Autos Buses Camión Porcentaje de C

Año TPDS
%A %B %C C2P
1997 1611 41 10 49 16.49
1998 1717 44 10 46 16.49
1999 1437 47 5 48 16.49
2000 1648 51 9 40 16.49
2001 1536 45 10 45 16.49
2002 1426 43 12 45 16.49
2003 1755 44 7 49 16.49
2004 1925 45 14 41 16.49
2005 1796 38 16 46 16.49
2006 2297 43 14 43 16.49
2007 2301 39 13 48 16.76
2008 1810 39 15 46 20.4
2009 1941 43 14 43 22.13
2010 2221 45 13 42 21.15
2011 2099 34 13 53 18.98
2012 2356 37 13 50 18.98
2013 2286 37 13 50 18.98
2014 2547 37 12 51 18.98
2015 2962 38 12 50 18.98
2016 3038 40 11 49 18.98
2017 3113 42 10 48 18.98
2018 3259 43 12 45 18.98

FACTORES DE EQUIVALENCIA DE CARGA

TIPO DE MOP UNICAUCA
INV-2004 6000.00
VEHICULO INGEROUT 1996 f(x) = 142.79667569214 x − 283072.6064
C2P 1.14 1.14 1.01 R² = 0.830007485783794
C2G 1.14 3.44 2.72
C3 2.4 3.76 3.72
5000.00
C2-S1 3.37 3.72
C4 3.67 6.73 3.72
C3-S1 2.22 3.72
C2-S2 3.42 3.72
C3-S2 4.67 4.4 4.88 4000.00

C3-S3 5 4.72 5.23

BUS-P600 0.02 0.4 0.4
BUS-P900 0.2 1 1
BUSETA 0.05 0.4 3000.00

2000.00
3000.00

2000.00

1000.00

0.00
1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 20
 Porcentaje de Camiones
N80
C2G C3-C4 C5 C6
36.77 14.38 9.33 23.03 2814.56
36.77 14.38 9.33 23.03 2826.60
36.77 14.38 9.33 23.03 2390.41
36.77 14.38 9.33 23.03 2364.16
36.77 14.38 9.33 23.03 2477.00
36.77 14.38 9.33 23.03 2328.13
36.77 14.38 9.33 23.03 3013.49
36.77 14.38 9.33 23.03 2922.49
36.77 14.38 9.33 23.03 3064.42
36.77 14.38 9.33 23.03 3641.67
38.84 15.21 7.15 22.05 3936.92
32.24 13.57 7.94 25.86 3042.16
34.28 13.72 5.94 23.93 2949.00
30.28 15.16 8.89 24.52 3383.28
35.97 12.78 6.73 25.54 3954.77
35.97 12.78 6.73 25.54 4205.06
35.97 12.78 6.73 25.54 4080.13
35.97 12.78 6.73 25.54 4604.79
35.97 12.78 6.73 25.54 5257.05
35.97 12.78 6.73 25.54 5260.15
35.97 12.78 6.73 25.54 5256.73
35.97 12.78 6.73 25.54 5244.87

Proyección

f(x) = 142.79667569214 x − 283072.606467725

R² = 0.830007485783794
6 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030 2032 2034 2036 2038 204
2030 2032 2034 2036 2038 2040 2042
X med 2007.5

No N80 N80_proyec
Año Yi obs Yi Modelo (Nj)
Xi
OBSERVADO MODELADO
1 1997 2814.56 2098.60
2 1998 2826.60 2241.40
3 1999 2390.41 2384.20
4 2000 2364.16 2527.00
5 2001 2477.00 2669.80
6 2002 2328.13 2812.60
7 2003 3013.49 2955.40
8 2004 2922.49 3098.20
9 2005 3064.42 3241.00
10 2006 3641.67 3383.80
11 2007 3936.92 3526.60
12 2008 3042.16 3669.40
13 2009 2949.00 3812.20
14 2010 3383.28 3955.00
15 2011 3954.77 4097.80
16 2012 4205.06 4240.60
17 2013 4080.13 4383.40
18 2014 4604.79 4526.20
19 2015 5257.05 4669.00
20 2016 5260.15 4811.80
21 2017 5256.73 4954.60
22 2018 5244.87 5097.40
23 2019 5240.20
24 2020 5383.00
25 2021 5525.80
26 2022 5668.60
27 2023 5811.40
28 2024 5954.20
29 2025 6097.00
30 2026 6239.80
31 2027 6382.60
32 2028 6525.40
33 2029 6668.20
34 2030 6811.00
35 2031 6953.80
36 2032 7096.60
37 2033 7239.40
38 2034 7382.20
39 2035 7525.00
40 2036 7667.80
41 2037 7810.60
 42 2038 7953.40
43 2039 8096.20
44 2040 8239.00
45 2041 8381.80
46 2042 8524.60

244333.60

s= 430.05
n= 22

CONFIABILIDAD Zr
70% 0.524
75% 0.674
80% 0.842
85% 1.037
90% 1.282
95% 1.645
96% 1.751
97% 1.881
98% 2.055
99% 2.328

N=

Departamento:
Tomar info desde 1997 hasta 2017
Proyeccion 20 años

Cauca estrecho - el bordo 2503

 n=
24

(Yi obs - Yi Modelo (Nj))^2 (Xi - X med)^2 (Xj - X med)^2 s pronostico=

512594.605 110.25
342461.998 90.25
38.572 72.25
26518.104 56.25
37171.430 42.25
234709.569 30.25
3374.175 20.25
30875.224 12.25
31181.953 6.25
66497.127 2.25
168365.577 0.25
393428.340 0.25
745109.610 2.25
326866.813 6.25
20457.035 12.25
1262.794 20.25
91975.148 30.25
6177.056 42.25
345805.606 56.25
201014.276 72.25
91283.948 90.25
21746.734 110.25
2.25 0.22
0.25 0.21
0.25 0.21
2.25 0.22
6.25 0.24
12.25 0.26
20.25 0.30
30.25 0.33
42.25 0.37
56.25 0.41
72.25 0.45
90.25 0.50
110.25 0.54
132.25 0.58
156.25 0.63
182.25 0.68
210.25 0.72
240.25 0.77
272.25 0.81
 306.25 0.86
342.25 0.91
380.25 0.95
420.25 1.00
462.25 1.04

3698915.69 440.25
 Confiabilidad
0.7
Cj
Zr
s pronostico=
0.524 s pronostico*Zr

93.01 0.524 96.45 3480.25

88.38 0.524 46.31 3618.25
88.38 0.524 46.31 3761.05
93.01 0.524 48.74 3908.65
101.64 0.524 53.26 4060.41
113.37 0.524 59.40 4215.36
127.33 0.524 66.72 4372.64
142.88 0.524 74.87 4531.56
159.55 0.524 83.60 4691.65
177.02 0.524 92.76 4852.57
195.08 0.524 102.22 5014.10
213.59 0.524 111.92 5176.09
232.42 0.524 121.79 5338.42
251.52 0.524 131.80 5501.03
270.82 0.524 141.91 5663.84
290.29 0.524 152.11 5826.83
309.89 0.524 162.38 5989.95
329.60 0.524 172.71 6153.19
349.39 0.524 183.08 6316.52
369.27 0.524 193.50 6479.93
389.21 0.524 203.94 6643.41
409.20 0.524 214.42 6806.94
429.24 0.524 224.92 6970.53
449.33 0.524 235.45 7134.15

52495