4/21/22, 1:02 AM Front-loaded imports signal LA-LB congestion relapse

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Home > Front-loaded imports signal LA-LB congestion relapse

Bill Mongelluzzo, Senior Editor | Apr 18, 2022 5:36PM EDT

Los Angeles-Long Beach terminal operators say already full warehouses will again become the
primary bottlenecks if volumes spike. Photo credit: Shutterstock.com.

The ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach are bracing for another cargo surge later this spring as
earlier-than-usual back-to-school and peak season imports collide with an anticipated backlog of
freight from mainland China once Shanghai emerges from its COVID-19 lockdowns. 

Meanwhile, warehouses in Southern California are already operating near capacity handling
merchandise for inventory replenishment, which means they have little space available for the next
import surge. That means arriving imports will be forced to sit on the docks until space becomes
available at the warehouses. 

Gene Seroka, executive director of the Port of Los Angeles, told a virtual press conference on Apr.
12 there were 46 container ships headed to Southern California, which is about normal for this time
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4/21/22, 1:02 AM Front-loaded imports signal LA-LB congestion relapse

of year. But that number will increase soon enough as already-arriving back-to-school shipments,
followed by early holiday merchandise imports, eventually collide with a delayed spike in shipments
from Shanghai when COVID-19 lockdowns restricting goods movement in and out of the world’s
busiest port are lifted. 

“We expect a pretty quick recovery [in volumes],” said Seroka. 

Although retailers are projecting a 5.3 percent year-over-year (y/y) decline in US imports in May
owing to the COVID-19 lockdowns in Shanghai, they project a rebound beginning in June. Global
Port Tracker, which is published by the National Retail Federation and Hackett Associates,
forecasts that US imports will increase 5.2 percent in June, 5.6 percent in July, and 3.3 percent in
August y/y. 

Retailers ‘burned’ last year 

Imports for the new school year beginning in September already started arriving in April, said Scott
Weiss, vice president of business development at third-party logistics provided Whiplash. Back-to-
school merchandise traditionally began to arrive at the ports in May, he said. 

“A lot of people got burned last peak season, so retailers are bringing in as much product as they
can now,” said Weiss. 

Weiss also noted that inventory replenishment continues at a brisk pace as high inflation has not
affected consumer spending. He said some retailers are experiencing out-of-stock issues even
though their warehouses remain full.  

Higher gasoline prices, however, are affecting labor availability in the warehouse sector, Weiss said.
Some workers in the hourly wage category feel they cannot afford current gasoline prices, so they
are simply not showing up to work, he said. 

“For anyone who’s earning about $15 an hour, the price of gas is a big hit,” said Weiss. 

Contact Bill Mongelluzzo at bill.mongelluzzo@ihsmarkit.com and follow him on Twitter:

@billmongelluzzo. 

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