Technonoly

- Assessing technological trends and their broader implications: challenge

 timelines remain uncertain

 foundational science to a transformational application: difficult distingue

- Emerging technologies: myriad ethical, societal, and security

 impact on the environment

 warfare

I. TRENDS ACROSS EMERGING TECHNOLOGIES

- Multiple trends are shaping the technology landscape

- When not uniformly or predictably  share some common drivers and dynamics

1. Scientific Convergence Sparking Innovation

- Convergence (hội tụ) unrelated areas of scientific research and technological applications  rapid
development of novel applications

 possible
 practical
 useful

Ex: Smartphone

 electronics  batteries
 antennas  telecommunications networks
 materials  user interfaces

- Convergence ↑: AI, high-speed telecommunications, and biotechnology

 due to ↑ understanding of the social and behavioral sciences

 Provide a foundation for rapid innovation, ↓ the barriers to market entrance.

2. Growing Competition for Dominance

- Technological dominance intertwined (gắn bó chặt chẽ) geopoliticals

- Shaped by broader political, economic, and societal (particular linked with China)

- Technology leadership (the concentration of human talent, foundational knowledge, and supply
chains) : long-term investment and visionary leadership
- Focus resources today  Maybe leader 2040

- Open economies: private efforts + partnerships (governments + private corporations, research

programs) >< State-led economie

 Advantage: directing & concentrating resources (data access)

 Lack: more open, creative, and competitive environments

3. Technologies Diffusing Globall

- Technologies and applications

 Available nearly every region of the world

 Developing countries:
 take advantage of the latest core advances
 develop global applications
 contribute supply chains of more advanced economies

4. Timelines Shrinking

- Time: develop, deploy, mature, retire technologies  decades to years

- Multiple actors (including corporations and states) deploy and exploit a new technology before others

 Developing countries: choose technologies before understand the implications  risk technological
dead ends or fall behind

- Planned economies: react faster

 risk: reduced technological diversity and efficiency.

II. TECHNOLOGIES DRIVING TRANSFORMATION

Some technological areas:

 potential for transformative change

 the potential consequences of new technologies
 AI
 Biotechnology
 Materials and manufacturing

 Combine with other technologies (energy storage)  shape societies, economies, and perhaps the
nature of power.

1. Artificial Intelligence Becoming Mainstream

- AI: cognition and creative problem solving by machines

- Artificial General Intelligence: match or exceed a human being’s understanding and learning capacity

- 2040, AI applications will benefit almost every aspect of our lives. ( healthcare, efficient
transportation, education, software, agricultural)

- Political and business leaders worldwide:

 seeking global talent and pouring resources into developing AI

 Reshape societies
 Economies
 War
 Challenge:
 keep pace
 mitigate harmful effects

- Disproportionate advantages for nations: support, develop, and adopt

- AI, particularly in warfare,

 increases the risk of intentional misuse

 unintended engagement
 escalation.

a. Industry and Labor Transformed

- AI

 transform almost all industries

 disrupt the global labor force (creating new job fields, eliminating others)
 economic and social redistributions

- Human-machine: many future jobs

- To advantage AI and ↓ unemployment:

 countries and corporations: education and retraining workforce.

b. Data Will Be King

- AI dependent industries and organizations:

 require massive quantities of data

- Data available in 2040

  valuable insights and capabilities
 open up access, privacy, ownership, and control of data

c. Security and Privacy Reimagined

- Individuals need to share more personal information: access to applications, and tracking

 Authoritarian governments: monitor and even control their populations.

- Powerful tools (video manipulation, deep fakes)

 improve tailored marketing

 advance a particular narrative.

- Data manipulation to skew their output.

d. Ethics of Autonomy

- AI’s development and the level of human involvement  ethical concerns

- ↑ unintentional bias, discrimination, unexpected outcomes, or intentional misdirection

- strict rules on the use of personal data debate coexist with the full realization of AI capabilities.

e. AI Enhanced Warfare

- military systems: ↑

 weapons,
 defenses,
 security systems,

both physical and cybe

- counter-AI: emerge

 negate or confuse AI decisionmaking

2. Smart Materials and Manufacturing Are Building a New World

- 2040, advances in novel materials + smart manufacturing

 reshape production: from consumer goods to high-end military systems,

 reducing costs
 extending capabilities
 shifting supply chains
  new design options

 Fourth Industrial Revolution

- accelerated:

 high performance computing

 materials modeling
 AI
 Bio-materials.

a. Increased Design Options

- Additive manufacturing (AM) ( 3D printing) fabricate

 variety of materials (titanium to explosives)

 smaller facilities
 less expertise

 Advanced manufacturing capabilities to small companies and individuals

- Modern manufacturing:

 pid prototyping
 highly customized parts
 onsite production
 the fabrication of shapes impossible.

b. Adapting On the Fly

- Advances in information systems (computational modeling, machine learning, + physical systems

(robust industrial Internet of Things and advanced robotics)) : integrated

 respond changing conditions in the factory, in the supply network, and in demand.

c. Design What You Need.

- Materials: off-the-shelf materials  optimized materials

- Combined with additive manufacturing, materials-by-design  stronger, lighter, and more durable.

d. Assemble What You Need

- Development of new materials  previously unobtainable properties

- Two-dimensional materials, metamaterials, and programmable matter

 unusual strength, flexibility, conductivity, or other properties that enable new applications.
3. Biotechnology Enabling Rapid Innovation

- 2040, biotechnology innovations

 enable societies to

 reduce disease, hunger,

 petrochemical dependence
 interact with the environment and each other.

- Challenged

 harness
 addressing the market, regulatory, safety, and ethical concerns surrounding these technologie
(genetically modified crops and foods)

- 2040, 20% of global economic activity (notably in agriculture and manufacturing) based on bioeconomy
growth rates relative to GDP

- 2019, U.S. bioeconomy

 ≈$1 trillion dollars annually

 or approximately 5.1% of its total economy

- 2017-19, EU & UN bioeconomic

 10% Europe’s economy

NEW TECHNOLOGIES FUELING SPACE COMMERCE AND SPARKING COMPETITION

- 2040 , The space landscape in 2040 + technology  drive commercialization and introduce new
applications

- Services (communications, navigation, and satellite imagery)

 improved capabilities
 lower costs
 increasing efficiencies

- U.S. >< China

1. SPACE EXPLORATION EXPANDS

- Many countries: space exploration  part of international cooperative efforts

 national prestige, opportunities for scientific and technical advancement, and potential economic
benefits.
- governments: primary source  role of commercial entities: expand

2. CHINA AS A SPACE POWER

- 2040, China significant rival  United States in

 space,
 commercial,
 civil,
 military fronts.

- China:

 a path of space technology development independent United States and Europe

 own set of foreign partners participating in Chinese-led space activities

- Chinese space services

 Beidou satellite navigation system

 use around the world as an alternative to Western options.

3. SPACE SUPPORTING GOVERNMENT AND MILITARY NEEDS

- Enhanced space services + new technology: applications + civil government and commercial use.

- Commercial or foreign government space services could be denied in conflict.

4. ON-ORBIT ACTIVITIES BECOME ROUTINE

- Routine on-orbit servicing, assembly, and manufacturing activities (advanced autonomy and additive
manufacturing)

 Support national space systems and international efforts

- Commercial companies: on-orbit services

 Repair
 remote surve relocation
 refueling
 debris removal.

- On-orbit service:

 upgrade satellites
 extend their functional lives
 allow for new types of space structures (extremely large or complex instruments)
 Need government support

5. AI GOES TO SPACE

- AI:

 operation of large satellite constellations

 space situational awareness capabilities
 fusion and analysis of enormous volumes of high-quality
 continuously collected data

(Support by hyperconnected space and ground systems)