War against Ukraine, the first month - Russian

Failure or part of the Scenario?! The Third Option.

(The first paper. Updated on 06 March 2022, 09:40. Initially published on 06 March
2022)

The key point, which the free world has failed so many times
to take care of, is the understanding of the amount of
courage, bravery and sacrifice people paid fighting their own
and external totalitarian, inhuman, brutal leadership.
Remember, failing to forget this point is, in fact, the birth of
the next Putin, Stalin, Hitler. They are not brought by
chance into our lives, but born out of our ignorance for
someone else's pain, suffering and sacrifice.

One prediction seems more fact than a prediction.

Good, inspiring words, intentions, and thoughts are good, but
never enough to defend values, lives, and a future.

One thing is clear - if the Russian aggression is not stopped, it is clear that all potential
aggressiveness around the Globe will receive the message that it is time to act.
Obviously, the price to stop ongoing Russian aggression is unbelievably high. And, it is
even more obvious that the price to stop following aggressive actions from not only
Russia, but all aggressors having in mind that they could act in orchestrated manner is
much, much higher. It is also obvious that saying price means human lives, rights to a
future, rights to freedom of choice and all kinds of human suffering.

Nobody ever wants to pay a high price. There is a strong natural desire to postpone, to
rely on a miracle as there is no chance to rely on humanity, logic, and mercy. The only
way to take time to consider possible courses for action is to continuously and
uninterruptedly watch how Ukrainians are dying. It will help those who are still in doubt
to reduce the time necessary to get ready to act actively. Do not close your eyes - it has
never helped anyone!

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Every second the world postpones stopping the Russian aggression in Ukraine is raising
the price, in geometrical progression!

Is it a Russian failure or part of the Scenario?

Lack of understanding is the path to more tragic consequences.

The reality of the first month of the Russian Aggression surprised western military
experts hugely as all their initial estimations have been changed widely, publicly
recognizing the dramatic deviations between their expectations and realities in the field.
Nobody expected that the Russians would lose dozens and dozens of aircraft and
helicopters, hundreds of tanks and armoured vehicles and thousands of soldiers.

What is the source of such an outcome? Courage and bravery of Ukrainians – yes.
Unprecedented international support – yes. Russian unpreparedness, unprofessionalism,
lack of motivation – possible. Those reasons are widespread throughout the media.
Those reasons are something we sincerely would like to believe which is why we repeat
them. The question is “Did we miss anything? Did we miss anything critical?” The
answer is yes, and it is paramount and could cost the lives of a lot to ordinary people!!!

The most important reason driving the current madness is the mentality of the Russian
political elite, which remains unchanged for the last hundred years. Russia wants this
bloody war to be as bloody as possible, as inhuman as possible and it wants it to last a
long time – weeks, months. Their barbarian expectations are all, everybody must know
and remember that Russians are merciless, brutal, and unstoppable, without exception. It
is also the message for the Russian people, that there is no chance of internal resistance
as the stakes are high. That is step one of the scenario. The motto is “we are not
searching for humanity, for morality, for love or respect – we are searching for total
fear”. The first consequence is that there is zero effectiveness to appeal to humanity or
morality.

Look at the period 22 February – 03March, having in mind “Step One”. Russia sent
unprepared troops attacking along a line of 2,000 km simultaneously, against all basic
principles of Military Art – the goals are:

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1. Spill first blood in great amounts from their own troops to ensure that there is no
way back for Russian society. Now, Russians are going to fight not only to
overthrow “illegitimate government” (the Russian leadership`s mantra), but to
take revenge for the killed Russians. This is important because there was not any
widespread desire and will to fight Ukrainians in Russian society and Russian
military in particular.

2. In contrast to another Russian mantra within 2013-February 2022, there were no

foreign mercenaries in Ukraine. The brutality of the Russian invasion has
convinced people around Europe and others to come to Ukraine to defend Ukraine
along with Ukrainians. President Zelensky publicly announced that Ukraine asks
and welcomes anybody who is ready to fight the Russian aggression along with
Ukrainians to protect Europe's safety and freedom. Plus, public speeches of some
officials (British Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Office) that they will
support individuals who would like to join Ukrainians in fighting Russian
aggression. This is important as Russian propaganda now has what they were
dreaming of. Now Russian propaganda will repeat again and again that foreign
mercenaries led by NATO are going to invade Russia as they take full control
over Ukraine. It is very important as it is the main justification for the Russian
leadership before the Russian society for the price ordinary Russians are going to
pay, as they must protect the Russian nation and its existence.

3. Russia has already started to flatten a few Ukrainian cities. The way they are
committing the crime is intentionally open. There is little or no military sense for
such suffering and destruction, except one, they want to force the international
community as well as Russian society to observe the level of their determination
and mercilessness. They want everybody to remember who they are, that is why it
is intentionally protracted over time. They control and limit the level of firepower
they can produce to lengthen the waiting for the blood and suffering to reach the
limit determined by them. Again, the goal is to directly threaten the international
community and to threaten Russian society to let them know that Stalin is back
and concentration camps or Gulags will consume the bravest of people even if
there are millions.

4. Committing crimes openly against humanity, observing and enjoying statements

and promises by western officials that NATO and western leadership
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 establishment will ensure that the western military will not take part in direct
confrontation with the Russian military. The goal is to show that western power is
limited. Factually, it is a direct and open humiliation of western power, which
claimed over the previous few decades that it is capable of projecting its power
everywhere. In reality, it appeared that it is Russia, exactly Russia, who can limit
western powers as no other case in recent history. This message is digested by
everyone and everywhere around the globe, by politicians and ordinary citizens. It
is a message to Taiwan to other countries that they will be left alone to die despite
all words and promises of support by western powers. In short, the value of
western promises is Zero. Therefore, it is paramount for Russians and their team
players to ensure that the war is bloody enough and lasts long enough to let
everybody around the world understand the message – this is the tragic reality of
what is happening.

Two possible ways to stop the tragedy

The high price for a solution should not surprise anyone if the
existence itself is at stake and there is no better solution as
well as no time to postpone.

There are potentially three major approaches to stop the tragedy, however, there are only
two practical lines of effort. Diplomacy and appeals to humanity are not an option any
more as the amount of blood, destruction and suffering which have been inflicted on
Ukrainians already overcome the threshold on the road back for Russian leadership as
well as for thousands of Russian servicemen and officials. Moreover, enormous human
suffering and unimaginable destruction are part of the Russian Scenario to threaten the
world.

Option1. The internal rebellion in Russia can stop the tragedy. It is a less risky line of
effort, but it is a less probable one. Russia has already become a totalitarian state long
before the tragedy started. Russian civil society has been brutally suppressed several
times within the past decades including protests against the war in Georgia in 2008,
aggression in Ukraine in 2014 and several other protests to defend civil rights, etc.
Moreover, Russia has a long history of civil society suppression, when Russian

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totalitarian machines were mastering their famous, well-known expertise in suppressing
dozens of millions of their own citizens.

Still, the possibility to raise Russian citizens to stop the madness is possible, and in light
of limited options is the main approach to stop the unfolding tragedy. There should be no
intermediate terms like some or significant steps taken to raise Russian masses to stop
the disastrous aggression from within. There is no time to precisely adjust the amount of
effort to the minimum necessary, as gradual adjustment leads to the strategic loss of time
and initiative. This approach has already failed leading to the ongoing tragedy with
dozens of thousands of lives lost so far. All possible actions should be taken
immediately as the cost grows exponentially day by day. The only term is a set of
actions, which guarantees that Russian society will rise to stop the tyranny.

The key point, which the west has failed so many times to take care of is
understanding of the amount of courage, bravery and sacrifice people will need to
pay fighting their own totalitarian, inhuman, brutal leadership. Remember, failing
to forget this point of ignorance to someone`s sacrifice is the birth of the next Putin,
Stalin, Hitler. They are not brought by chance into our lives, but born by our
ignorance for someone else's pain, suffering and sacrifice.

The second option is an ultimatum. Yes, it sounds very dangerous but what is the
difference between the Caribbean crises and the ongoing Ukrainian crises?
❖ At the time of the Caribbean crisis Soviet nuclear weapons were relocated to the
border with the US. It is clear that nuclear weapons will be located in Ukraine and
Belorussian territory should western power allow Russia to take control of
Ukraine. Yes, Russian nuclear weapons have not been relocated yet but that is
only a matter of time, as it was publicly announced by at least Belorussian leader.
❖ In both cases, the sides publicly threatened to use nuclear weapons. Putin has
already put Russian nuclear forces (Strategic Deterrence Forces) on high alert.
Putin has already publicly threatened to use nuclear force against European
nations, NATO members and others should they confront Russia in the invasion
of Ukraine.
It is true that this option is catastrophically dangerous. True, the question is what is the
threshold for the free world to consider this option? NATO countries? If yes, the free
world will willingly and consciously hand over the rest of the world, which does not
belong to Putin, strengthening the aggressor. If so, the western position will be much
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weaker. Everybody knows, there is little or no sense in negotiating with terrorists. Yes,
this is an option, which everybody likes to avoid. However, the truth is that Russians
with their international supporters will not stop. Should we let them strengthen
themselves before there is no more space to step back?

People are intelligent: let’s list the facts

I will intentionally omit the minor facts, intentions, promises and expectations as they
are directed at creating the legal justification. We should take into account all sides,
NOT just Russia’s.

1. December 2021. Top Russian leadership repeatedly and intentionally publicly

(recollect the emphasis on written negotiations) announced their official grievances
regarding NATO and European security policies violating Russian security. The quantity
of Russian troops relocated to the close vicinity to the Ukraine border reached 100000 -
150000. There was no talk about a West vs Russia direct confrontation, in fact the
opposite is true, there were lots of promises that a united response is the only approach
to prevent tragedy in Europe. Only sanctions and potential strengthening of NATO
countries were discussed. Iran and China's confrontation with the west continues to
accumulate growing tensions. There are public signs that the China and Iran influences
are growing and official behavior was tougher as well as bilateral ties between each
other including Russia.

2. January 2021. Active discussions in Europe and the US regarding Russian demands
with only one option in essence (as the other options are mere simulation of efforts).
Every or almost every top NATO, European and other official were trying to pretend to
be great negotiators and conflict mediators with public announcements that they have
reached relevant or significant achievements on the way to the disagreement solution.
Regarding the nuclear agreement with Iran, Western leadership continues to announce
that there are just a few weeks remaining to reach the nuclear deal or it will be irrelevant
(the only difference is that the word months was changed to weeks). There are public
delegations, top official visits, bilateral agreements signed between Russia, China, and
Iran.

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3. February 2022. The US president announced that Russia is planning to invade
Ukraine. The US publicly emphasizes that there are no circumstances under which the
US military would directly confront Russian military. Immediately after, every EU and
NATO country started to repeat officially and publicly the same: "There is no way
NATO or EU would come into direct military confrontation regardless of the scale and
no matter what happens in Ukraine". THIS IS THE MOMENT WHEN WEST
SHOWS THE GREEN LIGHT TO RUSSIA, CHINA AND IRAN as well as others.
That is also a sign to their own citizens to be prepared to do nothing while enjoying
massacre as well as official justification and legitimacy for western powers' leadership
decisions as people accepted it by voting silently (voting silently does not change
anything formally or informally!). UKRAINIANS RECEIVED ADDITIONAL SIGN
AND HOPE - "UNPRECEDENTED INTERNATIONAL SUPPORT" (quite vague and
obscure term in light of imminent threat knowing that support without military
involvement has never prevented massacre).

Digits have the ability to sober you up

People tend to believe in what they want disregarding
the facts and reality. It never helped anyone…

Based on the general principles of the Military Art, a military operation is considered
successful if personnel and weaponry losses are less than 30% as it is considered
possible to replenish, restaff to safeguard military capabilities of the units. Yes, it is
called - ‘successful operation with heavy losses’.

According to public estimation, Russians have lost about 10,000 personnel, about 100
aircraft and helicopters, and about 500 hundreds armoured vehicles. Even if these
numbers are precise, it means that Russia’s losses are about 5% personnel (out of 200
thousand reported before). At the same time, Russians were reinforced by Belorussian
military and other Belorussian agencies, which were not considered before. Another
truth is that Ukrainians have no source for reinforcement meaning that what is lost is
lost.

The main conclusion is that Russians will keep full capabilities to continue the
massacre for weeks, which sounds ……. I lack words to finish the sentence.
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Additionally, there are ongoing Russian talks with former Soviet republics to join the
Russian aggression in Ukraine. In the case that former Soviet countries join the Russian
aggression, the Russian striking force will be strengthened by dozens of thousands of
personnel and logistic capabilities. That is another dangerous point in light of the current
western stance, as those countries are pushed by professional western experts and think
tanks into the Russian alliance. In essence, the former Soviet countries clearly
understand their geographical location, the value of promises of protection by western
powers, as well as watching their worst expectations unfold right in front of them in
Ukraine. Should no change take place in western response - imminent consequence will
happen in the nearest future - Russia will be reinforced by former Soviet countries. This
dark perspective means growing Russian influence in terms of everything: political
power, votes in UN, geographical control, resources, military strength and potential
as well as justification and strengthening of its internal rhetoric and propaganda.
Returning to the growing price for the free world response to the Russian aggression,
this short-term perspective means multiplication of current Russian threat to the free
world as well as the price for the future free people response.

Who and How should they deal with Putin?

Those who have handled the problem before and while it
was transforming (for 30years !!!) into a tragedy have
no chance to continue to resolve it as stakes are
measured by thousands of lives, understanding that
there is zero signs of personal responsibility and public
accountability so far.

How is it possible that Russia dared to publicly threaten the whole world in February
2022? How it could be possible taking into account that the former USSR collapsed just
30 years ago, the first major Russian financial crisis happened 25 years ago, the second
13 years ago, and the third 7 years ago. How could it be possible for Russia to threaten
the NATO alliance, which grew two times from 16 to 30 member states since the former
USSR collapse when 15 countries declared their independence leaving Russia's sphere
of influence? There is no need to add anything to those questions. The current Russian
aggressive stance and aggressive behavior is not something which appeared somewhere
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somehow within one day. In contrast, it is something that has been growing for not
years but decades.

All possible answers could be grouped into two major categories: it happened due to the
mistakes of western powers OR the aggressor was intentionally recreated for some
reason. It is clear and obvious even before the right answer is revealed that it is not about
one mistake, on the contrary, it is about systematic misunderstanding, ineffectiveness,
and wrongdoing even if some players were acting intentionally as the tragedy was
unfolding for almost 30 years. Those who were dealing with the situation during these
30 years, all thinktanks, experts, professionals, officials should have little influence on
dealing with the tragedy.

It is critically vital to understand the answer as soon as possible. It is vital to reject any
attempts to postpone or skip the full understanding of routes and courses which led to
the ongoing tragedy in Europe. The reason for such harsh statements is clear - those
who led the world to these crises must not take any part in the conflict resolution as
it will increase suffering and deepen the crisis. One cannot change for the better
unless he/she is brave and mature enough to recognize mistakes and accept personal
responsibility.

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Kostiantyn Tkachuk
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