Introduction to Hypothesis Testing

Social Work Statistics

The first step in hypothesis testing is to set up two competing hypotheses. The hypotheses are the most important aspect.
If the hypotheses are incorrect, your conclusion will also be incorrect.
The two hypotheses are named the null hypothesis and the alternative hypothesis.
1. Null hypothesis
The null hypothesis is typically denoted as H0. The null hypothesis states the "status quo". This hypothesis
is assumed to be true until there is evidence to suggest otherwise.
2. Alternative hypothesis
The alternative hypothesis is typically denoted as Ha or H1. This is the statement that one wants to conclude. It is
also called the research hypothesis.
The goal of hypothesis testing is to see if there is enough evidence against the null hypothesis. In other words, to see if
there is enough evidence to reject the null hypothesis. If there is not enough evidence, then we fail to reject the null
hypothesis.
Consider the following example where we set up these hypotheses.
Example 1
A man, Mr. Hipolito, goes to trial and is tried for the murder of his ex-wife. He is either guilty or innocent. Set up the null
and alternative hypotheses for this example.
Answer:
Putting this in a hypothesis testing framework, the hypotheses being tested are:
1. The man is guilty
2. The man is innocent
Let's set up the null and alternative hypotheses.
H0: Mr. Hipolito is innocent
Ha: Mr. Hipolito is guilty
Remember that we assume the null hypothesis is true and try to see if we have evidence against the null. Therefore, it
makes sense in this example to assume the man is innocent and test to see if there is evidence that he is guilty.

The Logic of Hypothesis Testing

We want to know the answer to a research question. We determine our null and alternative hypotheses. Now it is time to
make a decision.
The decision is either going to be...
reject the null hypothesis or...
fail to reject the null hypothesis.

Note! Why can’t we say we “accept the null”? The reason is that we are assuming the null hypothesis is
true and trying to see if there is evidence against it. Therefore, the conclusion should be in terms of
rejecting the null.
Introduction to Hypothesis Testing
Social Work Statistics

Consider the following table. The table shows the decision/conclusion of the hypothesis test and the unknown "reality", or
truth. We do not know if the null is true or if it is false. If the null is false and we reject it, then we made the correct
decision. If the null hypothesis is true and we fail to reject it, then we made the correct decision.

So what happens when we do not make the correct decision?

When doing hypothesis testing, two types of mistakes may be made and we call them Type I error and Type II error. If we
reject the null hypothesis when it is true, then we made a type I error. If the null hypothesis is false and we failed to reject
it, we made another error called a Type II error.
Introduction to Hypothesis Testing
Social Work Statistics

Example 1. Cont…
A man, Mr. Hipolito, goes to trial and is tried for the murder of his ex-wife. He is either guilty or not guilty. We found
before that...
H0: Mr. Hipolito is innocent
Ha: Mr. Hipolito is guilty
Interpret Type I error, α, Type II error, β.
Answer:
Type I Error:
Type I error is committed if we reject H0 when it is true. In other words, when the man is innocent but found
guilty.
α:
α is the probability of a Type I error, or in other words, it is the probability that Mr. Hipolito is innocent but found
guilty.

Type II Error:
Type II error is committed if we fail to reject H0 when it is false. In other words, when the man is guilty but found
not guilty.
β:
β is the probability of a Type II error, or in other words, it is the probability that Mr. Orangejuice is guilty but
found not guilty.

As you can see here, the Type I error (putting an innocent man in jail) is the more serious error. Ethically, it is
more serious to put an innocent man in jail than to let a guilty man go free. So to minimize the probability of a type I error
we would choose a smaller significance level.

Try it!

An inspector has to choose between certifying a building as safe or saying that the building is not safe. Set up the
null and alternative hypotheses. Interpret Type I and Type II errors.