/pessimism.
methodology. Index levels above and below 100 indicate degrees of optimism/pessimism.
“We suspect that fears of the European debt crisis spreading beyond
recession-stricken southern European countries may have eased in the first
quarter,” said Dr. Bala. “However, weak labor market conditions in troubled
economies, including Greece, Ireland, Italy, Portugal and Spain, and the
recent Cyprus financial crisis are further indications of the fragile state
of the European economy, which continue to hinder a full recovery in the
region.”
“Americans are in phase two of the economic recovery, however, for many,
it just doesn’t feel that way,” said James Russo, senior vice president,
Global Consumer Insights, Nielsen. “At the height of the Great Recession
(2008–2009), consumer confidence averaged an index of 81 and remained
stubbornly low at 82 throughout 2010–2011. Since 2012, however,
consumer confidence is averaging an index of 90, which is still below
the pre-recession average of 103 (2005–2007), but illustrates a sustained
positive movement. Three years of strong gains in the equity market are
balanced by five years of declining median household incomes, which
highlights the economic divide and precarious state of the recovery.”
North America led the global regions for spending intentions over the
next 12 months. Forty-two percent of North American respondents
said they plan to spend on discretionary items during the year—a six
point rise from Q4 2012, which signaled a welcomed increase from
the 33 percent average reported over the past three years. An increase
in spending intentions was also reported in the Asia-Pacific region,
rising two percentage points to 39 percent. Spending intentions among
respondents in Latin America (35%), Middle East/ Africa (33%), and
Europe (27%) declined in Q1.
SAVINGS
47
45
31
CLOTHES
31
31
VACATIONS
29
OUT-OF-HOME 28
ENTERTAINMENT 28
PAYING DEBTS
24
24
24
TECHNOLOGY
23
22
HOME IMPROVEMENTS
19
18 Q1 2013
INVESTING
18
Q4 2012
11
RETIREMENT FUND
10
15
NO SPARE CASH
15
continued
YES
NO
While global economic indicators improved in Q1, the reality for most Middle east/ africa
respondents was that the recession would live on for at least another
year. More than half of global respondents (56%) said they were in 78%
a recession in Q1, an improvement from 59 percent reported in the
previous quarter and 62 percent from six months ago. Asia-Pacific 22%
respondents posted the most significant recessionary mindset recovery,
down eight percentage points regionally to 40 percent (from Q4 2012).
europe
Three quarters of respondents in the Middle East/Africa (78%), Europe
(76%) and North America (75%) remained mired in a recessionary 76%
mindset, as the sentiment worsened in these regions in the first quarter.
The biggest recessionary mindset increase was reported among Middle 24%
East/Africa respondents, rising five percentage points, followed by
an increase of four percentage points in North America (despite the
overall increase in confidence), and one point in Europe. Latin American north america
respondents reported a three point recessionary mindset increase to 53
percent, compared to Q4 2012. 75%
Europeans were the most pessimistic about the immediate economic 25%
future, with 64 percent believing the recession would live on for another
12 months. In North America, 59 percent did not believe the recession
would be over in the year, which was an up from 55 percent in Q4 2012. latin america
Forty-three percent of Latin American, 42 percent of Middle East/Africa
respondents and 38 percent of Asia-Pacific respondents expected the 53%
recession to live on for another 12 months.
47%
asia-pacific
40%
60%
global average
56%
44%
SAVING 36%
STRATEGIES SAVINGS
40%
11%
RETIREMENT FUND
18%
INVESTING
11%
14%
30%
PAYING DEBTS
42%
22%
VACATIONS 25%
SPENDING
STRATEGIES 25%
CLOTHES
22%
22%
OUT-OF-HOME ENTERTAINMENT
19%
TECHNOLOGY
22%
14%
widened +7
+7
64 | Slovakia
76 | Finland
122
INDONESIA 117
120
INDIA 121
118
PHILIPPINES
119
116
THAILAND
115
108
CHINA
108
108
HONG KONG 85
107
MALAYSIA 103
96
SINGAPORE
95
94
AUSTRALIA
95
94
VIETNAM 88
90
NEW ZEALAND
94
78
TAIWAN
66 Q1 2013
73 Q4 2012
JAPAN
59
51
SOUTH KOREA
38
spending Q1 2013
restraint
Q4 2012
BRAZIL
Consumer confidence in Latin America decreased two percentage points
from Q4 2012 with an index of 94, reflecting double-digit confidence
111
declines in Colombia (-14) and Venezuela (-12). Argentina also declined 111
three index points to 72. Brazil led the region with the highest index of
111, which was flat from Q4, followed by steady consumer confidence PERU
performance in Peru (98). Mexico and Chile increased three points each
to an index of 89 and 98, respectively. 98
98
Latin Americans showed spending restraint in Q1 as discretionary
purchase intentions for out-of-home entertainment, new clothes, home CHILE
improvements and holidays all declined from the end of last year. One-
fifth of Latin American respondents said they had no spare cash, an 98
increase of one percentage point from Q4 2012. 95
“In Brazil, despite various attempts made by the government to infuse ARGENTINA
growth, the Brazilian economy remained flat,” said Eduardo Ragasol,
72
country manager, Nielsen Brazil. “But a stable employment rate is
keeping consumers confident that they can pay their debts and maintain 75
spending levels to support their lifestyle needs.”
Q1 2013
Africans Q4 2012
Six-in-ten Middle East/African respondents believed that local job UNITED ARAB EMIRATES
prospects over the next 12 months would be bad/not so good, which was
an increase of nine percentage points from Q4 2012. Just over half (52%) 108
of respondents said the state of their personal finances was in good 113
shape, down from 58 percent in Q4 2012. Sixty-five percent of Middle
East/African respondents were not confident they will be able to spend
in the year ahead. SAUDI ARABIA
95
One-in-four respondents in the region said they had no spare cash after
paying living expenses—an increase of four percentage points from the 112
end of last year. Cash-strapped respondents planned to cut back on out-
of-home entertainment and new technology purchases. The number of ISRAEL
respondents in the region who felt mired in a recession rose five points
quarterly to 78 percent, the highest among all the regions.
91
90
Double-digit consumer confidence declines were reported in Egypt (-20)
and Saudi Arabia (-17). Pakistan declined six index points to a score of
PAKISTAN
88, and United Arab Emirates dropped five index points to 108, which
was the highest index reported in the region. Consumer confidence in 88
South Africa increased three index points to 79 and Israel rose one point
to a score of 91.
94
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