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02 BSCM v3.2 Master
02 BSCM v3.2 Master
Demand Management
Session 2
Capacity
Introduction to Material Management
Demand Master
Supply Chain Requirements and Production
Management Planning
Management Planning Activity
Control
Theory of
Aggregate Purchasing Lean/JIT and
Item Inventory Constraints
Inventory and Physical Quality
Management and Review
Management Distribution Systems
Activity
6. 7. 8. 9. 10.
Estimate Demand
– Calculate and explain the logic of an exponential smoothing
forecast
– Explain the logic behind the calculation of a seasonal forecast
– Calculate and explain the use of the mean absolute deviation
Demand
Management
Processes
Marketing
Management
Customer
Demand Relationship
Planning Management
(CRM)
Product Positioning/
Differentiation, and Potential Order Order Qualifying
Qualifying and and Order
Market Segmentation Winning Products Winning Products
Decisions
Product
Price
Promotion
Place
Characteristics
of Demand
Forecasts
Customer orders
Replenishment orders from DCs
Interplant transfers
Other
Increasing
Decreasing
Level
Demand
Quarters
Quarters
4
Demand
Quarters
Average demand
Forecasting
Physical units of
Master Scheduling production at the end 3 to 18 months
item level
Forecasts
– Are rarely 100% accurate over time
– Should include an estimate of error
– Are more accurate for product groups and families
– Are more accurate for nearer periods of time
Month 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
A 6000 6000
B 500 500 500 500 500 500 500 500 500 500 500 500
Average
1500 1500 1500 1500 1500 1500 1500 1500 1500 1500 1500 1500
Forecast
Forecasting
Techniques
Forecasting
Techniques
Qualitative Quantitative
Judgment Mathematics
Intrinsic Extrinsic
(Time Series) (Causal)
Examples
– Moving Averages
– Exponential Smoothing
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan
Mo.1 Mo.2 Mo.3
92 83 66 74 75 84 84 81 75 63 91 84 ?
Key: = Sum
MONTH 4 FORECAST
Three-Month Next-Month
Month Demand
Total Forecast
1 102
2 91
3 95
4 105
5 94
6 101
Three-Month Next-Month
Month Demand
Total Forecast
1 102
2 91
3 95 288 96
4 105 291 97
5 94 294 98
106
Actual
104
Forecast
Demand
98
3 288 96
96
4 291 97
94
5 294 98
92
6 300 100
90
0 2 4 6 8
Period
Take the old forecast and the actual demand for the
latest (most current) period
Assign a weighting factor or smoothing constant
(α, alpha) to the latest period demand vs. the old
forecast
Calculate the weighted average of the old forecast and
the latest demand
Calculate the forecast for June using a smoothing constant (α) of .20
Calculate the forecast for July also using a smoothing constant (α) of .20
Average demand
for all periods
Demand (units)
Seasonal demand
Time (quarters)
420
= = 105 units
4
= (seasonal index)
Expected quarter demand (deseasonalized forecast
demand)
Expected first quarter demand = 1.28 X 105 = 134 units
Expected second quarter =
1.02 X 105 = 107 units
demand
Expected third quarter demand = .75 X 105 = 79 units
Expected fourth quarter =
.95 X 105 = 100 units
demand
Total forecast demand = 420 units
Tracking the
Forecast
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Total
Forecast 500 500 500 500 500 500 500 500 500 500 500 500 -
Actual 460 520 530 490 460 500 530 490 530 480 490 520 -
Absolute
40 20 30 10 40 0 30 10 30 20 10 20 260
deviation
| |A
| - F|
MAD = n
n
-3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 MAD
Wrap-Up and
Homework
Estimate Demand
– Calculate and explain the logic of an exponential smoothing
forecast
– Explain the logic behind the calculation of a seasonal forecast
– Calculate and explain the use of the mean absolute deviation
Objective:
– Reinforce terminology used in this session
– Complete the activity in class, individually or in pairs, or as
homework