Monarch Migration

Al Pagar, Helen Wu, Daniel Zhang, Ivan Zheng

North Carolina School of Science and Mathematics

Dr. Quinlan
 Introduction

The monarch butterfly is an insect known for making an annual migration during autumn,

usually during the months of August to December. Since butterflies are cold-blooded creatures,

they are extremely sensitive to temperature changes and don’t adapt to the cold very well. As a

result, the butterflies migrate from north to south to avoid the cold winters (Carlos). However,

climate change is threatening to change the journey of monarch butterflies. As time goes on and

the planet heats up, the winters are gradually becoming less cold and are starting much later than

before (NASA). These changes in climate are highly likely to have an impact on the timings of

butterfly migration, which would mean a significant change to their phenology if the cycle

continues (Nunez). We hypothesize that butterfly migration has and will be beginning later and

later as the years go on.

Methods

We mapped out the general trend of migration of the butterflies by using a dataset with

the sightings and locations of the butterflies during peak migration season. That dataset was

imported into Google Sheets, where the dates were broken down into Julien days and years to

better correspond with the latitudes. From there, we exported the data to Excel to create a chart

to model the locations of butterflies during different times of the years (Figure 1). From that

chart, we created another with the linear fit of each year to better show the change of location in

relation to time over the years (Figure 2). Finally, we wanted to see the overall change in latitude

over the years. Therefore, we focused primarily on one small range of Julien days and found the

maximum and minimum latitudes found over the 18 years for those specific days (Table 1).
 Results and Discussion

Figure 1: A scatter plot showing the relationship between Julien Days (Fall and Winter) and

Latitude. Each color represents a different year from 2000 to 2018.

As shown in Figure 1, there is an overall negative correlation between latitude and Julien

days, regardless of the year. This indicates that monarch butterflies migrate from north to south

as the days become colder. To better understand the differences between each year, the linear fit

for each year was calculated and added to the chart below.

Figure 2: A graph with linear regression lines, showing the relationship between Julien Days

(Fall and Winter) and Latitude. Each color represents a different year from 2000 to 2018, with

darker colors being more recent years.

As indicated by the figures, the journey for monarch butterflies seems to generally start later as

the years go on. This could be a high indication that winters are overall becoming warmer. In

recent years, when the butterflies would normally leave in previous ones because of the cold

temperatures, the temperature is no longer low enough for butterflies to leave. As a result, they

are only leaving when the temperatures get even lower, which only happens later on in the

months.

The general trend of migration determined from the linear chart is that the butterflies

would start and end their journeys at higher latitudes as the years went on. We concluded that

due to climate change, the northern temperatures would generally be warmer. As a result, the

butterflies wouldn’t travel as further south as they usually would. In order to more effectively see

the disparity in latitude, we created a table with the maximum and minimum starting latitudes

over the 18 years (Table 1).

Maximum Starting Minimum Starting Change in Latitude Calculated Change

Latitude (2013) Latitude (2004) (degrees) in Distance (miles)
(degrees) (degrees)

48.962 38.927 10.035 692.4

Table 1: a table with starting latitudes, the change in latitude and the calculated distance in miles

At 240 Julien Days, there’s been about a 10.035 degree change in latitude over 9 years.

When calculated using online conversion numbers, we found that that disparity is about 692.4

miles shifted north. This is highly problematic because this huge difference in latitude could

cause a detrimental effect on southern United States ecosystems that have had butterflies as a

part of the food web during winter. It could also affect ecosystems that aren’t used to holding as

many monarch butterflies, especially after the butterflies have settled in the more northern areas.

It’s also important to note that this large change happened in about a decade; if this trend
continues for the next ten years, the migration of butterflies will look completely different from

how it is even now. The dangers of the changed migration pattern are great because they have

only caused the population of monarch butterflies to decrease. To begin with, the trees that

butterflies tend to rest or reside in have experienced a significant loss in population due to

humans and climate change (UN Environmental Program).

Conclusion

Climate change has affected the journey of the butterfly migration, and this could result

in negative consequences in ecosystems that need monarch butterflies. As a result, the main

focus for solving the disparity of movement for butterflies should be mitigating climate change.

Since greenhouse gasses, particularly carbon dioxide, seem to be one of the main causes of

climate change, it’s vital that renewable energy technologies are used to reduce carbon emissions

into the atmosphere. Individually, people can choose to protest and contact local legislation to

advocate for better regulated environmental policies. They can also reduce overall energy usage

and reduce their own carbon footprint. If these measures are taken at a global level, then it is

possible that climate change can be slowed or even stopped, and the monarch butterflies can

safely go back to their original migration paths.

 References

Carlos. (2022, March 21). Do butterflies migrate? where do they go? Learn About Nature.

Retrieved March 24, 2022, from

https://www.learnaboutnature.com/insects/butterflies/do-butterflies-migrate/#:~:text=Mo

narch%20butterflies%20are%20not%20able,turns%20cold%20sooner%20than%20that

NASA. (2021, August 26). The effects of climate change. NASA. Retrieved March 24, 2022,

from https://climate.nasa.gov/effects/

Nunez, C. (2021, May 3). Global warming solutions. Environment. Retrieved March 24, 2022,

from

https://www.nationalgeographic.com/environment/article/global-warming-solutions#:~:te

xt=For%20example%2C%20improvements%20to%20energy,trapping%20heat%20on%2

0the%20planet

UN Environmental Program. (n.d.). Monarch Butterflies & Climate Change - CMS.

Retrieved March 24, 2022, from

https://www.cms.int/sites/default/files/publication/fact_sheet_monarch_butterfly_climate

_change.pdf