THE FOLLOW UP FACTOR ANALYSIS PART x sy HOWARD G. SARTIN, Ph.D ‘in ussociation with PIRCO PARIMUTUEL INFORMATION AND RESEARCH COMPANY PUBLISHERS OLHENRY HOUSE ves Benning, California 92220FORWARD, We have said it before: Nothing we do at the Institute is carved in stone. Racings situations, if not racing itself, are subject to constant change. FLUX is here to stay. The sole purpose of our research and instruction has been to make our clients WINNERS. AT] theory, concept or personal whims about Thoroughbred Racing have, therefore, been discarded in favor of an output designed to select winners. This is why our texts have never been sent to the typesetter but always Xeroxed so or major changes can be made when circumstances dictate. The fundamental truths presented in our first manual are just as predictive of winners as ever, Only our goals have changed. in stead of seeking a 63% win proficiency we now strive for 802. Ne are not vain as to think that a 63% methodology will produce 80% winners. So, spurred on by our clients from coast to coast and in Canada (and with their help) our ongoing research has developed: FACTOR PNALYSIS. Factor Analysis does not supersede the content of the Easic Manual, it SUPPLEMENTS it. Without a thorough under- standing of the basic material, Factor Analysis becomes Tike a space ship without a lanching pad. But WITH that understanding the advan- ced techniques presented herein offer new horizons of unlimited po- tential. In the vast wasteland of 'Horseplayers' there are but a Precious few genuine HANDICAPPERS. I am proud to say that the Charter Nembers of PIRCO, whose names appear on the back cover, are among the handicapping elite. They achieved this status only partly from the Method. They themselves provided the essential ingredients of forti- tude, diligence and insight - and, above all ~ a determination to be a WINNER. If YOU will emulate their attitude, you can duplicate their WIN profi- ciency. cidentalTable of Contents De PG. FACTOR ANALYSTS = DEFINED esses ieseessceeeeeeeseeee & PACE LINE CHOTCE - AN OVERVIEW . EACTOR ANALYSIS = PART ONE THE DAILY VARIANT. ‘THE TRACK TO TRACK VARTANT, DISTANCE CHANGES. SPRINT TO ROUTE-ROUTE TO SPRINT CHANGES WITHIN THE SPRINT or ROUTE STRUCTURE.. ENERGY ZXPENDITURE. +. essececeeesossssescs eeeererens br WIN PAR ENERGY. . ‘TOPAL, EARLY. « LATE... TURF RACES. ‘ren RACES RF_TO DIRT/DIRT TO TURF... MAKING & TRACK PROFILE, WINNER PROFILE. SUMMARY. « "GREAT EXPECTATIONS" eNTEN OF THINGS TO co FADING THE RESULTS CHARTS.....While preparing this manuscript I received a letter | long-time client telling me that he could no longer place his customary sized wagers on horses listed at higher than 2 to 1 at the legal Race Books in Las Vegas. from a So, after over 20 years of residency in Nevada, le woved to California to contimue nis winning waye at the traces, where management cares not who wins or how wuch. He is in his seventies and he is a winner. It can and DOES happen. We have a client who formerly operatei the Race Book at a major Las Vegas Hotel. He saya it can happen. We have another client closely associated with regulatory procedures in Nevada. He says it happens all the time. [t has happened to me.It happened to Darell Martin, our original Research Director, ani to YOU. it can happen "ve had many clients call ne saying, with glee. "Doc, giess what? I was just cut off by ny bookie!" It comes as no surprise. Illegal bookies are the first to desert a winner. In Damon Runyon's tine there uay have been honor anong this breed, but no more. oe ny) cliente whe wake a full tite 1iving’ Troe eevee! rapply Strict money iianagenent procedures: So, before we we examine the way to win more RACES, let's scrutinize the profits available at your PRESEN? Level of proficiency. Play with e SHALL working bank, $300 ts enough. It will grow surprisingly fast if you iadhere to wagering 108° o7! ‘our bankroll with a fixed 10% minimamys Your firet bet is 350. 60%goes ‘on the LOW ODDS horse, (S18)./408 on the HIGH ODDS horsd. (312). GARR yore mt {BERLE LP Bumaoee SAMPLE READ OUT $ 309.00 Bankroll AFTER 21 ROUNDS AND A STARTING BANKROLL OF 305 Aaa AaaaA AERA RANA TERRES STRAIGHT unit ist 16% SQ RT WINS --55. NET#32 NET=536 NET=317 NET=294 NET=325 0 wwe APTER 21 ROUNDS AND A. STARTING BANKROLL OF 390 Sia neas sneer e eae e Ree STRAIGHT ONIT ws 6 & SQ RT WINS NET=435 % NET=519 & NET=19143 NET=1891% NET=564 % = Dutching 60-49 RANDOM SEARCH 195 178 195 98 198 145 173 338 639 188 AFTER 21 ROUNDS AND A STARTING BANKROLL OF 360 STRAIGHT NET=435 8 = 145 onrT NET=516 % = 172 19% NET=1009% = 336 16 NET=1877% = 625 SQ RT NET=562 % = 187 WINS --65, APTER 21 ROUNDS AND A STARTING BANKROLL OF 300 STRAIGHT NET=563 % = 187 UNIT NET=63 % = 209 igs NET=2848% = 949 16 NET=#8G75% =2691 SQ RT NET=892 & = 297 WIN’ --29I first realized that winning only 63% of the races played, betting two horses, could be greatly improved upon when ny own proficiency began to rise as a result of working’ problew races sent in by YOU, the client, from tracks all over the United States and Canada, By helping you with your problems, my proficiency rose to 80% through long enough periods to satisfy me that no fluke was involved. This belief was further supported by the fact that mutuel prices did not diminish with the higher win proficiency, but, rather, INCREASED. I attributed the pleasant result to FACTOR ANALYSIS. Subsequently, more and more clients,irrespective of geograrhy, began reporting consistent results in the 70+ ® range. They too were applying FACTOR ANALYSIS. Aft thoroughly digesting the material in the main body of the Manual, they began concentrating on the supplenental content, pages 107 through 112. They were doing an analysis of what factors in their read-outs, or handicapping flow sheets were WINN lueir track. In reality thio to nothing ucre than using the stetistical procedure known as linear regression. They, and I, were applying regression on » daily basis to know whet wes happening NOW that ceused horses to win. Professional mathematicians and students of the Scientific Method will tell you that such short tern regrecsion is at not valid; that true regression ivolves at least 450 instances surveyed under a unifora criteria. This is true in the study of socio-economic trends or in the testing of metal stress, but apparently not so in the handicapping of ‘Thoroughbreda. (What Happened YESTERDAY d¢/more inbortant/ than the ‘sua total of what happened et last years weet, state, chis not to challenge the established leve of , statistics. I say this because in our own special field, It WORKS!Factor Analysis-Defined: In our velocity analysis we measured the incremental and final times of contenders AGAINS? each other. In Factor Analysis we expand our measurement to include the track; so now we are rating the contenders not only against each other, but against each individual tracks win requirenents. Fector Analysis lets us explore precise daily and track to track variants. It shows us how to measure Turf Races against those on the dirt and how to handle dirt horses going to the turf with no turf record along with Turf Horses waking their first dirt appearance. With factor analysis we no longer have to rely on old, often outdated distance adjustment or track equalization figures, nor are we saddled with last year’s par times. By @ simple evaluation of CURRENT resulta charts we will be the beneficiaries of the most important statistic in RACINGS CURRENT INFORMATION We need only file each day's current inforuation and soon we have a reservoir of past information with which to compare each days new entries. HOW LONG DOES IT TAKE? This is the first question everyone asks me. My aucwer is that I, personally,do it each worniag from the results charts published in either Los angeles newspaper, over the course of drinking three cups of coffee. There are nine races carded each day at Southern California tracks. T profile all of them except the maidens. That's seven races per day at tvo and one half minutes each. That's less than 18 mimtes per day. Compare that with the time it takes to make daily variants in the manner presoribed by the conventional methods. TRIP HANDICAPPING The current "go purase" ia racing, especially on the sast Coast,is TRIP HANDICAPPING, This does not 4 Ss.nendicapping while under the influence of narcotics, though many of the horses taking the ‘trip’ will be on Bute or Lasix. Trip Handicapping fells into two catego: The first and clessic definition is to view the race frou gate to wire through bincculars and take notes on » ies. deviations from normal. If @ horse goes wide or is blocked or changes stride or gets an open lane on rail and keeps it, etc. etc. In short, observing everything that happens to any one, or all, of the horses during the running of the race. Then going to the Public TV sets at the track and reviewing the stretch run and recall, all the while taking notes. I've overheard some interesting arguusnts be" Handicappers who couldn't agree on what hapyened. It was like listening to the testinony of three witnesses to an accident. No recall exactly matched the other and often the descriptions were so far apart that one wondered if they were all talking about the seme accident. Some trip handicarpers own Home Video Recorders and tape the repley of the dayo racca that are broadcast in sose of the larger markets. Their machinery gives then +! stop-motioh a rece at any point so that can any incident that mayhave caused a given horse a bad trip. Notes teken from such reviews and observations are then een Trip e abi ity to filed and applied to the handicapping process when one of the animals in the race runs again. ALL in all it's quite a trip. The second, more relaxed definition of Trip Handicay is what we have been doing all along: analyzing the gress of contenders through the course of their races ‘y reading the past performance and results charts in the orm and using Zeet per second velocity to deteruine the smoothness, dullness or uneveness of the horses trip. Wie know, for instance, thet if @ speed horse on the rail runs yy @ second 7 slow raction followed an untypical: fraction thet vas faster than the first, that she horse ‘ainly impeded at the gate or in the Sirst few yards of the race. was almost o 6.By profiling a horae’s past recordWa the Pace-Foru-Class procedure deseribed in the Basic tlamal, we can tell to proble encountered during the race or because the animal was whether a poor performance was attributed! tested by pace factor against which it never does well - or simply on the downside of its fora cycle. Our research has provided many weapons. In order to make optimal use of the tools at hand, however, it is essential that wo know how to read and evaluate pace Se Proper pace line selection for rating contenders is tentanount to winning with the method. A capacity to understand the meaning of relationships between several different pace lines is of alnost equal importance. Go offer further insights and instruction into this all-important areawe have provided you with audio-tape cassettes featuring about a dozen who will take you through the pr line selection and in eliminating non-contenders. nree hours 00 wenbers ses THEY use in pace 0 quality for charter-nembershiy in PIRCO a & ndicapper Levent must be using the "ethodology to garner a con average in excess of 70%, and a mental set ti of falacious uythe that see to plague nost horseplayers. Listen now to the tapes and then we'll do a short written reviews In listening to the tapes the ONE thing that stood out was that each of these WINNERS evaluates a contenders LAST race and will not go: beyond At to find “a pace line unless a valid) reason is appareny. They look at ‘an animal's BETTER races to; learn what'4t°CAN do, but etthe latest race.tp sed what it/ DID dd, There is a keen relationship between what a T-bred has achieved in the past and recent effort. To view this relationship simply do this:fee eet 3 Fr. and Call Totel/4 Last GOOD Race eeeaaeaees Let us say that the pace of the last race at a Milew1/1ét! was 46 - 72:2 = 1:43.4 and that our horse was beaten vy, 33/4 3 BABIC TOT’4 » 4.84 RACE 97.3% 50.00 52.55 54.70 HORSE 55,52 50.09 51.23 54.18 S4.19 PACE RATING 93.34 DIFFERENCE .65 COMPOSITE RATING: $255. 1512 And in its last GOOD race at a Mile and 1/8th, the pace was 47,73,110. Beaten lengths were, 1, 3/4.and a A 9 FuRLones Last Goo RACE it z 3 BASIC TOTS RACE 56.17 50.77 53.51 54.25 34.55 HORSE £5.56 50,67 53.69 Sd.id Sd.02 FACE RATING 99.92 DIFFERENCE «07 COMPOSITE RATING: 5445.6416 FRCE COMPARISON GREFH RACE 1 2ud.caue omy cam ATT memes LAST Good 8.Now what we are seeing is NOT a horse beaten by 6 lengths last out, but a contender who ran a FASTER first fraction and a FASTER 2nd Cali than it did in the race where it was beaten by only a Neck. This horse is COMING IN to form. To determine whether it can win today, take a look at the Pace of the Race pace of the Horse read-out of the race immediately prior to ‘the good race. Did it look like this?: A 8.5 FURLONGS RACE BEFORE GOUD RACE HORSE 2 RACE 2 wm rors RACE 87.14 138 52.88 54.70 HORSE 56.93 90.15 52.96 54.49 PACE RATING 99.73 0 ENCE .i6 COMPOSITE RATING: 5460.5 8 If it did, LOOK FURTHER. What are the closing fraction £/p/s times of Teday's top contenders? Are they significantly faster than 52.967 What about the 2nd Call? Will this animal be run- against a 2nd call velocity exceeding 54.492 IF the answer is NO to Either ONE of these questions, it is a contender. Because of its early speed last out I rated the horse off. dts last GOOD races It won with the following lin Fi 8.5 FURLONGST HE Womane Effort HORSE 3 RACE 21 3 BASIC TOT’ RACE 56.36 HORSE 36.54 PACE RATING aWe analyzed not just one, but THREE, factors when selecting this horse's pace line. 1: We determined the horse's cond- ition by noting early speed last and compared thie race with the one immediately preceding its last GOOD race. 2: We looked at the Early and Late fractional velocities of today's competition, The ones. that were better early died after the second call. The ones with good closing fraction velocities had no matching 2nd call velocity, SO, 3: We rated the horse off its last GOOD effort. The horse rewarded us with an $18.00 mutuel. ‘The moral ds “always wake @ close inspection of a horse's LAST, paces) It will tell you something, even only that the. animal is hopelessly out of form against today's contentions Tt might reveal a HIDDEN fraction, however, which will allow you to go back farther to selct your pace line. It's all on the audio tapes, but it bears repeating: DO A QUICK GLASS study of virtually every horse. You don't have to put it through the computer; do it in your head or on a scratch pad or by hand calculator; Check Average Purse Valuesd They mean little by themselves in predic! 50% 9: Qu must analyze further before throwing out. If there is any question in your mind about how to figure an A.P.V.,See page 29 of the Yellow Manual. Let me repeat in writing something I said on the tapes. You no longer have to follow the Manual's injunctions with regard to daily variant. You can win 63% the old way but not much over. More and more throughout the country, track management is arti~ ficially altering track surfaces from day to day by alternate use of heavy watering and hard scraping. Such manipulation is prevalent at track$with carry-over, progressive exotics such as the Pick-Six. Most of the Eastern tracks are free from this prob= lem. The vagaries of weather in the Zast and Mid-West are the cause of fluctuating variants, so the effect is the same. You are no longer satisfied with 63%, so let's Move on to the subject of DAILY VARIANT: lo»* DAILY VARIANT The conventional procedure for making daily track variants as devised by Speed Handicappers involves prodigious records and precise compilations that frequently reyuire making two or more variants for the same day when the track surface is altered by a weather change. Tae need for such precision is because when using only FINAL TIME as & predictor the margin for error is almost nil. In our use of incremental times which ve then COMPOUND before getting our rating figures we have a 45% margin of error tolerance. This is no figure drawn from a hat but is based cn a multiple thousand sample computer study. This margin of error factor is not new. In 1956 Hugh Nathesou authorslecturer and analyst for the Daily Racing Form said that it was not necessary for the handicapper using fractional times and rate of speed(Peet per second) to be concerned with the track variant because using incremental speed vipes out much of the differential caused by the varian;. In the 1970's HUBY NAHL in his very BiG little ook, "The Race is Pace," stated that while the variant was the most vexing of problems to the speed hand it was far LESS SIGNIFICANT to the pace handicapper looking at the race in fractional segments. Huey was the first to change his mind on this subject, however. Not too long ago he asserted that mine would ve the perfect method IF I would come to gripa with the problem of Daily Variant. We will do that, Huey, right now: apper As with any other compilation, the time factor is im portant to those of you who cannot spend a lot of time handicapping races. So, in answer to the ubiquitous question: "How long does it take?" I compiled the ave. daily variant for 6 furlongs, a mile and 1 1/16th and a mile and 1/8th for Aqueduct, Inner Dirt, in twenty- three minutes. Here are the read-outs: ]MAKING A DAY VARIANT TRACK# OR ORF ORILY VAR. 21 peurrrectsretertacircirerrces rs] 2nd CALL, 55.81 BRD FRACTION 52.17 SRKER ASTER AIA SEE EAREO CREE EEE EEL PACE RATING 53.994 SECRET REC CRN ERERE EE EEA TRUE SPEED 54,95 VARIANT RATING 4272 2ND CALL 3RD FRACTION FAgvGs) GF. TRACKH GR DRF DAILY VAR. 17 ANTE REE ERAA EE REET TERE ILIATER 2ND CALL 56.9 RD FRACTION 50.36 SAKLEEE DCR LEAEE ALES DREHER EAE, PACE RATING 53.64 SACRE PERRIER OEE EE REE ARE TRUE SPEED $4.55 VARTAHT RATING Bais TRACK# OR DRF DAILY VAR. 10 ARAEAAAT LE EATE EDA RIALS REE ERTS 57.64 52.8 RERESEAE LEAL TENSE RE REES ELSE EET i PACE RATING 55.22 RESALES SESE ETERS CESAR EEEE TRUE SPEED 55.93 VARIANT RATING E5535 TRACK# OR DRF DAILY VAR. 25 STARTER EA AN AREA EE EE 2ND CALL 35.7 TRACKH OR ORF DAILY YAR. 31 SERRE REL EL SAEAREEE RARE EERE ETE \ SRO FRACTION 51256 2ND CALL 53.7 EXAEEEHAOETAEARTERTAREEERETAEES «GRO FRACTION 43,62 | PACE RATING 53.63 HEKEKAL AERA SEATS KALE RELL SAR EES | EEREESEROUETESEAESEEEREEEAER «= PACE RATING $2.66 i TRUE SPEED $4.25 poservuarrecrrctrcescettetc et a3 | VARIANT RATING 33 TRUE SPEED 53.51 | ace VaRTANT, RRTING 283, | i 2-25 t +08 OIE Pew Toor of DEF VARAnT ale 36 oa Cee Apu inner Diet 6F lo~ 17 aesant Point +a DEE: Five. Diff Far PRE vacsaw’ 2.106 to AL Dee 2 TE Tn Dye 10-25 109 DEF ag3l way DEE 2,Marne & Dany Yarn AQU (07 8.5 for. Aye Dany var, 22 TRACKS OR DRF DAILY VAR. 22 IEC GR On EE ASOD ERE OTE EE 2Nb CALL. BRD FRACTION $2.8 53.23 Hobo pee creorpir a ore oe PACE RATING ATRUE SPEED Pheer _SWARIBNT RATING Pe ’ TRACKS GR DRF DAILY VAR, 10 ZEEE SRO OC OCC kat 2ND CALL BE.15 RD FRACTION 51.24 FEROS ODO OnE c oan DOC ERE, PACE RATING 53,138 IECPURE DEORE SCD EAA EERE TRUE SPEED VARIANT RATING TRACKY OR DEF DATLY 83. 8134 dus cots 20 S pop ies GEESE COED O DEEDS OEE EER 82.5. 52.5 see ave TRACK# OF DRF OATLY VAR. 25 peeeetetesrerrttcteerirtiiretcag 2ND CALL, 54.55 BRO FRACTION perretstireiirteserereserteaeetsy PACE RATING S1.826 ISS croc a Done eee naa ese TRUE SPEED a2 VARIANT RATING 2 VaR. 22 Ipobn bh cie pepiar beeertnent pent 2ND CALL SRD FRACTION 53.37, 50.6 peeetreetrtatsteatieeet tect iete es PRCE RATING 51.984 TSS OO UOUO CORD GSOnonG oa ook TRUE SPEED VARIANT RATING 22@vEP« G26) oe ae ‘DIFF per Ag pt. 2.09 ort gg for vow pre 08 10-25 vt Digg Por VAR e 13, 3 see Ave Diff. Fer Vea pt Agu B 8.S{u © of?MAKING a DALY VARIANT AQv Cr) J furcongs TRACK# OR ORE DAILY vAR. Bf GAYE) REEEREE ESS PER EAR SEY EOE 2ND CALL. S404 SRD FRACTION 43.75 ARASH EEE NEARY RES RELEASE EE PACE RATING 51.524 SAE KS LEE EERE EEE EEE CREEL TRUE SPEED 52.57 VARIANT RATING TRACKS OR ORF DAILY YAR. JP HRESESS 23 4E8 EREAKS SARE ARSTTS ETE 2ND CALL 33.35 BRD FRACTION 58.51 RECS SA EAR EEE REE ENE AAARAAE EET PACE RATING 52,2318001 NSEARAREHEEERAARETSEEEECEERTTATE TRUE SPEED 52.75 YARTANT RATING 52.43 52.25 TRACKH OF ORF DAILY YAR.9O. vi sicher sees 2ND CALL 82.66 SRD FRACTION 45.78 IECEOeE EEE ee a PACE RATING 1.204 SOE OTA EEA AL TRUE SPEED S165 VARIANT RATING 51.43 TRACK# OR ORF DAILY VAR. 18 RIES EERE NERA EE ERE AEE 2ND CALL BRD FRACTION 54.85 30.77 EEO ere EE EAT EEE PACE RATING 52.388 ARXRAEA KS ES EEE EERE ES EEE TRUE SPEED 53.42 VARIANT RATING 53.44 1.) To 17 see Pure +06 Agu @ Ife ee Five. per gout of PRE Diy vA a ces fl at 7 ae sen | 7108 fo Ts 20 Av. per.gr t: -078 em Avegorere +088 0084 ooUSING THE RACING FOR! DAILY VARTANT What's RIGHT with the Racing Form's Daily Variant? Well. Everyone knows what is WRONG with the Daily Racing Form's Daily Variant that is now found next to the speed rating in all editions. Like the speed ratings the DV is based on track records. For every fifth of a second slower than the record for a given distance a point of variant is added. No class or sex distinction is made. Thus a day with most~ ly Fillies and Mares or a mixed bag of Maiden Claimers and Fillies with low-end claimers can produce a very High Variant figure even if the track is lightning fast. Conversely, a weekend or Holiday with a card featuring a Stakes Race and a couple of Ml of 3 Allowance races and NO Maiden Claiming races cotld show an inordinately LOW variant even though the track was off, The Forms DV is the average of all the times run on a given day. Consequently, in order to utilize this tool we must look upon it as a PAR, as opposed to a fact. ‘Think of PAR as you would on a golf course, While 69% of the players nay be shooting birdies on a par five hole, par is still five. Un a Par four hole the same 69% might have to settle for bogies; but par remains four, The same may be said for Dr. William Quirin's Par Times as published by Wood- side and iim. Morrow. While winning times may have changed at certain tracks since Quirin went to press, his Par Times adjusted according to his instruction, are viable tools for those handicapping within the frame of reference of HIS methodology. It is hard for me to imagine any serious handi~ capper not owning copies of Dr Quirin's WINNING AT THE RACES, and his latest, THOROUGHBRED HANDICAPPING-STATE OF THE ART." (Wm.Morrow) Dr. Quirin's AVERAGE PAR VARIANT at all tracks that we have profiled is the same as ours. Consequently when we have deen unable to actually profile a track ourselves we have used his average par variant, When using the material of others we only lift from the best. So, use che Average Par Variant in the manual, or make your wsown from the examples herein. You will note that if, let us say, Average Par Variant is 16, as it is at Santa Anita, that there will be little if any deviation at 14, 15, 17 or even 18. Beyond these clusters to the mean, however, important differences will emerge. The next step is to determine the average difference per point of variant, Overall we have had excellent results using .08 x point of daily variant differezce, You will have even better “results using the actual difference. Enter it as PLUS if the daily variant is GREATER than par; as a MINUS if LESS than par. Don't MIX the pace figures of Fillies and Mares with those of Colts and Geldings; and ABOVE ALL don't MIX class levels. Take your numbers from both sexes from the SAME class of race. You'll find that the subsequent PAR DIFFERENTIAL will then apply to al classifications. It is the DIFFERENTIAL we are after, not the raw energy expenditure. EXAMPLE: If we were handicapping this race at Bay Meadows and chad determined the the Variant Differential was .08 per point of Racing Form Daily Variant, the figures in the margin would be our adjustments to the Track Variant. The average daily var~ dant at Bay Meadows is: 17. ata e We Sada 401 "hom a hace tee nent a Saal ae eer a 92972 ) ioe er tama Tet on gxhinioe nematene 114195 + 152 RASA Sour aie Z tm Rate tec tow Pre tages pT =F 6) Bison td ss i Sons ita BM PS EM Cee we BF deen AHR I9S + hg oat PSS Ae teins si yh cmmtw Sede Gmhe mnie sly 29° 2 7 37 oe.NG aye —SANTAANITA The formula for making a daily variant is, Using Feet'per secondy (2nd ‘cays Sra Praca" + true speadf Variant Ratingy AlwayS USE THE “PACE of the RACE figures, NOT the Pace “of the! Winning Horsé, Winner times are less reliable because today's $20,000 Claimer may have been an allowance horse or a $10,000 claimer last month. The Pace of the race is shared by as many as three horses and thus more indicitive of True Class level, which, in making a daily variant,is what we're most concerned with. The sampling from the Racing Form Example on the next page ts of $20,000 claimers. Sprints are distance-adjusted to 6 furlongs, Routes to a mile and 1/16th. The number of horses in the sampling would be adequate EXCEPT for mixed bag of week~ days, week-ends and Holidays. This is why you will ogtengind, an 18 variant on a Sunday faster than a 17 on a Wednesday. To get a proper variant level you must average weekdays and weekends and Holideys separately. Use CLA{MING races to make your par-variant differential. Take the claiming level that is MOST COMMONLY run at all distances at YOUR TRACK(S). This way you'll have more races from which to draw your averages. In every sampling you will find at least ONE race that is considerably HIGHE? is velocity than the average for that variant figure. You will also find one or two that are markedly LOWER, Discard these and average the median numbers. This procedure has proved most reliable in determining an accurate variant differential, Do not, MIX males with females. DO SEPARATELY! It is especially inportant that you monitor your variants at least once a month. NEVER use the variant figure for one track to measure another. Subtle per point of variant differences occur, as you can see from the .09 Santa Anita Sprint level and the AQUEDUCT (ID) .106,' When rating a ‘hose fromone track against’ another apply thé vatiant’ of the ‘track that the horse is/ COMING FROM.Varun ~ (C/K fp w/a Santa Amita SPRINTS fve len fie. per poimr of Varvant, ET] DRF DRILY VARIANT 14 SScco orc obo a bocporn or 2ND CALL 83.7 BRD FRACTION 51,86 9709 7 cboebeperreepeneet = PRCE RATING $6,645 & TRUE SPEEDCFINAL TIME? SE. eeeerrireetareetececsareetsroc ns VARIANT RATING 95.97 JASCO Ceo Eee DER, DRF DAILY VARIANT 16 TEER OEE ODL OEE 2ND CALL 58.41 BRD FRACTION $2.92 SEEERREERE LETTERS t PACE RATING 95,395 TRUE SPEEDCFINAL TIME? 56.25 Teeboa bao ornreoe gona ber YARTANT RATING 55.82 HORSE ERR EERE EE ORF DAILY VARIANT 17 ISSCC Co oocEneep ieee pee 2ND CALL $9.73 RD FRACTION 43.62 pene bac tex PRCE RATING 54.678 TRUE SPEEDCFINAL TIME) 59.99 pests ceescecertcertetcccescss? VARIANT RATING 55.3 Sob oorcen coprneeecereregr sere, ) THEW bite. BY R | a | | DEF DAILY VARIANT 21 pececessbosuatecaeceecerss 2ND CALL $8.15 SRD FRACTION $9.77 SSoHenpereeatoore PACE RATING $4.46 TRUE SPEEDCFINAL TIME? SE.a7 pocececeseeteciecacssresretters! i YRRIANT RATING 34.77, pecrctecotecatitccessscererrcacs— SANTA Anita - Rovote Gver imue) _—_ DRE DAILY VARIANT 12 EE EERE EDO EEE EECLESROERARK 2ND CALL 55.46 SRD FRACTION $2.3 povevereserereresrs PACE RATING 52.98 TRUE GPEEDCFINAL TIMED 82.94 poreare recedes irecrieeererieetr) VARIANT RATING 53.36 Ener nenrni tines renner tier ORF DAILY vaRIANT 17 CAVEJ JeEcbbk Locos cock oben ok 2ND CALL 55.62 BRO FRACTION 58.93 JERE AGREE EERE PRCE RATING 53.275 TRUE SPEEDCFINAL TIMED 54.15 IEE CORCORDOECOCER CEE EEE BeCR OEE VARIANT RATING 53,71 SEEDCEEECCo EEOC EE OPER 00 DRF DAILY VARIANT 23 SSeCe DoS oe ene et 2ND CALL $5.15 @RD FRACTION $0.51 eeetrestettisase ted PACE RATING 52.83 TRUE SPEEDCFINAL TIME) 53.51 Pesseeatettrttitctcistceatsrrccy VARIANT RATING 53.17, SSSR RESCUE CODE OE EEE EERE Pre. Diff. Per VaRiant Pow 5453-57 /55 = 2065 2 me 3.53)ib ATLY TRACK Vy i NET See SPRINTS Sa0a Aura Gf buiammrer - me teste GE 116 seme gum aerate ae ng BE? ees aRte GRE RR Say ce tek erntrmmrn dat 20,000 chan Biniee eae omar A ae 118 Toereree esto a ees me Saudi Hae E iim aio opm ef Louie ia HE 1c Halter BE ESEr ae PEee ee eet as Se YT See TE REE bes VEE SES Ries seers a aa cueeitk Se Seas ne an yi ee A GY ES SSE Wag RU EET ean pee TTR ieee ewan ain PE oe a gs BE sa apg ak ecm ee pti rt ESOT ETT way nmap tom no x [pens aceimuge ase Hie od Ree Benes Ler Sees; ‘a0 esi seem Vomna X-22 WEP bea tik aR AP phy Deane it oa X— 1B Heer nig fie jus LESjjewn ve oe sem vamES xAverage e gh lines at Various Daily variants at the S, class level to get a real ricture, Throw out the Low and The High. Average the median. Make different averages for males and fezales and for weekdays and weekends-Holidays foU_TD S.A, 1 54.88 1 55.74 mM 55.74 2 58.40 NO 54.23 2 58.91 4 54.60 Ne 56.02 5 S444 NS 54,28 ayS 54,7 AG 55.48 HIGH Track: S.A. TRACK/TRACK VARIANT: «78 NEWS [JG New ave New Wve $4.50 $5.68 Keep a calendar for this year and lastin order to identify the day of the week; and NOTE all EOLIDAYS. Some tracks heavily watered before the first racing day of each week, If this is so at YOUR track, take it into consideration. That day will always have a HIGHER daily variant. 24.Utilizing these variant figures paid big dividends to seven charter members of Pirco last December while playing a rain~ soaked Bay Meadows Off-Track in Las Vegas. Two successive Quinellas. yielded $120 and $200 (the limit) per $6 ticket. The winner in one race and the place horse in the next were overlooked by the public because they showed speed ratings of 5k and 56 respectively. What the crowd failed to notice was that these speed rating were earned on tracks with a 46 daily variant. Both horses had actually run well against a slow, sloppy pace. Here the pase lines of the two horses in relationship to the pace they ran against. These were the pace lines WE used to handicap and bet the two horses: @)i2see con, Bay meADOS Pt 2.96 5 12509 CLM. BRY neADONs DV Sut i | ie LACE Rs | HORSE 1 won #54 HORSE 2 eer ae | RACE 1 1 2 3 BASIC TOT/4 RACE i ie ie 3 BASIC TOT4+ . | RACE 93.98 50.36 47.41 52.66 5: 53.83 50.77 HORSE 53.47 56.43 47.89 52.43 51 53.67 50.67 i PACE RATING 9: BC DIFFERENCE(11) PACE Here was the pace line from the last race of the favorite running against an 11 Daily Variant. $9.68 DIFFERENCE(< is) FavowsTe: 42509 CLM. BAY NEALONS HORSE 3 RACE 1 2 RACE HORSE 5 PACE RATING 99.37 DIFFERENCE Far superior efforts on the part of A and B, But the public did not notice. Moral: Apply the Daily Variant and Use your Pace of the Horse-Pace of the Race formula. It will pay big dividends, = PACE CONPARTSONx TRACK TO TRACK VARIANT The sole purpose of track-to-track variants is to equelize- mathematically - the surface of the tracks involved. Consider two human runnersione runs on the hard pavement of a city street, the other over the plowed fields of a farm, We will presume that if they ran against each other on EITHER surface, they would finish in a dead heat. However, they live two hundred miles apart and have never met. An entrepreneur decides to match these two mythical runners, offer a prize to the winner and allow his friends to wager on the match. The prospective vettors in the city clock C (the city runner) at 9 seconds flat for 100 yards on the pavement. He looks like a good bet. The farmers backing F (The farm boy) clock him at 12 seconds for the 100 yards. By their standards, that's fast. The site of the race is chosen: a regulation High School cinder track in a community half way between the city and the farm When the race ends in a dead heat the backers of both runners are shocked to learn that the time for the race was 10.5 seconds. C ran the hundred. one and a half seconds slower than normal and F ran it one and a half seconds faster. THAT is why we must employ track EQUALIZATION FIGURES: to compensate for the soft loam of the farm or the firm concrete of the city. 0. Most published track to track equalization figures are based on the average FINAL TIMES of winners by track, and are gauged on the basis of a fifth of a second per beaten length. IZ the average six furlong time at BOWIE, for instance was 1:12 and the Average time for the same distance at Santa Anita, 1:10, the BOWIE horse would be given an equalization figure of 10 (10 fifths) when shipping to Santa Anita. Unlike our two human runners, The BOWIE horse does not finish in a dead heat with the Santa Anita horse BECAUSE the equalization figures we based (a) on final time alone, and (b) no adjustment was made for the relative CLASS of the two tracks, Santa Anita is a CLASS I track, BOWIE a CLASS IV track. There is a 20% penalty perlevel of Track CLASS that must be assessed against the BOWIE horse. BOWIE is 5 levels lower than Santa Anita so that's 60% or 6 fifths. Now the BOWIE horse only get an adjustment of four, so we are no longer surprised when at Santa Anita it runs the six furlongs in 1:11:1. Surface adjustments alone, are hypothetical. Surface adjustments combined with track CLASS adjustments are effective tools. Because we base our ratings on INCREMENTAL times we do not make a itack totracs variant! based on Final Time ALONE. The formula iis identical with the one used: for daily variants, Ones “agadaiwe DO-NOT tise winners tities “but PACE'OF THE RACE/ times) ‘because they’ have proven more predictive, and: for nos other" reasony Since you have already made variant figures for the track you play the nost regularly, the basis for your track to track equalization figures has been established. Merely follow the same procedure for other tracks involved. You have considerably more laticude in making track to track equalization figures. You may lump together different class levels (no more than 307 apart, however) and use races from daily variants that are withia THREE on each side of average. Do separate figures for Six Furlongs, ONE MILE and a Mile and 1 1/6th. If these distances are not run at your track USE the distances nearest to them. For the most part the track to track equalization figures in the manual are close to accurate AT MOST TRACKS; BOT CERPAINLY NOT AT ANY TRACK WHERE THE SURFACE HAS BEEN ALT- ERED SINCE 1982 OR WHERE THE HARD WINTER OF '84 IN THE EAST AND MID-WEST HAS LEFT IT MARK ON TRACK SURFACES. Our revised Manual, soon to be released, will contain updated Equalization figures that will be as accurate as we can make them, But nobody is more qualified than YOU to make these figures for yourcircuit now that you know the formula. ALWAYS REMEMBER TO ADJUST EQUALIZATION FIGURES BY 20% PER TRACK CLASS LEVEL! Since we do not use the Sth of a second rule but measure everything in feet per second ovr figures up front are more precise. This contributes to our 45% margin of error latitude, so precision in making these figures is LESS IMPORTANT than CONSISTENCY OF CARTON! mw.Maxine A Teack ToTrack VARIANT 65. 6¢ R pualyers ATAGORIES AMOUNT G.G -S.A. GF SA ovo -NOLCATAGORIES AMOUNT = a0 $5 aND cae 447 Sie 2ND CALL 7 TL 7.77 sa. $4.54 $4.1 a aa 25F 6F GG $4.98 47,6 RSF SR SF 49.63 45.9 rrevennennetis penaienss tis - ave. = $4.88 poo: ave. $4.89 a7 aM. O¢ IMi- sa NO.CATAGORIES ARQUNE 00 NO.CATAGORIES amoUNT 070 coat ap ents cate LOMD Ghee $5.31 81.9 veeerennsrttiis 23F MI GG © SLeL6 48.2 et ee ee venteniaseners : ave. 83.24 - AVE. 92.40 +84 ' i ib Ge 1 58 AO.CATAGORIES anouMT 970 cate ce eu cele NO.cATAGURIES AMOUNT 90 eee cess 120 8.5F $8. 55.36 52.8 Lines oreeiiee Vee ents : pico eases ee he Gomme an eVect a 4-23 ave. : eS a a 1454 MO.CATAGORIES AMOUNT v0 res : aR Sg ano CALL we SurasORIES AMOUNT 0/0 ss.31 0 fh.¢ Dal SF GG SSPRR SHEN TENEEYE eee asa oF | 52,38 486 “2 5F GG 49.82 46.7 sae anrtts Penerenbnstt ts sae eg ge 138 l= ave. 52.47ENERGY & EXPENDITURE © A client from Oklahoma recently a alified for Charter Membership into PIRCO as a result of his outstendite success at Oaklawn Park in Hot Springs, Ark. He applied for membership based on a 57% win proficiency. I said that was not high enough. To which he replied: "Playing only ONE HORSE!". That IS spectacular. He now plays two horses with a proficiency close to 80% spot playing an average of 4 plays per day per track. He has been a client for less than five months and attributes his success to his background as an educational psychologist working for a well-known Oklahoma College as a TRACK COACH AND TRAINER. He understands ENERGY BXPENDITURE. He is keenly aware of ‘the kinetoxins that build up in the bloodstreams of humans and horse alike when muscles are in motion. He Imows that in a short dash maximal energy is required from starting plock to tape but that in longer races energy must be dispensed in a manner that reserves sufficient energy for ‘the final drive to the tape. He fully comprehends the laws of physics which tell us that for every unit of positive energy expenditure comes @ compensating loss of force. i.e! DECELERATION. For a shoroughbred to win it must be conditioned to have (a) enough TOTAL energy to compete at a given distance and clase level; and (b) a running style(Behavioral pattern) that conforus to the track's bias which dictates (¢) requirements for PERCENTAGE of EWERGY needed EARLY = (2nd Call) and LATE (3rd fraction). Make no mistake about it, BACH TRACK does impose ouch requirenents wid horses that cannot meet then will only win when there is a change in bias or when the horse, or horses fitting the ¥ of energy pattera fail to respond nomally, either because of condition problems or trouble @ncountered thet inyeded their normal behavior pattern. Heretofore we have used PACB OF THE RACZ in determining mn Zigures. To energy for track variant and equaliza understand WIN PAR ENERGY ve will use the pace of the WINNING HORSE. 26Before discussing Par Energy Zxpenditure as determined by winners total energy, energy percentage Zarly and late, let's establish some parameters for what constitutes an Rely Bias, @ Sustained Bias end No Biss (average). Average i is really a misnomer here because noebias tracks and/or i situations are a rarity. t Barly: SPRINTS.....52.6%—-up : ROUTES, ..4++52.4 = up LATE : SPRINTS.. 51 .8-down ROUTES. ..44.51 .6-down AVE: SPRINTS.....52.0 ROUTES. .444.52.0 There is a grey area between the average 52% Barly, 40% late that is biased siti y toward early oy late, but the above percentages dominate any track profile. Bob Purdy, Jr. of Pirco,has done profiles on all the California and New York tracks using winners tines at every class and distance for every racing day. Tae Furdy report reveals a remarkably consistent # Harly and * Late pattern for winners at all tracks surveyed. The nost important piecevof evidence’to by earabred. tron Se TTA Ee) ale is Foport is that a horde Gan win 18 10S Within’ “722/p/s) wee ee of TOL Win Par Eneray, bat Seldon wind whew bis # Barty: | end % Late exertion are not reasonably close to pars. | eSHnediesa Qinedaeaned! i Qo denonstrate the importance of win energy pars we have ! selected two races sent in by clients where the lov-odds favorites each lost to contenders going off at superior odds because the favorites did not demonstrate a running style that conormed to par energy expenditure. The races are a1 PINLICO and GOLDEN GATE respectively. aLTHe ConTEnreRs gM. 404) CUaDWG Pa ye andar pe Rite Se ete oe Fae hee a fee vcn cee farang Fe Cina Plas wee bac Ta ita career Se 2 oreo coer use “sy i. py et Sete ae a ee vent mS * Buds 514500 eae fee Tee Fav. g SEU ce renee + > cn MM hee HT Ea facie ie Abesy Saemjanniouabecm| Fey BER ents 2 UE ERG tase ects tac PSR rey Seiearmaearna ‘ Be als Sank Be ahaa ‘ BERD amit Eien alia ica | ERPS woot Bish iiamre rat ie | ERE SIRE 8b Gere Siecricritd wate! » Be USPRA En 3 ieee ae 5 Twat utontenetay ser Potaginne we tg tt Bae . Sas Bled tte oo! iN ih Ee oe ee EERILY OSD Atte tetmg he facto te | 2, we vat Bit ze PvcamieRock Mama anhaney tee meindy AS Orvng ao F eka f ow S24 Lote F = Fle a cB: 35 Sees, TT itiphicetyn Im te aditeron i berste ae meee heen iber ORO iat: UE BU Mie gaara EERE SLUM iatins! | "Meune eens aban sian” “ie tate Y | Cain Lerriton shag beeen ene Eiri; gs ae sale $14,500 ten eo Tew hb Bam | Wide scien Wee Ei iene ive Cran Bag 1 Soy wae a ee a Es Tanya Meaty § rote agen ua Ee Mew Ex atewae ber Soy we Ee ea Be fibemuemirgcterajpemrege Canes § TR Susiin teyaferiny He pees Prowl war t ie Supe Ort Toce Os sea et sMuteaSone Oe aie aq TRE REED ae Teta me NO Tia aa. a eure sytearteca taeew | APG inRG 28 RE Resicarari besetel ina at Aieltath $8 oe ie TEAM RE Tle iy We uaeowp Ate et t8* Brg MON BE Lonwpbnquetaeay 8 rv drnete eae Hh TR Ra carpenter MerarBoenT Mele fe EA Ye Pay etd er Meter Ey a a im ‘OYEST WORLOUTS” Sir hoe ad KH PISK IEE creme at (Cast Protas A etn nrecteteet thipos 8 ee Pes ua TES BELL | Satan an a enbrachenae mest Hd wor St rast Eta Sen Be br Tes Fann Me Rae See Get a Glos MBE gi hr eaten iy mig Suntan ee tae Eee eR a wba T= Bye be gene ch Sone ' eet: Uh felt mee Pia Le a Bienes RRR eRe Sw ‘s Ta orton ie) Moms Baha" ee oe : Sy erm Sas ali ta hoe =| The Also Rans Vela seer aS oe eau a Se 314,500 NG ee “ba iam Ne make hate dE SAL the By Youn Boag um wach teg Bat Binh Etat de “1 Bence eee ek anh as G faseemoeee ee oea Saree eal hace ge Lang luk wore ¥ ea au Rae Tg Ma foe Pecee nh me td ved? Reta ener Rate, gt | ER Pmt Le nC Mn Bs bet 3 a a 7 S| aw bene Eeeeun 91% Ea Wa lend Bet Prima tal Mme We Het ete emcee 1H Rome Sitcom alec tact 3] Neneh: ees Gercr ADU GR Me akg Flee Ibe Sate Bezie ' Orag 2 my Ea ep we Be eh toa kt eB Dh a ‘aest wondbuTs: Red Hot and Cole suscarmaety wenn & ey aeasseanry esto t De himseetone evanescence Watered? Bharat ou In ma enunpouer scotty tne Sepia tm ie Baked ams atten al | ERSTE SS te Ba dloebaciistee icoticuny a ByDy Rimaneest WD EN Toe ti Sees BUCH OPA 23.THE RACE Fimutco 187 Bees ath a ereezy crray -Faverire (OVD) TOURSEEED EEE REEPER ESA ECEREE INS 22ND CALLCEP > Seba for dhs chet SP SUSTAINED PRCE 53.9%0me 4 acre) a fom tips det P SE TRUE SPEED Sa. 18! oe7mer/Aul THEW OR PEt FACTOR W 53.8% CLASS way ADJUSTED W $4.69 * 83 Ka Pact Ee EE ATAUEEEEEEEEEEEEAEEEER sp7EX RAW 53.35 PAR DIF} SP ~A¥e etacinsg OH ADS D418 sori? + 9.187 pee PRA RRAEEA EEE y, - AE EM ERPLY $1698" S1.68 4 8,339 Jet cm /™ FasP Tae eReEErEeEtKEEy, ; ; EX LATE 42,02" 42,95 — 0,397) (hex eame~ 748 hoe eee eeoreerendireee ete VIRGIN TERRITORY Ano Fast pRonoTer ~ RAY WANNER FSEREEC EEC ERE CCD EE OEE 2ND CRLLCEP) 54.01 SUSTAINED PRCE 52.61 TRUE SPEED 53.13 SEECEE CREE DUCE REE REECE EER EEE 2ND CALLCEP) 54.42 SUSTAINED PACE 52.08 TRUE SPEED $3.5 RAN FACTOR k 51.66 class RAW FACTOR W_ 52.52 CLASS ADJUSTED H E24 74 AOJUSTED Ho 52.14 -62 IESE EO OSCE ECE ER OER CORRE, FACED CORE EE RE REIL EX RAN 52.61 PAR DIF EX RAN $3.05 EX ADJ 53.a5e S817 - 8.56 EX ADJ 53.7 Perertreetrtrecacd Spree kbenccext % EX EARLY $1.33 51.65 - 0.32 % EX EARLY $1.27 51.65 - 6.38 PEEK OOCCEEEECEREE fivserscsterersced HEX LATE 48.67 48.95 + 0.32 % EX LATE 48.73 48.38 + 8.38 ERE EAEEE SKEET EEOC RRERE EE THE RESOLTS CO REX EEKEX EEE REE RE EE REE EORERS, Srere -— oe em — 6-4eToe Covprir While the favorite, Breezy Spray, WON its last out at Pim lico and the race before at Bowie, it did so with an UN- CONTESTED Early lead. Today the ONLY OTHER Early pace Horse is: B THE CABLE ROCK RACE #1 18ST _2ND SRD 2CTOT“4 $6.41 55,93 51.56 56.17 55.02 +41 $8.93 51.56 5 This sprinter of questionable class has only one chance at today's route distance: to steal the race by taking an early lead and going wire to wire. It almost did, fine ishing 3rd. The important thing is that Cable Rock lured A Breezy Spray into going too fast too soon with the result tht the horses closest to PAR EARLY and LATE won and placed. A BREEZY SPRAY was +.33, Far too fast EARLY for Pimlico at its present (March 31) Win Energy style. The Cable Rock was even higher, +.70 off of 7 furlongs. Par Early is (was) only 51.65 as Pimlico was running SUSTAINED. THE CABLE ROCK JESSE Sebo oe bno opooorenine pet 2ND GALLEEP) 56.17 SUSTAINED PACE 9.87 TRUE SPEED 54.1 RAW FACTOR WH 88.02 cuass ADJUSTED 38.23 223i Garay Ent EEREEAAAAE SAAT EE RARE EAE SEE Agustin Te REX RAW 58-87 gppeunt _PRe DIF Rovte would VEX ADJ 54.020 ga.ir + are WWE eeereteriteeteat be onty S147 2 EM EARLY 52,14 51,65 + 0.49 Sprorkiiear een cee “EM LATE 47.86 48.95 - 0.49 pertctitets is teereecioioes cote cd Since both A Fast Promoter and Virgin Territory Qualified on the basis of Par TOTAL energy, their figures closest to % of PAR Early and Late, made them standout choices. 21GRAPHING THE RACE ‘The Importance of PAR ENERGY EXPENDITURE - TOTAL - % EARLY © LATE Horses can be as mich as .72 ¢/p/s UNDER TOTAL ENERGY PAR IF they meet the % Early % Late specification etter than other contenders with MORE total Energy. In this Race BOTH A FAST PROMOTER and VIRGIN TERRITORY Qualified under the TOTAL ENERGY parameters. eat udentt Ayr Exergy Chart eesti ‘Rawcies IFT Race Rmcrce Vo Race Enersy- 2p CALE With Both Breezy Spr: and The Gable Rock ‘|demonstrating too fast an early energy patt PAR 85 CR FP WHY A BREEZY SPRAY LOST 32.4nd’ Golden Gate wane Ss Re mmmarE et os cata re Pate et omens tA om 8 San Cotas EC Ray 6 8 Pate Fn. cee tere AT Cot ty foe doo = = Sete SePreu coy 8M conte outa 69 eaLumstnecn enti Bhi Conte Guten PL Mteneeani Linen 4 Q 15M. LediCeLeUTe Mbt I a0 ORM AE Celestron Dente iiifenn Mt WH Ri lenses SotSlf orate Coa me 8 endo yF 8 at 1. Heater ovens Sw Set nama Ob na eagee asses J TecEsz DateehTan bedtatne retreated Ra pmoanc ny heuran f omeZuo Race - Gooey Gare- Feb 23-34 Seer aa er Se ESTLeT TESH on ANNIE, QND_CALL (EPL os +++ +53 2ND_CALL, (EE) SUSTAINED Paces... 285 ZuSraiNep Pace Rau TRUE SPEED... . +33 Rau TAUE SPEEO. Rau FACTOR Uo 212.1 -30 Rag FACTOR Us. 6 . GLASS SDJUSTHENT 12. Bune SDUUSTHENT bh ASUUSTED FACTOR UW: +50 Bodusteo FACTOR U 2x Rau gi-42 par Os"F ex RAY S2-34 cee, (S78 % 8 860 82:58 MaactS BGs $2.34 S8lee a3TFE —<—= TEC EARLY 20,68 51.9803.32 XO ———— WaEX EARLY £2.12 $1.98 40 a eeeX LATE 47-02 48.04-0.22 SEX LATE 4-36 42-06 43-3 SS 2 QuL KIT ALTO HBES 2ND CALL (EP) ..--+ 52-35 2ND_ CALL SUSTAINED BAC! 52-82 i SUSTAINED Bac TRUE: SPEEC... Bu TRUE SPE! Rau FACTOR u. Rag FACTOR U CLASS _sQUUS HEAT. GLASS ADUU BouusTee FacTOR ROJUSTED F ex RAU 52.8 PRR CIs gx RAY S229 PAR _ | DIFF 5 EX Abu 52:82 S222 40.38 =x AOU 52.32 32,224.03 2 Ko tg EX EARLY 50.23 51,9801.72 Sg EX EARLY SQ.43 $1.96~2-55 —< DgEX LATE 49.77 48,04 42.75 . 8/gEX LATE 49.57 48-04 41-56 SS TOU Evauuation 2G ERhee EBter EEGs Protest Fo Terme Paw: {Transom Meus Beat ‘ Hee ROUUSTED FeECTOR ..S2.4> Closest Te Ena Pra: F Tem Re ————————— 2 Parmer (oor BRU ELSE Baan 008d" + dea ————— Closest To Late Pres jo EX ERRLY $1.75 $1.9809.2 & Perguar -Covt. geereee eee ? ae SyeEX LATE 48.24 48,04 40.2 ————_—_—_—_——— Perever ss 9 agg Br aes ute heey OTe Herre Thelen creer tert 5 Racer “= Taasn Gn Anand never Stout Exo prevy Speco TO A cous Nery -Taw Gar of Enecy Pak-Theew 27 “Faun, WL ChoseeT Te GINT Pars ~ OF Auto Heres 2nv Closest Te Z uum Pans -- ole ‘ar rece Peas” Thee Got Fantucst From terme | Pereucr 2: Tome rte Facrucst tron Eacly Fh 4, Tes Gy fois’) 2 Cou, WITT WINER: Tanikort. F192 708" Pines sAcotiges “2's a_ GOLDEN GATE/ Charts egeipeees 62 or ego Par Energy Expenditure Selected Toni Kay L and Alto Hopes in the 2nd Race at Golden Gate. It eschewed the First and Second betting choices, Traoh Can Annic and Potelet who ran 4th and last respectively. Had you been playing this race in one of the legal Nevada Books, the Quinella would have been $58.90. Quinella payoffs are 1/2 the place horse's Place Mutuel X the Win Mutuel. 35°mens T TAL OOO OO % Second Call © @ @ ) % 3rd Frac. @ @ D Out of the myriad of "Hossy Sayings" passed down over the years perhaps the most significant is,"There are Horses for Courses." Animal behaviorists from Pavlov to Watson, from Thorndike and Koffka to Barrera and Frankyl and Whittingham have proved this. The final three names will not be found in medical text books; but to the handicapper, training a horse to cross the finish line first is every bit as important as getting a dog to respond to the tinkling of a bell. In our discussion of ENERGY EXPENDITURE we will demonstrate that tracks’ have Energy Pars, TOTAL, EARLY and LATE and ‘that rougily 90S°67 all Winners conform to: thease parsy In a multiple thousand race computer Study We have discovered that when a horse has a decided CLASS ADVANTAGE over the other contenders it can defy the parameters of par. It is for this reason, AND THIS REASON ALONE, that we apply our class adjustments, ZARLY or SUSTAINED, in accordance to the running bias of the track. ENERGY EXPENDITURE FINLICO HEREGEEEE! HEUEEUEEE BARU LA EARLY -LAT: PROFILE ~ PIMLICO PROFILE PINLICO-ROUTES 36.EXAMPLES To yyt= SB. 9A FeRy= 2512 F2.3G LATE = The forma for deter= ® of Energey: and Call f/p/s + 3rd FRAC {/p/s= Total Divide 2nd call £/p/s Tora® We3fr, 5565 5 SHIR MES Pheu: 52.933 S234, WS caper 11078 HH: Ses et $2 Mutuel Pricess POMS Fen _ Hroadorten tutta <= ae soe aac eae oo ” Track To Trach Var: ‘A PARK CHARTS RECAP rng canine Fem Fe Re neg Sh eer ener Spm ecooneen) bat ntarntn Ceuey, TMP GOATOnE 4522 58. as 52.8 oa Teta: 110.74, v/2. 25547 58.112 009 Ehaty 52407 $2.90 F1098 LATE 42. 6o7 419] Thace te TRACK Vaaiant“BND CALL. ENERGY PROFILE OF A HORSE Picked at Random: STAGE GOSSIP CLASS RANGE: $32500 to $16000 a Claiming Stage Gossip BLL tro wie es asal Reet rt 1067 NOs et 2 BU ‘mae a Tt ua ents , Jeu ww wn soroncncouinsigesoe Reus gem gue cue Ee z fea Mon Doses bao aan Sdaie Te ate emoie Gan dtehings Soin GP ent Suis 1B etter state 0 hes aus SPEED "yy OF ENERGY-LATE.. 143.52 1 scatman caaahemmmatinns ETE BND CALL, BRO FRACTION. :52.3 aseentcsg sar snciaeac SENNERSPETACMENER TRUE SPEED "yy OF ENERGY-ERAL yy OF ENERGY-LATE STAGE GOSSIP ADU I.DRT. DISTANCE..6 BNC CALI 154,83 BRE FRactiON: 152185 Ferme sear DENNESS “TOTAL ENERO SS ty, oF enenoy-seniy, Gag |. 1 oF EN pg OF ENERGY-LATE. «182 veep DISTANCE yy OF ENERGY-EAR pg OF ENERGY-LATE. ar TENNESS“ToTaC oe TRUE SPEED ew SE ee 52.92% ene DISTANCE. 6 NBREY SE TRUE SPEED 54,05 "/— OF ENERGY-EARLY. 54.07% © /_ OF ENERGY-EARLY, 54-12 "yy OF ENERGY=Li DISTANCE. «6 _acennasomcmnensconedeiesemenmesieee +55.29 SRD FRACTION: 750 . ~ emamcsemzmameo DYSNERE TOAD ENER SY TES TE TRUE SPI Be.ce ya OF ENERGY-ERRLY..S2298 4 4 yy OF ENERGY-LATE...47.04 x “eee Tanned By F 38 fq OF ENERGY-LATE. 45.93 x4 2.145.855 XX TRACED BY 16 aT TF DISTANCE. .7 secant RAO BND CALL. 2... 55-84 Sab FRACTION. .E1.65 GENNERS“TaTac ENEREY TRUE SPEED $3.28 pg OF ENERGY-EARLY..51-37 oy OF ENERGY-LATE...42. ‘corniceENERGY PROFILE - GE GOSSIP The handicapping experts in the Race Track Sar will tell you that there is no such thing as energy pars; that the Jockey can rate a horse to run to any energy pattern. If this were true all THE FIT HORSES in a given race would finish in a dead heat. Horses, like people, have definite, measurable behavior patterns. We have the tools to understand and cap- italize on these patterns. Horses apparently don't, since they've never been known to bet on people. AVE. 4 OF ENERGY EXPENDED-EARLY, LATE TRE ee aes a ggg mmm When we can accept the fact that each track “WH Ea imposes specific energy pars, Total, #Early and won usa % Late, we will begin looking for horses whose “Wig Masi running style fits the pars. This horse, though gma mwa seldom a winner, demonstrates a consistent ~wai maa =% of Early Energy and % of Late Energy even though its TOTAL energy expenditure will differ ZERL markedly by distance and Class Level. STAGE GOSSIF er) = Se) Se 7 ee oe et es a em Tes es BT em an et ea Tm ee Bet a ss Te ee ae FLP/S 4 EARLY ENERGY VRS. ENERGY PERCENT The important revelation of these charts is that STAGE GOSSIP, like most horses,extends its PERCENTAGE of Energy-Early and Late, with amazing consistency. Its ‘ENERGY “EXPENDITURE in terms of VELOCITY (f/p/s) however, shows a much wider deviation. Several thousands of such examples in our computer bank demonstrate con- clusively that horses can be conditioned (trained) to run with greater TOTAL velocity but that altering their behavior pattern (running style) is difficult. 39The importance of understanding and accepting as fact the reality of Animal Behavior is so great that we will labor the point just a little longer Stage Gossip vas our case in point, Put you may argue thet this horse was a mediocre plater and a poor investment risk; that a suyerior horse would not manifest so distinct a behavior pattern. How about Secretariat? No thoroughbred ig so universully accepted as the "greatest" as is this animal. So let's look at Secretariat's entire record in races UNDER a nile and one-quarter. I omitted them, not because they did not also reflect a pattern common with the others, but because we DO NOT use distances OVER a mile andthreesixteenths for handicapping. When evaluating such races we equalize lines from common distances at a mile and 3/16th or less. Secretariat's dnergy Profile fills the next three yayes It falle into three cluster groups. The first six races represeat one stage in the chatpions career; the next five, another stage. In the final three examples, two are Zrom distances which in themselves demand different enerey requireents: 5.5 furlongs and 7 furlongs. When you apply this technique you will readily see that races at 5, 5.5, 7 and 7.5 furlongs are run differently by ALL horses. Hence only ONS race, the Kile example on the third page of our Secretariat profile, deviates from the norm. You will note that even in the two LOSSES, Secretariat's energy, Early and late %, remained static. In the firet six races Secretariat's Late energy at distances ranging from 6 furlongs to a mile and one-eighth had a maximal deviation of .82 In the second of the cluster groups Secretariat's maximal deviation waa: .66, ssean average deviation of: .74. Behavior Pattern Running style 2nd Call NORMAL DEVIATIONLIEBER EASA RBA A DATE. TRACK.. RACE NO... DISTANCE.. 6.5 CLES NNN RETR CS 2ND CALL... +6. 57.27 SRD FRACTION... 54.46 een Na EL WINNERS TOTAL ENERGY.. 55.87 TRUE SPEED.. 56.15 % OF ENERGY-EARLY..... 51.26 % OF ENERGY-LATE, + 48.74 ac trammotnmanmnet ieedacieadaraaaRRSaE Hanae DATE... TRACK. , RACE NO. DISTANCE... 6 NSN MNS RENE ‘2ND CALL. 57.39 SRD FRACTION. ed WIHNERS TOTAL ENERGY.. 55.59 TRUE SPEED.. 56.09 53.86 % OF ENEROY-EARLY..... 51.68 % OF ENERGY-LATE...... 43.32 cm AOA SSH REE era DAT: TRACK.. RACE NO.. ROUTE 1 MILE DISTANCE... 3 2HD CALL. SRD PRACT IO AINNERS TOTRL ENERSY.. 55.83 TRUE SPEED.. 55.58 2 OF ENGRGY-EARLY.. 1 EERE RARER DATE. TRACK... RACE NO. .NILE 1/8TH MILE 173TH DISTANCE... 9 sonra NAN “2ND CALL. S7.14 3RD FRACTION.. 54.35 oneness aati ass WINNERS TOTAL ENERGY.. 56 i TRUE SPEED.. 56.36 % OF ENERGY-EARLY, % OF ENERGY-LATE. FERREIRA RII E DATE... TRACK... RACE NO. . MN 1 Sec. Lost ee 2HD CALL. 53.7 BRD FRACT. Bi? 7" TOTAL ENERSY TRUE SPEED., 54.3 % OF ENERGY-EARLY..... 51.86 4 OF ENERGY-LATE...... 43.14 Fare eRe Tea DATE... TRACK.. RACE HO.. ‘suisse WINKERS TCTAL EMERY ED.. 33.74 sees BLS 43.75| eiesicernbianannieanieee DATE... 2ND CALL. BRD FRACT 33.53 TOTAL ENERDY.. 53.55 TRUE SPEED.. 53.71 % OF EMERGY-EARLY..... 50.44 OF ENERGY-LATE...... 49.56 SELLE EET THE DATE... TRACK. + RACE NO. DISTANCE... 6.5 “ND 'CALL: sess 3.65 SRD FRACTION. . $5.74 WINNERS TOTAL ENERGY... 5. TRUE SPEED.. 56.2 4 OOF ENERGY-ZARLY..... 8.4 % OF ENERGY-LATE, J sheehbeesHerReRenbenbr Renate DATE, TRACK, RACE NOL. DISTANCE.. 6 SRD FRACT 3S WINNERS TOTAL ENERDY.. 38.28 TRUE SPEED,. 35.93 % OF ENERGY-EARLY..... 50.16 % OOF Eni FE DATE... TRACK, RACE NOL. DISTANCE... 6 TRUE SPEED.. 96.57 BOF ENERDY-BARLY..... 30.75 % GF ENERGY-LATE, + 49.25 15 BEER EEE EEE EERE DATE... TRACK. . RACE NO. . PREAKNESS ME BieTHS DTSTANCE.; 3.5 ‘ernest: 55.46 2ND CALL. BRD FRACTION, eenensnosen nanos taunts WIHNERS TOTAL ENERGY. . 54.53 TRUE SiTRUE SPEED.. 55.59 % OF ENERGY-EARLY, SE ect segagrnrenneneenngnanicnt DISTANCE.. 3°, ee yt Seen: S86 ese | he rma emcmecacermmmenes Ero FaecTiGN B28 ( TRUE SPEED.. 56.52 WINNERS TOTAL ENERGY.. 55.27 Yeo OF ENERGY-EARLY. ++ 52.03 e+ 52.61 ypS_% OF ENERGY-LATE...... 47.37 MSN ESR RIERA SOE TETEER, > % OF ENERGY-LATE...+++ 33 EEA TROT nescence ITSTANCE.. 5.5 2ND CALL. «+ SRD FRACTION, TRUE SPEED.. 55.59 % OF ENERGY-EARLY. | % OF ENERGY-LATE. eemneensemnnatacseati 43.STAGE GOSSIP'S Ave. deviation, in the races where tt was contending was....90! cmp I underline end Gnphagize these figares because they are the keys to the future of smeegsfud tendicapping. The researchers who tested this adaptation of the aethodology are euploying ‘the factors of win energy pars in relationship to horse ency hovering vehavior patterns with an amazing win consist close to S0%-AVERAGE. Stage Gossip Secretariat os a sit a peat gheesy DeUrAT. Naturally, when a race is deviod of contenders that truly £it the per model it is best to pass or regard it as a speculative risk, On an average there are 4 playable races per 9 race card that qualify according to the model, the space we have dedicated to this subject should not lead you to think it is a difficult process to apply. Brohaner, of Pirco,has reduced it to a formula that takes Factor Ton put a few minutes each day. The final section of Andysis, part I, is dedicated to TOM'S own explanation of making win energy and Par Energy % fact and easy. 44e ENeRs? Pimuice CLASS: 14999 CL. 440 UP-co WG avo ein TTL enney sari? si.a3 $2.19 $1031 AVG AYG AWG AVG ssi? steda secre oteat L Ne CLASS: 17@8ecL F-n 2NO FIN TTL EARLY 55.58 51.36 53.47 51.57 AVG AVG AVG AVG 95.58 51.36 53.47 51.97 LASS: 27008 AU. 2v0 2ND FIN TTL EARLY 54.62 52.72 53.57 58.89 AVG AVG RVG AVG 54.62 52.72 53.67 50,89 CLASS<9509 AN. avi 6 ND FIN TTL EARLY 56.17 $4.13 55.14 53.94 AvG AVG AVG AVG SE.17 54.10 55.14 50.94 He ass+18000 aN. vo UP 2ND FIN TTL EARLY. $5.15 51.39 53.52 51.52 ANG AVG RVG AVG 35.15 51.39 93.52 51.52 CLASS: 17089 AW. 470 UP oF 2ND FIN TTL EARLY 56.59 54.32 55.43 91.98 avG AVG AG AVG. 36.83 54.32 $5.43 $1.00 CLASS: 39GR9HAND. S70 UP 2ND FIN TTL EARLY 52.32 $5.09 $1.59 BUG AVG AVG 53.30 55.89 51.59 iazagcyn, 3vo Late 48.69 AG 42.69 LATE 48,03 avG 49.03 LATE 43.41 AVG 49.41 GATE 43.05 ave 49.08 LATE 43.43 avG 48.43 LATE 43.90 RUG 49.00 Late 48.41 RUG 48.41 SAnTa Anita [EEG F-» v0 ur 2ND FIN TTL EARLY LATE 57.83 $4.21 $6.92 51.62 43.33 AVG AVG AVG AG AVG 57.83 54.21 56.92 51.62 48.38 cuass-27000 au. (FAO 310 2ND FIN TTL EARLY LATE 98.15 $2.34 55.55 $2.34 47.66 AVG AVG AVG AVG AVG. 58.15 52.94 55.55 52.34 47.66 CLASS: 49808 CLI sos crass, 36008 AW. F-M 4¥0 UP 2ND FIN TTL EARLY LATE 55.46 53.51 54.49 59.93 49.11 AVG AVS AVG AVG RUG 55.46 53,51 54.49 50.99 49.11 CLASSFS.STFUR 20009 cL 4 v0 UP 2ND FIN. TTL EARLY LATE 95.38 49.55 $2.47 52,73 47.22 AVG AVG AG ANG RUG $5.38 49.55 92.47 52.78 47.22 CLASS: 180900 STKS 4 YO UPIGZ,, 2ND FIN TTL EARLY LATE 55.77 53,51 84.64 51.03 49.97 AVG AVG AVG AVG AVG 95.77 53.51 $4.64 51.99 48.37 cuass ELSE so0oe cum. 4 v0 ur 2ND FIN TTL EARLY LATE 96.25 59.30 53,29 52.79 47.21 ave AVG AVG AVG AY 56.25 5.90 53,26 $2.78 47.21ComPAritve ENERGY Golnen Gate GG E.SF 1peDaCLM, FM avo UF DISTANCE. .6.5 2ND SOLb 32. BE-77 SRE SRRETION: :E8 WENNER E “POPE Eee /_ OF ENERGY-EFRL "y_ OF ENERGY-LATE. GG IMIL 16e00 AU. FIL so DISTANCE. .& BND CALL. eee E5692 BRO FRACTION: /81:28 WERNERSE"TOTaO"ENeRey 33.22" "/y OF ENERGY-EARLY. «51.95 Sy _ OF ENERGY -LATE...98.05 Ge SF e500 CLH. FH avo UP DISTANCE..6 ee ano CALL. SRE RBaersan: 181/28 CINMERE“ TOTAL ENEREV SETS "/ 4 OF ENERGY-EARLY. .52.57 8 /q OF ENERSY-LATE.. 147420 ecnmimaernnanec da 66.8.8 25000 CLM. syC UP DISTANCE. .8.8 enema ATT 2ND CALL. +... -58-S7 SRD FRACTION: 150.9 UESNERS "Tote ENeRGT.Se-cs ©) OF ENERGY-EARLY. .S2.92 ©) OF ENERGY-LATE.. 147.07 RRL TEIN 4 rq OF ENERGY-EARLY.. "4a OF ENERGY-LATE...47.5¢ GGeF 40 UP e502 con. 46, DISTANCE. .9 _ assem eisrmieeneinnreset 2ND CALL... 55-83 Sao SRACTEON! Lislet DINNERS PORAC eneney. ea. 4 OF ENERGY-ERRLY. «53.3 8 _ OF ENERGY-LATE.«. cnaieransancoinatarnaiieroinnibeahaas Ge SF 12800 CL svO Ue DISTANCE..6 2ND CALL. ....,58-41 SRO FRACTION: 152.05 GENNERS TOTAL EneRey 2.2 "/_ OF ENERGY-EAALY..52.72 7/9 OF ENERGY-LATE...<7.28 Ge 25000 cL @.sF DISTANCE, .8.5 2ND CALL... +S. 288 FeabrsEn: 139722 UENNERS"ToTat ENeRey S22 "OF ENERGY-ERRLY..51.56 8/9 OF ENERGY-LATE.