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Abstract
Background and objectives Taiwan is among the few hepatitis B virus (HBV)
high-endemic countries that implement universal mini-pool nucleic acid testing
(MP-NAT) and hepatitis B surface antigen (HBsAg) testing together with confir-
matory individual donor nucleic acid testing (ID-NAT) for its blood supply since
2013. The aim of this study was to reappraise the value of HBsAg test in Tai-
wan’s HBV testing strategy.
Materials and methods A Markov model was constructed, and cost-effectiveness
analysis was conducted in order to reappraise the existing HBV screening strat-
egy in Taiwan.
Results The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) for the current testing
strategy in Taiwan was estimated to be $US 443 154 per quality-adjusted life
year (QALY) gained. This is almost six times the willingness-to-pay (WTP) thresh-
old that reflects local preferences.
Conclusion Universal HBsAg and MP-8-NAT together with confirmatory ID-NAT
testing prevents a significant amount of HBV infections from entering the Taiwan
blood supply. However, this comes at a disproportionate increase in cost.
Received: 30 June 2020,
revised 11 November 2020, Key words: hepatitis B virus, blood safety, HBsAg test, NAT testing, cost-effec-
accepted 15 November 2020 tiveness analysis, Markov model.
1
2 T. B. Matanhire and S.-W. Lin
algorithms [9]. The current practice for the detection of principles or policy recommendations for transfusion
HBV in Taiwanese blood donors involves the use of uni- practitioners especially in high-endemic areas.
versal HBV-NAT and HBsAg testing. In Taiwan, anti-HBc
testing is not universal because deferring anti-HBc-posi-
Materials and methods
tive units critically affects blood supply at a high cost in
medium to high-endemic areas [10]. When the first gen-
Blood donor examination
eration of HBV-NAT technology was licensed, questions
were raised whether it should replace HBsAg for screen- Taiwan has two centralized testing laboratories in
ing blood donors [11]. Yet, most developed countries that charge of the nationwide blood examination operations,
added universal HBV-NAT to their testing strategies at Taipei and Kaohsiung blood centre. Whole blood
retained the HBsAg test. Lack of relevant scientific evi- donations were screened for HBV between 1 June and
dence made it difficult for the regulatory bodies and 31 November 2017 (six months) at Taipei blood centre.
experts to support its discontinuation at the time [12,13]. These donations were tested for HBsAg using Freedom
More recently, the value of retaining HBsAg screening EVOlyzer and HBV-DNA using Procleix Ultrio Plus
where universal HBV-NAT and anti-HBc tests are used assay (Grifols, Emeryville, CA, USA) on the fully auto-
has become a subject of active discussion by several mated TIGRIS system.
researchers, with current evidence indicating diminutive Presently, every donated whole blood unit is univer-
value in its continued use. Although discontinuing such a sally tested for HBsAg and HBV-DNA using the testing
seemingly redundant screening test might result in cost algorithm (see Fig. 1) similar to the one described in the
reduction, the existence of credible ethical and scien- pilot study for introducing NAT for screening blood
tific objections makes dropping it highly challenging donors in Taiwan [20].
[10,14–16]. Primarily:
In spite of the considerations to discontinue HBsAg (i) HBsAg seronegative and seropositive samples are both
screening test as discussed above, the test remains valu- tested for HBV-DNA.
able in high-endemic areas where the use of anti-HBc is (ii) MP-8-NAT is universally used to test for HBV-DNA,
not universal. Taiwan is among the few high-endemic and reactive samples are confirmed with ID-NAT.
countries that implement universal HBV-NAT and HBsAg (iii) HBsAg seropositive samples that are unreactive to
testing for its blood supply since 2013 [17]. In a previous MP-8-NAT are tested for HBV-DNA with ID-NAT.
study, a majority of Taiwanese blood donors were found (iv) ID-NAT reactive samples that test positive for both
to be under 30 years old [18] and according to another HBV-DNA and HBsAg are considered as confirmed
study, the anti-HBc-positive rate in this population cases of HBV infection.
appears to have decreased over the past 30 years due to (v) ID-NAT reactive samples that test positive for HBV-
the extensive infant vaccination programme [19]. There- DNA and negative for HBsAg are considered as con-
fore, giving rise to the question whether Taiwan could firmed cases of HBV infection.
adopt the blood donor policy for low-endemic countries (vi) Donors with samples that test HBsAg-positive and
(excluding the blood donors who are anti-HBc-positive in are nonreactive to MP-NAT and ID-NAT are consid-
order to eliminate the potential sources of occult HBV ered infectious (according to the blood bank policy
infection). since there is no universal anti-HBc testing).
This study aimed to substantiate the value of the (vii) HBsAg seronegative and MP-NAT nonreactive dona-
HBsAg test in Taiwan’s HBV blood donor testing strategy. tions are classified as negative, and their blood is
More specifically, an HBV Markov model was constructed permissible for donation.
and cost-effectiveness analysis was conducted in order to In order to substantiate the value of HBsAg in the
reappraise the existing HBV screening strategy in Taiwan. existing testing algorithm, four blood donation screening
The integrated decision analytic model presented in this strategies were considered as follows:
paper is adjustable and can readily be reused to perform (1) No intervention (reference/base case)
economic evaluations of blood donor diagnostic tests for (2) HBsAg (EIA)
other related TTIs (see Supporting Information). (3) NAT (MP-8-NAT and ID-NAT)
First, it is expected that the results of this study can (4) HBsAg (EIA) plus NAT (MP-8-NAT and ID-NAT)
provide feedback on the performance of the existing HBV To begin with, the residual risk of posttransfusion
screening strategy in Taiwan. Second, provide recommen- infection for each screening strategy was determined and
dations for maintaining, modifying, or changing the then cost-effectiveness analysis was performed to deter-
existing strategy. Finally, provide useful insights, guiding mine the optimal strategy. Readers are referred to [21] for
Figure 1 General schematic diagram of the HBV blood screening algorithm at Taipei blood centre.
a concise summary of health economic study types rele- the disease progression were incorporated to resemble the
vant to blood safety intervention assessments. natural history of an HBV infection [25]. The Markov model
consists of seven states as depicted in Fig. 2.
All blood donors are tested in the initial state. It is
Threat of infection and recipient exposure
assumed that diagnostic window period transmissions to
Due to the transient nature of HBV, residual risk estima- transfusion recipients can occur from this initial state. It
tion for HBV is more intricate as compared to that of HIV is important to note two things for this Markov model.
and HCV [22]. This value is critical in the analysis of the First, the acute infection state is temporary because it has
cost-effectiveness model and it mainly depends on the short-term effects. In that regard, it is a tunnel state with-
incidence rate, prevalence and window period estimates. out a self-loop arrow, which means that a patient cannot
The residual risk estimates were obtained using the inci- spend no more than a single cycle in the acute infection
dent rate-WP risk day equivalent model [22,23] (see Sup- state [26]. Second, the Markovian memoryless property is
porting Information for more details). Over 80% of the assumed to those recipients whose acute infection
donations in Taiwan are from repeat donors with an aver- resolves and acquires lifelong immunity. State transition
age annual donation frequency of 175. probabilities for the model were synthesized from litera-
A recent population-based cohort study estimated ture and are provided in Table 1.
mean age of blood transfusion patients in Taiwan to be
584 years [24]. We considered the cohort that included
Testing costs, disease burden costs and health
this demographic group and other limited populations of
utilities
susceptible potential recipients of blood products in
which the vaccine nonresponse rate is substantial. Each state of the Markov model is associated with its
own costs and health utilities. The cost for HBV blood
screening comprised of reagent, equipment, personnel
Disease progression model
and other ancillary costs. Costs were estimated at Taipei
In order to estimate the costs and effects of an HBV transfu- blood centre. Disease burden costs for the chronic phases
sion-transmitted infection, a Markov disease model was of hepatitis B were obtained from a Taiwanese study
constructed. Stages that have the most significant impact on which was conducted from a national health insurance
Figure 2 Markov state diagram for the natural history of HBV infection (for state transition probabilities, see Table 1).
perspective [30]. The disease burden costs were adjusted consider potential transmission from the blood recipients
for inflation using the consumer price index for Taiwan. to their partners.
Due to the spontaneous nature in which acute hepatitis B To ensure that the analysis captured important differences
resolves, no healthcare costs were attached to the acute in costs and outcomes, the model was simulated using a life-
state [31]. The health-related quality of life (HRQoL) of time horizon for 35 cycles, with each cycle analogous to a
the recipients who get posttransfusion chronic hepatitis B year. The simulation was run for a cohort of 288 947. Half-
is an essential parameter in determining the cost-effec- cycle correction was not applied to the model as it often
tiveness of the blood safety interventions. The HRQoL produces wrong results for discrete Markov models [32].
values used for the Markov model were obtained from Costs and health effects were discounted at a rate of 35%
related literature. The testing costs, disease burden costs per annum for all the Markov state values.
and health utilities are summarized in Table 2. All costs Deterministic sensitivity analysis was conducted to
are denominated in United States dollars. investigate the effect of varying specific input parameters.
Probabilistic sensitivity analysis (PSA) was also performed
in order to ascertain the overall parameter uncertainty.
Economic evaluation
Appropriate distributions were assigned for all the input
Cost-effectiveness analysis was performed using the Mar- parameters and fitted using the mean and standard devia-
kov model to compare the four blood donor screening tion (Table 2). The PSA was repeated for 1000 simulations.
strategies under consideration. The estimated residual risk
value for each strategy was used to determine the number
Computational techniques
of recipients who could get infected with hepatitis B from
transfusion. This study considered HBV transmissions The health economic model for donor blood testing was
from the blood donors to the blood recipients but did not implemented in RStudio using the ‘heemod’ package [33],
and the results were post-processed to give graphical for the current strategy is almost six times more than soci-
summaries by interfacing model results with the global etal WTP threshold. The addition of MP-NAT to HBsAg sig-
environment of the ‘BCEA’ package [34]. nificantly increased the estimated total cost by over 70%.
However, there was slight increase in the estimated net
effectiveness.
Results
Residual risk and infectious Window Period days Deterministic sensitivity analysis
The residual risk estimates were found to be 176, 779 Deterministic sensitivity analyses showed that ICER values
and 384 per million donations for ‘HBsAg’, ‘NAT’ and were more sensitive to the residual risk estimates, transition
‘HBsAg plus NAT’, respectively. The lengths of the probability from acute infection to chronic hepatitis B, test-
infectious window periods are presented in Table 3. ing costs and the discount rate, respectively. The tornado
plot for the variables which had the most impact on the
ICER values is shown in Fig. A1 (see Appendix 1). Very
Cost-effectiveness summary
low residual risk estimates significantly increased the ICER
The cost-effectiveness results for the evaluated strategies value, whilst higher estimates decreased the ICER value. On
are summarized in Table 4. The incremental cost-effective- the other hand, very high discount rates significantly low-
ness ratio (ICER) for the current testing strategy in Taiwan ered the ICER value, whilst lower discount rates increased
was estimated to be $US 443 614 per QALY, whilst the the ICER value. For example, increasing the discount rate
willingness-to-pay (WTP) threshold that reflects local pref- to 85% per annum decreased the ICER value twofold and
erences is $US 70 000 per QALY [35]. Therefore, the ICER this could lead to bias against the HBsAg intervention.
Interventions Estimated total costs (US$) Cost difference (US$) Effectiveness (QALYs) Effectiveness difference (QALYs) ICER (US$/QALY)
Figure 3 Cost-effectiveness acceptability curves and frontier. The overlaid grey line shows the effectiveness frontier curve.
speculate that implementing universal ID-NAT could fur- that HBsAg is the preferred choice as indicated on the
ther reduce the risk of OBI in Taiwan with very limited CEAF. Additionally, occult hepatitis B remains the main
added efficiency and at a much higher cost. safety risk for blood transfusion in Taiwan. Excluding anti-
There are some limitations to this study and to our HBc-positive donors might help to eliminate potential
model. The donor test results that were utilized for analy- sources of occult HBV infection; however, the main draw-
sis were from a 6-month period. Obtaining test data that back for anti-HBc testing is that it results in the loss of a
covers a longer period would be beneficial in refining the high percentage of non-infectious carriers thereby seri-
residual risk estimates. Similar to previous studies [37], ously affecting the blood supply. Therefore, the HBsAg test
some of the input parameters that populate the model are remains valuable in high-endemic areas, especially in those
single study-based estimates (e.g. HRQoL values). There with blood operators that do not afford to use NAT.
are limited published data on region-specific health state
utilities for HBV. This could result in the increase of
Acknowledgements
uncertainty in such parameter estimates. Despite these
limitations, our model utilized some specific inputs based This study was partially supported by the Ministry of
on Taiwanese published data, for example the disease Science and Technology of Taiwan under the grant num-
burden costs. Previous studies in Taiwan have mostly ber MOST 103-2410-H-011-012-MY3 and MOST 106-
focused on efficacy research of adding NAT to HBsAg 2410-H-011-004-MY3. Any opinions, findings, and con-
screening in order to increase the safety against TTIs clusions or recommendations expressed herein are those
[20,40]. The results of our study further demonstrate the of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of
benefit of implementing such a screening strategy in the sponsors.
regions having significant OBI carriers such as Taiwan by
conducting cost-effectiveness analysis.
Conflicts of interest
The authors declare that they have no conflicts of interest
Conclusion
relevant to the manuscript submitted to Vox Sanguinis.
To conclude, our study showed that the strategy of using
universal HBsAg and MP-8-NAT together with confirma-
Authors contributions
tory ID-NAT prevents a significant amount of HBV infec-
tions from entering the Taiwan blood supply. However, this All authors listed meet the authorship criteria and con-
comes at a disproportionate increase in cost. We also found tributed to research design, data acquisition, analysis and
interpretation, writing, critical review and approval of the Preparation: Tapiwa Blessing Matanhire. Review: Shi-
manuscript. Here we indicate the specific contributions Woei Lin, Tapiwa Blessing Matanhire. Visualization:
made by each author. Conceptualization/Methodology: Tapiwa Blessing Matanhire. Final approval of version for
Shi-Woei Lin, Tapiwa Blessing Matanhire. Acquisition, submission: Shi-Woei Lin, Tapiwa Blessing Matanhire.
Analysis and/Interpretation of data: Tapiwa Blessing Supervision/Project Administration/Funding Acquisi-
Matanhire, Shi-Woei Lin. Writing-Original Draft tion: Shi Woei Lin.
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Supporting Information
Additional Supporting Information may be found in the online version of this article:
ICER (US$/QALY)
Figure A1 Tornado plot. The chart shows the sensitivity of the parameters around the ICER value of 386 585 between the HBsAg and the NAT strate-
gies.
Societal WP value
$80 000 $160 000 $240 000 $320 000 $6 40,000 $1 280 000 $2 560 000 $5 120 000
No Intervention 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
HBsAg 4009 8074 12 138 16 203 32 462 64 981 130 017 260 091
NAT 3899 7993 12 086 16 179 32 553 65 300 130 794 261 781
HBsAg plus NAT 3848 7953 12 057 16 162 32 581 65 418 131 092 262 441
The number in bold shows the highest net monetary value at that particular WTP threshold value, and the corresponding strategy is optimal at that
threshold.
Supplementary Material R code for the economic evaluation of hepatitis B virus testing strategies