Potential impacts of climate change on water availability

for crops in the Okanagan Basin, British Columbia

D. Neilsen1, C. A. S. Smith1, G. Frank1, W. Koch1, Y. Alila2, W. S. Merritt2,4,
W. G. Taylor3, M. Barton3, J. W. Hall1, and S. J. Cohen5
1Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada, Pacific Agri-Food Research Centre, Summerland, British Columbia
V0H 1Z0; 2Department of Forest Resources Management, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, British
Columbia V6T 1Z4; 3Environment Canada, Pacific and Yukon Region, Vancouver, British Columbia V6C 3S5;
4Integrated Catchment Assessment and Management (ICAM) Centre, Australian National University, Canberra,
5Environment Canada Adaptation & Impacts Research Group, Institute for Resources Environment &
Sustainability (IRES) University of British Columbia 2029 West Mall, Vancouver, British Columbia V6T 1Z2.
Can. J. Soil. Sci. Downloaded from cdnsciencepub.com by 144.48.134.220 on 01/27/22

Received 21 December 2005, accepted 12 July 2006.

Neilsen, D., Smith, C. A. S., Frank, G., Koch, W., Alila, Y., Merritt, W. S., Taylor, W. G., Barton, M., Hall, J. W. and Cohen, S.
J. 2006. Potential impacts of climate change on water availability for crops in the Okanagan Basin, British Columbia. Can.
J. Soil Sci. 86: 921–936. Crop water demand in the Okanagan Basin was determined for 1961 to 1990, 2010 to 2039, 2040 to 2069,
and 2070 to 2099. Daily station temperature data were spatially interpolated to a 1 × 1 km grid and adjusted for elevation. Daily
precipitation data were estimated across four climatic regions. Output from three global climate models (GCM), CGCM2,
CSIROMk2 and HadCM3 was used to create future daily climate. Daily potential evapo-transpiration (grass reference) was esti-
mated from an empirical relationship between Bellani-plate atmometer readings, temperature and extra-terrestrial solar radiation,
and then modified by crop coefficients for all crops except pasture. Depending on GCM, projected water demand increased by
12–20% (2010 to 2039), 24–38% (2040 to 2069) and 40–61% (2070 to 2099). Possible elevated CO2 effects on stomatal conduc-
tance which may reduce water demand were not accounted for. Comparisons with modeled Okanagan Lake inflows indicated that,
For personal use only.

on average, high water demand and low supply scenarios coincided. In one sub-basin, supply and demand thresholds were exceed-
ed 1 yr in 6 (HadCM3) in the 2050s and at least 1 yr in 4 for all GCMs by the 2080s, and existing water supply infrastructure may
be inadequate. Crop growing seasons were defined empirically from growing degree days or threshold temperatures. The growing
season lengthened up to 30–35% leading to higher demand in fall and shortages due to low stream flows.

Key words: Evapotranspiration, growing degree days, growing season, GIS, PRISM

Neilsen, D., Smith, C. A. S., Frank, G., Koch, W., Alila, Y., Merritt, W. S., Taylor, W. G., Barton, M., Hall, J. W. et Cohen, S. J.
2006. Incidence potentielle du changement climatique sur l’eau disponible pour l’agriculture dans le bassin de l’Okanagan,
en Colombie-Britannique. Can. J. Soil Sci. 86: 921–936. Les auteurs ont déterminé la demande d’eau des cultures pour la région
de l’Okanagan de 1961 à 1990, de 2010 à 2039, de 2040 à 2069 et de 2070 à 2099. Pour cela, ils ont interpolé spatialement les
relevés de température quotidiens des stations météorologiques au moyen d’un quadrillage de 1 km x 1 km puis procédé aux cor-
rections en fonction de l’altitude. Les précipitations quotidiennes ont été estimées pour quatre zones climatiques. Les auteurs ont
recouru aux données de trois modèles du climat global (CGCM2, CSIROMk2 et HadCM3) pour simuler les conditions quotidi-
ennes dans l’avenir. Ils ont estimé l’évapotranspiration potentielle quotidienne (en prenant l’herbe comme étalon) grâce à la rela-
tion empirique entre les relevés d’une plaque de Bellani doublée d’un atmomètre et la température ainsi que le rayonnement solaire
extra-terrestre avant de la corriger avec le coefficient de chaque culture, hormis celui des pâturages. Selon le modèle employé, la
demande d’eau prévue s’accroîtra de 12 à 20 % (entre 2010 et 2039), de 24 à 38 % (entre 2040 et 2069) et de 40 à 61 % (entre
2070 et 2099). Les auteurs n’ont pas pris en compte les effets éventuels de la hausse de la concentration de CO2 sur la conduc-
tance des stomates qui pourrait réduire la demande d’eau. Lorsqu’on compare les résultats avec les eaux de captage modélisées du
lac Okanagan, on constate généralement la concordance des scénarios indiquant une demande d’eau plus élevée et des réserves
moindres. Dans un bassin secondaire, les seuils de l’apport et de la demande d’eau seront dépassés une année sur six (HadCM3)
au cours des années 2050 et au moins une année sur quatre pour tous les modèles avant les années 2080. L’infrastructure actuelle
des réserves hydriques pourrait donc s’avérer inadéquate. La période végétative a été définie de manière empirique d’après le nom-
bre de degrés-jours de croissance et les seuils de température. La saison de croissance se prolongera de jusqu’à 30 à 35 %, ce qui
entraînera une hausse de la demande à l’automne et des pénuries, consécutivement au niveau plus bas des cours d’eau.

Mots clés: Evapotranspiration, degrés-jours de croissance, période végétative, SIG, PRISM

Abbreviations: ET, evapotranspiration; GCM, global climate model; GDD, growing degree day; PET, potential evapo-
transpiration; RCM, regional climate model; SRES, emissions scenarios; WUE, water use efficiency

921
 922 CANADIAN JOURNAL OF SOIL SCIENCE
In response to a series of droughts in 2000–2003 in Canada,
there is renewed interest in irrigation not only in the semi-
arid west (Prairie Provinces and interior British Columbia),
but also in more humid regions (Ontario, Quebec, Maritime
provinces and coastal regions of British Columbia).
However, there are limits to irrigation as a solution to
drought, and problems regarding the sustainability of agri-
cultural water supply and maintenance of ecosystem ser-
vices are likely to be exacerbated by population growth and
industrial demand (Postel 2000). In addition, global warm-
ing may affect both agricultural water supply and water
demand, with the magnitude of potential change in water
yield, runoff and evapotranspiration varying by up to ± 50%
under a range of climate change scenarios (Thomson et al.
Can. J. Soil. Sci. Downloaded from cdnsciencepub.com by 144.48.134.220 on 01/27/22
2005)
The Canadian portion of the Okanagan River watershed,
a tributary of the Columbia River, is already experiencing
the pressures and potential conflicts associated with changes
in land use, water supply and demand. Agriculture competes
for water resources with both in-stream ecological require-
ments and a rapidly growing population in a region where
fresh water availability per capita of population is the low-
est in Canada (Statistics Canada 2000). This competition
among the different interests was recognized 25 yr ago
in the Okanagan Basin (Canada-British Columbia
Consultative Board 1974) and continues to be identified in
more recent studies of the Columbia River system (Mote et
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al. 2003; Barnett et al. 2004). Moreover, the great sensitivi-
ty of semi-arid areas to small changes in precipitation
(Frederick and Major 1997) increases regional vulnerability
to potential effects of climate change on water resources.
Such hydrologic responses to changing climates have
already been observed in southern British Columbia
(Whitfield and Cannon 2000). These include variation in the
magnitude and timing of peak and low flows, with potential
concomitant fluctuations in the quality and quantity of avail-
able fish habitat and water availability for dam storage to
meet both urban and agricultural requirements. The aim of
the current study was to examine current and future agricul-
tural water demand and its relationship to supply in the
Okanagan Basin.
There are relatively few integrated studies examining
regional and local aspects of climate change impacts, main-
ly because of the methodological constraints associated with
scaling (Cohen et al. 2006). However, the scale of climate
change scenario output is an important factor when model-
ing impacts on agriculture (Mearns et al. 2003) and hydrol-
ogy (Payne et al. 2004). Despite their increasing
sophistication, Global Climate Models (GCMs) are still lim-
ited in the detail with which they simulate climate and thus
produce a range of results dependent on the model con-
straints and the set of conditions for which a model experi-
ment is run (McAvenay et al. 2001). In mountainous
regions, high resolution scenarios generated by regional cli-
mate models (RCMs) would likely provide more realistic
outcomes than coarse scale scenarios (Giorgi et al. 2001). At
present, however, there is no suitable RCM available for
southern British Columbia to allow dynamical downscaling
from a suite of coarse-scale GCMs to a finer spatial scale
(~45 × 45 km).
Annual variation in future climate has also been simulat-
ed through the use of stochastic weather generator models
(Semenov and Barrow 1997; Qian et al. 2004) and statisti-
cal downscaling such as SDSM (Wilby et al. 2002), but
these techniques are limited to single climate station data.
Procedures that spatially interpolate multiple climate station
data with respect to latitude, longitude and elevation
(Goodale et al. 1998; McKenney et al. 2001) can also be
adapted for use with future climate data. Gridded datasets
interpolated to 10–15 km were used to examine changes in
agro-climatic indices in response to climate change in
Atlantic Canada (Bootsma et al. 2005). In highly complex
terrain, such as the Okanagan Basin, temperature and pre-
cipitation may vary over very short distances and these dif-
ferences may not be captured by interpolation among widely
spaced climate stations. PRISM (parameter-elevation
regressions on independent slopes) was initially developed
to interpolate climate data in mountainous terrain (Daly et
al. 1994). It is an expert system which generates gridded
datasets (~4 × 4 km grid) by interpolating among climate
station datasets, and also includes “facets” that are map ele-
ments defined by topography and terrain with known cli-
mate anomalies (Daly et al. 1994, 2002). PRISM datasets
for 30-yr normal, monthly precipitation and temperature are
available for British Columbia. However, average tempera-
tures in the valley-bottom agricultural areas of the
Okanagan Basin are underestimated by PRISM lapse rate
calculations because the elevation range within each 4 x 4
km grid cell often extends above the 700 m boundary for
irrigated agriculture (Neilsen et al. 2001).
Scenarios of crop water demand require an estimate of
evaporative demand, determined by climate conditions, and
plant response determined by growth stage and water avail-
ability. For annual crops, water demand has been simulated
using potential evapotranspiration (PET) and the water use
efficiency component of growth models (Thomson et al.
2005). This allows the potential effects of CO2 fertilization
on growth (Norby et al. 1999; Ward and Strain 1999) and
potential reduction in transpiration due to lower stomatal
conductance (Morison 1998) to be taken into account.
However, such growth models are not readily available for
woody perennial crops and there have been few studies of
elevated CO2 effects on transpiration losses for tree fruit and
vine crops typical of the Okanagan Basin. One- and two-
year-old peach (Prunus persica L.) and cherry (Prunus
avium L.) seedlings grown in pots had higher carbon assim-
ilation rates under conditions of elevated CO2 than under
current atmospheric concentrations, but no decrease in
stomatal conductance (peach), total water uptake (peach and
cherry) or leaf area (peach) (Centritto et a1. 1999, 2002). A
second approach to assessing crop water demand in irrigat-
ed production systems is to use techniques developed for
irrigation scheduling. Seasonal crop canopy development
determines the response to evaporative demand and in irri-
gated crops, soil moisture is likely not a limitation to
growth. Consequently, irrigation requirements can be esti-
mated modifying estimated evapotranspiration (ET) with a
canopy development factor (Doorenbos and Pruitt 1977;
Allen et al. 1998).
 NEILSEN ET AL. — CLIMATE CHANGE, WATER DEMAND AND SUPPLY IN THE OKANAGAN BASIN
Although climate normals are an important factor in
determining which crop production systems are viable in a
region, extreme weather conditions present a great chal-
lenge to agriculture [Intergovernmental Panel on Climate
Change (IPCC) 2001]. One of the major risks facing
Okanagan agriculture is the occurrence and frequency of
drought. In production systems that are entirely dependent
on irrigation, drought can be defined as the inability to pro-
vide an adequate water supply to grow a crop. There are two
components to drought in this case; high demand and low
supply and the greatest effects will occur when high demand
and low supply are combined. Climate and hydrometric
records can be used to determine the historical frequency of
high water demand combined with low supply, and climate
Can. J. Soil. Sci. Downloaded from cdnsciencepub.com by 144.48.134.220 on 01/27/22
change scenarios, to determine the likelihood of such com-
binations in the future.
In 2002, a study was initiated to develop integrated cli-
mate change and water resource scenarios for the Canadian
component of the Okanagan Basin as a basis for under-
standing some of the challenges facing both suppliers and
consumers of water, currently, and in the future (Cohen et
al. 2004, 2006). This paper reports on the agricultural com-
ponent of this study. The purpose of the study was to (1)
develop methodology to assess water demand for a range of
irrigated crops under current climatic conditions, (2) deter-
mine the potential impacts of a range of future climate sce-
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narios, and (3) assess the risks associated with future supply
and demand scenarios.
METHODOLOGY
Okanagan Basin Study Area
The Okanagan River is 320 km long and joins the
Columbia 130 km south of the Canada/US border. The
Okanagan Basin within Canada (49º00′N to 50º38′N;
118º45′W to 120º15′W) is a 182-km-long valley, with an
area of 8200 km2 (Fig. 1). The region is characterized by
dry, mild winters and hot, dry summers with occasional
influxes of cold, arctic air masses, which may cause severe
damage to chill sensitive crops (Caprio and Quamme 1999,
2002, 2006). Semi-arid conditions are characteristic of the
valley bottom, with mean annual precipitation ranging
from 300 mm in the south to 400 mm in the north.
Land Use
Within the Okanagan Basin, irrigated crops comprise the
valley bottom portion of the agricultural land base, which
includes large areas of non-irrigated upland range.
Agriculture accounts for 75% of consumptive water use in
the Okanagan Basin and crop production is entirely depen-
dent on irrigation. Currently, the warm climate of the
region supports primarily perennial crops (high value tree
fruits and wine-grapes, with the balance in pasture and
forage) with a limited acreage of silage corn planted pri-
marily in the northern-most portion of the Okanagan val-
ley. For high-value horticultural crops, successful
production is an issue of quality rather than quantity (yield)
and management practices are focused on improving qual-
ity attributes.
923
For modeling purposes, a map and related data base of
irrigated crop land was compiled from a number of sources
and incorporated into a GIS using ArcInfoTM. The relative-
ly temporally stable but spatially complex land use patterns
of orchards, vineyards and pasture/forage utilized in the
study were constructed from several land use surveys.
Information on vineyards was taken from Bowen et al.
(2005), tree fruits from Okanagan Valley Tree Fruit
Authority (1995), other crops from BC Ministry of
Sustainable Resource Management (2001) and pasture
lands from the Canada Land Inventory (1966) updated
from current cadastral survey data to eliminate urbanized
areas. Location data for vineyards and tree fruits were rela-
tively detailed. In areas dominated by pasture and silage
corn (i.e., in the North Okanagan), land use boundaries
were ground truthed and re-drawn as necessary. In order to
better examine the interaction of land use, crop water
demand and licensed water allocations, boundaries of water
purveyor districts were digitised and added as a layer with-
in the GIS. Agricultural land use will no doubt evolve over
the 21st century, but this coverage is considered to be rep-
resentative for the Okanagan Basin for the period
1990–2001. The same coverage was also used for the cal-
culation of future water demand scenarios.
Crop Water Demand
Evapotranspiration
For both perennial and annual crops, the development of the
canopy determines response to evaporative demand. In irri-
gated crops, soil moisture is likely not a limitation to growth
and water demand for irrigation can be estimated by apply-
ing a canopy development factor to measured or estimated
ET (Doorenbos and Pruitt 1977). In our study, ET estimates
were based on data from a Bellani plate atmometer.
Limitations in the climate data (only rainfall and temper-
ature data were available from PRISM) meant that simple
relationships were required to estimate potential ET. An
algorithm to estimate daily PET during the growing season
(approximately Apr. 01 to Nov. 01) was developed by com-
paring daily maximum temperature (Tmax) and extraterres-
trial radiation (Ra) at the Summerland CS (climate station,
Environment Canada) to ET estimates from an electronic
Bellani plate atmometer (Etgage Company, Loveland, CO.).
The Etgage instrument is designed to simulate evapotran-
spiration from a grass cover.
PET = –3.26 + 0.210 Tmax + 0.058Ra (1)
(R2 = 0.58, n = 625)
The solar energy (MJ m–2) reaching the top of the atmos-
phere (Ra) was calculated from day of the year and latitude
(Allen et al. 1998). Daily estimates from Eq. 1 for the peri-
od Mar. 15 to Oct. 15 for the years 1994–1998 compared
well (r = 0.90) with estimates of Penman-Monteith ET0 cal-
culated according to Allen et al. (1998) for the same period.
To determine how far the best fit line deviated from a 1:1
relationship a concordance correlation coefficient (cc) was
calculated (Lin 1989), and showed a good fit (cc = 0.87).
Estimates from Eq. 1 were lower than estimates of Penman-
 924 CANADIAN JOURNAL OF SOIL SCIENCE
Monteith ET0. Using the temperature data set created for
each PRISM cell and daily solar radiation values, a daily
PET value was calculated.
PET was modified using crop coefficients (Fig. 2) depen-
dent on canopy development (for tree fruits, y = 7.41364 ×
10–5 x3 – 7.02495 × 10–3 x2 + 0.18311 × – 0.160182; for
wine grapes, y = 2.32205 × 10–5 x3 –3.16841 8 10–3 x2 +
0.098504 × – 0.114903 and for corn, y = –5.926x3 × 10–4 +
0.0141947x2 – 0.0152135x + 0.2254932. For deciduous tree
fruits in semi-arid regions with light to moderate winds, sea-
sonal crop coefficients range from 0.45 to 1.25 with maxi-
mum mid-season values of 1.05 to 1.15 for apricot, peach,
and plum and 1.1 to 1.25 for apple, pear and cherry
(Doorenbos and Pruitt 1977). Wine grapes generally require
Can. J. Soil. Sci. Downloaded from cdnsciencepub.com by 144.48.134.220 on 01/27/22
less water than tree fruits and seasonal crop coefficients
range from 0.5 to 0.85. Seasonal crop coefficients for silage
corn range from about 0.2 to 1.2. Changes in projected tem-
perature from 1961 to 2100 required a crop coefficient curve
that could be adapted to growing seasons of different
lengths. For the purpose of our study, seasonal crop coeffi-
cient curves for tree fruit, grapes and silage corn were
derived from data published by Doorenbos and Pruitt (1977)
for longer season crops. Water demand for pasture and grass
forage was characterised directly by calculated PET values.
Length of the Growing Season
For personal use only.
For perennial crops, water demand is affected by the length
of the growing season, as plant water requirements need to
be met from bud break until dormancy, both of which are
usually determined by a combination of temperature and
photoperiod. The timing of bud break in deciduous trees is
a complex issue, and is related not only to genetic factors
and increases in photoperiod and air temperature in the
spring and fall, but also to the magnitude and duration of
cold temperatures experienced in the previous winter. In
order to establish a date for the start of the growing season
for tree fruits, relationships between growing degree day
(GDD) accumulations and bloom date for a number of tree
species were derived from a set of unpublished data collect-
ed for phenological studies between 1937 and 1964 at the
Pacific Agri-Food Research Centre in Summerland. Date of
full bloom coincides with initiation of the shoot canopy
development in many fruit tree species and hence the
demand for water. Growing degree days (GDD) were deter-
mined from daily mean temperatures:
Daily GDD = Tmean – base T (2)
(if Tmean < base T then GDD = 0)
GDD base 5 and 10°C (GDD5, GDD10) were calculated.
The seasonal accumulation of GDD started in the spring
after 5 consecutive days of GDD > 0 and ended in the fall
when GDD = 0 for 5 consecutive days (Association of
British Columbia Grape Growers 1984).
Regression analysis was used to derive a set of equations
for all tree fruit species based on the start of GDD10 accu-
mulation and date of apple bloom, and the relationships
derived between apple and other species (Table 1). The start
of the growing season in grapes has similarly been related to
the start of GDD10 accumulation (Association of British
Columbia Grape Growers 1984) and for pasture and peren-
nial forages the start of the growing season to the start of
GDD5 accumulation. The end of the growing season for all
perennial crops was determined as the end of accumulation
of GDD5.
The start and end dates of the growing season for silage
corn were derived from historic growing season start dates
of May 01 to 07 and end dates of Sep. 24 to 30 (K. Murphy,
BCMAFF, personal communication) and 1961 to 1990 cli-
mate records at Vernon Coldstream Ranch following the
approach of Bootsma et al. (2005). The 1961 to 1990 mean
daily temperature, for May 01 to 07 was 10.9ºC and the
model growing season for silage corn was defined as the
date when mean daily temperature was >10.9ºC for 3 con-
secutive days. The end of the growing season was defined as
first occurrence when mean daily temperature for 3 consec-
utive days was <11.6ºC (average for Sep. 24–30 between
1961 to 1990) or 0ºC.
Climate Modeling
Global Climate Models
A range of GCM scenarios obtained from Canadian Climate
Impacts (CCIS) website were used in our study, as initially
reported by Taylor and Barton (2004). These included the
Canadian Coupled Global Climate Model (CGCM2), the
Australian model from the Commonwealth Scientific and
Industrial Research Organization (CSIROMk2) and the
UK’s Hadley Centre Model (HadCM3). One of the major
sources of uncertainty in GCMs is the magnitude of future
greenhouse gas emissions and a set of emissions scenarios
has been developed based on global population projections,
economic growth and technological change (Mearns et al.
2001). Two emissions scenarios (SRES) were used for each
model: A2 – high emissions growth rate, with regional eco-
nomic development and a continuously increasing popula-
tion and B2 – lower emissions growth rate, with local
solutions to environmentally sustainable development, and a
moderate rate of population increase. The CGCM2 and
HadCM3 have ensemble outputs constructed from two or
three model runs using the same climate forcing and slight-
ly different initial conditions. Model output includes a range
of surface climate and upper atmosphere circulation vari-
ables, calculated on a 20-min time-step. In order to mini-
mize the confounding effects of natural inter-annual
variability, future climate change outputs are typically
expressed as 30-yr averages. Output from GCM experi-
ments is in gridded data sets with a grid size of several hun-
dred km. The resolution of the CGCM2, for example is 3.75
degrees latitude by 3.75 degrees longitude (approximately
400 × 250 km) in the study area (Flato et al. 2000). In con-
structing regional climate scenarios, it is common practice
to take into account data from several surrounding grid cells.
However, this may be misleading if neighbouring grid cells
contain very different terrain – as in the case of the
Okanagan Basin where adjacent cells contain either ocean
or prairie. Consequently, single grid cell data were used,
which was feasible as the Okanagan Basin was contained
within a single cell for each GCM, albeit with slightly dif-
ferent coordinates.
 NEILSEN ET AL. — CLIMATE CHANGE, WATER DEMAND AND SUPPLY IN THE OKANAGAN BASIN
Table 1. Relationships between bloom date of apple and the start of accumulation of growing degree days base 10C (GDD10) and full bloom dates
of other tree fruit species
Species bloom date (y) Independent variable (x)
Apple Start of GDD10
Apricot Apple full bloom date
Cherry Apple full bloom date
Peach Apple full bloom date
Plum Apple full bloom date
Pear Apple full bloom date
Downscaling
A preliminary study (Taylor and Barton 2004) indicated that
although statistical downscaling (SDSM; Wilby et al. 2002)
was somewhat successful in generating scenarios for daily
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temperatures at Okanagan climate stations, it was not possi-
ble to produce meaningful precipitation scenarios as very
weak correlations were found between surface precipitation
and predictor variables. Consequently, statistical downscal-
ing was discounted as a viable option for both the hydrolo-
gy (Merritt et al. 2006) and crop water demand modeling
components of this project. Instead, a much simpler
approach, the “delta” method was selected, in which daily
1961 to 1990 station data or gridded datasets (baseline) were
perturbed by future changes in the 30-yr averages of month-
ly mean, maximum or minimum temperature and precipita-
For personal use only.
tion derived from GCMs (IPCC 1994). Despite the many
limitations of this method, not the least of which is the
inability to account for changes in climate variability over
time, there are tangible benefits to the approach. These
include the availability of a range of GCM and SRES sce-
nario outputs, which satisfies the need to account for uncer-
tainties associated with GCMs (IPCC 2001); relative ease of
computation for gridded climate data sets; and comparabili-
ty with other studies which have used the delta method
(Lettenmeier et al. 1999; Morrison et al. 2002).
Climate Scenarios
Daily data sets of temperature and precipitation for 30-yr
periods were used to drive both the water supply and
demand models. Baseline (historic) data for the period 1961
to 1990 were taken from Environment Canada climate sta-
tions with long-term records (Fig. 1). Additional high eleva-
tion weather data from a number of sources and low
elevation data from short-term Environment Canada records
were used in the hydrology model (Merritt et al. 2006). To
create future climate scenarios, temperature values were
adjusted by “scenario biases” calculated from the differ-
ences between GCM simulations of historic climate (1961
to1990) and those of three future time periods (2010 to
2039; 2040 to 2069, and 2070 to 2100 described as the
2020s; 2050s and 2080s, respectively; Fig. 3). Precipitation
values were adjusted by the ratios of the simulated future
values to historic values (Fig. 3). Eighteen scenarios of
future “plausible” climates were thus created. To avoid dis-
continuities between biases at monthly boundaries, a
smoothing algorithm was used (Morrison et al. 2002). In
this approach, the discontinuity is redistributed throughout
the whole month, resulting in a smooth, month-to-month
925
Equation R2
Y = 0.71X + 49.04 0.69
Y = 1.02X – 22.03 0.69
Y = 0.98X – 7.97 0.79
Y = 0.90X + 2.50 0.69
Y = 0.91X + 5.56 0.84
Y = 0.94X + 3.21 0.82
transition, while preserving the changes in monthly means
predicted by the GCM. Climate data were then interpolated
spatially but using different techniques for the hydrology
model and the crop water demand model.
Spatial Interpolation of Climate Data for Hydrology
Modeling
As with most mountainous watersheds, there is a low densi-
ty of climate records at high elevations forcing a reliance on
lower elevation stations. Climate datasets for the hydrology
modeling (UBC watershed model) were created by applying
lapse rates (Quick 1995) to station temperature and precipi-
tation data, which were then assigned to pre-determined ele-
vation bands covering the whole basin (Merritt et al. 2006).
The results were used as a basis for water supply and
demand analysis.
Spatial Interpolation of Climate Data for Crop Water
Demand Modeling
Crop water modeling required spatially detailed data, but
only for the valley floor portion of the study area. Gridded
temperature data for crop water demand modeling were cre-
ated from PRISM 30-yr normal (1961 to 1990), monthly
temperature datasets (Daly et al. 1994) and daily weather
records at four stations, Oliver STP, Summerland CS,
Kelowna Airport and Vernon CS which represent four cli-
mate regions (Fig. 1). This required three stages of calcula-
tion: (1) re-sizing of PRISM grid cells from 4 × 4 km to 1 ×
1 km; (2) deriving a monthly bias factor between each
PRISM grid cell and the regional climate station; (3) adjust-
ment of daily temperature data from historic (1961 to 1990)
records and GCM perturbed datasets for each PRISM grid
cell.
The 4 × 4 km gridded PRISM data set was rescaled to a 1
× 1 km grid by calculating local average lapse rates based on
existing grid cell temperature and elevation data. Data from
the 24 nearest neighbour 4 × 4 km cells were pooled to cal-
culate an average lapse rate for the target 4 × 4 km cell.
Temperatures were assigned to the sixteen 1 × 1 km grid
cells created from each target cell using their average eleva-
tion and the target cell lapse rate.
In order to interpolate daily station data to each 1 × 1 km
PRISM grid cell within a climate region (Fig. 1), a PRISM
bias factor was calculated. This factor had two components
and was calculated using the 30-yr normal monthly maxi-
mum and minimum temperatures for the period 1961 to
1990 for each climate station and its associated PRISM grid
cells. The first component was the difference between the
 926 CANADIAN JOURNAL OF SOIL SCIENCE
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Fig. 1. Location of the study area in S. British Columbia, WMO standard climate stations and the four climate zones used for precipitation
estimates in the Okanagan
normal monthly temperatures for each climate station and
the PRISM grid cell in which the climate station was locat-
ed. The second component was the difference between
monthly temperatures at the climate station PRISM grid cell
and all other PRISM cells. Thus each PRISM grid cell had
a unique monthly bias factor which was the sum of these
two components. For future climate scenarios, the monthly
scenario bias was added to each PRISM cell bias factor
before smoothing. To avoid discontinuities at monthly
boundaries, the smoothing algorithm described previously
was used (Morrison et al. 2002).
Climate station daily temperature data were then adjusted
by the PRISM cell bias factor for each PRISM grid cell to
create daily gridded data sets. Thus a 30-yr daily climate
record was synthesized for each PRISM grid cell for both
1961 to 1990 and, with the addition of monthly GCM sce-
nario bias factors, for periods centred on the 2020s, 2050s
and 2080s.
Although 4 × 4 km PRISM gridded datasets for 30-yr nor-
mal precipitation values are available, spatial rescaling of
precipitation data to a 1 × 1 km grid and rescaling to a daily
time step were not possible. Consequently, daily precipita-
tion for the four representative Environment Canada climate
stations with long-term records: Vernon Coldstream/CS,
Kelowna Airport, Summerland CS and Oliver STP were
used to estimate precipitation in each of the four climate
regions (Fig. 1). These were modified by monthly GCM
scenario biases as described above. Thus each 1 × 1 km
PRISM grid cell within a region had the same daily precip-
itation record.
Crop Water Demand Modeling
ARC Macro Language programming within ArcInfoTM was
used to assemble PRISM gridded climate scenario output
data and intersect it with the agricultural land use coverage.
This procedure created a data base that described climatic
conditions, over the year, for each unique land unit (poly-
gon). The centroids of latitude and longitude for each poly-
gon were added to the data base in order to calculate solar
radiation. Crop water demand at a daily time-step was cal-
culated, as described above, for each land use polygon with
output of daily, monthly, seasonal or annual values of PET,
GDD5 and GDD10 and crop water use. Polygon data were
summed to give results at different spatial resolutions such
as irrigation district, sub-watershed or basin level, for both
historic and future climates.
Risk Analysis – Comparisons between Supply
and Demand
Estimates of water supply derived from the UBC watershed
model (Quick 1995) parameterized for the Okanagan Basin
(Merritt et al. 2006) were used for supply/demand compar-
 NEILSEN ET AL. — CLIMATE CHANGE, WATER DEMAND AND SUPPLY IN THE OKANAGAN BASIN
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Fig. 2. Generalised, seasonal crop coefficients (Kc).
isons. In the hydrology model, precipitation form was deter-
mined by temperature. Accumulation of snow pack was
based on temperature and elevation and snowmelt was mod-
eled using an energy balance (Quick 1995). Further details
of the methodology associated with the hydrology modeling
are reported in Quick (1995) and Merritt et al. (2006). There
were insufficient data for a whole basin water budget to be
For personal use only.
constructed; thus, comparisons were made between mod-
eled basin-wide crop water demand estimates and modeled
Okanagan Lake unregulated inflow.
In a case study of the Trout Creek watershed, the second
largest tributary of Okanagan Lake, estimated supply was
compared with crop water demand within the Municipality
of Summerland under the range of climate change scenarios
described previously. Jones (2000) examined the risk of cli-
mate change to agricultural viability in an irrigated produc-
tion system in South Australia as the probability of
exceeding known water supply thresholds. A similar
approach was used in the current study where risk was
determined as the probability of exceeding thresholds asso-
ciated with licensed limits on demand and hydrological lim-
its on supply under historic and future climates.
RESULTS AND DISCUSSION
Model Testing
The ET component of the crop water demand model is more
sensitive to temperature than solar radiation, which may
lead to under-estimation of water demand at the beginning
and end of the growing season and over-estimation during
the period of highest evaporative demand, mid-season.
Model validity was assessed by comparing historic modeled
demand to measured irrigation from 1977 to 2003 for the
Municipality of Summerland (Fig. 4). There was a down-
ward trend in irrigation consumption from 1977 to the pre-
sent. The relationship between modeled demand and
measured consumption was much closer between 1990 and
2003 (r = 0.69; P <0.05) than before 1990 (r = 0.38; NS).
Differences between modeled and measured demand ranged
between 1.5 and 7.0 m3 106 (average = 4.0) before 1990 and
927
between –0.7 and 2.7 m3 106 after 1990. Differences were
likely due to a reduction in the area of irrigated land and also
to changes in irrigation technology from, chronologically,
less efficient movable irrigation pipes and overhead sprin-
klers to under-tree sprinklers to micro irrigation systems. In
a survey undertaken in 2000–2001, around 30% of apple
orchards in the South Okanagan used micro-irrigation sys-
tems. The decline in measured consumption in 2003 relative
to 2002 was likely the result of drought restrictions, early
irrigation shutoff and efforts to conserve water after Aug. 1.
Basin-wide Estimates of Demand
In contrast to many annual crops that have fixed length
growing seasons, most temperate perennial crops, given
adequate nutrition and water, continue to grow until limited
by temperature, photo-period or both. Consequently,
demand for water has two components: length of the grow-
ing season and evaporative demand. Modeled growing sea-
son length ranged between 180 and 219 d in the1960 to 1990
period and increased to a high of 315 d for 2080s
CSIROMk2 A2 scenarios, which represented a 45%
increase (Fig. 5a). Much smaller increases were identified
for CGCM2 and HadCM3 scenarios. In contrast HadCM3
demonstrated the greatest increases in seasonal ET esti-
mates, while more moderate changes were projected for
GCM2 and CSIROMk2 scenarios (Fig. 5b). Both growing
season and ET responses are consistent with the monthly
temperature scaling factors for the GCM scenarios (Fig. 3).
Temperature scaling factors for CSIROMk2 were higher at
the beginning of the season than those of the other models
resulting in an earlier start to the growing season. HadCM3
temperature scaling factors were high during July, August
and September resulting in high evaporative demand.
Estimated crop water demand for 1961 to 1990 ranged
between 153 and 224 m3 106. All models showed an
increase in annual crop water demand over the next 100 yr
up to a maximum of 346 m3 106 (Fig. 6a). The magnitude of
the change varied both over time and between GCMs and
emission scenarios, ranging from 12 to 61% on average. The
 928 CANADIAN JOURNAL OF SOIL SCIENCE
Temperature scaling factor
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Precipitation scaling factor
For personal use only.
Fig. 3. Average maximum daily temperature and monthly precipitation scaling factors generated from GCM output for two emissions sce-
narios (A2, B2) and three future time slices.
greatest increases occurred under the HadCM3 model, and
the least under the CGCM2 model scenarios with the
CSIROMk2 being intermediate. Under the high emissions
scenario (A2) there was little difference between scenarios
for CGCM2 and CSIROMk2, which demonstrated a 12%
increase between historic (1960–1991) and 2020s crop
water demand and a 24% and 40–48% increase for 2050s
and 2080s, respectively. For the HadCM3 model, demand
increased by 20% in the 2020s, 38% in the 2050s and 61%
in the 2080s. The results reflect the effects of temperature on
both ET (Fig. 5b) and growing season length (Fig. 5a). The
effects of increased mid-season ET estimates in response to
high temperature scaling factors on crop water demand are
compounded when the canopy is fully developed (Fig. 2).
The high estimates of demand with the HadCM3 scenarios
are likely unrealistic as temperature increases as high as
11°C were projected in August during the 2080s (Fig. 3).
Under low emission scenarios (B2), modeled crop water
demand was similar to the A2 scenarios for the 2020s and
2050s time-slices, but lower by the end of the century. The
lack of difference between high and low emissions growth
rate scenarios in the earlier part of the century may be due
to adjustment to CO2 already present in the atmosphere
from current emissions or possibly to the effect of different
emissions scenarios for CO2 and SO2 . Under A2 scenarios,
the warming expected under high CO2 emissions is offset by
the cooling caused by the accompanying high SO2 emis-
sions (Albritton and Miera Filho 2001). Under B2 scenarios,
lower CO2 and SO2 are projected to lead to a larger warm-
ing in the short term.
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Fig. 4. Comparison between metered values and model estimates
of total crop water use for the District of Summerland.
Basin Supply
The system of water supply for irrigation within the
Okanagan Basin is fragmented. There are approximately
1200 water licensees of which 10 are large (i.e., provide 2 to
25% of total allocation each), 7 medium (0.5 to 1% of total
allocation each) and 34 small (< 0.5% of total allocation
each) publicly owned water purveyors, as well as 3 large
For personal use only.
and 1147 small, private ones. The three major sources of
water are (1) the Okanagan River and lake-system main
stem, (2) tributary streams, and (3) groundwater. The major-
ity of water supply for irrigation (75%) comes from tribu-
tary streams via headwater diversions and high elevation,
in-stream storage basins (Agrodev Canada Inc. 1994). The
remainder is pumped from lakes, streams and groundwater.
An estimate of how climate change scenarios might affect
basin water supply can be derived from modeled Okanagan
Lake inflows (Merritt et al. 2006). Inflows from tributaries
were modeled as unregulated streams and do not account for
withdrawals, storage, surface evaporation from reservoirs
and lakes or surface-groundwater interactions. Modeled
flows are an over-estimate of the actual volumes entering
Okanagan Lake and cannot be used to calculate a water bal-
ance. Average net annual inflow into Okanagan Lake is esti-
mated at 450–500 m3 106 (B. Symonds, BCMWLAP, pers.
commun.). Average modeled naturalized inflow (Merritt et
al. 2006) with no restrictions, withdrawals or surface evap-
oration for the 1961 to 1990 period, was 840.3 m3 106 and
this remained constant or declined slightly for 2020 scenar-
ios (86–105%), and decreased for 2050s scenarios to
between 80 and 93% of current inflow and for 2080s sce-
narios to around 69–84% of current inflow (Fig. 6b).
A comparison of modeled crop water demand (Fig. 6a)
and Okanagan Lake inflows (Fig. 6b) indicates that climate
scenarios that lead to increased demand for irrigation also
lead to decreased supply, exacerbating the vulnerability of
all water users. Average modeled demand for the 1961
to1990 period (183 m3 106) was less than the current total
licensed allocation for irrigation (323.7 m3 106) estimated
from the Land and Water BC water licence data base. The
agricultural demand for water projected over this century
929
under climate change scenarios (Fig. 6a) ranged from 178 to
346 m3 106. Unless increased demand is accompanied by an
increase in supply in response to changing climates, new
water allocation for agriculture seems unlikely.
Adaptation
The ability of water purveyors to respond to increased
demands will be tested both by the need to supply water to
meet increased peak requirements and also to provide water
earlier and later in the growing season. Both may require
large-scale engineering solutions either to supply higher
flow rates or to increase water storage. Response from farm-
ers may be to reduce demand by changing crop type and
water management. The effect of crop on potential water
demand was modeled for a hypothetical hectare of land sit-
uated at the Summerland CS climate station (Fig. 7). From
model predictions for the 1961 to 1990 historic period, the
largest total amount of water was required for pasture and
the least for grapes (44% of the amount needed for pasture).
Apple and corn required approximately 78% of the amount
needed for pasture, and cherry slightly more (87%). The low
irrigation demand for grapes resulted from a shorter grow-
ing season and lower crop requirements during peak ET. In
contrast, pasture and forage, being cooler season crops had
a longer growing season with high demand. Tree fruits had
a shorter growing season than pasture, but peak demand was
higher. Corn growing season length is determined by the
hybrid planted and within limits may be extended to accom-
modate longer season varieties in the future, but is unlikely
to be as long as the extended seasons projected for perenni-
al crops.
Under conditions of future water shortage, crop type may
have a bearing on potential adaptation strategies. Some
crops, e.g., row crops, tree fruits and grapes are suitable for
efficient micro-irrigation systems, which can lead to a con-
siderable reduction in water use (Van der Gulik 1999). The
most efficient irrigation method currently available for pas-
ture/forages is the drop tube pivot system. However, such
systems require level terrain to function effectively and may
not be suitable for application in some parts of the
Okanagan Basin. Water savings in fruit and row crops may
also be made through the use of mulches to reduce evapora-
tion from the soil surface (Neilsen et al. 2003) and deficit
irrigation practices (Loveys et al. 2004). Savings can also be
made for all crops if irrigation is scheduled to meet demand
(Allen et al. 1998; Neilsen and Neilsen 2002; Van der Gulik
1989, 1999).
Longer-term solutions to reduced water availability may
include improvements in crop water use efficiency (WUE)
through the development of new cultivars (Tuberosa 2004).
Current work is largely aimed at understanding the genetics
of WUE for major crops such as wheat, rice, barley, corn,
cotton, soybean (Condon et al. 2004; Tuberosa 2004)
although some progress has also been made for high value
horticultural crops (Glen et al. 2006).
Summerland/Trout Creek Case Study
Community vulnerability to the effects of drought is deter-
mined by limitations in the water supply system, both in
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Fig. 5. Magnitude and variability of estimated (a) growing season length and (b) evapotranspiration for historic and future climate data. Each
box represents 30 years of data. Each box plot shows the median, interquartile range, 10th and 90th percentiles (bars on whiskers) and out-
liers.
terms of water withdrawal rights and the ability to store
water. Communities in which agriculture is the dominant
economic activity may be inherently more vulnerable to
drought than those with a more diverse tax and income base.
Future Water Demand and Supply
Model output for crop water demand was compared with an
irrigation demand threshold of 10 m3 106, based on peak
measured consumption since 1990 (Fig. 8). In all scenarios
demand increased over time compared with historic demand
(1961 to 1990). Demand for 1991–2003, based on observed
climate data, was as high as that projected for CGCM2 and
CSIROMk2 for the 2020s. Patterns of variability from year
to year were similar, but not identical for modeled crop
water demand derived from historical data and GCM sce-
narios. This is expected given that each year is perturbed by
a constant value within a given scenario time-slice. The
number of years when the demand threshold might be
exceeded increased over time, to around 18/30 yr by the
2080s for CGCM2-A2 s, 28/30 for CSIROMk2-A2 and
30/30 for HadCM3-A2 scenarios. For the lower emissions
scenarios (B2), differences in response compared with the
high emissions scenarios (A2) only became evident by the
end of the century.
Water supply estimates were derived from annual, model
outputs for Trout Creek (Merritt et al. 2006). From histori-
cal patterns, average annual mean unrestricted flow rate in
Trout Creek has previously been estimated as 2.65 m3 s–1
(Northwest Hydraulic Consultants 2001). Modeled annual
unrestricted flow rate at the mouth of Trout Creek, using the
UBC watershed model, averaged 2.67 m3 s–1 for the period
1961 to 1990. Similar, unrestricted flows were projected for
the 2020s in CGCM2 scenarios and the HadCM3-A2 sce-
nario, but were slightly higher in the HadCM3-B2 scenario
and were lower in CSIROmk2 scenarios. Reductions in flow
were projected for the 2050s and 2080s in all model scenar-
ios. Earlier runoff and lower base flows associated with
reduced snow pack and an early spring melt were found for
all climate change scenarios, although hydrograph shapes
differed (Merritt et al. 2006). This corroborates the findings
of other climate change studies on the hydrology of the
Columbia system (Hamlet and Lettenmeir 1999; Mote et al.
2003). Izzauralde et al. (2003) suggested that decreases in
transpiration caused by the effects of elevated CO2 on plant
stomatal conductance may lead to an overall increase in
Columbia basin water supply. However, Thomson et al.
(2005) considered that this effect may be offset by increased
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Fig. 6. Magnitude and variability of estimated (a) crop water demand for the Okanagan Basin and (b) modeled inflow into Okanagan Lake
for historic and future climate data. Each box in (a) represents 30 yr of data, and in (b) represents 22 yr derived from historic climate data
1969 to 1990. Each box plot shows the median, interquartile range,10th and 90th percentiles (bars on whiskers) and outliers.

plant growth in the semi-arid portions of the Columbia due
to higher rainfall.
To maintain ecosystem function, a drought threshold of
30.3 m3 106 (36% of average annual flow) has been pro-
posed for Trout Creek (Associated Engineering 1997). Total
annual unrestricted flow volumes were calculated for 1961
to 1990, 1991 to 2003 and each of the GCM scenarios (Fig.
8). Between 1961 and 1990, there were three occurrences of
modeled, unrestricted flow lower than the drought thresh-
old. For high emissions (A2) scenarios, the frequency of
drought increased to 13–20% of years by the 2020s;
23–40% by the 2050s and 33–76% by the 2080s. The
CSIROMk2 model provided the driest A2 scenarios where-
as CGCM2-A2 and HadCM3-A2 were relatively similar
(Fig. 8). For low emissions (B2) scenarios, the three GCMs
produced fewer extreme events than under A2 scenarios,
with the exception of CSIROMk2-B2 scenarios, which pro-
duced more drought years in the 2020s.
Risk Assessment
The effects of low supply are likely to be exacerbated if cou-
pled with high demand (Fig. 8). “Worst case” scenarios
occur when the irrigation demand threshold and stream
drought threshold are exceeded. The lowest risk of not being
able to meet demand occurs in the lower right hand quadrant
of the diagrams. The majority of points fell within this quad-
rant for historic, 2020s and 2050s scenarios, but, with
exception of CGCM2-B2, the majority of points fell outside
of this quadrant for the 2080s data. The highest risk is asso-
ciated with points found in the upper left hand quadrant of
the diagrams (Fig. 8). There were no instances of high risk
in the historic (1961 to 1990) data. High emissions (A2) sce-
narios resulted in a greater frequency of high risk outcomes
for HadCM3 in the 2050s (1 yr in 6) and for all GCMs by
the 2080s (1 yr in 4 to 1 yr in 2). Incidence of “high risk”
response for low emissions scenarios was less than under
high emissions.
The increased demand and low supply scenarios outlined
above suggest that the existing infrastructure will be inade-
quate, even if conservation measures could save 30–40% of
water currently used. The ability of the water system to sup-
ply demand in the future will be dependent on the availabil-
ity of effective water storage which is presently around 9.1
 932 CANADIAN JOURNAL OF SOIL SCIENCE
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Fig. 7. Monthly average crop water demand requirements for pasture, apple, cherry grape, silage corn and precipitation (1961 to 1990) at
Summerland CS climate station.
m3 106. Recent data suggest that years of high demand and
early snow melt result in early use of stored water and
potential water shortages. Between 1974 and 2003, early use
of stored water (before Jul. 01) occurred six times, five of
them since 1992 (Neilsen et al. 2004).
There are some limitations to the estimates of crop water
demand presented here. Precipitation modeling was not as
For personal use only.
well coupled to topography as temperature modeling. Future
efforts should attempt to remedy this despite the high degree
of uncertainty associated with precipitation estimates from
GCMs (Albritton and Miera Filho 2001), as there is an on-
going need to provide high-resolution spatial climate data
for current day hydrology, water demand, crop growth and
pest management models. This will require the development
of improved spatial interpolation techniques and for future
climates, improved downscaling, as suggested by Bootsma
et al. (2005). The relatively simple downscaling from GCM
to climate station and gridded climate data sets used in this
study, although practical for such complex terrain, requires
improvement if further examination of the effects of short-
and long-term climate change and variability on other land-
scape-sensitive agro-climatic processes are to be assessed.
A second limitation is the possible effect of elevated CO2
on stomatal conductance, resulting in reduced transpiration
and demand for water (Drake et al. 1997). Although there is
little direct, experimental evidence that fruit trees display
reduced transpiration in response to elevated CO2 (Centritto
et al. 1999, 2002), there is considerable evidence that grass-
es and other annual C3 crops transpire less in elevated CO2
atmospheres (Morison 2001). Such reductions in water
demand may be as high as 20–30%, although a study of
potential effects of climate change on US agriculture deter-
mined that un-irrigated field crops (corn, wheat, alfalfa)
grown in the Pacific Northwest and western mountainous
regions had relatively low decreases in transpiration by the
end of the current century (approximately 8%) compared
with other regions (Izaurralde et al. 2003). Morison (2001)
cautioned that the many attempts to derive a “typical” value
for the reduction in stomatal conductance in response to ele-
vated CO2 atmospheres have varied widely, with an overall
range of 0–70%. Meta analysis of data from many experi-
ments has suggested that reduction in stomatal conductance
for woody species may range from 11% (Curtis and Wang
1998) to 21% (Medlyn at al. 2001). Given that the projected
increases in water demand by the 2080s ranged between 40
and 60%, even a 20–30% decrease in transpiration due to
elevated CO2 would still leave the requirement for a sub-
stantial quantity of extra water to supply crop demand com-
pared with current conditions.
A third limitation is that we treated land as constant over
time, whereas it is expected both the mix of crop types and
the area of crop lands will change as a result of warmer win-
ters and extended growing seasons. However, such opportu-
nities will be modified by population growth, market
economics, government policies and new technologies.
CONCLUSIONS
A range of plausible climate outcomes from Global Climate
Models and emissions scenarios resulted in increases for
basin water demand from 12 to 20% in the 2020s, 24 to 38%
in the 2050s to 40 to 61% in the 2080s. The beneficial
effects of low emissions scenarios were not seen until the
end of the century. However, water availability may become
problematic.
All models projected increases in peak demand and
increases in demand at each end of the growing season.
Subtle differences in seasonal crop water demand projec-
tions were due to both variability associated with GCMs and
emissions scenarios and with crop profile. The growing sea-
son was potentially lengthened by 30–35% at the end of the
century for all crops and was longest for pasture/forage and
shortest for grapes. The combination of long growing season
and responsiveness to changes in potential ET caused pas-
ture/forage crops to have the highest demand for water.
Increases in potential ET are likely more important to the
total increase in crop water demand than length of the grow-
ing season, but high demand in the fall may be more prob-
lematic in terms of water supply, particularly if coupled with
projected low stream flows. Comparisons with modeled
Okanagan Lake inflows for the same set of scenarios, sug-
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Fig. 8. Relationship between total annual flow in Trout Creek and crop water demand in Summerland modeled from historic climate data
1961 to 1990 (■) 1991–2003 (❍) and for 30-yr periods centred on 2020s (■), 2050s (■) and 2080s () in response to climate change sce-
narios. Vertical dashed line is the drought threshold. Solid horizontal line is the maximum annual demand.

gested that scenarios with high demand tended to be those
with low supply.
From a detailed case study of one sub-basin (Trout
Creek), which has a predominantly agricultural water
demand, it is apparent that the existing water infrastructure,
which provides around 9.1 m3 106 of effective storage, will
be unable to meet demands in years of extreme future cli-
mate. The frequency with which modeled crop water
demand exceeded the current irrigation demand threshold of
10.1 m3 106, increased over the century in response to all
climate change scenarios. There was also increased frequen-
cy of drought (defined as 36% of total annual flow) in
response to climate change scenarios. The highest risk to the
Trout Creek system would occur if high demand years coin-
cided with low supply years. High emissions (A2) scenarios
resulted in a high frequency of high risk outcomes for
HadCM3 in the 2050s (1 yr in 6) and for all GCMs by the
2080s (1 yr in 4 to 1 yr in 2). Incidence of “high risk”
response for low emissions (B2) scenarios was less than
under high emissions. Adaptation by producers to increased
demand may include adoption of conservation irrigation
practices and, where appropriate, planned deficit irrigation.
 934 CANADIAN JOURNAL OF SOIL SCIENCE
There are some limitations to the findings of this study.
Projected increases in demand may be lower than modeled
if the elevated concentrations of atmospheric CO2, which
are driving global warming, also lead to 20–30% reduction
of in plant transpiration. Limitations in climate interpolation
suggest that future studies should focus on improved tech-
niques for downscaling and interpolating climate variables
in the highly complex terrain typical of British Columbia.
Land use patterns were treated as constant, but will
undoubtedly change over time in response to climate, com-
petition from other sectors and market pressures.
ACKNOWLEDGMENTS
This project was part of a larger, collaborative inter-disci-
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plinary study examining the water resources of the
Okanagan Basin (http://www.ires.ubc) , for which funding
was supplied by the Climate Change Action Fund, Natural
Resources Canada (Project A463/433). Hydrometric and
climate data were supplied by Environment Canada. Data
from the SRES model runs were obtained from the
Canadian Climate Impacts Scenarios (CICS) project website
(http://www.cics.uvic.ca/scenarios/index.cgi). The technical
assistance of Dave Hutchinson (Environment Canada,
Pacific and Yukon Region) in development of model code
and advice provided by Elaine Barrow (CICS) on model
selection and downscaling and Dr. Chris Daly (Oregon State
For personal use only.
University) on rescaling PRISM are gratefully acknowledged.
Agrodev Canada Inc. 1994. Water supply and management issues
affecting the BC tree fruit industry. Final Report. Okanagan Valley
Tree Fruit Authority, Summerland, BC. 150 pp.
Albritton, D. L. and Meira Filho, L. G. 2001. Technical summa-
ry. Climate Change 2001: The Scientific Basis. Contribution of
Working Group I to the Third Assessment Report of the Inter-gov-
ernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press,
Cambridge, UK and New York, NY. 64 pp.
Allen, R. G., Pereira, L. S., Raes, D. and Smith, M. 1998. Crop
evapotranspiration. Guidelines for computing crop water require-
ments. FAO Irrigation and Drainage Paper 56. United Nations
Food and Agriculture Organization, Rome, Italy. 100 pp.
Associated Engineering. 1997. Water system master plan.
Unpublished report to the District of Summerland, BC. 40 pp.
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