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The Impact of Pandemic COVID-19 on the Indian Banking System

Article · December 2020

DOI: 10.24327/ijrsr.2020.1110.5578

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 Available Online at http://www.recentscientific.com
International Journal of
CODEN: IJRSFP (USA)
Recent Scientific
International Journal of Recent Scientific Research Research
Vol. 11, Issue, 10 (B), pp. 39873-39883, October, 2020
ISSN: 0976-3031 DOI: 10.24327/IJRSR
Research Article
THE IMPACT OF PANDEMIC COVID-19 ON THE INDIAN BANKING SYSTEM
Dr. Asif Perwej
School of Management Studies, Sangam University, Bhilwara, Rajasthan, India
DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.24327/ijrsr.2020.1110.5578

ARTICLE INFO ABSTRACT

Article History:
Received 6th July, 2020
Received in revised form 15th
August,, 2020
Accepted 12th September, 2020
Published online 28th October, 2020
Key Words:
COVID-19, Pandemic, Indian Banks,
Finance, Non Performing Assets (NPAs),
Visualization, Economy, Reserve Bank of
India (RBI).
The COVID-19 pandemic could be one of the most serious challenges faced by the financial
services industry in nearly a century. The COVID-19 impact on banking will be severe fall in
demand, lower incomes, and production shutdowns and will adversely affect the business of banks.
The situation is exacerbated by staff shortages, inadequate digital maturity, and pressure on the
existing infrastructure as firms scramble to deal with the impact of COVID-19 on financial services.
Banks certainly have their hands full in light of the novel coronavirus outbreak COVID-19.
Borrowers and businesses face job losses, slowed sales, and declining profits as the virus continues
to spread around the world. Banking customers are likely to start seeking financial relief. An
obvious way that pandemics can impact financial systems is through their enormous economic costs.
To managing the direct economic impact of the coronavirus, banks need to have a plan in place to
protect employees and customers from its spread. Many banks are already starting to encourage
remote working of some employees. In this paper, we are aimed to demonstrate an impact of
pandemic covid-19 on the banking and financial sector. India’s coronavirus outbreak threatens a
years-long clean up of its financial system, according to the Indian bank. Banks sit at the heart of the
economy and provide funding to corporate and individuals. Their stability is crucial to keep the
system up and running.

Copyright © Dr. Asif Perwej, 2020, this is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons
Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is
properly cited.

INTRODUCTION The adverse effects of the COVID-19 pandemic are trickling

Globally, the corona virus outbreak now has hit millions of
lives with thousands of deaths across the world. The rising
threat of this virus continues increasing as everyday new cases
are coming out [1]. However, countries affected with corona
virus are now taking major steps to address [2] it using AI and
Big data technologies [3]. According to the World Health
Organization (WHO) [4], AI and Big data played [5] a
significant role in COVID-19. The ongoing spread of COVID-
19 has become one of the biggest threats to the global economy
and financial markets. To contain the impact of the corona
virus outbreak, India, like many countries across the globe, is
taking several measures, including a nationwide lockdown,
limiting movement of the entire population, shutting down
public places and transport, and urging the public to stay
indoors, maintain social distance, and work from home [6]. The
resulting economic disruption is huge and the short term
decline in activity for businesses, both large and small,
considerable.
down to major sectors of the Indian economy, with
manufacturing, auto, retail, aviation and hospitality bearing the
brunt of the lockdown [7]. This in turn has affected fast-
growing digital payments which are closely linked to the
aforementioned sectors. Shut shops, travel bans and reduced
discretionary spends by consumers are further negatively
impacting digital payments. The rise in the cases of COVID-19,
Io T software solutions are facing substantial hit [8]. There are a lot
of verticals of Io T, such as [9] manufacturing, transportation,
travel hospitality, where all the operations are put on hold. But
organizations have changed their priorities, such as
organizations want to monitor the health and wellness of
employees as they are working from home. Such use cases are
evolved in this COVID-19 pandemic. The new use cases have
been generated along with the application areas where demand
for Io T software solutions has witnessed a huge increase. The
data is necessary for our understanding of the world, and
particularly for the emergence of phenomena such as the
COVID-19 outbreak. Data visualization is having a big
moment during the COVID-19 pandemic [10]. Social media

*Corresponding author: Dr. Asif Perwej

School of Management Studies, Sangam University, Bhilwara, Rajasthan, India
 International Journal of Recent Scientific Research Vol. 11, Issue, 10 (B), pp. 39873-39883, October, 2020

feeds are inundated with infection heat maps and charts consider financial and reporting considerations around going
depicting transmission patterns. concern, liquidity and credit risk assessment, etc. There may be
large-scale business disruptions that can potentially give rise to
The world has witnessed several epidemics such as the Spanish
liquidity issues for certain entities. This might also have
Flu of 1918, outbreak of HIV/AIDS, SARS (Severe Acute
consequential impacts on the credit quality along the supply
Respiratory Syndrome), MERS (Middle East Respiratory
chain. Insurers are getting impacted in terms of their assets and
Syndrome) and Ebola. In the past, India has had to deal with
liability reflected in the balance sheet. This, as a result,
diseases such as the small pox, plague and polio. All of these
threatens their business continuity as well as future growth
individually have been pretty severe episodes. However the
[17]. The pandemic is an acid test for financial institutions and
Covid-19 [11] which originated in China in December 2019
more so insurers as a stress that they have tested and
and over the next few months rapidly spread to almost all
scrutinized in their financial risk analysis, operational risk
countries of the world can potentially turn out to be the biggest
analysis, and business continuity planning.
health crisis in our history [12]. Many experts have already
called this a Black Swan event for the global economy. India Worldwide Banking System and Influence of Covid-19
recorded the first case of the disease on January 30, 2020. Since
The COVID-19 pandemic has impacted nearly every aspect of
then the cases have increased steadily and significantly. The
life around the globally. Decreased productivity and lockdowns
corona virus related worries are likely to aggravate difficulties
have already started to take a toll on the financials of the
for Indian banks [13], ratings agency Fitch said, revising down
corporate sector. Supply chain disruptions, manufacturing
the operating environment score for the critical sector by a
hindrances and crippled health systems need a hefty public
notch. The score has been revised to “BB” from “BB+” earlier,
fund & stimulus to continue operations smoothly. Income from
the agency said, pointing out that COVID-19 outbreak ups the
tourism, entertainment sectors among many others has already
worries for the sector, which is already reeling under weak
crippled the economic situation. We have already seen
business and consumer confidence. In this paper we are
humongous losses in the financial markets of up to Rs 59.87
attempts to dwell deeper into COVID 19’s impact on the
trillion due to this pandemic. Investor sentiments are at an all
financial sector, more specifically the impact on banks, banking
time low and it is also becoming evident how difficult it is
technology companies.
going to be for banks all over the world to maintain good assets
Moody's Revises Indian Banking after Covid-19 Influence and good earnings. Due to the shutdowns and income
slowdown, many repayments of loans, especially in Europe,
Rating agency Moody’s revised the Indian banking system to
United States, may cease leaving the banks dry [18]. What
negative from stable, citing disruptions in economic activity
were earlier their assets now would become a big risk. United
caused by the COVID-19 outbreak and an ensuing decline in
States and Europe can already be seen as the emerging
asset quality. It said asset quality will deteriorate across
epicenter after China started to recover from this economic
corporate, small, and medium enterprises and retail segments,
shock. Italy, the world's second best health services country, is
leading to pressure on profitability and capital for lenders.
in a socio-economic disaster since Corona virus hit the country.
According to Moody’s, [14] the stress among non-bank
The situation has continued to escalate even after total
financiers will limit their capacity to lend, further hindering
lockdowns and borders being completely shut down. The Fitch
India’s economic growth which was on a decline prior to the
ratings agency already warned of Italian banking system coping
covid-19 outbreak. According to Moody’s, a sharp decline in
mechanism with COVID-19. Then countries that were already
economic activity and a rise in unemployment will lead to a
sliding into recession like Greece increase investors worry
deterioration of household and corporate finances, which in
more. People have put large portfolios in United States or
turn will result in increases in delinquencies [15]. The rating
Europe and are now in a fix because of the pandemic emptying
agency said the rise in provisions and fall in revenues will hurt
their pockets as financial markets crash all over the world.
banks’ profitability, leading to a deterioration of capitalization.
Bank shares have been seeing a sharp decline showing the
If the government makes more capital infusions into public
shaking confidence in the global financial system. Supply chain
sector banks (PSBs), as it has in the past few years, it will
disruptions, manufacturing hindrances and crippled health
mitigate capital pressure for them. The COVID-19 is an
systems need a hefty public fund & stimulus to continue
unfolding event bringing uncertainty to every aspect of the
operations smoothly [19]. Income from tourism, entertainment
society. Safety of the people is the utmost priority along with
sectors among many others has already crippled the economic
the continuity of business and providing consistent and
situation. Factors like these are all adding up to strain the
transparent financial reporting to stakeholders. The
global economy which might also have its repercussions in the
Government [16] of India and RBI has introduced various
year ahead. The best of India’s companies and banks are in a
economic and fiscal stimulus measures to tide over the
spot as the pandemic related lockdown brings business to a
COVID-19 crisis. To navigate through these unprecedented
halt. In an economy ravaged by pay-cuts and lay-offs, experts
times the BFSI needs to focus on liquidity, credit risk, well-
expect financiers both for consumer and corporate loans to see
being of its employees along with the quality of financial
delayed repayments and probably even defaults.
reporting and disclosures. The COVID-19 would impact the
financial statements of the entities in the financial services in Central banks around the world, meanwhile, have already
the areas of business model assessment, post balance sheet proactively intervened to calm markets and show commitment
events and certain other key areas. The Reserve Bank of India to using all possible measures. In its first emergency move
has taken certain measures to give some relief to the lending since the recession in 2008, the US Federal Reserve (the Fed)
institutions in the areas of liquidity, regulation and supervision, recently cut the federal funds rate by 50 basis points. The Fed
and financial markets. In light of these measures, banks need to has also actively intervened in the repo market to add further

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Dr. Asif Perwej, The Impact of Pandemic Covid-19 on the Indian Banking System

liquidity. The Bank of Japan (BoJ), meanwhile, issued an Are Indian Banks Ready to Assimilate Covid-19 Influence
emergency statement signaling that it would inject liquidity
The troubles for Rs 166 lakh crore banking sector are far from
into the market by increasing asset purchases. The People’s
over. A few months ago when bank non-performing assets
Bank of China (PBOC) has also pumped more than US$ 240
(NPAs) declined from its peak of over 10 per cent of the
billion of liquidity into the financial system as a
advances and profitability returned, the telecom AGR (adjusted
countermeasure to the virus. Additionally, the Bank of England
gross revenue) liability and the Yes Bank debacle hit them hard
and the European Central Bank (ECB) have announced various
both in terms of sentiment and loss in market valuations. The
plans to [20] counter COVID-19 in the coming days.
GST came as a shocker as many micro, small and medium
Meanwhile, banking and capital markets firms around the
enterprises (MSMEs) got wiped out and the banks were forced
world are mobilizing and taking steps to minimize COVID-
to restructure many of the loans to MSMEs. In this section, we
19’s effects on day-to-day operations. We do not know the
are analyze how prepared the banking sector is to weather the
long-term implications of COVID-19 for financial markets and
Covid-19 storm, which is playing out in full force globally as
banking and capital markets firms. COVID-19 may further
we speak [23].
accelerate migration to digital channels and connectivity. We
now also assume a more gradual recovery in numerous Indian Public Sector Banks in Consolidation Mode
countries, with continued downside risk to this base-case
The government move to amalgamate 27-odd public sector
scenario. We acknowledge a high degree of uncertainty about
banks (PSBs) into 10 large banks is currently taking place
the rate of spread and peak of the corona virus pandemic [21].
when the Covid-19 is creating yet another direct disruption in
The consensus among health experts is that the pandemic may
sectors such as travel, transportation, tourism, hospitality and
now be at, or near, its peak in some regions, but will remain a
trade etc. The anchor banks such as Union Bank of India,
threat until a vaccine or effective treatment is widely available,
Punjab National Bank, Indian Bank and Canara Bank are in the
which may not occur until the second half of 2021. We are
process of branch and people rationalisation, technology
using this assumption in assessing the economic and credit
integration and stressed loan strategy etc.
implications associated with the pandemic.
Private Sector Banks Not Out of the Woods
The Influence Areas of Covid-19 on Digitization of the India
Banks For long it was PSBs that shared all the blame for poor
corporate governance and leadership, but now private sector's
The banking services in India are classified under the essential
weak links are also exposed. Chanda Kochhar and Rana
services list. Banking and financial institutions were under
Kapoor came under the scanner of investigating agencies for
immense pressure to ensure business-as-usual amidst the
corruption charges or violating the service rules. Similarly, the
lockdown and health crisis. Banking operations such as cash
growing NPAs in their book showed the bad lending practices.
deposits, withdrawals, clearing of cheques and other traditional
Currently, the leadership at large private banks is stabilizing
teller services had to be executed by maintaining a safe
with a new strategy in place. Many private banks are in the
distance of at-least a meter. Social media was abuzz with a
process of capital rising. In fact, the equity dilution will be
bank employee’s effort to handle cheques with tongs and
higher now as their valuation has fallen big time over the last
sanitize them with a steam iron. The operational and technical
one month.
challenges for both the customers and employees highlighted a
lacuna and the general lack of agility in our banking systems Loss of Faith in the Banking Entities
when faced with an emergency situation. The immediate
For the first time in many decades, a private sector bank saw a
learning’s from the current COVID-19 situation will add the
moratorium being imposed by the RBI. A moratorium by the
much-needed rigor towards digitizing and optimizing the
regulator is the last resort as PCA framework is available to
bank’s backend operations. This will eliminate the dependency
nurse the bank back on health. Yes Bank's balance size of over
on manual entries, person led reviews i.e. paper and employee
Rs 3 lakh crore was enough to create panic in the market. The
intervention within banks. When the COVID-19 situation is
debacle of multi-state cooperative bank Punjab & Maharashtra
past us, it is expected that the Indian Banks [22] will shift gears
Cooperative Bank (PMC) Bank and Yes Bank has once again
to move away from traditional forms of banking. The
raised the trust issue in the banking industry. The government,
traditional banks will stand the opportunity to leapfrog
on its part, has also raised the deposit insurance limit from Rs 1
adopting cutting edge banking technologies and blaze the
lakh to Rs 5 lakh per depositor per bank. In fact, the banks in
digital transformation trail. At present, 27 of Indian public
India are well capitalized with the exception of few but the
sector (PSU) banks are on a path of consolidation to 10 large
recent debacle has done the damage by jolting the small
banks. It is an opportune time for the PSU’s to explore better
depositors' trust in the banking industry.
technology integration and customer adoption. Other Indian
banks (both public and private) which are already online with The Resolution of Undeservedly Loan is Stuck
some core banking functions will focus on a complete
The IBC is a path-breaking law for the banking sector as it is
transition by digitization of all their functions, processes, and
creating a deterrent in the market for defaulters. The banks
systems. Legacy Indian banks and financial institutions will
have made all the NPA provisioning in the books, but the
also look at collaboration with the new entrants and fintechs.
recovery is still far away. While the NCLT courts are flooded
Such necessity-driven partnerships will drive innovation and
with cases, there is lack of interest from buyer’s especially
jointly reap the benefits of the large customer base of the banks
global distressed funds because of too many amendments in a
and the new technologies of the fintechs.
short period of time and legal challenges at every stage. The
buyers are probably waiting for clearer signals from the
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economy, which is on a downhill journey. Distinctly, the banks
are not in the best of shape to take a large hit from Covid-19
impacted industries.
The Biggest Business Impacts of the Covid-19 Pandemic
The COVID-19 pandemic continues to spread globally,
Business Insider Intelligence and e-Marketer are continuing to
work to analyze the business impact of the virus across each of
our coverage areas. Corona virus is shaking up business and
consumer behavior on a massive scale. Both the public and
private sectors are scrambling to slow the spread of the illness
and contain COVID-19 [24] infection, while the full economic
consequences of this black swan event are still unclear, we
know that the effects that the virus and the drastic measures
being taken to contain it are already precipitating change across
industries. Here are the top three ways Business Insider
Intelligence and e-Marketer analysts think the pandemic is set
to impact telecoms and technology, digital media, payments
and commerce, fintech, banking, and healthcare sector. Many
organizations are already taking “no regret” actions to emerge
from the pandemic stronger. These leaders are facing the crisis
with a spirit of reinvention accelerating digital transformation,
establishing variable cost structures, and implementing agile
operations. But in recent weeks, the landscape has changed,
with the pandemic continuing to peak in some markets and
returning in others.
Customer Service and Guidance
As a result of social distancing, an increasing number of
consumers are using online banking channels to manage their
money. This is likely to result in a more permanent shift in
customer preferences to digital channels and an increased
demand for digital services. It’s important for banks to be
accessible to all consumers, including the elderly or those not
familiar with digital banking, providing education on how to
use [25] digital tools, keeping ATMs stocked and operational.
As customers seek help and advice on short-term cash
management and re-planning their future, banks would need to
prioritize live interactions through video collaboration tools.
Credit Management
Even with the Indian government’s stimulus packages and
Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI) liquidity measures, banks can
expect an increase in loan defaults as borrowers across
customer groups struggle to make payments in the face of an
economic crisis resulting from lost business and jobs. Besides
the moratorium facility announced by the RBI for all term
loans, as part of the COVID-19 package, lenders should
consider proactively restructuring loans to reduce the cash flow
burden in the near term, thus reducing defaults in the
immediate future. So, banks should prepare for losses and build
capacity to deal with an increase in delinquent loans. As
consumer demand picks up, albeit gradually, post lockdown,
banks will need to repurpose their go-to-market and customer
acquisition model, keeping in mind changing consumer
behavior post COVID-19, as well as focus on digitally native
journeys and re-look at underwriting norms for better risk
discovery.
Revenue Pressure
Revenue from retail and commercial banking is falling sharply,
as underlying consumption and transactions have seen an
exponential dip. While central banks around the world slash
interest rates, banks are reducing yields to generate business,
thus significantly reducing net interest margins. Income from
payments and other fee-based services are hit by a general
decline in economic activity. With measures like moratorium
periods provided on loans, banks’ cash flow has also taken a
hit. Banks can also focus on cash back and loyalty rewards to
encourage spending in sectors that need it the most.
Operating Model Consistence, Cost Elasticity and
Transmogrification
Over the next few quarters, the banking sector will face a
misalignment between short-term costs and revenues due to the
economic impact of COVID-19. Banks would need to review
and prioritize current projects to ensure allocation of resources
to the most pressing needs [26]. Banks should also focus on
investing in areas that will outlive the current pandemic,
including projects and initiatives that maintain or improve the
customer experience such as a paperless utility, end-to-end
digital advisory and lending capabilities, increased fraud and
cyber security analysis and detection, etc. These new digital
tools will make banks more efficient and resilient to future
changes. Banks that haven’t focused on remote working and
virtual collaboration in the past should explore establishing
elastic operations. This will insure banks against such
unprecedented lockdowns and perhaps better manage cost
overheads.
Inflection Comprehensive Challenges into Meaningful
Transformation
Today scenario businesses must navigate the financial and
operational challenges of COVID-19, while rapidly addressing
the needs of their people, [27] customers, and suppliers. In this
section offers expert insights from our leaders paired with
tangible actions that our organization can take to turn massive
complexity into meaningful transformation.
Connecting with Changing Customers Habit
The corona virus outbreak has forced companies to reevaluate
how contact centers are leveraged, how employees deliver
relevant customer experiences, where they work, and how
digital channels can be used to support business continuity
through the crisis and beyond. The global COVID-19 pandemic
has forever changed our experiences as customers, employees,
citizens, humans and our attitudes and behaviors are changing
as a result. The crisis is fundamentally changing how and what
consumers buy and is accelerating immense structural changes
in the consumer goods industry. These emerging new
behaviors, organizations have an opportunity to accelerate the
pivot to digital commerce, by expanding existing offerings and
creating new lines of service, like the retailers rallying to
provide “contactless” delivery and curb-side pick-up services
for consumers.
Pairing People with Eventuality Resilience
Currently, the organizations globally are experiencing
unprecedented workforce disruption. Virtually all companies
are still determining how we will work in the short and long-
term, as workforces and communities try to function and
perform, while struggling to cope with what is happening in
their daily lives. The chief human resources officer across
industries are rising to the challenge, helping people and
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Dr. Asif Perwej, The Impact of Pandemic Covid-19 on the Indian Banking System
organizations navigate massive workforce shifts, such as the
urgent need to [27] shift to a remote workforce to protect and
empower employees, serve customers and to establish business
continuity. The chief human resources officer expertise in
developing agile workforce strategies is critical to keeping the
global economy viable and helping people and their families
survive financially now and in the future.
Restructuring for Global Resilience
The COVID-19 crisis, fundamental changes in consumer
behavior, supply chains, and routes to market are knocking
companies off balance. Responding to the pandemic has
underscored the need for leaders to accelerate the adoption of
agile ways of working and value chain transformation to help
outmaneuver uncertainty. An intelligent enterprise means
shifting from [28] top-down decision-making, empowering
teams guided by purpose, driven by data, powered by
technology and enabled by cloud for faster speed to market.
The intelligent enterprise is capable of dynamic self-
management and continual adaptation. It is built for agility,
resiliency, and growth.
Building the Resources to Seize New Eventuality
In the face of the COVID-19 crisis, leaders have had to act
quickly to optimize their company’s resilience rebalancing for
risk and liquidity, while assessing opportunities for growth
coming out of the downturn. Current and future viability
depend on swift C-suite action, including near-term actions for
stability and strategic moves that will create new futures for
companies and industries. Immediate action is needed to
address short-term liquidity challenges, but also to solve for
costs and profitability and generate funding to invest in new
opportunities. Many CEOs are faced with plummeting sales
and revenue and increased costs. Actions taken now can have
an immediate impact on the survival of the company, how
quickly it rebounds from the global downturn, and its financial
health and sustainability going forward.
Construct Technology for the Robustness to Succeed
Now, COVID-19 is pushing companies to rapidly operate in
new ways and IT is being tested as never before. Once we
reach the other side of this pandemic, it will be important to
establish long-term strategies for greater resilience and to apply
lessons learned from the experience to create a systems and
talent roadmap that better prepares your company for future
disruptions.
Diversion Massive Challenges into Meaningful
Transformation
Every industry has been impacted by the COVID-19 crisis,
with varying degrees of severity. Some have stronger defenses,
while others will struggle to return to a constantly shifting
normal. The consumer demand patterns are shifting, global
supply chains are disrupted and remain under pressure, and
different regions, markets, and governments are responding
uniquely to the COVID-19 crisis. Industry must continuously
adapt to new and uncertain market conditions.
The Influence of Covid-19 on Financial Services Sector
The human and business impact of the COVID-19 pandemic
continues to unfold globally. The rapid pace at which the
pandemic is spreading and the global actions taken to curtail it
are having [29] an unprecedented impact on the way we live
and do business. In This section explores the impact of the
COVID-19 pandemic on the financial services sector.
Banking and Capital Markets
The re-regulation following the 2008 global financial crisis put
banks in good stead when entering the COVID-19 pandemic.
The similitude to banks, households, and companies entered the
crisis relatively highly leveraged and, therefore, more
susceptible to economic shocks. The practice of central banks
aggressively cutting interest rates even further from previous
historic lows has put additional pressure on banks' interest
margins. Furthermore, while central banks are focused on
funding businesses, they may later choose to stress test [30]
banking resolutions developed after the global financial crisis.
This may suggest that banks will only be able to replenish their
capital buffers through earnings and retained dividends, rather
than through rights issues. All these pressures may lead to
losses across the banking sector. The TP models that put a cost-
plus floor on the reward to sales branches may need to be
retested, either in terms of the plus or their appropriateness in a
COVID-19 environment where the bank is sustaining losses as
a whole. The plus will also be based on pre-COVID
benchmarking searches. Another area that may require analysis
is the impact of a liquidity crunch on banks' fund TP models,
and the potential impact for legal entities and branches within a
banking group.
Insurance Sector
The insurance industry is by its very nature generally well
prepared to deal with significant industry loss events, such as
the COVID-19 pandemic. Several insurers learned lessons from
the SARS outbreak of 2003 and introduced exclusion clauses
for communicable diseases and epidemics & pandemics into
most non-life products, such as business interruption (BI) and
[31] travel insurance. However, there is still uncertainty
associated with the full extent of claims for life and health
insurers and the timing of those claims, as the impact will vary
country by country. The industry is closely monitoring the
effect on mortality rates and life insurers are also expecting to
be severely affected by the financial markets. As business
interruption and contingency claims continue to unfold for
general insurers, which could potentially result in a reduced
capacity in the market. As a consequence, multinational
insurance groups are assessing how potential COVID-19 claims
may affect their solvency capital requirements from a
regulatory perspective, and whether they need to amend the
terms of their existing inter-company reinsurance programme
or increase the level of cover as the 2021 renewal season
approaches.
Asset Management Sector
The COVID-19 pandemic continues to create uncertainty, asset
managers in the traditional and alternative sectors are under
stress on several fronts. These challenges affect both regulated
and unregulated funds at both the fund and investment levels.
The sector has witnessed the combined impact of massive
outflows of assets, as investors focused on liquidity as well as
lower asset valuations eroding the stream of management fees.
The COVID-19 pandemic will also likely affect the quality of
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 International Journal of Recent Scientific Research Vol. 11, Issue, 10 (B), pp. 39873-39883, October, 2020
investment assets and trigger questions around the underlying
financing arrangements that are inherently linked to the quality
of the assets being financed.
Estimate the Impact
There are several consistent market and knock-on TP themes
across the financial services sector. Every financial services
institutions for instance banking and capital markets, insurance
and asset management, should monitor the effective
distribution of profits or losses by combining existing price
setting with outcome testing approaches to monitor the
effective distribution of profits/losses across the group's
different entities/branches and jurisdictions. TP documentation
should also be produced or updated contemporaneously, [32]
potentially including additional qualitative or quantitative
analyses to support loss situations, support payments. The
potential long-term impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the
TP dimension is still to be seen but TP models will need to
accommodate the new normal.
This Areas Likely to be Most Impacted by Covid-19
The COVID-19 has generated significant instability and high
volatility in global capital markets. We are exploring the areas
of the overall banking sector most likely to be impacted,
including valuation and profitability.
Profitability and Credit Management & Expense of Hazard
The low interest rate scenario, along with the significant impact
of the COVID-19, is reducing the core banking profitability in
mature markets. Financial institutions are thus shifting towards
commission-based income from the likes of payments and tech
businesses. The immediate effects of the health emergency on
the real global economy are the increased credit risk of
corporate and retail clients of the banks.
Securitization Landscape
The corrective actions of governments aim to mitigate the risk
profiles through further incentives for disposals. It is likely that
the future market of synthetic securitizations may require
revitalization after recent developments and important
economic impacts that could come as a result. The past few
years, several European banks have finalized important
disposal operations of impaired loans, contributing to a
significant reduction of the NPL ratio.
Customer Relationship and Mercantile Models
However COVID-19 may lead to a crisis in the real economy,
the impact on the banking system and on the bank customer
relationship [33] can also is defined as a 'positive discontinuity'
for the purpose of digitization of the sector and the ability to
offer an excellent customer experience. The clear
understanding by banking operators of their gap in the
provision of services, becoming more tangible than ever before
with COVID-19, could make them even more inclined to
accelerate the digital transformation path through partnerships
and collaborations within the fintech community.
Operational Resilience and Trading Continuity Management
The provision of technological innovation can play an
important role in guaranteeing the business continuity of the
banks, the activation, and enhancement of robotics solutions or
artificial intelligence and mobility, if applied to critical
processes, would allow for an easier protection in case of
absence of staff.
Exalted Volatility in Stock Markets Depressed Banks
Evaluation
The COVID-19 has generated significant instability and high
volatility in global capital markets [34]. The financial sector
has been one of the most affected, with bank valuations
dropping in all countries around the world. Banking stocks
were impacted during COVID-19. In the period from 01
December 2019 to until 2020 most banks saw a price slump in
mid-March. European banks were adversely impacted as the
Euro STOXX banks index saw a massive decline of 40.18
percent followed by STOXX North America 600 banks index
(31.23 percent) and STOXX Asia/Pacific 600 Banks Index
(26.09 percent) for the given period.
Covid-19 Pandemic How Banks Can Manage the Business
Impact
The most banks will now be in full business continuity mode,
they also need to consider the likely impact of COVID-19 on
the banking industry and its customers. They will be critical
players, and with the right actions could significantly moderate
the economic damage this crisis is expected to inflict. The
COVID-19 pandemic is a health and humanitarian [35] crisis,
as well as an economic shock. Banks have a pivotal role to
play. We believe the short-term impacts will affect four key
areas of retail and commercial banking: credit management,
revenue compression, customer service and advice provision,
and operating model adjustments and cost control.
Credit Management
The cash flow of many consumers and businesses will collapse
as lack of demand flows through into lower business revenues
and employee layoffs. These in turn will cause an increase in
both commercial and retail non-performing loans, as borrowers
struggle to make scheduled interest and principal payments.
There are, however, steps banks can take to mitigate this, to
help their customers survive, and potentially to emerge with
stronger customer relationships.
Revenue Compression
In the first few weeks of the pandemic the banking industry
market value fell to a lower level than during the 2008/09
crisis. This is because the market has factored in short-term
revenue compression from multiple sources including drop in
payments revenue and decline in trade finance and cross-border
payments.
Customer Service and Advice Provision
A short-term impact of this pandemic will be rapid changes in
customer servicing preferences. The many bank branches will
stay open as a vital service, customers are increasingly looking
to run their financial life through apps and online banking.
Operating Model Adjustments, Cost Control and Innovation
The cumulative impact of the three points above will lead to a
misalignment of short-term revenue and expenses in the
banking sector. We expect a range of impact from a 60 to 100
percent drop in PBT. The demands of the next four to six
months will be different from what was envisaged six weeks
ago, banks should respond with as much flexibility.
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Dr. Asif Perwej, The Impact of Pandemic Covid-19
19 on the Indian Banking System
The Future of Banking after COVID-19
The banks grapple with the many challenges posed by the
COVID-1919 crisis it becomes clear that, whatever the eventual
outcome, they will learn many valuable lessons about their
customers, their own capabilities, and the market as a whole.
These will serve them well in the years ahead. We hope our
deep dive into the implications of the crisis provides some
nuggets of insight. As your business partner, we stand ready to
provide whatever support you may need.
Will Indian Banking Sector Conquer the Impacts of Covid-19
The COVID-19 19 pandemic, indeed, is the third silent world war
since it has disrupted normal life and upturned the modern
world in no time. The COVID-19 19 unleashed its power on
humanity without shedding blood but killed people silently and
spread the fear of death. So, there is nothing wrong with
equating the present situation with a world war. The whole
world is still struggling to survive the pandemic. The impact of
the COVID-19 9 on commerce and industry will give rise to bad
debts, and this may severely affect their profit. It is also vital to
consider how the war-like like situation created by the [36]
COVID-19 19 has affected the Indian banking sector as a whole.
The first case of COVID-19 19 was reported from Wuhan, China,
in December 2019. China took it lightly but realized soon that
they were playing with fire. Other countries did not take the
disease seriously until it attacked them. The COVID-19 COVID
pandemic has affected developed and developingveloping countries
alike. The world came to a standstill, and the situation halted
the wheel of the economy. Many people lost their lives, many
are under treatment, and nobody is sure if we can conquer this
epidemic. It has affected all sectors of the world
worl and caused job
loss and income dropping.
Figure1 Indian Banking Transactions During Lockdown Variations in
Rs.Crore
The Indian banking sector, COVID-19 19 and subsequent lock-
lock
down affected it heavily. The Central government declared
lock-down of the entire nation on 24th March, and it abruptly
brought down all the commercial activities. There started a
slide down of lending activities in banks. Several changes took
place in the banking sector during this great lockdown. The
banking hours were shortenedd and operated with fifty percent
of employees. The banks had to ensure the social distancing of
customers [37]. The main income source of banks is interest
accrued on loans and advances. However, during the lockdown
period, loans showed a downward trend because b people
preferred to deposit whatever they could to secure their future.
In turn, the banks have become liable to pay them interest and
figure 1 shown depicts the trend.
There was no loan issuance to the needy sectors and no
repayment by creditors duringuring this term. To remove this
standstill, the apex bank of the country recently declared a
moratorium on repayment of term loans. Along with this
banking, the regulator has also provided relief for interest
deferment payment for working capital loans for few months
[38]. This pandemic has changed the banking system
considerably. World Health Organization has advised to make
digital payment and reduce the usage of banking notes as much
as possible. As per the report of the largest bank in our country
(SBI),, there was an increase in online banking up to22% to 38
%. It proves right the prediction of RBI that by 2021 the digital
transaction will be increased by four times in the country.
During this period, people came to the bank only for check
clearance and depositing money. There is an increasing trend in
online transactions, which is about 25% to 45 %. Thus the
pandemic compelled customers to indulge in the online
banking system.
At the present time, the banking sector is experiencing
drowsiness due to the COVID
COVID-19 crisis, but in the near future,
this disease itself may give banks more business. Although
COVID-19 19 [has caused a heavy impact on the Indian banking
sector, it may bring forth some positive outcomes in the long
run [39]. Many Indians are working abroad, and the COVID-19
pandemic may force some of them to return to their homeland
and start their life anew. Such persons are a skilled lot, and they
may think of starting their own business in India. Such persons
will apply for loans to start their en
enterprises. It may provide the
banks to double their business. The COVID
COVID-19 pandemic has
affected the transactions in the banking sector heavily.
Challenges in Banking
The financial institutions worldwide have been constantly
evolving their businesses due to regulatory and competitive
pressures, stressed interest rate regime and changing customer
expectations. Banks form the backbone of every economy and
play a critical role in the lives of citizens by providing them
with essential financial services. It is important for banks to
remain operational during such a crisis. The ongoing COVID-
19 pandemic [40] further poses a serious challenge for them.
This can create challenges such as decline in revenue
generation due to lower customer footfalls, lower demand,
reduced and remote working of staff and likely stress on net
interest income owing to skewed interest expense. In spite of
these challenges, there is a signific
significant opportunity for banks to
transform themselves in areas such as cost optimisation,
digitalisation and productivity, and become resilient, agile and
profitable. Customers have realised that banking does not stop
even if they can’t visit branches. Would tthis change customer
behaviour and how they interact with banks. How can banks
optimise their operating expenses as they redesign future retail
banking models? Which costs can banks continue to incur to
yield profitability and which costs put additional pre
pressure on
the bottom line. Can banks deploy some innovative
compensation models to boost productivity while optimising
manpower costs? Do banks have enough tools to monitor and
boost productivity, and ensure quality and compliance for
remote working conditionsons for employees and vendors? How
can banks accelerate an assisted digit sales model where both
the seller and the customer are more comfortable with digital
channels? Are some of the current operational processes of
39879 | P a g e
 International Journal of Recent Scientific Research Vol. 11, Issue, 10 (B), pp. 39873-39883, October
banks redundant in current times? Can they re-engineer
themselves to become suitable to the current times and the
future? The short term disruption has shown in figure 2 the 8-
10% revenue erosion for real estate companies and Temporary
halt in construction activities and at least 30% reduction in
revenues for the year [41]. The difficulty in accessing branches
for routine operations, default in loan payments, scaling down
of non-essential
essential operations and significant reduction in
domestic and cross-border trade. The large-scale
large layoffs and
pay cuts and high bankruptcy rate especially among SMEs and
airlines and widespread cancellations & amendments.
Figure 2 A Short Term Disruption Concerns
The key areas for banks to focus during covid-19
covid pandemic
Banks will need to look at short and mid-term tactical
initiatives during the crisis, along with focusing on long-term
long
strategic initiatives. Most Indians continue to use physical
channels for their banking needs. While banks are encouraging
their clients to use low-touch
touch mediums, they will have h to
manage their touch points while adhering to the guidelines on
social distancing. This will require deployment and adoption of
technology, and development and implementation of new
standard operating procedures (SOPs) for both customer-facing
customer
and internal
ernal branch operations. The revenues are under
pressure, banks need to optimise costs to ensure that their
bottom line is protected. The COVID-19 19 crisis can be seen as
an opportunity for a bold cost transformation [42]. It is
important for banks to differentiate
entiate between good costs and bad
costs. Good costs will enable smoother functioning and growth,
while bad costs can be terminated. Banks can identify
initiatives based on the implementation time required and focus
on quick wins while they keep working on long-term
initiatives.
The Indian banking sector embarked on the digital
transformation journey a few years ago. While the initial
objective may have been to counter the competition from tech-tech
savvy, new-age players, the COVID-19 19 crisis could be a game
changer,
anger, pushing banks to adopt digital technology shown in
figure 3. It is important not only to handle the COVID-19
COVID crisis
[43], but also prepare for post-crisis
crisis recovery. Since both urban
and rural India have high mobile penetration and access to data,
banks
nks can look to expand digitally. The present circumstances
have increased familiarity with technology use among both
sellers and customers. Banks can work with technology
providers or create their own digital solutions to enable digital
banking for their customers. Similar digital initiatives are
October, 2020
required to empower employees, vendors and other
stakeholders.
Figure3 The Digital Transformation for Customers and Employees
In the coming months, key cost ratios of banks are expected to
be stressed, which will compel banks to rethink their fixed cost
strategy. The banking sector continues to provide services to
customers while planning to [44] optimise its delivery models.
For the revenue-generating
generating workforce, productivity is under
stress owing to the socialal distancing norms. The non
non-revenue
generating banking workforce, the systemic challenges of
access and connectivity are proving to be restrictive. The
current crisis is different from previous crises due to various
factors such as large numbers of people working remotely and
challenges related to working space, privacy and technological
infrastructure.
Banks need to change their revenue viewpoint due to their
reduced ability to lend, low interest income and an increase in
stressed assets. They should als also be ready to adopt new
customer and employee behaviours which might force them to
change their business models and strategy. These changes may
not be immediately visible, but will eventually have an impact
on business [45]. Banks need to rethink their str strategy in order
to be more effective and customer friendly. Banking operations
in India are primarily cantered around bank branches due to the
large volumes of cash transactions. Branches are the face of a
bank and allow customers to [46] visit and talk to their staff,
especially in Tier-II
II and Tier
Tier-III cities in India. Banks should
look to educate and help their customers to slowly migrate to
digital channels without compromising on their convenience
and comfort.
The key areas for banks to focus during covid-19 pandemic
In this section we are explores COVID-19 implications. It also
raises questions around key areas that banking and capital
markets leaders should be asking themselves right now and
provides action steps for them to consider. We do not know the
long-term
term implications of COVID
COVID-19 for financial markets [47]
and banking and capital markets firms. But when normalcy
returns, banks, and capital markets firms will likely have
learned a few lessons shown in table 11. These may include how
to best retain operational resilience when confronted with
future pandemics, and possibly how to design new operating
models [48] such as alternate work arrangements. COVID
COVID-19
may further
her accelerate migration to digital channels and
connectivity.
39880 | P a g e
Dr. Asif Perwej, The Impact of Pandemic Covid-19
19 on the Indian Banking System
Table 1 The Particular Implications fo
or Banking
The Impact of Covid-19 in Capital Markets
The uncertainty from COVID-19 19 will remain for the
foreseeable future. Banks and capital markets institutions have
no choice but to remain hyper vigilant and rewrite their
business continuity playbooks as [49] circumstances change.
While it is reassuring to see some aggressive fiscal and
monetary policy responses around the world already, clarity on
how
ow these actions will stabilize markets and accelerate the path
to normalcy is slowly emerging, and in some cases yet to
emerge. However, banks and their customers can take some
comfort that capital ratios were the strongest going into this
crisis than at any time in the last decade.
Banks need to actively consider the immediate needs of their
people and simultaneously the multiple near, short, and
medium-term
term operational, financial, risk, and regulatory
compliance implications. They have an opportunity to support
market and economic activity and to facilitate a quick return to
stability. If banks and capital markets firms respond well to
these unprecedented challenges, they will not only [50] help
society, but also increase trust and the reputation of the banking
industry in the long run. Revisions to the operating model,
given the impact and lessons learned from this crisis, e.g.,
acceleration of digital transformation, organizational agility,
future of work, [51] and increased focus on cyber security.
Impact
act of continued reduction of interest rates, reduced
business activity, and large scale non-performing
performing loans if this
becomes a prolonged recession. Implications of possible
regulatory changes and enhanced and new requirements. The
banking administrator willll be judged by what they do along the
three dimensions to managing a crisis. Firstly the respond,
recover, and thrive, including and secondly provide ongoing
core operations, business continuity, and customer support
remotely. Thirdly ensure motivation an and productivity of
employees as they are working remotely as well as legal [52]
and regulatory commitments, governance obligations, and
controls are fulfilled. Eventually enhance ongoing management
of market risk, counterparty credit risk, and non
non-financial risks
and Maintain adequate infrastructure and security.
CONCLUSION
The worldwide spreads of COVID COVID-19, the bank operations
have been hampered. The COVID COVID-19 pandemic has severely
impacted every industry across the globe in recent months. As
industries attempt to recover, there is a need for new strategic
initiatives and higher preparation. Banks and the wider
financial services sector are facing multiple challenges from the
ongoing global impact of COVID COVID-19. The outbreak of the
COVID-19 19 pandemic is an uunprecedented shock to the Indian
economy. Banks must continue to leverage technology and
build flexibility in their infrastructure to navigate these
challenges. Banking services in India are classified under the
essential services list. Banking and financi
financial institutions were
under immense pressure to ensure business
business-as-usual amidst the
lockdown and health crisis. The operational and technical
challenges for both the customers and employees highlighted a
deficiency and the general lack of agility in our ban banking
systems when faced with an emergency situation. In this paper,
we aimed to demonstrate a close look to about the impact of
pandemic covid-19 on the Indian banking system and briefly
discussing Indian banks ready to assimilate covid
covid-19 as well as
influence of covid-19 19 on financial services sector. The
immediate learning from the current COVID COVID-19 situation will
add the much-needed
needed rigor towards digitizing and optimizing
the bank’s backend operations. Banking operations such as
cash deposits, withdrawals, clearing of cheques and other
traditional teller services had to be executed by maintaining a
safe distance of at-least
least a meter. Indian banks (both public and
private) which are already online with some core banking
functions will focus on a complete trantransition by digitization of
all their functions, processes, and systems. In the end, we are in
a nutshell discussing about the pandemic covid-19 effect in
banking system.
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How to cite this article:
Dr. Asif Perwej.2020, The Impact of Pandemic Covid-19 on the Indian Banking System. Int J Recent Sci Res.
11(10), pp. 39873-39883. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.24327/ijrsr.2020.1110.5578
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